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Characterizing Species at Risk II: Using Bayesian Belief Networks as Decision Support Tools to Determine Species Conservation Categories Under the Northwest Forest Plan Ecology and Society
Marcot, Bruce G; USDA Forest Service; bmarcot@fs.fed.us; Hohenlohe, Paul A; Oregon State University; hohenlop@science.oregonstate.edu; Morey, Steve; USDI Fish and Wildlife Service; steven_morey@fws.gov; Holmes, Russ; USDA Forest Service; russellholmes@fs.fed.us; Molina, Randy; USDA Forest Service; rmolina@fs.fed.us; Turley, Marianne C; USDI Bureau of Land Management; mturley@fs.fed.us; Huff, Mark H; USDI Fish and Wildlife Service; Mark_Huff@fws.gov; Laurence, John A; USDA Forest Service; jalaurence@fs.fed.us.
We developed a set of decision-aiding models as Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) that represented a complex set of evaluation guidelines used to determine the appropriate conservation of hundreds of potentially rare species on federally-administered lands in the Pacific Northwest United States. The models were used in a structured assessment and paneling procedure as part of an adaptive management process that evaluated new scientific information under the Northwest Forest Plan. The models were not prescriptive but helped resource managers and specialists to evaluate complicated and at times conflicting conservation guidelines and to reduce bias and uncertainty in evaluating the scientific data. We concluded that applying the BBN modeling framework to...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Bayesian belief networks; Decision models; Expert panels; Risk analysis; Northwest Forest Plan; Species conservation..
Ano: 2006
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AN EVALUATION OF SELECTED DECISION MODELS: A CASE OF CROP CHOICE IN NORTHERN THAILAND AgEcon
Vieth, Gary R.; Suppapanya, Pramote.
This research examines the predictability of a profit maximization model, an expected value-variance utility maximization (E-V) model, and two versions of the target-MOTAD model for modeling risky agricultural production decisions. Model solutions were translated into expected value and variance of farm income for analysis. Direct comparison and chi-square analysis of actual and predicted expected income distributions were used in the analyses. It was concluded that the utility maximization and cash-cost target-MOTAD models predicted distributions of farm income better than the variable-cost target-MOTAD and profit maximization models.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Decision models; Expected utility maximization; Farm income; Profit maximization; Target-MOTAD; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 1996 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15128
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La certificacion como estrategia para la recuperacion de la confianza del consumidor en la adquisicion de la carne de ternera AgEcon
Barrena Figueroa, Ramo; Sanchez Garcia, Mercedes; Gil, Jose Maria; Gracia, Azucena; Rivera, Luis M..
Resumen El objetivo del trabajo se centra en analizar el efecto de la presencia de etiqueta en un producto con el fin de minimizar el riesgo percibido o la incertidumbre asociada al producto. El análisis ha sido realizado tomando como ejemplo la carne fresca de ternera, producto que ha presentado en Europa, en general, y en España, en particular, importantes problemas de salubridad o seguridad alimentaria que han generado una importante pérdida de confianza por parte de los consumidores e, indirectamente, una disminución de su consumo, lo que ha supuesto, a su vez, serias implicaciones sobre la oferta. Teniendo en cuenta el objetivo planteado, se especifica un modelo para analizar la disposición del consumidor a aumentar el consumo de carne de ternera si...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Consumer behaviour; Decision models; Label; Beef; Food safety; Consumer/Household Economics; M31; R11; Q13.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28748
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THE INFLUENCE OF THE LEGAL BACKGROUND ON THE TRANSACTION COSTS ON THE LAND MARKET IN HUNGARY AgEcon
Orlovits, Zsolt.
This essay outlines an alternative “law and economics” interpretation of the concept of the land market. According to neo-institutional researchers, institutions provide the framework and the rules in a society, including legal regulations. This study is based on the legal background in Hungary, and it analyses the current agricultural legal norms of land property. The method used for this research was observing the legal norms in practice and adopting the methods of the economic analysis of law, including game (negotiation) theory and regulatory impact analysis. Describing the different legal institutions, such as easement, lease, agricultural subsidies, that has pecuniary value, the present article describes the transaction costs of selling and...
Tipo: Book Palavras-chave: Land low; Property; Game theories; Decision models; Agricultural and Food Policy; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43401
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Effects of the Boll Weevil Eradication Program on Alabama Cotton Farms AgEcon
Duffy, Patricia A.; Cain, Danny L.; Young, George J.; Wetzstein, Michael E..
Five-year, 0-1 mixed integer programming models of two representative Alabama farms were developed for analyzing the effects of the Boll Weevil Eradication (BWE) program on farm program participation and crop-mix decisions by Alabama cotton farmers. In previous research the BWE program was found to increase yields by approximately 100 pounds per acre in Georgia and southern Alabama where the program has been in effect for several years. In this study, these increased yields are shown to be an important factor contributing to the expanded cotton acreage in southern Alabama. For northern Alabama, gains to producers are also possible, but not to the extent realized in the southern part of the state.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Boll Weevil Eradication program; Cotton farms; Decision models; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 1994 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/62340
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VALUING RISK TRADEOFFS AND VOLUNTARY INSECTICIDE REDUCTION AgEcon
Lohr, Luanne; Park, Timothy A.; Higley, Leon.
Farmer's willingness to voluntarily reduce insecticide use is not considered when regulatory approaches to environmental protection are proposed. Regulations that require behavior that would voluntarily be undertaken are excessive and economically inefficient. Using survey data from a contingent valuation scenario, we demonstrate the willingness of crop producers in four Midwestern states in the U.S. to trade yield losses for environmental risk reduction by eliminating an insecticide application. The mean acceptable yield loss for a sample of 1,138 producers in Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska and Ohio is $8.25 per acre. Acceptable yield loss increases with the rated importance of environmental goods (fish, birds, mammals, native plants and endangered species),...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Decision models; Agriculture; Environmental protection; Risk; Contingent valuation; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 1996 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16671
Registros recuperados: 6
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