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CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCES ON THE RISK OF AVIAN INFLUENZA OUTBREAKS AND ASSOCIATED ECONOMIC LOSS AgEcon
Mu, Jianhong H.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Wu, Ximing; Gan, Li.
This paper examines the effect that climate has on Avian Influenza outbreak probability. The statistical analysis shows across a broad region the probability of an outbreak declines by 0.22% when the temperature rises 1 Celsius degree and increases by 0.34% when precipitation increases by 1millimeter. These results indicate that the realized climate change of the last 20 years not only has been a factor behind recent HPAI outbreaks, but that climate change is likely to play an even greater role in the future. The statistical results indicate that overall, the risk of an AI outbreak has been increased by 51% under past climate change and 3-4% under future climate change. An economic evaluation shows the increased probability of outbreaks has caused...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Climate change; Avian Influenza outbreaks; GDP loss; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103637
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