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| Registros recuperados: 1.657 | |
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| Anderson, Kim B.; Mapp, Harry P., Jr.. |
| The evolution of Cooperative Extension Service techniques used to teach decision making in a risk environment is examined. Interviews of selected Cooperative Extension economists indicate that research methods used to evaluate and describe risk are more complex than those used in extension programs. Research is an essential component of the development and implementation of extension programs. Because most producers have some understanding of risk, and many use financial strategies to manage risk, and important product of risk research has been educating extension economists and researchers. When developing risk management programs, it is stressed that "simplicity is powerful." |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession. |
| Ano: 1996 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31000 |
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| Carpentier, Alain; Gohin, Alexandre; Heinzel, Christoph. |
| For the 2014-2020 phase of the Common Agricultural Policy, the European Commission has the opportunity to reduce the leakage of public support to landowners and to better target it towards active farmers. Our purpose is to assess whether shifting the basis of direct payments from land towards active farmers will significantly alter agricultural production decisions. In a dynamic and stochastic microeconomic framework, we identify the impact of this shift on the farm household’s production and consumption decisions. In the dynamic setting the production impacts of direct payments are much higher than previously quantified, because the “long run” absolute risk aversion (associated with the value function) is lower than the “short run” one (associated with... |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122447 |
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| Wang, Dabin; Tomek, William G.. |
| Descriptive statistics and time-series econometric models are used to characterize the behavior of monthly fluid milk prices. Prices in April, May and June appear to be more variable than those in subsequent months, and the spring-time prices are perhaps skewed. Econometric models can capture the historical behavior of spot prices, but forecasts converge to the marginal distribution of the sample prices in about six months. Futures prices for Class III milk have the expected time-to-maturity effect and converge to the respective monthly distributions of the cash prices at contract maturity (as they must, since the contracts are cash settled). Thus, econometric models and futures quotes provide similar information about price behavior at contract... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Hedging; Marketing strategies; Milk futures; Milk prices; Risk management; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19322 |
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| Coon, Randal C.; Leistritz, F. Larry. |
| This report provides estimates of the lignite industry's contribution to the North Dakota economy, using key economic indicators such as retail trade activity, personal income, total business activity, employment, and tax revenues. The estimates are based on actual industry expenditures for 2001 and projected expenditures for 2002. This analysis contains two measures of the relative importance of the lignite energy industry in North Dakota. First, the industry's share of the state's total sales to final demand (or exports) is evaluated. Second, the business volume generated by the industry is compared to the total gross business volume for the state. Expenditures were obtained from a survey of firms involved in lignite-related activities (mining or... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Economic impacts; Lignite (coal) mining; Lignite conversion; Input-output analysis; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23664 |
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| Roosen, Jutta; Hennessy, David A.. |
| Agricultural inputs can create negative externalities. For risk averting agents, risk will alter production decisions while the existence of institutions to insure against adverse states of nature will likely restore decisions toward levels under risk neutrality. In this paper, conditions are identified on a stochastic technology to test that risk averters choose smaller input levels than risk neutral agents, and that an increase in risk aversion reduces input use. A robust statistical method (Klecan, McFadden, and McFadden) to test for dominance is adapted to stochastic production relations. It is found that the first hypothesis is likely true for nitrogen application on Iowa corn. Weaker evidence is found in favor of the second hypothesis. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Dominance tests; Incomplete risk markets; Ollution; Stochastic technology; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20498 |
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| Lips, Markus; Bolli, Simon. |
| In eastern Switzerland there is a substantial weather risk during the wheat harvest. Increasing the number of available combine harvesters reduces harvest losses due to bad weather conditions, whilst increasing machinery costs. Simulating weather risk, we analyse harvest losses and machinery costs. In doing so, we apply both a deterministic and a stochastic approach the latter by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. The costs per hectare of wheat are higher in the stochastic approach, because bad weather conditions lead to high costs. There is no difference between the two approaches in terms of minimum costs, which in both cases are achieved by a density of 20 harvesters per 1000 hectares. Calculation results are lower than the actual density, which is... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Weather risk; Wheat harvest; Monte Carlo simulation; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9249 |
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| Ramirez, Octavio A.; Sosa, Romeo. |
| Recently developed techniques are adapted and combined for the modeling and simulation of crop yields and prices that can be mutually correlated, exhibit heteroskedasticity or autocorrelation, and follow nonnormal probability density functions. The techniques are applied to the modeling and simulation of probability distribution functions for the returns of three tropical agroforestry systems for coffee production. The importance of using distribution functions that can more closely reflect the statistical behavior of yields and prices for risk analysis is discussed and illustrated. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30838 |
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| Cooper, Joseph C.; Langemeier, Michael R.; Schnitkey, Gary D.; Zulauf, Carl R.. |
| Yield variability can be significantly higher at the farm level than at more aggregated levels, including the county. However, due to a dearth of available farm level data, much stochastic analysis involving farm yields utilizes more aggregated yield data as a proxy for the farm level. We empirically evaluate farm-level variability using longitudinal farm level data sets available from the Kansas Farm Management Association and the Illinois Farm Business and Farm Management Association. For corn, soybeans, and wheat, we compare the farm level yield variability obtained from this data to that inferred from Federal crop insurance premiums. The farm management data exhibit lower yield variability than are implied by the crop insurance premiums. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Yield variability; Crop insurance; Corn; Wheat; Soybeans; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49216 |
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| Hardaker, J. Brian; Patten, Louise H.; Pannell, David J.. |
| A programming technique, utility-efficient programming, is developed for farm planning under risk. The objective function is the parametric sum of two parts of the utility function in which the degree of risk aversion varies systematically with the parameter. This technique has several advantages over those previously available: a number of types of utility functions are applicable including ones exhibiting decreasing risk aversion; the degree of risk aversion can be limited to a plausible range; the form of the distribution for activity net revenues is flexible; and the technique can be used with available algorithms. The method is illustrated using a parametric linear programming algorithm. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 1988 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22959 |
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| Veeramani, Venkat N.; Maynard, Leigh J.; Skees, Jerry R.. |
| Crop insurance is an alternative risk management technique available to farmers for stabilizing their revenue risk and schemes based on area yield have been in operation for quite some time. Here rainfall based insurance indices and options are suggested as a replacement for the expensive area yield programs. Instead of direct premium subsidies which are distorting, premium subsidy is taken as a function of adverse deviation of rainfall from the mean. A sensitivity analysis at different revenue elasticity levels with respect to rainfall was performed. Potential for private insurer's and reinsurer's participation exists with rainfall based index and options. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22183 |
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| Registros recuperados: 1.657 | |
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