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Cobertura del riesgo precios en los mercados de futuros para carne bovina en el marco de la experiencia uruguaya de 1993. AgEcon
Lanfranco, Bruno A..
En la pasada década, Uruguay tuvo su primera experiencia con el mercado de futuros de novillos para faena (MFN), el que funcionó durante los últimos meses de 1993 y hasta comienzos de 1994. El hecho que el MFN no sobreviviera más que unos pocos meses no implica necesariamente que los mercados de futuros para ganado en pie sean inviables en nuestro país. En este trabajo se examinaron algunas de las posibles razones que pueden explicar su fracaso. Es posible que al momento de su implementación no estuvieran dadas todas las condiciones necesarias para su desarrollo. Un punto a develar es si el bajo volumen operado en el MFN se debió a condiciones estructurales inherentes a las economías pequeñas y, por ende, imposibles de modificar o si, por el contrario,...
Tipo: Book Palavras-chave: Financial markets; Live cattle; Livestock market; Agribusiness; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; G13; G14.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121755
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Index based compensation for weather risk in the Italian agriculture. A feasibility study based on actual historic data AgEcon
Cafiero, Carlo; Angelucci, Federica; Capitanio, Fabian; Vollaro, Michele.
The paper explores the feasibility of the use of weather index based derivatives for farms' risk management in an Italian province. Based on a combination of detailed local weather data and of data on farms' yields, various possible weather indexes are found that are highly correlated with yields of the major crops in the area. Simulations show that hedging through such index based derivatives can be effective in protecting the stability of farms' incomes, at a cost that is likely to be much lower than that of the current system of subsidized crop insurance and ex-post compensation.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural risk management; Weather derivatives; Index based yield insurance.; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9261
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A TWO-SHOCK MODEL OF THE IMPACT OF CROP INSURANCE ON INPUT USE: ANALYTIC AND SIMULATION RESULTS AgEcon
Liu, Yanyan; Black, J. Roy.
By altering the probability distribution of farm income, crop insurance programs affect farmer's input use decision. Ramaswami's (1993) one-shock model analyzed the effect of the crop insurance on single input use by allowing the randomness of yield while keeping price constant in revenue determination. The total effect of actuarially fair insurance on input use was decomposed into risk reduction effect and moral hazard effect, and the directions of the two effects were examined. He showed that the total impact of actuarially fair crop insurance on input use was a) to reduce it if the input was risk decreasing and b) indeterminate if the input was risk increasing. However, the evidence from previous empirical work has been mixed. Horowitz and Lichtenberg...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19947
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A MODEL FOR THE APPRAISAL OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF THE PROJECTS AgEcon
Soliman, Ibrahim.
Social Appraisal of Agricultural Projects
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Direct cost; External costs; External benefits; Net present value; Sensitivity analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Health Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1995 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119883
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The U.S. Produce Traceability Initiative: Analysis, Evaluation, and Recommendations AgEcon
Porter, Justin K.; Baker, Gregory A.; Agrawal, Narendra.
The IFAMR is the Official Journal of the International Food and Agribusiness Management Association: www.ifama.org
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Produce Traceability Initiative (PTI); Fresh produce industry; Food safety; Agribusiness; Consumer/Household Economics; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Production Economics; Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114643
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PERCEPTIONS OF RISKS AND RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES; AN ANALYSIS OF DUTCH LIVESTOCK FARMERS AgEcon
Meuwissen, Miranda P.M.; Huirne, Ruud B.M.; Hardaker, J. Brian.
The risk environment of farmers is changing and new risk management strategies are being introduced. Beal (1996) stated that risk management strategies adopted by farmers will be in accordance with their personal preferences for risk. In this context it would be useful for developers and sellers of new risk management strategies to have insight into farmers' preferences for risk. This paper studies to what extent such preferences are farmer-specific or whether general relationships exist. By means of a large questionnaire survey among 2700 livestock farmers in the Netherlands we gathered data on four groups of variables, i.e. socioeconomic characteristics of the farm, farmers' attitudes towards risk, their perceptions of sources of risk, and their...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Perception; Sources of risk; Risk management strategies; Attitude towards risk; Questionnaire survey; Livestock farming; The Netherlands; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21507
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BALANCING RISK REDUCTION AND BENEFITS FROM TRADE IN SETTING STANDARDS AgEcon
Wilson, John S.; Otsuki, Tsunehiro.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16564
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Investment in Cellulosic Biofuel Refineries: Do Renewable Identification Numbers Matter? AgEcon
Miao, Ruiqing; Hennessy, David A.; Babcock, Bruce A..
A floor and trade policy in Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) is the market mechanism by which U.S. biofuel consumption mandates are met. A conceptual model is developed to study the impact of RINs on stimulating investment in cellulosic biofuel refineries. In a two-period framework, we compare the first-period investment level (FIL) in three scenarios: (1) laissez-faire, (2) RINs under a nonwaivable mandate (NWM) policy, and (3) RINs under a waivable mandate (WM) policy. Results show that when firm-level marginal costs are constants, then RINs under WM policy do not stimulate FIL but they do increase the expected profit of more efficient investors. When firm-level marginal costs are not constants, however, RINs under WM policy stimulate FIL. RINs...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Cellulosic biofuels; Investment; Renewable Identification Numbers; Waivable mandate; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94001
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EFFECT OF REVENUE INSURANCE ON ENTRY AND EXIT DECISIONS IN TABLE GRAPE PRODUCTION: A REAL OPTION APPROACH AgEcon
Seo, Sangtaek; Salin, Victoria; Mitchell, Paul D.; Leatham, David J..
This study determines the entry and exit thresholds of table grape farming with irreversible investment under uncertainty. Real option approach is adopted to consider the investment and management flexibility. Also revenue insurance is introduced to consider the effect of the risk management programs on the entry and exit thresholds. Results show that revenue insurance increases the entry and exit thresholds by 1% and 4%, respectively, thus discouraging new investment and current farming, as long as the revenue guarantee is less than the exit threshold. Revenue insurance increases the entry threshold by 3% and decreases the exit threshold by 13% as long as the revenue guarantee is greater than the exit threshold. In this case, revenue insurance...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20229
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Predicting the Corn Basis in the Texas Triangle Area AgEcon
Mkrtchyan, Vardan; Welch, J. Mark; Power, Gabriel J..
This study develops a new and straightforward economic model of basis forecasting that outperforms the simple three-year average method suggested in much of the literature. We use monthly data of the corn basis in the Texas Triangle Area from February 1997 to July 2008. The results and the graphs indicate that the new model based on economic fundamentals performs better than basis estimates using a three-year moving average.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Hedging; Basis; Corn; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46759
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Urban water management: optimal price and investment policy under uncertainty AgEcon
Hughes, Neal; Hafi, Ahmed; Goesch, Tim; Brownlowe, Nathan.
Australian urban water utilities face a significant challenge in designing appropriate demand management and supply augmentation policies in the presence of increasing water scarcity and uncertainty over future dam inflows. This paper considers the design of optimal demand management and supply augmentation policies for urban water. In particular, scarcity pricing is considered as a potential alternative to the predominant demand management policy of water restrictions. A stochastic dynamic programming model of an urban water market is developed based on data from the Australian Capital Territory. The model involves an explicit consideration of uncertainty via a probability distribution over dam inflows. Given a specification of the demand and supply for...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Public Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6005
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UNDERINVESTMENT AND TIMBER RIGHTS: AN EXAMINATION OF THE EARLY TASMANIAN AND VICTORIAN TIMBER INDUSTRIES AgEcon
Pitchford, R..
This paper distinguishes between the hypothesis that the Victorian government developed a reputation for easy renewal of timber rights, so that the lack of clearly defined site sizes and the short-term nature of these rights did not matter, and the hypothesis that tenure and site size as written in law was the major determinant. A model of a firm's investment choice when there is uncertain tenure is developed to examine the effect of changes in the tenure prospect on capital intensity. The predictions of this model are then used to assess the competing hypotheses with reference to data on capital labour ratios and legislation regarding tenure and site size laws in Victoria and Tasmania from 1890 to 1927.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1994 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22733
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How can allocative inefficiency reveal risk preference? An empirical investigation on French wheat farms AgEcon
Blancard, Stephane; Boussemart, Jean-Philippe; Crainich, D.; Leleu, Herve.
We focus on a simple framework on wheat producer behaviour in a context of price output uncertainty. More precisely, we establish a relationship between ex post output price level and allocative inefficiency that allows to characterize farmers’ risk preferences. Given this analysis, the connection between risk aversion and other socioeconomic variables (such as degree of output specialisation, total asset, debts, farmer’s age…) can furthermore empirically be explored. This relationship is empirically tested on an unbalanced panel including about 650 wheat producers located in the French Department of Meuse over 1992- 2003.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Producer behaviour; Allocative inefficiency; Risk aversion; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44208
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Vulnerability to risk among small farmers in Tajikistan: results of a 2011 survey AgEcon
Lerman, Zvi; Wolfgramm, Bettina.
Tajikistan is judged to be highly vulnerable to risk, including food insecurity risks and climate change risks. By some vulnerability measures it is the most vulnerable among all 28 countries in the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia Region – ECA (World Bank 2009). The rural population, with its relatively high incidence of poverty, is particularly vulnerable. The Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) in Tajikistan (2011) provided an opportunity to conduct a farm-level survey with the objective of assessing various dimensions of rural population’s vulnerability to risk and their perception of constraints to farming operations and livelihoods. The survey should be accordingly referred to as the 2011 PPCR survey. The rural population in Tajikistan is...
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Farmers; Tajikistan; Survey; Risk; Climate change; Tajikistan’s agriculture; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119833
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Managerial reputation and the "endgame" AgEcon
Berck, Peter; Lipow, Jonathan.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Bayesian analysis; Equilibrium (economics); Risk management; Risk and Uncertainty; Industrial Organization.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43912
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Integrating risk and uncertainty in PMP models AgEcon
Petsakos, Athanasios; Rozakis, Stelios.
Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) is one of the most commonly used methods of calibrating activity linear programming (LP) models in agriculture. PMP applications published thus far focus on the estimation of a farm’s nonlinear cost or profit function and rely on the recovery of unobserved or implicit information that can explain the initial model’s inability to calibrate. In this paper we use the PMP procedure to calibrate an expected utility model under the assumption that this implicit information can reveal a farmer’s profit expectations and risk attitude. The perfect calibration shows that PMP can be applied not only to LP models, but also to models that incorporate risk and this provides an interesting alternative to the traditional PMP...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: E-V analysis; Expected utility; Farm model; Positive Mathematical Programming; Risk.; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114762
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Do I Need Crop Insurance? Self-Evaluation Crop Insurance as a Risk Management Tool in New York State AgEcon
Richards, Steven T..
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122046
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Estimating Risk-Adjusted Interest Rates for Dairy Farms AgEcon
Tauer, Loren W..
Tipo: Working Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121149
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PUTTING THE RISK PROTECTION ACT OF 2000 TO WORK: APPLIED MARKETING STRATEGIES (PowerPoint Presentation) AgEcon
Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L.; Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes.
POWERPOINT PRESENTATION
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33092
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Risk premiums and GM traits AgEcon
Nolan, Elizabeth; Santos, Paulo.
An argument in favor of the development of genetically modified (GM) hybrids is that their presence is considered to be risk decreasing. On this basis, insurance premiums for corn growers in the United States who plant approved hybrids have been reduced. In this study we investigate, using a large dataset of experimental data compiled from reports of results from experimental field trials of corn hybrids by the State Agricultural Extension Services of ten universities over 20 years, whether the presence in a corn hybrid of a GM trait, or a combination of these traits, is likely to increase or decrease risk. The effects of input use on production uncertainty can be quantified through the specification and estimation of heteroskedastic production functions...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Production functions; Yield; Risk; Skewness; Corn; Genetically modified traits; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; C2; Q12; Q16.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103692
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