SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Eichman, Henry; Hunt, Gary L.; Kerkvliet, Joe; Plantinga, Andrew J..

Debates over protecting public land reveal two views. Some argue protection reduces commodity production, reducing local employment and increasing out-migration. Others contend protection produces amenities that support job growth and attract migrants. We test these competing views for the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP), which reallocated 11 million acres of federal land from timber production to protecting old-growth forest species. We find evidence that land protection directly reduced local employment growth and increased net migration. The total negative effect on employment was offset only slightly by positive migration-driven effects. Employment losses were concentrated in metropolitan counties, but percentage losses were higher in rural counties.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Amenities; Employment growth; Migration; Northwest Forest Plan; Oldgrowth forests; Public land management; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Land Economics/Use.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93222

What Drives Land-Use Change in the United States? A National Analysis of Landowner Decisions

Lubowski, Ruben N.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Stavins, Robert N..

Land-use changes involve important economic and environmental effects with implications for international trade, global climate change, wildlife, and other policy issues. We use an econometric model to identify factors driving land-use change in the United States between 1982 and 1997. We quantify the effects of net returns to alternative land uses on private landowners’ decisions to allocate land among six major uses, drawing on detailed micro-data on land use and land quality that are comprehensive of the contiguous U.S. This analysis provides the first evidence of the relative historical importance of markets and Federal farm policies affecting land-use changes nationally.

AGRICULTURAL LAND VALUES AND FUTURE LAND DEVELOPMENT

Palavras-chave: Land Use; Land-Use Change; Econometric Analysis; Simulations; Land Economics/Use; O51; Q15.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44534

Plantinga, Andrew J.; Miller, Douglas J..

We develop a theoretical model of land prices and urban expansion and derive a reduced-form expression for agricultural land values. This result dictates the specification of our econometric model in terms of variable choice and functional form. We find strong support for the model in an application to New York.

AMENITIES IN AN URBAN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL: RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IN PORTLAND, OREGON

Palavras-chave: Land Economics/Use.

Ano: 1999

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21558

Wu, JunJie; Adams, Richard M.; Plantinga, Andrew J..

This paper analyzes the effect of open space and other amenities on housing prices and development density within the framework of an urban equilibrium model. The model is estimated as a system of equations that includes households' residential choice decisions and developers' development decisions and emphasizes the importance of amenities in the formation of development patterns and property values. The model is applied to Portland, Oregon, where ambitious open space programs have been implemented. The results suggest that amenities are important: households are willing to pay more for newer houses located in areas of less dense development, with more open space, better views, less traffic congestion, and near amenity locations. For the developer,...

INTERNAL CONSISTENCY IN MODELS OF OPTIMAL RESOURCE USE UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Palavras-chave: Community/Rural/Urban Development; R11; R21; R31.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21961

Plantinga, Andrew J.; Provencher, Bill.

For several decades, economists have been concerned with the problem of optimal resource use under uncertainty. In many studies, researchers assume that prices evolve according to an exogenous stochastic process and solve the corresponding dynamic optimization problem to yield an optimal decision rule for exploitation of the resource. This study is motivated by our attempt to understand the relationship between efficiency in resource markets and optimal harvest decisions in which price is an exogenous state variable. The literature on optimal commodity storage finds that in a rational expectations equilibrium commodity prices are stationary and serially correlated. Yet recent papers on optimal timber harvesting that assume exogenous stationary prices...

PUBLIC CONSERVATION LAND AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN THE NORTHERN FOREST REGION

Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2001

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20712

Lewis, David A.; Hunt, Gary L.; Plantinga, Andrew J..

As with many environmental issues, debates about increasing public conservation lands in the Northern Forest region frequently center on a perceived tradeoff between jobs and the environment. In particular, opponents of conservation lands often argue that employment will decline significantly when land is diverted from commodity-oriented uses such as wood products production. To evaluate this claim, we estimate a model of simultaneous employment and net migration growth using data on the 92 non-metropolitan counties comprising the region. Growth in employment and net migration are measured over the period 1990 to 1997 and the set of exogenous variables includes the 1990 share of the county land base in public conservation uses. We find that net...

POLICIES TO REDUCE FOREST FRAGMENTATION: COMBINING ECONOMETRIC MODELS WITH GIS-BASED LANDSCAPE SIMULATIONS

Palavras-chave: Labor and Human Capital; Land Economics/Use.

Ano: 2001

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20748

Lewis, David J.; Plantinga, Andrew J..

Forest fragmentation is a primary threat to terrestrial biodiversity. We combine a parcel-level econometric model of land-use transitions with spatially-explicit landscape simulations to predict the empirical distribution of fragmentation outcomes under given market conditions and policy scenarios. Our model explains transitions between forest, agricultural, and urban uses, allowing us to model land use change in both rural and urban areas. A Monte Carlo simulation approach links econometrically-derived transition probabilities to GIS maps for the prediction of the spatial properties of habitat change.

THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF RESERVING FEDERAL LAND FOR BIODIVERSITY PROTECTION IN THE U.S. PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19910

Hunt, Gary L.; Kerkvliet, Joe; Plantinga, Andrew J..

We empirically investigate the effects of the Northwest Forest Plan on two widely-used economic indicators: employment growth and net migration. We find weak evidence that that setting aside 10 million acres of productive forest land for biodiversity protection had a large, but short-lived effect on employment growth.

Land-Use Change and Carbon Sinks: Econometric Estimation of the Carbon Sequestration Supply Function

Palavras-chave: Labor and Human Capital; Land Economics/Use.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20288

Lubowski, Ruben N.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Stavins, Robert N..

When and if the United States chooses to implement a greenhouse gas reduction program, it will be necessary to decide whether carbon sequestration policies - such as those that promote forestation and discourage deforestation - should be part of the domestic portfolio of compliance activities. We investigate the cost of forest-based carbon sequestration. In contrast with previous approaches, we econometrically examine micro-data on revealed landowner preferences, modeling six major private land uses in a comprehensive analysis of the contiguous United States. The econometric estimates are used to simulate landowner responses to sequestration policies. Key commodity prices are treated as endogenous and a carbon sink model is used to predict changes in...

Determinants of Land-Use Change In the United States 1982-1997

Palavras-chave: Abatement; Carbon; Climate change; Costs; Forestry; Greenhouse gases; Land use; Land-use change; Sequestration; Land Economics/Use; Q540; Q230; Q240; Q150.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10561

Lubowski, Ruben N.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Stavins, Robert N..

Changes in the use of land in the United States produce significant economic and environmental effects with important implications for a wide variety of policy issues, including protection of wildlife habitat, management of urban growth, and mitigation of global climate change. In contrast to previous descriptive and qualitative analyses of the trends in national land use, this paper uses an econometric approach to isolate the importance of historical changes in land-use profits and key government policies in determining national land-use changes from 1982 to 1997. The policies we examine are the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and total government payments to crop producers. We estimate a national-level discrete choice model of changes among the major...

Palavras-chave: Land use; Econometric model; Counterfactual simulation; Conservation Reserve Program (CRP); Land Economics/Use; C53; Q1; Q24; R14; R15.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10714

URBAN SPRAWL AND OBESITY

Bernell, Stephanie L.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Wu, JunJie.

In the U.S., urban sprawl and the rise in obesity rates have been two powerful trends during the latter half of the 20th century. Previous empirical work has found that obesity rates are influenced by labor market outcomes that are fundamentally shaped by the spatial pattern of developed land. We examine these potential linkages in an urban spatial model augmented to include time allocation and weight. Residents maximize utility defined over housing, weight, and food subject to a fixed time budget allocated to commuting, calorie expenditure, and work. We examine how weight is affected by commuting distance, food prices, and the rate of calorie expenditure; how a reduction in transportation costs affects weight throughout the city; and how initial...

EFFICIENT POLICIES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF INCENTIVES FOR LAND CONVERSION AND RETENTION

Palavras-chave: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22004

Plantinga, Andrew J.; Ahn, Soeun.

This study investigates the costs of subsidies for land retention and conversion, in addition to a policy that combines the incentives. A Markov model of forest and agricultural land use is estimated for the U.S. South Central region and used to simulate retention and conversion policies. Results suggest a conversion policy is less costly for increasing forest area, and a retention policy is less costly for increasing agricultural land area. The costs of separate subsidies can be up to 300% higher than the costs of combined incentives. However, when administrative costs are taken into account, conversion policies are likely to be less costly.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2002

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31086

THE DYNAMIC BEHAVIOR OF EFFICIENT TIMBER PRICES

McGough, Bruce; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Provencher, Bill.

The problem of when to optimally harvest trees when timber prices evolve according to an exogenous stochastic process has been studied extensively in recent decades. However, little attention has been given to the appropriate form of the stochastic process for timber prices, despite the fact that the choice of a process has important effects on optimal harvesting decisions. We develop a simple theoretical model of a timber market and show that there exists a rational expectations equilibrium in which prices evolve according to a stationary ARMA(1,1) process. Simulations are used to analyze a model with a more general representation of timber stock dynamics and to demonstrate that the unconditional distribution for rational timber prices is asymmetric....

Targeting Incentives to Reduce Habitat Fragmentation

Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2002

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12607

Lewis, David J.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Wu, JunJie.

This paper develops a theoretical model to analyze the spatial targeting of incentives for the restoration of forested landscapes when wildlife habitat can be enhanced by reducing fragmentation. The key theoretical result is that the marginal net benefits of increasing forest are convex, indicating that corner solutions – converting either none or all of the agricultural land in a section to forest – may be optimal. Corner solutions are directly linked to the spatial process determining habitat benefits and the regulator’s incomplete information regarding landowner opportunity costs. We present findings from a large-scale empirical landscape simulation that supports our key theoretical results.

The Efficiency of Voluntary Incentive Policies for Preventing Biodiversity Loss

Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92217

Lewis, David J.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Nelson, Erik; Polasky, Stephen.

In this paper we analyze the efficiency of voluntary incentive-based land-use policies for biodiversity conservation. Two factors combine to make it difficult to achieve an efficient result. First, the spatial pattern of habitat across multiple landowners is important for determining biodiversity conservation results. Second, the willingness of private landowners to accept a payment in exchange for enrolling in a conservation program is private information. Therefore, a conservation agency cannot easily control the spatial pattern of voluntary enrollment in conservation programs. We begin by showing how the distribution of a landowner’s willingness to accept a conservation payment can be derived from a parcel-scale land-use change model. Next we combine...

The Effects of Potential Land Development on Agricultural Land Prices

Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92220

Plantinga, Andrew J.; Lubowski, Ruben N.; Stavins, Robert N..

We conduct a national-scale study of the determinants of agricultural land values to better understand how current farmland prices are influenced by the potential for future land development. The theoretical basis for the empirical analysis is a spatial city model with stochastic returns to future land development. From the theoretical model, we derive an expression for the current price of agricultural land in terms of annual returns to agricultural production, the price of recently developed land parcels, and expressions involving model parameters that are represented in the empirical model by nonlinear functions of observed variables and parameters to be estimated. We estimate the model of agricultural land values with a cross-section on approximately...

Contracting for Impure Public Goods: Carbon Offsets and Additionality

Palavras-chave: Land Economics/Use.

Ano: 2002

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10852

Mason, Charles F.; Plantinga, Andrew J..

Governments contracting with private agents for the provision of an impure public good must contend with agents who would potentially supply the good absent any payments. This additionality problem is centrally important in the use of carbon offsets as part of climate change mitigation. Analyzing optimal contracts for forest carbon sequestration, an important offset category, we conduct a national-scale simulation using results from an econometric model of land-use change. The results indicate that for an increase in forest area of 50 million acres, annual government expenditures with optimal contracts are about $4 billion lower compared than under a uniform subsidy.

The Value of Terroir: Hedonic Estimation of Vineyard Sale Prices

Palavras-chave: Carbon Sequestration; Incentive Contracting; Offsets; Additionality; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q2; D8; L15.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101290

Cross, Robin M.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Stavins, Robert N..

We examine the value of terroir, which refers to the special characteristics of a place that impart unique qualities to the wine produced. We do this by conducting a hedonic analysis of vineyard sales in the Willamette Valley of Oregon to ascertain whether site attributes, such as slope, aspect, elevation, and soil types, or designated appellations are more important determinants of price. We find that prices are strongly determined by sub-AVA appellation designations, but not by specific site attributes. These results indicate that the concept of terroir matters economically, although the reality of terroir – as proxied for by locational attributes – is not significant.