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| Provedor de dados: |
Agronomy
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| País: |
Brazil
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| Título: |
Mathematical modeling and simulation of hourly precipitation through rectangular pulses - doi: 10.4025/actasciagron.v33i4.7052
Mathematical modeling and simulation of hourly precipitation through rectangular pulses - doi: 10.4025/actasciagron.v33i4.7052
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| Autores: |
Uggioni, Edison; Universidade do Extremo Sul Catarinense
Back, Álvaro José; Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária e Extensão Rural de Santa Catarina
Vieira, Hamilton Justino; Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária e Extensão Rural de Santa Catarina
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| Data: |
2011-09-29
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| Ano: |
2011
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| Palavras-chave: |
5.03.02.00-0 Hydrology
Rainfall
Simulation
Probability
Stochastic models engenharia de Água e Solo Hydrology
Rainfall
Simulation
Probability
Stochastic models
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| Resumo: |
The recorded historical series of precipitation are usually available for short periods of time and with many failures. The use of mathematical modeling to simulate rainfall is a tool used to circumvent this problem and to simulate the operation of water systems in different scenarios. The present study applies mathematical modeling to the hourly pluviometric precipitation data simulation. A pluviographical data set from October 1980 to December 2007 was used in the study. Precipitation data sets were obtained through daily pluviometric digitalization from the Meteorologic Station of Epagri at Urussanga, in southern Santa Catarina, Brazil (latitude 28º 31’ S and longitude 48º 19’ W). To simulate the hourly rain series, the stochastic model was modified based on the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulses model with six parameters. Those parameters were fitted by minimizing a function related to the analytical expressions that define the average, variance, and autocorrelation coefficient at lag 1 and the probability of a dry period related to the estimated values from the observed data. Ten series were simulated for 100 years of data. Data analyses and results showed that fitting Bartlett-Lewis model parameters makes it possible to simulate hourly rainfall while preserving precipitation statistical properties at several temporal aggregation levels. In general, the probability of dry periods tended to be overestimated.
The recorded historical series of precipitation are usually available for short periods of time and with many failures. The use of mathematical modeling to simulate rainfall is a tool used to circumvent this problem and to simulate the operation of water systems in different scenarios. The present study applies mathematical modeling to the hourly pluviometric precipitation data simulation. A pluviographical data set from October 1980 to December 2007 was used in the study. Precipitation data sets were obtained through daily pluviometric digitalization from the Meteorologic Station of Epagri at Urussanga, in southern Santa Catarina, Brazil (latitude 28º 31’ S and longitude 48º 19’ W). To simulate the hourly rain series, the stochastic model was modified based on the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulses model with six parameters. Those parameters were fitted by minimizing a function related to the analytical expressions that define the average, variance, and autocorrelation coefficient at lag 1 and the probability of a dry period related to the estimated values from the observed data. Ten series were simulated for 100 years of data. Data analyses and results showed that fitting Bartlett-Lewis model parameters makes it possible to simulate hourly rainfall while preserving precipitation statistical properties at several temporal aggregation levels. In general, the probability of dry periods tended to be overestimated.
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| Tipo: |
Pesquisa aplicada
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| Idioma: |
Inglês
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| Identificador: |
http://periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/ActaSciAgron/article/view/7052
10.4025/actasciagron.v33i4.7052
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| Editor: |
Universidade Estadual de Maringá
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| Formato: |
application/pdf
application/pdf
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| Fonte: |
Acta Scientiarum. Agronomy; v. 33, n. 4 (2011); 565-573
Acta Scientiarum. Agronomy; v. 33, n. 4 (2011); 565-573
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| Direitos: |
DECLARATION OF ORIGINALITY AND CESSATION OF COPYRIGHTI Declare that current article is original and has not been submitted for publication, in part or in whole, to any other national or international journal. I also declare that once published in the Acta Scientiarum. Agronomy, a publication of the Universidade Estadual de Maringá, it will not be submitted by me or by any co-author to any other scientific communication mean. In my name and in the name of co-authors, I shall cede the copyright of the above mentioned article to the Universidade Estadual de Maringá and I declare that I know that the non-observance of this norm may make me liable for the penalties contemplated in the Law for the Protection of Authors’ Rights (Act 9609 of the 19th February 1998).
DECLARACIÓN DE ORIGINALIDAD Y CESIÓN DE DERECHOS DE AUTOR Declaro que el presente artículo es original, no fue sometido a la publicación en cualquier otro periódico nacional o internacional, sea en parte o en su totalidad. Declaro, aun, que una vez publicado en la revista Acta Scientiarum. Agronomy, editado por la Universidad Estadual de Maringá, éste jamás será sometido por mí o por cualquier uno de los demás coautores a cualquier otro periódico. A través de este instrumento, en mi nombre y en nombre de los demás coautores, por ventura existentes, cedo los derechos de autor del referido artículo a la Universidad Estadual de Maringá y declaro estar informado de que la no observancia de este compromiso someterá al infractor las sanciones y penas previstas en la Ley de Protección de Derechos de Autor (Nº9609, de 19/02/98).
DECLARAÇÃO DE ORIGINALIDADE E CESSÃO DE DIREITOS AUTORAISDeclaro que o presente artigo é original, não tendo sido submetido à publicação em qualquer outro periódico nacional ou internacional, quer seja em parte ou em sua totalidade. Declaro, ainda, que uma vez publicado na revista Acta Scientiarum. Agronomy, editada pela Universidade Estadual de Maringá, o mesmo jamais será submetido por mim ou por qualquer um dos demais co-autores a qualquer outro meio de divulgação científica. Através deste instrumento, em meu nome e em nome dos demais co-autores, porventura existentes, cedo os direitos autorais do referido artigo à Universidade Estadual de Maringá e declaro estar ciente de que a não observância deste compromisso submeterá o infrator a sanções e penas previstas na Lei de Proteção de Direitos Autorias (Nº9609, de 19/02/98).
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