Data/hora: 09/06/2024 11:07:43

Provedor de dados: | 31
País: | United States
Título: | Ambiguous Aggregation of Expert Opinions: The Case of Optimal R&amp;D Investment
Autores: | Athanassoglou,   Stergios; Bosetti,   Valentina; Maere d'Aertrycke,   Gauthier de.
Data: | 2012-03-14
Ano: | 2012
Palavras-chave: | Ambiguity; Expert Opinions; R&amp;D; Convex/Conic Optimization; Aggregation; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; C61; D81; Q42.
Resumo: | How should a decision-maker allocate R&amp;D funds when a group of experts provides divergent estimates on a technology's potential effectiveness? To address this question, we propose a simple decision-theoretic framework that takes into account ambiguity over the aggregation of expert opinion and a decision-maker's attitude towards it. In line with the paper's focus on R&amp;D investment, decision variables in our model may affect experts' subjective probability distributions of the future potential of a technology. Using results from convex optimization, we are able to establish a number of analytical results including a closed-form expression of our model's value function, as well as a thorough investigation of its differentiability properties. We apply our framework to original data from a recent expert elicitation survey on solar technology. The analysis suggests that more aggressive investment in solar technology R&amp;D is likely to yield significant dividends even, or rather especially, after taking ambiguous aggregation into account.
Tipo: | Working Paper
Idioma: | Inglês
Identificador: | http://purl.umn.edu/121719

Relação:

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)&gt;Climate Change and Sustainable Development

CCSD

4.2012

Formato: | 45