Data/hora: 09/06/2024 08:35:52

Provedor de dados: | 31
País: | United States
Título: | Fiducial cost-benefit analysis research: with an application to weather modification
Autores: | Beare,   Stephen; Chambers,   Raymond.
Data: | 2012-05-31
Ano: | 2012
Palavras-chave: | Cost-benefit; Risk; Uncertainty; Cost-benefit; Fiducial inference; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies.
Resumo: | Environmental intervention is often seen as being high risk and high return. Traditional scientific hypothesis testing provides limited guidance to policy makers unless there is a high level of certainty in the supporting scientific evidence. Traditional cost-benefit analysis under uncertainty has shortcomings when considering high-risk investment, largely due to the choice of how to discount uncertainty outcomes. A corollary is that traditional cost-benefit analysis does not place a value on increased certainty, an important outcome of successful scientific research. A fiducial costbenefit methodology is presented in this paper, which integrates hypothesis testing and traditional cost-benefit analysis. The fiducial approach is one way of objectively placing a value on changes in the level of uncertainty that does not depend on an assumption about a decision maker's attitudes towards variability in returns. This has two important implications. First, there is a level of uncertainty at which we would reject an investment with a positive expected net rate of return on the basis that the uncertainty associated with the outcome is too great. Second, it is possible to value a program of research that reduces the uncertainty about a critical decision parameter. An example based on data from a weather modification experiment conducted in South Australia is presented. The approach is the generalised using more traditional statistical methodology.
Tipo: | Presentation
Idioma: | Inglês
Identificador: | http://purl.umn.edu/124232
Relação: | Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society&gt;2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Freemantle, Australia
Formato: | 20