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Registros recuperados: 7
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Prediction of Loan Deficiency Payments AgEcon
Cooper, Joseph C.; Plato, Gerald E..
This paper develops a stochastic model for estimating potential loan deficiency payments to U.S. corn producers in a discrete-dynamic context. We minimize the potential for misspecification bias by using nonparametric and semi-nonparametric approaches as specification checks in the model. The model permits the forecast at planting time of the resulting empirical distribution of LDP payments for that crop year. Using this model, the paper examines the sensitivity of this distribution to changes in expected price levels.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Domestic support; Loan deficiency payments; Marketing loan benefits; Corn; Yield; Agricultural Finance.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9717
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New Traders in Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Markets Scrutinized AgEcon
Hoffman, Linwood A.; Aulerich, Nicole M.; Plato, Gerald E..
Tipo: Article Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122563
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VALUING COUNTER-CYCLICAL PAYMENTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCER RISK MANAGEMENT AND PROGRAM ADMINISTRATION AgEcon
Plato, Gerald E.; Skully, David W.; Johnsons, D. Demcey.
USDA’s current method for estimating expected counter-cyclical payment rates produces unintentionally biased estimates because it does not consider the variability of marketing year prices. Estimates with positive bias increase the risk of overpayment to producers who accept advance payments. According to statute, producers must reimburse the Government for any overpayments, which can lead to cash-flow problems. A model developed for this analysis improved upon the USDA method of estimating counter-cyclical payment rates by accounting for the variability in market price forecast errors. This enhanced method produced unbiased estimates. Forecasters and producers can also use the model to calculate the probabilities of repayment. Producers can use call...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: 2002 Farm Act; Farm and commodity policy; Counter-cyclical payments; Risk management; Price uncertainty; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7184
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Measuring the Influence of Commodity Fund Trading on Soybean Price Discovery AgEcon
Plato, Gerald E.; Hoffman, Linwood A..
The increase in commodity fund trading in the agricultural commodity futures markets has raised concern that this trading is degrading the price discovery performance of these markets. We used the Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition procedure to estimate the price discovery performance of the soybean futures and spot markets. We found that the price discovery performance of the soybean futures market has improved along with the increased commodity fund trading. Our results indicated that a portion of the price discovered in the soybean futures market is passed to the spot market.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Price discovery; Commodity funds; Cointegration; Beveridge-Nelson decomposition.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37568
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Food Procurement by USDA's Farm Service Agency AgEcon
MacDonald, James M.; Handy, Charles R.; Plato, Gerald E..
USDA's Farm Service Agency (FSA) purchases food products for distribution through several of the Department's food assistance programs. This report describes FSA purchase methods and compares them to procurement strategies used by other Federal agencies and by private sector firms. It summarizes the principal policy issues faced by FSA in designing procurement strategies. And it uses a detailed statistical analysis to compare FSA prices to those realized in the private sector, and to identify the separate effects of agricultural commodity prices, seasonality, client location, purchase volumes, product characteristics, and competition on FSA product prices.
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Procurement; Auctions; Food assistance; Competition; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33925
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U.S. AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK UPDATE AND PROJECTIONS FOR THE WEST TO 1985 AND 2000 AgEcon
Quance, Leroy; Plato, Gerald E.; Smith, Allen.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Farm Management.
Ano: 1977 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32194
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THE SOYBEAN PROCESSING DECISION: EXERCISING A REAL OPTION ON PROCESSING MARGINS AgEcon
Plato, Gerald E..
The gross soybean processing margin (the gross return per bushel of soybeans processed) is the main decision variable that processors use in deciding when and if to make binding commitments to process soybeans on future dates. Understanding how processors choose processing margins for future processing dates from among those available on successive days may help to resolve the ongoing concern about the level of competitiveness in processing agricultural commodities. Processing returns are treated as being equivalent to the returns to a call option. This approach provides the opportunity to simulate processor choice of processing margin by evaluating the incentive of waiting for a larger processing margin versus the incentive of locking in the currently...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Real options; Option exercise; Processing decision; Processing margins; Futures prices; Soybean crush; Crop Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33567
Registros recuperados: 7
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