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Spatial Modeling of Risk in Natural Resource Management Ecology and Society
Jones, Peter; CIAT (International Center for Tropical Agriculture); p.jones@cgiar.org; Thornton, Philip K; International Livestock Research Institute; P.Thornton@cgiar.org.
Making decisions in natural resource management involves an understanding of the risk and uncertainty of the outcomes, such as crop failure or cattle starvation, and of the normal spread of the expected production. Hedging against poor outcomes often means lack of investment and slow adoption of new methods. At the household level, production instability can have serious effects on income and food security. At the national level, it can have social and economic impacts that may affect all sectors of society. Crop models such as CERES-Maize are excellent tools for assessing weather-related production variability. WATBAL is a water balance model that can provide robust estimates of the potential growing days for a pasture. These models require large...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Crop modeling; Dryland agriculture; Global change; Global Circulation Model; Maize; Markov models; MarkSim; Natural resource management; Risk; Southern Africa; Spatial modeling; Weather simulation.
Ano: 2002
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Simulating maize yield in sub‑tropical conditions of southern Brazil using Glam model PAB
Bergamaschi,Homero; Costa,Simone Marilene Sievert da; Wheeler,Timothy Robert; Challinor,Andrew Juan.
The objective of this work was to evaluate the feasibility of simulating maize yield in a sub‑tropical region of southern Brazil using the general large area model (Glam). A 16‑year time series of daily weather data were used. The model was adjusted and tested as an alternative for simulating maize yield at small and large spatial scales. Simulated and observed grain yields were highly correlated (r above 0.8; p<0.01) at large scales (greater than 100,000 km²), with variable and mostly lower correlations (r from 0.65 to 0.87; p<0.1) at small spatial scales (lower than 10,000 km²). Large area models can contribute to monitoring or forecasting regional patterns of variability in maize production in the region, providing a basis for agricultural...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Zea mays; Crop modeling; Crop parameters; Crop‑weather relationships.
Ano: 2013 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-204X2013000200002
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Principles of crop modelling and simulation: II. the implications of the objective in model development Scientia Agricola
Dourado-Neto,D.; Teruel,D.A.; Reichardt,K.; Nielsen,D.R.; Frizzone,J. A.; Bacchi,O.O.S..
With the purpose of presenting to scientists the implications of the objective in model development and a basic vision of modeling, with its potential applications and limitations in agriculture, an integration of crop modeling professionals with agricultural professionals is suggested. Models mean modernization of the information, of the measurement process and of an efficient way to learn more about complex systems. They are one of the best mechanisms of transforming information in useful knowledge and of transferring this knowledge to others. One of the problems that impede a larger progress in modeling is the lack of communication between modelers and a frequent appearance of modelers without a global vision of reality.
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Crop modeling; Simulation.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-90161998000500009
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Principles of crop modelling and simulation: III. modeling of root growth and other belowground processes, limitations of the models, and the future of modeling in agriculture Scientia Agricola
DOURADO-NETO,D.; TERUEL,D. A.; REICHARDT,K.; NIELSEN,D.R.; FRIZZONE,J. A.; BACCHI,O.O.S..
The first models of temporal variation of root systems appeared over 20 years ago. The complex architectural geometry of root systems; the wide range in size and diameter and the rapid growth and decomposition of finest roots; the different physiological activity of roots of different ages; the complex microbial processes occurring at the root-soil interface; the symbiotic relationships in the rhizosphere; the variable soil environment (physical, chemical and biological) in which roots develop are the challenges of quantifying the root growth. The models are not simple mechanisms to archive information in order to produce forecasts. Modeling represents a better way of synthesizing knowledge about different components of a system, summarizing data, and...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Crop modeling; Simulation.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-90161998000500010
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Principles of crop modeling and simulation: I. uses of mathematical models in agricultural science Scientia Agricola
Dourado-Neto,D.; Teruel,D. A.; Reichardt,K.; Nielsen,D.R.; Frizzone,J. A.; Bacchi,O.O.S..
Modeling techniques applied to agriculture can be useful to define research priorities and understanding the basic interactions of the soil-plant-atmosphere system. Using a model to estimate the importance and the effect of certain parameters, a researcher can notice which factors can be most useful. The modeler should define his objectives before beginning his work and construct a model that fulfills the proposed objectives.
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Crop modeling; Simulation.
Ano: 1998 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-90161998000500008
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