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Discounting the Distant Future: How Much Do Uncertain Rates Increase Valuations? AgEcon
Newell, Richard G.; Pizer, William A..
Costs and benefits in the distant future-such as those associated with global warming, long-lived infrastructure, hazardous and radioactive waste, and biodiversity-often have little value today when measured with conventional discount rates. We demonstrate that when the future path of this conventional rate is uncertain and persistent (i.e., highly correlated over time), the distant future should be discounted at lower rates than suggested by the current rate. We then use two centuries of data on U.S. interest rates to quantify this effect. Using both random walk and mean-reverting models, we compute the certainty-equivalent rate that is, the single discount rate that summarizes the effect of uncertainty and measures the appropriate forward rate of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Discounting; Uncertainty; Interest rate forecasting; Climate policy; Intergenerational equity; Risk and Uncertainty; D90; E47; C53; H43; Q28.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10743
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Currency Substitution and the Demand for Money in Five European Union Countries AgEcon
Yildirim, Julide.
The high degree of economic integration has led to an increased degree of currency substitution in the EU countries, which could bring instability in national money demand functions while an EU-wide money demand function could be more stable. Currency substitution usually takes the form of cross border deposits (CBD), which are not included in the traditional monetary aggregates. Thus, extended monetary aggregates that include the relevant CBDs are defined in this study. In order to investigate the implications of currency substitution for the stability of the demand functions, the traditional and extended monetary aggregates for five EU countries are defined in addition to EU-wide monetary aggregates. The estimated EU-wide demand for extended money...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Currency substitution; Cross border deposits; Extended monetary aggregates; Demand for money; Vector autoregression; Financial Economics; E41; F33; E52; E47.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43999
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