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Climate change and food security to 2030: a global economy-wide perspective AgEcon
Valenzuela, Ernesto; Anderson, Kym.
The effects of climate change on agriculture raise major food security concerns. We use a global economy-wide model to assess the effects on farm product prices of expected yield changes. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity in the tropics on the productivity of unskilled workers in developing countries. Given the degrees of uncertainty about plausible effects of climate change, our modelling accounts for a range of yield productivity and labor shocks. The results entail consequences for international agricultural prices, national food consumption, self sufficiency, net farm income and economic welfare.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Climate change; Crop and labor productivity growth; Global economy-wide model projections; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Food Security and Poverty; D58; F17; Q17; Q24; Q54.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117616
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Global food markets by 2030: What roles for farm TFP growth and trade policies? AgEcon
Anderson, Kym; Strutt, Anna.
Rapid trade-led economic growth in emerging Asia has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade but also altering the commodity composition of trade by Asia and other regions. What began with Japan in the 1950s and Korea and Taiwan from the late 1960s has spread to the much more populous ASEAN region, China and India. This paper examines how that growth and associated structural changes are altering agricultural markets in particular and thereby food security. It does so retrospectively and by projecting a model of the world economy which compares alternative growth strategies, trade policy scenarios and savings behaviors to 2030. Projected impacts on...
Tipo: Presentation Palavras-chave: Global economy-wide model projections; Asian economic growth and structural change; South-South trade; Booming sector economics; Food security; International Relations/Trade; Marketing; D58; F13; F15; F17; Q17.
Ano: 2012 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124192
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