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Trade and Development When Exports Lack Diversification: A Case Study From Malawi AgEcon
Persaud, Suresh Chand; Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager.
Developing countries, particularly those that depend heavily on a small number of agricultural exports, are vulnerable to domestic and international shocks. These countries often have difficulty achieving sustained economic growth. This analysis uses Malawi, a country that earns most of its foreign exchange from tobacco, as a case study of export concentration and heavy exposure to volatility. The econometric results suggest that the decline in Malawi’s gross domestic product (GDP) when tobacco exports are falling is almost three times greater than the increase in GDP when exports are rising. Model-based simulations indicate that variability in tobacco exports leads to slower economic growth because GDP falls by a relatively large amount in response to a...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Malawi; Tobacco; Export-led growth; Asymmetry; Volatility; Productivity; Trade; Development; Marketing efficiency; Price transmission; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Environmental Economics and Policy; Financial Economics; International Relations/Trade; Production Economics.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55943
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Bilateral Trade and Economic Growth: The Empirical Evidence Between U.S. and South Korea AgEcon
Kang, Hyunsoo; Kennedy, P. Lynn.
This paper analyzes the relationships between bilateral trade and economic growth in the U.S. and Korean economies. Using quarterly data from 1990 to 2008, the theoretical procedures utilize Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) models under the static model assumption, an Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast Error Variation Decomposition (FEVD) under the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, and Granger causality tests. Empirical results indicate a causal relationship between bilateral export growth and economic growth for the U.S. and Korean economies. The export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis is strongly supported by the results of Granger causality tests on Korean exports.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Export-led growth; Bilateral trade; Granger causality; South Korea; United States; International Relations/Trade; Political Economy; Production Economics.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90684
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