Data/hora: 10/06/2024 05:43:10

Provedor de dados: | Acta Scientiarum: Agronomy
País: | Brazil

Título:

Agrometeorological models for groundnut crop yield forecasting in the Jaboticabal, São Paulo State region, Brazil

Agrometeorological models for groundnut crop yield forecasting in the Jaboticabal, São Paulo State region, Brazil

Autores: | Moreto, Victor Brunini; Rolim, Glauco de Souza.
Data: | 2015-10-01
Ano: | 2015
Palavras-chave: | Agrometeorologia 5.01.05.00-0 crop model; Water balance; Prediction; Production. agrometeorologia.
Resumo: | Forecast is the act of estimating a future event based on current data. Ten-day period (TDP) meteorological data were used for modeling: mean air temperature, precipitation and water balance components (water deficit (DEF) and surplus (EXC) and soil water storage (SWS)). Meteorological and yield data from 1990-2004 were used for calibration, and 2005-2010 were used for testing. First step was the selection of variables via correlation analysis to determine which TDP and climatic variables have more influence on the crop yield. The selected variables were used to construct models by multiple linear regression, using a stepwise backwards process. Among all analyzed models, the following was notable: Yield = - 4.964 x [SWS of 2° TDP of December of the previous year (OPY)] – 1.123 x [SWS of 2° TDP of November OPY] + 0.949 x [EXC of 1° TDP of February of the productive year (PY)] + 2.5 x [SWS of 2° TDP of February OPY] + 19.125 x [EXC of 1° TDP of May OPY] – 3.113 x [EXC of 3° TDP of January OPY] + 1.469 x [EXC of 3 TDP of January of PY] + 3920.526, with MAPE = 5.22%, R2 = 0.58 and RMSEs = 111.03 kg ha-1.
Tipo: | Info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Idioma: | Inglês

Identificador:

http://periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/ActaSciAgron/article/view/19766

10.4025/actasciagron.v37i4.19766

Editor: | Universidade Estadual de Maringá
Relação: | http://periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/ActaSciAgron/article/view/19766/pdf_91
Formato: | application/pdf

Fonte:

Acta Scientiarum. Agronomy; v. 37, n. 4 (2015); 403-410

Acta Scientiarum. Agronomy; v. 37, n. 4 (2015); 403-410

1807-8621

1679-9275