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Acreage Decisions When Risk Preferences Vary AgEcon
Arnade, Carlos Anthony; Cooper, Joseph C..
This presentation summarizes an AAEA poster.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk preferences; Acreage decision; Soybeans; Corn; Wheat; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61005
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Prediction of Loan Deficiency Payments AgEcon
Cooper, Joseph C.; Plato, Gerald E..
This paper develops a stochastic model for estimating potential loan deficiency payments to U.S. corn producers in a discrete-dynamic context. We minimize the potential for misspecification bias by using nonparametric and semi-nonparametric approaches as specification checks in the model. The model permits the forecast at planting time of the resulting empirical distribution of LDP payments for that crop year. Using this model, the paper examines the sensitivity of this distribution to changes in expected price levels.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Domestic support; Loan deficiency payments; Marketing loan benefits; Corn; Yield; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9717
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COMBINING ACTUAL AND CONTINGENT BEHAVIOR DATA TO MODEL FARMER ADOPTION OF WATER QUALITY PROTECTION PRACTICES AgEcon
Cooper, Joseph C..
Using farmer responses to contingent valuation method (CVM) survey data in combination with actual market data from four watershed regions in the United States, this study estimates the minimum incentives payments a farmer would accept in order to adopt more environmentally friendly “"best management practices"” (BMPs). Combining actual market data with the CVM data adds information to the analysis, thereby most likely increasing the reliability of the results compared to analyzing the contingent behavior survey response data only. Given the decision to adopt, the article also presents a pooled model for the number of acres enrolled in the BMPs as a function of the incentive payments. Adoption rates predicted with the combination data model are...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 1997 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31003
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Constructing Farm Level Yield Densities from Aggregated Data: Analysis and Comparison of Approaches AgEcon
Cooper, Joseph C.; Langemeier, Michael R.; Schnitkey, Gary D.; Zulauf, Carl R..
Yield variability can be significantly higher at the farm level than at more aggregated levels, including the county. However, due to a dearth of available farm level data, much stochastic analysis involving farm yields utilizes more aggregated yield data as a proxy for the farm level. We empirically evaluate farm-level variability using longitudinal farm level data sets available from the Kansas Farm Management Association and the Illinois Farm Business and Farm Management Association. For corn, soybeans, and wheat, we compare the farm level yield variability obtained from this data to that inferred from Federal crop insurance premiums. The farm management data exhibit lower yield variability than are implied by the crop insurance premiums.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Yield variability; Crop insurance; Corn; Wheat; Soybeans; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49216
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An Analysis of Demand Elasticities for Fluid Milk Products in the U.S. AgEcon
Davis, Christopher G.; Blayney, Donald P.; Cooper, Joseph C.; Yen, Steven T..
This study examines retail fluid milk products purchase data from Nielsen 2005 home scan data. The demand for seven categories of fluid milk products were estimated: whole milk, whole flavored milk, reduced fat milk, flavored reduced fat milk, buttermilk, canned milk and all other fluid milk products. Analyses of the purchases of seven fluid milk categories based on the Nielsen 2005 home scan retail data are used to determine the roles marital status, age, race, education, female employment status and location play in the empirical estimations of aggregate demand elasticities. To derive the demand elasticities, a censored translog demand system is used. The results reveal that price and income are the main determinants of demand for fluid milk products...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Nielsen home scan retail data; Milk demand; Elasticities; Fluid milk; Reduced fat milk; Whole milk; Flavored milk; Canned milk; Buttermilk; Non-linear AIDS; Censored translog demand system; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; C25; D12; Q11.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51791
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Crop Insurance, Disaster Payments, and Incentives for Land Use Change in Agriculture: A Preliminary Assessment AgEcon
Carriazo, Fernando; Claassen, Roger; Cooper, Joseph C..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Insurance; Disaster Payments; Supplemental Revenue Assistance; Corn; Wheat; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49218
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Detecting Starting Point Bias in Dichotomous-Choice Contingent Valuation Surveys AgEcon
Alberini, Anna; Veronesi, Marcella; Cooper, Joseph C..
We examine starting point bias in CV surveys with dichotomous choice payment questions and follow-ups, and double-bounded models of the WTP responses. We wish to investigate (1) the seriousness of the biases for the location and scale parameters of WTP in the presence of starting point bias; (2) whether or not these biases depend on the distribution of WTP and on the bids used; and (3) how well a commonly used diagnostic for starting point bias—a test of the null that bid set dummies entered in the right-hand side of the WTP model are jointly equal to zero—performs under various circumstances. Because starting point bias cannot be separately identified in any reliable manner from biases caused by model specification, we use simulation approaches to address...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12230
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Greener Acres or Greener Waters? Potential U.S. Impacts of Agricultural Trade Liberalization AgEcon
Johansson, Robert C.; Cooper, Joseph C.; Vasavada, Utpal.
This paper examines the elimination of all agricultural policy distortions in all trading countries and agricultural production decisions in the United States, as well as subsequent environmental quality in the presence and absence of nondegradation environmental standards. The results suggest that trade liberalization has the potential to increase domestic production and boost agricultural returns by as much as 8.5 percent. Consumer surplus would likely fall, and the discharge of nutrients, sediment, and pesticides would likely increase. However, environmental policies can limit these adverse environmental impacts and mute the potential decrease in consumer surplus, while leaving increased returns to agricultural production.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Trade reform; Environment; Nondegradation; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10195
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Do Farm Programs Encourage Native Grassland Losses? AgEcon
Claassen, Roger; Carriazo, Fernando; Cooper, Joseph C.; Hellerstein, Daniel.
Federal programs may encourage farmers to convert native grasslands—land that has never been cultivated — to production of corn, soybeans, and other crops, leading to potential losses of Northern Plains' native grasslands. Federally subsidized crop insurance reduces risk associated with crops grown on converted grasslands and, over time, increases average returns to production by making crop farming more attractive. Other programs, including Federal disaster assistance and marketing loan benefits, also reduce risk and increase returns to crop production on converted grasslands. While these programs can be important risk management tools for farmers, they may also result in unintended, environmentally damaging actions.
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121013
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The Economics of Nested Insurance: The Case of SURE AgEcon
Cooper, Joseph C.; Sproul, Thomas W.; Zilberman, David.
Traditionally, disaster assistance was available on an ad hoc basis, but the 2008 Farm Act provides a standing disaster assistance program known as Supplemental Revenue Assistance (SURE). This paper introduces a theory of nested insurance to evaluate the impact on of SURE on intensification, acreage and adoption. The results suggest that parameters of a government program like SURE may enhance the adoption and value of crop insurance to the farm sector. A quantitative understanding of the interdependencies between programs like SURE and crop insurance, taking into account the nature of the ad hoc alternative, is important in assessing the welfare impacts on farmers, as well as insurance companies. Both our theory and simulation exercise suggest that...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Nested insurance; SURE; Crops; Adoption; Ad hoc; Disaster assistance; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61579
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A Joint Framework for Analysis of Agri-Environmental Payment Programs AgEcon
Cooper, Joseph C..
This paper presents an approach for simultaneously estimating farmers' decisions to accept incentive payments in return for adopting a bundle of environmentally benign management practices. Using the results of a multinomial probit analysis of surveys of over 1,000 farmers facing ten adoption decisions in an EQIP-type program, we show how the farmers' perceptions of the desirability of various bundles changes with the offer amounts and with which practices are offered in the program.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Incentive payments; EQIP; Simulated multivariate normal; Multinomial probit; Simulated maximum likelihood estimation; Best management practices; Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20493
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ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL LAND-USE CHANGE: THE ROLE OF ECONOMICS AND POLICY AgEcon
Lubowski, Ruben N.; Bucholtz, Shawn; Claassen, Roger; Roberts, Michael J.; Cooper, Joseph C.; Gueorguieva, Anna; Johansson, Robert C..
This report examines evidence on the relationship between agricultural land-use changes, soil productivity, and indicators of environmental sensitivity. If cropland that shifts in and out of production is less productive and more environmentally sensitive than other cropland, policy-induced changes in land use could have production effects that are smaller-and environmental impacts that are greater-than anticipated. To illustrate this possibility, this report examines environmental outcomes stemming from landuse conversion caused by two agricultural programs that others have identified as potentially having important influences on land use and environmental quality: Federal crop insurance subsidies and the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), the Nation's...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Conservation Reserve Program (CRP); Crop insurance; Erosion; Extensive margin; Farm policy; Imperiled species; Land use; Land-use change; Land quality; Nutrient loss; Soil productivity; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33591
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Grassland to Cropland Conversion in the Northern Plains: The Role of Markets and Policy AgEcon
Carriazo, Fernando; Claassen, Roger; Cooper, Joseph C.; Hellerstein, Daniel; Ueda, Kohei.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61625
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Payments under the Average Crop Revenue Program: Implications for Government Costs and Producer Preferences AgEcon
Cooper, Joseph C..
This paper develops a stochastic model for comparing payments to U.S. corn producers under the U.S. Senate’s Average Crop Revenue Program (ACR) versus payments under the price-based marketing loan benefit and countercyclical payment programs. Using this model, the paper examines the sensitivity of the density function for payments to changes in expected price levels. We also assess the impact of the choice of yield aggregation used in the ACR payment rate on the mean and variance of farm returns. We find that ACR payments lower the producer’s coefficient of variation of total revenue more than does the price-based support, although ACR may not raise mean revenue as much. While corn farmers in the heartland states might still prefer to receive the...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Domestic support; Counter-cyclical payments; Revenue; Price; Corn; Yield; Pairs bootstrap; Kernel density; Combinatorial optimization; Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49864
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Estimating the Costs of Revenue Deficiency Programs AgEcon
Cooper, Joseph C..
This paper develops an approach to empirically demonstrate how the within-season distribution of U.S. domestic commodity support for corn differs between current-style approaches of support and revenue-based support. From a purely economic standpoint, the results show the revenue-based payment scenarios to be preferable at the national level to the uncoordinated forms of support currently in use, even in a situation where the annual mean payments are set equal across the support scenarios. For revenue-based support, the variability around the total expected annual payment is lower, and perhaps more importantly, the probability of high payments is lower. These results suggest advantages to this type of support, both in terms of lower budgetary uncertainty –...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Domestic support; Marketing loan benefits; Counter-cyclical payments; Disaster assistance; Revenue support; Corn; Nonparametric; Semi-nonparametric; Bootstrap; Financial Economics.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9699
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COMPARISON OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY-INDUCED DEMAND SHIFTS USING TIME-SERIES AND CROSS-SECTION DATA AgEcon
Loomis, John B.; Cooper, Joseph C..
Almost all applications of the Travel-Cost-Method demand function which include site quality variable(s) are multisite models. The results of this study serve as a note of warning that using the demand equation derived from multisite cross-sectional data to perform a benefit-cost analysis of changes in quality at a single site may not accurately predict the resulting change in the number of trips to that site. In this situation, estimates of the benefits of quality improvements may be unreliable.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 1990 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32508
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Fiscal and Farm Level Consequences of “Shallow Loss” Commodity Support AgEcon
Cooper, Joseph C.; Delbecq, Benoit A.; Davis, Christopher G..
As with the 2008 Farm Act, the 2012 Farm Act is likely to have some sort of revenue-based support for producers of qualifying crops. Much debate over the negotiations on the 2012 Farm Act focuses on new programs for providing producers with support payments covering “shallow losses” in revenue. The main goal of this paper is to develop an approach to examine the sensitivity of the farmer’s downside risk protection and federal budgetary costs of marginal changes in the deductible in shallow loss program scenarios based on the Average Risk Coverage (ARC) program in the Senate’s April 26th draft of the 2012 Farm Bill. We find that average payments are elastic with respect to the revenue program’s coverage rate. In addition, using this approach, the paper...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Public Economics.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124199
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Globally Flexible Modeling of County-Level Acreage Response for Primary U.S. Field Crops AgEcon
Cooper, Joseph C.; Arnade, Carlos Anthony.
This study takes the standard acreage response model that stems from an expected utility framework, accounting for both price and yield variability, and nests it within a flexible semi-nonparametric (SNP) model consistent with farm-level decision models for computationally tractable results. We use county-level data to estimate the response of farmers’ planting preferences to changes in revenue and other variables.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Acreage response; Elasticities; Field crops; Semi-nonparametric; Risk; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103240
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Crop Insurance, Disaster Payments and Land Use Change: The Effect of Sodsaver on Incentives for Grassland Conversion AgEcon
Claassen, Roger; Cooper, Joseph C.; Carriazo, Fernando.
Subsidized crop insurance may encourage conversion of native grassland to cropland. The Sodsaver provision of the 2008 farm bill could deny crop insurance on converted land in the Prairie Pothole states for 5 years. Supplemental Revenue Assistance payments, which are linked to crop insurance purchases, could also be withheld. Using representative farms, we estimate that Sodsaver would reduce expected crop revenue by up to 8% and expected net return by up to 20%, while increasing the standard deviation of revenue by as much as 6% of market revenue. Analysis based on elasticities from the literature suggests that Sodsaver would reduce grassland conversion by 9% or less.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Bootstrap; Crop insurance; Grassland; Joint densities; Sodsaver; Supplemental Revenue Assistance; Agricultural and Food Policy; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q2.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104623
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One-and-One-Half Bound Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation AgEcon
Cooper, Joseph C.; Hanemann, W. Michael; Signorello, Giovanni.
To reduce the potential for response bias on the follow-up bid in multiple-bound discrete choice CVM questions while maintaining much of the efficiency gains of the multiple-bound approach, we introduce the one-and-one-half-bound (OOHB) approach. Despite the fact that the OOHB model uses less information than the double-bound (DB) approach, efficiency gains in moving from single-bound to OOHB capture a large portion of the gain associated with moving from single-bound to DB. In an analysis of survey data, our OOHB estimates demonstrated higher consistency with respect to the follow-up data than the DB estimates and were more efficient as well.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q20; Q26; C15; C25.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25003
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