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A Dynamic Risk Optimization Model for Evaluating Profitable and Feasible Water Management Plans AgEcon
Grove, Bennie; Oosthuizen, L.K.; Backeberg, G.R..
Currently the South African government is advocating the cultivation of high valued crops and more efficient use of available water resources through the adoption o f more efficient irrigation technology and irrigation scheduling. A requirement of the National Water Act (Act 36 of 1998) is the compilation of water management plans. The main objective of this paper is to develop a multiperiod mathematical risk programming model able of assisting water user associations with the compilation of water management plans that are both profitable and feasible. Special care was taken to represent canal capacities and irrigation system application rates in the model. Risk simulation procedures are used to generate an appropriately correlated inter- and...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Dynamic Linear Programming; Risk; Irrigation; Feasibility; South Africa; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C6; Q15; Q12.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25554
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Abatement Cost Uncertainty and Policy Instrument Selection under a Stringent Climate Policy. A Dynamic Analysis AgEcon
Bosetti, Valentina; Golub, Alexander; Markandya, Anil; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo.
This paper investigates the relative economic and environmental outcomes of price versus quantity mechanisms to control GHG emissions when abatement costs are uncertain. In particular, we evaluate the impacts on policy costs, CO2 emissions and energy R&D for a stringent mitigation target of 550 ppmv CO2 equivalent (i.e. 450 for CO2 only) concentrations. The analysis is performed in an optimal growth framework via Monte Carlo simulations of the integrated assessment model WITCH (World Induced Technical Change Hybrid). Results indicate that the price instrument stochastically dominates the quantity instrument when a stringent stabilization policy is in place.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Abatement Costs; Climate Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; H2; C6; Q5.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6383
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PMP and Uniqueness of the Calibrating Solution - Revision AgEcon
Paris, Quirino.
This paper demonstrates the existence of a unique solution of the PMP problem when both observed output quantities and limiting input prices are taken as calibrating benchmarks. This version of PMP avoids the use of a user-determined small positive number ε originally introduced for guaranteeing that the dual (shadow) price of binding input constraints be positive. Furthermore, the paper shows how to obtain endogenous output supply and input demand elasticities that match available information about them in the form of previously estimated parameters for an entire region or sector. The framework is applied to a sample of farms also for the case that admits no production for some of the crop activities. The calibrating solution is very close to the observed...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Positive mathematical programming; Solution uniqueness; Supply elasticities; Calibrating model; Productivity Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C6.
Ano: 2015 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/200491
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SOCIAL AND SCALE EFFICIENCY GAINS DUE TO VERTICAL INTEGRATION IN THE U.S. HOG SECTOR AgEcon
Helmers, Glenn A.; Shaik, Saleem; Atwood, Joseph A..
Using a non-parametric linear programming approach, our contribution is (1) to examine if efficiency gains in hog production are realized due to vertical integration and (2) to demonstrate the efficiency gains that are realized are a product of economies of scope and scale. The model uses U.S. hog sector data for the period, 1982-1997. Results indicate efficiency gains are realized due to vertical integration and can be explained by scope and scale efficiency gains. The t-test at the 5% level of significance indicates the mean overall efficiency gains; scope efficiency gains and scale efficiency gains are significantly different from one.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Nonparametric linear programming approach; Vertical integration; Scale; Scope; Efficiency gains; U.S. Hog sector; Industrial Organization; O3; C6; Q1.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35143
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AGGREGATION ISSUES IN THE ESTIMATION OF MALMQUIST PRODUCTIVITY MEASURES AgEcon
Shaik, Saleem.
The paper contributes by demonstrating the sensitivity of nonparametric programming productivity measures to the choice of model –time series versus panel models of Malmquist productivity, and to various levels of commodity aggregation compared to the traditional Tornqvist-Theil index approach employing U.S. state-level data from 1960-96. To illustrate the sensitive of nonparametric programming productivity measures, we compare the implicit shadow shares recovered from the dual values of the Malmquist productivity and total factor productivity methods to the observed shares of the Tornqvist-Theil index for U.S level data from 1948-1994.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Tornqvist-Theil Index; Time series; And Panel models; Malmquist productivity and Malmquist total factor productivity programming; Share-weights.; Productivity Analysis; O3; C6; Q1.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46553
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Productivity Change in Polish Agriculture: An Application of a Bootstrap Procedure to Malmquist Indices AgEcon
Balcombe, Kelvin George; Davidova, Sophia; Latruffe, Laure.
This paper employs bootstrapping to correct for bias and to construct confidence intervals for Malmquist TFP indices derived with DEA. It uses these results to investigate the productivity change in Polish agriculture during a crucial period of the country's transition to a market economy, 1996-2000, when Poland was preparing for accession to the European Union. The bias corrected estimates show regress in productivity at an annual rate of 4 percent. The confidence intervals suggest that between two-thirds and four-fifths of the sample farms (250) in different years might have experienced no change in productivity. The cluster analysis based on confidence bounds reveals three paths of productivity change. Farms which recorded an increase in productivity at...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Malmquist indices; Bootstrapping; Poland; Farms; Productivity change; Productivity Analysis; D24; Q12; C6.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24572
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Calibration of an Agricultural Sector Model for the Region Khorezm (Uzbekistan) based on Survey Data AgEcon
Mueller, Marc; Djanibekov, Nodir.
The paper describes the approach used for the calibration of a price-endogenous programming model, developed for the agricultural sector of the region Khorezm in Uzbekistan. Extensive datasets from farm surveys were used to parameterize the model, which nevertheless tended to over-specialization and failed in general to replicate the observed levels of primal model variables. Calibration of the model with “Positive Mathematical Programming” approaches was not satisfying as the additional cost terms introduced to replicate the observed situation were in many cases not plausible and deviated substantially from any available information on cost structure of the agricultural production activities in the study region. After revising the survey data it became...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Supply model calibration; Positive mathematical programming; Technology coefficient estimation; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C6; C8; Q1.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50354
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The 2005 episodes of the "banana war" serial. An empirical assessment of the introduction by the European Union of a tariff-only import regime for bananas. AgEcon
Anania, Giovanni.
The EU Common Market Organization for bananas has been generating international controversies since its introduction in 1992. Many thought the 'banana war' had come to an end when, at the 2001 WTO Ministerial Conference in Doha, a Decision was taken for the EU to introduce, no later than 1 January 2006, a 'tariff-only regime' which ' would result in at least maintaining total market access for MFN banana suppliers'. However, proposals by the EU for a tariff-only regime have been rejected in a two-step WTO arbitration in 2005 because they were found not to satisfy this requirement. On 1 January 2006 the EU unilaterally introduced a tariff-only regime. The paper presents the main results of a modelling effort aimed at analyzing this policy issue. The...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Q17; Q18; F13; C21; C6; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18854
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EX ANTE NON-MARKET VALUATION FOR NOVEL PRODUCT: LITERATURE REVIEW AgEcon
Dofonsou, Sika Gbegbelegbe; Lowenberg-DeBoer, James.
This paper provides a critical review of the literature on non-market valuation methods to estimate the welfare impact of novel products; it is the first study to assess both observed data- and perception-based methods as non-market valuation methods. Observed databased methods include budgets, regression, mathematical programming, and simulation. Perceptions-based methods include the contingent valuation method, choice-based conjoint analysis and experimental methods. Findings imply that the preferred observed data-based method to estimate the ex ante economic impact of a new technology on the welfare of the farm household is a combination of simulation and mathematical programming. The preferred perception-based method for estimating the ex ante impact...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Staff working papers; Dept. of Agricultural Economics; Internet publications; Purdue University; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; B0; B4; C0; C6; R2.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6327
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Sequencing Renewables: Groundwater, Recycled Water, and Desalination AgEcon
Roumasset, James A.; Wada, Christopher.
Optimal recycling of minerals can be thought of as an integral part of the theory of the mine. In this paper, we consider the role that wastewater recycling plays in the optimal extraction of groundwater, a renewable resource. We develop a two-sector dynamic optimization model to solve for the optimal trajectories of groundwater extraction and water recycling. For the case of spatially increasing recycling costs, recycled water serves as a supplemental resource in transition to the steady state. For constant unit recycling cost, recycled wastewater is eventually used as a sector-specific backstop for agricultural users, while desalination supplements household groundwater in the steady state. In both cases, recycling water increases welfare by shifting...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Renewable resources; Dynamic optimization; Groundwater allocation; Wastewater reuse; Recycling; Reclamation; Water quality; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q25; Q28; C6.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103753
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The diffusion of greenhouse agriculture in northern Thailand: Combining econometrics and agent-based modeling AgEcon
Schreinemachers, Pepijn; Berger, Thomas; Sirijinda, Aer; Praneetvatakul, Suwanna.
This paper studies the diffusion of greenhouse agriculture in a watershed in the northern uplands of Thailand by applying econometrics and agent-based modeling in combination. Adoption has been rapid by farmers in the central valley of the watershed, while farmers at higher altitudes, lacking transferable land titles that could serve as mortgage collateral, have been unable to obtain loans for greenhouse investment. The objectives of the paper are both methodological and empirical. On the methodological side, it shows that econometrically estimated models of farm household behavior are useful to design and to parameterize an agent-based model. On the empirical side, simulation results show that if mortgage collateral would not be required, then adoption in...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Innovation diffusion; Technology adoption; Multi-agent systems; MP-MAS; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Q12; Q16; C6.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50899
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Modeling Risk Behavior of Agricultural Production in Chinese Small Households AgEcon
Lu, Wencong C.; Xi, Aiqin; Ye, Jian.
This paper analyzed Chinese small-scale farmer's response to agricultural risks by using MOTAD model. Based on the household's data from the two villages Wangjia and Damao in Zhejiang province, we established "representative rural household" for each of the sampling villages. The results show that farmers in Zhejiang are quite sensitive to agricultural risks. However, different farming systems, the ratio of agricultural income to total family income, as well as the size of arable land, differentiates their risk response. The decision maker's risk preference not only affects the type of agricultural activities and corresponding scales they selected, but also have further effects on the micro agricultural production structure and stable growth of household's...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Farming household; Agricultural risks; Risk response; MOTAD Model; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; D1; C6; D2.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25656
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Optimal Mechanisms for Heterogeneous Multi-cell Aquifers AgEcon
Athanassoglou, Stergios; Sheriff, Glenn; Siegfried, Tobias; Tim Huh, Woonghee.
Standard economic models of groundwater management impose restrictive assumptions regarding perfect transmissivity (i.e., the aquifer behaves as a bathtub), no external effects of groundwater stocks, observability of individual extraction rates, and/or homogenous agents. In this article, we derive regulatory mechanisms for inducing the socially optimal extraction path in Markov perfect equilibrium for aquifers in which these assumptions do not hold. In spite of the complexity of the underlying system, we identify an interesting case in which a simple linear mechanism achieves the social optimum. To illustrate potential problems that can arise by erroneously imposing simplifying assumptions, we conduct a simulation based on data from the Indian state of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Common Property Resource; Differential Games; Groundwater Extraction; Imperfect Monitoring; Markov Perfect Equilibrium; Environmental Economics and Policy; C6; D0.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102502
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A Watershed-Based Economic Model of Alternative Management Practices in Southern Agricultural Systems AgEcon
Paudel, Krishna P.; Hite, Diane; Intarapapong, Walaiporn; Susanto, Dwi.
We investigated the environmental impacts of alternative cultural practices within a watershed under different water quality standards. We used experimental data on nutrient runoff to determine the optimal amount of broiler litter application in hay production in Louisiana. To compensate for the lack of experimental data, we used biophysical simulation models to find the optimal combination of agricultural best-management practices in a watershed in Mississippi. The results indicated that stricter environmental standards lower total profit potential and litter utilization.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Broiler litter; Cropping systems; Optimization; Watershed level modeling; Water quality; C6; Q1; Q25; D21.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43213
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How Smart Should Farms Be Modeled? Behavioral Foundation of Bidding Strategies in Agent-Based Land Market Models AgEcon
Kellermann, Konrad; Balmann, Alfons.
Land markets play a crucial role in agricultural structural change. Because the dynamics of structural change and land markets, respectively, mainly depend on the interactions between individual farms, agent-based modeling (ABM) has been established as a tool for understanding and explaining structural change and land market dynamics. This is particularly so because of ABM's ability to capture heterogeneity, non-convexity and dynamics. Unfortunately, the behavioral foundation of economic actors in ABM, i.e., of the farms, is often specified as ad hoc or simply based on "expert knowledge". In this contribution, the highly-detailed ABM AgriPoliS - which uses a myopic normative behavioral foundation - is coupled with a genetic algorithm (GA) to detect market...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agent-based modeling; Genetic algorithms; Land markets; Behavioral economics; Land Economics/Use; Q12; C6.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25446
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Aggregation and Calibration of Agricultural Sector Models Through Crop Mix Restrictions and Marginal Profit Adjustments AgEcon
Wiborg, Torben; McCarl, Bruce A.; Rasmussen, Svend; Schneider, Uwe A..
All agricultural sector models must deal with aggregation and calibration somehow. The aggregation problem involves treating a group of producers as if they all responded in the same way as a single representative unit. The calibration problem concerns making a model reproduce as closely as possible an empirically observed set of decision maker actions. This paper shows how both calibration and aggregation are addressed through crop mix restrictions combined with marginal profit adjust-ments.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Mathematical programming; Aggregation; Calibration; Crop mix; Marginal cost; Agricultural sector model; Agribusiness; C6; C61; Q1; Q11; Q17; Q18; R12; R13; R14.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24567
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Financing Agri-Environmental Programs in Poland: The Importance of Regional Preferences AgEcon
Ziolkowska, Jadwiga; Kirschke, Dieter.
The main objective of the paper is to study the importance of regional preferences in financing agri-environmental programs. The analysis is based on results of a case study conducted in South-eastern Poland. As environmental protection in agriculture is complex and often considered in political strategies, it is worth analyzing the differences in perception of the respective environmental objectives from a regional perspective. Taking into account natural conditions and the economic situation in agriculture in the voivodship Podkarpackie, the question is, how regional objectives could be achieved effectively with a given budget. Using linear programming, we discuss in this paper, how regional preferences would guide budget allocation.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agri-environmental programs; Environmental objectives; Linear programming; Budget allocation; Poland; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q14; Q57; C6.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25658
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Oil and Agriculture in the Post-Separation Sudan AgEcon
Siddig, Khalid H.A..
The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which was signed by the government of Sudan and the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) ended more than 20 years of civil war. According to the CPA, the Sudan’s government has 50% of the oil exploited from the wells existing in the south in addition to the oil produced from the northern wells. The latter represents about 30% of the total oil production in Sudan. In January 2011, the people in southern Sudan have voted for separation from the Sudan and in July 2011 the Republic of South Sudan was officially announced as Africa’s newest state. Now the CPA period is over and the south possesses its entire production of oil, but need to use the export infrastructure that exists in the north to export it. For...
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Oil; Agriculture; Sudan; South Sudan; Separation; CGE modelling; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Food Security and Poverty; International Relations/Trade; Labor and Human Capital; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; C6; D5; D6; F1; F2; H5; N5.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122341
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Who Replaces Agriculture's Contribution to Settlement in Lagging Rural Areas? An Integrated Input-Output and Dynamic Simulation Analysis AgEcon
Kopainsky, Birgit; Buser, Benjamin; Rieder, Peter.
This paper develops an integrated model for analysing regional economic development and structural change in agriculture. The input-output method allows the detailed description of a regional economy. Based on this description, regional growth pole sectors can be identified that are potential leverage points for growth oriented development strategies. Dynamic simulation tests the long term effects of such a development strategy. Model results show that external demand is the main driving force behind regional economic growth. However, development strategies for lagging rural areas have to be coupled to development strategies for regional centres. Only if the rural areas surrounding regional centres become an important asset for the development of these...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Rural regions; Economic development; Input-output; Dynamic simulation; Community/Rural/Urban Development; C6; R11; R15; R23; R58.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24586
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A Multifunctional Comparison of Conventional versus Alternative Olive Systems in Spain by Using AHP AgEcon
Parra-Lopez, Carlos; Calatrava-Requena, Javier.
Sustainability of agriculture is strongly related to the multifunctional role implicitly or explicitly recognized to it in the framework of the European Union CAP. This multifunctional role entails a multicriteria approach when assessing the performance and value for society of farming systems. Multicriteria assessment of agricultural systems is characterized by the existence of many criteria often conflicting among then, many stakeholders and decision-makers with competing interests, and lack of information. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a multicriteria methodology that allows dealing with these problems, in a relatively easy, flexible and economical manner, and therefore it is a potentially useful tool in this field, although its application with...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Organic farming; Integrated farming; Olive-growing systems; AHP; Multicriteria analysis.; Crop Production/Industries; Q50; Q57; Q51; Q56; C6.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25417
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