Data/hora: 04/06/2024 03:41:58

Provedor de dados: | 123
País: | Brazil
Título: | Estimation of the agricultural probability of loss: evidence for soybean in Paraná state
Autores: | Ozaki,Vitor Augusto; Olinda,Ricardo; Faria,Priscila Neves; Campos,Rogério Costa.
Data: | 2014-03-01
Ano: | 2014
Palavras-chave: | Risk; Extreme value theory; Probability of loss; Crop insurance.
Resumo: | In any agricultural insurance program, the accurate quantification of the probability of the loss has great importance. In order to estimate this quantity, it is necessary to assume some parametric probability distribution. The objective of this work is to estimate the probability of loss using the theory of the extreme values modeling the left tail of the distribution. After that, the estimated values will be compared to the values estimated under the normality assumption. Finally, we discuss the implications of assuming a symmetrical distribution instead of a more flexible family of distributions when estimating the probability of loss and pricing the insurance contracts. Results show that, for the selected regions, the probability distributions present a relative degree of skewness. As a consequence, the probability of loss is quite different from those estimated supposing the Normal distribution, commonly used by Brazilian insurers.
Tipo: | Info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Idioma: | Inglês
Identificador: | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-20032014000100002
Editor: | Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural
Relação: | 10.1590/S0103-20032014000100002
Formato: | text/html
Fonte: | Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural  v.52 n.1 2014
Fonte: | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess