SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E..

Replaced with revised version of paper 12/06/06.

Removing Distortions in the U.S. Ethanol Market: What Does It Imply for the United States and Brazil?

Palavras-chave: Agricultural markets; Energy; Ethanol; Renewable fuels; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18453

Elobeid, Amani E.; Tokgoz, Simla.

We analyze the impact of trade liberalization and removal of the federal tax credit in the United States on U.S. and Brazilian ethanol markets using a multi-market international ethanol model calibrated on 2005 market data and policies. The removal of trade distortions induces a 23.9 percent increase in the price of world ethanol on average between 2006 and 2015 relative to the baseline. The U.S. domestic ethanol price decreases by 13.6 percent, which results in a 7.2 percent decline in production and a 3.8 percent increase in consumption. The lower domestic price leads to a 3.7 percent rise in the share of fuel ethanol in gasoline consumption. U.S. net ethanol imports increase by 199 percent. Brazil responds to the higher world ethanol price by increasing...

Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Ethanol; Renewable fuels; Trade liberalization; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; F13; F17; Q17; Q18; Q42.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9808

Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Beghin, John C.; Dong, Fengxia; Elobeid, Amani E.; Tokgoz, Simla; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward).

We quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on U.S. and world agriculture for the coming decade using the multi-market, multi-commodity international FAPRI (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute) model. The model incorporates the trade-offs between biofuel, feed, and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world commodity prices and trade. We examine land allocation by type of crop, and pasture use for countries growing feedstock for ethanol (corn, sorghum, wheat, sugarcane, and other grains) and major crops competing with feedstock for land resources such as oilseeds. We shock the model with exogenous changes in ethanol demand, first in the United States, then in Brazil, China,...

The Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment

Palavras-chave: Acreage; Area; Biofuel; Corn; Crops; Ethanol; FAPRI model; Feedstock; Land; Sugar; Sugarcane.; Agricultural and Food Policy.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48598

Elobeid, Amani E.; Tokgoz, Simla; Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Hart, Chad E..

Replaced with revised version of paper 11/17/06.

The Impact of Trade Barriers on Mandated Biofuel Consumption in Canada

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Commodity markets; Corn price; Energy markets; Ethanol; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18290

Le Roy, Danny G.; Elobeid, Amani E.; Klein, Kurt K..

In 2008 the Canadian government passed amendments to the Environmental Protection Act requiring five percent ethanol in transportation fuels sold in Canada by 2010 and two percent renewable content in diesel and heating fuels by 2012. Agricultural commodity and other groups have lobbied for further marketplace intervention that would ensure the biofuel needed to meet the legislated requirement be produced from domestic sources. Indeed, many of these special interests would like the biofuels content increased from five to ten percent and for the increase to be met by domestic firms only. The objective of this study is to compare the relative economic impacts in Canada of achieving a ten percent biofuel content either through increased imports or by...

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Biofuel trade policy ethanol canada; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54972

Mitigating Land Use Changes From Biofuel Expansion: An Assessment of Biofuel Feedstock Yield Potential in APEC Economies

Elobeid, Amani E.; Tokgoz, Simla; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward).

The emerging biofuel sector has drawn great interest as an alternative source of fuel for transportation. The expansion of biofuels greatly impacts world agricultural markets, since currently, the primary feedstocks for ethanol and biodiesel production are field crops and their derived products. There is great interest in the potential of countries to expand their biofuel sectors through increased production of feedstocks. The long-term potential for developing first-generation biofuels in many countries depends on a large and constant supply of feedstocks. This may be achieved in two ways: land extensification and/or land intensification. However, expansion of land area comes with a number of environmental challenges highlighted by the recent debate on...

Removal of U.S. Ethanol Domestic and Trade Distortions: Impact on U.S. and Brazilian Ethanol Markets

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Yield growth; APEC; Land Economics/Use; Productivity Analysis.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61178

Elobeid, Amani E.; Tokgoz, Simla.

Replaced with revised version of paper 12/06/06.

Market Impact of Domestic Offset Programs

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Ethanol; Renewable fuels; Trade liberalization; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18364

Brown, Tristan; Elobeid, Amani E.; Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J..

Three recent reports have estimated the market impacts of domestic offset programs, including afforestation, contained in the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES). The magnitude of these estimated impacts motivates this study. We show that with carbon prices as low as $30 per metric ton, a significant number of U.S. crop acres would be used to grow trees and this would cause price increases for some U.S. commodities. Although we present only one carbon price scenario, the modeling approach that we use suggests that the acreage and price impacts we describe here would increase at higher carbon prices.

U.S. Sugar Policy Options and Their Consequences under NAFTA and Doha

Palavras-chave: Afforestation; Agricultural sector; Commodity prices; Land-use change.; Agribusiness; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56345

Abler, David G.; Beghin, John C.; Blandford, David; Elobeid, Amani E..

We analyze the potential impact of continuing the existing U.S. sugar program, replacing it with a standard program, and implementing the standard program with multilateral trade liberalization. Under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), duty-free sugar imports from Mexico will undermine the programs ability to operate on a "no-cost" basis to U.S. taxpayers. As the Mexican beverage industry is likely to expand considerably its high-fructose corn syrup use, the sugar thereby displaced will seek a market in the United States. Under these conditions, marketing allotments could not be utilized under current legislation and prices would likely fall to the loan rate. The government would accumulate significant sugar stocks. The replacement of the...

AN ANALYSIS OF THE PROPOSED DOHA ROUND MODALITIES

Palavras-chave: Doha; NAFTA; Policy; Sugar; U.S. sugar program; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18510

Babcock, Bruce A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Matthey, Holger; Isik, Murat; Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E.; Hart, Chad E.; Full, Frank.

The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) provided a continuing mandate for progressive reforms to liberalize world agricultural markets. A new round of negotiation was put into motion in early 2000 and later formalized in what is now called the Doha Round. The Doha Round negotiation follows the same principle laid out in the URAA, with the introduction of three reform anchors: market access, export competition, and reduction of domestic support. This paper specifies the new schedule of commitments for each member country under the proposed modalities and assesses the potential market impacts of these changes for world agricultural markets. We specifically focus on grains, oilseeds, sugar, cotton, livestock, poultry, and dairy markets.

Multilateral Trade and Agricultural Policy Reforms in Sugar Markets

Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18659

Elobeid, Amani E.; Beghin, John C..

We analyze the removal of current market interventions in world sugar markets using a partial-equilibrium international sugar model calibrated on 2002 market data and current policies. We analyze the impact of trade liberalization and the removal of production subsidies and consumption distortions. The removal of trade distortions alone induces a 27 percent price increase by the end of the decade relative to the baseline level for sugar. The removal of all trade and production distortions induces a 48 percent price increase by the end of the outlook period. Aggregate trade expands moderately, but location of production and trade patterns are substantially affected. Protectionist countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)...

Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects on Grain and Livestock Sectors, and Implications for Food Prices and Consumers

Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20045

Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E.; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Dong, Fengxia; Hart, Chad E.; Chavez, Eddie C.; Pan, Suwen; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dumortier, Jerome.

We examined four evolution paths of the biofuel sector using a partial equilibrium world agricultural sector model in CARD that includes the new RFS in the 2007 EISA, a two-way relationship between fossil energy and biofuel markets, and a new trend toward corn oil extraction in ethanol plants. At one extreme, one scenario eliminates all support to the biofuel sector when the energy price is low, while the other extreme assumes no distribution bottleneck in ethanol demand growth when the energy price is high. The third scenario considers a pure market force driving ethanol demand growth because of the high energy price, while the last is a policy-induced shock with removal of the biofuel tax credit when the energy price is high. Standard results hold where...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Biofuel; EISA; Ethanol; Tax credit; World agricultural sector model; Agribusiness; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries; Political Economy; Production Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q13; Q18; Q38.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53093

Evaluating the Production and Price Impacts of Biotechnology Application in Crop Markets

Brookes, Graham; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E..

Biotechnology crop traits have been applied on a widespread commercial global basis since 1996, making it the most rapidly adopted crop technology in agriculture. The primary biotechnologies used have included technology delivering herbicide tolerance and insect resistance for crops, such as corn, soybeans, cotton, and canola. This technology has provided farmers with productivity improvements through a combination of yield improvements and cost reductions. Thus, this technology has had an impact on prices of cereals and oilseeds (and their derivatives) both in countries where biotech traits were applied and in the global market. Realizing the surging significance of biotechnology application in global crop markets, this study first summarizes the...

Multilateral Trade and Agricultural Policy Reforms in Sugar Markets (Revised)

Palavras-chave: Biotech crops; Prices; Yield; Soybeans; Corn; Canola; Partial-equilibrium model; Price effects; Demand and Price Analysis; Productivity Analysis.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61164

Elobeid, Amani E.; Beghin, John C..

We analyze the impact of trade liberalization, removal of production subsidies, and elimination of consumption distortions in world sugar markets using a partial-equilibrium international sugar model calibrated on 2002 market data and current policies. The removal of trade distortions alone induces a 27% price increase while the removal of all trade and production distortions induces a 48% increase by 2011/12 relative to the baseline. Aggregate trade expands moderately, but location of production and trade patterns change substantially. Protectionist OECD countries (the EU, Japan, the US) experience an import expansion or export reduction and significant contraction in production in unfettered markets. Competitive producers in both OECD countries...

Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model

Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Doha; Domestic subsidies; Sugar; Trade liberalization; WTO; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18604

Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Beghin, John C.; Dong, Fengxia; Elobeid, Amani E.; Tokgoz, Simla; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward).

We quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on U.S. and world agriculture for the coming decade using the multi-market multi-commodity international FAPRI model. The model incorporates the tradeoffs between biofuel, feed, and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world commodity prices and trade. We examine land allocation by type of crop, and pasture use for countries growing feedstock for ethanol (corn, sorghum, wheat, sugarcane, and other grains) and major crops competing with feedstock for land resources such as oilseeds. We shock the model with exogenous changes in ethanol demand, first in the United States, then in Brazil, China, EU, and India, and compute shock multipliers for...

FAPRI 2007 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook

Palavras-chave: Acreage; Area; Biofuel; Corn; Crops; Ethanol; FAPRI model; Feedstock; Land; Sugar; Sugarcane; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q42; Q17; Q15.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6183

Beghin, John C.; Dong, Fengxia; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Fuller, Frank H.; Hart, Chad E.; Kovarik, Karen; Tokgoz, Simla; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Wailes, Eric J.; Chavez, Eddie C.; Womack, Abner W.; Meyers, William H.; Binfield, Julian C.R.; Brown, D. Scott; Kruse, John R.; Madison, Daniel; Meyer, Seth D.; Westhoff, Patrick C.; Wilcox, Lori.

The FAPRI 2007 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook presents projections of world agricultural production, consumption, and trade under average weather patterns, existing farm policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements and custom unions. The outlook uses a macroeconomic forecast developed by Global Insight.

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7296

FAPRI 2006 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook

MODELING THE EFFECTS OF PASTURE EXPANSION ON EMISSIONS FROM LAND-USE CHANGE

The FAPRI 2006 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook presents projections of world agricultural production, consumption, and trade under average weather patterns, existing farm policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements and custom unions. Despite continued high energy prices, world economic growth is expected to remain strong in the coming decade, above 3% per annum. Other major drivers of the 2006 baseline include new bio-energy policies in several large countries, EU sugar policy reform, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) shocks in livestock and poultry markets, and movements in the exchange rate.

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7319

Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Mulik, Kranti.

We present a global agricultural greenhouse gas model that assesses emissions from land-use change. In addition to evaluating shifts in and out of crop production, we develop a pasture model to assess extensification and intensification of global livestock production based on herd size and stocking rate. We apply the model to a scenario that introduces a tax on me-thane emissions from cattle in the United States. The resulting expansion of pasture in the rest of the world leads to substantially higher emissions than without the tax. The yearly average emissions from the tax are 260 metric tons of CO2-equivalent.

Understanding the Underlying Fundamentals of Ethanol Markets: Linkages between Energy and Agriculture

Palavras-chave: Land-use change; Greenhouse gas emissions; Pasture expansion; Pasture extensification; Land Economics/Use; Q15; Q17; Q18; Q54.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95944

Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E..

This study analyzes the impact of price shocks in three input and output markets critical to ethanol: gasoline, corn, and sugar. We investigate the impact of these shocks on ethanol and related agricultural markets in the United States and Brazil. We find that the composition of a country's vehicle fleet determines the direction of the response of ethanol consumption to changes in the gasoline price. We also find that a change in feedstock costs affects the profitability of ethanol producers and the domestic ethanol price. In Brazil, where two commodities compete for sugarcane, changes in the sugar market affect the competing ethanol market.