Consulta: subjectFacets:"C53"
Registros recuperados: 33
Data/hora: 02/06/2024 15:10:57

Non-Linear Dynamics and Predictable Forecast Errors: An Application to the OECD Forecasts for Germany
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Antzoulatos,   Angelos A.; Wilfling,   Bernd.
Recent theoretical advances in consumption theory suggest that there may exist predictable consumption surges which, if not taken sufficiently into account in forecasting, may lead to predictable forecast errors. We use this insight to identify economic variables that might help improve the OECD's forecasts for Germany's consumption and GDP growth.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Consumption; GDP; Macroeconomic forecasts; Non-linear dynamics.; Consumer/Household Economics; C53; E21; E37.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26169

El Paso Housing Sector Econometric Forecast Accuracy
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fullerton,   Thomas M., Jr.; Kelley,   Brian W.
There is comparatively little empirical evidence regarding the accuracy of regional housing sector forecasts. Much of the recent analysis conducted for this topic is developed for housing starts and indicates a relatively poor track record. This study examines residential real estate forecasts previously published for El Paso, TX using a structural econometric model. Model coverage is much broader than just starts. Similar to earlier studies, the previously published econometric predictions frequently do not fare very well against the selected random walk benchmarks utilized for the various series under consideration.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Applied econometrics; Metropolitan housing sector forecasts; Agribusiness; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Political Economy; C53; R15; R31.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45534

World Soybean Demand: An Elasticity Analysis and Long-Term Projections
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Masuda,   Tadayoshi; Goldsmith,   Peter D.
Soybeans are one of the most valuable crops in the world and are characterized by their multi-purpose uses: food, feed, fuel and other industrial usages such as paint, inks, and plastics.  Out of 183.9 million tons of world supply/demand of soybeans in 2001-03 year, about 10% of them were directly consumed as food (5.9%) or feed (3.8%) but 84.2% of them were crushed into soyoil and soymeal.  Soyoil is mainly processed to vegetable oil for human consumption and recently used as a biodiesel feedstock.  Soymeal is used not only as feed for livestock (especially for pork and poultry due to its low fiber level) and aquaculture, but also as a good source of protein for the human diet in a variety of forms in different cultures.  This paper analyzes the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Soybean demand; Elasticity; Error correction mechanism (ECM); Projection; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing; C22; C53; Q11.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49490

On Term Structure Models of Commodity Futures Prices and the Kaldor-Working Hypothesis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Power,   Gabriel J.; Turvey,   Calum G.
Both prices and the volatility of storable agricultural commodity futures contracts have been rising since 2005 and particularly since 2007. This paper aims to answer two principal questions: (i) How has the behavior of these futures prices over time and across maturities changed with the rise of biofuels and their demand-side pres- sure on corn and related crops?, and (ii) Is there now stronger or weaker evidence of the Kaldor-Working convenience yield-storage hypothesis, whereby futures price backwardation can be explained by the high value of remaining inventory stocks when these are near stockouts? The empirical application is to Chicago Board of Trade corn, wheat and soybeans futures. To make use of all available futures data rather than only the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; C52; C53; G12; G13; Q13; Q14.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37608

Market Impacts of Adopting Herbicide-Resistant Rice in the Southern United States
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fuller,   Frank H.; Annou,   Mamane Malam; Wailes,   Eric J.
Herbicide-resistant (HR) rice varieties offer U.S. rice producers a powerful tool for control of red rice infestations.  However, improved weed control can shorten crop rotations and boost yields, resulting in expanded rice production and lower domestic market prices.  Declining market returns diminish the benefits of HR rice adoption and substantially reduce net returns for nonadopters.  More competitive prices increase U.S. rice exports, causing a slight decline in world rice prices.  The dependence of the rice marketing loan program on world prices prevents loan deficiency payments from adequately offsetting producers’ market revenue losses.  U.S. consumers gain from lower rice prices.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Biotechnology; Crop rotation; Herbicide resistant; Red rice; Rice; Simulation models; Technology adaptation; Q11; Q16; Q18; O33; C53.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37859

Plagiarism Without Apology--Systematic Integration of Available Information in a Long Run Agricultural Outlook
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Witzke,   Heinz Peter; Britz,   Wolfgang.
In the context of a long run agricultural outlook on behalf of the European Environmental Agency a new methodology has been developed to systematically integrate external forecasts into a quite detailed agricultural sector model. External forecasts usually provide estimates for the exogenous variables in modelling work and frequently they are also used for comparisons and potential reassessment of empirical specifications. The innovative characteristic of this study is that expert forecasts have been used to specify parameter changes expressing structural change affecting behavioural functions. The outlook was therefore set up as a simultaneous estimation and forecasting effort which permitted to integrate various, usually contradictory expert forecasts...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural outlook; Forecasting; Modelling; Expert information; Agricultural and Food Policy; C15; C53; Q11; Q19; Q21.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24666

EU policy reform simulation based on panel data estimation of on- and off-farm labour supply equations for Dutch dairy farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ooms,   Daan L.; Hall,   Alastair R.
This research focuses on the estimation of labour supply equations for Dutch dairy farmers that are suitable for policy simulations. Data availability leads to the fact that we can not estimate structural labour supply equations. We show how to derive reduced form equations suitable for policy simulations. In this research we use the panel data sample selection estimation approach of Kyriazidou (1997) and Wooldridge (1995) to estimate the off-farm labour supply equation. The two lead to different estimation results and different simulation results based on these.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Econometrics; Panel Data; Sample Selection; Labour Supply; CAP Reform; Labor and Human Capital; C23; C24; C51; C53; D13; J22; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19434

The Asymmetric Cycling of U.S. Soybeans and Brazilian Coffee Prices: An Opportunity for Improved Forecasting and Understanding of Price Behavior
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.
The behavior of agricultural commodity markets can arguably result in markedly asymmetric price cycles, that is, downward cycles of substantially different length and breadth than upward cycles. This study assesses whether asymmetric-cycle models can enhance the understanding of the dynamics and provide for a better forecasting of U.S. soybeans and Brazilian coffee prices. The forecasts from asymmetric cycle models are found to be substantially mode precise than those obtained from standard autoregressive models. The asymmetric cycle models also provide useful insights on the markedly different dynamics of the upward versus the downward cycles exhibited by the prices of these two commodities.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Asymmetric cycles; Coffee prices; Soybean prices; Threshold autoregressive models; Time series forecasting; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; C22; C53.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48760

The 2007 emerging corn price surge revisited – Was it expected or a large surprise?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Schmitz,   Jochen; Ledebur,   Oliver von.
Point forecasts are a common method to classify uncertain future outcomes. In the option price literature the concept of implied volatility is well known. This concept is used to get a forward looking indicator about the future volatility. Nowadays market expectations can be extracted in numerous ways. One of the first articles regarding this topic in the area of exchange rates and interest rates was Sölderlind and Svensson (1997). Extracting market expectations is not only focused on point forecasts. A more ambitious approach is to extract the whole possible range of market expectations out of option prices. This concept is called risk-neutral density (RND). Most agricultural markets undergo some remarkable price movements in the last 4 years. The reasons...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk neutral density; Market expectations; Futures prices; Corn market; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Political Economy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Q14; C53; C58; G17.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123971

“Google it!” Forecasting the US Unemployment Rate with a Google Job Search index
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: D’Amuri,   Francesco; Marcucci,   Juri.
We suggest the use of an Internet job-search indicator (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our preferred leading indicator (GI), the more standard initial claims or combinations of both. We find that models augmented with the GI outperform the traditional ones in predicting the monthly unemployment rate, even in most state-level forecasts and in comparison with the Survey of Professional Forecasters.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Google Econometrics; Forecast Comparison; Keyword search; US Unemployment; Time Series Models; Labor and Human Capital; C22; C53; E27; E37; J60; J64.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60680

Modeling the Liberalisation of the Milk Market in Switzerland
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Flury,   Christian; Mack,   Gabriele; Rieder,   Peter; Pfefferli,   S.
Switzerland aims to liberalise the milk market by 2011. This will result in distinctive changes in the basic conditions for agriculture. The impacts of the liberalisation are investigated with a composite model obtained by combining an optimization model for the agricultural sector and a dynamic simulation model for the milk and meat market. The calculations with the composite model indicate that the milk price depends strongly on the phasing out of market support, while the abolition of milk quotas in 2009 is less decisive. An introduction of a dairy cow premium leads to a higher milk production, especially with abolished milk quotas. In this case the European milk price level represents the lower limit for the milk price in Switzerland. Compared to the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Dynamic simulation; Sectoral optimisation; Milk market; Milk quota; Agribusiness; C53; C61; O21; Q13; Q18.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24507

Predicting Pork Supplies: An Application of Multiple Forecast Encompassing
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sanders,   Dwight R.; Manfredo,   Mark R.
Conditional efficiency or forecast encompassing is tested among alternative pork production forecasts using the method proposed by Harvey and Newbold.  One-, two-, and three-quarter ahead pork production forecasts made by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the University of Illinois and Purdue University Cooperative Extension Service, and those produced by a univariate time series model are evaluated.  The encompassing tests provide considerably more information about forecast performance than a simple pair-wise test for equality of mean squared errors.  The results suggest that at a one-quarter horizon, the Extension service forecasts encompass the competitors, but at longer horizon, a composite forecast may provide greater accuracy.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Composite forecasts; Forecast encompassing; Pork production; C53; Q13.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43451

Determinants of Land-Use Change In the United States 1982-1997
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lubowski,   Ruben N.; Plantinga,   Andrew J.; Stavins,   Robert N.
Changes in the use of land in the United States produce significant economic and environmental effects with important implications for a wide variety of policy issues, including protection of wildlife habitat, management of urban growth, and mitigation of global climate change. In contrast to previous descriptive and qualitative analyses of the trends in national land use, this paper uses an econometric approach to isolate the importance of historical changes in land-use profits and key government policies in determining national land-use changes from 1982 to 1997. The policies we examine are the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and total government payments to crop producers. We estimate a national-level discrete choice model of changes among the major...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Land use; Econometric model; Counterfactual simulation; Conservation Reserve Program (CRP); Land Economics/Use; C53; Q1; Q24; R14; R15.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10714

PREVISÃO DOS PREÇOS DO AÇÚCAR E ANÁLISE DA SUA VOLATILIDADE NO MERCADO FUTURO BRASILEIRO (2003 A 2007): UMA APLICAÇÃO DE MODELOS DA FAMÍLIA ARCH
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nicola,   Danieli Scalcon; Freitas,   Clailton Ataides; Paz,   Marlon Vidal.
Este trabalho objetiva mensurar a volatilidade dos preços futuros do açúcar negociados na BM&amp;F, bem como verificar quais entre os modelos univariados propostos apresenta melhor desempenho preditivo para o preço da commodity em questão. Para tanto se utilizam modelos de análise de volatilidade do tipo ARCH e modelos univariados de previsão aplicados a séries temporais, entre os quais os modelos ARIMA e SARIMA. Os resultados empíricos sugerem não haver presença de assimetria entre choques positivos e negativos e indicam a persistência na volatilidade dos preços do açúcar, implicando que os choques de volatilidade se dissiparão lentamente ao longo do tempo, podendo gerar perdas econômicas. Quanto aos modelos de previsão, o modelo ARIMA apresentou os...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Preços do açúcar; Modelos de previsão e volatilidade; Sugar prices; Prevision and volatility models; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Q11; C01; C22; C53.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108829

Spurious Long Memory in Commodity Futures: Implications for Agribusiness Option Pricing
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Power,   Gabriel J.; Turvey,   Calum G.
Long memory, and more precisely fractionally integration, has been put forward as an explanation for the persistence of shocks in a number of economic time series data as well as to reconcile misleading findings of unit roots in data that should be stationary. Recent evidence suggests that long memory characterizes not commodity futures prices but rather price volatility (generally defined as $L_p$ norms of price logreturns). One implication of long memory in volatility is the mispricing of options written on commodity futures, the consequence of which is that fractional Brownian motion should replace geometric Brownian motion as the building block for option pricing solutions. This paper asks whether findings of long memory in volatility might be spurious...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Q13; Q14; Marketing; C52; C53; G12; G13.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9782

Modelling Asymmetric Dependence Using Copula Functions: An Application to Value-at-Risk in the Energy Sector
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bastianin,   Andrea.
In this paper I have used copula functions to forecast the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of an equally weighted portfolio comprising a small cap stock index and a large cap stock index for the oil and gas industry. The following empirical questions have been analyzed: (i) are there nonnormalities in the marginals? (ii) are there nonnormalities in the dependence structure? (iii) is it worth modelling these nonnormalities in risk- management applications? (iv) do complicated models perform better than simple models? As for questions (i) and (ii) I have shown that the data do deviate from the null of normality at the univariate, as well as at the multivariate level. When considering the dependence structure of the data I have found that asymmetries show up in their...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Copula functions; Forecasting; Value-At-Risk; Risk and Uncertainty; C32; C52; C53; G17; Q43.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50452

Entwicklung eines Modells zur Projektion des Wirtschaftswachstums und der langfristigen Nachfrage nach Produktionsfaktoren in Deutschland: unter besonderer Berucksichtigung des informations- technologischen Innovationsprozesses
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Danckwerts,   Rudolf-Ferdinand; Grossmann,   Wolf Dieter; Henne,   Wolfgang.
Es wird das Konzept für ein makroökonomisches Strukturmodell mit integriertem Innovationsprozesskern zur Analyse und Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland vorgestellt. Das geplante Modell soll explizit die Auswirkungen des immer bedeutsamer werdenden IuK-technologischen Innovationsprozesses auf das Wirtschaftswachstum erfassen. Das Modell besteht aus einem makroökonometrischen Teil zur Darstellung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung und einem systemdynamischen Teil zur Erfassung des Innovationsprozesses auf mikroökonomischer Ebene. Als Modellteile sind zwei bereits existierende Modelle, das HWWA-Modell und das ISIS-Modell, nach ihrer Erweiterung und Anpassung vorgesehen. Die erforderlichen Modifizierungen, das Verfahren zur Kopplung der...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Zeitreihenmodelle; Dynamische Analyse; Prognose und Simulation; Neue Ökonomie; Technischer Wandel; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C32; C53; C61; E17; O33.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26166

A Global Map of Costal Recreation Values: Results From a Spatially Explicit Based Meta-Analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ghermandi,   Andrea; Nunes,   Paulo A.L.D.
The welfare dimension of the recreational services provided by global coastal ecosystems is examined through a meta-analytical regression-based valuation approach.  First, we construct a global, state-of-the-art database of stated and revealed preference estimates on coastal recreation, which includes also the grey literature and with the latest entry updated to February 2010. Second, the profile of each of the 253 observations of our dataset, which correspond to individual value estimates, was further enriched with characteristics of the built coastal environment (site accessibility, anthropogenic pressure, level of human development), characteristics of the natural coastal environment (presence of protected area, type of ecosystem,  and marine...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Built Coastal Environment; Natural Coastal Environment; Ecosystem Service Valuation; Geographic Information Systems; Mapping Ecosystem Values; Marine Biodiversity; Scaling up; Spatial Analysis; Spatial Economic Valuation; Value Transfer; Environmental Economics and Policy; C53; Q26; Q57; R12.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108205

Forecasting Basis Levels in the Soybean Complex: A Comparison of Time Series Methods
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sanders,   Dwight R.; Manfredo,   Mark R.
A battery of time series methods are compared for forecasting basis levels in the soybean futures complex: soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. Specifically, nearby basis forecasts are generated with exponential smoothing techniques, autoregression moving average (ARMA), and vector autoregression (VAR) models. The forecasts are compared to those of the 5-year average, year ago, and no change methods. Using the 5-year average as the benchmark method, the forecast evaluation results suggest that alternative naive techniques may produce better forecasts, and the improvement gained by time series modeling is relatively small. In this sample, there is little evidence that the basis has become systematically more difficult to forecast in recent years.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Basis forecasts; Time series models; Soybean complex; Risk and Uncertainty; C53; Q13.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43790

Adapting agriculture to climate change
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Iglesias,   Ana; Quiroga,   Sonia; Diz,   Agustin; Garrote,   Luis.
We evaluate the potential impacts and measure the potential limits of adaptation of agriculture to climate change. Pressures on land and water resources are expected to intensify existing risks in low latitude areas – e.g., South-East Asia deltas – and in regions with current water scarcity – e.g. Mediterranean, and create new opportunities in some northern temperate areas – e.g., Northern Russia, Northern Europe. The need to respond to these risks and opportunities is addressed by evaluating the costs and benefits of a number of technical and policy actions. The discussion aims to assist stakeholders facing the adaptation challenge and develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of the sector to climate change.
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Adaptation; Climatic change; Global production; Mitigation; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C51; C53; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120200

Discounting the Distant Future: How Much Do Uncertain Rates Increase Valuations?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Newell,   Richard G.; Pizer,   William A.
Costs and benefits in the distant future-such as those associated with global warming, long-lived infrastructure, hazardous and radioactive waste, and biodiversity-often have little value today when measured with conventional discount rates. We demonstrate that when the future path of this conventional rate is uncertain and persistent (i.e., highly correlated over time), the distant future should be discounted at lower rates than suggested by the current rate. We then use two centuries of data on U.S. interest rates to quantify this effect. Using both random walk and mean-reverting models, we compute the certainty-equivalent rate that is, the single discount rate that summarizes the effect of uncertainty and measures the appropriate forward rate of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Discounting; Uncertainty; Interest rate forecasting; Climate policy; Intergenerational equity; Risk and Uncertainty; D90; E47; C53; H43; Q28.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10743

Oil Price Forecast Evaluation with Flexible Loss Functions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bastianin,   Andrea; Manera,   Matteo; Markandya,   Anil; Scarpa,   Elisa.
The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that should be implemented. Relative to the previous literature, this paper is novel in several respects. First of all, we test and systematically evaluate the ability of several alternative econometric specifications proposed in the literature to capture the dynamics of oil prices. Second, we analyse the effects of different data frequencies on the coefficient estimates and forecasts obtained using each selected econometric specification. Third, we compare different models at different data frequencies on a common sample and common data. Fourth, we evaluate the forecasting performance of each selected model using static forecasts, as well as...
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Oil Price; WTI Spot and Futures Prices; Forecasting; Econometric Models; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; C52; C53; Q32; Q43.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120042

Modeling Advertising Expenditures and Spillover Effects Applied to the U.S. Non-Alcoholic Beverage Industry: Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Polynomial Distributed Lag (PDL) Approaches
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dharmasena,   Senarath; Capps,   Oral, Jr.; Bessler,   David A.
The non-alcoholic beverage market in the U.S. is a multi-billion dollar industry growing steadily over the past decade. Also, non-alcoholic beverages are among the most heavily advertised food and beverage groups in the United States. Several studies pertaining to non-alcoholic beverages including the incorporation of advertising effects have been conducted, but most of these have centered attention on milk consumption. Some studies have considered demand interrelationships for several beverages including advertising effects in systems-wide analyses.  In our analysis, we develop and employ a unique monthly time-series data set derived from Nielsen Homsescan panels for household purchases of non-alcoholic beverages over the period from January 1998 through...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Non-alcoholic beverages; Vector autoregression; Polynomial distributed lags; Beverage advertizing; Directed acyclic graphs; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Marketing; C18; C22; C52; C53; C81; D11; D12.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124363

Alternative Model Selection Using Forecast Error Variance Decompositions in Wholesale Chicken Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: McKenzie,   Andrew M.; Goodwin,   Harold L., Jr.; Carreira,   Rita I.
Although Vector Autoregressive models are commonly used to forecast prices, specification of these models remains an issue. Questions that arise include choice of variables and lag length. This article examines the use of Forecast Error Variance Decompositions to guide the econometrician’s model specification. Forecasting performance of Variance Autoregressive models, generated from Forecast Error Variance Decompositions, is analyzed within wholesale chicken markets. Results show that the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition approach has the potential to provide superior model selections to traditional Granger Causality tests.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Broiler markets; DAGs; Forecasting; Market structure; VAR; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; C53; D4; L1; Q00.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48750

Rationality of U.S. Department of Agriculture Livestock Price Forecasts: A Unified Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sanders,   Dwight R.; Manfredo,   Mark R.
This research presents a systematic and unified approach to evaluating forecast rationality that considers the potential of nonstationarity in forecasts and realized values. The approach is applied to one-quarter ahead U.S. Department of Agriculture livestock price forecasts from 1982 through 2004. Results show that forecasts and realized prices are integrated of the same order, and those that are nonstationary are cointegrated. However, the stationary price forecasts for hogs, turkeys, eggs, and milk are biased and improperly scaled, and forecast errors tend to be repeated. Similarly, nonstationary forecasts for cattle and broilers are also biased and irrational in the long run, but short-run dynamics are rational.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Forecast evaluation; Livestock prices; Rationality; Livestock Production/Industries; C53; Q13.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6658

Forecasting the Path of China's CO2 Emissions: Offsetting Kyoto - and Then Some
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Auffhammer,   Maximilian; Carson,   Richard T.
Our results suggest that the anticipated path of China's Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions has dramatically increased over the last five years. The magnitude of the projected increase in Chinese emissions out to 2015 is several times larger than reductions embodied in the Kyoto Protocol. Our estimates are based on a unique provincial level panel data set from the Chinese Environmental Protection Agency. This dataset contains considerably more information relevant to the path of likely Chinese greenhouse gas emissions than national level time series models currently in use. Model selection criteria clearly reject the popular static environmental Kuznets curve specification in favor of a class of dynamic models with spatial dependence.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Forecasting; Climate Change; China; Model Selection; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q43; C53.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7197

Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Texas Crops
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Eggerman,   Chris R.; McMahon,   Sarah A.; Richardson,   James W.; Outlaw,   Joe L.
Replaced with revised version of paper 02/02/06.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop model; Simulation; Input-output model; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C53; Q10.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35303

Preferences Erosion and Trade Costs in the Sugar Market: The Impact of the Everything but Arms Initiative and the Reform of the EU Policy
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Conforti,   Piero; Rapsomanikis,   George.
The changes recently introduced in the EU Common Market Organization for sugar will interact with preferential imports from developing countries and least developed countries that enjoy preferential treatment for exports to the EU, as well as by trade and adjustment costs. This paper focuses on the impact of the EU Commission’s sugar policy reform and the Everything But Arms initiative on the African, Caribbean and Pacific countries and the Least Developed Countries. Simulations are run with an empirical model structure comprising a partial equilibrium model for the world sugar market and a gravity model to replicate least developed countries bilateral trade with Europe. Particularly, the gravity approach is employed to model the abolition of import...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: EBA; Sugar; Gravity; Trade; C53; International Relations/Trade; Q18; C23.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25641

IMPACT ANALYSIS OF FOOD POLICY RESPONSE ON HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY: THE CASE OF SOUTH AFRICA’S MAIZE SUBSECTOR
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vermeulen,   Hester; Ndibongo Traub,   Lulama; Meyer,   Ferdinand H.
This study quantifies the possible income and nutritional impact of the recent commitment by the South African Department of Agriculture to increase budgetary spending on agricultural development. Three levels of models are utilized.  The first, a large-scale partial equilibrium model, generated an outlook for maize grain under two possible future scenarios; the first is the baseline scenario under which it is assumed no additional government investment in the agricultural sector takes place, the second allows for the impact of an investment within the maize subsector large enough to increase local maize production by 15% above the baseline.  The second model, a rational distributed lag model, links the grain sector to the maize meal down-stream market....
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Partial Equilibrium Model; Vertical Price Transmission; Household Food Security.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Marketing; C22; C32; C53; D1; Q11; Q18.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51396

The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Auffhammer,   Maximilian.
The United States Energy Information Administration publishes annual forecasts of nationally aggregated energy consumption, production, prices, intensity and GDP. These government issued forecasts often serve as reference cases in the calibration of simulation and econometric models, which climate and energy policy are based on. This study tests for rationality of published EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss. We find strong empirical evidence of asymmetric loss for oil, coal and gas prices as well as natural gas consumption, GDP and energy intensity.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Forecasting; Asymmetric loss; Energy intensity; Energy Information Administration; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q43; C53.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25017

Forecasting Housing Prices under Different Submarket Assumptions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chen,   Zhuo; Cho,   Seong-Hoon; Poudyal,   Neelam C.; Roberts,   Roland K.
This research evaluated forecasting accuracy of hedonic price models based on a number of different submarket assumptions. Using home sale data for the City of Knoxville and vicinities merged with geographic information, we found that forecasting housing prices with submarkets defined using expert knowledge and by school district and combining information conveyed in different modeling strategies are more accurate and efficient than models that are spatially aggregated, or with submarkets defined by statistical clustering techniques. This finding provided useful implications for housing price prediction in an urban setting and surrounding areas in that forecasting models based on expert knowledge of market structure or public school quality and simple...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Clustering; Forecasting; Hedonic price; Housing Submarket; Demand and Price Analysis; C53; R21.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9689

On- and Off-Farm Labour Supply of Dutch Dairy Farmers: Estimation and Policy Simulations
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ooms,   Daan L.; Hall,   Alastair R.
This research focuses on the effect of decoupled payments on labour supply of Dutch dairy farmers. Data availability leads to the fact that we can not estimate structural labour supply equations. We show how to derive reduced form equations suitable for policy simulations. We use the panel data sample selection estimation approach Wooldridge (1995) to estimate the off-farm labour supply equation. This method is based on Mundlak's (1978) linear panel data estimation approach, which we use to estimate the on-farm labour supply equations. Even though, simulations show a significant negative effect of decoupled payments on labour supply, the economic significance of this effect is very limited.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Decoupled payments; Labour supply; Panel data; Sample selection; Policy simulation; Labor and Human Capital; Livestock Production/Industries; C23; C24; C51; C53; D13; J22; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24506

House Price Prediction: Hedonic Price Model vs. Artificial Neural Network
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Limsombunchai,   Visit.
The objective of this paper is to empirically compare the predictive power of the hedonic model with an artificial neural network model on house price prediction. A sample of 200 houses in Christchurch, New Zealand is randomly selected from the Harcourt website. Factors including house size, house age, house type, number of bedrooms, number of bathrooms, number of garages, amenities around the house and geographical location are considered. Empirical results support the potential of artificial neural network on house price prediction, although previous studies have commented on its black box nature and achieved different conclusions.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Hedonic Model; Artificial Neural Network (ANN); House Price.; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C53; L74.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97781