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Registros recuperados: 7
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Using Participatory Scenario Planning to Identify Ecosystem Services in Changing Landscapes Ecology and Society
Malinga, Rebecka; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; rebecka.malinga@stockholmresilience.su.se; Gordon, Line J.; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; line.gordon@stockholmresilience.su.se; Lindborg, Regina; Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University; regina.lindborg@natgeo.su.se; Jewitt, Graham; Centre for Water Resources Research, Umgeni Water Chair of Water Resources Management, University of KwaZulu-Natal ; jewittg@ukzn.ac.za.
There is a growing interest in assessing ecosystem services to improve ecosystem management in landscapes containing a mix of different ecosystems. While methodologies for assessing ecosystem services are constantly improving, only little attention has been given to the identification of which ecosystem services to assess. Service selection is mostly based on current state of the landscape although many landscapes are both inherently complex and rapidly changing. In this study we examine whether scenario development, a tool for dealing with uncertainties and complexities of the future, gives important insights into the selection of ecosystem services in changing landscapes. Using an agricultural landscape in South Africa we compared different sets of...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Complexity; Ecosystem services; Future; Landscape; Scenarios; Social-ecological systems; South Africa; Uncertainties.
Ano: 2013
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Sea state conditions for marine structures' analysis and model tests ArchiMer
Bitner-gregersen, Elzbieta M.; Dong, Sheng; Fu, Thomas; Ma, Ning; Maisondieu, Christophe; Miyake, Ryuji; Rychlik, Igor.
The study reviews, based on the state-of-the-art findings, some uncertainties associated with wave data and models currently used in design and operation procedures of ship and offshore structures. Although the same basic principles prevail for hydrodynamic loads on ships and offshore structures, actual problems and methods for assessing these loads in the design and operation stage are not the same. Different wave data and models are used for specifying design and operational criteria for these two types of platforms and different uncertainties are related to them. Wave data and models used to define sea state characteristics are discussed and particular attention is given to the associated sources of uncertainties. Some weaknesses of wave input used in...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Uncertainties; Wave data and models; Design and operations of marine structures.
Ano: 2016 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00324/43514/45291.pdf
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European small pelagic fish distribution under global change scenarios ArchiMer
Schickele, Alexandre; Goberville, Eric; Leroy, Boris; Beaugrand, Gregory; Hattab, Tarek; Francour, Patrice; Raybaud, Virginie.
The spectre of increasing impacts on exploited fish stocks in consequence of warmer climate conditions has become a major concern over the last decades. It is now imperative to improve the way we project the effects of future climate warming on fisheries. While estimating future climate‐induced changes in fish distribution is an important contribution to sustainable resource management, the impacts on European small pelagic fish—representing over 50% of the landings in the Mediterranean and Black Sea between 2000 and 2013—are yet largely understudied. Here, we investigated potential changes in the spatial distribution of seven of the most harvested small pelagic fish species in Europe under several climate change scenarios over the 21st century. For each...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Climate change; Ecological niche; Exclusive economic zone; Range shift; Species distribution models; Uncertainties.
Ano: 2021 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00656/76801/77966.pdf
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Élaboration d'un diagnostic robuste de mise en place d'aires marines protégées, dans un contexte d'incertitudes ArchiMer
Gasche, Loic.
The Eastern Channel is a strategic area that supports many human activities, in particular fishing, freight, aggregates extraction and tourism. Many zones have also been identified that are suitable to host windfarms. A good understanding of interactions between these activities is necessary in order to estimate, forestall and manage risks of major spatial conflicts. Besides, their potential interactions with marine populations have not yet been well established. Several Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) have been created in the Channel in the past few years, to protect key habitats or populations, or are still being discussed. It is necessary to predict to what extent these MPAs can be an asset for a sustainable exploitation of marine resources, and what...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Incertitudes; Modèle complexe; Manche; Sole; Plie; Benthos; Mesures de gestion spatialisées; Uncertainties; Complex models; English channel; Sole; Plaice; Benthos; Spatial management measures.
Ano: 2014 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00252/36304/34833.pdf
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Investigating the performances of a bayesian biomass dynamic model with informative priors on Atlantic bluefin tuna ArchiMer
Simon, M; Fromentin, Jean-marc; Bonhommeau, Sylvain; Gaertner, Daniel; Etienne, Marie-pierre.
We examined the possibility of eliciting informative priors for the parameters of a biomass production model with emphasis on the intrinsic population growth rate of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus). We reviewed the literature to propose probability distribution functions for the vital rates and used a matrix population model structured by age (Leslie) to compute the population growth rate. A generalized biomass production model is applied on two CPUE and catch datasets (1976-1996 and 1976-2006) using informative priors. The population growth rate prior has a diffuse distribution and is very sensitive to young of the year mortality rate. Thus, we compared the performances of this prior with a commonly used prior for tunas population growth rate. We...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Bayesian model; Population growth rate; Uncertainties; Natural mortality; CPUE; Tuna fisheries; Thunnus thynnus.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00192/30281/28756.pdf
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Tax-Versus-Trading and Free Emission Shares as Issues for Climate Policy Design AgEcon
Pezzey, John C.V.; Jotzo, Frank.
We give empirical welfare results for global greenhouse gas emission control, using the first multiparty model to combine tax-versus-trading under uncertainties with revenue recycling. Including multiple parties greatly reduces the welfare advantage of an emissions tax over emissions (permit) trading in handling abatement-cost uncertainties, from that shown by existing, single-party literature. But a tax has a different, much bigger advantage, from better handling uncertainties in business-as-usual emissions. Either mechanism's free emissions share, from tax thresholds or free permits, which lowers its possible welfare gain from revenue recycling, may however dominate any tax-versus-trading advantage. Moreover, political and practical constraints, such as...
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Climate policy; Emission pricing; Tax vs. trading; Uncertainties; Revenue recycling; Political economy; Environmental Economics and Policy; D810; H230; Q580.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95049
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Capturing Uncertainties in Evaluation of Biofuels Feedstocks: A Multi-Criteria Approach for the US AgEcon
Ziolkowska, Jadwiga; Simon, Leo K.; Zilberman, David.
Current research evaluating biofuels policies focuses primarily on market-economic criteria. While it is widely acknowledged that both the economic and environmental, and social aspects of biofuels policy must all be balanced with each other in the process of developing a viable biofuels policy, little progress has been made to date on evaluating these uncertain non-market relationships. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy theory holistic approach evaluating the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd generation biofuels feedstocks in meeting multiple economic, environmental and social criteria of the biofuels policies and capturing the uncertainties of evaluation processes. We use a multi-criteria approach PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Uncertainties; Multi-criteria decision support; PROMETHE; Fuzzy set theory; Decision making; Policy evaluation; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115980
Registros recuperados: 7
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