Consulta: subjectFacets:"Value of information"
Registros recuperados: 21
Data/hora: 03/06/2024 05:08:44

Using Expert Judgment and Stakeholder Values to Evaluate Adaptive Management Options
Provedor de dados: 7
Autores: Failing, Lee; Compass Resource Management; lfailing@compassrm.com; Horn, Graham; ; ghorn@planit.bc.ca; Higgins, Paul; ; paul.Higgins@bchydro.bc.ca.
This paper provides an example of a practical integration of probabilistic policy analysis and multi-stakeholder decision methods at a hydroelectric facility in British Columbia, Canada. A structured decision-making framework utilizing the probabilistic judgments of experts, a decision tree, and a Monte Carlo simulation provided insight to a decision to implement an experimental flow release program. The technical evaluation of the expected costs and benefits of the program were integrated into the multi-stakeholder decision process. The framework assessed the magnitude of the uncertainty, its potential to affect water management decisions, the predictive ability of the experiment, the value of the expected costs and benefits, and the preferences of...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports
Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Decision analysis; Expert judgment; Hydroelectricity; Multi-attribute evaluation; Multi-stakeholder consultation; Risk management; Value of information.
Ano: 2004

THE EXPECTED VALUE OF GENETIC INFORMATION IN LIVESTOCK FEEDING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lambert,   David K.; DeVuyst,   Eric A.; Moss,   Charles B.
Scientific inquiry is increasing our knowledge of plant and animal genomics.  The ability to specify heterogeneous production processes, to sort agricultural inputs by genotype, or to guide breeding programs to satisfy specific markets based on genetic expression may potentially increase producer and consumer benefits.  This research develops a decision analysis framework to assess the expected value of genetic information.  Expected returns are evaluated both in the presence of, and without, genetic trait information.  Potential gains in the value of information can be quantified as research unravels the linkages between genetics and crop and animal performance and quality.  An application to cattle feeding indicates potential gains to developing markets...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Value of information; Genetics; Livestock; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23609

On the Potential Use of Adaptive Control Methods for Improving Adaptive Natural Resource Management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bond,   Craig A.
The paradigm of adaptive natural resource management (AM), in which experiments are used to learn about uncertain aspects of natural systems, is gaining prominence as the preferred technique for administration of large-scale environmental projects. To date, however, tools consistent with economic theory have yet to be used to either evaluate AM strategies or improve decision-making in this framework. Adaptive control (AC) techniques provide such an opportunity. This paper demonstrates the conceptual link between AC methods, the alternative treatment of realized information during a planning horizon, and AM practices; shows how the different assumptions about the treatment of observational information can be represented through alternative dynamic...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Adaptive control; Adaptive management; Dynamic programming; Value of experimentation; Value of information; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108721

Optimal Grazing Termination Date for Dual-Purpose Winter Wheat Production
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Taylor,   Karen W.; Epplin,   Francis M.; Brorsen,   B. Wade; Fieser,   Brian G.; Horn,   Gerald W.
Dual-purpose winter wheat (fall-winter forage plus grain) production is an important economic enterprise in the southern Great Plains. Grazing termination to enable grain production is a critical decision. The objective is to determine the optimal grazing termination date for dual-purpose wheat. The value of knowing the occurrence of first hollow stem (FHS), a wheat growth threshold for grazing termination, is also determined. Results indicate that for most price situations grazing should be terminated at or before FHS. Marginal wheat returns from extended grazing were negative and the value of FHS information ranges from $1.50 to $10 per acre.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Dual-purpose; First hollow stem; Plateau function; Stocker cattle; Value of information; Wheat; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics; Q12; Q16.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57148

The Value of Information: A Background Paper on Measuring the Contribution of Space-Derived Earth Science Data to National Resource Management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: MacAuley,   Molly K.
This study, prepared at the request of the Office of Earth Science at the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), describes a general framework for conceptualizing the value of information and illustrates how the framework might be used to value information from earth science data collected from space. The framework serves two purposes. One purpose is provision of a common basis by which to conduct and evaluate studies of the value of earth science information that serves a variety of uses, from improving environmental quality to protecting public health and safety. The second purpose is to better inform decision-makers about the value of data and information. Decision-makers comprise three communities: consumers and producers of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Value of information; Earth science; Natural resource economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; O32; O38; Q28.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10839

Optimal Preservation of Agricultural and Environmental Land within a Municipality Under Irreversibility and Uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Howard,   Peter H.
Replaced with revised version of paper 07/22/11.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Irreversibility; Spatial-temporal modeling; Value of information; Policy design; Climate change; Agricultural preservation; Environmental conservation; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Political Economy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103639

Staying in Touch through Extension: An Analysis of Farmers’ Use of Alternative Extension Information Products
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jones,   Lauren E.; Diekmann,   Florian; Batte,   Marvin T.
The U.S. farming industry is evolving quickly. It is therefore important that state Extension services be prepared to evolve as well. This study uses data collected in a 2007 survey of Ohio farmers to evaluate likelihood and frequency of use of various services offered by Extension as well as overall satisfaction with Extension services. Results indicate that tailoring of topics and communication methods to type of farm and/or farmer informational needs could improve the use of Extension resources. This implies that targeting of information products and methods may improve the performance of Extension education programs and customer satisfaction.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Communication methods; Double hurdle model; Extension information demand; Extension satisfaction; Value of information; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Farm Management; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession; Q10; Q12; Q16.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90669

The Value of Countermarketing Information to Smokers: Evidence from Field Auctions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rousu,   Matthew C.; Nonnemaker,   James; Farrelly,   Matthew.
Information about cigarettes can help smokers come to an informed decision about what cigarettes to purchase.  Countermarketing information, which helps counter potentially biased marketing information, can fill this void, but little is known about the value of this information to smokers.  In this paper, we use data from experimental auctions to estimate the value of countermarketing information to smokers.  We find that countermarketing information has significant value to smokers who have been exposed to marketing information from tobacco companies, but we find no evidence it provides value to smokers not exposed to marketing information
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Field auctions; Value of information; Cigarettes; Consumer/Household Economics; Health Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49219

ECONOMIC CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dorfman,   Jeffrey H.; McIntosh,   Christopher S.
Forecasts of economic time series are often evaluated according to their accuracy as measured by either quantitative precision or qualitative reliability.  We argue that consumers purchase forecasts for the potential utility gains from utilizing them, not for their accuracy.  Using Monte Carlo techniques to incorporate the temporal heteroskedasticity inherent in asset returns, the expected utility of a set of qualitative forecasts is simulated for corn and soybean futures prices.  Monetary values for forecasts of various reliability levels are derived.  The method goes beyond statistical forecast evaluation, allowing individuals to incorporate their own utility function and trading system into valuing a set of asset price forecasts.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Commodity prices; Forecast evaluation; Value of information; Consumer/Household Economics.
Ano: 1997
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15060

WILLINGNESS TO PAY VERSUS EXPECTED CONSUMPTION VALUE IN VICKREY AUCTIONS FOR NEW EXPERIENCE GOODS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Alfnes,   Frode.
Vickrey auctions are commonly used to elicit willingness to pay for new food products. This paper shows that in a multi-period context, it can be optimal to bid higher than the expected consumption value for new experience goods to obtain information about the quality of the goods. The degree of value uncertainty, the purchasing frequency, and expected future market prices affect both the expected value of the quality information and the weakly dominant bidding strategy in Vickrey auctions for new experience goods.  Keywords: experience goods, value of information, Vickrey auctions.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Experience goods; Value of information; Vickrey auctions.; Consumer/Household Economics.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21211

The Value of Plant Disease Early-Warning Systems: A Case Study of USDA's Soybean Rust Coordinated Framework
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Roberts,   Michael J.; Schimmelpfennig,   David E.; Ashley,   Elizabeth; Livingston,   Michael J.; Ash,   Mark S.; Vasavada,   Utpal.
Early-warning systems for plant diseases are valuable when the systems provide timely forecasts that farmers can use to inform their pest management decisions. To evaluate the value of the systems, this study examines, as a case study, USDA’s coordinated framework for soybean rust surveillance, reporting, prediction, and management, which was developed before the 2005 growing season. The framework’s linchpin is a website that provides real-time, county-level information on the spread of the disease. The study assesses the value of the information tool to farmers and factors that influence that value. The information’s value depends most heavily on farmers’ perceptions of the forecast’s accuracy. The study finds that the framework’s information is valuable...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Soybean rust; Farmers’ perceptions; Forecast accuracy; Updating beliefs; Value of information; Real-time disease location; Plant disease management; Pest management; Risk management; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7208

SLAUGHTERHOUSE RULES: HUMAN ERROR, FOOD SAFETY, AND UNIFORMITY IN MEAT PACKING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hennessy,   David A.
Meat retailers and processors express demand for a more uniform product, and technical innovations are allowing an increasingly uniform supply. Meat packers can promote uniformity through pre-slaughter sorting, or earlier through contractual procurement. Emphasizing human error and the efficacy of effort on the packing line, we develop a model whereby packers gain from expanding revenue and reducing processing costs when exogenously determined carcass uniformity increases. Line speed and occupational risk increase with uniformity. Whether optimally regulated or not, equilibrium food safety can decline with increased uniformity. Effort-saving automation also will have an adverse effect on occupational safety, and may have this effect on equilibrium food...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Biotechnology; Contract provisions; Overload; Safety regulation; Value of information; Agricultural and Food Policy; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18625

Economic Value of Selecting and Marketing Cattle by Leptin Genotype
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lusk,   Jayson L.
Recent research has identified genetic diversity in the ability of animals to manufacture and recognize leptin, a protein that regulated appetite and weight. This paper determines the economic value of using information on leptin genotype to select and manage beef cattle. Results reveal that the economic value of using genotypic information to sort cattle by optimal endpoint is only about $2/head for steers and $1/head for heifers; however, the value of using genotypic information to optimally select and feed only certain genotypes is $23/head for steers and $28/head for heifers. The difference in per head profit between the best and worst performing genotype is over $28 on the date the cattle were actually marketed and increases to $60 if each genotype is...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Cattle marketing; Days on feed; Genetics; Growth models; Leptin; Value of information; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8641

An Economic Analysis of Genetic Information: Leptin Genotyping in Fed Cattle
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: DeVuyst,   Eric A.; Bullinger,   Jared R.; Bauer,   Marc L.; Berg,   Paul T.; Larson,   Daniel M.
A polymorphism in the leptin gene is associated with fat deposition. Since fed cattle are often priced on a grid that considers yield and quality grades, fat deposition is an important factor in profitability. Using data from 590 crossbred steers and heifers, we simulate carcass traits to various days-on-feed and compute the associated profit under three price grids. Results indicate that leptin genotype does affect value by as much as $48 per head but has little impact on days-on-feed. Given current commercial testing fees of $40-$50 per sample, genotyping of feeder cattle appears to break even at best.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Beef cattle; Genetics; Leptin genotype; Value of information; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8644

Using Numerical Dynamic Programming to Compare Passive and Active Learning in the Adaptive Management of Nutrients in Shallow Lakes
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bond,   Craig A.; Loomis,   John B.
This paper illustrates the use of dual/adaptive control methods to compare passive and active adaptive management decisions in the context of an ecosystem with a threshold effect. Using discrete-time dynamic programming techniques, we model optimal phosphorus loadings under both uncertainty about natural loadings and uncertainty regarding the critical level of phosphorus concentrations beyond which nutrient recycling begins. Active management is modeled by including the anticipated value of information (or learning) in the structure of the problem, and thus the agent can perturb the system (experiment), update beliefs, and learn about the uncertain parameter. Using this formulation, we define and value optimal experimentation both ex ante and ex post. Our...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Adaptive control; Adaptive management; Dynamic programming; Value of experimentation; Value of information; Nonpoint source pollution; Learning; Decisions under uncertainty; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108720

Valuing Conflicting Public Information About a New Technology: The Case of Irradiated Foods
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rousu,   Matthew C.; Shogren,   Jason F.
Scientists and advocates can disagree on the value of new products or technologies, such as growth hormones, genetically modified organisms, and food irradiation. Both sides of the debate disseminate information to the public hoping to influence public opinion. This study assesses the economic value of both pro and anti public information using food irradiation as a case study. The value of information sources is estimated in isolation and in combination. In isolation, the results indicate each set of information has value. In combination, only the anti-irradiation information is found to have net positive value (persuading some consumers to purchase non-irradiated products). Pro-irradiation information worked to decrease the value of anti-irradiation...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Experimental auctions; Irradiation; Value of information; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8623

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF GENETIC INFORMATION: LEPTIN GENOTYPING IN FED CATTLE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bullinger,   Jared R.; DeVuyst,   Eric A.; Bauer,   Marc L.; Berg,   Paul T.; Larson,   Daniel M.
The use of genetic knowledge is widespread in crop production but is just recently being utilized in livestock production. This study investigates the economic value to feedlots of a polymorphism in the bovine leptin gene. Previous studies indicate that this polymorphism is associated with fat deposition. Since fed cattle are often priced on a grid that considers both yield and quality grades, fat deposition is an important factor in the value and profitability of fed cattle. Using data from 590 crossbred steers and heifers, we estimate growth curves for relevant biological traits, both with and without genotypic information. Using the resulting functions, we then simulate carcass traits to various days-on-feed and compute the associated profit under three...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Genetics; Leptin genotype; Beef cattle; Value of information; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23599

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES PROVIDED BY SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTS: A LITERATURE REVIEW
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hill,   Harvey S.J.; Mjelde,   James W.
Use of seasonal climate forecasts is a rapidly evolving area.  Effective research and application of climate forecasts require close cooperation between scientists in diverse disciplines and decision makers.  Successful collaboration requires all players to at least partially understand each other's perspectives.  Issues associated with seasonal forecasts, through a selected review of both physical and social sciences literature, is presented.  Our hope is that the review will improve research in this area by stimulating further collaborations.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Climate forecasts; Review; Value of information; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; D80; D81; O30; Q00.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15071

UNCERTAINTY AND THE REGULATION OF NITRATE POLLUTION FROM AGRICULTURE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Abrahams,   Nii Adote; Shortle,   James S.
A simulation of U.S. corn production compares four environmental policies for controlling agricultural nitrate pollution.  Public uncertainty about key economic parameters are considered.  Results indicate that policy choice is sensitive to commodity programs and the public information structure.  Agricultural research benefits are also sensitive to agricultural environmental policy choices.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Environmental policy; Nonpoint pollution; Uncertainty; Value of information; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 1997
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21027

Introducing Genetically Modified Plants: Now or Later -  An Option Value Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Romstad,   Eirik; Brimi,   Live; Ljorerud,   Urda.
Using market data, we have estimated the quasi option value of delaying to grow genetically modified corn and soybeans in Europe. We find that the current quasi option value of growing genetically modified soybeans and corn in Europe is high. This makes it likely that for the time being the information value of waiting exceeds the market gains of growing genetically modified plants in Europe.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Quasi option value; Value of information; Genetically modified plants; Crop Production/Industries; Q29; G13; Q18.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24655

A Herculean Task? Economics, Politics, and Realigning Government in the Case of U.S. Polar-Orbiting Weather Satellites
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: MacAuley,   Molly K.
In 1994 one of the most radical institutional restructurings in the U.S. government's provision of critical weather information took place after eight unsuccessful attempts. A presidential decision directive merged weather data collection by satellites operated by the Department of Defense for military operations and satellites operated by the Department of Commerce for civilian weather forecasting. Such radical restructuring involving government agencies with different objectives, economic constraints, and operating cultures is rare. This paper reviews the decision that led to "convergence," discusses economic arguments advanced for the merger, and finds that the problem of an incomplete contract, from the perspective of contract theory, is the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Weather economics; Space economics; Value of information; Government policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q28; O32; Q00.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10539