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ALTERNATIVE FORMS OF PRICE EXPECTATIONS IN SUPPLY ANALYSIS FOR U.S. CORN AND SOYBEAN ACREAGES AgEcon
Shideed, Kamil H.; White, Fred C..
The consequences of frequently used price expectation models are analyzed by comparing the responsiveness of U.S. corn and soybean acreages to six alternative formulations. The trade-off between bias and variance associated with these forecasts is investigated. The results of this study have important implications for future research on supply analysis.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 1989 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32351
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THE EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS ON ACREAGE RESPONSE OVER TIME: THE CASE OF CORN PRODUCTION IN IOWA AgEcon
McIntosh, Christopher S.; Shideed, Kamil H..
Corn acreage response in Iowa is examined using a time-varying parameter regression model. Separate estimates of the permanent portion of the parameter vector are obtained for each year over the period 1957-82. The estimated elasticities are grouped into “program” and “nonprogram” periods. The results indicate corn acreage response is more own-price elastics, and the elasticity is less variable under government acreage control programs than under a “nonprogram” regime. The assumption of parameter constancy is shown to be inappropriate for modeling Iowa corn acreage response over time.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 1989 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32462
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THE RESPONSIVENESS OF U.S. CORN AND SOYBEAN ACREAGES TO CONDITIONAL PRICE EXPECTATIONS: AN APPLICATION TO THE 1985 FARM BILL AgEcon
Shideed, Kamil H.; White, Fred C.; Brannen, Stephen J..
Naïve and adaptive schemes have been used as proxies for price expectations in previous studies of supply response. Those studies contain mixed formulas of futures, support, and lagged prices as alternative formulations for price expectations. This study uses a conditional expected price which combines both market and support prices into one price expectations measure. It defines the total effect of available information on supply response. The results indicate the potential usefulness of formulating expected prices as conditional price expectations in supply response analysis, with support prices being the conditional set. Under the provisions of the 1985 Farm Bill, significant reductions in corn and soybean acreages are in prospect for 1987-90.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 1987 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30211
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