SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Marchant, Mary A.; Cornell, Dyana N.; Koo, Won W..

International agricultural trade has evolved over time. Processed foods and developing countries have become major growth markets for U.S. agricultural exports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) has become even more important than exports as a means of accessing foreign markets. The critical question is whether FDI is a substitute for or a complement of exports. This research builds upon an existing theoretical FDI model and contributes to the literature through the development of a simultaneous equation system for FDI and exports, which is estimated using two-stage least squares. Empirical analyses were used to examine the relationship between U.S. FDI and exports of processed foods into East Asian countries - China, Japan, Singapore, South Korea,...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: East Asia; Exports; Foreign direct investment; International trade; Processed foods; International Relations/Trade; F47; Q17; C3; F17.

Ano: 2002

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15471

Removing Distortions in the U.S. Ethanol Market: What Does It Imply for the United States and Brazil?

Elobeid, Amani E.; Tokgoz, Simla.

We analyze the impact of trade liberalization and removal of the federal tax credit in the United States on U.S. and Brazilian ethanol markets using a multi-market international ethanol model calibrated on 2005 market data and policies. The removal of trade distortions induces a 23.9 percent increase in the price of world ethanol on average between 2006 and 2015 relative to the baseline. The U.S. domestic ethanol price decreases by 13.6 percent, which results in a 7.2 percent decline in production and a 3.8 percent increase in consumption. The lower domestic price leads to a 3.7 percent rise in the share of fuel ethanol in gasoline consumption. U.S. net ethanol imports increase by 199 percent. Brazil responds to the higher world ethanol price by increasing...

Competition between the U.S. and West Africa in International Cotton Trade: A Focus on Import Demand in China

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Ethanol; Renewable fuels; Trade liberalization; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; F13; F17; Q17; Q18; Q42.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9808

Muhammad, Andrew; McPhail, Lihong Lu; Kiawu, James.

We estimate the demand for imported cotton in China and assess the competitiveness of cotton-exporting countries. Given the assertion that African cotton producers are ill affected by U.S. cotton subsidies, our focus is the price competition between the C4 countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad and Mali) and United States in China. Demand estimates are used to project how U.S. prices affect China’s imports by country. In comparing demand projections, results show that the relationship between the United States and the C4 has more to do with how U.S. prices can affect global prices rather than any substitute or competitive relationship in the Chinese market.

The Effects of Energy Price Increases on Dutch Horticulture

Palavras-chave: Africa; China; Cotton; Demand; Imports; United States; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; F17; Q11; Q17.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103210

Bunte, Frank H.J.; van Galen, Michiel A..

This paper elaborates on the effects of a rise in energy costs for Dutch glasshouse horticultural producers. The effects on production, bilateral trade and consumption in 25 European countries plus Morocco, Turkey and the Rest of the World, are estimated using a version of the HORTUS partial equilibrium supply and demand model. This model includes 11 sorts of fruit and vegetables, and two categories of ornamental plants and flowers. As energy, especially natural gas, is a major intermediate input in Dutch glasshouse horticulture, it has potentially large impacts on producers and trade. The results indicate that a 10 percent increase in energy prices could cause significant shifts in production and trade flows, as well as some changes in consumption...

Extending General Equilibrium to the Tariff Line: U.S. Dairy in the DOHA Development Agenda

Palavras-chave: Energy costs; Glasshouse vegetables and flowers; Model of international trade; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; F15; F17; Q17.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24717

Grant, Jason H.; Hertel, Thomas W.; Rutherford, Thomas F..

Market access has been at the core of eight negotiating rounds of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). Yet, agricultural trade remains a heavily protected sector, characterized by higher tariffs relative to industrial goods, large tariff dispersions, numerous specific tariffs and systems of tariff-rate-quotas. This has made the analysis of trade liberalization a formidable task among policy analysts. Previous studies of agricultural trade liberalization have used partial or general equilibrium models of trade. However, each of these modeling strategies has their drawbacks. General equilibrium (GE) models have been criticized because they face serious aggregation issues and miss much of the policy detail that occurs at the tariff line. Partial...

VALUING TRADEABLE CO2 PERMITS FOR OECD COUNTRIES

Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade; Mixed-complementarity problem; Partial equilibrium; General equilibrium; Doha Development Agenda; WTO; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries; F01; F17; Q17; Q18.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25305

Karp, Larry S.; Liu, Xuemei.

We estimate a structural model of OECD countries in which GDP and CO2 emissions are endogenous. We use the estimated model to simulate the price of tradeable CO2 permits and the efficiency gains from trade. Our estimated prices are high, relative to previous estimates, and the efficiency gains are substantial. We also find, contrary to previous literature, that higher income is associated with reduced emissions.

Increasing the United States Tariff-Rate Sugar Quota for Cuba and Mexico: A Partial-Equilibrium Simulation

Palavras-chave: Tradeable permits; Greenhouse gasses; Carbon reductions; Environmental Kuznets curve; F17; Q28; Q43; Farm Management.

Ano: 1998

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25054

Petrolia, Daniel R.; Kennedy, P. Lynn.

Increases in the United States tariff-rate quota for sugar are simulated to determine the impact of Cuban market access and an increased Mexican allotment. The effects on both domestic and international sugar markets, including production, consumption, prices and trade, are determined and welfare effects identified. This analysis is carried out using a partial-equilibrium simplified world trade model, Modele International Simplifie de Simulation (MISS), which simulates, in a comparative-static framework, the effects of various policy actions.

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Cuba; Mexico; Sugar; Tariff-rate quota; F13; F17; Q17.

Ano: 2003

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43200

Liberalising EU Imports for Fruits and Vegetables

Bunte, Frank H.J..

This paper quantifies the impact of abolishing EU import barriers with respect to fruits and vegetables for sixteen fruits and vegetables. The estimations made are based on HORTUS, a supply and demand model for fruits and vegetables developed at LEI. HORTUS models the production, consumption and bilateral trade in fruits and vegetables for all EU25-countries, Morocco, Turkey and the Rest of the World. The paper shows that trade liberalisation has a large impact on European fruit production and trade. EU fruit production and exports are likely to fall substantially. European vegetable production and exports are relatively sheltered and are likely to benefit from the decline in EU fruit production.

Tariff-Rate Quotas and Agricultural Trade: An Application to the Agricultural Free-Trade Negotiation between the MERCOSUR and the EU

Palavras-chave: Trade liberalisation; Economic integration; Fruits and vegetables; International Relations/Trade; F15; F17; Q17.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24473

Drogue, Sophie; Ramos, Maria Priscila.

In October 2004 the European Union and the MERCOSUR tried to reach an agreement for creating what would be the world's largest free-trade area accounting for 650 millions people. But despite five years of bilateral work to strike a deal, the two parties stayed on ropes at their meeting in Portugal the 18th of October 2004. The stumbling blocks are the MERCOSUR's demand for a greater access to EU's agricultural markets and the EU's demand for expanded access for industrial goods, services and investments. Though, both partners made great efforts to comply with each other requests, it wasn't enough. In this paper we are interested in the possible last EU's offer to enlarge access to its market through the allocation of bilateral tariff-rate quotas for some...

Are The Poverty Effects of Trade Policies Invisible?

Palavras-chave: MERCOSUR; European Union; Agricultural trade; TRQ; GTAP; International Relations/Trade; D58; F17; F15.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24637

Verma, Monika; Valenzuela, Ernesto; Hertel, Thomas W..

With the advent of the WTO’s Doha Development Agenda, as well as the Millennium Development Goals aiming to reduce poverty by 50 percent by 2015, poverty impacts of trade reforms have attracted increasing attention. This has been particularly true of agricultural trade reform due to the importance of food in the diets of the poor, relatively higher protection in agriculture, as well as the heavy concentration of global poverty in rural areas where agriculture is the main source of income. Yet some in this debate have argued that, given the extreme volatility in agricultural commodity markets, the additional price and poverty impacts due to trade liberalization might well be undetectable. This paper formally tests this “invisibility hypothesis” via...

How does tariff-rate quota modelling affect CGE results? An application for MIRAGE

Palavras-chave: Trade policy reform; Agricultural trade; Computable general equilibrium; Developing countries; Poverty headcount; Volatility; Stochastic simulation; Non-parametric hypothesis testing; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; C68; F17; I32; Q17; R20.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61793

Decreux, Yvan; Ramos, Maria Priscila.

Since the Uruguay Round Agricultural Agreement (URAA) entered into force in 1994, tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) have become the most widely used trade policy instrument to improve agricultural market access while at the same time controlling import volumes. Until now, the MIRAGE CGE model only takes into account the exogenous quota rents (MAcMap-HS6 database) allocated entirely to exporters. Unfortunately, this methodology does not authorise any regime when trade policy changes (e.g. a quota-volume increase for very sensitive agricultural products or a tariff reduction). In order to improve the treatment of TRQs in MIRAGE we model them as bilateral TRQs at the HS6 level using MAcMapHS6-v2 database. Assuming a simple scenario of bilateral trade agreement...

An EU-Canada bilateral trade agreement: A DefraTAP application

Palavras-chave: Tariff-rate quota; TRQ; TRQ administration methods; CGE model; MIRAGE; International Relations/Trade; F13; F15; F17; Q17.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7206

Kitou, Elisavet; Philippidis, George.

The first round of negotiations held in Ottawa on the 19th October, 2009, heralded the opening of bilateral trade talks intent on reaching a Canadian-European Union (EU27) free trade area (FTA) agreement. A second round of negotiations were staged in Brussels in January, whilst further rounds are scheduled for 2010, with the longer term aim of ratifying an agreement within 24-30 months. Although stumbling blocs will be encountered, the divergent political interests of each region are compatible. In Canada, a FTA with its second largest trading partner offers a viable alternative to its current overdependence on the US. Similarly, the EU27 sees an opportunity to regain a competitive foothold in the North American market. This paper re-examines the long run...

Climate Change and Food Security to 2050: A Global Economy-wide Perspective

Palavras-chave: EU27; Canada; Economic integration; Sensitive products; International Relations/Trade; C68; F11; F15; F17.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91679

Valenzuela, Ernesto; Anderson, Kym.

Recent analyses of the possible adverse effects of climate change on agriculture in developing countries have raised food security concerns, especially for farm households whose crop productivity is expected to fall. The present study uses the GTAP global economy-wide model to capture at the same time the expected positive effects on temperate zone crop productivity, which will more or less offset the upward pressure on farm product prices from yield falls in developing countries. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity on the productivity of unskilled workers in the tropics, but since they work in nonfarm as well as farm activities the net effect of that shock on agriculture’s competitiveness is an empirical matter....

Agricultural trade liberalisation in the Doha Round: impacts on Spain

Palavras-chave: Climate change; Crop and labour productivity growth; Global computable general equilibrium model projections; Productivity Analysis; D58; F17; Q17; Q24; Q54.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100531

Preferential Trade Agreements: The Case of EU-Mexico

Philippidis, George.

Whilst there is a growing literature of computable general equilibrium (CGE) studies examining the impacts of the current Doha Proposals, estimates for the EU are highly aggregated (i.e., EU15). Employing a detailed baseline scenario and a plausible Doha outcome, we examine the long run costs for the European Union, in particular focusing on Spain. Moreover, we implement recent CAP reforms through explicitly modelling of CAP mechanisms to provide greater credibility in assessing the long run asymmetric budgetary and welfare impacts on EU member states. Our estimates forecast resource substitution effects between Spanish agro-food sectors and resource shifts from agro-food activities into manufacturing and services production. In Spain, the impacts of...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Doha Round; Spain; EU; CAP; Computable General Equilibrium.; F1; F13; F17; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28790

Busse, Matthias; Huth, Matthias; Koopmann, Georg.

The paper evaluates the political and economic incentives to conclude the EU-Mexico Free Trade Agreement (FTA). It discusses EU and Mexican trade policy as well as the multilateral context for FTAs. In addition, using a disaggregated approach at the three-digit Standard International Trade Classification, it identifies the commodities that will be particularly affected by the FTA. The results show that considerable trade effects can be expected in a narrow range of products and that the EU is likely to gain much more than Mexico. In diesem Papier werden die politischen und ökonomischen Anreize zur Vereinbarung des Freihandelsabkommens zwischen der EU und Mexiko bewertet. Dafür werden die europäische und mexikanische Handelspolitik analysiert und der...

Imports in the Washington State Economy: Importance and Regional Effects of Import Liberalization

Palavras-chave: Free Trade Agreement; European Union; Mexico; International Relations/Trade; F15; F17.

Ano: 2000

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26269

Wieck, Christine; Wahl, Thomas I..

This paper focuses on the import side of a regional economy quantifying the economic impact of import levels and trade liberalization. An innovation represents the linkage of a regional with a national model by combining two separate Computable General Equilibrium models into one framework. This allows for import price formation in liberalization scenarios on the national level and subsequent incorporation of these nationally simulated prices into the regional model. The regional model is applied to Washington State, one of the most trade dependent states of the U.S, the national model to the U.S. Data for the two identically structured models origin from the IMPLAN database which divides the U.S. and Washington economy into 509 industries. For both...

Allowing for Group Effects When Estimating Import Demand for Source and Product Differentiated Goods

Palavras-chave: Computable General equilibrium; Regional modelling; Trade liberalization; International Relations/Trade; C68; R13; F17.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9861

Muhammad, Andrew.

In this study an import demand model (differential production model) is presented that is used in estimating the demand for source and product differentiated goods simultaneously. Unlike the traditional import demand models, this model can account for changes in relative group expenditures. Expenditure estimates differed when comparing the differential production model and Rotterdam model results. Results showed that if group revenue shares are relatively fixed, then the bias in expenditure estimates due to omitting group effects will be small when using traditional demand models such as the AIDS or Rotterdam models. As relative group shares significantly change and diverge the bias increases, particularly for imports representing a larger share of group...

Do U.S. Cotton Subsidies Affect Competing Exporters? An Analysis of Import Demand in China

Palavras-chave: Import demand; AIDS model; Rotterdam model; Product differentiation; Source differentiation; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; F17; Q17; Q11..

Ano: 2008

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6364

Muhammad, Andrew; McPhail, Lihong Lu; Kiawu, James.

We estimate the demand for imported cotton in China and assess the competitiveness of cotton-exporting countries. Given the assertion that developing countries are negatively affected by U.S. cotton subsidies, our focus is the price competition between the United States and competing exporters (Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, India, and Uzbekistan). We further project how U.S. programs affect China’s imports by country. Results indicate that if U.S. subsidies make other exporting countries worse off, this effect is lessened when global prices respond accordingly. If subsidies are eliminated, China’s cotton imports may not fully recover from the temporary spike in global prices.

Tipo: Article

Palavras-chave: China; Cotton; Import demand; Rotterdam model; Subsidies; United States; West Africa; International Relations/Trade; F17; Q11; Q17.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123786

Cattle Trade and the Risk of Importing Animal Diseases into the Netherlands

Achterbosch, Thom J.; Dopfer, Dorte D.V.; Tabeau, Andrzej A..

Projections of live cattle trade in the EU-25 assist to reduce the uncertainty on the risk of importing animal diseases in the Netherlands. The accession of 10 member states to the European Union has a potentially large impact on livestock trade in the EU as it liberalized in one stroke a trade that was administered by the Management Committee for Beef until May 1, 2004. The approach combines AG-Memod partial equilibrium with GTAP general equilibrium modelling in order to estimate the impact of quota liberalization. Quota removal will substantially alter the regional structure of livestock imports, as the share of new EU member states in the east triples to 25%. The risk outlook indicates a need for enhanced animal health services in the new member states.

Shipping the good beef out: EU trade liberalization to Mercosur exports

Palavras-chave: Livestock; Animal disease; Trade; Projections; Quota; EU-enlargement; Risk and Uncertainty; F17; I18; Q17.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24558

Ramos, Maria Priscila; Bureau, Jean-Christophe; Salvatici, Luca.

The European Union tariff schedule includes a large number of specific and composite tariffs as well as many tariff-rate quotas (TRQs), which affect the composition of imports. By altering price ratios between products with different unit values, both can generate the typical Alchian-Allen ’shipping the good apples out’ effect in foreign countries’ exports to the EU. Different patterns of trade liberalization, either through tariff reduction or an expansion in preferential-access quotas, might have different consequences for producers and consumers because of changes in the composition of trade. We illustrate the issues at stake in the beef sector, focusing on Mercosur exports to the EU. We model import demand for different qualities in the presence of a...