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| Witzke, Heinz Peter; Britz, Wolfgang. |
| In the context of a long run agricultural outlook on behalf of the European Environmental Agency a new methodology has been developed to systematically integrate external forecasts into a quite detailed agricultural sector model. External forecasts usually provide estimates for the exogenous variables in modelling work and frequently they are also used for comparisons and potential reassessment of empirical specifications. The innovative characteristic of this study is that expert forecasts have been used to specify parameter changes expressing structural change affecting behavioural functions. The outlook was therefore set up as a simultaneous estimation and forecasting effort which permitted to integrate various, usually contradictory expert forecasts... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural outlook; Forecasting; Modelling; Expert information; Agricultural and Food Policy; C15; C53; Q11; Q19; Q21. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24666 |
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| Isoard, Stephane; Witzke, Heinz Peter. |
| This paper reports the results of a European agricultural outlook exercise that updates former studies in three ways, i.e. in terms of timeframes, spatial coverage and policy context. This updated European agricultural outlook constitutes a key component of the forthcoming 'State of the Environment and Outlook report' of the European Environment Agency (EEA). Both activity variables and environmental indicators are reported for a baseline projection and alternative scenarios. The main findings include the following: European harvested land is expected to continue to be primarily used to fodder activities and production of cereals (80% of total area); yields increase is projected to be the main source of production growth in Europe over the next 20... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agricultural outlook; European agricultural policy; Environment; Agribusiness; C61; Q18; Q21. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24500 |
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