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| Registros recuperados: 77 | |
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| Pennings, Joost M.E.; Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| To date, there is only fragmented and anecdotal information about the impact of the recommendations of market advisory services (MAS) on producers' decision-making. A conceptual framework is developed in which, among others, producers' risk attitudes and risk perceptions; producers' perceptions about MAS performance and delivery; and match between the MAS and the producers' marketing philosophy are hypothesized to influence the impact of MAS on producers' marketing decisions. Data from 656 U.S. producers were used and the impact of MAS on producers' marketing decisions was tested using an ordered probit model. The empirical results reveal that not only the perceived MAS performance, but also the way in which MAS recommendations are delivered, and the... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20389 |
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| Egelkraut, Thorsten M.; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| Using 1971-2000 data, we examine the accuracy of corn and soybean production forecasts provided by the USDA and two private services. All agencies improved their forecasts as the harvest progressed, and forecast errors across the agencies were highly correlated. Relative accuracy varied by crop and month. In corn, USDA 's forecasts ranked as most accurate in all periods except in August during recent times, and improved more markedly as harvest progressed. In soybeans, forecast errors were very similar with the private agencies ranking as most accurate in August and September and making largest relative improvements in August during recent times. The USDA provided the most accurate October and November forecasts. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19068 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Jackson, Thomas E.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| The purpose of this paper is to address two basic performance questions for market advisory services: 1) Do market advisory services, on average, outperform an appropriate market benchmark? and 2) Do market advisory services exhibit persistence in their performance from year-to-year? Data on corn and soybean net price received for advisory services, as reported by the AgMAS Project, are available for the 1995, 1996 and 1997 marketing years. Performance test results suggest that, on average, market advisory services exhibit a small ability to "beat the market" for the 1995 through 1997 corn and soybean crops. This conclusion is somewhat sensitive to the type of performance test and market benchmark considered. The predictability results provide little... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 1999 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14789 |
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| Cabrini, Silvina M.; Stark, Brian G.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes. |
| This study analyzes the potential risk reduction gains from naive diversification (equal-weighting) among market advisory services for corn and soybeans. The total possible decrease in risk through naive diversification is small, mainly because advisory prices are highly correlated on average. Moreover, since marginal risk reduction benefits decrease rapidly with size, and the cost of holding the portfolios increases linearly due to services' subscription fees, it is optimal to limit portfolio size to a few advisory programs. Based on certainty equivalent measures and two representative risk aversion levels, preferred portfolio sizes are between one and three services. Overall, there does not appear to be strong justification for farmers adopting... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19013 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Good, Darrel L.. |
| The purpose of this research bulletin is to summarize the pricing performance of professional market advisory services for the 1995-2000 corn and soybean crops. The pricing performance results over 1995-2000 suggest several key findings. First, advisory programs in corn do not consistently beat market benchmarks, but they do consistently beat the farmer benchmark. Second, advisory programs in soybeans tend to beat both market and farmer benchmarks. Third, in terms of 50/50 revenue, advisory programs only marginally beat market benchmarks, but consistently beat the farmer benchmark. Overall, there is mixed evidence that advisory programs as a group outperform market benchmarks, while substantial evidence exists that advisory programs as a group outperform... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14794 |
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| Webber, Rick L.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes. |
| The purpose of this paper is to investigate the pricing performance of agricultural market advisory services in hogs. Pricing recommendations are available for all quarters from the beginning of 1995 through the end of 2001. The results show that average differences between advisory programs and market benchmarks are small in nominal terms for all three benchmarks, -$0.41/bu., $O.OO/cwt. and $-0.27/cwt. versus the cash, index and empirical benchmarks, respectively, and none of the average differences are significantly different from zero. Hence, advisory programs as a group do not outperform the market benchmarks in terms of average price. Advisory programs also do not outperform the market benchmarks in terms of average price and risk. Finally, there is... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18980 |
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| Pennings, Joost M.E.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| Mail surveys are a very popular instrument for researchers as well as government agencies and commercial firms to obtain information about farmers. A large percentage of farmers do not respond to these mail surveys. To gain insight into why farmers do not respond and their preferences regarding mail surveys, farmers who did not respond to a mail survey were interviewed. From our field study it appears that a large proportion does not even read the questionnaire. Furthermore, the period in which the survey is sent along with the form and amount of compensation, the sender of the questionnaire, and the length of the questionnaire has a crucial impact on the willingness to participate. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 1999 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14781 |
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| Pennings, Joost M.E.; Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Garcia, Philip; Frank, Julieta; Kuiper, W. Erno. |
| Producers have a wide variety of risk management instruments available. How do producers make a choice of risk management instruments? Using the recently developed choice bracketing framework, we examine what risk management strategies producers use and identify the factors that drive their risk management decisions. Our results identify that producers use a wide variety of combinations of risk management instruments and that they bracket their choices into sets of alternative risk management instruments. Using multinomial logit models to estimate the choice process provides information about the factors that influence producers' decision making. The results show that broad bracketing producers use different risk management instruments than narrow... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19550 |
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| Shi, Wei; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Dietz, Sarah N.. |
| While the risk premium hypothesis in futures markets has been the subject of a long and continuous controversy, the risk premium hypothesis in forward markets is also of interest among economists. The hypothesis is supported by some theoretical arguments and empirical evidence yet remains an open question. We in this study apply a two-equation regression model similar to those used in (Fama and French (1987} and de Roon et al. (1998) to analyze the risk premiums in forward markets, particularly, using the pre-harvest wheat forward markets in Illinois (1982-2004) and Kansas (1990-2004) as an example. The two-equation regression model consists of a forecasting equation, which uses a forward basis during a pre-harvest period to forecast the spot basis at the... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19043 |
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| Isengildina-Massa, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| This study uses quantile regressions to estimate historical forecast error distributions for WASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices, and then compute confidence limits for the forecasts based on the empirical distributions. Quantile regressions with fit errors expressed as a function of forecast lead time are consistent with theoretical forecast variance expressions while avoiding assumptions of normality and optimality. Based on out-of-sample accuracy tests over 1995/96–2006/07, quantile regression methods produced intervals consistent with the target confidence level. Overall, this study demonstrates that empirical approaches may be used to construct accurate confidence intervals for WASDE corn, soybean, and wheat price forecasts. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Commodity; Evaluating forecasts; Government forecasting; Judgmental forecasting; Prediction intervals; Price forecasting; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99120 |
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| Jackson, Thomas E.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| The purpose of this research report is to present an evaluation of advisory service pricing performance in 1996 for corn and soybeans. Specifically, the average price received by a subscriber to an advisory service is calculated for corn and soybean crops harvested in 1996. The average net advisory price across all 26 corn programs is $2.63 per bushel. The range of net advisory prices for corn is quite large, with a minimum of $2.08 per bushel and a maximum of $3.12 per bushel. The average net advisory price across all 24 soybean programs is $7.27 per bushel. As with corn, the range of net advisory prices for soybeans is substantial, with a minimum of $6.80 per bushel and a maximum of $7.80 per bushel. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Market Advisory Services; G1; D8; D7; D4; G2; H4; H8; Q1; Z1; Marketing. |
| Ano: 1998 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14787 |
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| Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Cabrini, Silvina M.; Stark, Brian G.; Shi, Wei; Webber, Rick L.; Hagedorn, Lewis A.; Williams, Steven L.. |
| This report presents marketing profiles and loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain profiles for the advisory services followed by the AgMAS Project for the 1995 through 2000 corn crops. Marketing profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative net amount priced under each program's set of recommendations throughout a crop year. Loan deficiency payment/marketing loan gain (LDP/MLG) profiles are constructed by plotting the cumulative percentage of the crop on which the LDP/MLG was claimed during the crop year. Marketing profiles provide information to evaluate the style of advisory services in several ways. The percentage of crop priced is a measure of within-crop year price risk. The higher the proportion of a crop priced, the lower the... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14776 |
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| Cabrini, Silvina M.; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| This paper describes the degree of marketing activeness of market advisory programs for corn and soybeans, and analyzes the relationship between activeness degree and pricing performance. The data set employed consists of advisory programs tracked by the AgMAS Project at the University of Illinois between 1995 and 2001. Cluster analysis was conducted to group the programs according to their degree of activeness. Panel data regression models were estimated to evaluate the relationship between activeness degree and pricing performance. In the corn market, point estimates indicate a positive effect of the degree of activeness on pricing performance, but this effect is of small magnitude and statistically insignificant. For soybeans,there is a stronger... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19037 |
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| Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| The economic value of public situation and outlook information has long been a subject of debate. The purpose of this study is to investigate the economic value of USDA reports in hog and cattle markets. The investigation is based on event study analysis, with the "events" consisting of the release of six major USDA situation and outlook reports for hogs and cattle from 1985 through 2003. These include Cattle, Cattle on Feed, Cold Storage, Hogs and Pigs, Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook (LDPO), and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports. As a result of the process of modeling volatility of hog and cattle prices, a TARCH-in-mean model was specified that closely followed the distribution of these price movements. The effects of... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19050 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Hagedorn, Lewis A.. |
| The purpose of this research report is to summarize the pricing performance of professional market advisory services for the 1995-2003 corn and soybean crops. First, advisory programs in corn do not consistently beat market benchmarks, but tend to consistently beat the farmer benchmark. Second, advisory programs in soybeans exhibit just the opposite pattern, consistently beating the market benchmarks but not the farmer benchmark. Third, in terms of 50/50 revenue, advisory programs show marginal consistency in beating both the market benchmarks and the farmer benchmark. So, the results provide mixed performance evidence with respect to both the market benchmarks and the farmer benchmark. |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37486 |
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| Shi, Wei; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Hagedorn, Lewis A.. |
| The cost of forward contracting corn is estimated with weekly pre-harvest forward bases for seven regions of Illinois from 1975 to 2002. Given the panel structure of the forward basis dataset, we extend Townsend and Brorsen's univariate unit root model for forward bases to a panel unit root model. With the time series of forward bases modeled as unit root processes, the cost of forward contracting is estimated. The empirical results from the estimation show that the cost of forward contracting corn is about 1¢/bushel, one hundred days before the harvest, for all regions in Illinois as a whole. The results also indicates that the cost could vary across regions and that the cost of forward contracting could be substantially higher than that of futures... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20409 |
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| Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes; Batts, Ryan M.. |
| The purpose of this research report is to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services for the 1995-2004 corn and soybean crops. Marketing assumptions applied to advisory program track records are intended to accurately depict “real-world” marketing conditions facing a representative central Illinois corn and soybean farmer. Several key assumptions are: i) with a few exceptions, the marketing window for a crop year runs from September before harvest through August after harvest, ii) on-farm or commercial physical storage costs, as well as interest opportunity costs, are charged to post-harvest sales, iii) brokerage costs are subtracted for all futures and options transactions and iv) Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) marketing loan... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37513 |
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| Bertoli, Roberto; Zuluaf, Carl R.; Irwin, Scott H.; Jackson, Thomas E.; Good, Darrel L.. |
| The 1995 marketing styles for the 25 market advisory service programs included in the AgMAS Project were developed in two steps. The first step was the construction of a detailed "menu" of the tools and strategies used by each of the advisory programs in marketing corn and soybeans. The menu describes the type of pricing tool, frequency of transactions, and magnitude of transactions. The second step was the development of a daily index of the net amount sold by each market advisory program. To construct such an index, the various futures, options, and cash positions recommended for a program on a given day were weighted by the respective position "delta." When the daily values of the index were plotted for the entire marketing period, the marketing... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Advisory services; Pricing tools; Pricing strategies; Assessment of recommendations; D4; C8; D8; M3; Q0; Marketing. |
| Ano: 1999 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14792 |
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| Registros recuperados: 77 | |
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