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Issues at the Forefront of Public Policy for Environmental Risk: Comments for the American Meteorological Society's Annual Policy Colloquium AgEcon
MacAuley, Molly K..
The lay of the policy land for addressing and managing environmental risk includes the hillock of the precautionary principle, the mountain of the practice and ethics of monetary valuation, and the tectonic plates of real-world innovations in markets and trading exchanges for nonmarketed environmental goods. This paper offers an overview of these contemporary and as yet unresolved issues and asks how each might be addressed in disparate environmental risks such as lightning, climate change, and severe weather. The overview focuses on issues that may be of interest to the American Meteorological Society's annual policy colloquium.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Risk; Environment; Public policy; Economics; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q00; D89.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10494
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Valuing the Health Benefits of Food Safety: A Proceedings AgEcon
Kuchler, Fred.
Because each Federal agency uses a different valuation method to estimate the costs of illness, it is difficult to compare programs across agencies. As a first step toward generating a consensus on the current state of knowledge and deciding on a common approach, several agencies planned this conference, held September 14-15, 2000, at the University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland. The outcome of the conference will serve as guidance for a consensus approach.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Foodborne illness; Risk; Value of statistical life; Valuing pain and suffering; Valuation methods; Pathogenic risks; Willingness to pay; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33550
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PRICE UNCERTAINTY AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AgEcon
Ji, Wen; Holt, Matthew T..
This paper examines the effects of price uncertainty on agricultural productivity. Appelbaum(1991) provided an empirical framework to analyze the effects of uncertainty on firm behavior. We apply the model to the U.S. agricultural sector, using a parametric rather than a nonparametric approach to obtain the measurement of price uncertainty and risk. Keywords: risk, uncertainty, productivity
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk; Uncertainty; Productivity; Productivity Analysis.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21736
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A Dynamic Decision Model of Technology Adoption under Uncertainty: Case of Herbicide-Resistant Rice AgEcon
Annou, Mamane Malam; Wailes, Eric J.; Thomsen, Michael R..
Herbicide-resistant (HR) rice technology is a potential tool for control of red rice in commercial rice production. Using an ex ante mathematical programming framework, this research presents an empirical analysis of HR rice technology adoption under uncertainty. The analysis accounts for stochastic germination of red rice and sheath blight to model a profit maximization problem of crop rotation among HR rice, regular rice, and soybeans. The results demonstrate that risk attitudes and technology efficiency determine adoption rates and optimal rotation patterns.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Biotechnology; Herbicide resistance; Mathematical programming; Profit maximization; Rice; Risk; Rotation; Technology; Adoption; Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Q16; Q18; O33; C61.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43724
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Vulnerability to risk among small farmers in Tajikistan: results of a 2011 survey AgEcon
Lerman, Zvi; Wolfgramm, Bettina.
Tajikistan is judged to be highly vulnerable to risk, including food insecurity risks and climate change risks. By some vulnerability measures it is the most vulnerable among all 28 countries in the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia Region – ECA (World Bank 2009). The rural population, with its relatively high incidence of poverty, is particularly vulnerable. The Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) in Tajikistan (2011) provided an opportunity to conduct a farm-level survey with the objective of assessing various dimensions of rural population’s vulnerability to risk and their perception of constraints to farming operations and livelihoods. The survey should be accordingly referred to as the 2011 PPCR survey. The rural population in Tajikistan is...
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Farmers; Tajikistan; Survey; Risk; Climate change; Tajikistan’s agriculture; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119833
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A financial analysis of the effect of the mix of crop and sheep enterprises on the risk profile of dryland farms in south-eastern Australia – Part 1 AgEcon
Hutchings, Timothy R..
This study presents a method of simulating longer-term cash flows that reflect the cumulative effects of variation in seasons, prices, enterprise sequences and mixes and other management decisions. It can be used to develop full risk profiles on a whole-farm or individual-component enterprise basis for most dryland farms in southern Australia, at gross margin, profit or cash flow levels. This analysis concentrates on the cash flow implications of these various scenarios because cash flow is the indicator which includes all costs, and therefore demonstrates affordability and the long-term viability of the farm business entity. This study shows that the role of sheep in the mixed farming enterprise in south-eastern Australia is to reduce the exposure of the...
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Whole-farm planning; Cash flow; Sheep; Crops; Risk; Farm Management.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121467
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Risk premiums and GM traits AgEcon
Nolan, Elizabeth; Santos, Paulo.
An argument in favor of the development of genetically modified (GM) hybrids is that their presence is considered to be risk decreasing. On this basis, insurance premiums for corn growers in the United States who plant approved hybrids have been reduced. In this study we investigate, using a large dataset of experimental data compiled from reports of results from experimental field trials of corn hybrids by the State Agricultural Extension Services of ten universities over 20 years, whether the presence in a corn hybrid of a GM trait, or a combination of these traits, is likely to increase or decrease risk. The effects of input use on production uncertainty can be quantified through the specification and estimation of heteroskedastic production functions...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Production functions; Yield; Risk; Skewness; Corn; Genetically modified traits; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; C2; Q12; Q16.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103692
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HOW MUCH DO FARMERS VALUE THEIR INDEPENDENCE? ESTIMATING THE RISK AND AUTONOMY PREMIA ASSOCIATED WITH PRODUCTION CONTRACTS AgEcon
Key, Nigel D..
A farmer's decision to contract or produce independently depends on the distribution of income under both arrangements, and on attributes associated with both business arrangements. Risk-averse farmers should be willing to pay a risk premium for the reduction in price risk provided by a contract. Farmers with a preference for "autonomy" should be willing to pay a premium for certain attributes associated with independent production, such as the right to make management decisions and own the commodity they produce. The benefits to growers from contracting (such as risk reduction) may be over-estimated if the non-pecuniary benefits enjoyed by independent producers are not accounted for. This study uses national survey data to estimate the risk premium, the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural contracts; Autonomy; Nonpecuniary benefits; Risk; Farm Management.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19688
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Modeling the Crop Insurance Industry Portfolio Gains and Losses (PowerPoint) AgEcon
Vergara, Oscar; Zuba, Gerhard; Seaquist, Jack.
Powerpoint slide show presenting information about AIR (the first catastrophic modeling company), weather-based yield models, agricultural portfolio loss model, and applications to crop insurance/reinsurance.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk; Crop insurance; Reinsurance; Modeling; Agricultural loss; Loss model; Yield model; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43766
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The Value of Private Risk Versus the Value of Public Risk: An Experimental Analysis of the Johannesson et al. Conjecture AgEcon
Messer, Kent D.; Poe, Gregory L.; Schulze, William D..
In 1996 Johannesson et al. published a paper in this journal entitled “The Value of Private Safety versus the Value of Public Safety.” Based on preliminary evidence from a hypothetical contingent valuation study, these authors argue that consumers behave as “pure altruists” and reject the notion of paternalistic preferences for safety in a coercive tax setting. These pure altruists consider the cost of a program that might be imposed on other voters when they decide whether to vote for or against public safety programs. The authors conclude that further empirical research in this area is warranted. This paper presents a set of laboratory economics experiments to test Johannesson et al.’s conjecture under controlled conditions in which participants face an...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Altruism; Risk; Voting; Public goods; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; D64; H41; C91; C92; D72.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51141
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More Reasons Why Farmers Have So Little Interest in Futures Markets AgEcon
Pannell, David J.; Hailu, Getu; Weersink, Alfons; Burt, Amanda.
The use by farmers of futures contracts and other hedging instruments has been observed to be low in many situations, and this has sometimes seemed to be considered surprising or even mysterious. We propose that it is, in fact, readily understandable and consistent with rational decision making. Standard models of the decision about optimal hedging show that it is negatively related to basis risk, to quantity risk, and to transaction costs. Farmers who have less uncertainty about prices have a lower optimal level of hedging. If a farmer has optimistic price expectations relative to the futures market, the incentive to hedge can be greatly reduced. And finally, farmers who have low levels of risk aversion have little to gain from hedging in terms of risk...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Hedging; Risk; Risk aversion; Flat payoff functions; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9232
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Supply Management and Price Ceilings on Production Quota Values: Future or Folly? AgEcon
Cairns, Alexander P.; Meilke, Karl D.; Benett, Nick.
Since the inception of supply management in Canada during the 1970s, milk production quota has been used to regulate output and participation in the dairy industry. In recent years, milk quota values have increased dramatically, almost tripling in value since the mid-1980s. This led to the Dairy Farmers of Ontario intervening on the milk production quota exchange on two occasions: first, in November 2006 with a progressive transfer assessment and then in July 2009, replacing the former policy with a firm price ceiling – fixing the unit price of quota at $25,000. These policies represent a significant redistribution of economic benefits within the Ontario dairy community from milk producers approaching retirement and selling their quota to those remaining...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Milk; Quota; Policy; Risk; Supply; Management; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; Political Economy.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91474
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INCOME AND CAPITALIZATION RATE RISK IN AGRICULTURAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS AgEcon
Schnitkey, Gary D.; Sherrick, Bruce J..
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Farmland Prices; Farmland Returns; Capitalization Rates; Risk; Asset Bubbles; Land Economics/Use; Q14.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/109472
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RISK, GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS, AND THE ENVIRONMENT AgEcon
Roberts, Michael J.; Osteen, Craig D.; Soule, Meredith J..
Nearly all farm business ventures involve financial risk. In some instances, private and public tools used to manage financial risks in agriculture may influence farmers' production decisions. These decisions, in turn, can influence environmental quality. This bulletin summarizes research and provides some perspective on private and public attempts to cope with financial risks and their unintended environmental consequences. Specifically, it examines the conceptual underpinnings of risk-related research, challenges involved with measuring the consequences of risk for agricultural production decisions, government programs that influence the risk and return of farm businesses, and how production decisions influence both the environment and the risk and...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Risk; Agricultural production; Government programs; Environment; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33563
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PAYOFFS TO FARM MANAGEMENT: HOW IMPORTANT IS CROP MARKETING? AgEcon
Nivens, Heather D.; Kastens, Terry L.; Dhuyvetter, Kevin C..
In production agriculture, good management is demonstrated by profits that are persistenly greater than those of similar neighboring farms. This research examined the effects of management practices on risk-adjusted profit per acre for Kansas farms over 1990-1999. The management practices were price, cost, yield, planting intensity, and technology adoption (less-tillage). Cost management, planting intensity, and technology adoption had the greatest effect on profit per acre, and cash price management was found to have the smallest impact. If producers wish to have continuously high profits, their efforts are best spent in management practices over which they have the most control.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Farm management; Marketing; Risk; Technology adoption; Farm Management; Marketing.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15507
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A modern view of Joseph's policy: food stocks as financial assets AgEcon
Adelman, Irma; Berck, Peter.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Food consumption; Mathematical models; Price stabilization; Prices; Risk; Supply and demand.
Ano: 1989 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43666
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AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS RESEARCH AND EXTENSION MARKETING PROGRAMS: HOW WELL ARE THEY INTEGRATED? AgEcon
Brorsen, B. Wade; Anderson, Kim B..
Extension marketing economists were surveyed to determine whether they are using available research results and whether research is being conducted on topics relevant to extension marketing economists. In some cases, the beliefs of extension marketing economists differ from recent research results. The research topics recommended by extension economists and the topics of papers presented at the 1994-97 annual NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management are well matched. While relevant research is being done, many extension economists desire marketing strategies that both reduce risk and increase income. Research, however, has not produced such strategies.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Efficient markets; Extension; Farmer marketing; Outlook; Research; Risk; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14726
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Factors Explaining Farmers' Insurance Purchase in the Dutch Dairy Sector AgEcon
Ogurtsov, Victor A.; Van Asseldonk, Marcel A.P.M.; Huirne, Ruud B.M..
This paper analyzed the impact of farm and farmer characteristics on the acceptability to dairy farmers in the Netherlands of an all-risk insurance package and underlying specific categories of insurance coverage. The major farm characteristics considered were structural, operational and financial variables, while farmer age was the major farmer-specific characteristic analyzed. The specific insurance categories reviewed were damage, legal, disability, liability and health insurance. The results suggest that there are common and insurance-specific factors that can improve the design of insurance policies for dairy farmers.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Insurance; Farm characteristics; Risk; Dairy farm; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7774
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Uncertainty and Producer Fed Cattle Marketing Decisions: Theory and Evidence AgEcon
Fausti, Scott W.; Lange, Brent.
This article has been submitted to the CJAE.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Quality uncertainty; Risk; Market structure; Slaughter cattle markets; Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; D40; D81; Q10.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102692
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Az őszi árpa terméskockázatának növekedése és lehetséges okai AgEcon
Erdelyi, Eva; Novak, Aliz; Ladanyi, Marta.
Az éghajlatváltozás folyamata már elkezdődött, ezért a magyar agrárkutatóknak és szakembereknek is jól működő leíró-előrejelző rendszereket szükséges alkotniuk. Munkánk célja a hozamok elemzése, az időbeni változások megfigyelése volt 1951-től napjainkig. Az árpa termésmennyiségi adatait a trendhatások kiszűrésével összehasonlíthatóvá tettük. A vizsgálat helyszíne Hajdú-Bihar megye volt. Az ún. E,V hatásossági kritérium alapján vizsgáltuk az árpa terméskockázatának alakulását az 1951-90-es időszakban, továbbá azóta. A kimutatott terméskockázat-növekedés azt a nézetet támasztja alá, hogy az éghajlat „láthatóan” változik, aminek jeleivel szinte naponta találkozunk. Megfigyelt meteorológiai változókból olyan indikátorokat ké¬pezhetünk, amelyek vélhetően...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Éghajlatváltozás; Kockázat; Termésmennyiség; Őszi árpa; Climate change; Risk; Crop volume; Autumn barley; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92503
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