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Since When Have FOREX Markets Incorporated EMU into Currency Pricing? Evidence from Four Exchange Rate Series AgEcon
Wilfling, Bernd.
Recent theory on exchange rate dynamics suggests that the mere announcement of regime switching from floating to fixed rates at a given future date triggers a reduction in exchange rate volatility during the interim period. Using a Markov-switching GARCH model this paper estimates the volatility processes of four EMU exchange rate returns vis-à-vis the German mark using daily data for the time prior to Stage III of EMU. Statistical inference yields the dates at which financial markets began to incorporate the expected EMU participation of each country into currency pricing. The data exhibits strong econometric evidence for two distinct views concerning the ultimate EMU membership: (1) Finland and France were considered irrefutable EMU members long before...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: EMU; Exchange rate policy; Volatility; Regime-switching GARCH models; Financial Economics; F31; F33; C51.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26136
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RUSSIAN AGRI-FOOD SECTOR: 16 MONTHS AFTER THE BREAKDOWN OF THE MONETARY SYSTEM AgEcon
Poganietz, Witold-Roger.
In August 1998 the Russian foreign exchange market and financial system collapsed. As a consequence the rouble devaluated in real terms against the currencies of the main trade partners, generating an output push in the agri-food sector. This improved the financial health of most producer, thus "opening a window of opportunity" enhancing the long run growth prospects. But, it is not apparent whether the agri-food sector make use of the enhanced circumstances. Insufficient incentive systems due to non-enforcement of legal rules within firms and farms and lack of credibility of Russian government promote a rent-seeking behaviour of employer and employees. Thus, it could be expected, that the non-price competitiveness of Russian products will rather worsen...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agri-food sector; Macroeconomic environment; Exchange rate policy; Agricultural credit market; Russia; O13; P24; Q19; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14937
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