Data/hora: 01/06/2024 10:16:00

Provedor de dados: | Research in Agricultural & Applied Economics (AgEcon Searh)
País: | United States
Título: | ARE REVISIONS TO USDA CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS SMOOTHED?
Autores: | Isengildina,   Olga; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.
Data: | 2004-11-22
Ano: | 2004
Palavras-chave: | Crop Production/Industries.
Resumo: | This study investigates the nature of the revision process of USDA corn and soybean production forecasts over the 1970/71 through 2002/03 marketing years. Nordhaus' framework for testing the efficiency of fixed-event forecasts is used. In this framework, efficiency is based on independence of forecast revisions. Both parametric and non-parametric tests reject independence of consecutive forecast revisions. Positive correlation and consistency of directional changes in forecast revisions suggest that these forecasts are "smoothed." Estimates of the impact of smoothing on forecast accuracy show that correction for smoothing may result in economically meaningful improvements in accuracy.
Tipo: | Conference Paper or Presentation
Idioma: | Inglês

Identificador:

15371

http://purl.umn.edu/19027

Editor: | AgEcon Search

Relação:

NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management&gt;2004 Conference, St. Louis, MO, April 19-20, 2004

2004 Conference, St. Louis, MO, April 19-20, 2004

Formato:

26

application/pdf