Data/hora: 09/06/2024 17:30:25

Provedor de dados: | Research in Agricultural & Applied Economics (AgEcon Searh)
País: | United States
Título: | What Can we Learn from our Mistakes?  Evaluating the Benefits of Correcting Inefficiencies  in USDA Cotton Forecasts.
Autores: | Isengildina-Massa,   Olga; Tysinger,   David; Gerard,   Patrick; MacDonald,   Stephen.
Data: | 2011-01-14
Ano: | 2011
Palavras-chave: | Commodity; Forecast evaluation; Fixed-event forecasts; Government forecasting; Forecast improvement; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis; E37; E3; Q13.
Resumo: | This study investigated the magnitude of forecast improvements resulting from correction of inefficiencies in USDA cotton forecasts over 1999/00 to 2008/09 marketing years. The aspects of forecast performance included in this study were 1) bias and trends in bias, 2) correlation between forecast error and forecast level, 3) autocorrelation in forecast errors, 4) correlation in forecast revisions.  Overall the results of this study demonstrated that some corrections of forecast inefficiencies, such as correction of correlation of error with forecast levels and correlation of error with previous year’s error resulted in consistent improvement of USDA cotton forecasts, while correction for correlation in forecast revisions did not benefit the forecasts. Correction for bias yielded mixed results likely because USDA has already been applying those corrections to some of the categories and thus our analysis resulted in over-correcting.  The framework developed in this study can be used by USDA and other agencies to monitor and improve the performance of their forecasts.
Tipo: | Conference Paper or Presentation
Idioma: | Inglês
Identificador: | http://purl.umn.edu/98811

Relação:

Southern Agricultural Economics Association&gt;2011 Annual Meeting, February 5-8, 2011, Corpus Christi, Texas

Selected Paper

Formato: | 21