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Registros recuperados: 284
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Uncertainty in Spanish Organic Products: A Global Analysis from Consumer to Entrepreneurs AgEcon
Briz, Teresa; de Felipe, Isabel.
The organic market is a very particular one. Starting from the premise that organic products are confidence and credibility products which cannot be easily differentiated from the rest, we find that consumers face a risk when purchasing them. In Spain, the marketing chain does not follow the conventional stages in most of the cases, so there is always some uncertainty about how the products will be sold. In addition, the great majority of the Spanish organic production is marketed abroad. In this paper we show some of the results of an investigation project in this topic.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Organic; Risk; Chain; Producer; Consumer; Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7735
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Farm Profits from Stochastic and On-Farm Yields of Bt and Non-Bt Cotton in the Mississippi Delta AgEcon
Banerjee, Swagata (Ban); Martin, Steven W.; Wetzstein, Michael E..
Copy on AgEcon Search replaced with a revised copy 2/14/06.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Bt cotton; Refuge; Returns; Risk; Simulated yield; Spray; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35653
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Expanding the National Flood Insurance Program to Cover Coastal Erosion Damage AgEcon
Keeler, Andrew G.; Kriesel, Warren; Landry, Craig E..
This paper uses the results of a nationwide survey of coastal property owners to estimate the demand for insurance against erosion damage. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) does not technically cover such damage, although in practice there is considerable uncertainty about this point. The ability to insure against such losses has implications for the choice of beach management strategies and for NFIP management. We find significant demand for insurance at prices in the range of current flood insurance premiums, although median willingness to pay appears to be less than cost of providing such insurance.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Coastal erosion; Insurance; Risk; Q24; G22; H41.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43199
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Risco no mercado de arroz em casca AgEcon
Adami, Andreia Cristina de Oliveira; Barros, Geraldo Sant'Ana de Camargo.
O presente trabalho avaliou as características das séries de retornos, normalmente encontradas em séries financeiras, para dados do mercado de arroz em casca ao produtor do Rio Grande do Sul. Um modelo da classe GARCH (1,1) tipo VaR foi utilizado para obter previsões da variância condicional e verificar o risco incorrido pelas posições comprada e vendida no mercado de arroz em casca. Foram realizadas previsões fora da amostra do tipo VaR para o risco de mercado para um mês à frente (um passo a frente). A taxa de falha calculada foi de 6,45% - número de vezes que o valor observado excedeu o valor esperado – pois, o modelo falhou em 2 das 31 previsões obtidas, sendo que, uma das 31 previsões excedeu os menores valores previstos e 1 excedeu os maiores valores...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Arroz em casca; Risco; Mercados agrícolas; Variância condicional; Paddy; Risk; Agricultural markets; Conditional variance; Crop Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103101
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POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THE ASIAN CLIMBING PERCH ON QUEENSLAND AgEcon
East, Miriam; Micke, Wade.
Risk of establishment of the freshwater climbing perch (Anabas testudineus) in mainland Queensland from the Torres Strait is high. The species is dispersed through human assistance and/or attributes that assist its own spread. The species has the potential to out-compete native freshwater and estuarine species, and has sharp well-developed gill plates and spines that may choke and kill predatory species like barramundi if swallowed. The presence of climbing perch would severely impact Queensland’s inshore and freshwater fisheries, both commercial and recreational. The net present value of expected lost fishing activity due to build-up of the climbing perch is $48.5 million when the probability of introduction is 20 per cent. Analysis of potential spending...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Invasive species; Impact; Risk; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6018
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A mezőgazdasági vállalkozások fizetésképtelenségének megelőzése AgEcon
Kotorman, Annamaria.
A mezőgazdasági vállalkozások felszámolásának kedvezőtlen káros hatásai a társadalom széles rétegeit érintik. A kutatás célja az agrárvállalkozások felszámolásához vezető okok elemzése 17 felszámolásra került mezőgazdasági gazdálkodó szervezetben, hogy a tanulságok előmozdítsák a fizetésképtelenség megelőzését és kezelését. A vizsgált vállalkozásokban a likviditási gyorsráta, a saját tőke aránya és az eladósodottság mutatószámainak figyelemmel kísérése a fizetésképtelenség elkerülését segíthette volna. Megállapítható továbbá, hogy alacsony saját tőkével a mezőgazdasági termelés hosszú távon nem folytatható, ezért szükséges, hogy a befektetők a termelés jellegének megfelelő jegyzett tőkével alapítsanak vállalkozást, mert a hitelek felvétele nem pótolja,...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Mezőgazdaság; Vállalkozások; Felszámolás; Vagyonvesztés; Kockázat; Agriculture; Businesses; Liquidation; Loss of assets; Risk; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92492
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Fiducial cost-benefit analysis research: with an application to weather modification AgEcon
Beare, Stephen; Chambers, Raymond.
Environmental intervention is often seen as being high risk and high return. Traditional scientific hypothesis testing provides limited guidance to policy makers unless there is a high level of certainty in the supporting scientific evidence. Traditional cost-benefit analysis under uncertainty has shortcomings when considering high-risk investment, largely due to the choice of how to discount uncertainty outcomes. A corollary is that traditional cost-benefit analysis does not place a value on increased certainty, an important outcome of successful scientific research. A fiducial costbenefit methodology is presented in this paper, which integrates hypothesis testing and traditional cost-benefit analysis. The fiducial approach is one way of objectively...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Cost-benefit; Risk; Uncertainty; Cost-benefit; Fiducial inference; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124232
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DIAGNÓSTICO SÓCIO-ECONÔMICO E IMPLANTAÇÃO DE ARRANJO PRODUTIVO LOCAL (APL) DA BANANA ORGÂNICA NO RIO DE JANEIRO AgEcon
Pereira, Paulo Rodrigues Fernandes; Lima, Luiz Carlos Oliveira; Funcke, Andre Luis; Borsoi, Tales Neri; Santos, Rudislei.
O agronegócio do Leite desempenha um papel importante dentro do setor agropecuário; todavia, tem sofrido os efeitos das diversas políticas macroeconômicas e setoriais. De forma semelhante, o agronegócio do leite tem relevância para o estado de Rondônia. A característica da produção no Estado está centrada na monocultura familiar de baixa produtividade, donde é possível inferir que os riscos de produção são elevados. Isto posto, esse trabalho teve a finalidade mensurar o quão arriscado é a atividade de uma propriedade rural. Os resultados indicaram que os riscos são de fato bastante elevados; todavia, identificou-se que o fator gerencial é importante para os riscos permaneçam altos, ou seja, decisões gerenciais são capazes alterar esse quadro como elevar...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Leite; Risco; Rondônia; Gestão; Decisão; Milk; Risk; Rondonia; Management; Decision; Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108926
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PROFITS AND RISK: FITTING AN OLD FRAMEWORK TO A NEW AGRICULTURE AgEcon
Wachenheim, Cheryl J.; Saxowsky, David M..
Textbooks in agricultural economics characterize resources used in production agriculture into four categories: land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurial ability. Profit is presented as earned by management. This traditional list of resources is respecified. Management is redefined as a specialized type of labor and two additional resources, information and risk bearing capacity, are added. Profits accrue not to management but to those able to bear the risk inherent in production agriculture. Equity diversification is a means for farmers to provide and manage this resource and, thus, earn economic profits. Producer education and the repeal or amendment of legislation restricting the ability of farmers to diversify their equity investment are needed.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Equity diversification; Farm management; Information; Resources; Risk; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23532
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Determinants of Participation in a Catastrophe Insurance Programme: Empirical Evidence from a Developing Country AgEcon
Akter, Sonia; Brouwer, Roy; Chowdhury, Saria; Aziz, Salina.
The paper presents empirical evidence of the determinants of catastrophe insurance participation in one of the poorest and most disaster prone countries in the world. In a large-scale household survey carried out in 2006 we ask 3,000 residents in six different districts in Bangladesh facing various environmental risk exposure levels about their willingness to participate in a catastrophe insurance programme. Combining factors put forward in risk theory and economics, we estimate a model of insurance participation. We show that the household decision to participate in the insurance programme differs depending on both exogenous and endogenous risk exposure levels. As predicted by micro-economic theory, ability to pay, measured in terms of household income...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Natural disasters; Catastrophe; Insurance; Participation; Risk; Bangladesh; Consumer/Household Economics; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Development; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/5984
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SUPPLY-SIDE RISKS AND MALTING BARLEY PROCUREMENT AND STORAGE AgEcon
Johnson, D. Demcey; DeVuyst, Eric A.; Nganje, William E..
U.S. production of six-rowed malting barley has declined sharply over the last several years. Further, the quality of U.S. malting barley has suffered repeatedly due to disease. This has left the U.S. malting industry dependent on a single-desk seller of malting barley, the Canadian Wheat Board. In this paper, we develop a discrete stochastic programming model to analyze the procurement and storage decisions of the U.S. malting industry. We employ the model to investigate the impact that various sources of risk have on the industry's reliance on imported barley. The results indicate strategies that mitigate dependence on imports.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Barley; Discrete stochastic programming; Risk; International trade; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36367
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ECONOMIC RISK AND THE STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS OF FARM BUSINESSES AgEcon
Barry, Peter J.; Escalante, Cesar L.; Bard, Sharon K..
Using longitudinal panel farm-level data, this study finds that income variability may be materially influenced by farm size. Econometric results suggest that policy analyses and other considerations of the distributional effects of, and response to, income variability for commercial scale family farms may concentrate on farm size and other structural variables.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk; Income variability; Farm size; Financial structure; Farm Management; Industrial Organization.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21778
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Globally Flexible Modeling of County-Level Acreage Response for Primary U.S. Field Crops AgEcon
Cooper, Joseph C.; Arnade, Carlos Anthony.
This study takes the standard acreage response model that stems from an expected utility framework, accounting for both price and yield variability, and nests it within a flexible semi-nonparametric (SNP) model consistent with farm-level decision models for computationally tractable results. We use county-level data to estimate the response of farmers’ planting preferences to changes in revenue and other variables.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Acreage response; Elasticities; Field crops; Semi-nonparametric; Risk; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103240
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Effects of volatile output prices on agricultural land-use change AgEcon
Boere, Esther; Peerlings, Jack H.M.; Reinhard, Stijn; Kuhlman, Tom; Heijman, Wim J.M..
Volatile output prices lead to a fluctuating shadow price (profitability) of agricultural land, and therefore may impact land use decisions in case of risk-averse behaviour. In this paper we assess the effect of volatile agricultural output prices on agricultural land-use change over the past decade in the Netherlands. Using regional data from 2000 through 2009, the number of hectares of land for 10 land uses was calculated. To determine the joint distribution of agricultural activities, hectares of land for each land use were converted to land share equations. Land share equations were estimated to determine the contribution of increased price volatility to land use change. Results show that larger volatility affects land shares negatively. Producer’s...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Land-use; Risk; Price volatility; Risk and Uncertainty; Q1; D8.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122472
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ANALYSIS OF THE 2002 FARM BILL AND NEW FARM BILL ALTERNATIVES AgEcon
Taylor, Richard D.; Koo, Won W..
This report evaluates the 2002 farm bill and the effects of the individual programs within the bill on North Dakota net farm income. A stochastic simulation model was developed, using @Risk by Palisade. @Risk replaces the mean values for price and yield with a distribution of values for the eight major commodities grown in North Dakota. The counter-cyclical (target price) program, marketing loan program, and federal crop insurance benefits were separated and analyzed to determine which components were the most important to North Dakota producers. The U.S. Trade Representative offered to decrease the country's trade distorting subsidies by 60% if the European Union would lower its export subsidies 75%. The study estimates the impact of that plan....
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Net farm income; Risk; Farm bill; North Dakota; Forecast; Domestic subsidies; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23524
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Resultados economicos y riesgo en los citricos de la Comunidad Valenciana AgEcon
el Kamel, Helmi Ahmed; Garcia Alvarez-Coque, Jose-Maria.
SUMMARY: The purpose of this paper is to outline and adapt Sharpe's model to the agricultural activities as well as to measure the performance of crops when yield and risk are considered. The model is applied to the main varieties of citrus fruits in Valencia. For them, systematic and specific risks are measured and the yield índex elasticities are quantified. Applying performance rates, we determine the economic yields of citrus varieties in the 1985-1997 period. In the same way, we focus on its management based on the previously outlines criteria. Key Words: Risk, performance, crops programming RESUMEN: En este trabajo se presenta el modelo de Sharpe adaptado al campo de la producción agraria así como los métodos de medida de los resultados económicos...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Risk; Performance; Crops programming; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q00; R3.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28785
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Securite Sanitaire Des Aliments: Fausse Alerte Et Vraie Crise AgEcon
Cahuzac, Eric; Hassan, Daniel; Monier-Dilhan, Sylvette.
These last years, a fall in consumer's confidence in food safety encouraged false alerts which sometimes led to actual crisis. This paper studies a crisis due to an alert concerning a risk of listeria on a raw milk camembert brand. The investigation relies on individual data. Two results of risk economy are confirmed. Firstly, information has asymmetric effects, according its positive or negative aspects. Secondly, punctual alerts have only temporary effects on consumption. In this crisis, education and consumer's habits did not pay any role.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Food safety; Information; Risk; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9439
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Managing R&D Risk in Renewable Energy AgEcon
Rausser, Gordon C.; Papineau, Maya.
Preliminary Draft
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Research; Development; Renewable resources; Risk; Public Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37651
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A Categorical Data Analysis on Risks in Agriculture AgEcon
Uematsu, Hiroki; Mishra, Ashok K..
This study compares farm operators’ risk perceptions and actual realization of risk attitudes revealed through off-farm labor, enterprise diversification, and use of contracts, crop insurance, and other types of insurance, using data from 2001 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS). Results from ordered logit model and multivariate probit models unexpectedly found that risk loving farmers are more likely to employ risk management strategies.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Labor and Human Capital; Marketing; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q10; Q12.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98839
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Efficiency of Selected Risk Management Instruments - An Empirical Analysis of Risk Reduction in Kazakhstani Crop Production AgEcon
Heidelbach, Olaf.
Recent academic discussion regarding crop insurance in developing and transition countries has focused on weather index insurance. But empirical analyses of such schemes based on farm level data cannot be found in the literature, though this insurance type shows clear advantages compared to multiple-peril crop insurance and revenue insurance. Recent empirical applications of risk and stochastic programming models focus on the optimisation of production planning, while literature on the effects of crop insurance on the farm level mainly focuses on the empirical investigation of reductions in farm income variance. The novelty of this paper is that it integrates regionally-adapted insurance products and expert-evaluated technology choices into a programming...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk; Risk management; Insurance; Agriculture; Kazakhstan; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q14; G22; D82.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25243
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