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Provedor de dados:  ArchiMer
País:  France
Título:  Projected Effects of Climate-Induced Changes in Hydrodynamics on the Biogeochemistry of the Mediterranean Sea Under the RCP 8.5 Regional Climate Scenario
Autores:  Pagès, Rémi
Baklouti, Melika
Barrier, Nicolas
Ayache, Mohamed
Sevault, Florence
Somot, Samuel
Moutin, Thierry
Data:  2020-11
Ano:  2020
Palavras-chave:  Mediterranean Sea
Coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model
RCP scenario
Biogeochemistry
Climate change
Resumo:  The Mediterranean region has been shown to be particularly exposed to climate change, with observed trends that are more pronounced than the global tendency. In forecast studies based on a RCP 8.5 scenario, there seems to be a consensus that, along with an increase in temperature and salinity over the next century, a reduction in the intensity of deep-water formation and a shallowing of the mixed layer [especially in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea (MS)] are expected. By contrast, only a few studies have investigated the effects of climate change on the biogeochemistry of the MS using a 3D physical/biogeochemical model. In this study, our aim was to explore the impact of the variations in hydrodynamic forcing induced by climate change on the biogeochemistry of the MS over the next century. For this purpose, high-resolution simulations under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario have been run using the regional climate system model CNRM-RCSM4 including the NEMO-MED8 marine component, coupled (off-line) with the biogeochemical model Eco3M-Med. The results of this scenario first highlight that most of the changes in the biogeochemistry of the MS will occur (under the RCP 8.5 scenario) after 2050. They suggest that the MS will become increasingly oligotrophic, and therefore less and less productive (14% decrease in integrated primary production in the Western Basin and in the Eastern Basin). Significant changes would also occur in the planktonic food web, with a reduction (22% in the Western Basin and 38% in the Eastern Basin) of large phytoplankton species abundance in favor of small organisms. Organisms will also be more and more N-limited in the future since NO3 concentrations are expected to decline more than those of PO4 in the surface layer. All these changes would mainly concern the Western Basin, while the Eastern Basin would be less impacted.
Tipo:  Text
Idioma:  Inglês
Identificador:  https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00659/77073/78385.pdf

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DOI:10.3389/fmars.2020.563615

https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00659/77073/
Editor:  Frontiers Media SA
Formato:  application/pdf
Fonte:  Frontiers In Marine Science (2296-7745) (Frontiers Media SA), 2020-11 , Vol. 7 , P. 563615 (17p.)
Direitos:  info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess

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