Consulta: subjectFacets:"Bayesian belief networks"
Registros recuperados: 6
Data/hora: 09/06/2024 15:52:16

Modeling Land-Use Decision Behavior with Bayesian Belief Networks
Provedor de dados: 7
Autores: Aalders, Inge; Macaulay Institute; j.morrice@macaulay.ac.uk.
The ability to incorporate and manage the different drivers of land-use change in a modeling process is one of the key challenges because they are complex and are both quantitative and qualitative in nature. This paper uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to incorporate characteristics of land managers in the modeling process and to enhance our understanding of land-use change based on the limited and disparate sources of information. One of the two models based on spatial data represented land managers in the form of a quantitative variable, the area of individual holdings, whereas the other model included qualitative data from a survey of land managers.    Random samples from the spatial data provided evidence of the relationship between the different...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports
Palavras-chave: Bayesian belief networks; Land cover; Land use.
Ano: 2008

Adapting Science to Adaptive Managers: Spidergrams, Belief Models, and Multi-agent Systems Modeling
Provedor de dados: 7
Autores: Lynam, Timothy; Tropical Resource Ecology Program, University of Zimbabwe; tlynam@science.uz.ac.zw; Bousquet, Francois; CIRAD Tera; bousquet@cirad.fr; Le Page, Christophe; CIRAD Tera; lepage@cirad.fr; d'Aquino, P.; CIRAD Tera; daquino@telecomplus.sn; Barreteau, Olivier; Cemagref Division Irrigation; barreteau@montpellier.cemagref.fr; Chinembiri, Frank C; Agritex;; Mombeshora, Bright; ;.
Two case studies are presented in which models were used as focal tools in problems associated with common-pool resource management in developing countries. In the first case study, based in Zimbabwe, Bayesian or Belief Networks were used in a project designed to enhance the adaptive management capacity of a community in a semiarid rangeland system. In the second case study, based in Senegal, multi-agent systems models were used in the context of role plays to communicate research findings to a community, as well as to explore policies for improved management of rangelands and arable lands over which herders and farmers were in conflict.  The paper provides examples of the use of computer-based modeling with stakeholders who had limited experience with...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports
Palavras-chave: Adaptive management; Bayesian belief networks; Developing country; Dynamic modeling; Multi-agent systems; Participatory modeling; Semiarid rangeland; Senegal; Spidergrams; Zimbabwe.
Ano: 2002

Characterizing Species at Risk II:  Using Bayesian Belief Networks as Decision Support Tools to Determine Species Conservation Categories Under the Northwest Forest Plan
Provedor de dados: 7
Autores: Marcot, Bruce G; USDA Forest Service; bmarcot@fs.fed.us; Hohenlohe, Paul A; Oregon State University; hohenlop@science.oregonstate.edu; Morey, Steve; USDI Fish and Wildlife Service; steven_morey@fws.gov; Holmes, Russ; USDA Forest Service; russellholmes@fs.fed.us; Molina, Randy; USDA Forest Service; rmolina@fs.fed.us; Turley, Marianne C; USDI Bureau of Land Management; mturley@fs.fed.us; Huff, Mark H; USDI Fish and Wildlife Service; Mark_Huff@fws.gov; Laurence, John A; USDA Forest Service; jalaurence@fs.fed.us.
We developed a set of decision-aiding models as Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) that represented a complex set of evaluation guidelines used to determine the appropriate conservation of hundreds of potentially rare species on federally-administered lands in the Pacific Northwest United States. The models were used in a structured assessment and paneling procedure as part of an adaptive management process that evaluated new scientific information under the Northwest Forest Plan. The models were not prescriptive but helped resource managers and specialists to evaluate complicated and at times conflicting conservation guidelines and to reduce bias and uncertainty in evaluating the scientific data. We concluded that applying the BBN modeling framework to...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports
Palavras-chave: Bayesian belief networks; Decision models; Expert panels; Risk analysis; Northwest Forest Plan; Species conservation.
Ano: 2006

Characterizing Species at Risk I:  Modeling Rare Species Under the Northwest Forest Plan
Provedor de dados: 7
Autores: Marcot, Bruce G; USDA Forest Service; bmarcot@fs.fed.us.
The Northwest Forest Plan in the Pacific Northwest, United States includes directives for survey and site protection of hundreds of rare species across many taxonomic classes. To help direct survey activities, prioritize sites, and stand conditions for conservation of these species, I developed Bayesian belief network (BBN) models of habitat relationships and multiple stressors predicting presence of 12 rare species, and I present an example of predicting presence and absence of a rare fungus. The BBN models are developed along a rigorous process of expert judgment, peer review, reconciliation, accuracy testing, and incremental updating with known site data and validation data. Management implications of prediction errors are discussed.
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports
Palavras-chave: Bayesian belief networks; Bridgeoporus nobilissimus; Model validation; Northwest Forest Plan; Rare species models; Pacific Northwest.
Ano: 2006

Baltic Herring Fisheries Management: Stakeholder Views to Frame the Problem
Provedor de dados: 7
Autores: Kuikka, Sakari; University of Helsinki, Department of Environmental Sciences, Fisheries and Environmental Management Group (FEM); sakari.kuikka@helsinki.fi.
Comprehensive problem framing that includes different perspectives is essential for holistic understanding of complex problems and as the first step in building models. We involved five stakeholders to frame the management problem of the Central Baltic herring fishery. By using the Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) approach, the views of the stakeholders were built into graphical influence diagrams representing variables and their dependencies. The views of the scientists involved concentrated on biological concerns, whereas the fisher, the manager, and the representative of an environmental nongovernmental organization included markets and fishing industry influences. Management measures were considered to have a relatively small impact on the development...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports
Palavras-chave: Bayesian belief networks; Influence diagrams; Objectives; Participatory modeling; Problem framing; Stakeholders; Structural uncertainty.
Ano: 2012

Growing into Interdisciplinarity: How to Converge Biology, Economics, and Social Science in Fisheries Research?
Provedor de dados: 7
Autores: Kulmala, Soile; Marine Research Centre, Finnish Environment Institute; MTT Agrifood Research, Finland; Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute; soile.kulmala@ymparisto.fi; Kuikka, Sakari; Fisheries and Environmental Management Group, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki; sakari.kuikka@helsinki.fi.
It has been acknowledged that natural sciences alone cannot provide an adequate basis for the management of complex environmental problems. The scientific knowledge base has to be expanded in a more holistic direction by incorporating social and economic issues. As well, the multifaceted knowledge has to be summarized in a form that can support science-based decision making. This is, however, difficult. Interdisciplinary skills, practices, and methodologies are needed that enable the integration of knowledge from conceptually different disciplines. Through a focus on our research process, we analyzed how and what kind of interdisciplinarity between natural scientists, environmental economists, and social scientists grew from the need to better understand...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports
Palavras-chave: Baltic Sea salmon fisheries; Bayesian belief networks; Bioeconomic modeling; Integrated model; Interdisciplinarity  interdisciplinary learning; Fisheries research; Methodological epoch&amp;#232; ; Multidisciplinarity.
Ano: 2012