Data/hora: 09/06/2024 16:56:56

Provedor de dados: 	31	
País: 	United States	
Título: 	ECONOMIC CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS	
Autores: 	Dorfman,   Jeffrey H.; McIntosh,   Christopher S.	
Data: 	2003-01-30	
Ano: 	1997	
Palavras-chave: 	Commodity prices; Forecast evaluation; Value of information; Consumer/Household Economics.	
Resumo: 	Forecasts of economic time series are often evaluated according to their accuracy as measured by either quantitative precision or qualitative reliability.  We argue that consumers purchase forecasts for the potential utility gains from utilizing them, not for their accuracy.  Using Monte Carlo techniques to incorporate the temporal heteroskedasticity inherent in asset returns, the expected utility of a set of qualitative forecasts is simulated for corn and soybean futures prices.  Monetary values for forecasts of various reliability levels are derived.  The method goes beyond statistical forecast evaluation, allowing individuals to incorporate their own utility function and trading system into valuing a set of asset price forecasts.	
Tipo: 	Journal Article	
Idioma: 	Inglês	
Identificador: 	6946

http://purl.umn.edu/15060	
Editor: 	AgEcon Search	
Relação: 	Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics&gt;Volume 29, Number 02, December 1997	
Formato: 	9

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