SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

INVESTMENT IN SITE SPECIFIC CROP MANAGEMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Babcock, Bruce A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Matthey, Holger; Isik, Murat; Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E.; Hart, Chad E.; Full, Frank.

The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) provided a continuing mandate for progressive reforms to liberalize world agricultural markets. A new round of negotiation was put into motion in early 2000 and later formalized in what is now called the Doha Round. The Doha Round negotiation follows the same principle laid out in the URAA, with the introduction of three reform anchors: market access, export competition, and reduction of domestic support. This paper specifies the new schedule of commitments for each member country under the proposed modalities and assesses the potential market impacts of these changes for world agricultural markets. We specifically focus on grains, oilseeds, sugar, cotton, livestock, poultry, and dairy markets.

Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper

Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18659

Isik, Murat; Khanna, Madhu; Winter-Nelson, Alex.

This paper examines the impact of price uncertainty on farmers' adoption decision in site specific crop management using an option value model. It shows that price uncertainty could lead farmers to delay the investment 3 to 25 years as opposed to the net present value rule. Immediate investment is only worthwhile on high soil fertility and soil quality fields with high variability.

ENVIRONMENT, EQUITY AND WATERSHED MANAGEMENT

Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.

Ano: 1999

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21684

Onal, Hayri; Algozin, Kenneth A.; Isik, Murat.

This paper presents a methodology for incorporating environmental and social equity objectives in an economic analysis of watershed management. Empirical results indicate that restricting agricultural pollution notably increases farm costs. The equity objective also adversely affects economic efficiency, but the cost increase due to social equity is less significant.

INCORPORATING RISK PREFERENCES INTO REAL OPTIONS MODELS

Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy.

Ano: 1997

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21032

This paper develops a framework to link the expected utility analysis to real options models in order to capture the joint effects of risk aversion and irreversibility associated with real investments. It aims at modifying the theory of investment under uncertainty by incorporating decision makers' risk preferences and allows explicitly analyzing the impacts of risk aversion, uncertainty and irreversibility on decisions such as investment and resource allocations. It addresses the shortcomings of the commonly used expected utility and investment under uncertainty models be generalizing the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty by allowing for risk-averse investors. We found that uncertainty, irreversibility and risk aversion are important...

Integrating Farmer Decision Making to Target Land Retirement Programs

Palavras-chave: Expected utility; Investment under uncertainty; Irreversibility; Real options; Risk aversion; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; G1.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20027

Yang, Wanhong; Isik, Murat.

This study develops a model to examine the impacts of uncertainty about crop production and irreversibility of program participation on determining land rental payments and least-cost land retirement targeting in the Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program (CREP). Results show that under risk aversion only, the marginal cost of abatement and the average land rental payment are less than those under risk neutrality. However, under uncertainty and irreversibility, the marginal cost of abatement and the average land rental payment are considerably higher than those under risk neutrality or risk aversion only. It is important to incorporate uncertainty and irreversibility into the design of land rental payments and in determining participation constraints.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Land Economics/Use.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31264

VARIABLE-RATE NITROGEN APPLICATION UNDER UNCERTAINTY: IMPLICATIONS FOR PROFITABILITY AND NITROGEN USE

Isik, Murat; Khanna, Madhu.

A micro-level model of farmer decision making is developed to examine the extent to which uncertainty about potential yields influences the value of site-specific technologies. The economic and environmental benefits of these technologies arise from two sources: information gathering and variable-rate nitrogen application is higher on fields with low average potential yields, high spatial variability, positively skewed potential yield distributions, responsive yield to nitrogen, and low uncertainty. Variable-rate application decreases nitrogen use by reducing the extent of overapplication. However, in the presence of uncertainty about potential yields, the incentives to overapply nitrogen irrespective of the method of application, uniform of variable...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.

Ano: 2002

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31087

SEQUENTIAL INVESTMENT IN SITE-SPECIFIC CROP MANAGEMENT UNDER OUTPUT PRICE UNCERTAINTY: IMPLICATIONS FOR NITROGEN POLLUTION CONTROL

Isik, Murat; Khanna, Madhu; Winter-Nelson, Alex.

This paper develops an option value model to examine the extent to which output price uncertainty creates incentives to adopt two interrelated components of site-specific technologies sequentially. It analyzes how the impact of uncertainty on the sequential adoption decision differs across heterogeneous soil conditions, and examines the implications of adoption for nitrogen pollution generation and for the design of a cost-share subsidy policy.

THE ROLE OF ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION ON CONCENTRATIONS OF U.S. LIVESTOCK SECTORS

Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.

Ano: 2000

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21875

The industrialization of U.S. beef, dairy, hog, and poultry sectors has received considerable attention. There have been regional shifts in the geographical location of livestock inventories and livestock farms. This paper examines the trends in geographical concentrations of livestock sectors in the U.S., and determines whether the environmental regulations have impacted the geographical concentrations. It uses an entropy-based geographical concentration measure to determine the extent of concentrations of beef, dairy, hog, and poultry inventories and farms. The results show that livestock productions on a national level and within states are becoming more geographically concentrated. The geographical concentration of livestock sectors is negatively...

TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION DECISIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY: IMPACTS OF ALTERNATIVE RETURN ASSUMPTIONS ON TIMING OF ADOPTION

Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20401

An Analysis of the Effects of Uncertainty and Irreversibility on Farmer Participation in the Conservation Reserve Program

Palavras-chave: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.

Ano: 2001

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20658

Isik, Murat; Yang, Wanhong.

A real options model is developed to examine the determinants of farmer participation in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). This study contributes to the literature by developing a framework for ex post analysis of uncertainty and irreversibility. It extends the applications of real options models to analyze farmer participation in the CRP. The model incorporates land and owner attributes, and determines whether uncertainty and irreversibility affect the probability of participation. Option values play a significant role in farmer decisions to retire land by reducing the probability of participation. These results have implications for the design and implementation of conservation programs.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Conservation; CRP; Farmer participation; Land rental payments; Option values; Uncertainty; Agricultural and Food Policy.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31113

A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Conservation Reserve Program Participation under Uncertainty

This paper develops theoretical and empirical models to understand how farmers formulate their participation strategies when deciding to enroll in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) under uncertainty. A theoretical model is employed to obtain the impacts of various factors on the optimal bidding strategies. A selectivity-based econometric model is then used to estimate the probability of enrollment and determinants of rental payments. The theoretical results indicate that the optimal bid is positively related to the expected farming income and environmental benefit scores, and it is negatively related to the degree of risk aversion and the variability of returns. The econometric model shows that land benefits, land attributes, farmer...

STOCHASTIC TECHNOLOGY, RISK PREFERENCES AND ADOPTION OF SITE-SPECIFIC TECHNOLOGIES

Palavras-chave: Conservation programs; Land retirement; Risk aversion; Uncertainty.; Farm Management.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19264

Isik, Murat; Khanna, Madhu.

This paper develops a model of farmer decision-making to examine the extent to which uncertainties about the performance of site-specific technologies (SSTs) and about the weather impact the value of these technologies. The model uses the jointly estimated risk and technology parameters to examine the impacts of SSTs on returns and nitrogen pollution. The availability of uncertain soil information and production uncertainty can lead risk-averse farmers to apply more fertilizers and generate more pollution. Ignoring the impact of uncertainty and risk preferences of farmers leads to a significant overestimation of the economic and environmental benefits of SSTs and underestimation of the required subsidy for inducing adoption of SSTs. The model that accounts...

INCENTIVE-BASED POLICIES FOR CONSERVATION TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION: IMPLICATIONS FOR POLLUTION AND OUTPUT

Palavras-chave: Spatial variability; Risk preferences; Joint estimation; Uncertainty; Technology adoption; Nitrogen runoff; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.

Ano: 2002

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19858

Khanna, Madhu; Isik, Murat; Zilberman, David.

The cost-effectiveness of alternative green payment policies designed to achieve a targeted level of abatement by heterogeneous microunits is analyzed. Abatement costs and implications for production and government payments are compared using a simulation model for controlling drainage from cotton production in California with drip irrigation as a conservation technology.

SEQUENTIAL INVESTMENT IN SITE-SPECIFIC CROP MANAGEMENT UNDER OUTPUT PRICE UNCERTAINTY

Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2000

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21803

Isik, Murat; Khanna, Madhu; Winter-Nelson, Alex.

An option-value model is developed to analyze the impacts of output price uncertainty, high sunk costs of adoption, and site-specific conditions on the optimal timing of adoption of two interrelated site-specific technologies, soil testing and variable rate technology (VRT). The model incorporates the potential for adopting these two technologies jointly or sequentially. The implications of the pattern of adoption for nitrogen pollution and for the design of a cost-share subsidy policy to accelerate the adoption of these technologies to reduce nitrogen pollution are also analyzed. Ignoring the potential for sequential adoption would tend to underpredict the adoption so soil testing and overpredict the adoption of VRT. Cost-share subsidies to induce...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis.

Ano: 2001

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31161

AGRICULTURAL MARKETS LIBERALIZATION AND THE DOHA ROUND

Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Beghin, John C.; de Cara, Stephane; Fang, Cheng; Isik, Murat; Matthey, Holger.

Using a partial equilibrium model of world agriculture, we investigate the multilateral removal of all border taxes and farm programs and their distortion of world agricultural markets. These distortions have significant terms-of-trade effects. World trade is also significantly impacted by both types of distortions. Trade expansion is substantial for most commodities, especially dairy, meats, and vegetable oils. Net agricultural and food exporters (Brazil, Australia, and Argentina) emerge with expanded exports; whereas net importing countries with limited distortions before liberalization are penalized by higher world markets prices and reduced imports. The US gains significant export shares in livestock products and imports more dairy products....

Integrating Farmer Decision-Making to Target Land Retirement Programs

Palavras-chave: Doha; Agriculture; Trade liberalization; Domestic policy; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25875

Yang, Wanhong; Isik, Murat.

This paper develops a model to examine the impacts of uncertainty about crop production and irreversibility of program participation on determining land rental payments and least-cost land retirement targeting in the Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program. Results show that under risk aversion only, the marginal cost of abatement and the average land rental payment are less than those under risk neutrality. However, under uncertainty and irreversibility, the marginal cost and the average land rental payment are considerably higher than those under risk neutrality or risk aversion only. It is important to incorporate uncertainty and irreversibility into the design of land rental payments and in determining participation constraints.

The Role of Land Retirement Programs for Management of Water Resources

Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Land Economics/Use.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22062

A MODEL OF ENTRY-EXIT DECISIONS AND CAPACITY CHOICE UNDER DEMAND UNCERTAINTY

Palavras-chave: Land Economics/Use.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19542

Isik, Murat; Coble, Keith H.; Hudson, Darren; House, Lisa.

Many investment decisions of agribusiness firms such as when to invest in an emerging market or whether to expand the capacity of the firm involve irreversible investment and uncertainty about demand, cost or competition. This paper uses an option-value model to examine the factors affecting an agribusiness firm's decision whether and how much to invest in an emerging market under demand uncertainty. Demand uncertainty and irreversibility of investment make investment less desirable than the net present value (NPV) rule indicates. The inactive firm is more reluctant to enter the market when it takes into account demand uncertainty because it preserves the opportunity of making a better investment later. The active firm is more reluctant to abandon the...