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Non-Linear Dynamics and Predictable Forecast Errors: An Application to the OECD Forecasts for Germany AgEcon
Antzoulatos, Angelos A.; Wilfling, Bernd.
Recent theoretical advances in consumption theory suggest that there may exist predictable consumption surges which, if not taken sufficiently into account in forecasting, may lead to predictable forecast errors. We use this insight to identify economic variables that might help improve the OECD's forecasts for Germany's consumption and GDP growth.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Consumption; GDP; Macroeconomic forecasts; Non-linear dynamics.; Consumer/Household Economics; C53; E21; E37.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26169
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Comparing numerical methods for solving the competitive storage model AgEcon
Gouel, Christophe.
This paper compares numerical methods for solving the competitive storage model. Since storage implies an inequality constraint, the solution methods must be considered carefully. The model is solved using value function iteration, and several projection approaches, including parameterised expectations and decision rules approximation. Using a penalty function approach to smooth the inequality constraint, perturbation methods are also applied. Parameterised expectations proves the most accurate method, while perturbation techniques are shown inadequate for solving this highly nonlinear model. The endogenous grid method allows rapid solution if supply is assumed to be inelastic.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Binding constraint; Nonlinear rational expectations models; Numerical methods; Agricultural and Food Policy; C63; D84; E37.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115430
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“Google it!” Forecasting the US Unemployment Rate with a Google Job Search index AgEcon
D’Amuri, Francesco; Marcucci, Juri.
We suggest the use of an Internet job-search indicator (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our preferred leading indicator (GI), the more standard initial claims or combinations of both. We find that models augmented with the GI outperform the traditional ones in predicting the monthly unemployment rate, even in most state-level forecasts and in comparison with the Survey of Professional Forecasters.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Google Econometrics; Forecast Comparison; Keyword search; US Unemployment; Time Series Models; Labor and Human Capital; C22; C53; E27; E37; J60; J64.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60680
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Location Preference for Risk-Averse Dutch Dairy Farmers Immigrating to the United States AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Herbst, Brian K.; Duncan, Anthony; den Besten, Mark; van Hoven, Peter.
Increased environmental regulations and a milk quota that restricts growth have increased the interest in immigration to the United States by Dutch dairy farmers. A risk-based economic analysis of 23 representative U.S. dairy farms versus a representative Dutch farm shows that risk-averse Dutch dairy farmers would prefer to liquidate their dairy farms and invest in a large dairy in Idaho or north Texas. The risk ranking suggested that continuing to farm in the Netherlands rather than immigrating to the United States is preferred over only two of the 23 U.S. representative farms analyzed.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Dairy relocation; Production economics; Ranking risky alternatives; Risk analysis; F21; F22; Q12; Q14; E37; D81.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37061
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THE INFORMATIONAL ROLE OF COMMODITY PRICES IN FORMULATING MONETARY POLICY: A REEXAMINATION AgEcon
Awokuse, Titus O.; Yang, Jian.
This paper reexamines the issue of whether commodity prices provide useful information for formulating monetary policy through the application of recent development in time series methodology developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). We found that commodity prices signals the future direction of the economy.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Commodity prices; Monetary policy; Causality; Financial Economics; E31; E37.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15834
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Testing for linear and threshold cointegration under the spatial equilibrium condition AgEcon
Araujo-Enciso, Sergio Rene.
Economic theory states that the spatial equilibrium condition is a region where prices can be or not cointegrated. It is when prices are within such a region when they are no cointegrated, when prices are in its boundaries they are not only cointegrated but also fulfilling the Law of One Price (LOP). Nonetheless the econometric techniques assume a mean reverting process in order to test for cointegration, either linear or non linear. This research shows that in the absence of such mean reverting process by using prices in pure equilibrium, cointegration (linear and non linear) is often rejected. Such findings go in line with the Band Threshold Autoregressive Model where the neutral band is a region of no cointegration. Furthermore it can be concluded that...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Spatial Equilibrium Condition; Testing Cointegration; Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; C15; E37.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122545
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DIETARY EVOLUTION OVER TIME IN EUROPE, BETWEEN CYCLOPS AND PHAECIANS . AN OUTLOOK ON THE ROLE OF SUPPLY-SIDE FACTORS IN DRIVING CHANGES IN THE FOOD PATTERNS AgEcon
Finardi, Corrado; Arfini, Filippo; Turrini, Aida.
The present study intends to shed light, both from a descriptive and investigative point of view on the dietary evolution taking place in Europe during last 45 years, using secondary data from FAO FBS, which can cover the entire time span considered and allow for several extrapolation and timeseries analysis, differently than single survey data.. After a clustering of selected european national diets, using specific metrics with respect both to internal and external variety (as measured by appropriate indicators), we intended to check the actual distance that average, national diets have in front of the so called Food Pyramid, which consists in a balance of several food items in adequate proportions and in fact glorifies the healthy virtues of the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Diets; Evolution; Clustering; Food pyramid; Europe; Trade; GI; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; E37; Q18.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116443
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What Can we Learn from our Mistakes? Evaluating the Benefits of Correcting Inefficiencies in USDA Cotton Forecasts. AgEcon
Isengildina-Massa, Olga; Tysinger, David; Gerard, Patrick; MacDonald, Stephen.
This study investigated the magnitude of forecast improvements resulting from correction of inefficiencies in USDA cotton forecasts over 1999/00 to 2008/09 marketing years. The aspects of forecast performance included in this study were 1) bias and trends in bias, 2) correlation between forecast error and forecast level, 3) autocorrelation in forecast errors, 4) correlation in forecast revisions. Overall the results of this study demonstrated that some corrections of forecast inefficiencies, such as correction of correlation of error with forecast levels and correlation of error with previous year’s error resulted in consistent improvement of USDA cotton forecasts, while correction for correlation in forecast revisions did not benefit the forecasts....
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Commodity; Forecast evaluation; Fixed-event forecasts; Government forecasting; Forecast improvement; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis; E37; E3; Q13.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98811
Registros recuperados: 8
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