Data/hora: 03/06/2024 06:40:02

Provedor de dados: | 31
País: | United States
Título: | Dynamics of Biofuel Stock Prices: A Bayesian Approach
Autores: | Du,   Xiaodong; Hayes,   Dermot J.; Yu,   Cindy L.
Data: | 2009-09-28
Ano: | 2009
Palavras-chave: | Jumps; Rational learning; Stochastic volatility; Technological innovation.; Demand and Price Analysis; Financial Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Resumo: | We use Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to investigate the linkage between the volatility of ethanol security prices and the uncertainty surrounding the profitability of ethanol production and the price variations of non-ethanol energy securities. The joint evolution of return and volatility is modeled as a stochastic process that incorporates jumps in both return and volatility. While a strong and significant correlation is found between the volatility of ethanol securities and profit uncertainty from June 2005 to July 2008, the dynamic pattern of ethanol stock volatility is strikingly similar to that of the S&amp;P 500 energy sector index in the more recent period. Our evidence lends support to the findings in the literature on rational learning from uncertainty in determining the equity price and volatility during the adoption and development of a technological innovation.
Tipo: | Working or Discussion Paper
Idioma: | Inglês
Identificador: | http://purl.umn.edu/53825

Relação:

Iowa State University&gt;Center for Agricultural and Rural Development&gt;CARD Working Paper Series

CARD Working Paper

09-WP 498

Formato: | 29