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Registros recuperados: 8
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Valuing Transgenic Cotton Technologies Using a Risk/Return Framework AgEcon
Bryant, Kelly J.; Reeves, Jeanne M.; Nichols, Robert L.; Greene, Jeremy K.; Tingle, Christopher H.; Studebaker, Glenn E.; Bourland, Fred M.; Capps, Charles D.; Groves, Frank E..
Stochastic Efficiency with Respect to a Function (SERF) is used to rank transgenic cotton technology groups and place an upper and lower bound on their value. Yield and production data from replicated plot experiments are used to build cumulative distribution functions of returns for nontransgenic, Roundup Ready, Bollgard, and stacked gene cotton cultivars. Analysis of Arkansas data indicated that the stacked gene and Roundup Ready technologies would be preferred by a large number of risk neutral and risk averse producers as long as the costs of the technology and seed are below the lower bounds calculated in this manuscript.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Cotton; Financial risk; Market value; SERF; Transgenic; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q16.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/47257
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An Economic Risk Analysis of Stocker Grazing on Conservation Tillage Small Grains Forage in Arkansas AgEcon
Watkins, K. Bradley; Hignight, Jeffrey A.; Beck, Paul A.; Anders, Merle M.; Hubbell, Donald S., III; Gadberry, Shane.
This study evaluates both the profitability and risk efficiency of grazing stocker steers on conservation tillage winter wheat pasture using simulation and stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF). Average daily gains are simulated for steers grazed on conventional tillage (CT), reduced tillage (RT) and no-till (NT) winter wheat pasture. Steer price distributions and prices for key production inputs such as diesel, fertilizer, and glyphosate are also simulated. Stocker steer net return distributions by tillage treatment are constructed and ranked for risk efficiency using SERF. The results indicate the NT system is the most profitable and most risk efficient of the three tillage systems, followed by the RT system. Both conservation tillage...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: No-till; Profitability; Reduced tillage; Risk; SERF; Stocker grazing; Winter wheat; Farm Management; Production Economics.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56356
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Risk and the decision to produce biomass crops: a stochastic analysis AgEcon
Clancy, Daragh; Breen, James P.; Thorne, Fiona S.; Wallace, Michael T..
There is increasing interest in biomass crops as an alternative farm enterprise. However, given the relatively low uptake of these crops in Ireland, there is limited information concerning the risk associated with their production and its potential impact on returns. The uncertainty surrounding risky variables such as the costs of production, yield level, price per tonne and opportunity cost of land make it difficult to accurately calculate the returns to biomass crops. Their lengthy production lifespan may only serve to heighten the level of risk that affects key variables. A stochastic budgeting model is used to calculate the returns from willow and miscanthus. The opportunity cost of land is accounted for through the inclusion of the foregone returns...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Biomass; Bioremediation; Stochastic Budgeting; NPV; SERF; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91955
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Risk and Income Risk Management Issues for Organic Crops in Greece AgEcon
Tzouramani, Irene; Karanikolas, Pavlos; Alexopoulos, George.
Drawing upon a comparative case study of organic and conventional farming in Western Greece, the aim of this study is threefold: firstly, to explore the organic and conventional farmers’ profile through a factor analysis. Secondly, to assess the economic viability of organic cultivation with respect to profitability and risk behaviour, through a Monte Carlo stochastic simulation model. Thirdly, to discuss the necessity for additional income insurance schemes. Research findings indicate that the organic cropping system currently stands out as the most economically viable alternative under the assumption of the existing payments; without payments, however, conventional agriculture would be preferred by all farmers, regardless of their degree of risk aversion
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Organic crops; Income variability; Risk analysis; SERF; Agricultural policy.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48116
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STOCHASTIC EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE BASIC MAIZE MARKETING STRATEGIES AgEcon
Strydom, D.B.; Grove, Bennie; Kruger, Y.; Willemse, B.J..
The use of modern marketing strategies to minimize risk exposure is not a widely adopted practice under maize producers. The producers tend to use high risk strategies which include the selling of the crop on the cash market after harvested; while the current market requires innovative strategies including the use of Futures and Options as traded on SAFEX. However, due to a lack of interest and knowledge of producers understanding of modern, complicated strategies the study illustrates by using a SERF and CDF that the use of three basic strategies namely a Put-, Twelve-segment-, Three-segment- can be more rewarding. These strategies can be adopted by farmers without an in-depth understanding of the market and market-signals. The results obtained from the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Marketing strategies; Futures; Options; SERF; Crop Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96812
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MODELLING ECONOMIC ALTERNATIVES FOR TOBACCO PRODUCERS: THE CASE OF SHEEP FARMING AgEcon
Tzouramani, Irene; Karanikolas, Pavlos; Alexopoulos, George; Sintori, Alexandra; Liontakis, Angelos E..
After the introduction of the new tobacco regime, many regions in Greece, formerly specialized in tobacco cultivation, are now facing serious threats of economic and social decline. Sheep farming is considered by many analysts as a viable alternative to tobacco. This study analyses the financial performance of sheep production and the risk that producers are taking. Through a stochastic efficiency analysis with respect to a function we explore the economic viability of conventional and organic sheep farming; key factors determining the economic outcome of these activities are also investigated. Both organic and conventional sheep farming appear as viable alternatives. The viability of organic farming lies, mainly, in organic payments. Conventional farming...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Organic farming; Dairy sheep; Risk analysis; SERF; Agricultural policy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6695
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Bio-ethanol Production from Wheat in the Winter Rainfall Region of South Africa: A Quantitative Risk Analysis AgEcon
Richardson, James W.; Lemmer, Wessel J.; Outlaw, Joe L..
Contrary to developments in other parts of the world, South Africa has not developed a bio-ethanol industry. The objective was to quantify the risks and economic viability of a wheat based bio-ethanol plant in the winter rainfall region of South Africa. Monte Carlo simulation of a bio-ethanol plant was used to quantify the risk that investors will likely face. Under the Base scenario a 103 million liter bio-ethanol plant would not offer a reasonable chance of being economically viable. Alternative price enhancing policies were analyzed to determine policy changes needed to make a bio-ethanol plant economically viable in the region.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Ethanol; Risk analysis; Simulation; Economic viability; Simetar; SERF; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8192
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Valuing the risk associated with willow and miscanthus relative to conventional agricultural systems AgEcon
Clancy, Daragh; Breen, James P.; Butler, Anne Marie; Thorne, Fiona S.; Wallace, Michael T..
The agronomic characteristics of willow and miscanthus make these crops highly susceptible to risk. This is particularly true in a country such as Ireland which has limited experience in the production of these crops. Issues such as soil and climate suitability have as yet to be resolved. The lengthy production lifespan of energy crops only serve to heighten the level of risk that affects key variables. The uncertainty surrounding the risk variables involved in producing willow and miscanthus, such as the annual yield level and the energy price, make it difficult to accurately calculate the returns of such a project. The returns from willow and miscanthus are compared with those of conventional agricultural enterprises using Stochastic Efficiency with...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Biomass; SERF; Risk Premium; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43972
Registros recuperados: 8
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