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| Armah, Stephen E.. |
| The paper contends that the current boom in cocoa exports from Ghana is primarily in response to reversal in price incentives to smuggle Ghana cocoa to La Cote d’Ivoire and not due to productivity gains in the Ghana cocoa supply chain. Using recent data; ADF, Perron and KPSS tests of stationarity; Engle and Granger and Johansen co-integration tests; Granger causality tests; single and vector error correction models; as well as partial adjustment models, we estimate the Ghana cocoa supply response to determine the most pertinent factors that explain the cocoa boom. Different from previous research, the VECM and ECM models are modified to be more reflective of current conditions in the Ghana cocoa sector by including prices of relevant substitutes in cocoa... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6359 |
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| Armah, Stephen E.. |
| Previous attempts at identifying and estimating a time-varying risk premium in the cocoa futures market yielded conflicting results. Using a longer series that includes the most recent cash and futures data, the existence of a time-varying risk premium in the cocoa futures market is re-investigated using LM ARCH tests and a Quadratic ARCH in Mean Error Correction Model. In contrast to available research the time series properties of the data are carefully accounted for by employing the most recent econometric techniques in testing for the presence of a risk premium. No evidence is found in support of a positive time-varying [or constant] risk premium in the cocoa futures market at conventional significance levels. The result suggests that cocoa producing... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Cocoa; Futures markets; Time-varying risk premium; Error-correction model; Agribusiness; Marketing; M. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6778 |
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| Armah, Stephen E.. |
| An Augmented Relative Price Spread (ARPS) model is employed to explain recent changes in real US beef wholesale-retail (WR) and hence farm-retail (FR) marketing margins. It is found that the surge in retail market concentration in 1999 most likely increased retail market oligopsony power relative to wholesale oligopoly power, ultimately changing real US WR beef marketing margins. The finding that higher oligopsony retail market power relative to oligopoly wholesale market power in the US beef industry was most likely responsible for the changes in US WR marketing margins in 1999 is important because it provides an economic justification for policy makers to regulate anticompetitive conduct by beef retailers. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9354 |
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| Armah, Stephen E.; Nelson, Carl H.. |
| Significant ambiguity surrounds the magnitude and sign of the effect of foreign aid on economic growth. Foreign aid can potentially augment scarce domestic capital to spur growth but foreign aid can also remove positive incentive to build wealth, stalling growth. This paper characterizes the effect of foreign aid on the growth of Sub-Saharan African countries after correcting endogeneity problems that plague the estimation. Foreign aid is found to be growth promoting given good governance and using fixed effects in a static panel framework. Data from twenty-one Sub-Saharan African countries spanning 1995-2003 was used in the estimation. The finding of a significant foreign aid-growth relationship is pertinent because it suggests that increased aid to Sub... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Food Security and Poverty. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6356 |
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