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Registros recuperados: 144
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Risk Assessment in Economic Feasibility Analysis: The Case of Ethanol Production in Texas AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Herbst, Brian K.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Anderson, David P.; Klose, Steven L.; Gill, Robert Chope, II.
The objective of this study is to demonstrate the benefits of quantifying the economic viability of a proposed agribusiness under risk relative to a feasibility study which ignores risk. To achieve this objective, the economic viability of a 50 MMGPY ethanol facility in Texas is analyzed over a 10-year period in two ways: with no risk and with historical risk for prices and costs.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42095
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Impacts of Budget Reconciliation on U.S. Crop Producers AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Raulston, J. Marc; Knapek, George M..
The President has called for a $6.96 billion savings in expenditures to agriculture over a five year period. A budget reconciliation is required to achieve these targeted savings from farm bill authorized expenditures. This study uses optimal control theory and farm level simulation to quantify the impacts on U.S. crop producers of reducing federal spending for agricultural income supports. Results indicate that the least harmful method for the Agricultural Committees to achieve budget savings of $3 billion is to reduce loan rates. At higher levels of net budget savings, some risk adverse decision makers would prefer that the Committees reduce target prices.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19540
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Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the January 2003 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Anderson, David P.; Sartwelle, James D., III; Schwart, Robert B., Jr.; Schumann, Keith D.; Feldman, Paul A.; Raulston, J. Marc; Klose, Steven L..
The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 on representative crop and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2001-2007 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: - Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms. - Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) January 2003 Baseline. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical risk faced by farmers for prices and...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42699
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Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the January 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Knapek, George M.; Raulston, J. Marc; Herbst, Brian K.; Fumasi, Roland J.; Anderson, David P.; Klose, Steven L..
The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 on representative crop and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2005-2012 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: • Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms, and • Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) January 2007 Baseline. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical risk faced by farmers for prices...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42086
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Regional and Structural Impacts of Alternative Dairy Policy Options AgEcon
Anderson, David P.; Herbst, Brian K.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Richardson, James W..
Milk and dairy product prices have fallen to their lowest levels in 3 years following the record highs of 2004 and 2005. The large government stockpiles of non-fat dry milk are gone, but threaten to build again as non-fat dry milk and cheese prices decline nearer the support price level. A new farm bill is scheduled to be written in 2007. The Milk Income Loss Contract (MILC) program included in the last farm bill was only authorized through September 2005. Subsequent legislation reinstated the MILC program through August 2007. WTO negotiations are on-going and could influence U.S. farm programs 1/. Dairy’s role in the U.S. amber box limit of $19.1 billion may necessitate some possible trade-offs with other commodities. Dairy counts about $4.2 billion...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42094
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RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN MARKET PRICE SIGNALS AND PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT: THE CASE OF FED BEEF AgEcon
Outlaw, Joe L.; Anderson, David P.; Padberg, Daniel I..
The beef industry in the United States consists of several distinct production levels ranging from the cow-calf producer at the lowest level to the final consumer. These sectors face varying levels of profitability, degrees of market power, conflicting goals, and price signals. Environmental regulations involve questions of what costs are involved, who is in a position to pay these costs, and whether market prices are capable of signaling different environmental practices. Understanding the relationships within the beef industry may allow researchers to fine-tune analyses of environmental issues in the beef industry.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Beef; BMP; Cattle; Pricing; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 1997 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15528
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Economic Outlook for Representative Cotton Farms Given the August 2005 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline AgEcon
Outlaw, Joe L.; Richardson, James W.; Raulston, J. Marc; Knapek, George M.; Feldman, Paul A..
The Agricultural and Food Policy Center (AFPC) at Texas A&M University develops and maintains data to simulate eighteen representative cotton operations in major production areas of seven states. The chief purpose of this analysis is to project those farms’ economic viability for 2005 through 2009. The data necessary to simulate the economic activity of these operations is developed through ongoing cooperation with panels of agricultural producers in each of these states. The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) provided projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates in their August 2005 Baseline. Under the August 2005 Baseline, only the moderately sized Tennessee cotton farm (TNC1900) and Louisiana cotton farm...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42106
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Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the November 2002 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Anderson, David P.; Sartwelle, James D., III; Schwart, Robert B., Jr.; Schumann, Keith D.; Klose, Steven L..
The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 on representative crop and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2001-2007 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: - Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms. - Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) November 2002 Baseline. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical risk faced by farmers for prices and...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42703
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Financial Impacts of Regional Differences in Dairies AgEcon
Outlaw, Joe L.; Herbst, Brian K.; Richardson, James W.; Anderson, David P..
The sensitivity of net cash farm income to changes in selected production variables, output prices, and input costs varies significantly across representative U.S. dairies. Different regions of the country were impacted differently by changes to production and prices.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Q12; Q14.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34937
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Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the January 2004 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline AgEcon
Outlaw, Joe L.; Richardson, James W.; Herbst, Brian K.; Anderson, David P.; Sartwelle, James D., III; Raulston, J. Marc; Feldman, Paul A.; Schumann, Keith D.; Klose, Steven L.; Schwart, Robert B., Jr.; Zimmel, Peter.
The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 on representative crop and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2001-2008 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming and ranching operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: - Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms. - Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) January 2004 Baseline. The primary objective of the analysis is to determine the farms’ economic viability by...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42683
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Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the December 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Knapek, George M.; Raulston, J. Marc; Herbst, Brian K.; Fumasi, Roland J.; Anderson, David P.; Bryant, Henry L.; Klose, Steven L.; Zimmel, Peter.
The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (2002 Farm Bill) on representative crop, dairy, and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2007-2012 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate agricultural operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: • Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms. • Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) December 2007 Baseline. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical risk...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37977
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Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the December 2006 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline AgEcon
Outlaw, Joe L.; Richardson, James W.; Knapek, George M.; Raulston, J. Marc; Herbst, Brian K.; Fumasi, Roland J.; Anderson, David P.; Klose, Steven L.; Zimmel, Peter.
Under the December 2006 Baseline, 25 of the 65 crop farms are considered in good liquidity condition (less than a 25 percent chance of negative ending cash in 2011). Five crop farms have between a 25 percent and a 50 percent likelihood of negative ending cash. The remaining 35 crop farms have greater than a 50 percent chance of negative ending cash. Additionally, 33 of the 65 crop farms are considered in good equity position (less than a 25 percent chance of decreasing real net worth during the study period). Eight crop farms have between a 25 percent and 50 percent likelihood of losing real net worth, and 24 crop farms have greater than a 50 percent probability of decreasing real net worth. The following discussion provides an overall evaluation by...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42089
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Analysis of the Effects of Proposed House and Senate Farm Bills on Rice Returns AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Klose, Steven L.; Anderson, David P.; Womack, Abner W..
This report reflects analysis of projected gross returns under the proposed farm programs – H.R. 2646 the House Bill that passed the House floor on October 5th, the Senate Bill that passed the Senate Agriculture Committee on November 15th and the Cochran/Roberts Bill that was defeated previously in committee.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42722
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Rice World Market Prices AgEcon
Bryant, Henry L.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Anderson, David P..
The marketing loan program associated with rice features benefits calculated using a USDA-announced World Market Price (WMP) rather than the posted county prices that are used for most other commodities. This results in reduced risk protection for producers relative to other crops, and greater difficulty in making optimal use of program benefits. This research investigates the rice WMP, identifying the relative importance of various foreign prices and other potential influencing factors. The results of this research have important implications for financial planning and optimal risk management strategies for rice producers.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19178
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Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the November 2002 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Anderson, David P.; Sartwelle, James D., III; Feldman, Paul A.; Schumann, Keith D.; Klose, Steven L.; Schwart, Robert B., Jr.; Zimmel, Peter.
The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 on representative crop and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2001-2007 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: - Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms. - Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) November 2002 Baseline. The primary objective of the analysis is to determine the farms’ economic viability by region and...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42709
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Outlook for Texas Representative Cotton Farms AgEcon
Outlaw, Joe L.; Raulston, J. Marc; Richardson, James W.; Sartwelle, James D., III; Herbst, Brian K..
The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 are projected for representative Texas cotton farms. The analysis was conducted over the 2001-2008 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming operations in Texas’ major cotton production regions came from two sources: - Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative cotton farms. - Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) August 2004 Baseline. The primary objective of the analysis is to determine cotton farms’ economic viability by region through 2008, assuming provisions of the 2002...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42674
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Economic Outlook for the Texas Representative Cotton Farms Given the August 2005 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline AgEcon
Outlaw, Joe L.; Richardson, James W.; Raulston, J. Marc; Knapek, George M.; Feldman, Paul A..
The Agricultural and Food Policy Center (AFPC) at Texas A&M University develops and maintains data to simulate eleven representative cotton operations in major production areas across Texas. The chief purpose of this analysis is to project those farms’ economic viability for 2005 through 2009. The data necessary to simulate the economic activity of these operations is developed through ongoing cooperation with panels of agricultural producers throughout the state. The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) provided projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates in their August 2005 Baseline. Under the August 2005 Baseline, none of the Texas representative cotton farms are classified in good liquidity condition (less than...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42107
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Does Crop Insurance Reduce the Need for Cash Reserves in Savings Accounts? AgEcon
Raulston, J. Marc; Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Knapek, George M..
One of the most fundamental and traditional risk management tools available to agricultural producers is a savings account. Cash reserves in savings provide a safety net for producers, allowing financial obligations and living expenses to be met when unexpected shortfalls in income occur. Crop insurance, another risk management tool, likely reduces the cash reserves required to be held in savings as it aids in mitigating risks ranging from total disasters to uncertainties in market conditions. This study utilizes a stochastic farm level simulation model in a representative farm framework to evaluate the impacts of alternative crop insurance scenarios on levels of savings necessary to maintain target ending cash reserve numbers for producers in major...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Crop Insurance; Multiple Peril Crop Insurance; Crop Revenue Coverage; Stochastic Simulation; Representative Farm; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56413
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AFPC Review of County Loan Rates for Sorghum and Corn AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Knapek, George M.; Herbst, Brian K..
The Agricultural & Food Policy Center (AFPC) updated the comparison of corn and sorghum county loan rates following the general methodology outlined in the October 2002 Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) study on corn and sorghum loan rates. The study answers two questions: 1. Are the 2006 county loan rates established by USDA consistent with the Congressional mandate that national average loan rates for both commodities be $1.95 per bushel? 2. What would be the impact if USDA were to adopt a different weighting scheme in setting county loan rates while continuing to maintain the mandated national average loan rate? Specifically, what would be the impact on sorghum loan rates if each county’s loan rate were weighted by the county’s...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42083
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The Effects of Sex-Sorted Semen on Southern Dairy Farms AgEcon
Herbst, Brian K.; Anderson, David P.; Outlaw, Joe L.; Richardson, James W.; Bilby, Todd.
This paper examines the impact of sex-sorted semen adoption on dairy farm level economics. Representative dairies are used to simulate the financial impacts of moving to this new technology. Key economic, financial and herd dynamics will be compared among dairies to show how the uses of sex-sorted semen will affect dairy farms. All seven of the representative dairies that were analyzed sold surplus replacement heifers using sex-sorted semen. The increase use of sex-sorted semen can have very positive impacts on dairies throughout the Southern United States.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Dairy production; Sex sorted semen; Production economics; Scenario analysis; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46814
Registros recuperados: 144
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