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Registros recuperados: 91
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How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets AgEcon
Mallory, Mindy L.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Irwin, Scott H..
In this article we use the theories of market efficiency and supply of storage to develop a conceptual link between the corn and ethanol markets and explore statistical evidence for the link. We propose that a long-run no-profit condition is established in distant futures markets for ethanol, corn, and natural gas and then use the theory of storage to define an inter-temporal equilibrium among these prices. The relationship shows that under certain conditions, future price expectations will influence current spot prices and that a short-term relationship between input and output prices will exist. This short-term relationship will contain fixed costs. We demonstrate validity of the theory using a structural price model and then by means of time-series...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Arbitrage; Cointegration; Corn; Energy; Ethanol; Futures; Price-analysis; Storage.; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97611
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A Comparative Analysis of Regional Production Costs of Fed Beef Produced for the U.S. and Japanese Markets AgEcon
Sankey, Lee; Hayes, Dermot J.; Clemens, Roxanne.
This study compared and analyzed actual 1989 production costs for representative regional feedlots in the U.S. The results show that grain-surplus regions have lower total costs and poorer feeding efficiencies. The analysis suggests that Iowa has a comparative advantage in producing heavily marbled beef required by the Japanese market. Southwestern states have an advantage in producing leaner beef and stand to benefit if U.S. consumers develop a taste for Select-quality beef.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Cattle production; Cattle feeding; Beef industry location; Competitiveness; Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 1993 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/62329
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MODELING THE EFFECTS OF PASTURE EXPANSION ON EMISSIONS FROM LAND-USE CHANGE AgEcon
Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Mulik, Kranti.
We present a global agricultural greenhouse gas model that assesses emissions from land-use change. In addition to evaluating shifts in and out of crop production, we develop a pasture model to assess extensification and intensification of global livestock production based on herd size and stocking rate. We apply the model to a scenario that introduces a tax on me-thane emissions from cattle in the United States. The resulting expansion of pasture in the rest of the world leads to substantially higher emissions than without the tax. The yearly average emissions from the tax are 260 metric tons of CO2-equivalent.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Land-use change; Greenhouse gas emissions; Pasture expansion; Pasture extensification; Land Economics/Use; Q15; Q17; Q18; Q54.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95944
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Inference Based on Alternative Bootstrapping Methods in Spatial Models with an Application to County Income Growth in the United States AgEcon
Monchuk, Daniel C.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Miranowski, John A.; Lambert, Dayton M..
This study examines aggregate county income growth across the 48 contiguous states from 1990 to 2005. To control for endogeneity we estimate a two-stage spatial error model and infer parameter significance by implementing a number of spatial bootstrap algorithms. We find that outdoor recreation and natural amenities favor positive growth in rural counties, densely populated rural areas enjoy stronger growth, and property taxes correlate negatively with rural growth. We also compare estimates from the aggregate county income growth model with per capita income growth and find that these two growth processes can be quite different.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: County income growth; Rural development; Spatial bootstrapping.; Community/Rural/Urban Development.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/62189
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Are Loan Deficiency Payments Too Low in Iowa? AgEcon
Babcock, Bruce A.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Kaus, Phillip J..
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18283
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The Budgetary and Resource Allocation Effects of Revenue Assurance AgEcon
Hennessy, David A.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Hayes, Dermot J..
The efficiency of redistribution and the level of government costs of revenue assurance are compared with current farm programs. The results suggest that a revenue assurance program that uses a fixed base acreage and actual or county average yields to assure whole farm revenues could provide a significant improvement over existing policies. The result derives in large part because revenue assurance works only when needed and it works on the component of the objective function (revenue) that is of greatest relevance to producers. Also a fixed base revenue assurance scheme would eliminate resource misallocation costs associated with current programs. A revenue assurance scheme that guaranteed 100 percent of base revenues would provide almost as much...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1995 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18519
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RESPONSE TO AN ASYMMETRIC DEMAND FOR ATTRIBUTES: AN APPLICATION TO THE MARKET FOR GENETICALLY MODIFIED CROPS AgEcon
Lence, Sergio H.; Hayes, Dermot J..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18956
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Long-Term and Global Tradeoffs between Bio-Energy, Feed, and Food AgEcon
Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Dong, Fengxia; Hart, Chad E.; Beghin, John C..
Projections of U.S. ethanol production and its impacts on planted acreage, crop prices, livestock production and prices, trade, and retail food costs are presented under the assumption that current tax credits and trade policies are maintained. The projections were made using a multi-product, multi-country deterministic partial equilibrium model. The impacts of higher oil prices, a drought combined with an ethanol mandate, and removal of land from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) relative to baseline projections are also presented. The results indicate that expanded U.S. ethanol production will cause long-run crop prices to increase. In response to higher feed costs, livestock farmgate prices will increase enough to cover the feed cost increases....
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Corn acreage; Crop prices; Ethanol production; Food prices; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9811
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Greenhouse Gas and Nitrogen Fertilizer Scenarios for U.S. Agriculture and Global Biofuels AgEcon
Elobeid, Amani E.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Mulik, Kranti; Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Dumortier, Jerome; Rosas, Francisco.
This analysis uses the 2011 FAPRI-CARD (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute–Center for Agricultural and Rural Development) baseline to evaluate the impact of four alternative scenarios on U.S. and world agricultural markets, as well as on world fertilizer use and world agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. A key assumption in the 2011 baseline is that ethanol support policies disappear in 2012. The baseline also assumes that existing biofuel mandates remain in place and are binding. Two of the scenarios are adverse supply shocks, the first being a 10% increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States, and the second, a reversion of cropland into forestland. The third scenario examines how lower energy prices would impact world...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Afforestation; Energy price; Ethanol tax credit; Fertilizer; Partial equilibrium model; Policy analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/107043
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PROGRESS TOWARD A SINGLE MARKET: THE NEW INSTITUTIONAL ECONOMICS OF THE NAFTA LIVESTOCK SECTORS AgEcon
Hayes, Dermot J.; Kerr, William A..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 1997 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16888
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The Impact of EEP Removal on U.S. Wheat AgEcon
Meyers, William H.; Smith, Darnell B.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Mohanty, Samarendu; Elmore, Steven L.; Rude, James; Fuller, Frank H.; Premakumar, V.; Chaudhary, Sudhir.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 1997 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18302
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Lessons from the Danish Ban on Feed-Grade Antibiotics AgEcon
Hayes, Dermot J.; Jensen, Helen H..
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93711
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U.S. Farm Policy and the Variability of Commodity Prices and Farm Revenues AgEcon
Lence, Sergio H.; Hayes, Dermot J..
A dynamic, three-commodity rational-expectations storage model is used to compare the impact of the Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act of 1996 with a freemarket policy and with the agricultural policies that preceded the FAIR Act. Results support the hypothesis that the changes made when FAIR was enacted did not lead to permanent significant increases in the volatility of farm prices or revenues. An important finding is that the main economic impacts of the Pre-FAIR scenario, relative to the free-market regime were to transfer income to farmers and to substitute government storage for private storage in a way that did little to support prices or to stabilize farm incomes.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: FAIR Act; Farm prices; Free-market policy; Rational-expectations storage model; Revenue; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18371
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What Do Livestock Feeders Want from Seed Corn Companies? AgEcon
Hayes, Dermot J.; Wendt, Noah.
This report combines existing research and further economic analysis to suggest that, with one notable exception, animal feed customer are unlikely to be willing to pay a premium for many of the genetic modifications that are under development in seed corn. This conclusion is based on an assessment of apparent economic barriers to adoption of new genetic modifications; barriers that are unique to the animal feed industry. The conclusion contradicts previous work by the co-author of this paper, Dermot Hayes, and others at Iowa State University.* First, and most important, the widespread use of least-cost rations in the animal feed industry ensures that any genetic modification will be valued at the commodity cost of the modification. This makes the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18295
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Crop-Based Biofuel Production under Acreage Constraints and Uncertainty AgEcon
Baker, Mindy L.; Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A..
A myriad of policy issues and questions revolve around understanding the bioeconomy. To gain insight, we develop a stochastic and dynamic general equilibrium model and capture the uncertain nature of key variables such as crude oil prices and commodity yields. We also incorporate acreage limitations on key feedstocks such as corn, soybeans, and switchgrass. We make standard assumptions that investors are rational and engage in biofuel production only if returns exceed what they can expect to earn from alternative investments. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 mandates the use of 36 billion gallons of biofuels by 2022, with significant requirements for cellulosic biofuel and biodiesel production. We calculate the level of tax credits required...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Biodiesel; Biofuels; Cellulosic; Dynamic; Ethanol; General equilibrium; Monte Carlo; Market; Crop Production/Industries; Political Economy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6314
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U.S. FARM POLICY AND THE VARIABILITY OF COMMODITY PRICES AND FARM REVENUES AgEcon
Lence, Sergio H.; Hayes, Dermot J..
A dynamic three-commodity rational-expectations storage model is used to compare the impact of the Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act of 1996 with a free-market policy, and with the agricultural policies that preceded the FAIR Act. Results support the hypothesis that the changes enacted by FAIR did not lead to permanent significant increases in the volatility of farm prices or revenues. An important finding is that the main economic impacts of the pre-FAIR scenario, relative to the free-market regime, were to transfer income to farmers and to substitute government storage for private storage in a way that did little to support prices or to stabilize farm incomes.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: FAIR Act; Price volatility; Storage; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18937
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An Insurance Approach to Risk Management in the Ethanol Industry AgEcon
Paulson, Nicholas D.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Hart, Chad E.; Hayes, Dermot J..
The vast majority of crop and revenue insurance policies sold in the United States are single-crop policies that insure against low yields or revenues for each crop grown on the farm. But, increasingly, producer income is based more on the value of crops that have been converted into a value-added product such as ethanol. Moreover, the recent increases in energy and com-modity price levels and volatilities emphasize the importance of risk management to ethanol investors. This paper uses an insurance approach to outline a risk management tool which mimics the gross margin level of a typical corn-based ethanol plant. The gross margin, pre-mium, and indemnity levels are calculated on a per bushel basis to enable producers/investors to utilize the product...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Corn-based ethanol; Insurance; Risk management; Correlation; Monte Carlo; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44738
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The Impact of Chinese Accession to the World Trade Organization on U.S. Meat and Feed-Grain Producers AgEcon
Fuller, Frank H.; Hayes, Dermot J..
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18447
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The Budgetary and Resource Allocation Effects of Revenue Assurance: Summary of Results AgEcon
Hennessy, David A.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Hayes, Dermot J..
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Public Economics.
Ano: 1995 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18306
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Implied Objectives of U.S. Biofuel Subsidies AgEcon
Rubin, Ofir D.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Hayes, Dermot J..
Biofuel subsidies in the United States have been justified on the following grounds: energy independence, a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, improvements in rural development related to biofuel plants, and farm income support. The 2007 energy act emphasizes the first two objectives. In this study, we quantify the costs and benefits that different biofuels provide. We consider the first two objectives separately and show that each can be achieved with a lower social cost than that of the current policy. Then, we show that there is no evidence to disprove that the primary objective of biofuel policy is to support farm income. Current policy favors corn production and the construction of corn-based ethanol plants. We find that favoring corn happens to...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Biofuel subsidies; Energy security; Feedstock; Greenhouse gas emissions; Social preferences; Value-added agriculture; Agricultural Finance; Political Economy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6333
Registros recuperados: 91
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