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| Registros recuperados: 221 | |
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| Cobián Romero, Lizbeth. |
| Una empresa innovadora que inicia en el mercado es conocida en la literatura como Start-Up; esté tipo de firmas al ser evaluadas con los métodos tradicionales (tasa interna de retorno, TIR; valor actual neto, VAN y relación benéfico-costo, B/C) son generalmente rechazadas debido a que no cuentan con información económico-financiera suficiente. El objetivo de éste trabajo fue determinar si la incorporación de las metodologías Opciones Reales y Valores Críticos a la evaluación tradicional agregan valor a empresas Start-Up. El caso que se trató fue el de una planta de bioplásticos. Para calcular la opción de compra al aumentar la producción se utilizó el método de Black-Scholes, que consiste en una ecuación y cinco variables. Para calcular el beneficio... |
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Palavras-chave: Black-Scholes; Evaluación de proyectos; Bioplástico; Riesgo; Incertidumbre; Project evaluation; Bioplastic; Risk; Uncertainty; Maestría; Economía. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/688 |
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| Nelitz, Marc A; ESSA Technologies Ltd.; mnelitz@essa.com; Beardmore, Ben; Beardmore Consulting LLC; Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources; Alan.Beardmore@wisconsin.gov; Machtans, Craig S; Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment Canada; Craig.Machtans@ec.gc.ca; Hall, Alexander W; ESSA Technologies Ltd.; ahall@essa.com; Wedeles, Chris; ArborVitae Environmental Services Ltd.; chris@avesltd.ca. |
| Complexity and uncertainty are inherent in social-ecological systems. Although they can create challenges for scientists and decision makers, they cannot be a reason for delaying decision making. Two strategies have matured in recent decades to address these challenges. Systems thinking, as embodied by conceptual modeling, is a holistic approach in which a system can be better understood by examining it as a whole. Expert elicitation represents a second strategy that enables a greater diversity of inputs to understand complex systems. We explored the use of conceptual models and expert judgments to inform expansion of monitoring around oil sands development in northern Alberta, Canada, particularly related to migratory forest birds. This study area is a... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Complexity; Conceptual modeling; Expert judgment; Migratory birds; Oil sands; Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2015 |
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| Dewulf, Art; Public Administration and Policy Group, Wageningen University; art.dewulf@psy.kuleuven.be; Taillieu, Tharsi; Center for Work, Organizational and Personnel Psychology, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven; tharsi.taillieu@psy.kuleuven.be. |
| Uncertainty of late has become an increasingly important and controversial topic in water resource management, and natural resources management in general. Diverse managing goals, changing environmental conditions, conflicting interests, and lack of predictability are some of the characteristics that decision makers have to face. This has resulted in the application and development of strategies such as adaptive management, which proposes flexibility and capability to adapt to unknown conditions as a way of dealing with uncertainties. However, this shift in ideas about managing has not always been accompanied by a general shift in the way uncertainties are understood and handled. To improve this situation, we believe it is necessary to recontextualize... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Ambiguity; Frames; Framing; Knowledge relationship; Multiple knowledge frames; Natural resource management; Negotiation; Participation; Social learning; Uncertainty; Water management. |
| Ano: 2008 |
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| Loftin, M. Kent; SynInt Inc.; CAMNet; kloftin@synint.com. |
| Managing large-scale water resources and ecosystem projects is a never ending job, and success should be measured in terms of achieving desired project performance and not just meeting prescriptive requirements of planning and constructing a project simply on time and within budget. Success is more than studying, planning, designing, or operating projects. It is developing the right plan, getting it implemented, and seeing that it is operated and performs properly. Success requires all of these, and failing any of these results in wasted resources and potential for doing great harm. Adaptive management can help make success possible by providing a means for solving the most complex problems, answering unanswered questions, and, in general, reducing... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis |
Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Ecosystem restoration; Governance; Implementation; Integrating risk and uncertainty; Performance; Project management; Resolutional sufficiency; Resolving uncertainties; Risk management; Stakeholders; Success; Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2014 |
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| Johnson, Fred; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; fred_a_johnson@fws.gov; Williams, Ken; ; byron_ken_williams@nbs.gov. |
| Waterfowl harvest management in North America, for all its success, historically has had several shortcomings, including a lack of well-defined objectives, a failure to account for uncertain management outcomes, and inefficient use of harvest regulations to understand the effects of management. To address these and other concerns, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service began implementation of adaptive harvest management in 1995. Harvest policies are now developed using a Markov decision process in which there is an explicit accounting for uncontrolled environmental variation, partial controllability of harvest, and structural uncertainty in waterfowl population dynamics. Current policies are passively adaptive, in the sense that any reduction in structural... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Harvest; Hunting regulations; Markov decision process; Migratory birds; Optimization; Uncertainty; Waterfowl.. |
| Ano: 1999 |
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| Bijlsma, Rianne M.; University of Twente, The Netherlands; Deltares, The Netherlands; r.m.bijlsma@alumnus.utwente.nl; Bots, Pieter W. G.; Cemagref (UMR G-EAU); University of Delft, The Netherlands; p.w.g.bots@tudelft.nl; Wolters, Henk A.; Deltares, The Netherlands; henk.wolters@deltares.nl; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; University of Twente, The Netherlands; a.y.hoekstra@utwente.nl. |
| Stakeholder participation is advocated widely, but there is little structured, empirical research into its influence on policy development. We aim to further the insight into the characteristics of participatory policy development by comparing it to expert-based policy development for the same case. We describe the process of problem framing and analysis, as well as the knowledge base used. We apply an uncertainty perspective to reveal differences between the approaches and speculate about possible explanations. We view policy development as a continuous handling of substantive uncertainty and process uncertainty, and investigate how the methods of handling uncertainty of actors influence the policy development. Our findings suggest that the wider frame... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Environmental policy; Framing; Participation; Policy development; Policy process; Stakeholder involvement; Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2011 |
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| Biber, Eric; University of California, Berkeley; ebiber@law.berkeley.edu. |
| The monitoring of ambient environmental conditions is essential to environmental management and regulation. However, effective monitoring is subject to a range of institutional, political, and legal constraints, constraints that are a product of the need for monitoring to be continuous, long lived, and well matched to the resources being studied. Political pressure or myopia, conflicting agency goals, the need for institutional autonomy, or a reluctance of agency scientists to pursue monitoring all may make it difficult for ambient monitoring to be effectively undertaken. Even if effective monitoring data is gathered, it may not be used in decision making. The inevitable residual uncertainty in monitoring data allows stakeholders to contest the use of... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis |
Palavras-chave: Environmental law; Monitoring; Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2013 |
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| Conroy, Michael J; USGS Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit; conroy@forestry.uga.edu; Allen, Craig; University of Nebraska; allencr@unl.edu; Peterson, James T; USGS Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit;; Pritchard, Lowell, Jr.; Emory University; lpritc2@emory.edu; Moore, Clinton T; ;. |
| The southern Piedmont of the southeastern United States epitomizes the complex and seemingly intractable problems and hard decisions that result from uncontrolled urban and suburban sprawl. Here we consider three recurrent themes in complicated problems involving complex systems: (1) scale dependencies and cross-scale, often nonlinear relationships; (2) resilience, in particular the potential for complex systems to move to alternate stable states with decreased ecological and/or economic value; and (3) uncertainty in the ability to understand and predict outcomes, perhaps particularly those that occur as a result of human impacts. We consider these issues in the context of landscape-level decision making, using as an example water resources and lotic... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Piedmont; Adaptive management; Land use; Model; Resilience; Scale; Sprawl; Uncertainty; Urbanization; Water resources. |
| Ano: 2003 |
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| Enfors, Elin I; Natural Resources Management, Department of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University, Sweden; elin@ecology.su.se; Gordon, Line J; Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University, Sweden; Natural Resources Management, Department of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University, Sweden; line@stockholmresilience.su.se; Peterson, Garry D; Department of Geography and McGill School of Environment, McGill University, Canada; Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University, Sweden; garry.peterson@mcgill.ca; Bossio, Deborah; International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Sri Lanka; d.bossio@iwmi.cgiar.org. |
| The agro-ecosystems of semi-arid and dry sub-humid SSA are inherently dynamic. At this point in time they are also experiencing a series of complex social–ecological changes that make their future even more uncertain. To ensure that development investments made today in the small-scale farming systems that dominate these regions make sense also in a long-term perspective they should benefit the local communities over a range of potential futures. We applied a participatory scenario planning approach to a smallholder farming community in semi-arid Tanzania, exploring four alternative development trajectories for the area, to increase the robustness of current investments in small-scale water system technologies. We found that water system... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Dryland regions; Future; Investments; Participatory scenario planning; Small-scale farming; Sub-Saharan Africa; Uncertainty; Water system technologies. |
| Ano: 2008 |
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| Registros recuperados: 221 | |
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