Sabiia Seb
PortuguêsEspañolEnglish
Embrapa
        Busca avançada

Botão Atualizar


Botão Atualizar

Registro completo
Provedor de dados:  AgEcon
País:  United States
Título:  The influence of climate change, technological progress and political change on agricultural land use: calculated scenarios for the Upper Danube catchment area
Einfluss von Klimawandel, technischem Fortschritt und politischen Änderungen auf die landwirtschaftliche Landnutzung: Szenarienberechnungen für das Flusseinzugsgebiet der Oberen Donau
Autores:  Henseler, Martin
Wirsig, Alexander
Krimly, Tatjana
Dabbert, Stephan
Data:  2010-12-08
Ano:  2008
Palavras-chave:  Global change
Regional model
Climate change
Agricultural policy scenarios
Agricultural land use
Agricultural and Food Policy
Environmental Economics and Policy
Land Economics/Use
Resumo:  Both climate and agricultural policy changes are commonly seen as important drivers for agricultural production. In this study, scenarios of climate and political change were calculated for the Upper Danube catchment area using the regional optimization model ACRE. Two political scenarios were calculated for the year 2020. One scenario assumes the continuation of the Common Agricultural Policy reform 2003 the other assumes a strong shift away from payments of the first pillar to payments of the second pillar of the CAP. Both scenarios were combined with four different scenarios of climate change and technological progress derived from ICCP SRES assumptions and the ACCELERATES project. The results of the scenario calculations were analysed with respect to their implications for the whole catchment area as well as for selected districts. Climate change and technological progress both cause small changes in agricultural land use: fodder crop area tends to be converted to cash crop area, and intensive grasslands tend to be converted into extensive grasslands. Climate change and technological progress increase crop productivity, and consequently, total gross margin increases. The impact of climate change might get stronger toward the end of the century which is beyond the scope of the investigations presented here. The impact of climate change might thus switch from bringing net benefits in the short to medium term to bringing net losses for the area investigated in the long run.
Tipo:  Journal Article
Idioma:  Inglês
Identificador:  ISSN 0002-1121

http://purl.umn.edu/97594
Relação:  German Journal of Agricultural Economics> Volume 57, Issue 3/4, 2008
Formato:  13
Fechar
 

Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária - Embrapa
Todos os direitos reservados, conforme Lei n° 9.610
Política de Privacidade
Área restrita

Embrapa
Parque Estação Biológica - PqEB s/n°
Brasília, DF - Brasil - CEP 70770-901
Fone: (61) 3448-4433 - Fax: (61) 3448-4890 / 3448-4891 SAC: https://www.embrapa.br/fale-conosco

Valid HTML 4.01 Transitional