SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

With countries from around the world set to meet in Copenhagen to try to hammer out a post-2012 climate change agreement, no one would disagree that a U.S. commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions is essential to such a global pact. However, despite U.S. president Obama’s recent announcement to push for a commitment to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 17% by 2020, in reality it is questionable whether U.S. Congress will agree to specific emissions cuts, although they are not ambitious at all from the perspectives of both the EU and developing countries, without the imposition of carbon tariffs on Chinese products to the U.S. market, even given China’s own recent announcement to voluntarily seek to reduce its carbon intensity by 40-45% over the same...

Climate Change Meets Trade in Promoting Green Growth: Potential Conflicts and Synergies

Palavras-chave: Post-2012 Climate Negotiations; Border Carbon Adjustments; Carbon Tariffs; Emissions Allowance Requirements; Cap-And-Trade Regime; Lieberman-Warner Bill; Waxman-Markey Bill; World Trade Organization; Kyoto Protocol; China; United States; Environmental Economics and Policy; F18; Q48; Q54; Q56; Q58.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60682

To date, border adjustment measures in the form of emissions allowance requirements (EAR) under the U.S. proposed cap-and-trade regime are the most concrete unilateral trade measure put forward to level the carbon playing field. If improperly implemented, such measures could disturb the world trade order and trigger a trade war. Because of these potentially far-reaching impacts, this paper focuses on this type of unilateral border adjustment, which requires importers to acquire and surrender emissions allowances corresponding to the embedded carbon contents in their goods from countries that have not taken climate actions comparable to that of home country. This discussion is mainly on the legality of unilateral EAR under the WTO rules. Given that the...

Inflationary Effect of Oil-Price Shocks in an Imperfect Market: A Partial Transmission Input-output Analysis

Palavras-chave: Post-2012 climate negotiations; Border carbon adjustments; Carbon tariffs; Emissions allowance requirements; Cap-and-trade regime; Lieberman-Warner bill; Waxman-Markey bill; World Trade Organization; Kyoto Protocol; Developing countries; United States; Environmental Economics and Policy; F18; Q48; Q54; Q56; Q58.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59475

Wu, Libo; Li, Jing; Zhang, ZhongXiang.

This paper aims to examine the impacts of oil-price shocks on China’s price levels. To that end, we develop a partial transmission input-output model that captures the uniqueness of the Chinese market. We hypothesize and simulate price control, market factors and technology substitution - the three main factors that restrict the functioning of a price pass-through mechanism during oil-price shocks. Using the models of both China and the U.S., we separate the impact of price control from those of other factors leading to China’s price stickiness under oil-price shocks. The results show a sharp contrast between China and the U.S., with price control in China significantly preventing oil-price shocks from spreading into its domestic inflation, especially in...

An Evaluation of Overseas Oil Investment Projects under Uncertainty Using a Real Options Based Simulation Model

Palavras-chave: Oil-price Shocks; Price Transmission; Price Control; Input-output Analysis; Inflation; Industrial Structure; China; The United States; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q43; Q41; Q48; O13; O53; P22; E31.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102507

Liberalizing Climate-Friendly Goods and Technologies in the WTO: Product Coverage, Modalities, Challenges and the Way Forward

Zhu, Lei; Zhang, ZhongXiang; Fan, Ying.

This paper applies real options theory to establish an overseas oil investment evaluation model that is based on Monte Carlo simulation and is solved by the Least Squares Monte-Carlo method. To better reflect the reality of overseas oil investment, our model has incorporated not only the uncertainties of oil price and investment cost but also the uncertainties of exchange rate and investment environment. These unique features have enabled our model to be best equipped to evaluate the value of oil overseas investment projects of three oil field sizes (large, medium, small) and under different resource tax systems (royalty tax and production sharing contracts). In our empirical setting, we have selected China as an investor country and Indonesia as an...

Tipo: Working Paper

Palavras-chave: Overseas Oil Investment; Project Value; Real Options; Least Squares Monte-Carlo; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q41; Q43; Q48; G31; O13; O22; C63.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119106

The Doha Round Agenda (paragraph 31(3)) mandates to liberalize environmental goods and services. This mandate offers a good opportunity to put climate-friendly goods and services on a fast track to liberalization. Agreement on this paragraph should represent one immediate contribution that the WTO can make to fight against climate change. This paper presents the key issues surrounding liberalized trade in climate-friendly goods and technologies in WTO environmental goods negotiations. It begins with what products to liberalize and how. Clearly, WTO environmental goods negotiations to date show that WTO member countries are divided by this key issue. Focusing on the issue, the paper explores options available to liberalize trade in climate-friendly goods...

Environmental Security and its Implications for China’s Foreign Relations

Palavras-chave: Environmental Goods and Services; Low-Carbon Goods and Technologies; Doha Round; WTO; Environmental Economics and Policy; F18; F13; Q56; Q54; Q58; Q48.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94620

Mochizuki, Junko; Zhang, ZhongXiang.

China’s emerging standing in the world demands a major rethinking of its diplomatic strategies. Given its population size, geographical scale, economic power and military presence, China is poised to play a larger political role in the twenty-first century, and is thus perceived by the international community to have greater capacities, capabilities and responsibilities. At the same time, environmental stresses caused by China’s energy and resources demands have become increasingly evident in recent years, urging China to cultivate delicate diplomatic relations with its neighbors and strategic partners. Tensions have been seen in areas such as transboundary air pollution, cross-border water resources management and resources exploitation, and more recently...

A Trend Deduction Model of Fluctuating Oil Prices

Palavras-chave: Acid Rain; Climate Change; Energy; Environmental Security; Transboundary Air Pollution; Water Resource Management; Asia; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q25; Q34; Q48; Q42; Q53; Q54; Q56; Q58; O13; P28.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102508

Xu, Haiyan; Zhang, ZhongXiang.

Crude oil prices have been fluctuating over time and by a large range. It is the disorganization of oil price series that makes it difficult to deduce the changing trends of oil prices in the middle- and long-terms and predict their price levels in the short-term. Following a price-state classification and state transition analysis of changing oil prices from January 2004 to April 2010, this paper first verifies that the observed crude oil price series during the soaring period follow a Markov Chain. Next, the paper deduces the changing trends of oil prices by the limit probability of a Markov Chain. We then undertake a probability distribution analysis and find that the oil price series have a log-normality distribution. On this basis, we integrate the...

Trade in Environmental Goods, with Focus on Climate-Friendly Goods and Technologies

Palavras-chave: Oil Price; Log-normality Distribution; Limit Probability of a Markov Chain; Trend Deduction Model; OPEC; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q41; Q47; C12; C49; F01; O13.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101300

Impacts of Border Carbon Adjustments on China’s Sectoral Emissions: Simulations with a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model

Paragraph 31(iii) of the Doha Ministerial Declaration mandates to the liberalization of environmental goods and services. This mandate offers a good opportunity to put climate-friendly goods and services on a fast track to liberalization. Agreement on this paragraph should represent one immediate contribution that the WTO can make to fight against climate change. This paper presents the key issues surrounding the liberalization of trade in climate-friendly goods and technologies in WTO environmental goods negotiations. It begins with discussing what products to liberalize and how. Given that WTO Members are divided by this key issue, the paper explores options to move current negotiations on the liberalization of trade in environmental goods and...

Tipo: Working Paper

Palavras-chave: Environmental Goods and Services; Low-Carbon Goods and Technologies; Market Access; Doha Round; WTO; Renewable Energy Technologies; Environmental Economics and Policy; F18; F13; P28; Q42; Q48; Q56; Q54; Q58; Q48.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119099

Copenhagen and Beyond: Reflections on China’s Stance and Responses

Bao, Qin; Tang, Ling; Zhang, ZhongXiang; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang.

Carbon-based border tax adjustments (BTAs) have recently been proposed by some OECD countries to level the carbon playing field and target major emerging economies. This paper applies a multi-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the impacts of the BTAs implemented by US and EU on China’s sectoral carbon emissions. The results indicate that BTAs will cut down export prices and transmit the effects to the whole economy, reducing sectoral output-demands from both supply side and demand side. On the supply side, sectors might substitute away from exporting toward domestic market, increasing sectoral supply; while on the demand side, the domestic income may be strikingly cut down due to the decrease in export price, decreasing...

Tipo: Working Paper

Palavras-chave: Border Carbon Tax Adjustments; Computable General Equilibrium Model; Carbon Emissions; Environmental Economics and Policy; D58; F18; Q43; Q48; Q52; Q54; Q56; Q58.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120044

China had been singled out by Western politicians and media for dragging its feet on international climate negotiations at Copenhagen, the accusations previously always targeted on the U.S. To put such a criticism into perspective, this paper provides some reflections on China’s stance and reactions at Copenhagen. While China’s reactions are generally well rooted because of realities at home, some reactions could have been handled more effectively for a better image of China. The paper also addresses the reliability of China’s statistics on energy and GDP, the issue crucial to the reliability of China’s carbon intensity commitments. The paper discusses flaws in current international climate negotiations and closes with my suggestion that international...

Liberalizing Climate-Friendly Goods and Technologies in the WTO: Product Coverage, Modalities, Challenges and the Way Forward

Palavras-chave: Copenhagen Climate Negotiations; Emissions Reductions; Carbon Intensity Target; Binding Emissions Caps; Statistics on Energy and GDP; Coal and Energy Consumption; China; USA; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q41; Q43; Q48; Q52; Q54; Q58; O53.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92836

Multilateral Trade Measures in a Post-2012 Climate Change Regime?: What Can Be Taken from the Montreal Protocol and the WTO?

Palavras-chave: Environmental Goods and Services; Low-Carbon Goods and Technologies; Doha Round; WTO; Environmental Economics and Policy; F18; F13; Q56; Q54; Q58; Q48.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94735

The climate-trade nexus gains increasing attention as governments are taking great efforts to forge a post-2012 climate change regime to succeed the Kyoto Protocol. This raises the issues of the scope of trade-related measures and of when and how they could be used. This paper discusses how far trade-related measures should be incorporated in that context. Drawing on an analogy to the Montreal Protocol and comparing developing country’s climate mitigation and adaptation needs with the funding available, the paper argues that such measures should initially be applied only among Annex I or II countries. To discipline the use of unilateral trade measures at the international level, the paper emphasizes a need to define comparable climate efforts. Moreover,...

China in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy

Palavras-chave: Post-2012 climate negotiations; Trade-related measures; Lieberman-Warner bill; WTO; Montreal Protocol; Developing countries; United States; Environmental Economics and Policy; F18; Q48; Q54; Q56; Q58.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54359

China, from its own perspective cannot afford to, and from an international perspective, is not allowed to continue on the conventional path of encouraging economic growth at the expense of the environment. The country needs to transform its economy to effectively address concern about a range of environmental problems from burning fossil fuels and steeply rising oil import and international pressure to exhibit greater ambition in fighting global climate change. This paper first discusses China’s own efforts towards energy saving and pollutants cutting, the widespread use of renewable energy and participation in clean development mechanism, and puts carbon reductions of China’s unilateral actions into perspective. Given that transition to a low carbon...

Effective Environmental Protection in the Context of Government Decentralization

Palavras-chave: Energy Saving; Renewable Energy; Clean Development Mechanism; Nuclear Power; Power Generation; Oil and Gas; Post-Copenhagen Climate Negotiations; China; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q42; Q48; Q52; Q54; Q58.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91009

China has shifted control over resources and decision making to local governments and enterprises as the result of the economic reforms over the past three decades. This devolution of decision-making to local levels and enterprises has placed environmental stewardship in the hands of local officials and polluting enterprises who are more concerned with economic growth and profits than the environment. Therefore, effective environmental protection needs their full cooperation. Against this background, this paper discusses a variety of tactics that China’s central government has been using to incentivize local governments, and a number of market-based instruments, supporting economic policies, environmental performance ratings and disclosure and cooperation...

In What Format and under What Timeframe Would China Take on Climate Commitments? A Roadmap to 2050

Palavras-chave: Effective Environmental Protection; Incentive Structure; Economic Instruments; Industrial Policy; Financial Institutions; Government Decentralization; China; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q53; Q56; Q58; Q43; Q48; H23; H75; R51.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101295

In what format and under what timeframe China would take on climate commitments is of significant relevance to China because it is facing great pressure both inside and outside international climate negotiations to exhibit greater ambition and is being confronted with the threats of trade measures. It is of significant global relevance as well because when China’s emissions peak is crucial to determine when global emissions would peak and because what China is going to do in what format has significant implications for the level and ambition of commitments from other countries. In response to these concerns and to put China in a positive position, this paper maps out the roadmap for China’s specific climate commitments towards 2050. Taking many factors...

Assessing China’s Energy Conservation and Carbon Intensity: How Will the Future Differ from the Past?

Palavras-chave: Carbon Intensity Target; Binding Emissions Caps; Post-Copenhagen Climate Negotiations; Energy Saving; Renewable Energy; Clean Development Mechanism; China; USA; India; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q42; Q48; Q52; Q54; Q58.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94843

As an important step towards building a “harmonious society” through “scientific development”, China has incorporated for the first time in its five-year economic plan an energy input indicator as a constraint. While it achieved a quadrupling of its GDP while cutting its energy intensity by about three quarters between 1980 and 2000, China has had limited success in achieving its own 20% energy-saving goal set for 2010 to date. Despite this great challenge at home, just prior to the Copenhagen climate summit, China pledged to cut its carbon intensity by 40-45% by 2020 relative its 2005 levels to help to reach an international climate change agreement at Copenhagen or beyond. This raises the issue of whether such a pledge is ambitious or just represents...

Who Should Bear the Cost of China’s Carbon Emissions Embodied in Goods for Exports?

Palavras-chave: Energy Saving; Renewable Energy; Carbon Intensity; Post-Copenhagen Climate Negotiations; Climate Commitments; China; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q42; Q43; Q48; Q52; Q53; Q54; Q58.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92837

Breaking the Impasse in International Climate Negotiations: A New Direction for Currently Flawed Negotiations and a Roadmap for China to 2050

China’s capital-intensive, export-oriented, spectacular economic growth since launching its open-door policy and economic reforms in late 1978 not only has created jobs and has lifted millions of the Chinese people out of poverty, but also has given rise to unprecedented environmental pollution and CO2 emissions. While estimates of the embedded CO2 emissions in China’s trade differ, both single country studies for China and global studies show a hefty chunk of China’s CO2 emissions embedded in trade. This portion of CO2 emissions had helped to turn China into the world’s largest carbon emitter, and is further widening its gap with the second largest emitter. This raises the issue of who should be responsible for this portion of emissions and bearing the...

Tipo: Working Paper

Palavras-chave: Carbon Emissions Embodied In Trade; Consumption-Based Accounting; Production-Based Accounting; Processing Trade; Carbon Tariffs; Energy Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; F18; P28; Q42; Q43; Q48; Q53; Q54; Q56; Q58.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118958

China’s unilateral pledge to cut its carbon intensity by 40-45 percent by 2020 relative to its 2005 levels raises both the stringency issue, and given that China’s pledge is in the form of carbon intensity, reliability issues concerning China’s statistics on energy and GDP. Moreover, as long as China’s commitments differ in form from those of other major greenhouse gas emitters, China is constantly confronted with both criticism on its carbon intensity commitment being less stringent and the threats of trade measures. In response to these concerns and to put China in a positive position, this paper will map out a realistic roadmap for China’s specific climate commitments towards 2050, with its main distinguishing features including China taking on absolute...