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Aggregation and Calibration of Agricultural Sector Models Through Crop Mix Restrictions and Marginal Profit Adjustments AgEcon
Wiborg, Torben; McCarl, Bruce A.; Rasmussen, Svend; Schneider, Uwe A..
All agricultural sector models must deal with aggregation and calibration somehow. The aggregation problem involves treating a group of producers as if they all responded in the same way as a single representative unit. The calibration problem concerns making a model reproduce as closely as possible an empirically observed set of decision maker actions. This paper shows how both calibration and aggregation are addressed through crop mix restrictions combined with marginal profit adjust-ments.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Mathematical programming; Aggregation; Calibration; Crop mix; Marginal cost; Agricultural sector model; Agribusiness; C6; C61; Q1; Q11; Q17; Q18; R12; R13; R14.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24567
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Agricultural Price Seasonality and Market Failure: Examining the Net Seller Household and the Net Benefit Ratio Definition AgEcon
Vergez, Antonin.
On the basis of a household typology distinguishing between net sellers, net buyers and self sufficient, the Net Benefit Ratio (NBR), defined by Deaton (1989), is used to approximate households' first order welfare variations when price change. In this paper, we discuss both the typology's criteria and the classic formula of NBR, since they are based a) on produced and consumed quantities rather than real marketed volumes and b) on a unique selling and buying price for all surveyed households. We propose another definition of a net seller and a new NBR expression allowing the analyst to take into account market failures (MF) and price seasonality (PS), which are two constancies in developing countries. We use two sets of data (from Mexico and Mali), to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Household welfare; Food crop; Net buyer; Net seller; Net benefit ratio; Price seasonality; Survey; Consumer/Household Economics; Marketing; D12; C14; Q12; D31; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7911
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Riceflow: a Multi-region, Multi-product, Spatial Partial Equilibrium Model of the World Rice Economy AgEcon
Durand-Morat, Alvaro; Wailes, Eric J..
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Rice; Spatial trade model; Bilateral trade; Policy; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C02; C61; F11; F14; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92010
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Global Food Production under Alternative Scenarios AgEcon
Huan-Niemi, Ellen; Niemi, Janne; Niemi, Jyrki S..
www.ifama.org
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Global food production; Agriculture trade liberalisation; Climate policy; EU agricultural subsidies; Economic recession; Agribusiness; Q17; Q18; Q54.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96333
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Impacts of EU Accession on Hungarian Primary and Processed Agricultural Trade AgEcon
Jambor, Attila.
In 2004, Hungary joined the European Union (EU) along with nine other Central and Eastern European Countries, causing several changes in the field of agriculture. One of the major changes was the transformation of national agri-food trade. The aim of the paper is to analyse the effects of EU accession on the Hungarian primary and processed agri-food trade, especially considering revealed comparative advantages, by using recent data. Results suggest that EU accession raised the intensity of trade contacts but had a negative impact on trade balance. Nominal values of both exports and imports increased after 2004, however, Hungarian agriculture is increasingly based on raw material export and processed food import. It also turned out that revealed comparative...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: EU accession; Agri-food trade; Primary and processed products; Agribusiness; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108946
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Assessing the Impact of Recent Trade Policy Changes in the Banana Market under Alternative Market Structures AgEcon
Anania, Giovanni; Scoppola, Margherita.
The paper focuses on the importance of the assumptions made about market structure and firm behaviors in empirical trade policy analysis. It does it with reference to the most recent changes in the EU import regime for bananas, namely the Economic Partnership Agreements and the December 2009 WTO agreement on bananas. The paper’s contribution to the literature on the issues addressed is threefold: it develops two original models which incorporate imperfectly competitive market structures in a spatial modeling framework; it provides an assessment of the degree of market power in international banana trade and, finally, it assesses how the analysis of the implications of the most recent changes in the EU import regimes for bananas is affected by the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Bananas; Economic Partnership Agreements; WTO; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; Q17; Q18; F13.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98985
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U.S. Cotton Subsidies: Drawing a Fine Line on the Degree of Decoupling AgEcon
Rossi, Frederick J.; Schmitz, Andrew; Schmitz, Troy G..
The impact of the U.S. cotton policy depends on several interrelated factors; how input subsidies interact with producer price supports, producer price expectations, and the extent to which price supports are decoupled from production. Cotton subsidies have a direct impact on world cotton prices, depending on the extent to which price supports are coupled to production. At one extreme, there is a price impact of 12.4% when producers make decisions at the loan rate, but the average price impact is 20.9% when producers make decisions based on the target price. Results are presented for intermediate cases of decoupling.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Cotton; Counter-cyclical payments; Decoupling; Loan rate; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Q17; Q18; Q25; Q28.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6621
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Grass-Fed Certification: The Case of the Uruguayan Beef Industry AgEcon
Boland, Michael A.; Perez, Lautaro; Fox, John A..
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries; Q13; Q17.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94454
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Distortions to Agricultural Incentives In Brazil AgEcon
Lopes, Mauro de Rezende; Lopes, Ignez Vidigal; Oliveira, Marilene Silva de; Barcelos, Fabio Campos; Jara, Esteban; Bogado, Pedro Rangel.
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Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Distorted incentives; Agricultural and trade policy reforms; National agricultural development; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; F13; F14; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48390
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The impact of an increase in wine industry exports on the South African economy, focusing on the Western Cape AgEcon
McDonald, Scott; Punt, Cecilia; Bhanisi, Sipho.
A marketing strategy undertaken by role players in the wine industry is expected to lead to increases in South African wine exports. A multi-sector analysis, which takes into account the linkage effects in an economy, was conducted to estimate the impact of an increase in wine exports on the South African economy. The increase in wine exports will be the result of changed perceptions and hence increases in the export price faced by South African wine producers. Results of a 10% increase in the international wine price indicated an increase of 0.1% in gross domestic product (GDP). The general positive effect on the economy is reflected by the creation of 5 824 employment opportunities, of which 20% is in the Western Cape. Factor incomes shows varied...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Computable General Equilibrium Models; Agriculture in International Trade; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C68; Q17.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58210
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EFEITOS DE UMA DESONERAÇÃO TRIBUTÁRIA NA ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA EM CENÁRIOS DE CRIAÇÃO DA ÁREA DE LIVRE COMÉRCIO DAS AMÉRICAS (ALCA) AgEcon
Pereira, Matheus Wemerson Gomes; Teixeira, Erly Cardoso.
O objetivo desse artigo é determinar os impactos da criação da Área de Livre Comércio das Américas (ALCA), a partir de uma desoneração tributária, na economia brasileira. Para isso, foram analisados diversos cenários que contam, além da eliminação das tarifas ao comércio entre os países do continente americano, com redução de 10% dos impostos indiretos que incidem sobre o consumo, sobre os insumos intermediários e sobre a produção brasileira. O modelo do GTAPinGAMS é usado como instrumental analítico, aplicado à versão 6.0 do banco de dados do GTAP. Os resultados indicam que, em todos os cenários de ALCA, a redução dos impostos indiretos em 10% aumentou a competitividade, promoveu o crescimento e o bem-estar do Brasil e elevou a receita tributária. O...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Integração regional; Tributos indiretos; Equilíbrio geral; GTAPinGAMS; Competitividade setorial; Regional integration; Indirect taxes; General equilibrium; GTAPinGAMS; Sectorial competition; International Relations/Trade; F13; F15; Q17; R13; H20.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/109126
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The impact of the stimulus package on the agricultural sector in Vietnam AgEcon
Trang, Truong Thi Thu; Vanzetti, David.
The global financial crisis in 2008-2009 has affected almost all countries. Vietnam was hit by a large fall in export demand and foreign direct investment. Many governments quickly prescribed stimulus packages and Vietnam was no exception. It reduced taxes and increased government spending, mainly by subsidizing loans to state-owned enterprises. The question is what the stimulated impact is, if any, and whether a better outcome could have been achieved by a different mix of policies. In this paper, we use a simple general equilibrium model to quantify the impact of the various components of the stimulus package on the whole economy as well as agricultural sector. The results suggest that, in the short run at least, the stimulus package marginally...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Vietnam; Fiscal stimulus; Agriculture; International Development; Public Economics; E62; D58; Q17.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100722
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Trade, Tastes and Nutrition in India AgEcon
Atkin, David.
This paper introduces habit formation into an otherwise standard model of international trade. Household tastes evolve over time to favor foods consumed as a child. The opening of trade causes preferred goods to rise in price, as these were relatively inexpensive in autarky. Neglecting the correlation between tastes and agro-climatic endowments overstates the short-run nutritional gains from agricultural trade liberalization and masks potential caloric losses for laborers. I examine the predictions of this model of trade with habit formation using household survey data from India, both by looking across Indian regions and by examining the consumption patterns of inter-state migrants.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Trade; Habit Formation; India; Tastes; Nutrition; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; International Development; International Relations/Trade; O10; O12; Q17; F10.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60710
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The Economic Impacts of Avian Influenza on World Poultry Trade and the U.S. Poultry Industry: A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis AgEcon
Djunaidi, Harjanto; Djunaidi, Andrew C.M..
Simulation results showed that simultaneous outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Asia, the United States, Brazil, and selected European countries will have significant impacts on world poultry trade. Assuming demand for chicken meat is constant, the global export price is simulated to increase by 9.63%. HPAI outbreaks in the United States, Economic Union, and Brazil will have a greater impact on export price than in any other possible three-region case. Outbreaks in the United States and Brazil would still lead to major impacts on world poultry trade, confirming large country effects.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Bird flu; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Economic impacts; H5N1; HPAI disease; Spatial equilibrium; U.S. poultry industry; World chicken trade; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Livestock Production/Industries; Q17; Q11; Q18; F14; F17; F47.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6539
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Global food markets by 2030: What roles for farm TFP growth and trade policies? AgEcon
Anderson, Kym; Strutt, Anna.
Rapid trade-led economic growth in emerging Asia has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade but also altering the commodity composition of trade by Asia and other regions. What began with Japan in the 1950s and Korea and Taiwan from the late 1960s has spread to the much more populous ASEAN region, China and India. This paper examines how that growth and associated structural changes are altering agricultural markets in particular and thereby food security. It does so retrospectively and by projecting a model of the world economy which compares alternative growth strategies, trade policy scenarios and savings behaviors to 2030. Projected impacts on...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Global economy-wide model projections; Asian economic growth and structural change; South-South trade; Booming sector economics; Food security; International Relations/Trade; Marketing; D58; F13; F15; F17; Q17.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124192
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Exportacion de un tomate en Canarias: un patron estacional estable? AgEcon
Rodriguez, Gloria Martin; Cano, Victor; Hernandez, Jose Juan Caceres.
RESUMEN: En este trabajo se analiza el patrón estacional de la exportación semanal de tomate canario desde el ingreso de España en la Unión Europea. Un primer examen de los componentes determinísticos de la serie revela la inestabilidad de éstos, claramente vinculada a los cambios en la normativa comercial de acceso a los mercados europeos, así como la presencia de numerosas observaciones anómalas causadas por fenómenos de diversa índole. Estas circunstancias afectan al estudio detallado de la estacionalidad estocástica de la serie bajo estudio, que reúne dos características —la frecuencia semanal de las observaciones y la existencia de períodos sin exportación— cuya consideración es imprescindible para recoger apropiadamente la conducta de las...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Tomato exports; Seasonality; Unit roots; Structural time series models; Outliers; Crop Production/Industries; Q17.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28763
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Border Effects on Spatial Price Transmission between Fresh Tomato Markets in Ghana and Burkina-Faso: Any Case for Promoting Trans-border Trade in West Africa? AgEcon
Amikuzuno, Joseph.
Cross-border trade in food commodities within sub-regional economic blocks in Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) is believed to be faster, cheaper, more convenient and welfare-enhancing than trade between SSA countries and the USA or EU. The difficulty of commodity arbitrage across borders in SSA is however a fundamental impediment to price transmission, market integration and the realisation of the welfare-enhancing role of cross-border trade. This study examines the impact of border and distance on price transmission between tomato in Ghana and Burkina-Faso. The analysis applies a linear and a regime-switching vector error correction model to estimate wholesale prices of tomato in four tomato markets in Ghana and a producer market in Burkina-Faso. The estimated...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Price Transmission; Border; Tomato; Ghana; Burkina-Faso; International Relations/Trade; C32; Q11; Q13; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108943
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The Effects of the Internet on U.S. Bilateral Trade in Agricultural and Horticultural Commodities AgEcon
Wheatley, W. Parker; Roe, Terry L..
This paper discusses some of the reasons why the Internet might have a positive effect on the international trade in agricultural and horticultural commodities between the United States and its partners. It provides some simple econometric tests which differentiate the export and import effects of Internet infrastructure and cost. It also shows that the effect may be dependent on product heterogeneity/perishability. Given the growth of the Internet over the past decade, coming to terms and measuring these effects is important to both producers and policymakers in considering the competitive impacts of this new technology.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Internet; Trade; Agricultural commodities; Technology; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; F10; O39; Q17.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19227
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Five Decades of Distortions to Agricultural Incentives AgEcon
Anderson, Kym.
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Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Distorted incentives; Agricultural and trade policy reforms; National agricultural development; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; F13; F14; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48742
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Impact of Ethanol Policies on Livestock Production in the United States AgEcon
Miljkovic, Dragan; Shaik, Saleem; Braun, Dane.
This study was conducted to analyze the direct and indirect effects of ethanol policy on livestock production. Results of the theoretical model indicate the possibility of ethanol policy indirectly affecting livestock production. Econometric results show a possibility of ethanol policy indirectly impacting cattle production through the RFS’s influence on corn quantity. Policy makers’ intentions with ethanol policy likely were to increase ethanol consumption rather than to directly affect cattle production. However, results of the reduced form equation indicate that the RFS increased the cattle quantity, which represents a direct outcome of ethanol policy on cattle production. Policy makers can utilize the information provided in this study to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Livestock Production; Ethanol Policies; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics; Q17.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98783
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