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Registros recuperados: 29
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From Scientific Speculation to Effective Adaptive Management: A case study of the role of social marketing in promoting novel restoration strategies for degraded dry lands Ecology and Society
Westley, Frances; Social Innovation Generation, University of Waterloo ; fwestley@watarts.uwaterloo.ca; Holmgren, Milena; Forest Ecology and Forest Management, Department of Environmental Sciences; Milena.Holmgren@wur.nl; Scheffer, Marten; Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Department of Environment; Marten.Scheffer@wur.nl.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Climate fluctuations; Dryland restoration; Ecosystem restoration; ENSO; Herbivory control; Matorral; Mediterranean shrub land; Reforestation; Social entrepreneur; Social marketing; Stakeholder..
Ano: 2010
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Ups and Downs in Pollinator Populations: When is there a Decline? Ecology and Society
Roubik, David Ward; Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute; roubikd@tivoli.si.edu.
Plant-pollinator systems inherently possess wide variation that limits the applicability of surveys on population dynamics or diversity. Stable habitats are scarcely studied, whereas dynamics in unprotected habitats are less predictable or more compromised by exotic organisms (Apis, in the case of bee surveys). An extensively replicated, long-term study of orchid-bees (Euglossini) was made in protected tropical moist forest in Panama. Over 47,000 bees were recorded in 124 monthly censuses employing 1952 counts. No aggregate trend in abundance occurred (from 1979 to 2000), although four individual species declined, nine increased, 23 showed no change, and species richness was stable. No rare or parasitic species showed decreasing trends, while the most...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: ENSO; Euglossini; Abundance variability; Bees; Census techniques; Diversity; Pollinators; Trends; Tropical- temperate comparisons.
Ano: 2001
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Late quaternary paleoceanography of the French Guiana continental shelf: Clay-mineral evidence ArchiMer
Pujos, M; Latouche, C; Maillet, N.
Marine muds deposited on the French Guiana coast mostly originate in the Amazon. Recent sediments are composed of (a) illite (33 %) and chlorite (13 %) of Andean mountain origin; and (b) kaolinite (28 %) and smectite (26 %), principally from the Amazonian lowlands but also from the Guiana Shield. In the coastal mud prism, high-resolution seismic profiles, together with sedimentological, micropaleontological and soil engineering studies, supplemented by C-14 dates, permitted a stratigraphic interpretation of eight cores. Three episodes have been determined on the basis of clay-mineral variations related to Amazonian lowland, Andean and Guiana shield sources. The older episodes 3 (3000-1700 y BP) and 2 (1700-1000 y BP) are predominantly characterized by...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Late quaternary; French Guiana; Shelf; Clay minerals; ENSO.
Ano: 1996 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00094/20506/18175.pdf
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The roles of climate and human land-use in the late Holocene rainforest crisis of Central Africa ArchiMer
Bayon, Germain; Schefuss, Enno; Dupont, Lydie; Borges, Alberto V.; Dennielou, Bernard; Lambert, Thibault; Mollenhauer, Gesine; Monin, Laurence; Ponzevera, Emmanuel; Skonieczny, Charlotte; Andre, Luc.
There is increasing evidence that abrupt vegetation shifts and large-scale erosive phases occurred in Central Africa during the third millennium before present. Debate exists as to whether these events were caused by climate change and/or intensifying human activities related to the Bantu expansion. In this study, we report on a multi-proxy investigation of a sediment core (KZR-23) recovered from the Congo submarine canyon. Our aim was to reconstruct climate, erosion and vegetation patterns in the Congo Basin for the last 10,000 yrs, with a particular emphasis on the late Holocene period. Samples of modern riverine suspended particulates were also analyzed to characterize sediment source geochemical signatures from across the Congo watershed. We find that...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Neodymium isotopes; Suspended particulates; Congo Basin; ENSO; Human land-use; Deforestation.
Ano: 2019 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00463/57467/59747.pdf
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Processes of interannual mixed layer temperature variability in the thermocline ridge of the Indian Ocean ArchiMer
Praveen Kumar, B.; Vialard, J.; Lengaigne, M.; Murty, V. S. N.; Foltz, G. R.; Mcphaden, M. J.; Pous, S.; De Boyer Montegut, Clement.
Sea-surface temperature interannual anomalies (SSTAs) in the thermocline ridge of the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean (TRIO) have several well-documented climate impacts. In this paper, we explore the physical processes responsible for SSTA evolution in the TRIO region using a combination of observational estimates and model-derived surface layer heat budget analyses. Vertical oceanic processes contribute most to SSTA variance from December to June, while lateral advection dominates from July to November. Atmospheric fluxes generally damp SSTA generation in the TRIO region. As a result of the phase opposition between the seasonal cycle of vertical processes and lateral advection, there is no obvious peak in SSTA amplitude in boreal winter, as previously...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Thermocline ridge of the Indian Ocean; Surface temperature interannual variability; ENSO; IOD.
Ano: 2014 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00185/29642/28051.pdf
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Reduced-dimension reconstruction of the equatorial Pacific SST and zonal wind fields over the past 10,000years using Mg/Ca and alkenone records ArchiMer
Gill, Emily C.; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Molnar, Peter; Marchitto, Thomas M..
We develop a multiproxy, reduced-dimension methodology to blend magnesium-calcium (Mg/Ca) and alkenone (U 37k) paleo sea surface temperature (SST) records from the eastern and western equatorial Pacific, to recreate snapshots of full field SSTs and zonal winds from 10 to 2ka B.P. in 2000year increments. Single-proxy reconstructions (Mg/Ca only versus U 37K only) reveal differences in the timing and duration of maximum cooling across the east-central equatorial Pacific. The largest zonal temperature differences (average west Pacific SST minus average east Pacific SST) occur at 6ka B.P. for the Mg/Ca-only reconstruction (0.61 degrees C) and at 10 and 4ka for the U 37K-only reconstruction (0.55 degrees C and 0.47 degrees C, respectively). Disagreements...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Sea surface temperatures; ENSO; Holocene; Multiproxy field reconstruction; Equatorial Pacific; Reduced-dimension.
Ano: 2016 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00421/53232/54785.pdf
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Eastern Tropical Pacific Climate And El Niño Variability During The Past Millennium ArchiMer
Rustic, Gerald Thomas.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been implicated in large-scale climate shifts of the past millennia, but paleoclimate records from the dynamically vital eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (EEP) spanning the past millennium are sparse. This has limited our understanding of tropical Pacific dynamics, leaving questions regarding the source of ENSO variability unanswered. Here I seek to address some of these questions regarding relationship between ENSO and tropical Pacific mean state, and the relationship between the tropical Pacific and large-scale climate. Mean EEP sea surface temperature (SST) for the past millennium was reconstructed using Mg/Ca ratios in Globigerinoides ruber from a sub-centennially resolved sediment core collected near the...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Eastern tropical pacific; ENSO; Foraminifera; Paleoceanography; Paleoclimate.
Ano: 2015 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00495/60657/64154.pdf
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Marine Environmental Regionalization for the Beibu Gulf Based on a Physical-Biological Model ArchiMer
Pan, Huanglei; Yu, Xiaolong; Liu, Dishi; Shi, Dalin; Yang, Shengyun; Pan, Weiran.
A physical–biological ocean model was employed to investigate characteristics of the Beibu Gulf in the northwest South China Sea (SCS) from 2011 to 2015. We adopted the spatially constrained multivariate clustering method to determine the refined marine environmental regionalization using 10 variables from the model output, and compared regionalization differences in ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) years. The simulated physical and biochemical variables display a wide spectrum of patterns in space and time. The regionalization maps indicated that the Qiongzhou Strait and its adjacent area can be classified as a separate region, characterized by the rich presence of nutrients, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detritus, owing to the water invasion from...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Beibu Gulf; Physical-biological model; Regionalization; Multivariate clustering; ENSO.
Ano: 2021 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00679/79109/81600.pdf
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SMOS reveals the signature of Indian Ocean Dipole events ArchiMer
Durand, F; Alory, Gael; Dussin, Raphael; Reul, Nicolas.
The tropical Indian Ocean experiences an interannual mode of climatic variability, known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The signature of this variability in ocean salinity is hypothesized based on modeling and assimilation studies, on account of scanty observations. Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite has been designed to take up the challenge of sea surface salinity remote sensing. We show that SMOS data can be used to infer the pattern of salinity variability linked with the IOD events. The core of maximum variability is located in the central tropical basin, south of the equator. This region is anomalously salty during the 2010 negative IOD event, and anomalously fresh during the 2011 positive IOD event. The peak-to-peak anomaly exceeds...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: SSS; Indian Ocean Dipole; SMOS; ARGO; ENSO.
Ano: 2013 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00161/27234/25481.pdf
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Northwest African upwelling scenario ArchiMer
Hagen, E.
Observations, hypotheses and derived scenarios are discussed for the Northwest-African coastal upwelling area. The process of coastal upwelling is considered to be composed of a climatic steady-state part and fluctuations acting on different spatial and temporal scales. Attention is focused on disturbances acting globally on the inter-annual time-scale. EI Nino-like changes occur in the system of trade winds and modify the equatorial regime of currents as well as the coastal upwelling regimes on both flanks of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone. There is an opposite thermal response in near-surface layers along the zonal coast in the Gulf of Guinea and along the meridional coast off NW-Africa. Off the continental slope of Senegal and Mauritania, the...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Afrique occidentale; Alizé du nord-est; Upwelling côtier; Sous-courant sud-nord; ENSO; Northwest Africa; Northeast trade wind; Coastal upwelling; Poleward undercurrent; ENSO.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00291/40269/38645.pdf
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Impacts of climatic anomalies on provisioning strategies of a Southern Ocean predator ArchiMer
Lea, Mary-anne; Guinet, Christophe; Cherel, Yves; Duhamel, Guy; Dubroca, Laurent; Pruvost, Patrice; Hindell, Mark.
The large temporal and spatial variability in marine productivity encountered by marine predators may negatively influence breeding success. The Antarctic fur seal Arctocephalus gazella (AFS), a marine predator in the Southern Ocean (SO) ecosystem with a circumpolar distribution, exhibits a short, 4 mo lactation coinciding with increased summer marine productivity. The diet of AFS, and the distance to significant and productive oceanographic features, such as the Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone (PFZ), varies considerably between populations. We studied the foraging activity, foraging efficiency and the pup provisioning strategies of lactating AFS at a key breeding site in the southern Indian Ocean, the Kerguelen Archipelago. Foraging parameters were examined...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Antarctic fur seal; Polar front; Pinniped; ENSO; Foraging; Growth; Diving; Seabird; Myctophid; Maternal care.
Ano: 2006 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00247/35847/34356.pdf
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Ecology of small terrestrial mammals in an isolated Cerrado patch, eastern Paraguay: communities, species, and effects of enso, precipitation, and fire Mastozool. neotrop.
Owen,Robert D.
The Cerrado extends as islands or patches into the Upper Paraná Atlantic Forest (UPAF) of Brazil and Paraguay. This study evaluates the temporal dynamics of a marginal terrestrial small-mammal community in an isolated Cerrado patch within the UPAF, at the southwestern distributional limit of the Cerrado and near the western limit of the UPAF in eastern Paraguay. Because the faunal members of marginal communities are living near the limits of their capabilities in terms of their abiotic and biotic environment, the communities in such areas are likely to be a mixture of Cerrado and UPAF species, sensitive to extrinsic variables such as climate change and anthropogenic changes in land use. In this 23-month study, temporal dynamics of a terrestrial...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Cricetidae; Didelphidae; Echimyidae; Fire; ENSO; Precipitation.
Ano: 2013 URL: http://www.scielo.org.ar/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0327-93832013000100007
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AN ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF ENSO (EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) ON GLOBAL CROP YIELDS AgEcon
Ferris, John N..
Forecasts of global crop yields prior to planting have generally been single values, based entirely on past trends. Regression analysis testing a combination of data from ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) and ARMA models suggests that yield forecasting errors can be reduced, generating more normal distributions of these errors. Keywords: El Niño, ENSO, forecasting crop yields, long range weather forecasting, agricultural modeling, food security, risk management
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: El Niño; ENSO; Forecasting crop yields; Long range weather forecasting; Agricultural modeling; Food security; Risk management; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11741
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Weather, Climate, and Agricultural Disaster Payments in the Southeastern U.S. AgEcon
Nadolnyak, Denis A.; Hartarska, Valentina M..
Direct disaster payments have been criticized as inefficient and inequitable. In this article, the impact of weather and climate, as well as economic and political variables, on crop disaster payments is analyzed using county level data from four states in the southeastern United States. The results of panel data analysis suggest that weather and climate variables explain most of the crop disaster payments at the county level while socioeconomic and political variables do not, suggesting that advancements in weather and climate forecasts could be helpful in budgeting.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Disaster assistance; Weather; ENSO; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51802
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Designing Rainfall Insurance Contracts for Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage AgEcon
Nadolnyak, Denis A.; Vedenov, Dmitry V..
In the paper, preliminary results of the analysis of potential use of climate forecast information in designing rainfall index insurance in the southeastern region of the U.S. are reported. Joint distributions of bi-monthly rainfall and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indexes are estimated using copula analysis of historical data. The risk reducing effectiveness of introducing premiums conditional on ENSO forecast is evaluated. The results indicate some dependence of the downward volatility of rainfall on the lagged ENSO (forecast) index, particularly in the coastal areas and in the late winter and spring.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Rainfall index insurance; ENSO; Copulas; Agricultural Finance; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Q14; Q54.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56511
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Climate Effects on Rainfall Index Insurance Purchase Decisions AgEcon
Novak, James L.; Nadolnyak, Denis A..
Rainfall Index insurance is a pilot insurance product offered to producers of hay and pasture in 9 states. This analysis examines the expected payoff of the RI insurance for bi-monthly periods based on rainfall shortage probabilities in alternative climate phases. Differences in expected returns indicate that selection of ENSO-specific optimal intervals may result in higher returns than those based on pooled rainfall series.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Rainfall insurance; ENSO; Expected indemnity; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46834
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Determinants of Farmers' Resilience towards ENSO-Related Drought: Evidence from Central Sulawesi, Indonesia AgEcon
Keil, Alwin; Zeller, Manfred; Wida, Anastasia; Sanim, Bunasor; Birner, Regina.
Crop production in the tropics is subject to considerable climate variability caused by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. In Southeast Asia, El Niño causes comparatively dry conditions leading to substantial declines of crop yields. In concert with global warming, the frequency and severity of the phenomenon are likely to increase during the 21st century. Little is known about the impact of ENSO-related drought on the welfare of farm households in developing countries. This paper seeks to contribute to closing this knowledge gap with a case study from Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. Its objective is to measure household resilience towards drought periods and identify its influencing factors to deduce policy implications. Using...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: ENSO; Drought resilience; Risk management; Technical efficiency; Indonesia; Farm Management; Q54; Q12.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25592
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Mitigating the impact of El Nino-related drought on smallholder farmers in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia: An interdisciplinary modelling approach combining linear programming with stochastic simulation AgEcon
Keil, Alwin; Teufel, Nils; Gunawan, Dodo; Leemhuis, Constanze.
Crop production in the tropics is subject to considerable climate variability caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. In Southeast Asia, El Niño causes comparatively dry conditions leading to substantial declines of crop yields with severe consequences for the welfare of local farm households. Using a modelling approach that combines regression analysis with linear programming and stochastic simulation, and integrates climatic and hydrologic modelling results, the objective of this paper is to assess the impact of El Niño on agricultural incomes of smallholder farmers in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, and to identify suitable crop management strategies to mitigate the income depressions. The results contribute to the formulation of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: ENSO; Risk management; Linear programming; Stochastic simulation; Indonesia; Farm Management.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7942
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When ENSO Reigns, It Pours: Climate Forecasts in Flood Planning AgEcon
Wernstedt, Kris; Hersh, Robert.
Recent scientific and technical advances have increased the potential use of long-term seasonal climate forecasts for improving water resource management. This paper examines the role that forecasts, in particular those based on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, can play in flood planning in the Pacific Northwest. While strong evidence of an association between ENSO signals and flooding in the region exists, this association is open to more than one interpretation depending on: a) the metric used to test the strength of the association; b) the definition of critical flood events; c) site-specific features of watersheds; and d) the characteristics of flood management institutions. A better understanding and appreciation of such ambiguities,...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Flooding; Climate; ENSO; Water resources planning; Water policy; Water management; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q2.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10603
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Flood Planning and Climate Forecasts at the Local Level AgEcon
Wernstedt, Kris; Hersh, Robert.
We examine the use of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts for flood planning in the Pacific Northwest. Using theories of resource mobilization as a conceptual foundation, the paper relies on: 1) case studies of three communities vulnerable to flooding that have had access to long-term forecasts of ENSO conditions; and 2) analysis of data collected from a survey of nearly 60 local emergency managers, planners, and public works staff. We find that understanding the regulatory machinery and other institutions involved in using climate forecasts is critical to more effective use of these forecasts. Forecast use could be promoted by: 1) an extension service to broker climate information; 2) the identification or creation of federal authorities to fund...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Flooding; ENSO; La Nina; Climate variability; Climate forecast; Natural hazards; Water policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q2.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10813
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