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Revealing the Organization of Complex Adaptive Systems through Multivariate Time Series Modeling Ecology and Society
Angeler, David G; Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment; david.angeler@slu.se; Drakare, Stina; Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment ; stina.drakare@slu.se; Johnson, Richard K; Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment ; richard.johnson@slu.se.
Revealing the adaptive responses of ecological, social, and economic systems to a transforming biosphere is crucial for understanding system resilience and preventing collapse. However, testing the theory that underpins complex adaptive system organization (e.g., panarchy theory) is challenging. We used multivariate time series modeling to identify scale-specific system organization and, by extension, apparent resilience mechanisms. We used a 20-year time series of invertebrates and phytoplankton from 26 Swedish lakes to test the proposition that a few key-structuring environmental variables at specific scales create discontinuities in community dynamics. Cross-scale structure was manifested in two independent species groups within both communities across...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Complex adaptive systems dynamics; Complex adaptive systems organization; Cross-scale structure; Discontinuities; Environmental variables; Invertebrates; Lakes; Panarchy; Phytoplankton; Resilience; Time series modeling.
Ano: 2011
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