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| Registros recuperados: 21 | |
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| Failing, Lee; Compass Resource Management; lfailing@compassrm.com; Horn, Graham; ; ghorn@planit.bc.ca; Higgins, Paul; ; paul.Higgins@bchydro.bc.ca. |
| This paper provides an example of a practical integration of probabilistic policy analysis and multi-stakeholder decision methods at a hydroelectric facility in British Columbia, Canada. A structured decision-making framework utilizing the probabilistic judgments of experts, a decision tree, and a Monte Carlo simulation provided insight to a decision to implement an experimental flow release program. The technical evaluation of the expected costs and benefits of the program were integrated into the multi-stakeholder decision process. The framework assessed the magnitude of the uncertainty, its potential to affect water management decisions, the predictive ability of the experiment, the value of the expected costs and benefits, and the preferences of... |
| Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Decision analysis; Expert judgment; Hydroelectricity; Multi-attribute evaluation; Multi-stakeholder consultation; Risk management; Value of information. |
| Ano: 2004 |
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| Lambert, David K.; DeVuyst, Eric A.; Moss, Charles B.. |
| Scientific inquiry is increasing our knowledge of plant and animal genomics. The ability to specify heterogeneous production processes, to sort agricultural inputs by genotype, or to guide breeding programs to satisfy specific markets based on genetic expression may potentially increase producer and consumer benefits. This research develops a decision analysis framework to assess the expected value of genetic information. Expected returns are evaluated both in the presence of, and without, genetic trait information. Potential gains in the value of information can be quantified as research unravels the linkages between genetics and crop and animal performance and quality. An application to cattle feeding indicates potential gains to developing markets... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Value of information; Genetics; Livestock; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23609 |
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| MacAuley, Molly K.. |
| This study, prepared at the request of the Office of Earth Science at the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), describes a general framework for conceptualizing the value of information and illustrates how the framework might be used to value information from earth science data collected from space. The framework serves two purposes. One purpose is provision of a common basis by which to conduct and evaluate studies of the value of earth science information that serves a variety of uses, from improving environmental quality to protecting public health and safety. The second purpose is to better inform decision-makers about the value of data and information. Decision-makers comprise three communities: consumers and producers of... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Value of information; Earth science; Natural resource economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; O32; O38; Q28. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10839 |
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| Dorfman, Jeffrey H.; McIntosh, Christopher S.. |
| Forecasts of economic time series are often evaluated according to their accuracy as measured by either quantitative precision or qualitative reliability. We argue that consumers purchase forecasts for the potential utility gains from utilizing them, not for their accuracy. Using Monte Carlo techniques to incorporate the temporal heteroskedasticity inherent in asset returns, the expected utility of a set of qualitative forecasts is simulated for corn and soybean futures prices. Monetary values for forecasts of various reliability levels are derived. The method goes beyond statistical forecast evaluation, allowing individuals to incorporate their own utility function and trading system into valuing a set of asset price forecasts. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Commodity prices; Forecast evaluation; Value of information; Consumer/Household Economics. |
| Ano: 1997 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15060 |
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| Alfnes, Frode. |
| Vickrey auctions are commonly used to elicit willingness to pay for new food products. This paper shows that in a multi-period context, it can be optimal to bid higher than the expected consumption value for new experience goods to obtain information about the quality of the goods. The degree of value uncertainty, the purchasing frequency, and expected future market prices affect both the expected value of the quality information and the weakly dominant bidding strategy in Vickrey auctions for new experience goods. Keywords: experience goods, value of information, Vickrey auctions. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Experience goods; Value of information; Vickrey auctions.; Consumer/Household Economics. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21211 |
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| Roberts, Michael J.; Schimmelpfennig, David E.; Ashley, Elizabeth; Livingston, Michael J.; Ash, Mark S.; Vasavada, Utpal. |
| Early-warning systems for plant diseases are valuable when the systems provide timely forecasts that farmers can use to inform their pest management decisions. To evaluate the value of the systems, this study examines, as a case study, USDA’s coordinated framework for soybean rust surveillance, reporting, prediction, and management, which was developed before the 2005 growing season. The framework’s linchpin is a website that provides real-time, county-level information on the spread of the disease. The study assesses the value of the information tool to farmers and factors that influence that value. The information’s value depends most heavily on farmers’ perceptions of the forecast’s accuracy. The study finds that the framework’s information is valuable... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Soybean rust; Farmers’ perceptions; Forecast accuracy; Updating beliefs; Value of information; Real-time disease location; Plant disease management; Pest management; Risk management; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7208 |
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| Lusk, Jayson L.. |
| Recent research has identified genetic diversity in the ability of animals to manufacture and recognize leptin, a protein that regulated appetite and weight. This paper determines the economic value of using information on leptin genotype to select and manage beef cattle. Results reveal that the economic value of using genotypic information to sort cattle by optimal endpoint is only about $2/head for steers and $1/head for heifers; however, the value of using genotypic information to optimally select and feed only certain genotypes is $23/head for steers and $28/head for heifers. The difference in per head profit between the best and worst performing genotype is over $28 on the date the cattle were actually marketed and increases to $60 if each genotype is... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Cattle marketing; Days on feed; Genetics; Growth models; Leptin; Value of information; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8641 |
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| Rousu, Matthew C.; Shogren, Jason F.. |
| Scientists and advocates can disagree on the value of new products or technologies, such as growth hormones, genetically modified organisms, and food irradiation. Both sides of the debate disseminate information to the public hoping to influence public opinion. This study assesses the economic value of both pro and anti public information using food irradiation as a case study. The value of information sources is estimated in isolation and in combination. In isolation, the results indicate each set of information has value. In combination, only the anti-irradiation information is found to have net positive value (persuading some consumers to purchase non-irradiated products). Pro-irradiation information worked to decrease the value of anti-irradiation... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Experimental auctions; Irradiation; Value of information; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8623 |
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| Registros recuperados: 21 | |
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