Consulta: subjectFacets:"Causality"
Registros recuperados: 20
Data/hora: 06/06/2024 01:22:29

Toward an Integrated History to Guide the Future
Provedor de dados: 7
Autores: van der Leeuw, Sander; Arizona State University; vanderle@asu.edu; Costanza, Robert; Institute for Sustainable Solutions, Portland State University; robert.costanza@pdx.edu; Aulenbach, Steve; NEON, Inc.; saulenbach@neoninc.org; Brewer, Simon; University of Utah; simon.brewer@geog.utah.edu; Burek, Michael; National Center for Atmospheric Research; mburek@ucar.edu; Cornell, Sarah; University of Bristol; sarah.cornell@bristol.ac.uk; Crumley, Carole; University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; Stockholm Resilience Centre; crumley@unc.edu; Dearing, John A; University of Southampton; j.dearing@soton.ac.uk; Downy, Catherine; University of Bristol; cat.downy@bristol.ac.uk; Graumlich, Lisa J.; University of Washington; envdean@uw.edu; Heckbert, Scott; Institute for Sustainable Solutions, Portland State University; scott.heckbert@gmail.com; Hegmon, Michelle; Arizona State University; Michelle.Hegmon@asu.edu; Hibbard, Kathy; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; kathy.hibbard@pnl.gov; Jackson, Stephen T.; University of Wyoming; jackson@uwyo.edu; Kubiszewski, Ida; Institute for Sustainable Solutions, Portland State University; ida.kub@gmail.com; Sinclair, Paul; Uppsala University; Paul.Sinclair@arkeologi.uu.se; Steffen, Will; Australian National University; will.steffen@anu.edu.au.
Many contemporary societal challenges manifest themselves in the domain of human&amp;#8211;environment interactions. There is a growing recognition that responses to these challenges formulated within current disciplinary boundaries, in isolation from their wider contexts, cannot adequately address them. Here, we outline the need for an integrated, transdisciplinary synthesis that allows for a holistic approach, and, above all, a much longer time perspective. We outline both the need for and the fundamental characteristics of what we call &amp;#8220;integrated history.&amp;#8221; This approach promises to yield new understandings of the relationship between the past, present, and possible futures of our integrated human&amp;#8211;environment system. We...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Synthesis
Palavras-chave: Agency; Anthropocene; Backcasting; Causality; Contingency; Holistic approach; Integrated history; Long-term perspective; Resilience; Social and ecological systems.
Ano: 2011

Déterminisme du recrutement. Séminaire de Nantes, 2-4 juillet 1984
Provedor de dados: 5
Autores: Ifremer.
The causality of recruitment is of paramount importance for the progress of the control of marine living resources, but its study remains technically complax.The aim of the Nantes panel was to evaluate the state of advancement of three running programs on exploited species (sole, scallops and oysters), and to set out the basis of a wider national program of interest for both basic and targeted research.
Tipo: Text
Palavras-chave: Recrutement; Variabilité; Déterminisme; Sole; Coquille St Jacques; Huître; Recruitment; Variability; Causality; Sole; Scallop; Oyster.
Ano: 1985
URL: http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00136/24713/22766.pdf

Assessing causal links in fish stock–recruitment relationships
Provedor de dados: 5
Autores: Pierre, Maud; Rouyer, Tristan; Bonhommeau, Sylvain; Fromentin, Jean-marc.
Understanding whether recruitment fluctuations in fish stock arise from stochastic forcing (e.g. environmental variations) rather than deterministic forces (e.g. intrinsic dynamics) is a long standing question with important applied consequences for fisheries ecology. In particular, the relationship between recruitment, spawning stock biomass and environmental factors is still poorly understood, even though this aspect is crucial for fisheries management. Fisheries data are often short, but arise from complex dynamical systems with a high degree of stochastic forcing, which are difficult to capture through classic modelling approaches. In the present study, recent statistical approaches based on the approximation of the attractors of dynamical systems are...
Tipo: Text
Palavras-chave: Causality; Forecasting models; Marine.
Ano: 2018
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00408/51930/52555.pdf

TRANSMISSÃO DE PREÇOS DA SOJA ENTRE OS MERCADOS EXTERNO E INTERNO: UMA ABORDAGEM PARA A REGIÃO DE MARINGÁ.
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tonin,   Julyerme Matheus; Barczsz,   Silvio Silvestre.
Esse artigo buscou analisar a relação de preços entre o mercado interno, especificamente a região de Maringá e o mercado externo da soja no período de julho de 1994 a dezembro de 2007. A teoria que embasa o trabalho é a Lei do Preço Único. Em se tratando de preços nos mercados interno e externo, deve-se verificar se tais preços são altamente relacionados, o que significa que são bons indicadores e podem ser considerados como referências seguras na tomada de decisão dos agentes, além de observar sua causalidade e sentido. Para tanto, foram realizados os testes de estacionariedade, causalidade de Granger e de co-integração. O teste de Granger sugere que há relação bidirecional entre as séries de preço analisadas, observou-se também a existência de uma...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Transmissão de preço; Causalidade; Co-integração; Maringá; Price transmission; Causality; Co-integration; Maringá; Crop Production/Industries; Marketing.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118707

CAUSALIDADE E ELASTICIDADE NA TRANSMISSÃO DE PREÇO DO BOI GORDO ENTRE REGIÕES DO BRASIL E A BOLSA DE MERCADORIAS &amp; FUTUROS (BM&amp;F)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gaio,   Luiz Eduardo; Castro Junior,   Luiz Gonzaga de; Oliveira,   Andre Ribeiro de.
This study analyzes the transmission elasticity and the price causality of beef, between BM&amp;F and important places in Brazil, seeking data referring to the intensity of price transmission and detecting the existent relations between beef price in these places and in BM&amp;F. Studies in several regions were realized, using daily price data in a period comprehended between 2000 and 2004. The studied cities were Araçatuba (SP), Barretos (SP), Bauru (SP), Presidente Prudente (SP), Noroeste do Paraná (PR), Três Lagoas (MS), Campo Grande (MS), Triângulo Mineiro (MG), Dourados (GO), Goiânia (GO) and Cuiabá (MT). The results of the Dickey-Fuller Augmented (DFA) unit root test show that all price series are integrated of first order, I(1). The results of the...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Beef market; Causality; Price transmission elasticity.; Livestock Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43924

Advocatus, et non latro? Testing the Supplier-Induced-Demand Hypothesis for Italian Courts of Justice
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Buonanno,   Paolo; Galizzi,   Matteo M.
We explore the relationship between litigation rates and the number of lawyers, in a typical supplier-induced demand (SID) frame. Drawing on an original panel dataset for the 169 Italian courts of justice between 2000 and 2007, we first document that the number of lawyers is positively correlated with different measures of litigation rate. Then, using an instrumental variables strategy we find that a 10 percent increase of lawyers over population is associated with an increase between 1.6 to 6 percent in civil litigation rates. Thus, our empirical analysis supports the SID hypothesis for the Italian lawyers: following an increase in their relative number, lawyers may exploit their informational advantage to induce clients to access to courts even when...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Lawyers; Litigiosity; Causality; Labor and Human Capital; F22; J15; K42; R10.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90903

Agricultural and non-agricultural outputs and energy consumption in Tunisia: empirical evidences from cointegration and causality
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chebbi,   Houssem Eddine; Boujelbene,   Y.
This short paper investigates the cointegration and causality link between energy consumption and agricultural, non-agricultural outputs (manufacturing sector and services sector) and overall gross domestic product in Tunisia for 1971-2003 period. Empirical results suggest that there is only unidirectional causality running from agricultural and non-agricultural sectors to energy consumption as well as from overall GDP growth to energy consumption. This unidirectional causality signifies a less energy dependent economy and suggests that it is sectoral growth that drives the energy consumption in Tunisia and not vice versa. Empirical results suggest also that Tunisian agricultural sector growth does not depend on energy, and high consumption of energy do...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Energy consumption; Output growth; Causality; Cointegration; Tunisia; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44055

ANÁLISE DE CAUSALIDADE DE PREÇOS NO MERCADO NACIONAL E INTERNACIONAL DE CACAU
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Amin,   Mario Miguel; Seabra,   Jose Alberto.
Esta pesquisa procurou analisar o sentido de precedência (causalidade) entre os preços dos produtores de cacau do Estado do Pará, Bahia e dos preços internacionais da Bolsa de Nova Iorque, por meio do teste de causalidade de Granger. Os municípios definidos para o estudo foram Altamira, Alenquer, Cametá, Castanhal, Itaituba, Rurópolis, Santa Isabel e Tomé-Açu, no Pará, Ilhéus, na Bahia, e o mercado internacional, representado pela Bolsa de Nova Iorque. Para evitar relações espúrias, realizaram-se os testes ADF, PP, com objetivo de detectar a presença de raiz unitária, o que foi confirmado. Portanto, procedeu-se às diferenças para tornar as séries estacionárias. Os resultados obtidos mostram que existe precedência (causalidade) entre os preços dos...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Preço de cacau; Causalidade; Pará; Bahia; Bolsa de Nova Iorque; Cocoa price; Causality; Pará; Bahia; New York Exchange Market; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/109074

SEASONALITY, CAPITAL INFLEXIBILITY, AND THE INDUSTRIALIZATION OF ANIMAL PRODUCTION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Roosen,   Jutta; Hennessy,   David A.
Among the prominent recognized features of the industrialization of animal production over the past half century are growth in the stock of inflexible or use-dedicated capital as an input in production and growth in productivity. Less recognized is a trend toward aseasonal production. We record the deseasonalization of animal production in the United States and Europe over the past 70 years. We also suggest that (a) lower seasonality can precede or Granger-cause increased productivity because of increased capital intensity, and (b) productivity improvements can Granger-cause lower seasonality. Process (a) should be more likely earlier in the industrialization process. For U.S. dairy production, our empirical tests find some evidence that process (a)...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Capital intensity; Causality; Dairy; Regional production systems; Livestock Production/Industries.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18376

FED CATTLE PRICE DISCOVERY: DIRECTED ACYCLIC GRAPH AND TIME SERIES MODELING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lee,   Andrew C.; Kim,   Man-Keun.
Locating fed cattle price discovery center is revisited using the framework that combines recent progress in causal research with time series analysis.  The Bernanke factorization in innovation accounting is obtained by a graphical method called directed acyclic graph which uses data to identify the contemporaneous causal structure among the innovations.  This may represent an improvement over the conventional methods which use human judgment and/or theory to supply such information.  Results indicate that Kansas market is a dominant price leader where new information is discovered.  Contrary to the previous studies, Nebraska market does not appear to be a price discovery location.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Fed cattle; Price discovery; Directed acyclic graph; Causality; Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9989

Investigating linkages between economic growth, energy consumption and pollutant emissions in Tunisia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chebbi,   Houssem Eddine.
The aim of this study is to understand long and short-run linkages between economic growth, energy consumption and carbon emission using Tunisian data over the period 1971-2004. Cointegration procedure is used to analyze the time series properties of the series and error-correction terms were considered to test for the direction of Granger causality. Statistical findings indicate that economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emission are related in the long-run and provide some evidence of inefficient use of energy in Tunisia, since environmental pressure tends to rise faster than economic growth. The short-run analysis, provide support for causality running from CO2 emissions growth to output growth, both in the short-run and the long-run. The results...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Pollutant emissions; Economic growth; Cointegration; Causality; Tunisia; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50944

THE INFORMATIONAL ROLE OF COMMODITY PRICES IN FORMULATING MONETARY POLICY: A REEXAMINATION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Awokuse,   Titus O.; Yang,   Jian.
This paper reexamines the issue of whether commodity prices provide useful information for formulating monetary policy through the application of recent development in time series methodology developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). We found that commodity prices signals the future direction of the economy.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Commodity prices; Monetary policy; Causality; Financial Economics; E31; E37.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15834

Relationships among Prices across Alternative Marketing Arrangements for Fed Cattle and Hogs
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lee,   Yoonsuk; Ward,   Clement E.; Brorsen,   B. Wade.
Reduced reliance on cash market prices for fed cattle and hogs raise questions about the role of cash prices in price discovery. We use seven years of weekly data from mandatory price reports to determine whether or not cash market prices are cointegrated with other procurement prices and then test for causality among the price series.  Cash prices were cointegrated with all but one procurement price series.  Cash market prices Granger cause all other procurement prices.  Bidirectional causality was found in some but not all cases.  Thus, cash market prices remain of central importance in price discovery for fed cattle and hogs.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Cattle; Cointegration; Causality; Hogs; Johansen; Marketing; Prices; Stock-Watson; Vector error correction; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Q13(of Q18).
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56282

Structure of interdependencies among international stock markets and contagion patterns of 2008 global financial crisis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ahmedov,   Zafarbek; Bessler,   David A.
In this study, we apply directed acyclic graphs and search algorithm designed for time series with non-Gaussian distribution to obtain causal structure of innovations from an error correction model. The structure of interdependencies among six international stock markets is investigated. The results provide positive empirical evidence that there exist long-run equilibrium and contemporaneous causal structure among these stock markets. DAG analysis results show that Hong Kong is influenced by all other open markets in contemporaneous time, whereas Shanghai is not influenced by any of the other markets in contemporaneous time. Historical decompositions indicate that New York and Shanghai stock markets are highly exogenous and Germany and Hong Kong are the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: VAR; Cointegration; Error correction; DAG; Causality; Financial contagion; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98858

CAUSALITY BETWEEN TFP, R&amp;D AND PRICES: UNCONDITIONAL AND CONDITIONAL LINEAR FEEDBACK
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shaik,   Saleem.
This paper estimates the unconditional and conditional linear dependence between exogenous supply (R&amp;D), endogenous demand (prices) and TFP based on the linear feedback method.  Unit root tests are performed for Nebraska agriculture sector data spread over 1936-94 time period. Results indicate the influence of both R&amp;D and prices on productivity.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Linear Feedback; Causality; Productivity; R&amp;D; Prices; Productivity Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21584

Spatial Price Dynamics in U.S. Regional Broiler Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Awokuse,   Titus O.; Bernard,   John C.
The U.S. broiler industry is highly vertically integrated and increasingly concentrated in the number of firms and production areas. These structural elements could have implications for performance and the functioning of the law of one price (LOP) across regions. This article investigates this using data on four regional markets. Cointegration results indicate that regional prices are spatially linked in the long run, but pairwise cointegration was not found, suggesting that the LOP does not hold. Causality tests confirm the relative importance of price shocks from the South. This finding is reflective of price coordination by firms with production in multiple regions.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Broiler prices; Causality; Cointegration; Market integration; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Q13; D43; C22.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6324

REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION: COUNTY-LEVEL EVIDENCE FROM THE U.S. SOUTH
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ngarambe,   Octavian; Goetz,   Stephan J.; Debertin,   David L.
Changes in income distribution are estimated for the U.S. South over the 1970 and 1980 decades using Gini coefficients for county-level, real family income.  To explicitly investigate causal relationships between economic growth and inequality, a two-stage least squares model was estimated.  In the 1970s, more rapid increases in inequality were associated with a reduced income growth rate, ceteris paribus, while in the 1980s, the opposite was true.  Faster rates of income growth were associated with more rapid increases in inequality during the 1980s, but rates of income growth had no effect on changes in inequality during the 1970s.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Causality; Economic growth; Inequality; U.S. South; Community/Rural/Urban Development.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15558

SPATIAL INTEGRATION OF MAIZE MARKETS IN POST-LIBERALIZED UGANDA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rashid,   Shahidur.
Using weekly price data for two sub-periods, this paper analyzes how Ugandan maize market performed in the years following agricultural market liberalization in the early 1990’s. For each time period, the extent of integration, causality among spatial locations, and relative importance of spatial locations in price formation are examined. The extent of integration, defined as a set of markets that shares common long-run price information, and the causal relationships among markets have been tested within Johansen’s cointegration framework. The relative importance of each market locations is examined by estimating the common trend coefficients with a dynamic vector moving average model. Results indicate that, while there has been an overall improvement in...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Uganda; Market integration; Causality; Common trend; Multivariate cointegration; Crop Production/Industries; C32; P11; O38.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16135

Proving causal relationships using observational data
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bryant,   Henry L.; Bessler,   David A.
We describe a means of rejecting a null hypothesis concerning observed, but not deliberately manipulated, variables of the form H0: A -/-&gt; B in favor of an alternative hypothesis HA: A --&gt; B, even given the possibility of causally related unobserved variables. Rejection of such an H0 relies on the availability of two observed and appropriately related instrumental variables. While the researcher will have limited control over the confidence level in this test, simulation results suggest that type I errors occur with a probability of less than 0.15 (often substantially less) across a wide range of circumstances. The power of the test is limited if there are but few observations available and the strength of correspondence among the variables is weak....
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Causality; Monte Carlo; Observational data; Hypothesis testing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103238

Fertility and Female Work Force Participation in Bangladesh: Causality and Cointegration
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hossain,   Mohammad; Tisdell,   Clement A.
This paper examines the causal links between fertility and female labor force participation in Bangladesh over the period 1974-2000 by specifying a bivariate and several trivariate models in a vector error correction framework.  The three trivariate models alternatively include average age at first marriage for females, per capita GDP and infant mortality rate, which control for the effects of other socio-economic factors on fertility and female labor force participation.  All the specified models indicate an inverse long-run relationship between fertility and female labor force participation.  While the bivariate model also indicates bidirectional causality, the multivariate models confirm only a unidirectional causality – from labor force participation...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Fertility; Female Labor Force Participation; Causality; Labor and Human Capital; C32; J13; J22.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/106947