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Provedor de dados:  AgEcon
País:  United States
Título:  Ethanol Plant Investment using Net Present Value and Real Options Analyses
Autores:  Schmit, Todd M.
Luo, Jianchuan
Tauer, Loren W.
Data:  2008-08-13
Ano:  2008
Palavras-chave:  Ethanol
Net Present Value
Real Options Analyses
Environmental Economics and Policy
Financial Economics
Production Economics
Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
Resumo:  A real option analysis of dry-grind corn ethanol plants compared to a standard net present value analysis (NPV) shows that the option values increase entry prices and lower exit prices of investment and disinvestment considerably. For a large plant, the gross margin of ethanol price over the corn price for a gallon of ethanol using NPV shows that entry will occur with a $0.45 margin and shutdown will occur at a $0.38. Under a real options framework, the margins for entry and exit become $1.33 and $0.13, respectively. Under baseline conditions, a large operating plant would become mothballed at $0.18 and reactivate if margins rebounded to $0.66. Growth in the variability of ethanol margins will delay new plant investments, as well as exits of currently operating facilities.
Tipo:  Working or Discussion Paper
Idioma:  Inglês
Relação:  Cornell University>Department of Applied Economics and Management>Working Papers
Working Paper
WP 2008-14
Formato:  35

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