Consulta: subjectFacets:"Risk and Uncertainty"
Registros recuperados: 1,657
Data/hora: 16/06/2024 02:54:36

Consumer Risk Reactions to Food Product-Harm Crises Over Time: Evidence From Cross-Cultural Field Studies
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kalogeras,   Nikos; Pennings,   Joost M.E.; van Ittersum,   Koert.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Consumer/Household Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103769

INCORPORATING UNCERTAINTY IN THE ANALYSIS OF OPTIMAL BEEF-FORAGE PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rawlins,   Richard B.; Bernardo,   Daniel J.
A risk programming model was developed to evaluate the tradeoffs between risk and expected returns in beef-forage production systems.  The specification represents nutrient and intake considerations when allocating forage among cattle enterprises; it also incorporates the various sources of risk facing livestock producers.  Efficient ranch organizations were derived for a representative eastern Oklahoma ranch using MOTAD and Target-MOTAD formulations.  Diversification of forage enterprises, introduction of cow-calf enterprises, and retained ownership of weaned calves were identified as important responses to reductions in acceptable levels of risk.  Results also indicated efficient ranch plans to be sensitive to the risk criteria and producer's willingness...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1991
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30308

From Pasture Land to Farm Plots, Triggers and Motivations for Land Use Changes in Afar, Ethiopia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kotu,   Bekele Hundie.
Communal land use system has existed in pastoral Afar (as in many other pastoral areas) since time of immemorial accommodating the interests of different user groups. This form of land use system, which has adapted to the harsh environment in which herders raise their livestock, enables efficient utilization of scattered pastoral resources since it accommodates constant mobility of livestock. In contrast to the mobile way of life, which characterizes pastoralism, farming as a sedentary activity is only marginally present in the lowlands of the Afar region. However, the traditional land-use system in Afar is changing nowadays if favor farming because of various reasons. This paper explains such changes mainly based the data collected through a household...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Land use; Pastoralists; Farming; Drought; Afar; Ethiopia; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Security and Poverty; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty; Q15; Q24.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51276

WHOLE FARM RISK-RATING MICROCOMPUTER MODEL
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anderson,   Kim B.; Ikerd,   John E.
The Risk-Rating Model is designed to give extension specialists, teachers, and producers a method to analyze production, marketing, and financial risks.  These risks may be analyzed either individually or simultaneously.  The risk associated with each enterprise, for all combinations of enterprises, and for any combination of marketing strategies is estimated.  Optimistic, expected, and pessimistic returns above variable cost and/or total cost are presented in the results.  The probability that total return will be equal to or greater than variable cost and/or total cost is also estimated.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1985
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29372

ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION IN COTTON INSURANCE MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM TEXAS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Makki,   Shiva S.; Somwaru,   Agapi.
In recent years, the crop insurance program has emerged as an important part of the U.S. farm policy.  Farmers responded to the crop insurance program with increased participation nationwide.  At issue is whether the rapid expansion of the program has worsened the asymmetric information problems in crop insurance markets.  This paper investigates the presence of adverse selection in cotton insurance markets.  Our results reject the conditional independence of the choice of insurance contracts and risk of loss, implying the presence of informational asymmetries between the insurer and insured in Texas cotton insurance markets.  Results show that actual premium rates are significantly different from both pure and fair premium rates.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19827

Why Do Rural Firms Live Longer?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Yu,   Li; Orazem,   Peter F.; Jolly,   Robert W.
Rural firms have a higher survival rate than urban firms. Over the first 13 years after firm entry, the hazard rate for firm exits is persistently higher for urban firms. While differences in firm attributes explain some of the rural-urban gap in firm survival, rural firms retain a survival advantage 18.5% greater than observationally equivalent urban firms. We argue that in competitive markets, the remaining survival advantage for rural firms must be attributable to unobserved factors that must be known at the time of entry. A plausible candidate for such a factor is thinner markets for the capital of failed rural firms. The implied lower salvage value of rural firms suggests that firms sorting into rural markets must have a higher probability of success...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Rural; Urban; Entry; Exit; Survival; Sorting; Salvage value; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Demand and Price Analysis; Financial Economics; Industrial Organization; Labor and Human Capital; Marketing; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; O18; L21; D92.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54081

Joint Estimation of Risk Preferences and Technology: Flexible Utility of Futility?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lence,   Sergio H.
The present study sets up a thought experiment calibrated to represent risks of a high-risk production activity (farming), and investigating whether the structure of risk aversion (i.e., the changes in absolute or relative risk aversion associated with changes in wealth) can be estimated with reasonable precision.  Findings strongly suggest that typical production data are unlikely to allow identification of the structure of risk aversion.  A flexible utility parameterization is found to worsen technology parameter estimates.  Findings also indicate that even under a restricted utility specification, the quality of utility parameters estimated from small samples is very poor.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Expected utility; Risk preferences; Production analysis; Risk attitudes.; Risk and Uncertainty; C13; D24; D81; Q12.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9980

THE UTILITY OF MULTIPLE PERIL CROP INSURANCE FOR IRRIGATED, MULTIPLE-CROP AGRICULTURE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zering,   Kelly D.; McCorkle,   C.O., Jr.; Moore,   Charles V.
The usefulness of FCIC multiple peril crop insurance on diversified, irrigated, high yielding farms in the Imperial Valley is examined. Production data and expected price and yield distributions were collected from thirty-two farm managers in 1982. Individual whole-farm net income distributions then were used to elicit their risk preferences. Participation in FCIC crop insurance for cotton, wheat, and sugar beets under the existing program and under several alternatives was predicted. Predicted participation never exceeds 25% of eligible growers. Low maximum yield guarantees and premiums inconsistent with individual yield experience are identified as factors limiting participation.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1987
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32470

OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dunbar,   John O.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1953
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/17214

Production Effects of Direct Payments to Active Farmers: a Microeconomic Dynamic and Stochastic Analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Carpentier,   Alain; Gohin,   Alexandre; Heinzel,   Christoph.
For the 2014-2020 phase of the Common Agricultural Policy, the European Commission has the opportunity to reduce the leakage of public support to landowners and to better target it towards active farmers. Our purpose is to assess whether shifting the basis of direct payments from land towards active farmers will significantly alter agricultural production decisions. In a dynamic and stochastic microeconomic framework, we identify the impact of this shift on the farm household’s production and consumption decisions. In the dynamic setting the production impacts of direct payments are much higher than previously quantified, because the “long run” absolute risk aversion (associated with the value function) is lower than the “short run” one (associated with...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122447

On the Systemic Nature of Weather Risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Xu,   Wei; Filler,   Gunther; Odening,   Martin; Okhrin,   Ostap.
Systemic weather risk is a major obstacle for the formation of private (nonsubsidized) crop insurance. This paper explores the possibility of spatial diversification of insurance by estimating the joint occurrence of unfavorable weather conditions in different locations. For that purpose copula methods are employed that allow an adequate description of stochastic dependencies between multivariate random variables. The estimation procedure is applied to weather data in Germany. Our results indicate that indemnity payments based on temperature as well as on cumulative rainfall show strong stochastic dependence even at a national scale. Thus the possibility to reduce risk exposure by increasing the trading area of the insurance is limited. Irrespective of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Weather risk; Crop insurance; Copula; Risk and Uncertainty; C14; Q19.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49131

Tobit regression to estimate impact of EU market intervention in dairy sector
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wocken,   Meike; Kneib,   Thomas.
This study examines the effect of European intervention politics in the European butter market in the context of market liberalization using the example of Germany. A heteroscedastic Tobit model is estimated using German butter market data from 1973-2010. There is evidence that price support has reduced price instability in the butter market. Simulation indicates that enhancing intervention price causes an increase in the expected butter price in the long-run, even though if market price is higher than intervention level. We find changing effects of stockpiling. If difference between market and intervention price is small and stock quantity is high, it significantly contributes to reducing price volatility. On the contrary if price difference is large and...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Censored regression; Market liberalization; Butter market; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; C5; D4; Q11.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122528

Managerial reputation and the "endgame"
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Berck,   Peter; Lipow,   Jonathan.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Bayesian analysis; Equilibrium (economics); Risk management; Risk and Uncertainty; Industrial Organization.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43912

Health Benefits and Uncertainty: An Experimental Analysis of the Effects of Risk Presentation on Auction Bids for a Healthful Product
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shaw,   W. Douglass; Nayga,   Rodolfo M., Jr.; Silva,   Andres.
Experimental subjects receive a different presentation of a food product's potential health risk reductions if people habitually eat it, and then asked to bid for the product. Results suggest that the bids vary across the groups that receive differing risk information.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Health risks; Experimental economics; Auctions; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; I12.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23961

A Dynamic Adoption Model with Bayesian Learning: Application to the U.S. Soybean Market
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ma,   Xingliang; Shi,   Guanming.
Agricultural technology adoption is often a sequential process. Farmers may adopt a new technology in part of their land first and then adjust in later years based on what they learn from the earlier partial adoption. This paper presents a dynamic adoption model with Bayesian learning, in which forward-looking farmers learn from their own experience and from their neighbors about the new technology. The model is compared to that of a myopic model, in which farmers only maximize their current benefits. We apply the analysis to a sample of U.S. soybean farmers from year 2000 to 2004 to examine their adoption pattern of a newly developed genetically modified (GM) seed technology. We show that the myopic model predicts lower adoption rates in early years than...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Technology adoption; Bayesian learning; Structural estimation; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Industrial Organization; Production Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104577

Evaluating the Efficiency of Crop Index Insurance Products
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Deng,   Xiaohui; Barnett,   Barry J.; Hoogenboom,   Gerrit; Yu,   Yingzhuo; Garcia,   Axel.
Index crop insurance products can eliminate the asymmetric information problem inherent in farm-level multiple peril crop insurance. Purchasers of index insurance products are, however, exposed to basis risk. This study evaluates the efficiency of various index insurance products to reduce farm yield loss for representative corn farms in southern Georgia.  Index insurance products considered are based on county yields, cooling degree days, and predicted yields from a crop simulation model.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35333

NATIONAL RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 2003: A STAKEHOLDER-GENERATED METHODOLOGY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pinney,   Andrew.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14646

How Should We Value Agricultural Insurance Contracts
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Myers,   Robert J.; Liu,   Yanyan; Hanson,   Steven D.
We argue that existing agricultural insurance valuation models are limited either because they are not complete equilibrium models that price the non-diversifiable risk involved in issuing insurance contracts, or they assume complete markets which appears at odds with most applications of agricultural insurance. We also propose two new incomplete market models and derive an insurance valuation formula for each under the assumption of constant relative risk aversion preferences and  lognormally distributed random variables. The two models differ in the way they treat trade in insurance contracts, with one model allowing insurers and insureds to trade freely on a liquid secondary market, while the other requires insurance firms to act as brokers between...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19561

WASPA Asia: wastewater agriculture and sanitation for poverty alleviation in Asia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: International Water Management Institute (IWMI).
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Wastewater irrigation; Health hazards; Poverty; Sanitation; Development projects; Asia; Kolkata; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91467

Phase Space Reconstruction from Economic Time Series Data: Improving Models of Complex Real-World Dynamic Systems
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Huffaker,   Ray G.
Failure of economic models to anticipate the global financial crisis illustrates the need for modeling to better capture complex real-world dynamics. Conventional models—in which economic variables evolve toward equilibria or fluctuate about equilibria in response to exogenous random shocks—are ill-equipped to portray complex real-world dynamics in which economic variables may cycle aperiodically along low-dimensional ‘strange attractors’. We present a method developed in the physics literature—‘phase space reconstruction’—that reconstructs strange attractors present in real-world dynamical systems using time series data on a single variable. Phase space reconstruction provides pictures of real-world dynamics that can guide model specification
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Phase space reconstruction; Time series data; Economic dynamics; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97021

ANÁLISE COMPARATIVA ENTRE ESTRATÉGIAS DE HEDGE COM BASE EM MODELOS ESTÁTICOS E DINÂMICOS PARA CONTRATOS FUTUROS DE CAFÉ ARÁBICA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Muller,   Carlos Andre da Silva; Moura,   Altair Dias de; Lima,   Joao Eustaquio de.
Dentro do agronegócio brasileiro, o café arábica está entre os produtos com o mais elevado nível de risco e, ainda assim, é um produto importante para a economia brasileira. Os mercados futuros são reconhecidos como meio de gerenciamento desses riscos, mas observou-se o baixo uso desse mecanismo no caso brasileiro. Por outro lado, a literatura tem avançado quanto aos métodos para realização de estratégias de hedge. Em vista disso, esse artigo teve a finalidade de analisar a efetividade, em redução de riscos, de diferentes estratégias de hedge para o café arábica no Brasil. Foram Testadas quatro estratégias: não atuação em mercados futuros; cobertura completa; estratégia estática que incorpora o conteúdo informacional em médias condicionais, obtida pelo...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Efetividade; Hedge; Café arábica; VEC; MGARCH BEKK; Effectiveness; Hedge; Arabian coffee; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/113187

The Effect of Prior Gains and Losses on Current Risk-Taking Using Quantile Regression
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mattos,   Fabio; Garcia,   Philip.
This paper investigates the dynamics of sequential decision-making in agricultural futures and options markets using a quantile regression framework. Analysis of trading records of 12 traders suggests that there is great heterogeneity in individual trading behavior. Traders respond differently to prior profits depending on how much risk their portfolios are carrying. In general, no significant response is found at average and below-average levels of risk, but response can become large and significant at above-average levels of risk. These results are consistent with studies which argued that behavior may be uneven under different circumstances, and calls into question the adoption of conditional mean framework to investigate trading behavior. Focusing the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Loss aversion; House-money effect; Quantile regression; Futures; Options; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53035

EFFECTS OF FARMERS' RISK ATTITUDES AND PERSONALITY TYPES ON PRODUCTION AND MARKETING DECISIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Xu,   Pei; Alexander,   Corinne E.; Patrick,   George F.; Musser,   Wesley N.
Producers' risk perceptions, as well as their empirical measurement, have been an on-going concern for agricultural economists. Identification and categorization of producers' risk attitudes is important in both research and extension contexts. This study explores some alternative measures of farmers' attitudes and their relationships with observed producer behavior.  The effect of farmers' personality types, as derived from the Myers-Briggs personality type indicator test, on marketing behavior is also explored.  There were positive and statistically significant correlations of producers' risk attitudes in various areas of the farm business. However, there are also some differences in producers' willingness to risk, especially in the finance area....
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28677

PRECISION AGRICULTURE, WHOLE FIELD FARMING AND IRRIGATION PRACTICES:  A PRODUCTION RISK ANALYSIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gandonou,   Jean-Marc; Dillon,   Carl R.; Kanakasabai,   Murali; Shearer,   Scott A.
One of the potential management practices of precision agriculture (PA) is the capability of varying input application rate across a field. A potential benefit of that practice is the reduction in yield variability. Temporal reduction in yield variability can also be achieved through irrigation practices. Combining both practices should lead to a reduction of the yield risk faced by the farmer. In this study, variable rate application of nutrients will include to nitrogen, potassium and phosphate. Mathematical programming techniques will be used in a standard E-V framework to analyze the ability of PA and/or irrigation to reduce production risk.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35131

On the Relationship of Expected Supply and Demand to Futures Prices
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chua,   Hans Walter; Tomek,   William G.
Expectations about future economic conditions are important determinants of commodity prices. This paper presents a relatively simple model that makes futures prices for corn a function of expected production and inventories and of variables that account for demand shifts. The intent is to provide an historical, objective context for new price and quantity observations, which may help market analysts.
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Expected supply; Futures prices; Commodity prices; Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121055

Risk Classification in Animal Disease Prevention: Who Benefits from Differentiated Policy?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Niemi,   Jarkko K.; Lyytikainen,   Tapani; Sahlstrom,   Leena; Virtanen,   Terhi; Lehtonen,   Heikki.
Risk classification of livestock farms can help stakeholders design and implement risk management measures according to the possessed risk. Our goal is to examine how differently pig farms may contribute to the societal costs of an animal disease outbreak, how valuable this information is to different stakeholders, and how it can be used to target risk management measures. We show that the costs of an outbreak starting from a certain farm can be quantified for the entire sector using bio-economic models. In further studies, this quantified risk can be differentiated so that farms and slaughterhouses internalise the full cost of risk in production decisions and inhibit animal densities, animal contact structures or other characteristics which pose a threat...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk classification; Animal disease; Simulation; Dynamic programming; Partial-equilibrium; Losses; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49307

Some possibilities for risk analysis in the decision support of crop production
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nagy,   Lajos.
This article has been made according to my dissertation in which I present some opportunity of risk analysis and risk management in the decision support of crop production. Plant production is one of the most hazardous agricultural enterprises. Among risk sources seasonal fluctuation of average yields plays an important role in the assessment of enterprises. Therefore, I analyzed the production risk of the produced crops in Hungary compared to the European Union’s, after that I took into consideration the production site’s circumstances as well. Decision-makers must possess such means, by which they can measure, oversee and manage the effects and consequences of risk. In crop production linear programming models can be used to determine the optimal crop...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk; Crop production; Decision support; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49232

A Whole-Farm Profitability Analysis of Organic and Conventional Cropping Systems
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Delbridge,   Timothy A.; Fernholz,   Carmen; Lazarus,   William F.; King,   Robert P.
Replaced with revised version of paper 05/26/11.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Organic Farming; Profitability; Farm Size; Machinery Cost; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103790

Australian consumers' willingness to pay and willingness to purchase a hypothetical lower cholesterol pork product
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bellhouse,   Amy; Malcolm,   Bill; Griffith,   Garry R.; Dunshea,   Frank.
This study investigated whether there would be an increase in consumer willingness to pay and purchase if reduced cholesterol pork was introduced to the Australian market. A stated choice analysis was used, with the following questions addressed. How are current purchases of fresh pork affected by concerns about cholesterol content?  What financial premium, if any, would consumers place on reduced cholesterol pork?  Would consumers buy more pork if a low cholesterol option were available?  Is there a group of consumers, such as those with high cholesterol, who have an increased willingness to pay for or purchase reduced cholesterol pork when compared to consumers without this health problem? Results from this study indicated that at present the majority of...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Pork; Cholesterol; Choice analysis; Australian pork; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114414

NORTH DAKOTA LIGNITE ENERGY INDUSTRY'S CONTRIBUTION TO THE STATE ECONOMY FOR 2001 AND PROJECTED FOR 2002
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Coon,   Randal C.; Leistritz,   F. Larry.
This report provides estimates of the lignite industry's contribution to the North Dakota economy, using key economic indicators such as retail trade activity, personal income, total business activity, employment, and tax revenues. The estimates are based on actual industry expenditures for 2001 and projected expenditures for 2002. This analysis contains two measures of the relative importance of the lignite energy industry in North Dakota. First, the industry's share of the state's total sales to final demand (or exports) is evaluated. Second, the business volume generated by the industry is compared to the total gross business volume for the state. Expenditures were obtained from a survey of firms involved in lignite-related activities (mining or...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Economic impacts; Lignite (coal) mining; Lignite conversion; Input-output analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23664

Trust Management - Role of International Standards in Facilitating Safe Trade (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Adams,   Catherine.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8095

RISK AND RISK MANAGEMENT IN ORGANIC AGRICULTURE: VIEW OF ORGANIC FARMERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hanson,   James C.; Dismukes,   Robert; Chambers,   William; Greene,   Catherine R.; Kremen,   Amy.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28551

The Value of Plant Disease Early-Warning Systems: A Case Study of USDA's Soybean Rust Coordinated Framework
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Roberts,   Michael J.; Schimmelpfennig,   David E.; Ashley,   Elizabeth; Livingston,   Michael J.; Ash,   Mark S.; Vasavada,   Utpal.
Early-warning systems for plant diseases are valuable when the systems provide timely forecasts that farmers can use to inform their pest management decisions. To evaluate the value of the systems, this study examines, as a case study, USDA’s coordinated framework for soybean rust surveillance, reporting, prediction, and management, which was developed before the 2005 growing season. The framework’s linchpin is a website that provides real-time, county-level information on the spread of the disease. The study assesses the value of the information tool to farmers and factors that influence that value. The information’s value depends most heavily on farmers’ perceptions of the forecast’s accuracy. The study finds that the framework’s information is valuable...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Soybean rust; Farmers’ perceptions; Forecast accuracy; Updating beliefs; Value of information; Real-time disease location; Plant disease management; Pest management; Risk management; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7208

INTERPRETATIONS AND TRANSFORMATIONS OF SCALE FOR THE PRATT-ARROW ABSOLUTE RISK AVERSION COEFFICIENT:  IMPLICATIONS FOR GENERALIZED STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE:  COMMENT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: McCarl,   Bruce A.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1987
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32224

Eliminating Price Risk to Expand Capacity for Value-Added Activities (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gunderson,   Michael A.; Gloy,   Brent A.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48142

Feasibility of the Income Stabilisation Tool in Finland
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Liesivaara,   Petri; Myyra,   Sami; Jaakkola,   Antti.
Whole-farm income insurances are promoted in the new post-2013 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The current Crop Damage Compensation (CDC) scheme in Finland covers crop failure for farmers who have suffered losses and applied for the payments. This paper analyses the use of the Income Stabilisation Tool (IST) and compares it to the current CDC scheme in Finland. The Finnish Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) is used to simulate the costs of IST compensation payments. Special attention is paid to pig farms and their possibilities to manipulate the IST. Results show that the IST is triggered with a high frequency on Finnish farms. The IST would be more costly than the current CDC programme. The results also suggest that the IST would act as an income...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Income stabilization tool; Moral hazard; Farm Accountancy Data Network; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Q14.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122537

Media Analysis on Volatile Markets’ Dynamics and Adaptive Behavior for the Agri-Food System
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: von Davier,   Zazie; Heyder,   Matthias; Theuvsen,   Ludwig.
The volatility of agricultural markets has increased remarkably in recent years. In spite of this, the way in which supply chain actors perceive market volatility has only rarely been analyzed. This paper seeks to close this research gap by presenting empirical findings about how the volatility of agricultural markets is perceived, how increasing market volatilities are being explained, and what adaptations to the volatile external environments are being suggested. Based on a large-scale media analysis, we have identified perceptions, which vary greatly over time, especially with regard to the perception of the threats and opportunities volatility creates for farms and firms and the most frequently identified reasons for volatile prices
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Media analysis; Public discourse; Shared assumptions; Volatility; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Production Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97024

Producers Rely on Contracts To Manage Increased Price Risks
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: MacDonald,   James M.; Korb,   Penelope J.
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123226

Learning by Doing, Risk Aversion and Use of Risk Management Strategies
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Uematsu,   Hiroki; Ashok,   Mishra K.
Using a national survey, double hurdle models are estimated to examine the impact of farmers’ risk attitude on use of production and marketing contracts. Risk averse farmers are less likely to use contracts but risk attitude does not have any significant impact on the intensity at which contracts are adopted.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk attitude; Double hurdle model; Production contracts; Marketing contracts; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty; Q10; Q13; D81.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103851

The Real Options Approach to Evaluating a Risky Investment by a New Generation Cooperative: Further Processing
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bailey,   Michael D.; Sporleder,   Thomas L.
Farmers continue to be interested in opportunities for value added production through further processing. New Generation Cooperatives (NGCs) offer member commitment through up-front capital contributions on the part of members. For a potential start-up NGC, one of new and novel issues that face the management of an NGC is making project commitments against the total capital available, both equity and debt capital. Because of the up-front capital commitment by members, NGCs invite managers to make commitments in phases, rather than one initial go or no-go decision. Thus, the capital decision is complex and requires managerial vision in terms of an uncertain world beset by constant shifts in prices, interest rates, consumer tastes, and technology. This paper...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31807

A Simulation Approach to Risk Assessment in Investment Analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cassidy,   P.A.; Rodgers,   J.L.; McCarthy,   W.O.
A simulation technique is advanced as a means of determining the probability of achieving various possible financial outcomes when assessing alternative investments. To this end a model is constructed and applied to a proposed investment in pasture improvement. Results are contrasted with a deterministic budget approach. The model uses triangular distributions to derive probabilistic estimates for the stochastic events considered. Possible fields of application of interest to agricultural economists are discussed.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1970
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9614

TEACHING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCERS TO CONSIDER RISK IN DECISION MAKING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nelson,   A. Gene.
The 1996 FAIR Act has emphasized the importance of teaching agricultural producers to understand and respond rationally to risk.  The following are guidelines for considering risk:  (1) analyze decisions using a payoff matrix, (2) estimate the probabilities of events, (3) consider individual attitudes about taking risks, and (4) adopt management strategies to control risk.  Much still remains to be learned about how to teach risk management.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1997
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23996

INSURING EGGS IN BASKETS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hart,   Chad E.; Hayes,   Dermot J.; Babcock,   Bruce A.
The vast majority of crop and revenue insurance policies sold in the United States are single-crop policies that insure against low yields or low revenues for each crop grown on a particular farm. This practice of insuring one crop at a time runs counter to the traditional risk management practice of diversifying across several enterprises to avoid putting all of ones eggs in a single basket. This paper examines the construction of whole-farm crop revenue insurance programs to include livestock. The whole-farm insurance product covers crop revenues from corn and soybeans and livestock revenues from hog production. The results show that at coverage levels of 95 percent or lower, the fair insurance premiums for this product on a well-diversified Iowa hog...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Correlations; Diversification; Livestock; Volatilities; Whole-farm revenue insurance; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18497

SELF-INSURANCE AND THE UTILITY OF STANDARD RISK MANAGEMENT CONTRACTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Makki,   Shiva S.; Miranda,   Mario J.
This paper analyzes the potential trade offs and complementarities that exist between intra-year strategies employing annual price and yield risk contracts and inter-year self-insurance strategies involving intertemporal consumption substitution and borrowing, and examines whether standard crop insurance contracts can be made more useful to farmers if offered with a multiple-year horizon.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20975

AN ASSET-RISK MODEL OF REVERSE TENANCY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bellemare,   Marc F.; Barrett,   Christopher B.
Reverse tenancy, wherein poorer landlords rent out land to richer tenants on shares, is a common phenomenon. Yet, it does not fit existing theoretical models of sharecropping and has never before been modeled in the development microeconomics literature. We explain reverse tenancy contracts using an asset risk model that incorporates moral hazard. When choosing the terms of an agrarian contract, the landlord considers the impact of her choice on the probability that she will retain future rights to the rented land. Thus, this model captures the effect of tenure insecurity and property rights on agrarian contracts. The main testable implication of the theoretical model is that, as property rights become more secure, reverse tenancy tends to disappear.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22132

Business Dynamics with Scenario's on Dutch Agriculture and its Institutional Arrangements
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Poppe,   Krijn J.
This paper investigates the developments in the Dutch Agri-Food innovation system. Main components of the system are agriculture and agribusiness, the promotion of interests in the lobby system and the knowledge system. Each has its own dynamics but they are until now tied together by institutional arrangements. Based on a historical description we formulate a simple business dynamics model. The robustness of the system is investigated by a scenario analysis. Results have been checked by interviews with experts.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agri-food innovation system; Business dynamics; Scenarion analysis; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59038

Instruments Reducing Climatic Risk for Russian Agriculture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sannikova,   Marina; Bukusheva,   Raushan.
The paper evaluates technical solutions and two main tapes of index-based insurance: area yield insurance and weather-based index insurance regarding their efficiency in reducing climatic risks of Russian farms in the steppes zone. The analysis considers area yield insurance at two levels of aggregation - oblast and rayon (county) level. Weather-based index insurance products are drawn up by combining two weather parameters - daily precipitation and daily average air temperature. We employ yield and weather data of an experimental station in the Central Volga Russia for the period from 1979 to 2000. In addition experts' assessments are used to specify alternative levels of production technology and respective yield distributions for the considered region....
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk-management instruments; Climatic risk; Index-based crop insurance; Utility efficiency programming model; Russia; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9271

From total farm to household risk: implication for risk management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: de Mey,   Yann; Wauters,   Erwin; van Winsen,   Frankwin; Vancauteren,   Mark; Van Passel,   Steven; Lauwers,   Ludwig H.
Modeling the farm level impact of risk management programs, policies and instruments is traditionally been done on a farm-level basis. Hence, farm simulation models typically use the behavioural assumption of profit or utility maximization is risk aversion taken into account. However, abundant – albeit indirect – evidence from different literature sources suggest that minimization of  household risk – being the chance of falling below a certain threshold level of household cash flow – might be more realistic behavioural assumption. In this paper, we present concepts of operational, financial, total farm and household risk. Further, using a stochastic simulation model on two typical Belgian dairy farms, we illustrate possible farmers responses in the...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Household risk; Typical dairy farms; Stochastic simulation; Household buffering capacity; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122470

Analyzing the Impact of Structural Change in Iranian Agricultural Credit System
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Yazdani,   Saeed.
Replacement of the traditional interest based credit system with an Islamic credit system was one of the fundamental changes in Iran since 1979. The Islamic credit system, offers the prospect of risk sharing between the borrower and the lender. Small farmers are likely to be risk averse and they are reluctant to go heavily into debt in order to finance investments in new technology and capital intensive methods of production which they perceive to be risky. Farmer's decision making behaviour with regard to risk under the Islamic and interest based credit systems are explored with the aid of a simple conceptual model. Analysis of attitudinal data suggests that the majority of small farmers prefer credit provided under the Islamic credit system. Farmers'...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Islamic credit System; Iran; Agriculture; Risk sharing; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44109

On the Economics of Rational Self-Medication
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Akpalu,   Wisdom.
It has been established in the medical literature that self-medicating with imperfect information about either the use of a genuine or counterfeit drug or based on wrong self-diagnosis of ailment, which is predominant especially in developing countries, is a risky investment in health capital. This paper models the decision to self-medicate and the demand for self-medicated drugs. We suppose that investment in self-medication depends on the perception of its effectiveness. The results obtained show that the decision to self-medicate depends on the relative price and perceived effectiveness of self-medication, the elasticity of the shadow value of health with respect to the quantity of health capital, and the relative effectiveness of self-medication in...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Health Production; Self-Medication; Risky Investment; Government Policy; Dynamic Analysis; Demand and Price Analysis; Health Economics and Policy; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; I12; I18; D81; C61.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6363

Risk premia in Australian interest rates
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Douglas,   Justin J.; Bartley,   Scott W.
The level of and movements in interest rates and the exchange rate can have a substantial impact on the economic performance of Australia's primary industries. Whether a country and/or exchange risk premium has resulted in higher interest rates and increased volatility in the exchange rate is therefore important to these industries. There is some evidence that a small country risk premium may have emerged during the early 1990s. In line with earlier studies, however, no evidence was found of such a premium during the 1980s. A further finding is that any exchange risk premium may have declined over the last decade or so. Possible links between risk premia and Australia's foreign debt and current account deficits are also examined.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1997
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118016

Revenue Risk Reduction Impacts of Crop Insurance in a Multi-Crop Framework
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Woodard,   Joshua D.; Sherrick,   Bruce J.; Schnitkey,   Gary D.
This study develops a multi-crop insurance model which is employed to evaluate crop insurance decisions when several crops are produced jointly. The results suggest that the diversification effects derived from producing multiple crops can substantially alter the risk reduction impacts of crop insurance versus if the decision is viewed from the perspective of a single crop. Further, the relatedness of crop production and price responses among crops differs considerably across insurance products and strategies. As a result, insurance strategies that might provide the maximum risk reduction for an individual crop do not necessarily carry over to the multi-crop case.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Multi-Peril Crop Insurance; Revenue risk; Crop yield distributions; Multi-crop; Insurance strategies; Hedging effectiveness; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53043

Mapping climatic risks in the EU agriculture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gallego,   Javier; Conte,   Costanza G.; Dittmann,   Christoph; Stroblmair,   Josef; Bielza,   Maria.
Replaced with revised version of paper 11/18/08.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agrometeorological models; Climatic risk; European Union; Vegetation indices; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9260

IMPACT OF DECISION MAKERS DIVERGENCE IN RISK ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS ON CO-OPERATIVE MANAGEMENT IN CANADA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hailu,   Getu; Jeffrey,   Scott R.; Goddard,   Ellen W.
In this paper, the results of a survey investigating whether risk attitudes and perceptions differ between managers and boards of directors of co-operative agribusiness firms presented. Using the framework of Fishbein'’s attitude-behavior model the factors underlying these differences are identified. Implications for future strategies of co-operative agribusinesses management are addressed.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20246

Using a MBM Risk Calculator
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Diersen,   Matthew A.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29232

Bio-economic modelling of decisions under yield and price risk for suckler cow farms
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Briner,   Simon; Finger,   Robert.
Applying a bio-economic whole farm model we assess the impact of price and weather risk as well as different risk management strategies on the variability of the income in Swiss suckler cow production. We consider different on-farm risk management strategies such as the flexible adjustment of herd size, fodder composition and feed stocks, as well as an income insurance. Our results show that without any risk-management income variability is rather high, with coefficient of variation (CV) of income ranging from 26% to 31%. Taking on-farm risk management strategies into account it is possible to reduce income variability significantly (CV 12-15%), but causes only low reductions of mean income levels. Our results also indicate that income insurance is not...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Weather risk; Bio-economic whole farm model; Suckler cow; Income insurance; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122547

PRODUCTION RISK AND CROP INSURANCE IN MALTING BARLEY: A STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE ANALYSIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wilson,   William W.; Gustafson,   Cole R.; Dahl,   Bruce L.
Malt barley is an important specialty crop in the Northern Plains and growers mitigate risk with federally subsidized crop insurance and production contracts.  However, growers face considerable risk due to "coverage gaps" in crop insurance that result in uncertain indemnity payments due to uncertainty of their crop meeting contract specifications.  A stochastic dominance model is developed to evaluate alternative risk efficient strategies for growers with differing risk attitudes and production practices (irrigation vs. dryland).  Results show that efficient choices are highly dependent on risk attitudes for dryland growers, but not irrigated growers.  Sensitivities with respect to acceptance risk and level of crop insurance subsidization are presented....
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Malting barley; Stochastic dominance; Stochastic efficiency; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23561

Discussion: What Have We Learned from the New Suite of Risk Management Programs of the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lubben,   Bradley D.; Novak,   James L.
New revenue-based support programs in the 2008 Farm Bill represent a fundamental shift in farm programs and risk management decision-making. However, complexity, uncertainty, economics, and, arguably, an incomplete analysis of the new Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program all contributed to low enrollment in the new program in 2009. An effective analysis of ACRE should consider farm programs as part of an integrated risk management portfolio, including crop insurance, marketing, and other risk management tools as opposed to a separate lottery program. Improving this integration could be one of the most significant consequences of the 2008 Farm Bill.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm bill; Commodity programs; Risk management; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Political Economy; Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q18.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92591

CROP PRODUCER RISK MANAGEMENT SURVEY: A PRELIMINARY SUMMARY OF SELECTED DATA; A REPORT FROM THE UNDERSTANDING FARMER RISK MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING AND EDUCATIONAL NEEDS RESEARCH PROJECT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Coble,   Keith H.; Knight,   Thomas O.; Patrick,   George F.; Baquet,   Alan E.
Changes in the risk environment and tools available to manage risk have resulted in an increased need for risk management skills among farmers and ranchers.  In response the USDA initiated a risk management education competitive grants program in the spring of 1998.  This is the first report from one of the grant-funded projects.  The project's primary objective is to provide supporting research that will contribute to the design and implementation of effective risk management education programs, policies and tools.  This report provides selected summary statistics, without analysis, from a survey of crop producers conducted as part of the first phase of the project.  Over 1,800 usable producer responses from Mississippi, Texas, Indiana, and Nebraska are...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk Insurance Marketing Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15805

Dynamic modelling of agricultural policies: the role of expectation schemes
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Femenia,   Fabienne; Alexandre,   Gohin.
The highly disputed effects of agricultural trade liberalisation are mostly simulated with static models. Our main objective in this paper is to evaluate the robustness of the static simulation results to the consistent modelling of dynamic behaviours and to the linked specification of price/return expectations. Focusing on a complete trade liberalisation scenario of arable crop markets by developed countries, we find that available static results are quite robust to dynamic specifications and to most expectation schemes. Endogenous market fluctuations due to expectation errors may appear following trade liberalisation. These fluctuations are nevertheless limited by the many feedback effects revealed by our general equilibrium framework.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Dynamics; Endogenous fluctuations; Expectation errors; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51665

Management Strategies, Risk Considerations and Herd Size Analysis for Optimal Resource Allocation in Argentine Dairy Farms
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Berger,   Ariadna M.; Knoblauch,   Wayne A.; Pratt,   James E.
After a rapid expansion of the Argentine dairy sector, lower producer prices are expected. As a means of preventing an excessive reduction in dairy farmers’ profitability, an analysis of current profitability and an evaluation of possible improved resource allocation are warranted. This study aims to: 1- establish an optimal plan for dairy farms located in the Santa Fe Sur region, and determine if and how it differs from the current plan; 2- determine if the current resource allocation is efficient in terms of the return-risk tradeoff; 3- evaluate ‘nearly optimal’ plans; and 4- determine the role of herd size in profitability improvement. The comparison of current practices on a representative dairy farm in the Santa Fe Sur region and the optimal solutions...
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122680

Welfare Changes from the U.S. Ethanol Tax Credit: The Role of Uncertainty and Interlinked Commodity Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Baker,   Mindy L.
A model of the corn, soybean, and wheat markets calculates welfare effects of the U.S. ethanol tax credit. Crop yields are uncertain, and demand consists of feed, food, energy, and exports. Modeling uncertainty in crop yields allows the valuation of deficiency payments as options. Disaggregating demand records who benefits from the tax credit and by how much; incorporating linked crop markets captures indirect effects important for determining the transfer from consumers to producers. There is $600 million in net welfare loss, increased taxpayer liability, and a large transfer from consumers to farmers. A brief comparison of recent literature is included.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Biofuel; Commodity; Ethanol; Tax credit; Uncertainty; Welfare.; Risk and Uncertainty; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Food Security and Poverty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45627

Managing Livestock Feed Cost Risks Using Futures and Options
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chen,   Gang; Roberts,   Matthew C.; Roe,   Brian E.
The costs of corn- and soybean-based feeds compose a substantial proportion of the variable costs faced by both mainstream and emergent confined livestock producers. This research develops a method to provide a joint distribution of prices of corn and soybean meal at a future time. Black's 1976 option model and stochastic volatility jump diffusion (SVJD) model are compared in volatility forecasting performance. In general, SVJD is superior to Black's model, though their performance is both commodity-specific and forecasting horizon specific. The price forecast can assist livestock producers to assess different feed procurement strategies in terms of the distribution of costs projected for each strategy.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19399

PERCEPTIONS OF RISK AMONG COMMERCIAL FARMERS IN KWAZULU-NATAL IN A CHANGING ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Stockil,   R.C.; Ortmann,   Gerald F.
This study analyses the importance and dimensions of risk sources and computer adoption among farmers in a changing economic policy and trade environment. A survey was conducted in 1996 among 112 commercial farmers in KwaZulu-Natal. The majority of respondents were in favour of a liberalized trade environment and deregulated domestic product and input markets. Respondents identified changes in the cost of farm inputs, government legislation (tax, labour, and land redistribution), the Rand exchange rate, and product prices as the most important sources of risk. Factor analysis of risk sources showed that various dimensions to risk exist, including changes in government policy, enterprise gross income, credit access and cost changes. Computers, a risk...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1997
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54912

The Equivalence of Strict Liability and Negligence Rule: A « Trompe l'œil » Perspective
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gerard,   Mondello.
This paper analyzes the difficulties of comparing the respective effectiveness of two among the most important liability regimes in tort law: rule of negligence and strict liability. Starting from the standard Shavellian unilateral accident scheme, I show that matching up liability regime on their capacity to provide the highest level of safety is ineffective. This demonstration lies on two components. The first one gathers some results drawn from literature that introduces uncertainty. The second one takes into consideration the beliefs of agents and their aversion to ambiguity. The model applies uncertainty to the level of maximum damage. This demonstration reinforces the previous result. Hence, both regimes apply on specific tort question and comparing...
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Strict Liability; Negligence Rule; Ambiguity Theory; Uncertainty; Accident Model; Risk and Uncertainty; K0; K32; Q01; Q58.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121910

Government support, transfer efficiency, and moral hazard within heterogeneous regions in Canadian Agriculture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Thibodeau,   David R.; Clark,   J. Stephen.
This study estimates the transfer efficiency of government payments on Canadian agriculture.  Three measures of efficiency are used: (1) the capitalization of support into farmland values, (2) the rate of income stabilization, and (3) the effect of past government support on the variance of income. We derive transfer efficiency estimates by applying panel econometric techniques to provincial time series data. With regard to the capitalization formula, we find that the capitalization of government into farmland values is homogeneous across provinces. We estimate the rate of capitalization at approximately $11.76 for every $1.00 increase in government support. A substantial amount of heterogeneity was found for the stabilization equation. Four homogeneous...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Land values; Income stabilization; Moral Hazard; Non-stationarity; Agricultural and Food Policy; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51806

An Internet-Based Tool for Weather Risk Management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Turvey,   Calum G.; Norton,   Michael T.
This paper introduces a web-based computer program designed to evaluate weather risk man-agement and weather insurance in the United States. The paper outlines the economics of weather risk in terms of agricultural production and household well-being; defines weather risk in terms of intensity, duration, and frequency; and illustrates the computer program use by comparing heat and precipitation risks at Ardmore, Oklahoma, and Ithaca, New York.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Weather insurance; Heat insurance; Precipitation insurance; Crop insurance; Weather derivatives; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44739

A Comparison between Perception of Risk and Willingness to Serve Genetically Modified Foods
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nganje,   William E.; Wachenheim,   Cheryl J.; Lesch,   William C.
The dichotomy between perceptions of the acceptability of risk associated with genetically modified (GM) foods and willingness to consume GM foods is investigated. Results indicate that some consumers are willing to consume GM foods even though they may perceive such foods as somewhat unsafe, with determinants such as self-perceived knowledge about the availability of GM foods and altruistic motives having positive and significant effects on their consumption decisions. Efforts toward decreasing perception of risk and ultimately increasing acceptance of and demand for GM foods should address issues related to their altruistic characteristics and outrage.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Consumer/Household Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99792

DISCUSSION: RISK AND FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS FOR FIRM GROWTH IN AN UNCERTAIN MARKET
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Martin,   Neil R., Jr.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1979
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29553

EVALUATION OF CROP INSURANCE PREMIUM RATES FOR GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA PEACHES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Miller,   Stephen E.; Kahl,   Kandice H.; Rathwell,   P. James.
We estimate actuarially fair premium rates for yield insurance for Georgia and South Carolina peaches for comparison to the premium rates established by the Risk Management Agency (RMA) for the 1999 crop. The RMA premium rates varied from county to county, but were identical for all growers in a given county. The estimated premium rates decrease with the grower's expected yield.  The RMA rate structure encouraged adverse selection, as premium rates were too low for growers with low expected yields (especially at low coverage levels) and were too high for growers with high expected yields (especially at high coverage levels).
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Adverse selection; Crop insurance; Peaches; Premium rate; Yield guarantee; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14711

Factors Affecting Crop Insurance Purchase Decisions in Northern Illinois
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ginder,   Matthew G.; Spaulding,   Aslihan D.
When making crop insurance purchase decisions, farmers must consider multiple factors. This paper examines such factors through the use of a survey conducted in a 42 county region of Northern Illinois during 2005. Participants were asked who most influenced their crop insurance purchase decision and if the availability of a Premium Discount Plan (PDP) affected their decision. Respondents indicated that they generally made crop insurance purchase decisions independently, and that the availability of a PDP influenced about 25% of the decisions made. Questions about the importance of ten specific purchase factors were also asked in two distinct groups of five factors each. In one group of factors, price of the insurance was found to be more important than the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21073

Pesticides:  Health impacts and alternatives.  Proceedings of a workshop held in Colombo, 24 January 2002
Provedor de dados: 31
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Pest control; Pesticide residues; Public health; Legislation; Policy; Social aspects; Risks; Health Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92700

A Nonlinear Offset Program to Reduce Nitrous Oxide Emissions Induced by Excessive Nitrogen Application
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rosas,   Francisco; Babcock,   Bruce A.; Hayes,   Dermot J.
On average, U.S. farmers choose to apply nitrogen fertilizer at a rate that exceeds the ex post agronomically optimal rate. The technology underlying the yield response to nitrogen rewards producers who over apply in years when rainfall is excessive. The overapplication of nutrients has negative environmental consequences because the nitrogen that is not taken up by the plant will typically volatilize causing N2O emissions, or leach causing water pollution. We present a nonlinear offset program that induces farmers to reduce their nitrogen applications to the level that will be consumed by the plant in a typical year and, as a result, reduce N2O emissions from agriculture. The offset program is nonlinear because of the nonlinear relationship between N2O...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Carbon offsets; Nitrogen fertilizer; Nitrous oxide; Pollution; Uncertainty; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103914

A Structural Analysis of Contractual Innovations within the CIS Milk Industry
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jackson,   Elizabeth; Gorton,   Matthew; White,   John.
Utilising primary survey data, this paper evaluates the relationships between a set of supplier development strategies and performance within the milk industry in Armenia and Ukraine. Improving supplier performance is a critical task for the dairy industry in the Former Soviet Union as, during the 1990s both the quantity and quality of agricultural output deteriorated sharply. Fragmented supply chains led to high transaction costs and, in some cases, market failure. Drawing on the work of Krause et al. (2000) and Doney and Cannon (1997), a theoretical framework is presented that proposes that, either directly or indirectly, supplier assessment strategies, supplier incentives, competitive pressure, direct involvement, and trust between buyers and sellers,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59181

RISK MANAGEMENT AND THE ENVIRONMENT: IMPACTS AT THE INTENSIVE AND EXTENSIVE MARGINS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Soule,   Meredith J.; Nimon,   R. Wesley; Mullarkey,   Daniel J.
Risk management programs, such as subsidized crop insurance, affect production decisions at both the intensive (input use) and extensive(land use) margins.  The production decisions in turn affect the environment.  This paper reviews and synthesizes the literature linking risk management policies and environmental outcomes and points to future research needs.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20670

Determination of Optimal Environmental Flow Acquisition  in Kor Basin, Doroudzan Dam
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Asad Falsafi Zadeh,   Neda; Sabouhi Sabouni,   Mahmood.
In current study, an irrigation examination and acquisition of environmental water in Kor River fields, that is dominated from Doroudzan dam to Bakhtegan Lake, was done by an integrated economy-environmental model. The model was considered by economic, hydrologic and agronomic components. In the economic component, an optimal harvesting of water was done using non-linear programming in two scenarios; with and without environmental water constraint. Solutions from simulation of environmental data in the hydrologic component, was used as initial data in the economic component. In the agronomic component, actual crop yield in wet, normal and dry years was determined using the relationship between crop yield and irrigation water amount. Results showed that,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Expected Net Income; Hydrology; Non-Linear Programming Model; Deficit Irrigation; Consumer/Household Economics; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; C32; C61; D42; D61.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50258

DESIGNING OPTIMAL CROP REVENUE INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mahul,   Olivier; Wright,   Brian D.
The optimal crop revenue insurance contract is designed from recent developments in the theory of insurance economics under incomplete markets. The message is two-fold.  Firstly, when the indemnity schedule is contingent on individual price and individual yield, the optimal contract depends only on the individual gross revenue.  Secondly, this policy is shown to fail if the indemnity function is based on aggregate price and/or aggregate yield. A closed-form solution, in which basis risks are ignored, is proposed. It differs from actual revenue insurance programs proposed to the U.S. farmers. When insurance and capital markets are unbiased, it can be replicated with existing crop yield and revenue insurance policies and hedging contracts if the decision...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21729

Using participating and financial contracts to insure catastrophe risk: Implications for crop risk management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Enjolras,   Geoffroy; Kast,   Robert.
High losses generated by natural catastrophes reduce the availability of insurance. Among the ways to manage risk, the subscriptions of participating and non-participating contracts respectively permit to implement the two major principles in risk allocation: the mutuality and the transfer principles. Decomposing a global risk into its idiosyncratic and systemic components, we show that: the participating contract hedges the individual losses under a variable premium and the systemic risk is covered with a non-participating contract under a fixed premium. Based on Doherty and Schlesinger (2002) and Mahul (2002) approaches, our model replaces the non-participating contract by a financial one based on an index closely correlated to the systemic risk, under a...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Catastrophe risk; Crop insurance; Optimal hedging; Securitization; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9268

Contractual Arrangements of Traders in Chinese Wholesale Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Yu,   Xiaohua; Abler,   David G.; Zeng,   Yinchu.
Using a survey data of 700 traders, this study scrutinizes contract choices and enforcement for agricultural traders in China. This study finds that market service and environment are very important for both contract choices and enforcement. Better market service and environment can increase the propensity of using contract and the probability of contract enforcement both for purchase and sales of products. Education and memberships of special associations are also important for contract choices and enforcement. Higher education and affiliation to special associations for traders can increase the propensity of contracts and reduce contract breaches. However, the formats of contracts, whether contracts are oral or written, are not important for contract...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Contract; Trader; Wholesale Market; China; Agribusiness; Industrial Organization; International Development; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty; L14; Q12; Q13.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51399

Precision Feeding in Dairy Ration Cost Minimization Under Producer's Risk Management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Salim,   Juma K.; Dillon,   Carl R.
The biophysical simulation data from Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System were used in non-linear programming model for least cost ration incorporating ingredient nutrient and price variations. Precision feeding practice indicated to have lower mean cost ration than whole herd feeding in terms of ration cost.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Non-linear programming; Nutrient variation; Price variation; Precision feeding; Environmental pollution; Phosphorus; Nitrogen; Mean cost ration; Whole herd feeding; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34925

Veggies 4U's Energy Pricing Dilemma
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Braga,   Francesco S.
Veggies 4U is a young and dynamic family-run greenhouse: Lucy and her husband run the business with the help of a small group of friends and colleagues who serve on the company's Board of Directors. Lucy is preparing a report to the Board to recommend a natural gas supply contract for the next three years. The company has received four different contract offers, ranging from a simple forward contract, to a maximum cost contract with a price floor. The case focuses on the pricing and risk management opportunities offered by an integrated North American natural gas market. Lucy has to assess the different supply contract offers received by the company and to reverse engineer them in order to benchmark their cost with that of potential synthetic alternatives...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Energy price risk; Natural gas supply contract; Financial engineering; Risk; Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8138

Systemic Risk in U.S. Crop and Revenue Insurance Programs
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mason,   Chuck; Hayes,   Dermot J.; Lence,   Sergio H.
The present study estimates the probability density function of the Federal Risk Management Agency's (RMA) net income from reinsuring crop insurance for corn, wheat, and soybeans. Based on 1997 data, it is estimated that there is a 5 percent probability that RMA will need to reimburse at least $1 billion to insurance companies, and that the fair value of RMA's reinsurance services to insurance firms equals $78.7 million. In addition, various hedging strategies are examined for their potential to reduce RMA's reinsurance risk. The risk reduction achievable by hedging is appreciable, but use of derivative contracts alone is clearly no panacea.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18481

Decisions and tradable production quota when yield is uncertain
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hennessy,   David A.; Wei,   Wei.
This article analyses optimal decisions under regulation by tradable agricultural production/marketing quotas when production is stochastic. For risk‐neutral and risk‐averse producers the fraction of planned production that is covered by quota is separable from input decisions when yield randomness is additive. The role of quota in protecting against the risk of production shortfall is investigated. A producer is shown to benefit from being allowed to treat as one all tranches of production quota under his control. Production decisions are invariant to this amalgamation. But when production randomness is additive normal, the qualitative impact of amalgamation on quota positions depends upon whether the ratio of rental price to the price difference that is...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117837

Think Again: Higher Elasticity of Substitution Increases Economic Resilience
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dumas,   Patrice; Hallegatte,   Stephane.
This paper shows that, counter-intuitively, a higher elasticity of substitution in model production function can lead to reduced economic resilience and larger vulnerability to shocks in production factor prices. This result is due to the fact that assuming a higher elasticity of substitution requires a recalibration of the production function parameters to keep the model initial state unchanged. This result has consequences for economic analysis, e.g., on the economic vulnerability to climate change.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Substitution; Calibration; Constant Elasticity of Substitution; Shock; Risk and Uncertainty; D24; E17; E23.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54283

Choices under Risk in Rural Peru
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Galarza,   Francisco B.
This paper estimates the risk preferences of cotton farmers in Southern Peru, using the results from a multiple-price-list lottery game. Assuming that preferences conform to two of the leading models of decision under risk. Expected Utility Theory (EUT) and Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) -- we find strong evidence of moderate risk aversion. Once we include individual characteristics in the estimation of risk parameters, we observe that farmers use subjective nonlinear probability weighting, a behavior consistent with CPT. Interestingly, when we allow for preference heterogeneity via the estimation of mixture models -- where the proportion of subjects who behave according to EUT or to CPT is endogenously determined -- we find that the majority of farmers’...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: International Development; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92247

Climate Policy When the Distant Future Matters: Catastrophic Events with Hyperbolic Discounting
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Karp,   Larry S.; Tsur,   Yacov.
Low probability catastrophic climate change can have a significant influence on policy under hyperbolic discounting. We compare the set of Markov Perfect Equilibria (MPE) to the optimal policy under time-consistent commitment. For some initial levels of risk there are multiple MPE; these may involve either excessive or insufficient stabilization effort. These results imply that even if the free-rider problem amongst contemporaneous decision-makers were solved, there may remain a coordination problem amongst successive generations of decision-makers. A numerical example shows that under plausible conditions society should respond vigorously to the threat of climate change.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Abrupt climate change; Event uncertainty; Catastrophic risk; Hyperbolic discounting; Markov Perfect Equilibria; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; C61; C73; D63; D99; Q54.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7186

Risk Management and the Role of Off-farm Income
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Freshwater,   David; Jette-Nantel,   Simon.
The majority of farm households in OECD countries earn more off-farm income than farm income, even including government payments. While this is a well recognized fact its implications for risk management have not been well recognized. Current efforts to reform farm support have focused on the variability of farm household income and largely ignored the variability of total farm household income.  Since it is common for farm households to allocate labor and capital across both farm and non-farm opportunities, it is also likely that their attitude to risk in farming can best be understood by seeing farm risk and return in a household portfolio of income. This approach immediately leads to farm risk being less problematic the more diversified the portfolio...
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Off-farm income; Risk management; Agricultural policy; Farm household; Farm income; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120184

A METHOD FOR EVALUATING SUPPLY RESPONSE TO PRICE UNDERWRITING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fraser,   Rob W.
In this paper a method for evaluating the supply response of individual producers to a price underwriting scheme is presented. The method includes precise formulae to take account of the impact of price underwriting on the producer's uncertain conditions. The Australian Wheat Board's guaranteed minimum price scheme is taken as a specific example of price underwriting in practice. Results show the scheme to lead to only relatively small supply responses. The impact on producer behaviour of an increase in price uncertainty in the presence of an underwriting scheme is also demonstrated in the paper.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1988
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22921

A non-compensatory choice modeling analysis of Japanese consumers’ preferences for beef: A choice experiment approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Aizaki,   Hideo; Sawada,   Manabu; Sato,   Kazuo; Kikkawa,   Toshiko.
The purpose of this paper is to examine, using choice experiments, the Japanese consumers’ valuation of domestic Wagyu beef, domestic dairy beef, Australian beef, and US beef when considering their bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) test status. Some Japanese consumers give high priority to food safety while purchasing beef; this is expected to cause a non-compensatory valuation of food safety. As compared to the results derived from a compensatory utility model, a random parameters logit (RPL) with a non-compensatory utility model provides estimation results that are fitter for the respondents’ decision-making rules and also provides more valid willingness to pay (WTP) for each type of beef. The results suggest that the RPL with the non-compensatory...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: BSE; Food safety; Consumers' valuation; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13; D18; D12.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51656

The Economic Impact of Drought on the Whitewater Rafting Industry in Colorado
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shrestha,   Prabhakar; Schoengold,   Karina.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Community/Rural/Urban Development; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61873

ADJUSTED GROSS REVENUE PILOT INSURANCE PROGRAM: RATING PROCEDURE (REPORT PREPARED FOR THE RISK MANAGEMENT AGENCY BOARD OF DIRECTORS)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Black,   J. Roy.
The focus of this paper is on outlining the procedures used to estimate the premium rates for the Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) insurance plan.  The AGR rating procedures draw substantially on rating procedures used in products currently reinsured and subsidized by Risk Management Agency/USDA (RMA); thus, the principal focus here is on those features that are a specific to AGR. The outline, briefly, the procedures used in rating existing products to set the stage for describing AGR rating procedures. The focus of AGR is on farms whose principal revenue streams are from NAP crops as contrasted to farms whose crops can be insured under a plan reinsured and subsidized by RMA; however, the procedures must recognize and take advantage of the fact that crops with...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11721

REAL EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINANTS IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES: Do Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Political Risk Play a Role?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Heboyan,   Vahe; Gunter,   Lewell F.
Replaced with revised version of poster 07/21/11.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103952

Reduction of Yield and Income Risk Under Alternative Crop Insurance and Disaster Assistance Plans
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Carriker,   Gordon L.; Williams,   Jeffery R.; Barnaby,   Glenn Arthur, Jr.; Black,   J. Roy.
This study compares the effectiveness of five crop insurance/disaster assistance plans: an individual farm yield insurance plan similar to the current FCIC multi-peril program ; two area yield insurance plans; a farm yield disaster assistance plan; and an area yield disaster assistance plan. These methods are examined for reduction in yield and gross income variability with and without participation in the government deficiency payment programs using farm-level yield data from 98 dryland wheat farms and 38 dryland corn farms in Kansas . Although individual farm yield insurance is complex, suffers from moral hazard and adverse selection problems, and is likely to be the most expensive to administer , it provides more yield and gross income risk reduction...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop Insurance; Crop Disaster Assistance; Risk; Wheat; Corn; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1990
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118191

Managing Risk in Farming: Concepts, Research, and Analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Harwood,   Joy L.; Heifner,   Richard G.; Coble,   Keith H.; Perry,   Janet E.; Somwaru,   Agapi.
The risks confronted by grain and cotton farmers are of particular interest, given the changing role of the Government after passage of the 1996 Farm Act.  With the shift toward less government intervention in the post-1996 Farm Act environment, a more sophisticated understanding of risk and risk management is important to help producers make better decisions in risky situations and to assist policymakers in assessing the effectiveness of different types of risk protection tools. In response, this report provides a rigorous, yet accessible, description of risk and risk management tools and strategies at the farm level. It also provides never-before-published data on farmers' assessments of the risks they face, their use of alternative risk management...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Diversification; Futures contracts; Leasing; Leveraging; Liquidity; Livestock insurance; Marketing contracts; Options contracts; Production contracts; Revenue insurance; Risk; Vertical integration; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34081

CONTRADICTORY PREDICTIONS ON SUPPLY RESPONSE UNDER STABILIZATION: A RECONCILIATION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Quiggin,   John C.
Two separate bodies of literature on stabilization give radically different results, yet these contradictions have not attracted any attention. The first arises from the neoclassical theory of stabilization and predicts that beneficial stabilization will always attract positive supply response. The second arises from the work of Newbery and Stiglitz and predicts 'perverse' supply response for highly risk averse producers. In this paper, the differences which yield these results are described and some suggestions are made for a generalized model.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1991
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22619

RISK-RETURN ASSESSMENT OF IRRIGATION DECISIONS IN HUMID REGIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Boggess,   William G.; Lynne,   Gary D.; Jones,   James W.; Swaney,   D.P.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1983
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30246

Crop Insurance (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hart,   Chad E.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/106138

DROUGHT, STRIFE, AND INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Howitt,   Richard E.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/27991

Analysis of profitability and risk in new agriculture in a Himalayan watershed by using dynamic non-linear programming model
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sharma,   Rakesh Kumar; Sankhayan,   Prem Lall; Singh,   Ranveer.
Cropping pattern in the Himalayan region of India has undergone a significant change in the recent past. Introduction of horticultural crops of vegetables, fruits and flowers have led to more intensive agriculture. Such a change, resulting in higher incomes and improvements of the overall living conditions has, however, been accompanied with increased income risk. This emphasises a need for proper analysis of the cropping pattern, at an appropriate scale, such as, a micro watershed. This was achieved by constructing a dynamic non-linear programming model incorporating appropriate objective function, constraints and crop and livestock activity budgets along with risk component present in the gross returns. The model was then solved under alternate policy...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Cropping pattern; Gross margins; Himachal Pradesh; Optimization; Covariance; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; C61; Q12; Q15.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51404

SELECTIVE RESPONSES TO RISK IN PURCHASING GRAIN:  DO PATRON AND INVESTOR OWNED FIRMS DIFFER?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Post,   Phillip H.
The broad purpose of this study is to compare patron owned with investor owned firms in terms of the arrangements they make to cope with the risk inherent in the exchange of grain between Michigan farmers and the first-handler grain firms that serve them.  Focus will be upon possible distinctions between cooperative and proprietary firms within three specific areas of concern.  These areas are:  (1)  the pricing of grain; (2)  the methods of exchange firms offer to their farm customers; and (3) the terms and conditions of grain purchase contracts.
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1989
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11119

Livestock Disease Indemnity Design When Moral Hazard is Followed by Adverse Selection
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gramig,   Benjamin M.; Horan,   Richard D.; Wolf,   Christopher A.
Averting or limiting the outbreak of infectious disease in domestic livestock herds is an economic and potential human health issue that involves both the government and individual livestock producers. Producers have private information about preventive biosecurity measures they adopt on their farms prior to outbreak (ex ante moral hazard), and following outbreak they possess private information about whether or not their herd is infected (ex post adverse selection). We investigate how indemnity payments can be designed to provide incentives to producers to invest in biosecurity and report infection to the government, while simultaneously addressing the information asymmetry between producers and the government. We show how addressing the adverse selection...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6542

Is There Co-Movement of Agricultural Commodities Futures Prices and Crude Oil?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Natanelov,   Valeri; Alam,   Mohammad Jahangir; McKenzie,   Andrew M.; Van Huylenbroeck,   Guido.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114626

Too Connected to Fail: The Effect of Alliance Network Structure on Farm Survival
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kirwan,   Barrett E.; Martens,   Andrea.
Exogenous, unobserved factors often confound the effects of alliance networks.  More capable farmers might be less likely to exit and more likely to have a large number of alliances.  In this case the negative correlation between alliance network size and exit likelihood is due to the unobserved confounder--farmer ability--not the effect of network size on exit likelihood. Recognizing the endogeneity of alliance network size when determining a farm’s survival likelihood, we employ an empirical model that accounts for the bias caused by unobserved effects. We account for time-invariant unobserved effects with individual fixed effects.  We control for county-level confounding factors with a time-varying county effect. Finally, we address unobserved,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Networks; Alliances; Agriculture; Policy; Organizational structure; Industrial organization; Finance; Entrepreneurship; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Industrial Organization; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty; L1; L14; L26; Q1; Q14; Q18.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103573

COMMODITY INDEX FUNDS AND PRICE SWINGS: CONDITIONS OF CAUSALITY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gohin,   Alexandre; Cordier,   Jean.
The role played by “speculators” during the 2007/08 food price spike is lively disputed. Our analysis focuses on the increasing participation of index funds in agricultural commodity futures markets before the food price spike. Our central theme is to determine if their prespike massive entry does prepare the subsequent crisis by maintaining low stock levels. We develop a theoretical model explaining the behaviour of speculators and traders on futures and cash markets. We allow index funds to inflict an informational externality on commercial traders that is supposed to induce a lower desire to hold stock. We find out that, once the production decisions of commercial traders are taken into account into the model, the increased net long position of index...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Futures markets; Commodity price; Index funds; Stocks; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91283

Climate change risk and response
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kahrl,   Fredrich; Roland-Holst,   David W.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Energy; Sustainability; Climate change; Risk; Economic conditions; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46721

Livestock epidemics and catastrophic risk management: State of the art and prospects on economic dynamics
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rault,   Arnaud; Krebs,   Stephane.
The economic consequences of livestock epidemics have been long studied for purposes of estimating the costs of the veterinary measures. In this paper, we show that this catastrophic risk may have wide market consequences, and that the risk management systems are quite limited to compensate long term impacts in the European context of growing trade. Through a detailed literature review we present the main developments of the economic literature aiming to highlight the economic consequences of animal epidemics such as Foot and Mouth Disease. We acknowledge that a very few studies have focused on the economic dynamics and on the long run effects occurring after an epidemic disease outbreak. We discuss the appropriateness of a dynamic approach to reveal that...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114793

Risk Management Strategies in New Zealand Agriculture and Horticulture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Martin,   Sandra.
This study strengthens the empirical basis for risk analysis by identifying the importance which producers attach to different risk management strategies in New Zealand's deregulated farming environment. A nationwide survey covering eight farm types was conducted. As range of production, marketing and financial strategies used by farmers and growers were identified. Some strategies appear to be favoured by farmers and growers in all industries, others seem to be industry specific, and some are universally unpopular. The mix of strategies employed seems to vary by farm type. Possible reasons for variation are identified.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1996
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12298

A COMPARISON OF NOMINAL AND REAL HISTORICAL RISK MEASURES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ford,   Beth Pride; Musser,   Wesley N.
Previous studies of historical risk have used either nominal or real data to calculate risk measures for agricultural prices and income. However, the effects of using nominal and real data have not been evaluated. This study utilizes theoretical variance approximation relationships to examine variances from detrended real and nominal time series. The relationships between variances are derived for quarterly U.S. farm milk prices for 1960-72, 1973-80, and 1981-90. Contrary to common intuitive arguments, results indicate that variances of real time series can be larger than variances of nominal series. While definitive conclusions are not possible, several reasons for using nominal data in risk analysis are given.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Detrending; Indices; Nominal data; Risk measurement; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1995
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15259

Volatility in Agriculture Commodity Prices in India: Impact and Macroeconomic and Sector-Specific Policy Responses
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bathla,   Seema.
Globalization and trade liberalization have exposed agricultural sector of many developing countries to sudden disturbances, caused not just by demand-supply conditions within their economies but also by volatility in global commodity prices, exchange rate and surge in imports. This paper evaluates the magnitude of sensitivity of Indian agriculture to these factors, and explores policy options that may neutralize their adverse effects, maintain price incentives and stability. The analysis is undertaken for one important tradable commodity viz. wheat by applying a structural econometric model, separately under the exportable and importable scenarios from 1980-81 to 2009-10. Findings reveal wheat to be increasingly driven by an incentive structure based on...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural trade; Price transmission; Volatility; Macroeconomic policies; International Relations/Trade; Risk and Uncertainty; Q17; C22; E69; E60.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122543

PRODUCTION RISK AND EFFICIENT ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anderson,   Jock R.; Griffiths,   William E.
Efficient allocation of resources has usually been couched in risk less terms, partly because statistical techniques did not exist for measuring the impact of varying levels of factors of production on risks associated with production. Now that such techniques are available, methods are required for determining efficient allocations. Such models, particularly those exploiting stochastic efficiency analysis, are illustrated here with respect to empirical risk-sensitive, farm-firm production functions.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1982
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22706

A COMPARISON OF RISK EFFICIENCY CRITERIA IN EVALUATING GROUNDNUT PERFORMANCE IN DROUGHT-PRONE AREAS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bailey,   Elizabeth; Boisvert,   Richard N.
This paper contributes to an evaluation of the performance of ground nuts in drought-prone areas by estimating yield response functions to water from experimental data. They are combined with meteorological data to simulate yields by location. Efficient genotypes are identified by several risk criteria. Genotype rankings based on these risk criteria and simulated yields are different from those based on experimental data and plant scientists' traditional methods of evaluation.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1989
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22997

Agricultural Contracting Update, 2005
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: MacDonald,   James M.; Korb,   Penelope J.
More than half of all transactions for U.S. agricultural products are still conducted through spot market exchanges, in which commodities are bought and sold in open market transactions for immediate delivery. But a growing share of U.S. farm production is produced and sold under agricultural contracts. Such contracts between farmers and their buyers are reached prior to harvest (or before the completion stage for livestock) and govern the terms under which products are transferred from the farm. The shift of production to contracting coincides with shifts of production to larger farms. Contracts are far more likely to be used on large farms than on small ones. Marketing and production contracts covered 41 percent of the value of U.S. agricultural...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Production contracts; Marketing contracts; Farm structure; Farm size; Contracting; Agricultural Resource Management Survey; ARMS; Risk analysis; Marketing; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58639

EFFECTIVE COMMUNICATION ABOUT RISK
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kendall,   Pat.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1990
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/17112

Adversity and the Propensity to Fail: The Impact of Disaster Payments and Multiple Peril Crop Insurance on U.S. Farm Exit Rates
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kirwan,   Barrett E.
This paper investigates the effect of government-provided crop insurance on farm failure rates. By exploiting random variation in weather and the Federal Crop Insurance Reform Act of 1994, which mandated crop insurance coverage for the first time, I employ two natural experiments that identify the causal effect of disaster relief on farm failure rates. I examine the survival smoothing contribution of crop insurance by looking at the relative effect of disaster relief across two regimes, pre- and post-1994. Prior to 1994 ad hoc, ex post disaster payments were the primary form of disaster relief. Shortly after the 1994 Act virtually all disaster relief came through crop insurance indemnities. I find that disaster relief in the form of ad hoc disaster...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49569

RELIABILITY OF OPTIONS MARKETS FOR CROP REVENUE INSURANCE RATING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Buschena,   David E.; Ziegler,   Lee.
Revenue insurance, only recently introduced for major crops in the U.S., has captured a considerable share of the multiple-peril insurance market. This study evaluates the predictive reliability of using price distributions inferred from options markets to rate revenue insurance products. We find for periods early in the crop growing season that price distributions inferred from options trades offer greater reliability than distributions based on historical futures trades. Options-based price distributions should receive further consideration in crop revenue insurance rating, but current administrative constraints must be considered.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30806

Discounting and confidence
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Traeger,   Christian P.
Revision of CUDARE Working Paper 1117 issued June 2011
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Discounting; Climate change; Ambiguity; Confidence; Subjective beliefs; Prudence; Pessimism; Expected utility; Intertemporal substitutability; Intertemporal risk aversion; Risk and Uncertainty; D61; Q54; D81; D90.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120418

The Effects of Transitional Yields on Adverse Selection in Crop Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Walters,   Cory G.; Shumway,   C. Richard; Chouinard,   Hayley H.; Wandschneider,   Philip R.
Transitional yields based on county average can be used by producers as the basis to obtain crop insurance on fields that have not previously produced the crop.  Using field-level crop insurance contract data for several crops in five different growing regions we examine the impact of this asymmetric information on adverse selection.  Our results indicate that adverse selection does exist from the use of transitional yields and that it is crop specific but not land-quality specific.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Adverse selection; Crop insurance; Transitional yields; Risk and Uncertainty; Q18.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9849

Rotational grazing adoption in cattle production under a cost-share agreement: does uncertainty have a role in conservation technology adoption?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kim,   Seon-Ae; Gillespie,   Jeffrey M.; Paudel,   Krishna P.
Rotational grazing has been promoted as a best management practice with environmental benefits and associated higher revenue. Its adoption rate has been relatively low. This study investigates the role of uncertainty in the adoption of rotational grazing with a cost-share by cattle producers. Mail survey results indicate that 63–71 per cent of cattle producers are uncertain about adoption with a government cost-share. The study suggests that the possibility of uncertainty should be considered in cases where willingness-to-pay is elicited in the context of adoption of technology.
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Best management practices; Ex-ante technology adoption; Rotational grazing; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118542

A Risk Analysis of Converting CRP Acres to a Wheat-Sorghum-Fallow Rotation
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Williams,   Jeffery R.; Llewelyn,   Richard V.; Pendell,   Dustin L.; Schlegel,   Alan J.; Troy,   Dumler.
This study examines the economic potential of producing a wheat (Triticum aesitivum) and grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) rotation with three different tillage strategies compared to the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in a semi-arid region.  This research uses stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to determine the preferred management strategies under various risk preferences and utility-weighted certainty equivalent risk premiums.  Yields, input rates, and field operations from an experimental field in western Kansas are used to calculate net returns for each tillage strategy.  Although current net returns to crop production using reduced tillage and no-tillage strategies are higher than CRP, risk analysis indicates CRP...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Conservation Reserve Program; Conservation tillage; Simulation; Sorghum; Wheat; Risk; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45985

Peer Effect, Risk-Pooling and Status Seeking: Which Matters to Gift Spending Escalation in Rural China?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chen,   Xi; Zhang,   Xiaobo.
This paper is based on our ongoing joint work with Ravi Kanbur. Xi Chen is grateful to Ravi Kanbur for invaluable comments, guidance and encouragement. For comments and suggestions, please direct correspondence to Xi Chen at xc49@cornell.edu.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Social Network; Peer Effect; Risk-pooling; Status Seeking; Gift-giving; Ceremony; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; International Development; Public Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; I32; J22; D13; D63.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103643

Innovations in Index Insurance for the Poor in Lower Income Countries
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Skees,   Jerry R.
This article focuses on innovation in weather insurance designed to fit the special circum-stances of the poor in lower income countries where rural and agricultural financial markets are largely underdeveloped. Index insurance is an innovation that circumvents many of the fundamental problems that hamper the development of insurance for weather risks in lower in-come countries. With index insurance, payments are made based upon an objective and inde-pendent index that serves as a proxy for significant losses to crops, livestock, or other prop-erty. For example, the index can be based upon extreme rainfall measures that create either drought or flooding. Weather stations or even satellite imagery coupled with computer models can be used to create reliable...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Index insurance; Financial innovation for the poor; Weather insurance; Correlated risk; Poverty trap; Ex ante risk managemen; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44733

Influence of aggregation level on yield risk measures
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kobus,   Pawel.
The paper is dedicated to the relationship of data aggregation level and yield variability. For that purpose yields of the major crop plants in Poland are analysed i.e.: winter wheat, triticale, rye, barley, oat, mixed cereals, rape and sugar beet. The research are based on data from Polish FADN from years 2004 – 2009. The samples’ size ranged from 531 to 2893, depending on the plant crop. In the paper six levels of data aggregation are examined, that is: farm, district, powiat1, voivodship, region and country. It was found out that the degree of yield variability reduction (observed with data aggregation) is crop specific. Nevertheless, the relationship between aggregation level and yield variability can be approximated by the same formula for all of the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Yield risk; Aggregation level; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114712

Insecurity of Property Rights and Matching in the Tenancy Market
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Macours,   Karen.
This paper analyzes the functioning of land rental markets in the Dominican Republic using a new data set collected specifically to characterize the entire market. We analyze the choice of the landlords and the tenants in the search for the optimal partner. We show how insecure property rights leads to segmentation in the tenancy markets along socio-economic group and hence severely limits access to land for the rural poor.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Insecurity of property rights; Land markets; Matching; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24931

RISK MANAGEMENT THROUGH INSURANCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL EXTERNALITIES FROM AGRICULTURAL INPUT USE: AN ITALIAN CASE STUDY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Capitanio,   Fabian.
The biological nature of agricultural production processes induce a higher degree of uncertainty surrounding the economic performance of farm enterprises. This has contributed to the development and acceptance of forms of public intervention aimed at reducing income variability that have no parallel in other sectors of the economy. In particular, subsidized crop insurance are a widely used tool. The impact of these programs on the decisions of production generates effects on input use, land use and thus, indirectly, environmental outcomes. The importance of this issue has grown in parallel with the growth in importance of the collective role of agriculture sector that has addressed the recent guidelines adopted by many developed countries. To examine the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Risk Management; Crop Insurance; Input Use Decisions; Environmental Externalities; Mathematical Programming.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Q10; Q14.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44834

Get a GRIP: Should Area Revenue Coverage Be Offered through the Farm Bill or as a Crop Insurance Program?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Paulson,   Nicholas D.; Babcock,   Bruce A.
The successful expansion of the U.S. crop insurance program has not eliminated ad hoc disaster assistance. An alternative currently being explored by members of Congress and others in preparation of the 2007 farm bill is to simply remove the "ad hoc" part of disaster assistance programs by creating a standing program that would automatically funnel aid to hard-hit regions and crops. One form such a program could take can be found in the area yield and area revenue insurance programs currently offered by the U.S. crop insurance program. The Group Risk Plan (GRP) and Group Risk Income Protection (GRIP) programs automatically trigger payments when county yields or revenues, respectively, fall below a producer-elected coverage level. The per-acre taxpayer...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Area revenue insurance; Commodity programs; Crop insurance; Group Risk Income Protection; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18333

RISK EFFICIENT PERENNIAL CROP SELECTION: A MOTAD APPROACH TO CITRUS PRODUCTION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Teague,   Paul W.; Lee,   John G.
Numerous studies have analyzed annual crop mix decisions in light of producer risk preferences.  Few studies have focused on perennial crop mix decisions. This study attempts to identify not only the optimal mix of grapefruit and oranges for various risk-aversion levels, but also optimal planting densities within each species.  Experimental plot data from a grapefruit and orange spacing trial over the 1970-82 period were used in MOTAD formulation to address optimal perennial crop mix and planting density decisions under different capital constraints.  An examination of results suggests crop mix and planting density diversification within and across species of citrus as a means of reducing income variability.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1988
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29271

DETERMINING FIRM-SPECIFIC VALUES FOR RISKY INVESTMENTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Atwood,   Joseph A.
This article demonstrates that the usefulness of time-state contingent investment evaluation models need not be constrained by limited time-state contingent markets. Dual solutions to stochastic programs can be used to obtain firm-specific values for risky investments while allowing linear dependence between initial values and later time-state contingent income-technical coefficients. The model could be useful when the exogenous a priori determination of appropriate (and project-specific) risk-adjusted discount rates and/or certainty equivalents is difficult or when the cash equivalents of noncash investment effects are difficult to estimate.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1990
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32067

Portfolio Choice with Uncertain Consumption Prices: a mean-variance approch
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Berck,   Peter; Cecchetti,   Stephen G.
This paper presents a mean-variance model of portfolio choice and asset pricing when the price of consumption goods as well as the return to assets is uncertain. The  correlation of an assets return with purchases at expected prices is shown to reduce both the mean return and the variance of the return of an asset. A numerical  approximation is computed to check the accuracy of the mean and variance approximation. Uncertainty of consumption prices is shown to result in long (or speculative) futures holding.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Consumption; Investments; Prices; Risk; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1980
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37852

Predicting Consumer Risk Aversions to Synthetic Pesticide Residues: A Logistic Analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Govindasamy,   Ramu; Italia,   John; Adelaja,   Adesoji O.
Growing concerns about pesticide residues in fresh produce could result in increased demand for low-input agriculture with reduced pesticide residues, and decreased demand for conventional fresh produce. The objective of this study was to empirically evaluate consumer concern about pesticide residues and analyze the effect of sociodemographic factors on pesticide residue concern. Two separate surveys were used to provide data about consumer risk perceptions and demographic characteristics. Statistical models using data from both surveys show that females are approximately 9 to 14 percent more likely to be risk averse toward pesticides than males. Furthermore, both surveys indicate that households with children are more likely to be risk averse than those...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36740

WOOL PRICE STABILISATION AND PROFIT RISK FOR WOOL USERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Quiggin,   John C.
It has often been suggested that more stable wool prices would lead to an outward shift in the long-run demand for wool. To assess this claim it is necessary to examine different sources of risk and instability in wool prices and their impact on the risk borne by wool users. A model is presented in which the input and output decisions of a wool processor are related to interactions between the wool and yarn markets. It is concluded that, if fluctuations in final demand or exchange rates are the major sources of instability, the long-run effect of stabilising prices is to increase the risk faced by wool users and reduce that faced by wool growers.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1983
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22823

PRICE RISK MANAGEMENT IN WHITE CORN PRODUCTION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pritchett,   James G.; Li,   Lining.
White corn garners a premium over commodity corn, but suffers from additional price risk and yield drag.  Using a simple bootstrap procedure, this research considers whether white corn premiums compensate for yield drag and evaluates the relative merits of various pre-harvest marketing alternatives including contracts, cross hedges, and cash sales.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36646

Contribution to an Integrated Analytical Framework for the Study of the Relations between and within Agro-Food Firms
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zanasi,   Cesare; Rota,   Cosimo.
The globalization of markets, increased specialization in customers services, shorter lead times, are among the main factors influencing the change in firms organization. The firms disintegration is growing, leading to an increased demand for collaborative management along the supply chain. The relationship between economic agents represents a central aspect to be analysed in order to understand this new context which is “neither a perfectly planned structure, nor a merely spontaneous one” (Benassi M., 1995). These considerations are particularly interesting when applied to firms belonging to the agrofood system. They include very different technical-economic typologies as well as cultural and managerial backgrounds. In this context the role of vertical...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59180

A TWO-SHOCK MODEL OF THE IMPACT OF CROP INSURANCE ON INPUT USE: ANALYTIC AND SIMULATION RESULTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Liu,   Yanyan; Black,   J. Roy.
By altering the probability distribution of farm income, crop insurance programs affect farmer's input use decision. Ramaswami's  (1993) one-shock model analyzed the effect of the crop insurance on single input use by allowing the randomness of yield while keeping price constant in revenue determination. The total effect of actuarially fair insurance on input use was decomposed into risk reduction effect and moral hazard effect, and the directions of the two effects were examined. He showed that the total impact of actuarially fair crop insurance on input use was a) to reduce it if the input was risk decreasing and b) indeterminate if the input was risk increasing. However, the evidence from previous empirical work has been mixed. Horowitz and Lichtenberg...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19947

Measurement of Farm Credit Risk: SUR Model and Simulation Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Yan,   Yan; Barry,   Peter J.; Paulson,   Nicholas D.; Schnitkey,   Gary D.
The study addresses problems in measuring credit risk under the structure model, and then proposes a seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR) to predict farms’ ability in meeting their current and anticipated obligations in the next 12 months. The empirical model accounts for both the dependence structure and the dynamic feature of the structure model, and is used for estimating asset correlation using FBFM data for 1995-2004. Farm credit risk is then predicted by copula based simulation process with historical default rates as benchmark. Results are reported and compared to previous studies on farm default.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Credit Risk Measurement; Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model; Simulation; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49222

Price volatility and accuracy of price risk measurement depending on methods and data aggregation: The case of wheat prices in the EU countries
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Figiel,   Szczepan; Hamulczuk,   Mariusz; Klimkowski,   Cezary.
In this paper we use weekly milling wheat price series for nine selected EU countries to evaluate levels and components of volatility in the period from July 2004 to April 2011 and to examine how sensitive the results can be to spatial aggregation of the price data. The prices were analyzed in levels and logarithmic rate of returns. To asses price risk, apart from basic measures of price variability, the price series were decomposed using multiplicative model in order to determine shares of seasonal and random components in the total variance of the prices. We also applied ARMAX model to separate the stochastic components of the price series to properly evaluate real price risk exposure and tested for ARCH and GARCH effects. We found considerable...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Wheat prices; Volatility; Price risk; Data aggregation; Risk and Uncertainty; C22.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122549

Measuring Risk Attitude and Relation to Marketing Behavior
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Franken,   Jason R.V.; Pennings,   Joost M.E.; Garcia,   Philip.
Researchers employ various measures of risk attitudes to investigate their relation to market behavior with mixed results. We find that a higher-order global risk attitude construct, developed using survey scales and experiments based on expected utility theory, is related to several marketing alternatives, but does not exhibit substantially greater explanatory power than underlying measures. With few exceptions, scales yield greater significance of risk attitudes for these choices, but experimental measures reveal other insights, e.g., differential attitudes in gain and loss domains. Given recent concerns with experimental measures in the literature, we suggest studies include scales as a low cost supplemental measure.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk behavior; Risk attitude; Futures and options; Forward contracts; Marketing contracts; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124471

Late Planting Decisions with Crop Insurance: Decision Guidelines for Michigan Farmers in Spring 2011
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Betz,   Roger; Schweikhardt,   David B.; Black,   J. Roy; Hilker,   James H.
Michigan has had unusually wet planting conditions in 2011, leading to substantial acreage that has not been planted at this late date. Farmers who purchased crop insurance have many options available to them. This paper addresses the major crop insurance decisions that farmers will face during the next 30 days.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Prevented planting; Risk management; Farm management; Corn returns; Soybean returns; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108905

Grain Contracting Strategies to Induce Delivery and Performance in Volatile Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wilson,   William W.; Dahl,   Bruce L.
One of the impacts of higher prices along with greater volatility in futures and basis is that there is pressure for an escalation in cash contracting for grain. This volatility has resulted in an unprecedented level of contracting with growers in recent years. There is a wide array of cash contracts with varying terms. There is also a growing realization of growers not delivering on contracts, in part due to escalation in postcontract prices. These are evolving as major strategic issues for buyers and the marketing system, particularly as buyers seek to use such contracting strategies as an element of risk mitigation. There are three purposes of this article. First is to provide a broad survey of contract terms used in grain contracting with growers....
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Grain contracting; Risk; Volatility; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; C15; D81; Q12.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53082

The Effect of Risk Presentation on Product Valuation: An Experimental Analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nayga,   Rodolfo M., Jr.; Shaw,   W. Douglass; Silva,   Andres.
We examine how people might evaluate a product with novel attribute, given various kinds of risk information.  Using a product with healthful benefits, we assess subjects'’ willingness to pay given various kinds of health risk information conveying reduced health risks, life tradeoffs, and ambiguity.  Four treatments in separate non-hypothetical experimental auctions are used to elicit willingness to pay values.  Results suggest that willingness to pay vary across the groups that receive differing risk information.  Specifically, willingness to pay was higher for the group that was given clear risk information and questions related to life tradeoffs than for the group given ambiguous risk information.  Willingness to pay was lowest for the group that was...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21429

MODELLING THE DYNAMICS OF PRODUCTION ADJUSTMENT TO SHORT-TERM MARKET SHOCKS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Niemi,   Jarkko K.; Lehtonen,   Heikki.
Models of agricultural economics typically operate at an annual basis or in a static equilibrium framework where inputs, outputs and their prices may change considerably. Production dynamics, however, imply that models relying on spatial and temporal aggregation do not capture the effects of biological constraints in the short run. This paper examines short and long-term impacts of demand and production cost shocks in the pig sector. The analysis is carried out with a dynamic programming model which takes into account changes in export and domestic demand and market clearing price. It optimizes the supply of piglets on a monthly basis. Econometric techniques are used to estimate demand functions. Short-term negative market shocks can already have...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Pig; Demand; Dynamic programming; Export; Livestock epidemics; Price; Supply; Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6401

Management of Volatility in the Grain Market
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Guenther-Luebbers,   Welf; Henke,   Soren; Theuvsen,   Ludwig.
Food prices have steadily risen since the 1990s, and price were especially volatile in the years 2008 and 2010. This trend has also been reflected in the European grain market, which presents all European companies along the food value chain with new challenges. This paper focuses on the impacts of increased price volatility on the grain market. Furthermore, it describes and evaluates government interventions attempting to reduce this volatility. At the same time, it describes and assesses private management methods of dealing with price volatility. In this article, we provide an opportunity to understand how the European cereals market evolved to reach its present state and suggest future possible price assurance systems, such as insurance for the basic...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Management; Volatility; Grain Market; Risk and Uncertainty; Q 10; Q12; Q14; Q 17; Q 18.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122548

MANAGING YIELD RISK THROUGH A COOPERATIVE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zeuli,   Kimberly A.; Skees,   Jerry R.
Developing new risk management products for all agricultural commodities has increased in importance given recent legislation. Vegetables have been difficult to insure. This paper investigates the use of index contracts for growers belonging to a Kentucky vegetable cooperative.  Index contracts should be significantly more efficient than current crop insurance alternatives.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20736

Advanced Biofuel Production in Louisiana Sugar Mills: an Application of Real Options Analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Darby,   Paul M.; Mark,   Tyler B.; Detre,   Joshua D.; Salassi,   Michael E.
In order to more fully study the risks and uncertainty involved in cellulosic ethanol production, we examine a simulated plant in South Louisiana using Real Options Analysis
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Real options; Risk; Uncertainty; Cellulosic ethanol; Energy cane; Sorghum; Bagasse; Simulation; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Production Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q42; Q14; Q16; D81; G31.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103747

Characterizing Distributions of Class III Milk Prices: Implications for Risk Management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wang,   Dabin; Tomek,   William G.
Descriptive statistics and time-series econometric models are used to characterize the behavior of monthly fluid milk prices.  Prices in April, May and June appear to be more variable than those in subsequent months, and the spring-time prices are perhaps skewed.  Econometric models can capture the historical behavior of spot prices, but forecasts converge to the marginal distribution of the sample prices in about six months.  Futures prices for Class III milk have the expected time-to-maturity effect and converge to the respective monthly distributions of the cash prices at contract maturity (as they must, since the contracts are cash settled).  Thus, econometric models and futures quotes provide similar information about price behavior at contract...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Hedging; Marketing strategies; Milk futures; Milk prices; Risk management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19322

NATURAL HAZARDS AND RISK AVERSION: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM LATIN AMERICA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: van den Berg,   Marrit; Fort,   Ricardo; Burger,   Kees.
We use experimental and survey data from two natural-hazard prone countries in Latin America to test the hypothesis that natural hazards affect risk aversion. We use two methods to measure risk aversion: simple questions on the willingness to pay for a hypothetical lottery and more complicated experiments involving real pay-offs. We find that whereas the experiments provide reasonable estimates of risk aversion, the hypothetical questions result in unrealistic distributions of preferences. The experimental results strongly support the hypothesis that experiencing natural shocks makes people more risk averse, not only in the short run but also in the medium and long run.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Latin America; Nicaragua; Peru; Risk aversion; Natural hazards; Experiments; Environmental Economics and Policy; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51394

CHANCE CONSTRAINED PROGRAMMING MODELS FOR RISK-BASED ECONOMIC AND POLICY ANALYSIS OF SOIL CONSERVATION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zhu,   Minkang; Taylor,   Daniel B.; Sarin,   Subhash C.; Kramer,   Randall A.
The random nature of soil loss under alternative land-use practices should be an important consideration of soil conservation planning and analysis under risk.  Chance constrained programming models can provide information on the trade-offs among pre-determined tolerance levels of soil loss, probability levels of satisfying the tolerance levels, and economic profits or losses resulting from soil conservation to soil conservation policy makers.  When using chance constrained programming models, the distribution of factors being constrained must be evaluated.  If random variables follow a log-normal distribution, the normality assumption, which is generally used in the chance constrained programming models, can bias the results.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1994
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31324

CREATING AGRIBUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES FOR SMALL SCALE FARMERS IN THABA NCHU BY INTRODUCING WATER HARVESTING TECHNIQUES: A PROFITABILITY AND RISK ANALYSIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Baiphethi,   Mompati N.; Viljoen,   Machiel F.; Kundhlande,   Godfrey.
Thaba Nchu is a semi-arid area with low and erratic annual rainfall not exceeding 600mm. Various dryland crops are produced with relatively low yields and high risk of failure. Lack of appropriate technology and other constraints has led to most of the arable land being unused thus restricting agribusiness opportunities in an area where unemployment and food insecurity are thriving.  Rainwater harvesting has a huge potential to increase crop yields in Thaba Nchu and reduce the risk of losses, and thus improve food security and enhance sustainability. Different in-field rainwater harvesting (IRWH) techniques have been tested and applied at Glen and Thaba Nchu. This paper gives comparative results for three crops produced with regard to relative...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19076

Accounting for Respondent Uncertainty to Improve Willingness-to-Pay Estimates
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Moore,   Rebecca; Bishop,   Richard C.; Provencher,   Bill; Champ,   Patricia A.
In this paper we develop an econometric model of willingness to pay that integrates data on respondent uncertainty regarding their own willingness to pay. The integration is utility consistent and does not involve calibrating the contingent responses to actual payment data, and so the approach can “stand alone”. In an application to a valuation study related to whooping crane restoration, we find that this model generates a statistically lower expected WTP than the standard CV model. Moreover, the WTP function estimated with this model is not statistically different from that estimated using actual payment data, suggesting that when properly analyzed using data on respondent uncertainty, contingent valuation decisions can simulate actual payment decisions....
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92233

MODELLING ECONOMIC ALTERNATIVES FOR TOBACCO PRODUCERS: THE CASE OF SHEEP FARMING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tzouramani,   Irene; Karanikolas,   Pavlos; Alexopoulos,   George; Sintori,   Alexandra; Liontakis,   Angelos E.
After the introduction of the new tobacco regime, many regions in Greece, formerly specialized in tobacco cultivation, are now facing serious threats of economic and social decline. Sheep farming is considered by many analysts as a viable alternative to tobacco. This study analyses the financial performance of sheep production and the risk that producers are taking. Through a stochastic efficiency analysis with respect to a function we explore the economic viability of conventional and organic sheep farming; key factors determining the economic outcome of these activities are also investigated. Both organic and conventional sheep farming appear as viable alternatives. The viability of organic farming lies, mainly, in organic payments. Conventional farming...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Organic farming; Dairy sheep; Risk analysis; SERF; Agricultural policy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6695

POTENCIALIDADE DO SEGURO RURAL NO BRASIL
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jardim,   Ana Lucia Carvalho; Ferreira,   Leo da Rocha.
O objetivo desta comunicação é relatar o andamento de uma pesquisa que visa avaliar a eficiência econômica de programas de seguro rural no contexto brasileiro, usando como base o atual projeto do governo de criação do Fundo de Catástrofe. A potencialidade do seguro rural no Brasil é discutida e avaliada tendo como pano de fundo a atual política agrícola brasileira, fundamentada principalmente no incentivo ao crédito rural. A intenção é verificar a eficiência dos gastos do governo com as políticas voltadas ao setor agropecuário. Neste sentido, são apresentadas e discutidas as experiências internacionais que se utilizam o seguro rural ao produtor, em detrimento dos subsídios diretos ao crédito. O artigo conclui que o Fundo de Catástrofe poderá permitir não...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Seguro rural; Política agrícola; Fundo de catástrofe; Crop insurance; Agricultural policy; Catastrophic fund; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/109766

Análise de risco de sistemas de produção de suínos, integrado e independente, em períodos de alta e baixa rentabilidade
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rocha,   Denis Teixeira da; Moura,   Altair Dias de; Girotto,   Ademir Francisco.
This research analyzed the integrated and independent systems of pork production in Brazil, using multiple case studies, which focused on confined and complete-cycle producing units of swines, in the high and low profits periods of the activity. The study focused on the pork production of the State of Santa Catarina (SC), Brazilian’s greatest producer of swines, and presenting the predominance of integrated production, and on the Vale do Piranga (MG) region, one of the main Brazilian regions of the independent production system. The work analyzed the yield of the two systems of pork production through the analysis of the performance of each system in different scenarios. The costs and incomes (economic efficiency) of six producing pork farms, in which...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk; Production system; Pork production; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54593

Informal Insurance in the Presence of Poverty Traps: Evidence from Southern Ethiopia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Santos,   Paulo; Barrett,   Christopher B.
Fieldwork for this paper was conducted under the Pastoral Risk Management (PARIMA) project of the Global Livestock Collaborative Research Support Program (GL CRSP), funded by the Office of Agriculture and Food Security, Global Bureau, USAID, under grant number DAN-1328-G-00-0046-00, and analysis was underwritten by the USAID SAGA cooperative agreement, grant number HFM-A-00-01-00132-00. Financial support was also provided by the Social Science Research Council's Program in Applied Economics on Risk and Development (through a grant from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation), The Pew Charitable Trusts (through the Christian Scholars Program of the University of Notre Dame), the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (Portugal), and the Graduate...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Informal insurance; Social networks; Poverty traps; Ethiopia; Risk and Uncertainty; Z13; I3; O13.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25487

Savings and technology choice for risk averse farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Brennan,   Donna C.
Farmers in developing countries have limited opportunities for borrowing to even out variability associated with risky farm income, but they can save. A dynamic programming model of savings is presented in the current paper which examines optimal savings strategies for farmers, using a case study of integrated rice-shrimp farms in Vietnam. It is shown that when savings are accounted for, the expected utility ranking of different risky farm choices may not differ that much between farmers with different levels of risk aversion.
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118593

Inequities in Flood Management Protection Outcomes
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sarmiento,   Camilo; Miller,   Ted E.
Knowledge of low-income issues in floodplain management is spotty. Repeated flooding resulting from hurricanes striking North Carolina, and most recently Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, has raised concerns that vulnerable low-income communities may be more exposed to the devastating costs of flooding. This issue has been covered in the popular press but to date has received only modest attention in the academic literature. Shilling et al. (1989) and Browne and Hoyt (2000) evaluated insurance penetration for low income inhabitants. In this paper, we explore the relation of poverty and flood risk in a stratified sample of Census blocks located in special flood hazard areas (SFHAs).
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21042

Trust and attitude in consumer food choices under risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Graffeo,   Michele; Savadori,   Lucia; Lombardi,   Luigi; Tentori,   Katya; Bonini,   Nicolao; Rumiati,   Rino.
In this paper, attitude and trust are studied in the context of a food scare (dioxin) with the aim of identifying the components of attitude and trust that significantly affect how purchases are determined. A revised version of the model by MAYER et al. (1995) was tested for two types of food: salmon and chicken. The final model for salmon shows that trust is significantly determined by perceived competence, perceived shared values, truthfulness of information and the experiential attitude (the feeling that consuming salmon is positive), but trust has no impact on behavioural intentions. Consumer preferences seem to be determined by a positive experiential attitude and the perception that breeders, sellers and institutions have values similar to those of...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Trust; Trust antecedents; Attitude; Food scare; Purchase intention; Consumer/Household Economics; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97499

FINANCING NATURAL DISASTER RISK USING CHARITY CONTRIBUTIONS AND EX ANTE INDEX INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Goes,   Anne; Skees,   Jerry R.
The scale of loss from natural disasters in low-income countries often exceeds the resources of internal and external sources of relief funding.  Catastrophe bonds offer the opportunity to transfer the risk of low-probability, high-loss events to the capital market where there is greater capacity to absorb disaster losses.  This paper details some problems inherent in traditional sources of disaster relief and proposes an alternative mechanism for catastrophe risk transfer that unites financial innovations and donor communities.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22188

Measuring producer welfare under output price uncertainty and risk non-neutrality
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bullock,   David S.; Garcia,   Philip; Shin,   Kie-Yup.
Procedures to measure the producer welfare effects of changes in an output price distribution under uncertainty are reviewed. Theory and numerical integration methods are combined to show how for any form of Marshallian risk-responsive supply, compensating variation of a change in higher moments of an output price distribution can be derived numerically. The numerical procedure enables measurement of producer welfare effects in the many circumstances in which risk and uncertainty are important elements. The practical ease and potential usefulness of the procedure is illustrated by measuring the producer welfare effects of USA rice policy.
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Price uncertainty; Risk non-neutrality; Welfare economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118434

Risk and Nitrogen Application Decisions in Florida Potato Production
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Asci,   Serhat; Borisova,   Tatiana; VanSickle,   John J.; Zotarelli,   Lincoln.
This study focuses on development of agricultural best management practices (BMPs) for potato production areas in Northeast Florida, and presents the results of the initial situation assessment. BMP implementation is the primary strategy used by agencies and farmers to improve the efficiency and to ensure environmental sustainability of agricultural production. Although BMPs are defined as “economically feasible” and “cost-effective”, economic analysis conducted as a part of BMP development has been limited, leaving the room for disagreement about economic impacts of specific BMPs. As a part of the situation assessment, we used interviews, group discussions, a survey, and a field trip to collect information about farmers’ production practices and to...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Florida potato production; Partial budget analysis; Risk analysis; Best management practice; Nitrogen fertilization; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119797

Agricultural Profits and Farm Household Wealth: A Farm-level Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sections
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Blank,   Steven C.; Erickson,   Kenneth W.; Nehring,   Richard F.; Hallahan,   Charles B.
This study examines the relationship between agricultural profits and farm household wealth across locations and farm sizes in U.S. agriculture. A multiperiod household model is used to develop hypotheses for testing. Results indicate that farmland has out-performed nonfarm investments over the past decade. Thus, households may want to keep their farmland to build wealth, even if it requires them to earn off-farm income. The analysis implies that decision will be made based on farm household wealth factors having little to do with agriculture.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm household; Off-farm income; Production profits; Wealth; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q14.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48749

FARM RISK POLICY AT A CROSSROAD
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Coble,   Keith H.
Legislatively mandated declines in government program payments have coincided with sharp declines in most major crop commodity prices. Thus, a debate has begun about the direction of future farm policy. The debate has been largely expressed in terms of a "safety net" for producers. This paper address several economic issues associated with proposals to enhance the agricultural "safety net."  The case is made that crop insurance reform cannot satisfy the desire for above-market price supports. Characteristics required for an insurable risk are discussed, as are the interactions between public and private risk-management tools.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Crop insurance; Risk; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14704

A Two Stage Model of the Demand For Specialty Crop Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Richards,   Timothy J.
Proposals for reform of the federal multiple-peril crop insurance program for specialty crops seek to change fees for catastrophic (CAT) insurance from a nominal fifty-dollar per contract registration fee to an actuarially sound premium. Growers argue that this would cause a significant reduction in participation rates, thus impeding the program's goals of eventually obviating the need for ad hoc disaster payments and worsening the actuarial soundness of the program. The key policy issue is, therefore, empirical one - whether the demand for specialty crop insurance is elastic or inelastic. Previous studies of this issue using either grower or county-level field crop data typically treat the participation problem as either a discrete insure / don't insure...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: California; Crop insurance; Discrete/continuous choice; Grapes; Multinomial logit.; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28546

Selected Paper Abstracts, Annual Meetings
Provedor de dados: 31
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Consumer/Household Economics; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; International Relations/Trade; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53104

Market-Based Instruments for the Optimal Control of Invasive Insect Species: B. Tabaci in Arizona
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Richards,   Timothy J.; Ellsworth,   Peter; Tronstad,   Russell; Naranjo,   Steve.
Invasive insect species represent perhaps one of the most significant potential sources of economic risk to U.S. agricultural production.  Private control of invasive insect species is likely to be insufficient due to negative externality and weaker-link public good problems.  In this study, we compare a system of Pigouvian taxes with tradable permits for invasive species control.  While the emissions control literature shows that taxes are preferred to permits under cost uncertainty, invasive species control involves correlated cost and benefit uncertainty, so we expect a quantity-based system to be preferred.  Monte Carlo simulations of optimal steady-state outcomes confirm our expectations.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Externalities; Invasive species; Optimal control; Permits; Spatial-temporal model; Taxes.; Environmental Economics and Policy; Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; H23; L51; Q28; Q57.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61189

Decoupled Payments to EU Farmers, Production, and Trade: An Economic Analysis for Germany
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: von Witzke,   Harald; Noleppa,   Steffen; Schwarz,   Gerald.
After an extended process of reform the European Union has introduced direct payments to farmers which are decoupled from production decisions as a central element of its Common Agricultural Policy. They are also referred to as Single Farm Payments. In this paper we analyze the production and trade effects of this policy and its compatibility with WTO international trade rules. A survey of the literature suggests that the system of direct payments in its present form has effects which are analogous to a subsidization of agricultural land. Thus, they act to increase production and trade. Furthermore we quantify the total economic cost of production of selected commodities in the European Union and compare them to the price at which EU production is sold in...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: European Union; Common Agricultural Policy; WTO rules; Decoupled payments; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Security and Poverty; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59853

IMPORTANCE, CAUSES, AND MANAGEMENT RESPONSES TO FARM RISKS: EVIDENCE FROM FLORIDA AND ALABAMA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Boggess,   William G.; Anaman,   Kwabena A.; Hanson,   Gregory D.
Despite the contention that risk and uncertainty play an important role in agriculture in North Florida and South Alabama, very little is known about producers' perceptions of risk. This paper describes the procedures used and the results obtained from a statistically random survey of farmers' perceptions of the importance of various sources of risk and alternative risk management practices. Initially, farmers were asked to define risk and then to rank various sources of risk and management responses to risk based on the relative importance of each to their operation. Summary statistics, Chi-squares analyses, and logistic regression techniques were used to analyze the data.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1985
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29992

Food Risks and Type I &amp; II Errors
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nganje,   William E.; Skilton,   Paul F.
The IFAMR is published by (IFAMA) the International Food and Agribusiness Management Review. www.ifama.org
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Food safety; Food defense; Error based disruption; Control oriented supply networks; Agribusiness; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Risk and Uncertainty; Q130.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119977

Planning an Integrated Approach to Farm Risk Management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Eidman,   Vernon R.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1985
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59806

MEASUREMENT OF PRICE RISK IN REVENUE INSURANCE:  IMPLICATIONS OF DISTRIBUTIONAL ASSUMPTIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Goodwin,   Barry K.; Roberts,   Matthew C.; Coble,   Keith H.
A variety of crop revenue insurance programs have recently been introduced. A critical component of revenue insurance contracts is quantifying the risk associated with stochastic prices. Forward-looking, market-based measures of price risk which are often available in form of options premia are preferable. Because such measures are not available for every crop, some current revenue insurance programs alternatively utilize historical price data to construct measures of price risk. This study evaluates the distributional implications of alternative methods for estimating price risk and deriving insurance premium rates. A variety of specification tests are employed to evaluate distributional assumptions. Conditional heteroskedasticity models are used to...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30830

ACTUARIAL EFFECTS OF UNIT STRUCTURE IN THE U.S. ACTUAL PRODUCTION HISTORY CROP INSURANCE PROGRAM
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Knight,   Thomas O.; Coble,   Keith H.
This paper examines the effects of optional subdivision on APHP losses for wheat, corn, and soybeans.  Thirty-seven state/crop programs are analyzed and the implications of the results are discussed in relation to newly developed crop and revenue insurance programs.  The results illustrate the importance of incorporating actuarial experience into the premium rate structure and contract provisions of an insurance program.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Actual Production History Program (APHP); Crop insurance programs; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15150

Optimal Design of Weather Bonds
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Xu,   Wei; Odening,   Martin; Musshoff,   Oliver.
Replaced with revised version of paper 06/17/08.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Weather risk; Weather bonds; Reinsurance; Securitisation; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6781

Herbicide Application Rates: Risk Premiums with Environmental Implications
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Massey,   Raymond E.
This paper examines the role of risk aversion in setting herbicide label rates and application rates. Companies establish label rates to be efficacious for a wide range of conditions. The use of reduced rates of herbicide offer the opportunity to increase farm profit and reduce herbicide use, an environmental benefit.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35261

Economic Impact of Crop Insurance on the North Dakota State Economy
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Leatham,   David J.; Jones,   Lonnie L.; Crane,   Laurence M.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1997
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35853

Testing Day’s Conjecture that More Nitrogen Decreases Crop Yield Skewness
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Du,   Xiaodong; Hennessy,   David A.; Yu,   Cindy L.
While controversy surrounds skewness attributes of typical yield distributions, a better understanding is important for agricultural policy assessment and for crop insurance rate setting. Day (1965) conjectured that crop yield skewness declines with an increase in low levels of nitrogen use, but higher levels have no effect. In a theoretical model based on the law of the minimum (von Liebig) technology, we find conditions under which Day’s conjecture applies. Employing four experimental plot datasets, we investigate the conjecture by introducing (a) a flexible Bayesian extension of the Just-Pope technology to incorporate skewness, and (b) a quantile-based measure of skewness shift. For corn yields, the Bayesian estimation provides strong evidence in favor...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Gibbs sampler; Just and Pope technology; Negative skewness; Quantile regression.; Crop Production/Industries; Political Economy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93471

Effects of No-Tillage Production Practices on Crop Yields as Influenced by Crop and Growing Environment Factors
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Toliver,   Dustin K.; Larson,   James A.; English,   Burton C.; Roberts,   Roland K.; Torre Ugarte,   Daniel de la; West,   Tristram O.
This paper evaluated differences between yields of no-tillage compared to conventional or reduced tillage and their associated downside risk. Six crops were evaluated along with how those yields and risks differed by various environmental factors such geographic location, precipitation, soil type and how long the practice had been used.
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation
Palavras-chave: No-tillage; Conservation; Conventional tillage; Downside-risk; Yield; Agribusiness; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98818

Niche Agribusiness Supply Chains and the Channel Coordinator’s Role in their Creation and Management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Patterson,   Alastair; Martin,   Sandra; Mollenkopf,   Diane A.
The role of the channel coordinator and the structure of their supply chains are critical to the success of a supply chain that produces a product targeted at a specific market niche. Without the management of the channel coordinator, focussed on delivering a product with specific attributes to the target niche, the supply chain will be incapable of working in concert and creating a cohesive product offering. The supply chain structure is critical to this process. Although these two concepts are often mentioned in the supply chain and associated literature, and despite their importance, there is very little empirical evidence that shows the linkage between the channel coordinator and the supply chain structure. This paper is based on the analysis of five...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Channel coordinator; Supply chain structure; Niche markets; New Zealand meat industry; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Industrial Organization; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98512

Risk, Information, and Trust in the Food Chain: Factors Explaining Consumer Willingness to Pay
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Latvala,   Terhi.
This paper analysed factors contributing to consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for increased quality information. The empirical scope of the study was restricted to beef, because the beef labelling system enables reliable tracing of quality attributes. The results showed that consumer perceptions of specific risks in food partly explain their WTP. Also negative experiences heard from other people increased the probability of WTP. Trust seems to be extremely significant factor in WTP models. This study implies that the majority of the respondents trust the food safety authorities and the co‐operation of all stakeholders in the food chain.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk; Trust; Information; Beef; Willingness to pay.; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Industrial Organization; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101282

Modeling Risk Behavior of Agricultural Production in Chinese Small Households
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lu,   Wencong C.; Xi,   Aiqin; Ye,   Jian.
This paper analyzed Chinese small-scale farmer's response to agricultural risks by using MOTAD model. Based on the household's data from the two villages Wangjia and Damao in Zhejiang province, we established "representative rural household" for each of the sampling villages. The results show that farmers in Zhejiang are quite sensitive to agricultural risks. However, different farming systems, the ratio of agricultural income to total family income, as well as the size of arable land, differentiates their risk response. The decision maker's risk preference not only affects the type of agricultural activities and corresponding scales they selected, but also have further effects on the micro agricultural production structure and stable growth of household's...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farming household; Agricultural risks; Risk response; MOTAD Model; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; D1; C6; D2.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25656

Risk aversion in a dynamic trading game
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Karp,   Larry S.
The effect of risk aversion on Nash equilibrium trade restrictions is studied using numerical methods. An increase in a nation's level of risk aversion can lead to either an increase or decrease in its equilibrium restriction and either an increase or decrease in its rival's restriction. The linear quadratic dynamic game is generalized to include risk aversion.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1986
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6096

Dynamic Analysis of Land Prices with Flexible Risk Aversion Coefficients
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Xu,   Jin; Leatham,   David J.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61872

Market Risk and Volatility in the Brazilian Stock Market
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Yoshino,   Joe Akira.
We estimate in this paper the market risk implied by the prices of different options traded in the Brazilian stock market. The fundamental theory to handle this problem is the one implied by the Arrow-Debreu contingent claim concept. Using that theory, we are able to construct the term structure of market risk, and to obtain a surface that provides slices for a particular “volatility smile.” The methodology that we use follows the one proposed by Shimko (1993), which is able to calculate a non-lognormal probability density function (PDF) consistent with the volatility observed in a relatively small sample of option prices. This methodology goes beyond the one proposed originally by Black and Scholes (1973), since it does not require log-normality of the...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Arrow-Debreu contingent claim; Options; Black-Scholes; Market risk; Volatility; Brazilian stock market; Risk and Uncertainty; Marketing; G12; G13.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44000

Spatial and Temporal On-Farm Risk Management - Crop Production Scheduling and Index Insurance Strategies
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lin,   Shanshan; Mullen,   Jeffrey D.; Hoogenboom,   Gerrit.
An agronomic crop growth model, Decision Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer (DSSAT), is used to find optimal crop management strategies for cotton production in Mitchell, Miller, and Lee Counties in Georgia during the past 10 years. Planting date and irrigation threshold are the two variables optimized to maximize farmer's expected utility. A decreasing absolute risk aversion - constant relative risk aversion (DARA-CRRA) utility function is used to examine crop management decision that can be influenced by changes in inter-temporal risk behavior. Comparison is made from management perspective - one is dynamic crop management strategy that varies each year; one is static (constant) strategy over 10 years. Based on the best crop management...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Irrigation; Planting Date; Risk Management; Weather Derivative Contract; Basis Risk; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49350

Are Our Agricultural Risk Management Tools Adequate for a New Era?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Barnett,   Barry J.; Coble,   Keith H.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk; Commodity programs; Insurance; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; D80; G11; Q18.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94700

RAISE YOUR GLASS: WINE INVESTMENT AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Masset,   Philippe; Weisskopf,   Jean-Philippe.
This paper uses auction hammer prices over the period 1996-2009, with a special emphasis on periods of economic downturns, to examine risk, return and diversification benefits of fine wine. Our research shows evidence that the wine market is heterogeneous with wine regions and price categories evolving differently in terms of volume and turnover. We construct wine indices for various wine regions and prices using repeat-sales regressions and find out that fine wine yields higher returns and has a lower volatility compared to stocks especially in times of economic crises. Forming portfolios for typical investors and taking risk aversion, different financial assets and various wine indices into consideration we confirm that the addition of wine to a...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Wine; Alternative assets; Financial contagion; Portfolio diversification; Conditional CAPM; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90484

Forecasting Basis Levels in the Soybean Complex: A Comparison of Time Series Methods
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sanders,   Dwight R.; Manfredo,   Mark R.
A battery of time series methods are compared for forecasting basis levels in the soybean futures complex: soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. Specifically, nearby basis forecasts are generated with exponential smoothing techniques, autoregression moving average (ARMA), and vector autoregression (VAR) models. The forecasts are compared to those of the 5-year average, year ago, and no change methods. Using the 5-year average as the benchmark method, the forecast evaluation results suggest that alternative naive techniques may produce better forecasts, and the improvement gained by time series modeling is relatively small. In this sample, there is little evidence that the basis has become systematically more difficult to forecast in recent years.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Basis forecasts; Time series models; Soybean complex; Risk and Uncertainty; C53; Q13.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43790

Insurance preferences of smallholders : results from an adaptive conjoint analysis in Northern Vietnam
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fischer,   Isabel; Buchenrieder,   Gertrud.
Livestock plays a pivotal role for smallholder production systems in mountainous Northern Vietnam. Poor rural farm households are vulnerable and their livelihood systems are often so fragile and finely-balanced that a small misfortune can destabilize the households for many years. Economic risks, especially loss of livestock, are one of the major reasons for slipping into poverty. Normally, insurance systems could step in here. In developing countries however, insurance markets are usually underdeveloped. Empirical research reveals that raising livestock and selling it in case of a livelihood emergency is a particularly popular risk management strategy. Based on the results of a computer-based Adaptive Conjoint Analysis (ACA) with 155 responding households...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk management; Livestock insurance; Adaptive conjoint analysis (ACA); Vietnam; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92830

Intertemporal Risk Management Decisions of Farmers under Preference, Market, and Policy Dynamics
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wang,   H. Holly; Du,   Wen.
This paper adapts a generalized expected utility (GEU) maximization model (Epstein and Zin, 1989 and 1991) to examine the intertemporal risk management of wheat producers in the Pacific Northwest. Optimization results based on simulated data indicate the feasibility of the GEU optimization as a modeling framework. It further extends the GEU model by incorporating a welfare measure, the certainty equivalent, to investigate the impacts of U.S. government programs and market institutions on farmers' risk management decisions and welfare. A comparison between the GEU and other expected utility models further implies GEU has the advantage of specifying farmers' intertemporal preferences separately and completely. Impact analysis results imply that farmers'...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Generalized expected utility; Risk management; Multi-period production; Dynamic optimization; Intertemporal preference; Market institution; Government payments; Risk and Uncertainty; Q14; D9; C61.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19526

A Note on Emissions Taxes and Incomplete Information
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chavez,   Carlos A.; Stranlund,   John K.
In contrast with what we perceive is the conventional wisdom about setting emissions taxes under uncertainty, we demonstrate that setting a uniform tax equal to expected marginal damage is not generally efficient under incomplete information about firms’ abatement costs and damages from pollution.  We show that efficient taxes will deviate from expected marginal damage if there is uncertainty about the slopes of the marginal abatement costs of regulated firms. Moreover, efficient emissions tax rates will vary across firms if a regulator can use observable firm-level characteristics to gain some information about how the firms’ marginal abatement costs vary.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Emissions Taxes; Incomplete Information; Uncertainty; Environmental Economics and Policy; Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; L51; Q28.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42129

Weather, Climate, and Agricultural Disaster Payments in the Southeastern U.S.
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nadolnyak,   Denis A.; Hartarska,   Valentina M.
Direct disaster payments have been criticized as inefficient and inequitable. In this article, the impact of weather and climate, as well as economic and political variables, on crop disaster payments is analyzed using county level data from four states in the southeastern United States. The results of panel data analysis suggest that weather and climate variables explain most of the crop disaster payments at the county level while socioeconomic and political variables do not, suggesting that advancements in weather and climate forecasts could be helpful in budgeting.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Disaster assistance; Weather; ENSO; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51802

IMPLICATIONS OF EXTENDING CROP INSURANCE TO LIVESTOCK
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Babcock,   Bruce A.
Speech and PowerPoint Presentation
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32995

Impact of the New Standard Reinsurance Agreement (SRA) on Multi-Peril Crop Insurance (MPCI) Gain and Loss Probabilities
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vergara,   Oscar; Seaquist,   Jack; Zuba,   Gerhard; Harrigan,   Matthew; Lee,   Eric.
We utilize an agricultural model that uses crop/weather relationships at the county resolution and fits robust distributions that take into account the impact that weather has on crop production. Once the crop insurance policy conditions and prices are applied to the modeled county yield distributions, the portfolio gain and losses can be calculated by aggregating the gain and losses at the county level, state level, regional level and nationwide level. Portfolio losses are computed under the old and new SRA rules and regulations for comparison purposes.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: SRA; MPCI; Crop insurance; Stochastic model; Weather peril; Probabilities; Crop Production/Industries; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty; C; Q.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103282

TESTING THE VIABILITY OF AREA YIELD INSURANCE FOR COTTON AND SOYBEANS IN THE SOUTHEAST
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Deng,   Xiaohui; Barnett,   Barry J.; Vedenov,   Dmitry V.
GRP is essentially a put option on the NASS estimate of the county average yield.  Purchasers of GRP are exposed to geographic basis risk. This study uses farm- and county-level yield data to examine the viability of area yield insurance for cotton and soybean farms in the southeastern U.S.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34718

Economic Feasibility of Organic Farms and Risk Management Strategies
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Medina,   Felipe; Iglesias,   Ana.
Organic farmers must face different risks than conventional farmers Due to the special features of management of their productive system, and due to the specific characteristics of their cultivations. This study analyses the specific risks that organic farmers must manage as well as the different strategies that there are developing nowadays. Even if the Spanish farmers rely on the insurance system to manage their risks, today organic farmers do not have specific insurance products to manage them. The methodology and results presented in this study include a risk analysis carried out by evaluating statistical, probabilistic, and stochastic properties of the organic production data. We evaluate and discuss the aspects of our study that relate to other...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk management; Organic farming; Stochastic simulation; Risk strategies and agricultural insurance; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44065

U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission vs. Marketing Advisory Services, Inc.: A Case Study
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Conley,   Dennis M.
The IFAMR is the Official Journal of the International Food and Agribusiness Management Association: www.ifama.org
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk management; Lawsuit; Agricultural commodities; CFTC; Hedging; Speculation; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession; Q14.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114717

RISK RATIONING AND ACTIVITY CHOICE IN MORAL HAZARD CONSTRAINED CREDIT MARKETS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Boucher,   Stephen R.; Carter,   Michael R.
This paper explores the productivity and income distribution effects of asymmetric information and risk preferences on the credit market. A model of contract design in the presence of moral hazard is developed in which competitive, risk neutral lenders offer contracts to risk averse agents who hold the option to invest capital and labor time in an entrepreneurial activity. The model gives rise to the potential for quantity rationing and an additional form of non-price rationing called risk rationing. Both quantity and risk rationed agents would seek credit and carry out the entrepreneurial activity in a first best, or symmetric information world. When information is asymmetric, the menu of available loan contracts shrinks. In equilibrium, neither type of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12675

Modelling farm production risk with copulae instead of correlations
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Schulte-Geers,   Matthias; Berg,   Ernst.
The optimisation of production plans is an important topic in agriculture, often related to diversification and specialisation as the classical instruments of coping with production risk. Although the measurement of embedded risk is often inaccurate, it is nevertheless necessary for decision making to describe the common behaviour of different variables in a model. Imprecisely defined relationships influence the “right” choice, why it is important to find a good approximation of the real circumstances. In financial science, copula functions are frequently used instead of correlation coefficients to model joint price behaviour, because of the possibility to link the marginal distributions on multifarious ways. By now, agricultural science makes less use of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Copula; Risk; Weather derivatives; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115996

Can Crop Insurance Premiums be Reliably Estimated?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Carpio,   Carlos E.; Rejesus,   Roderick M.
The objective of this paper is to compare the accuracy of crop insurance rating methods based on historical liability and indemnity data (similar to the procedure currently used by the Risk Management Agency) and “yield distribution” approaches.  Estimated rates are compared to “true” rates using empirically-grounded simulation procedures that take into account common data availability constraints. Simulation results suggest that farm and county level rate estimates using the “yield distribution” approach are significantly more accurate than those based on historical indemnity and liability records.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance premiums; Non-normal distributions; Simulation methods; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49465

A Multi-Disciplinary Approach For Determining Adoption Of Agricultural Price Risk Management Strategies
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jackson,   Elizabeth; Quaddus,   Mohammed; Islam,   Nazrul; Stanton,   John; Hoque,   Zohurul.
Australian wool producers have been slow to adopt price risk management strategies to stabilise the income from their wool sales.  The highly volatile auction system accounts for 85% of raw wool sales while the remainder is sold by forward contract, futures and other hedging methods.  Qualitative analysis was used to find behavioural factors associated with the adoption of price risk management strategies (specifically futures and forward contracts) for selling raw wool.  Consideration was given to Diffusion of Innovations and the Theory of Planned Behaviour as theoretical frameworks in order to answer the research question: Are there any non-traditional behavioural factors that need to be incorporated into existing frameworks to determine adoption of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Qualitative analysis; Trust; Habit; Social cohesion; Forward contracts; Wool.; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7985

Price Discovery in Agricultural Commodities: The Shifting Relationship Between Spot and Future Prices
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Baldi,   Lucia; Peri,   Massimo; Vandone,   Daniela.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114237

Including risk in enterprise decisions in Australia’s riskiest businesses
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Keogh,   Mick.
This study uses measures of revenue volatility to make comparisons between the business environments experienced by Australian and international farm businesses, and also between Australian farm businesses and businesses in other sectors of the Australian economy. The results indicate that Australian farm business managers operate in a more volatile business environment than is the case for virtually all national agriculture sectors world-wide, and also that businesses involved in Australian agriculture experience more than twice the level of volatility on average of businesses in other sectors of the Australian economy. These findings highlight the differences between agricultural and non-agricultural businesses, and therefore the need for different...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124202

Climate risk management based on climate modes and indices - the potential in Australian agribusinesses
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Best,   Peter; Stone,   Roger; Sosenko,   Olena.
Global and hemispheric climate indicators have proved useful in many countries for characterising intra- and inter-annual variability in climate processes, agricultural output and biomass production.  They also form the basis of successful seasonal climate and production prediction systems for the probability distributions of allied parameters such as rainfall or crop yield.  Climate risk management via derivative, insurance or bond instruments has only recently incorporated non-local climate parameters such as "teleconnection" indices in payoff functions and overall design.  A feasibility study of using the Southern Oscillation Index in weather derivatives for the Australian wheat industry has suggested several such climate-anomaly indicators as suitable...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Weather derivatives; SOI; Wheat yield; Australian case studies; Climate adaptation; Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9257

New Zealand Agriculture Policy Review
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gilmour,   Brad; Gurung,   Rajendra Kumar.
In 1984, New Zealand introduced important policy reforms in order to address major macroeconomic and fiscal imbalances. New Zealand's support to agricultural producers rapidly decreased from 30 percent of the value of production to about 2 percent, and has remained the lowest among OECD economies since that time.  After a difficult transition, the removal of subsidies resulted in a more diversified and competitive rural economy in New Zealand; total factor productivity growth has been roughly 2.5 percent annually since 1984, compared to roughly 1.5 percent in the prereform period.  This Policy Review focuses on agricultural policy today and how New Zealand is supporting the agricultural sector now without resorting to subsidies. It describes the policy New...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: New Zealand; Agricultural policy; Benchmark; Proactive; Agricultural and Food Policy; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; International Relations/Trade; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46688

Measuring farmers’ risk aversion: the unknown properties of the value function
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cao,   Ruixuan; Carpentier,   Alain; Gohin,   Alexandre.
We argue in this paper that available econometric estimates of farmers’ risk aversion do not measure true farmers’ preferences towards risky outcomes. Available analyses are mostly of static nature and indeed measure the parameters of the synthetic optimal value function rather than the deep parameters of the utility functions. We derive analytical and empirical results in a simple dynamic and stochastic framework showing that that there is not a simple relationship between utility functions and value functions when agents have many decision variables. In particular we find that the value function does not necessarily exhibit DARA when the instantaneous utility function satisfies DARA and conversely. We recommend performing dynamic econometric estimation...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114623

Easy money in FTR auctions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Canchi,   Devendra; Preckel,   Paul V.; Gotham,   Douglas J.; Sparrow,   F.T.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61902

A Portfolio Approach for the New Zealand Multi-Species Fisheries Management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Yang,   Ming Ming; Sharp,   Basil M.H.; Sbai,   Erwann.
Marine species are reproducible resource. Maintaining the stock level of marine species and the sustainability of fisheries development become critical issues in current scientific research areas due to the explosion of human population and exacerbation of natural environment. The traditional method that protects the marine species is the single species approach which set maximum sustainable yield (MSY) to prevent over-harvest. However, with the development of technology and comprehension of marine science, the single species approach has been found obsolete and incapable of dealing with problems of severe depletion of fish stocks and escalation of fisheries confliction. Studies show that when regulations are species specific and species are part of a...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Environmental Economics and Policy; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96660

Regional Wholesale Price Relationships in the Presence of Counter-Seasonal Imports
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Raper,   Kellie Curry; Thornsbury,   Suzanne; Aguilar,   Cristobal.
Counter-seasonal imports of fresh produce facilitate year-round availability in the U.S. and may impact the seasonal structure of market price relationships. Vector autoregression analysis is used to determine the nature and extent of spatial price relationships among four geographically distinct regions in the U.S. fresh peach wholesale market. We evaluate differences in regional spatial price relationships and find statistical evidence that price relationships among regions are different in periods dominated by regional domestic supplies imports compared with periods when counter-seasonal imports dominate the market.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Counter-seasonal imports; Price analysis; Regional prices; Spatial prices; VAR; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Risk and Uncertainty; Q1; Q11; Q13.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48748

Mitigating Cotton Revenue Risk Through Irrigation, Insurance, and Hedging
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Barham,   E. Hart Bise; Robinson,   John R.C.; Richardson,   James W.; Rister,   M. Edward.
This study focuses on managing cotton production and marketing risks using combinations of irrigation levels, put options (as price insurance), and crop insurance. Stochastic cotton yields and prices are used to simulate a whole-farm financial statement for a 1,000 acre furrow irrigated cotton farm in the Texas Lower Rio Grande Valley under 16 combinations of risk management strategies. Analyses for risk-averse decision makers indicate that multiple irrigations are preferred. The benefits to purchasing put options increase with yields, as they are more beneficial when higher yields are expected from applying more irrigation applications. Crop insurance is strongly preferred at lower irrigation levels.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Cotton; Crop insurance; Irrigation; Options; Puts; Risk; Simulation; Stochastic efficiency with respect to a function; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q12; Q15.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117946

The Duopolistic Firm with Endogenous Risk Control: Case of Persuasive Advertising and Product Differentiation
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wang,   Shinn-Shyr; Stiegert,   Kyle W.
In this paper, a two-period game is constructed, where duopoly firms choose advertising strategies in the first period and compete in price or quantity in the second period by maximizing the value of firm equity. Using certainty equivalence, we demonstrate the impacts of uncertainty and modes of competition on duopoly firms' optimal pricing, production, and advertising strategies. Equilibrium price and quantity outcomes emerge as significantly di®erent from the standard industrial organization model of profit maximization. It turns out that the common measurement of market power, the Lerner index, is generally mis-stated. In contrast to the literature, we also find that firms will optimally switch from quantity to price competition either when advertising...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12606

Basis Risk and Weather Hedging Effectiveness
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Woodard,   Joshua D.; Garcia,   Philip.
Basis risk has been cited as a primary concern for implementing weather hedges. This study investigates several dimensions of weather basis risk for the U.S. corn market at various levels of aggregation. The results suggest that while the degree of geographic basis risk may be significant in some instances, it should not preclude the use of geographic cross-hedging. In addition, the degree to which geographic basis risk impedes effective hedging diminishes as the level of spatial aggregation increases. In fact, geographic basis risk is actually negative in the case most representative of a reinsurance hedge, and the reduction in risk from employing straightforward temperature derivatives is significant. Finally, precipitation hedges are found to introduce...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Weather Derivatives; Basis Risk; Spatial Aggregation; Insurance; Hedging Effectiveness; Agricultural Finance; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9254

Economic Efficiency Adjusted for Risk Preferences
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Yeager,   Elizabeth A.; Langemeier,   Michael R.
This study investigates the impact of risk preferences on economic efficiency scores.  Risk averse individuals may be less likely to adopt new technologies and have lower production levels than individuals with other risk preferences.  Nonparametric techniques are used to estimate cost and revenue efficiency for a sample of Kansas farms.  Each farm had a risk preference score and the scores in the sample ranged from 5 to 86 where a smaller value represents greater risk aversion.  Efficiency estimates were first calculated using traditional input and output measures.  Efficiency was re-estimated including the inverse risk preference score as a non-discretionary input.  Comparisons were made between the characteristics of the farms with an observed...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Cost Efficiency; Revenue Efficiency; Risk Preference; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; C14; D22; D81.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124012

Risk and Uncertainty Analysis with Networks of Decisions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Recke,   Guido.
In this paper an applied approach for analysing economic problems under risk and uncertainty based on networks of decisions (NODs) will be discussed. It can be shown that network of decision analysis can help to understand complex decision problems under risk and uncertainty in single case situations. A variety of decision criteria like expectation values and a special ANOVA can be used to get better knowledge about prediction and controllability of the decision problems.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Networks of decisions; Decision criteria; Variance analysis; Prediction; Control; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120536

INCREASING THE ACCURACY OF OPTION PRICING BY USING IMPLIED PARAMETERS RELATED TO HIGHER MOMENTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ji,   Dasheng; Brorsen,   B. Wade.
The inaccuracy of the Black-Scholes formula arises from two aspects: the formula is for European options while most real option contracts are American; the formula is based on the assumption that underlying asset prices follow a lognormal distribution while in the real world asset prices cannot be described well by a lognormal distribution. We develop an American option pricing model that allows non-normality. The theoretical basis of the model is Gaussian quadrature and dynamic programming. The usual binomial and trinomial models are special cases. We use the Jarrow-Rudd formula and the relaxed binomial and trinomial tree models to imply the parameters related to the higher moments. The results demonstrate that using implied parameters related to the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Option pricing; Volatility smile; Edgeworth series; Gaussian Quadrature; Relaxed binomial and trinomial tree models; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18945

EU and World Agricultural Markets: Are They more Integrated after the Fischler Reform?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mela,   Giulio; Canali,   Gabriele.
This work uses cointegration techniques allowing for structural breaks to assess the extent to which the Fischler reform of the CAP increases price transmission elasticity (PTE) between the world and European corn, wheat, and soybean markets. Results show that the reform increased PTE in the case of corn and wheat, while its impact was negligible for soybeans. However, the long-term relationship (cointegration) between world and European prices can be detected only taking into account – other than the Fischler reform’s structural break – also the fact that world commodity markets were interested, in 2003-04 and 2007-08, by price bubbles. In particular the latter affected the world – European corn price relationship in the ascending phase, while the wheat...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Cointegration; Structural breaks; Agricultural commodity prices; Fischler CAP reform; Risk and Uncertainty; C22; Q02; Q18; O13.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122480

Geographic Determinants of Preferences  along U.S. Crop Insurance Subsidy Schedule
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Du,   Xiaodong; Hennessy,   David A.; Feng,   Hongli.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124190

CROP INSURANCE: A PRIVATE CHOICE OF PUBLIC CONCERNS-- THE COMPANY'S ROLE (PowerPoint Presentation)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Griffin,   Steven C.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32941

Wheat Variety Selection to Maximize Returns and Minimize Risk: An Application of Portfolio Theory
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Barkley,   Andrew P.; Peterson,   Hikaru Hanawa; Shroyer,   James.
This research shows that a portfolio of wheat varieties could enhance profitability and reduce risk over the selection of a single variety for Kansas wheat producers. Many Kansas wheat farmers select varieties solely based on published average yields. This study uses portfolio theory from business investment analysis to find the optimal, yield-maximizing and risk-minimizing combination of wheat varieties in Kansas.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Portfolio theory; Wheat variety selection; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Industrial Organization; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q16.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57152

IS A PUBLIC REGULATION OF FOOD PRICE VOLATILITY FEASIBLE IN AFRICA? AN ARCH APPROACH IN KENYA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Maitre d'Hotel,   Elodie; le Cotty,   Tristan; Jayne,   Thomas S.
The 2007-2008 food crisis and current food price swings led economists to re-evaluate the potential for policy instruments to manage food price volatility. Many developing countries recently pursued price regulation policies, but the difficulties of these policies in promoting price stability is not fully understood. In particular, the ability of a stabilization policy to lower food price volatility does not depend on the nature of the policy instrument only, but also on the institutional conditions of its implementation. Kenya is a particularly interesting case as it is characterized by a rather long tradition of public intervention, and by the persistence of highly volatile prices. The consistency of the policy use appears to be key factor influencing...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Volatility; Predictability; Consistency; Food; Policy; Kenya; Food Security and Poverty; International Development; Risk and Uncertainty; D84; Q13; Q18.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122551

Inter-Temporal Investment in Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wang,   Weiwei; McCarl,   Bruce A.
Currently, different dimensions of mitigation strategies have been investigated in policy analysis. However, ambitious mitigation action aiming at reducing future climate change will not prevent much climate change before mid-century. Short-term and medium-term temperature as well as associated damages cannot be avoided completely.  Increasingly there appears to be recognition of the need to simultaneously implement adaptation and mitigation. However, the optimal combination between adaptation and mitigation that can best address climate change over time is still an open question. Literature base is rather small, yet very diverse and inconsistent in conclusions. In this paper, we do an exploration of the temporal optimal investment mix between adaptation...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Climate Change Damages; Adaptation; Mitigation; Temporal Investment; Integrated Assessment Model; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54; Q58.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103408

RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE INTEGRATED NAFTA MARKET: LESSONS FROM THE CASE OF BSE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Caswell,   Julie A.; Sparling,   David.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16729

Income Source Matters in Farm Household Spending
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Effland,   Anne; Whitaker,   James B.
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124203

Valuation of Carbon Forestry and the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme: A Real Options Approach Using the Binomial Tree Method
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tee,   James; Scarpa,   Riccardo; Marsh,   Dan; Guthrie,   Graeme.
Under the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme, new forests planted on/after 1st January 1990 can earn carbon credits. These credits have to be repaid upon forest harvest. This paper analyses the effects of this carbon scheme on the valuation of bareland, on which radiata pine is to be planted. NPV/LEV and Real Options methods are employed, assuming stochastic timber and carbon prices. Valuation increases significantly and rotation age is likely to be lengthened. We include a scenario analysis of potential implications of rotation age lengthening on carbon stock management in New Zealand.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS); Climate change policy; Kyoto Protocol; Real options; Carbon forestry; Tradable permit; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q23; Q28; Q54.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123665

THE ROBUSTNESS OF SINGLE INDEX MODELS IN CROP MARKETS: A MULTIPLE INDEX MODEL TEST
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Blank,   Steven C.
The single index model (SIM), developed for analysis of financial assets, is assessed as a tool for evaluating the risk-return tradeoff faced in agricultural enterprise selection. This study tests whether some of the hypotheses underlying the SIM are valid when the SIM is used in agricultural cropping decisions. Empirical evidence from county level data does not support SIM hypotheses, indicating that more robust results might come from multiple index models.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1991
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32609

Minimizing geographical basis risk of weather derivatives using a multi-site rainfall model
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ritter,   Matthias; Musshoff,   Oliver; Odening,   Martin.
Weather risk is one of the main causes for income fluctuation in agriculture. Since 1997, the economic consequences of weather risk can be insured with weather derivatives, which are offered for many different weather events, such as temperature, rainfall, snow or hurricanes. It is well known that the hedging effectiveness of weather derivatives is interfered by the existence of geographical basis risk, i.e., the deviation of weather conditions at different locations. In this paper, we explore how geographical basis risk of rainfall based derivatives can be reduced by regional diversification. Minimizing geographical basis risk requires knowledge of the joint distribution of rainfall at different locations. For that purpose, we estimate a daily multi-site...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Management; Weather risk; Regional diversification; Portfolio weights; Risk and Uncertainty; G11; Q14; G32.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122527

SOME BOUNDS TO THE RELEVANCE OF  DECISION THEORY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wright,   Vic.
Decision theory affords a means for the objectively rational use of information in decision-making. Concern has been expressed from time to time that the application of decision theory is, or is sometimes, of doubtful appropriateness. In this paper an attempt is made to identify a principal source of this concern and the mis-specification of decision problems using decision theory that it implies. Suggestions are offered as to how the merits of the use of decision theory might be retained in decision-making situations where doubts may arise about the appropriateness of its application.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1983
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22746

Localized and Incomplete Mutual Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: de Janvry,   Alain; Sadoulet,   Elisabeth; Winters,   Paul C.; Murgai,   Rinku.
The practice of mutual insurance is conditioned by two types of transaction costs: "association" costs in establishing links with insurance partners and "extraction" costs in using these links to implement insurance transfers. Data on insurance-motivated water exchanges among households along two irrigation canals in Pakistan show that households exchange bilaterally with neighbors and family members but the majority exchange with members of tightly knit clusters. We, therefore, develop a model that endogenizes both cluster formation and the quality of insurance in the chosen cluster as a function of the relative importance of association and extraction costs. Full insurance at the community level, the object of most empirical tests of mutual insurance, is...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Mutual insurance; Transaction costs; Clusters; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12905

INCORPORATING UNCERTAINTY IN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mooney,   Sian; Antle,   John M.; Capalbo,   Susan Marie; Paustian,   Keith H.
This paper examines how uncertainty analysis can be used to examine parameter uncertainty; determine the expected value of model outcomes and the range of possible model outcomes for a non-linear integrated economic and biophysical model.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22225

Risk Reduction of LGM-Dairy and its Potential Impact on Production
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Burdine,   Kenneth H.; Maynard,   Leigh J.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124180

Risk, Insurance, and the Provision of Public Goods Under Uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Aultman,   Stephen; Coggins,   Jay S.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61795

Cattle Trade and the Risk of Importing Animal Diseases into the Netherlands
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Achterbosch,   Thom J.; Dopfer,   Dorte D.V.; Tabeau,   Andrzej A.
Projections of live cattle trade in the EU-25 assist to reduce the uncertainty on the risk of importing animal diseases in the Netherlands. The accession of 10 member states to the European Union has a potentially large impact on livestock trade in the EU as it liberalized in one stroke a trade that was administered by the Management Committee for Beef until May 1, 2004. The approach combines AG-Memod partial equilibrium with GTAP general equilibrium modelling in order to estimate the impact of quota liberalization. Quota removal will substantially alter the regional structure of livestock imports, as the share of new EU member states in the east triples to 25%. The risk outlook indicates a need for enhanced animal health services in the new member states.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Livestock; Animal disease; Trade; Projections; Quota; EU-enlargement; Risk and Uncertainty; F17; I18; Q17.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24558

A Study on the Performance of National Agricultural Insurance Scheme and Suggestions to Make it More Effective
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Raju,   S.S.; Chand,   Ramesh.
Agricultural production and farm income in India involve several risks. Crop insurance is the only mechanism available to safeguard against production risks. Against this background, this paper has examined the features and performance of National Agricultural Insurance Scheme (NAIS) operating in the country and has suggested some modifications to make it more effective. NAIS coverage in terms of crop area, number of farmers and value of agricultural output is very small. If crop insurance programme is to be made an important tool in agricultural risk management, the present level of coverage will have to be improved, at least by 3-4 fold. Such an expansion can occur only with improvements in and broad-basing of the insurance scheme. Every suggested...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/47355

Risk and Aversion in the Integrated Assessment of Climate Change
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Crost,   Benjamin; Traeger,   Christian P.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Uncertainty; Integrated assessment; Risk aversion; Intertemporal substitution; Recursive utility; Dynamic programming; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54; Q00; D90; C63.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90935

Stochastic efficiency analysis with risk aversion bounds: a simplified approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hardaker,   J. Brian; Richardson,   James W.; Lien,   Gudbrand D.; Schumann,   Keith D.
A method of stochastic dominance analysis with respect to a function (SDRF) is described and illustrated. The method, called stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF), orders a set of risky alternatives in terms of certainty equivalents for a specified range of attitudes to risk. It can be applied for conforming utility functions with risk attitudes defined by corresponding ranges of absolute, relative or partial risk aversion coefficients. Unlike conventional SDRF, SERF involves comparing each alternative with all the other alternatives simultaneously, not pairwise, and hence can produce a smaller efficient set than that found by simple pairwise SDRF over the same range of risk attitudes. Moreover, the method can be implemented in a simple...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117962

USING INSURANCE TO ENHANCE NITROGEN FERTILIZER APPLICATION TIMING TO REDUCE NITROGEN LOSSES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Huang,   Wen-Yuan.
Nitrogen applied before planting is more vulnerable to loss to the environment than nitrogen applied during the growing season, but the growing season application can increase the risk of lower yields caused by adverse weather that prohibits farmers to complete N application.  An expected utility framework is used to illustrate the potential economic benefit of insurance for a farmer to reduce this risk of cost.  An expected-value variance analysis is used to illustrate the potential benefit of insurance to Iowa corn growers who apply N fertilizer only during the growing season.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Insurance; Nitrogen fertilizer; Application timings; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15520

The evolution of land values in Italy. Does the influence of agricultural prices really matter?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mela,   Giulio; Longhitano,   Davide; Povellato,   Andrea.
Interest towards farmland market has been increasing in recent years. In developing countries there is rising concern about land being purchased by foreign investors, while in the developed world the debate is centred on whether agricultural factors are still the main determinants of land values or not. This work assesses the determinants of land values in Italy using panel data techniques during the time span 1992-2010. In Italy farmland values have historically been influenced more by natural characteristics of the land than agricultural prices. However, lately non-agricultural factors have been increasing their importance. We find that agricultural prices only slightly affect average land values in Italy. Main determinants of land prices are the yield...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farmland prices; Land market; Panel data models; Farmland values determinants; Risk and Uncertainty; C23; E32; Q24.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122479

AN OPERATIONAL APPROACH FOR EVALUATING INVESTMENT RISK: AN APPLICATION TO THE NO-TILL TRANSITION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Upadhyay,   Bharat Mani; Young,   Douglas L.
This study analyses short and long term safety first business risk associated with twenty six no-till transition strategies across four types of farms in eastern Washington. Risk of transition failure generated from risk averse criteria are also contrasted with a risk neutral criterion. Results revealed (1) that speeds of adoption have a larger effect than drill acquisition sequences in successful transition, (2) high equity farm have higher chance of success, and (3) slow acreage expansion with a custom or rental drill is preferred until yield penalty is eliminated.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35992

Customizable Area Whole Farm Insurance (CAWFI)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chalise,   Lekhnath; Coble,   Keith H.; Barnett,   Barry J.
The customizable area whole farm insurance (CAWFI) was designed and compared with no insurance program and currently available whole farm insurance based on farm level yield (CFWFI).  The CAWFI yields higher certainty equivalents over no insurance program, but lower to CFWFI; CAWFI has fairly small indemnity compared with CFWFI.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98900

Risk Aversion, Prudence, and the Three-Moment Decision Model for Hedging
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chen,   Xiaomei; Wang,   H. Holly; Mittelhammer,   Ronald C.
The linear two-moment mean-variance (MV) model has been widely used in finance and economic decision analysis as an approximation of Von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility (EU) model.  The introduction of third or higher moments not only can improve the accuracy of the approximation, but is also suitable to represent investors¡¯ skewness preference (prudence) with the latter supported by empirical evidence.  The goal of this paper is to develop a general MVS model and compare it and the traditional MV model against the EU model in the setting of an individual producer hedging in the futures market.  Results show: 1) the derived linear MVS model maintains the analytical convenience of MV model, 2) it can generate different results as MV, 3) it approximate...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21485

An overview of the development challenges and constraints of the Niger Basin and possible intervention strategies
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Namara,   Regassa E.; Barry,   Boubacar; Owusu,   Eric S.; Ogilvie,   Andrew.
The Niger River Basin covers 7.5% of the African continent and is shared between nine riparian countries. The human population of the basin is growing at an average annual rate of about 3%, which makes the Niger River Basin one of the areas with the highest fertility rates in the world. The desert margin is expanding; climate change is negatively impacting rainfall; and urbanization, industrialization, and the human and livestock population are threatening the quantity and quality of available water resources. The basin population already suffers from chronic poverty. Based on a literature review, this paper suggests some key water-related and other interventions that are capable of easing the basin's development challenges.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: River basin development; Poverty; Social aspects; Climate change; Agriculture sector; Water governance; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118299

The Measurement of Climatic Risk in the Western Division of New South Wales
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rutherford,   John.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1950
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8984

Signaling Credit Risk in Agriculture: Implications for Capital Structure Analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zhao,   Jianmei; Barry,   Peter J.; Katchova,   Ani L.
Signaling is an important element in the lender-borrower relationship that influences the cost and availability of debt capital to agricultural borrowers. This paper analyzes the effects of signaling on farm capital structure in conjunction with the pecking order and trade-off theories. The aggregate estimation indicates that signaling does affect agricultural credit relationships through measures of past cash flow and profitability. High-quality borrowers achieve greater credit capacity by providing lenders with valid signals of their financial status, while adjusting toward target debt levels over time and following the pecking order relationship in the short run.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm businesses; Pecking order theory; Signaling theory; Trade-off theory; Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty; G11; G32; Q14.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/47260

An Exploratory Study to Assess European Consumers' Opinion about a Beef Quality Guarantee System
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Verbeke,   Wim; Van Wezemael,   Lynn; Barcellos,   Marcia Dutra de; Kugler,   Jens O.; Chryssochoidis,   George M.; Ueland,   Oydis; Grunert,   Klaus G.
Consumer demand in relation to food is increasingly shifting towards products that are safe, nutritious, and of good eating quality. Beef consumers are demanding for experience quality that matches their quality expectations formed prior to consumption, particularly with respect to beef tenderness. The development of a beef quality guarantee system, backed up by objective knowledge obtained through muscle profiling research, can allow the beef industry to meet these consumer demands. A qualitative consumer study has been carried out to assess European consumers’ opinions about beef quality and beef related technologies. This paper reports on consumer opinions and perceptions about muscle profiling and a beef quality guarantee system. Findings indicate that...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59113

European Consumers' Acceptance and Rejection of Novel Beef Technologies: A Qualitative Study
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Barcellos,   Marcia Dutra de; Kugler,   Jens O.; Grunert,   Klaus G.; Van Wezemael,   Lynn; Pothoulaki,   M.; Ueland,   Oydis; Verbeke,   Wim.
As part of ProSafeBeef, an integrated research project funded by the European Commission, the present qualitative study was carried out with European consumers to obtain insights into their acceptance or rejection of eight selected novel beef production and processing technologies, identified here as concepts: 1) marinating by injection for increased healthiness; 2) marinating by injection for increased safety; 3) marinating by injection for increased eating quality; 4) marinating by submerging for increased eating quality; 5) nutritional enhancement; 6) shock wave treatment; 7) muscle profiling and 8) thermal processing. In total, 65 adults between 19- 60 years of age participated in eight focus groups that were performed in Spain, France, Germany and the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59041

Farm-Level Analysis of Risk Management Proposals
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Babcock,   Bruce A.; Hart,   Chad E.; Adams,   Gary M.; Westhoff,   Patrick C.
This paper presents a detailed report of the representative farm analysis (summarized in FAPRI Policy Working Paper #01-00). At the request of several members of the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry of the U.S. Senate, we have continued to analyze the impacts of the Farmers' Risk Management Act of 1999 (S. 1666) and the Risk Management for the 21st Century Act (S. 1580). Earlier analysis reported in FAPRI Policy Working Paper #04-99 concentrated on the aggregate net farm income and government outlay impacts. The representative farm analysis is conducted for several types of farms, including both irrigated and non-irrigated cotton farms in Tom Green County, Texas; dryland wheat farms in Morton County, North Dakota and Sumner County, Kansas;...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Farm analysis; Representative farm analysis; Revenue; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18389

ASSESSING FARMERS' ATTITUDES TOWARD RISK USING THE "CLOSING-IN" METHOD
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bard,   Sharon K.; Barry,   Peter J.
The 1996 Farm Bill and low commodity prices have regenerated interest in the impact of risk and farmers' risk attitudes on production agriculture.  Previous research has used expected utility theory (EUT) and direct elicitation of utility functions (DEU) for eliciting risk attitudes.  To overcome the criticism of EUT and DEU, a recently developed technique called the "closing in" method is adapted for eliciting farmers' risk attitudes.  This method is applied to Illinois farmers by using a computerized decision procedure, and is validated by comparing the results to the farmers' self-assessment of their risk attitudes and score to a risk attitudinal scale.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31153

DECOMPOSING PRODUCER PRICE RISK: AN ANALYSIS OF LIVESTOCK MARKETS IN NORTHERN KENYA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Barrett,   Christopher B.; Luseno,   Winnie K.
This paper introduces a simple method of price risk decomposition that determines the extent to which producer price risk is attributable to volatile inter-market margins, intra-day variation, intra-week (day of week) variation, or seasonality. We apply the method to livestock markets in northern Kenya, a setting of dramatic price volatility where price stabilization is a live policy issue. Large, variable inter-market basis is the single most important factor in explaining producer price risk in animals typically traded between markets.  Local market conditions explain most price risk in other markets, in which traded animals rarely exit the region.  Seasonality accounts for relatively little price risk faced by pastoralists in the dry lands of northern...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36154

AN EVALUATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR DAIRY FARMS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bosch,   Darrell J.; Johnson,   Christian J.
Variability in feed prices and crop yields are important sources of risk to dairy farmers. A simulation model of a representative dairy farm was used to evaluate crop insurance and hedging as risk management strategies. These strategies lowered expected net returns but also reduced risk. The preferred set of strategies at lower levels of risk aversion included hedging and crop insurance, although a base scenario in which no risk management strategies were employed was also efficient. The preferred strategy at higher levels of risk aversion was a combination of crop insurance and hedging.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1992
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29638

Probabilistic Modeling of Catastrophic Weather Risks: Implications for Indemnification Plans for Animal Waste Spills
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Goodwin,   Barry K.; Vado,   Ligia.
Replaced with revised version of paper 08/24/07.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9710

Flood Insurance Demand along the Gulf and Florida Coast
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lee,   Jihyun; Petrolia,   Daniel R.; Ferraez,   Will T.
The objective of this research is to identify factors that influence both the decision (yes or no) and level of flood insurance among coastal homeowners in the southeast U.S.  Recently flood damage has dramatically increased (Flood), and Crossett et al. (2004) report that coastal populations are growing. And in spite of rising costs of living in coastal areas, people are willing to pay more for access to ocean views and other natural amenities associated with coastal living (Bin and Kruse, 2006).         Although the federal government provides flood insurance programs and encourages at-risk residents to insure their property from flood, rates of uptake remain low (Burby, 2001; Kunreuther, 2006; Landry and Jahan-Parvar, 2009). The National Flood Insurance...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Flood Insurance; Risk; Insurance Demand; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99239

Strategic Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Innovation and New Technology Introduction during Volatile Times1
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Boehlje,   Michael; Roucan-Kane,   Maud.
www.ifama.org
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Deere and Company; Uncertainty; Real option; Organizational structure; Option; Risk; Innovation; Industrial Organization; Risk and Uncertainty; Q1.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92576

Estimating Risk-Adjusted Interest Rates for Dairy Farms
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tauer,   Loren W.
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121149

INCORPORATING RISK PREFERENCES INTO REAL OPTIONS MODELS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Isik,   Murat.
This paper develops a framework to link the expected utility analysis to real options models in order to capture the joint effects of risk aversion and irreversibility associated with real investments.  It aims at modifying the theory of investment under uncertainty by incorporating decision makers' risk preferences and allows explicitly analyzing the impacts of risk aversion, uncertainty and irreversibility on decisions such as investment and resource allocations. It addresses the shortcomings of the commonly used expected utility and investment under uncertainty models be generalizing the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty by allowing for risk-averse investors. We found that uncertainty, irreversibility and risk aversion are important...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Expected utility; Investment under uncertainty; Irreversibility; Real options; Risk aversion; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; G1.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20027

The Role of Small Farms in Structural Change
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Huettel,   Silke; Margarian,   Anne.
This paper explains regionally differentiated patterns of structural change based on a theoretical framework dealing with strategic interaction of farms on the land market. The main research question focuses on the causes of regionally persistent structures. An empirical Markov chain model is defined for the West German agricultural sector. Thereby it is possible to explain the probabilities of farm growth, decline or exit in terms of the current and former regional farm size structure. Further, the impact of variables describing the regional farm structure, thereby indicating market power of the large, the potential of high competition for land within a region and possibly high rents of the status quo in combination with sunk costs, is quantified. The...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Structural change; Strategic competition; Land market; Markov chain; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59519

Integrating risk and uncertainty in PMP models
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Petsakos,   Athanasios; Rozakis,   Stelios.
Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) is one of the most commonly used methods of calibrating activity linear programming (LP) models in agriculture. PMP applications published thus far focus on the estimation of a farm’s nonlinear cost or profit function and rely on the recovery of unobserved or implicit information that can explain the initial model’s inability to calibrate. In this paper we use the PMP procedure to calibrate an expected utility model under the assumption that this implicit information can reveal a farmer’s profit expectations and risk attitude. The perfect calibration shows that PMP can be applied not only to LP models, but also to models that incorporate risk and this provides an interesting alternative to the traditional PMP...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: E-V analysis; Expected utility; Farm model; Positive Mathematical Programming; Risk.; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114762

Stochastic Efficiency Analysis With Risk Aversion Bounds: A Simplified Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hardaker,   J. Brian; Lien,   Gudbrand D.
A method of stochastic dominance analysis with respect to a function (SDRF) is described and illustrated. The method, called stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF), partitions a set of risky alternatives in terms of certainty equivalents for a specified range of attitudes to risk. It can be applied for any utility function with risk attitudes defined by corresponding ranges of absolute, relative or partial risk aversion coefficients. SERF involves comparing each alternative with all the other alternatives simultaneously, not pairwise as with conventional SDRF. Hence it yields a subset of the efficient set found by SDRF. Moreover, the method is readily implemented in a simple spreadsheet with no special software needed.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Stochastic dominance with respect to a function; Risk aversion.; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12954

Implementing USDA Farm Disaster Programs (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Johnson,   John A.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37421

DO ANTIBIOTICS REDUCE PRODUCTION RISK FOR U.S. PORK PRODUCERS?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Liu,   Xuanli; Miller,   Gay Y.; McNamara,   Paul E.
Production risk from live weight variation of market pigs has become a more important concern in U.S. swine production. Packers are concerned about the variation in carcass size because of the demand for standardized cuts and the use of automation in the slaughter process. Swine producers care about standardized pigs because of revenue implications and possible links to animal health and productivity. Pig size variation can be due to various condition and inputs including antibiotics. However, discussions on risk reduction from antibiotic use have generally not been considered. Our work extends previous studies by systematically examining the aspects of production risk reduction and highlights the potential results of banning antibiotics from a risk...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Production risk; Antibiotics; Swine; Utility; Stochastic dominance; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q10; Q12; Q14.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22026

COMPARING THE PERFORMANCES OF THE PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM AND TIME-SERIES APPROACHES TO HEDGING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bryant,   Henry L.; Haigh,   Michael S.
This research compares partial equilibrium and statistical time-series approaches to hedging.  The finance literature stresses the former approach, while the applied economics literature has focused on the latter.  We compare the out-of-sample hedging effectiveness of the two approaches when hedging commodity price risk using futures contracts.  For various methods of parameter estimation and inference, we find that the partial equilibrium models cannot out-perform a vector error-correction model with a GARCH error structure.  The partial equilibrium models' unpalatable assumption of deterministically evolving futures volatility seems to impede their hedging effectiveness, even when potentially foresighted option-implied volatility term structures are...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28580

Risk Management Strategies of Illinois Farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Spaulding,   Aslihan D.; Roy,   Kayla D.; Winter,   J. Randy; Tudor,   Kerry W.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61693

REDUCED RISK ROTATIONS FOR FRESH VEGETABLE CROPS: AN ANALYSIS FOR THE SAND MOUNTAIN AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS OF ALABAMA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zwingli,   Michael E.; Hardy,   William E., Jr.; Adrian,   John L., Jr.
A mixed integer linear programming model was developed to simulate the decision environment faced by an entry-level vegetable producer contemplating production for the wholesale market. The model includes activities which permitted consideration of 13 vegetable crops system. Rotations were permitted within given bounds established by marketing, rotational, and price risk constraints. Rotations were generally stable with respect to markets and relative to crop mixes as target income and acceptable negative deviation levels were varied. Spring and fall broccoli and turnip greens and late spring-summer yellow and zucchini squash were dominant crops in the triple crop rotations in the Atlanta and Cincinnati markets.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1989
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30111

Evaluating a Proposed Modification to Federal Crop Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ling,   Shuqiong; Deng,   Xiaohui; Barnett,   Barry J.
A proposed modification to the Federal Crop Insurance Program would allow crop producers to simultaneously purchase both a farm-level crop insurance policy and a supplemental county-level crop insurance policy. This study evaluates this proposal for representative cotton farms in Georgia. The goal is to test whether the additional risk protection provided by the supplemental policy is considered to be worth the additional cost.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Certainty peril crop insurance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34816

The Farm Service Agency and Risk Management Agency Approaches to Risk Management (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Karmen,   Bradley.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37422

Adoption of Cover Crops and Its Effect on Nitrogen Use by Farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gabrielyan,   Gnel; Chintawar,   Sachin; Westra,   John V.
With increasing environmental concerns, increasing population, changing tastes and preferences of consumers towards healthier foods, and with more food safety requirements, agronomic practices have changed gradually to provide not only food and fiber but also public goods and other beneficial services from agriculture. Cover cropping is one type of technology increasingly being adopted by producers of multifunctional agriculture. Cover crops provide a range of benefits, both private and public. In this paper we identify factors affecting farmers’ choice to adopt cover crops. We examine the impact on nitrogen use from adopting cover crops and the resultant decrease in input costs. Using a two-stage approach that incorporates endogeneity of adoption in...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Cover crops; Nitrogen usage; Technology adoption; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56520

The Role of Risk in the Decision to Produce Post-Decoupling - A Stochastic Budgeting Example
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Thorne,   Fiona S.; Hennessy,   Thia C.
Under the Mac Sharry and Agenda 2000 reforms, direct payments comprised a significant portion of farmers' income in the EU. Farmers had to engage in production to receive these payments but the payments were relatively risk-free and therefore risk may not have played an important role in the production decision. This paper considers the effect of the decoupling of direct payments from production in the EU and in particular, on the role of production risk in the decision making process. In an environment where direct payments are completely decoupled from production, farmers may engage in an 'entitlement farming' system, that is retain their land only to activate the decoupled payment and not actually produce any tangible goods. This paper examines the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Decoupling; Risk Analysis; Production Risk; Decision Analysis; Stochastic Modelling; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25415

Dynamic hedging with uncertain production
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Karp,   Larry S.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1985
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6090

BALANCING SCIENCE AND RISK MANAGEMENT  (PowerPoint Presentation)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hueston,   William D.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32881

A Whole Farm Analysis of the Influence of Auto-Steer Navigation on Net Returns, Risk, and Production Practices
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shockley,   Jordan M.; Dillon,   Carl R.; Stombaugh,   Timothy S.
A whole farm economic analysis was conducted to provide a detailed assessment into the economic, risk, and production implications due to the adoption of auto-steer navigation. It was determined that auto-steer navigation was profitable for a grain farmer in Kentucky with net returns increasing up to 0.90% ($3.35/acre). Additionally, the technology could be used in reducing production risk. Adoption of the technology also alters production practices for optimal use.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Economics; Farm management; Mean-variance; Precision agriculture; Simulation; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; C61; C63; D81; Q12; Q16.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100640

Directions for Using the Crop Insurance Decision Making Tool
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gloy,   Brent A.; Staehr,   A. Edward.
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121830

Is There Surplus Labor in Rural India?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Foster,   Andrew D.; Rosenzweig,   Mark R.
We show empirically using panel data at the plot and farm level and based on a model incorporating supervision costs, risk, credit-market imperfections and scale-economies associated with mechanization that small-scale farming is inefficient in India. Larger farms are more profitable per acre, more mechanized, less constrained in input use after bad shocks, and employ less per-acre labor than small farms. Based on our structural estimates of the effects of farm size on labor use and the distribution of Indian landholdings, we estimate that over 20% of the Indian agricultural labor force is surplus if minimum farm scale is 20 acres.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Agriculture; India; Scale; Profits; Labor; Tractors; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; International Development; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; O13; O16; O53.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95273

The Adverse Impact of Temperature on Income
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ng,   Pin T.; Zhao,   Xiaobing.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61787

NONMARKET VALUATION UNDER PREFERENCE UNCERTAINTY: ECONOMETRIC MODELS AND ESTIMATION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hanemann,   W. Michael; Kristrom,   Bengt; Li,   Chuan-Zhong.
This paper makes an attempt to introduce preference uncertainty into discrete choice models used in contingent valuation experiments. We develop an econometric model which may characterize the degree of the uncertainty and provide an empirical illustration of the suggested model.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1996
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6858

Indirect Utility Maximization under Risk: A Heterogeneous Panel Application
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Liu,   Yucan; Shumway,   C. Richard.
The curvature properties of the indirect utility function imply a set of refutable implications in the form of comparative static results and symmetric relations for the competitive firm operating under uncertainty. These hypotheses, first derived and empirically tested under output price uncertainty by Saha and Shumway (1998), are extended in this article to the more general case of both price and quantity uncertainty and result in an important theoretical finding. Using recently developed techniques for testing unit root and cointegration in heterogeneous panels, we develop a model of U.S. agricultural production based on the time series properties of a panel of state-level data and contrast test implications with those resulting from a traditional model...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36307

On the Microeconomics of Diversification under Uncertainty and Learning
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chavas,   Jean-Paul; Barham,   Bradford L.
This paper investigates the microeconomics of diversification, based on a two-period model of an owner-managed firm facing uncertainty. The analysis utilizes a general state-contingent representation of uncertainty and learning. Economies of diversification are defined based on a certainty equivalent, which has three components: expected profit, the risk premium (measuring the cost of risk aversion), and the value of information associated with learning. The influence of scale effects, “trans-ray concavity” effects, and income effects on economies of diversification are examined in detail. We argue that, while scope economies and risk aversion can provide general incentives for diversification, information and learning can have the opposite effect. By...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92141

Optimal Timing of Farmland Investment - An Experimental Study on Farmers' Decision Behavior -
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Maart,   Syster Christin; Musshoff,   Oliver.
Replaced with revised version of paper 5/26/11.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Experimental Economics; Investment; Real Options; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; C91; D81; D92.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103693

Economic Perspectives of the Diversity of Risks among Crop Farmers in the Northern Guinea Savanna of Nigeria
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Olarinde,   Luke O.; Manyong,   Victor M.; Akintola,   J.O.
In this paper, we examine the diversity of risks that affect farming in the Northern Guinea Savanna of Nigeria. We also investigate the perspectives of these risks in relation to their economic implications on the farming enterprises. We also show that through reorganization of these risks, some derived factors have the ability to present themselves whether as corresponding to existing categorization of the variables or not and also to enable us know which of the factors is more important than the other. Gross margin and factor analytical methods were used in computing the estimated results on a cross sectional sample of 348 farming households. Results show that farmers who were grouped under natural risk incurred the least mean production cost of N11,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96821

Evaluation of the Financial Impact of Flood Management on Residential Losses
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sarmiento,   Camilo; Miller,   Ted E.
The purpose of this paper is to examine the impacts that the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) has had on the costs of flooding and on their distribution among payers.  This study thus probes the NFIP's financial impact, the centerpiece question about program effectiveness.  For the analysis, this paper models the institutional and economic framework of flood relief compensation into the HAZUS-flood model, and calculates the NFIP impact on the distribution of payers for flood losses in special flood hazard areas.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19185

Water management in the Yellow River Basin: Background, current critical issues and future research needs
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Giordano,   Mark; Zhu,   Zhongping; Cai,   Ximing; Hong,   Shangchi; Xue,   Yunpeng; Zhang,   Xuecheng.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: River basin development; Water management; Water use; History; Water stress; Water scarcity; Flood water; Soil conservation; Policy; Water quality; Environmental effects; Water conservation; Irrigation water; Pollution control; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92826

Risk, Utility and the Value of Information in Farmer Decision Making
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Byerlee,   Derek R.; Anderson,   Jock R.
A model is developed from decision theory for evaluating probabilistic information, especially for decision makers who are risk averse. The value of information to such a decision maker is disaggregated into mean and variance effects. It is shown that the degree of risk aversion of the decision maker may have important effects on the value attached to the information; however, there is not necessarily a positive correlation between risk aversion and the value of information, since the decision to acquire new information is itself often a risky decision. The concepts and procedures are illustrated by application to a fodder conservation decision with rainfall forecast information.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1982
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12524

Agribusiness Firm Reactions to Regulations: The Case of Investments in Traceability Systems
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Heyder,   Matthias; Hollmann-Hespos,   Thorsten; Theuvsen,   Ludwig.
Markets for agricultural and food products are characterized by high information asymmetries since producers, processors and retailers are in most cases much better informed about the quality of their products than consumers (Henson/Traill 1993). Often consumers are only at (prohibitively) high costs or not at all able to control important quality criterions such as food safety, nutritional value or region of origin. Such credence attributes can result in market failure due to a lack of credible information in the market (Akerlof 1970). As a result, attempts to protect consumers against food hazards, product adulteration and deception have gained much relevance in food supply chains (Deimel et al. 2008). Besides the more or less voluntary private...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59118

Blood for Social Status: Preliminary Evidence from Rural China
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chen,   Xi; Zhang,   Xiaobo.
Xi Chen acknowledges generous Doctoral Research Grant from the Institute for the Social Sciences at Cornell University and precious data set provided by the Development Strategy and Governance Division at IFPRI. Conference Travel Grant provided by the Department of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell is also acknowledged.  We are grateful to Ravi Kanbur for invaluable comments, guidance and encouragement. This paper also benefited from helpful discussion and invaluable comments from Robert Frank, David Sahn, Marc Rockmore, and seminar participants in the Department of Economics at Cornell. Due to time limit, I have not incorporated all helpful comments and suggestions in this early draft paper. The views expressed herein and any remaining errors...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Blood Donation; Social Status; Poverty; Inequality; Relative Deprivation; Rural China; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Health Economics and Policy; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; International Development; Labor and Human Capital; Political Economy; Production Economics; Public Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; I32; J22; D13; D63.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49411

AGRICULTURAL RISK MANAGEMENT AND THE ROLE OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Glauber,   Joseph W.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33231

A taxonomy survey of decision support systems in agriculture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Manos,   Basil D.; Ciani,   Adriano; Bournaris,   Thomas; Vassiliadou,   I.; Papathanasiou,   J.
This paper presents the results of a research concerning the type, category and fields of applications of Decision Support Systems (DSS) and their contribution to decision-making in agriculture, mainly in the fields of planning and management of farms, farm regions and agricultural resources. More specifically, the paper includes a taxonomy survey that has been based on an analysis of all published works on applications of DSS from 1987 to 2001, as well as a categorized presentation of these applications. The relevant classification of DSS is made by treating subject (theoretical DSS or applicative), the source of publication (proceedings, scientific journal or dissertation), the type of DSS (Decision Support System, Expert System or Knowledge Based DSS),...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26406

THE COOPERATIVE RENAISSANCE: EMPOWERING PRODUCERS IN AN ERA OF GREATER RISK
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Carlson,   Robert.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33245

Short Food Supply Networks: Expectations, Experiences, Trust in the Case of Farmers Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fritz,   Melanie; Martino,   Gaetano.
Farmers Markets are receiving an increasing attention by both food chains actors and social scientists. Economic and sociological studies are contributing to the comprehension of these forms of exchange. Both consumers and producers are fostering their expectations about the renewal of a mode of exchange which sustained local production-consumptions linkages. The main economic function of these organizational structures seems to be the reduction of the price paid by the consumers and the enhancements of allocation of farm products. The basic interpretation of these forms of exchange focuses on market structure, nonetheless the exchange relationships seem to emphasize several dimensions, including economic and cultural aspects. The objective of the paper is...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farmers Markets; Networks; Trust; Food chains sustainability; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty; D4.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59192

OPTIMAL RISK MANAGEMENT, RISK AVERSION, AND PRODUCTION FUNCTION PROPERTIES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Loehman,   Edna T.; Nelson,   Carl H.
For production risk with identified physical causes, the nature of risk, production characteristics, risk preference, and prices determine optimal input use. Here, a two-way classification for pairs of inputs – each input as being risk increasing or decreasing and pairs as being risk substitutes or complements – provides sufficient conditions to determine how risk aversion should affect input use. Unlike the Sandmo price risk averse firm may produce more expected output and use more inputs than a risk neutral firm. Sufficient conditions to determine types for pairs of inputs are also related to properties of the production function.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1992
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30950

RISK PERCEPTIONS AND MANAGEMENT RESPONSES: PRODUCER-GENERATED HYPOTHESES FOR RISK MODELING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Patrick,   George F.; Wilson,   Paul N.; Barry,   Peter J.; Boggess,   William G.; Young,   Douglas L.
Farm level risk analyses have used price and yield variability almost exclusively to represent risk.  Results from a survey of 149 agricultural producers in 12 states indicate that producers consider a broader range of sources of variability in their operations.  Significant differences exist among categories with respect to the importance of the sources of variability in crop and livestock production.  Producers also used a variety of management responses to variability.  There were significant difference among categories in the importance given to particular responses and their use of them.  These results have implications for research, extension, and policy programs.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1985
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29989

A Robust Study of Regression Methods for Crop Yield Data
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zhu,   Ying; Ghosh,   Sujit K.
The objective of this study is to evaluate the robust regression method when detrending the crop yield data. Using a Monte Carlo simulation method, the performance of the proposed Time-Varying Beta method is compared with the previous study of OLS, M-estimator and MM-estimator in an application of crop yield modeling. We analyze the properties of these estimators for outlier-contaminated data in both symmetric and skewed distribution case. The application of these estimation methods is illustrated in an agricultural insurance analysis. The consequence of obtaining more accurate detrending method will offer the potential to improve the accuracy of models used in rating crop insurance contracts.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103426

ON ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND RISK EXPOSURE IN THE NILE BASIN OF ETHIOPIA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Di Falco,   Salvatore; Veronesi,   Marcella.
This study investigates the impact of climate change adaptation on farm households’ downside risk exposure (e.g., risk of crop failure) in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. The analysis relies on a moment-based specification of the stochastic production function. We estimate a simultaneous equations model with endogenous switching to account for the heterogeneity in the decision to adapt or not, and for unobservable characteristics of farmers and their farm. We find that (i) climate change adaptation reduces downside risk exposure, i.e., farm households that implemented climate change adaptation strategies get benefits in terms of a decrease in the risk of crop failure; (ii) farm households that did not adapt would benefit the most in terms of reduction in...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Adaptation; Climate change; Endogenous switching; Ethiopia; Risk exposure; Stochastic production function; Skewness; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; D80; Q18; Q54.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115549

Results Based Risk Management Education
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Newkirk,   Jon; Fiess,   Dennis.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92879

Loan Portfolio Performance and El Niño, an Intervention Analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Collier,   Benjamin; Katchova,   Ani L.; Skees,   Jerry R.
Replaced by updated/revised version.  This is an electronic version of a journal article, please cite as: Collier, B., A.L. Katchova, and J. Skees. “Loan Portfolio Performance and El Nino, an Intervention Analysis.” Agricultural Finance Review 71(2011):98-119.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Financial Economics; International Development; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56217

Intertemporal risk aversion – or – wouldn’t it be nice to tell whether Robinson Crusoe is risk averse?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Traeger,   Christian P.
The paper introduces a new notion of risk aversion that is independent of the good under observation and its measure scale. The representational framework builds on a time consistent combination of additive separability on certain consumption paths and the von Neumann &amp; Morgenstern (1944) assumptions. In the one-commodity special case, the new notion of risk aversion closely relates to a disentanglement of standard risk aversion and intertemporal substitutability.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Expected utility; Recursive utility; Risk aversion; Intertemporal substitutability; Certainty additivity; Temporal lotteries; Gauge-freedom; Intertemporal risk aversion; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90421

Drought impacts and potential for their mitigation in southern and western Afghanistan
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bhattacharyya, Kamal; Azizi, Pir Mohammad; Shobair, Sayed Sharif; Mohsini,   Mohammad Yasin.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Drought; Rain; Water scarcity; Irrigation water; Domestic water; Crops; Forests; Pastures; Watersheds; Water harvesting; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92659

Price Risk Management Alternatives for Farmers in the Absence of Forward Contracts with Grain Merchants
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mark,   Darrell R.; Brorsen,   B. Wade; Anderson,   Kim B.; Small,   Rebecca M.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; G13; G20; Q13.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94647

Whole-Farm Approaches to a Safety Net
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dismukes,   Robert; Durst,   Ron L.
In recent farm policy debates, proposals for a whole-farm revenue safety net program have been put forward that could provide a farm-income safety net for a wide variety of farming activities. These proposals include income- stabilization accounts and whole-farm revenue insurance. Risk protection from income-stabilization accounts would depend on the reserves in individual accounts and the structure of program benefits. Experience with farm savings accounts in Canada and Australia suggests that lack of adequate account balances and buildup of balances beyond the level required for risk management can reduce program effectiveness. Whole-farm revenue insurance could overcome these problems since coverage would not depend on the farmer's ability to build an...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33893

Land Retirement Program Design in the Presence of Crop Insurance Subsidies
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hennessy,   David A.
The U.S. federal government implements environmental, biofuels and crop insurance programs that influence land use. They are not well integrated in that cost savings from crop insurance subsidies are not acknowledged when screening land for retirement or when calculating the cost of land retirement programs. We identify and evaluate an optimal benefit index for enrollment in a land retirement program that includes a sub-index to rank land according to insurance subsidy savings. All else equal, land ranked higher in the Lorenz stochastic order should be retired first.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Agro-environmental policy; Budget; Conservation Reserve Program; Crop failure; Environmental Benefit Index; Lorenz order.; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52236

Permanent Income and the Importance of Precautionary Savings: An Instrumental Variable Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dedah,   Cheikhna O.; Mishra,   Ashok K.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49522

RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES TO REDUCE NET INCOME VARIABILITY FOR FARMERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Falatoonzadeh,   Hamid; Conner,   J. Richard; Pope,   Rulon D.
The most useful and practical strategy available for reducing variability of net farm income is ascertained.  Of the many risk management tools presently available, five of the most commonly used are simultaneously incorporated in an empirically tested model.  Quadratic programming provides the basis for decision-making in risk management wherein expected utility is assumed to be a function of the mean and variance of net income.  Results demonstrate that farmers can reduce production and price risks when a combination strategy including a diversified crop production plan and participation in the futures market and the Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP) is implemented.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1985
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29374

Maximizing Probability of Return as a Method to Consider Risk in Farm Planning Models
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kaiser,   Eddie H.; Robinson,   Bobby H.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1982
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116879

Designing Rainfall Insurance Contracts for Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nadolnyak,   Denis A.; Vedenov,   Dmitry V.
In the paper, preliminary results of the analysis of potential use of climate forecast information in designing rainfall index insurance in the southeastern region of the U.S. are reported. Joint distributions of bi-monthly rainfall and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indexes are estimated using copula analysis of historical data. The risk reducing effectiveness of introducing premiums conditional on ENSO forecast is evaluated. The results indicate some dependence of the downward volatility of rainfall on the lagged ENSO (forecast) index, particularly in the coastal areas and in the late winter and spring.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Rainfall index insurance; ENSO; Copulas; Agricultural Finance; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Q14; Q54.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56511

RISK RATIOS AND HEDGING: FLORIDA FEEDER CATTLE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ward,   Ronald W.; Schimkat,   Gregory E.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1979
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29555

INVESTMENT IN SITE SPECIFIC CROP MANAGEMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Isik,   Murat; Khanna,   Madhu; Winter-Nelson,   Alex.
This paper examines the impact of price uncertainty on farmers' adoption decision in site specific crop management using an option value model. It shows that price uncertainty could lead farmers to delay the investment 3 to 25 years as opposed to the net present value rule. Immediate investment is only worthwhile on high soil fertility and soil quality fields with high variability.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21684

AN ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK FOR DISCUSSING FARM BUSINESS INTERRUPTION INSURANCE FOR CLASSICAL SWINE FEVER
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Meuwissen,   Miranda P.M.; Skees,   Jerry R.; Black,   J. Roy; Huirne,   Ruud B.M.; Dijkhuizen,   Aalt A.
This paper studies farm business interruption insurance for Classical Swine Fever epidemics. Insight into the size of risk is obtained by a very detailed Monte-Carlo simulation model that includes both epidemiological and economic factors. The paper also considers issues such as farmers’' and governments’' influence on the size of risk.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21738

Entwicklungsperspektiven der Milchproduktion in verschiedenen Regionen Niedersachsens - ein agri benchmark dairy-Projekt
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lassen,   Birthe J.; Busch,   Gesa.
Zusammenfassung: Ziel der vorliegenden Studie ist es, für verschiedene Regionen in Niedersachsen die kurz-, mittel- und langfristigen Entwicklungen der Milchproduktion unter Berücksichtigung regionaler Besonderheiten abzuschätzen. Grundlage sind neben sieben Expertenpanels in ausgewählten Regionen auch betriebsindividuelle Befragungen in 10 Regionen in Niedersachsen. Es werden Schlussfolgerungen über die künftige Standortorientierung der Milchproduktion innerhalb Niedersachsens abgeleitet und Anpassungsreaktionen der Milcherzeuger an begrenzende Faktoren der Milchproduktion analysiert. Die Abschaffung der kleinräumigen Quotenhandelsgebiete hat Produktionsverlagerungen über Ländergrenzen hinweg ermöglicht. Dabei stellt sich die Frage, ob Niedersachsen...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Milchproduktion; Milchquote; Regionale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit; Dairy production; Milk quota; Regional competitiveness of dairy production; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q11; Q12; Q15.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108258

Switching to Perennial Energy Crops under Uncertainty and Costly Reversibility
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Song,   Feng; Zhao,   Jinhua; Swinton,   Scott M.
We study a farmer’s decision to convert traditional crop land into growing dedicated energy crops, taking in account sunk conversion costs, uncertainties in traditional and energy crop returns, and learning. The optimal decision rules differ significantly from the expected net present value rule, which ignores learning, and from real option models that allow only one way conversions into energy crops. These models also predict drastically different patterns of land conversions into and out of energy crops over time. Using corn-soybean rotations and switchgrass as examples, we show that the model predictions are sensitive to assumptions about stochastic processes of the returns. Government policies might have unintended consequences: subsidizing conversion...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Real options; Irreversibility; Sunk costs; Land conversion; Biofuel; Cellulosic biomass; Dynamic modeling; Stochastic process; Biofuel policy; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q42; Q24.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56195

Visualizing Risk Premiums in Commodity Futures Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bozic,   Marin; Fortenbery,   T. Randall.
Replaced with revised version of poster 07/21/10.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91378

Centralized Clearing for Over-the-Counter Derivatives
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rausser,   Gordon C.; Balson,   William; Stevens,   Reid.
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Political Economy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120533

Weather Derivatives as an Instrument to Hedge Against the Risk of High Energy Cost in Greenhouse Production
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Berg,   Ernst; Schmitz,   Bernhard; Starp,   Michael.
In many areas agriculture is exposed to weather related risks. Weather derivatives that get more and more in the focus of interest can reduce these risks. In this study we develop a temperature based weather derivative and analyse how it can reduce the weather-related energy cost risk in greenhouse production. We base this study on a temperature index whose stochastic characteristics are analysed. Finally we simulate the heating demand for energy of a horticultural firm.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; C22; D8; Q14.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25629

Accounting for Heterogeneity in Hedging Behavior: Comparing &amp; Evaluating Grouping Methods
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pennings,   Joost M.E.; Garcia,   Philip; Irwin,   Scott H.
Heterogeneity, i.e., the notion that individuals respond differently to economic stimuli, can have profound consequences for the interpretation of behavior and the formulation of agricultural policy. This paper compares and evaluates three grouping techniques that can be used to account for heterogeneity in financial behavior. Two are well established: company-type grouping and cluster analysis. A third, the generalized mixture regression model, has recently been developed and is worth considering as market participants are grouped such that their response to the determinants of economic behavior is similar. We evaluate the grouping methods in a hedging framework by assessing their ability to reflect relationships consistent with theory. The empirical...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Economic behavior; Heterogeneity; Hedging; Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; A10; B40; C1; D0; G0; L2; Q13.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114787

Commodity Linked Credit: A Risk Management Instrument for the Agrarians in India
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shee,   Apurba; Turvey,   Calum G.
This research analyzes daily commodity spot prices and designs risk contingent structured financial instruments as a means to mitigate business and financial risk by reducing debt obligations depending on the embedded commodity options whose payoffs are linked with commodity price fluctuations. Models are developed for operating loans and farm mortgages. The results show that the distributions with the embedded option have higher probability of greater returns and the embedded option with the repayment contingent on the price fluctuation reduces the downside risk of the return from the investment.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48139

Investing in People for the 21st Century
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Huffman,   Wallace E.
The paper draws upon the work of T.W. Schultz to show that human capital theory and labor market adjustments have important implications for investing in people for the 21st Century.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Human Capital; Education; Twenty-first century; Global labor markets; Labor and Human Capital; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55937

The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility upon Foreign Trade of Hungarian Agricultural Products
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fogarasi,   Jozsef.
This paper takes a new empirical look at the long-standing question of the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows of transition economies in Central Europe by studying the case of Hungarian agricultural exports to their export destination countries between 1999 and 2008. Based on a gravity model that controls for other factors likely to determine bilateral trade, the results show that nominal exchange rate volatility has had a significant positive effect on agricultural trade over this period. This positive effect of exchange rate volatility on agricultural exports suggests that agri-food entrepreneurs are not interested in speeding up the process of joining Hungary to the euro zone.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: International trade; Gravity model; Exchange rate volatility; International Relations/Trade; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102403

The Trade-Off Between Liquidity and Precision of Position in Option Contracts
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Koch,   Alexander K.; Lazarov,   Zdravetz.
More liquid financial contracts are claimed to draw trading volume from contracts for which they are close substitutes. We provide the first analysis of how trading volume across existing financial contracts is affected by changes in the factors that govern the degree to which they are substitutes. Using data on DAX options with different strike prices, we identify these factors and their impact on the distribution of trades across contracts. The results are relevant for exchange design since they help gauge when options with different strike prices are good (bad) substitutes and the strike price grid should be coarse (fine).
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Clustering; Exchange Design; Options; Risk and Uncertainty; G10; G20; L15.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50155

Applications of copulas to Analysis of Efficiency of Weather Derivatives as Primary Crop Insurance Instruments
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Filonov,   Vitaly; Vedenov,   Dmitry V.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103972

SEARCH THEORY RISK PREFERENCE AND FARMLAND PRESERVATION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tavernier,   Edmund M.; Li,   Farong; Temel,   Tugrul T.
This paper uses search theory to examine the role that risk preference (RP) plays in farmland preservation.  Assuming that the distribution of the offer price is fixed, the analysis indicates that risk-averse agents have lower reservation prices than risk-neutral agents, and that agricultural land held by the former exits farming at a faster rate.  The results also show that farmland preservation policies which increase reservation prices have a greater capitalization effect if agents are risk-loving, and that such policies, while effectively protecting the interest of land speculators, may be less effective in serving the needs of farming and farm-held open space.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1996
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31653

Risk Management Practices for Specialty Crop Producers in California, Florida, New York,  and Pennsylvania
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jung,   Jione; Weldon,   Richard N.; VanSickle,   John J.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15711

VALUING LIMITED INFORMATION IN DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gray,   Allan W.; Detre,   Joshua D.; Briggeman,   Brian C.
Fresh Juice Inc. (FJI) is in the process of determining whether they should launch a new fruit juice in a market that has been relatively stagnant for the last 15 years.  Management of FJI is faced with uncertainty surrounding market share, market size, price, and competitor entry.  In addition, FJI has the ability to chose between alternative production processes; this choice directly affects the likelihood the investment will return a positive Net Present Value.  This case teaches students how to develop a stochastic simulation models given limited information to analyze risk investment decisions
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28676

Modeling Flood Perils and Flood Insurance Program in Taiwan
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chang,   Ching-Cheng; Hsu,   Wenko; Su,   Ming-Daw.
Taiwan had approximately 3,000 buildings damaged by floods with an economic loss of NT$12.8 billion annually, a figure 4.5 times more than economic losses due to fire damages. Many insurers become extremely cautious when underwriting their flood policies for people living in areas that are frequently struck by floods. The rising damages also trigger the demand for a mandatory national flood insurance program. This paper describes the development of an integrated flood risk assessment model for Taiwan which contains of a hazard, vulnerability and financial analysis module. We take the perspective that the mandatory program will be provided to fire policyholders as part of building and content insurance to mitigate the financial losses. The issue of a...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk Assessment; Typhoon; Flood Insurance; Financial Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6141

Cotton Futures Dynamics: Structural Change, Index Traders and the Returns to Storage
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Power,   Gabriel J.; Robinson,   John R.C.
The commodity bull cycle of 2006-2008 and subsequent dramatic price decline have been a source of hardship for traditional commodity market participants such as producers and merchant/shippers. The usefulness of futures markets has been called into question, especially given that some market movements did not appear to be justified by economic fundamentals. An emerging research literature examines the possible influence of futures traders, and particularly the non-traditional Index Traders, on the well-functioning of futures markets and underlying commodity markets. Cotton is a relatively under-studied commodity that is of particular importance for producers in the South and Southwest. To this end, this paper asks the following questions: (1) What role...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Cotton; Futures markets; Theory of storage; Convenience yield; Index Traders; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53044

CLIMATE CHANGE AND PRODUCTION RISK IN CHINESE AQUACULTURE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Holst,   Rainer; Yu,   Xiaohua.
Drawing on the method developed by Just and Pope (1978, 1979), this paper separately analyzes the marginal contributions of both regular input factors and climate factors to mean output and to production risk in Chinese inland aquaculture. Furthermore, the net change in output following a 1°C increase in annual average temperature will be determined. According to the results obtained, the impending changes in global climate will have both positive and negative impacts. While an increment in annual average temperatures will increase mean output and decrease production risk, an increase in temperature variability will reduce mean output and cause a higher level of production risk. The corresponding measures of precipitation however have no significant impact...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Aquaculture; Climate change; Production risk; China; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q1; Q54.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91275

Rangeland Production Risk Management in Montana
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Brester,   Gary W.; Hewlett,   John P.; Johnson,   James B.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29194

Análise de risco do desempenho econômico de um sistema de recria de gado de corte em regime de pastejo rotacionado
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Simoes,   Andre Rozemberg Peixoto; Moura,   Altair Dias de.
The success of the agricultural systems is affected by several social, cultural and economical variables, which can restrict or nurture the development of the agribusiness. In this context, agricultural managers search for ways to improve production efficiency. This effort comprises the improvement of the managerial activities and decision making process. This research aimed to build a risk analysis framework, using different scenarios of economical analysis of an animal husbandry firm. The data used was collected from a rotational grazing system for beef cattle. The results suggest that the profitability of the system is low, and some of the risk scenarios presented negative profitability.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Economical analysis; Beef cattle; Scenarios; Monte Carlo simulation; Risk analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55309

Application of Copulas to Analysis of Index Insurance Contracts (PowerPoint Presentation)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vedenov,   Dmitry V.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9379

Grain Futures Markets: What Have They Learned?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Santos,   Joseph M.
Taken together, studies that examine how well commodity futures markets perform find that risk premiums are common—and so unbiasedness is not—and markets are not uniformly efficient across commodities or forecast horizons. This large body of research sheds important light on whether and to what extent commodity-futures markets forecast optimally future spot prices and, so, enable commercials to manage price risk by effectively parsing out much of it to speculators, a process that improves the total welfare of an economy with competitive but otherwise-incomplete markets. Nevertheless, that speculators can, in effect, improve welfare in this way has done little to quell popular hostilities toward futures markets. Such hostilities—and, in particular, those...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Commodities futures markets; Unbiasedness; Efficiency; Chicago Board of Trade; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53040

Agricultural Risk Analysis in the Fars Province of Iran: A Risk-Programming Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kehkha,   Ahmad Ali; Mohammadi,   Gholamreza Soltani; Villano,   Renato A.
Mathematical programming methods are widely used for modelling farmers' decision-making and for economic analysis in agriculture.  In this study, a MOTAD risk-programming model is applied to study the effects of risk on cropping pattern and farmers' income in Ramjerd and Sarpaniran districts near Marvdasht in the Fars Province of Iran.  Primary data from 194 farmers randomly selected from 31 villages are used in this study.  The results indicate that variability of crops gross margins or outcomes has a significant effect on cropping pattern but it varies over different farmers and regions with various conditions.  Moreover, it was found that farm plans with more number of crops have a lower return but high degree of certainty.  Based on this research,...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; MOTAD model; Risk-programming model.; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12897

THE FEDERAL CROP INSURANCE PROGRAM - AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN ACREAGE RESPONSE AND PARTICIPATION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Goodwin,   Barry K.; Vandeveer,   Monte; Deal,   John.
The extent to which crop insurance programs have resulted in additional land being brought into production has been a topic of considerable debate.  We extend a multi-equation structural model of crop acreage response, insurance participation, CRP enrollment, and input usage developed in Goodwin and Vandeveer (2000) to wheat and barley production in the "Northern Great Plains" region. We also update earlier results for corn and soybean production in the "Heartland" region. Our results confirm earlier findings that increased participation in insurance programs provoke a statistically significant acreage response. This response is, however, relatively modest.  We find that cross-the-board decreases of 50% in insurance premiums significantly increase...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20579

Agricultural Commodity Programs and Risk Management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Carter,   J. Darwin.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1985
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59817

Incompleteness in Insurance: An Analysis of the Multiplicative Case
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramaswami,   Bharat; Roe,   Terry L.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1989
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7492

A Theoretically-Consistent Empirical Non-Expected Utility Model of Ambiguity: Nuclear Waste Mortality Risk and Yucca Mountain
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Riddel,   Mary C.; Shaw,   W. Douglass.
Risk aversion is well established in the health and safety literature, and ambiguity is addressed in theoretical and experimental economics literature, but few theoretically-consistent empirical models addressing the relationship between ambiguity, risk, and preferences exist. Even fewer address ambiguity about health or mortality risks.  To fill this gap, we propose a theoretical non-expected-utility model (NEUM) that is relatively easy to estimate.  The NEUM we develop hinges upon two sources of variability, one over risk and the other over uncertainty about the risk. The model, like the second-order probability models of Segal (1987) and Quiggin (1982), grounds ambiguity in the compound lottery context. However, our model differs from previous...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23964

Perceptions of Risk within Pastoralist Households in Northern Kenya and Southern Ethiopia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Doss,   Cheryl R.; McPeak,   John G.; Barrett,   Christopher B.
Perceptions of risk may vary within households as well as across households and communities.  In this paper, we take advantage of panel survey data collected quarterly over a period of 2 ½ years to see how perceptions of risk vary across individuals over time. The surveyed households are in pastoralist communities in Northern Kenya and Southern Ethiopia and the survey period coincides with a severe drought in this region and the beginning of the recovery. We identify the structural heterogeneity of the perceptions of risk of these individuals.  Because of the nature of panel data, we can also test how the perceptions of risk are affected by shocks in previous periods.  In particular, we ask how an individual's risk perceptions change when shocks happen to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19504

EVALUATING RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR NON-IRRIGATED SMALL GRAIN PRODUCERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Makus,   Larry D.; Wang,   H. Holly; Chen,   Xiaomei.
Risk management strategies (market and insurance based) are evaluated for selected small grain producers in the Pacific Northwest using expected utility maximization.  Equivalent variation (EV) compares alternative risk management portfolios to cash sales under specified restrictions and conditions.  Resulting EV's are strongly influenced by government payments, and hedging-based strategies are not used when counter cyclical payments are included in government programs.  Optimum risk management portfolios include extensive coverage by insurance-based products only when such products have premiums that are heavily subsidized, or have premiums with no significant expense load.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22257

Resolving Expected Utility Paradoxes (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Robison,   Lindon J.; Shupp,   Robert S.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48914

Federal Crop and Crop Revenue Insurance Programs: Multiple Peril Crop Insurance (MPCI) and Catastrophic Coverage Policies
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Smith,   Vincent H.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29231

SEGURO RURAL NO BRASIL: EXPERIÊNCIAS E PROPOSIÇÕES PARA UM MODELO INTEGRADO DE GESTÃO DO RISCO AGRÍCOLA (MIGRA)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Silveira,   Pedro Abel Junior; Buainain,   Antonio Marcio; Madi,   Maria Alejandra Caporale; Vieira,   Adriana Carvalho Pinto; Souza,   Raquel Pereira; Ojima,   Andrea Leda Ramos De Oliveira; Veira,   Jose Maria Ferreira Jardim Da.
O seguro rural apresenta-se com um instrumento para o desenvolvimento do setor agrícola, protegendo o produtor rural dos efeitos adversos de eventos ambientais e do mercado tornando-se indispensável à estabilidade da renda, à geração de emprego e ao desenvolvimento tecnológico. Nesse sentido, sugere-se a consideração de um conjunto de indicadores que podem influir positivamente no processo de mitigação dos riscos inerentes ao seguro rural agrícola. Dessa forma, propõe-se o desenvolvimento de um Modelo Integrado de Gestão do Risco Agrícola para o Brasil (MIGRA) para o Brasil, um país que, além da heterogeneidade setorial, tem sua economia fortemente calcada no setor agrícola, o qual também é bastante heterogêneo quanto à produção e a renda agrícola. Esse...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Renda agrícola; Risco agrícola; Previsão de safras; Agricultural income; Agricultural risk; Crop forecast; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/109444

Risk in Agriculture: Modeling Revenue Insurance for Crop Farms in Belgium
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hansen,   Kristiana; Frahan,   Bruno Henry de.
With trade liberalization in the Common Agricultural Policy, farmers within the European Union are increasingly exposed to the risk of fluctuations in output price and yields. Using numerical simulation methods, we model the effects of crop insurance on farm revenues and land allocation patterns among arable crop farms in the Region of Wallonia in the south of Belgium. We employ a mathematical programming framework within which we have embedded an econometrically estimated, farm-specific cost function that allows us to analyze the farm-specific effects of crop insurance.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Yield risk; Belgium; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61535

Does Social Capital Mitigate Precariousness?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sabatini,   Fabio.
There is a surprising gap in the economic literature on social capital. First, we lack studies addressing the effects of social capital on those facets of development that can contribute in making growth more sustainable in the long run, like, for example, human development and social cohesion. Second, it is still unclear what type of networks may exert a positive effect on the different dimensions of development. In particular, the literature has not yet provided a rigorous assessment of the role of strong family ties, that are generally referred to as a form of bonding social capital causing backwardness. This paper carries out an empirical investigation into the relationship between the three types of social capital so far identified by the literature...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Social capital; Human development; Labour market; Precariousness; Italy; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Labor and Human Capital; Risk and Uncertainty; J24; O15; Z13.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6358

Consumer Acceptance of Genetically Modified Food Products in the Developing World
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Curtis,   Kynda R.; Wahl,   Thomas I.; McCluskey,   Jill J.
World-wide consumer response toward food products made from genetically modified ingredients has been largely negative. However, the majority of the previous studies on consumer attitudes towards genetically modified food products were conducted in developed countries in Europe as well as Japan. The small number of studies conducted in developing countries obtained different results from the developed world. This paper considers the motivations for consumer attitudes towards genetically modified foods in developing countries. We conclude that the generally positive perception towards genetically modified foods in developing countries could be the result of a cost-benefit analysis consistent with expected utility theory. Developing countries have more...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Developing countries; Risk; Biotechnology; Genetically modified foods; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57858

Index Insurance, Probabilistic Climate Forecasts, and Production
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Carriquiry,   Miguel A.; Osgood,   Daniel E.
Index insurance and probabilistic seasonal forecasts are becoming available in developing countries to help farmers manage climate risks in production. Although these tools are intimately related, work has not been done to formalize the connections between them. We investigate the relationship between the risk management tools through a model of input choice under uncertainty, forecasts, and insurance. While it is possible for forecasts to undermine insurance, we find that when contracts are appropriately designed, there are important synergies between forecasts, insurance, and effective input use. Used together, these tools overcome barriers preventing the use of imperfect information in production decision making.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Basis risk; Climate forecast; Index insurance; Input decisions; Insurance; Risk management; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6107

U.S. Corn Producer’s Response to Increased Energy Prices: Evidence from Producer Surveys in 2001 and 2005
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Daberkow,   Stan G.; Lambert,   Dayton M.; Musser,   Wesley N.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92865

INVESTIGATING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN YIELD RISK AND AGRI-ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fleming,   Ronald A.; Clark,   Nathan; Skees,   Jerry R.
Crop insurance provides risk reduction benefits yet may increase planted acres in risky areas. This paper investigates the relationship between environmental quality and crop insurance induced changes in cropping pattern. Results suggest that yield risk and soil erosion are positively correlated for the majority of acreage in the study area.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21984

UNDERSTANDING CROP INSURANCE PRINCIPLES: A PRIMER FOR FARM LEADERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Barnett,   Barry J.; Coble,   Keith H.
Federal policy-makers increasingly emphasize the Federal Crop Insurance Program as the primary federal risk management program for farmers. Farm leaders need to understand the underlying mechanics of insurance products if they are to effectively argue their interests and contribute constructively to future agricultural policy dialogue.  Further they need to understand the unique circumstances created by the fact that the Federal Crop Insurance program functions as a public-private partnership between the U.S. government and private insurance companies. This manuscript describes both the fundamental features of insurance products and the political economy of the federal crop insurance program.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Revenue insurance; Insurability criteria; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15784

Can Entrepreneurship Be Taught?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Klein,   Peter G.; Bullock,   J. Bruce.
Is entrepreneurship an innate ability or an acquired skill?  Can entrepreneurship acumen be achieved and enhanced through education and training, or are certain people “born” to be entrepreneurs or to act entrepreneurially?  Economists and management theorists give widely divergent answers to these questions.  This paper reviews the major approaches to teaching entrepreneurship, primarily at the undergraduate level, and relates them to economic theories of entrepreneurship.  Surprisingly, we find little connection between the leading approaches to entrepreneurship education and economists’ understanding of the entrepreneurial function.  We assess likely explanations for the lack of contact between these two groups of scholars and suggest possible...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Alertness; Entrepreneurship; Innovation; Opportunity identification; Resource acquisition; Uncertainty bearing; Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession; M13; A22; O31.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43779

BEEF PRODUCER PREFERENCES AND PURCHASE DECISIONS FOR LIVESTOCK REVENUE INSURANCE PRODUCTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fields,   Deacue; Gillespie,   Jeffrey M.
Personal interviews were conducted with 52 beef cattle producers in Louisiana to determine their preferences and purchase decisions for livestock revenue insurance. Conjoint analysis was utilized to determine the importance of selected attributes of insurance policies for these producers.  The characteristics of producers who prefer given attributes were also identified. Producers rated products given four economic situations to evaluate. A two-limit tobit model was used to estimate the part worth utility values for each attribute. Univariate probit models were estimated to evaluate the influence of producer characteristics on purchase decisions.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35089

THE FEASIBILITY OF FARM REVENUE INSURANCE IN AUSTRALIA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Meuwissen,   Miranda P.M.; Huirne,   Ruud B.M.; Hardaker,   J. Brian.
Arrow (1965) stated that making markets for trading risk more complete can be socially beneficial. Within this perspective, we discuss the feasibility of farm revenue insurance for Australian agriculture. The feasibility is first discussed from an insurer's point of view. Well-known problems of moral hazard, adverse selection and systemic risk are central. Then, the feasibility is studied from a farmer’s point of view. A simulation model illustrates that gross revenue insurance can be both cheaper and more effective than separate price and yield insurance schemes. We argue that due to the systemic nature of price and yields risks within years and the positive correlation between years, some publicprivate partnership for reinsurance may be necessary for...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm revenue insurance; Income stability; Public/private partnership; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124090

A LOOK AT MAJOR EVENTS IMPACTING PRODUCTIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN SOUTHERN AGRICULTURE DURING THE 1970'S
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rudd,   Robert W.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1979
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29548

Collaborative Working Environments in Food Supply Networks
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pankiewicz,   Maciek; Schiefer,   Gerhard; Fritz,   Melanie.
This paper will discuss the ongoing research in area of conceptualization, design of collaborative working environments and its adoption for food supply networks. There will be a group needs approach for designing such environments presented. Tracking and tracing, agreements on quality policy, improvements in logistics, dissemination of innovations, cooperation in quality planning and market orientation, access to knowledge bases, etc. are all examples which build on an increased horizontal or vertical integration in information and communication activities. For these purposes adoption of collaborative working environments may be of a crucial importance for food supply networks.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Collaborative working environment; E-community; E-collaboration.; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59185

Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gardebroek,   Cornelis; Hernandez,   Manuel A.
This paper examines volatility transmission in oil, ethanol and corn prices in the United States between 1997 and 2011. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach to evaluate the level of interdependence and the dynamics of volatility across these markets. Preliminary results indicate a higher interaction between ethanol and corn markets in recent years, particularly after 2006. We only observe, however, significant volatility spillovers from corn to ethanol prices but not the converse. We also do not find major cross-volatility effects from oil to corn markets. The results do not provide evidence of volatility in energy markets stimulating price volatility in grain markets.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122476

Climate Effects on Rainfall Index Insurance Purchase Decisions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Novak,   James L.; Nadolnyak,   Denis A.
Rainfall Index insurance is a pilot insurance product offered to producers of hay and pasture in 9 states.  This analysis examines the expected payoff of the RI insurance for bi-monthly periods based on rainfall shortage probabilities in alternative climate phases. Differences in expected returns indicate that selection of ENSO-specific optimal intervals may result in higher returns than those based on pooled rainfall series.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Rainfall insurance; ENSO; Expected indemnity; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46834

Average vs. Marginal Risk Aversion: Reconciling Simultaneously Risk Averse and Risk Loving Behavior
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Just,   David R.; Lybbert,   Travis J.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9979

Razao de hedge otima de minimo MPI (momento parcial inferior) no mercado futuro de boi gordo na BM&amp;F
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Marques,   Pedro Valentim; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes; Cruz Junior,   Jose Cesar.
Uma vez que o pecuarista decide-se por utilizar o mercado futuro de boi gordo da BM&amp;F como ferramenta de redução de risco de sua produção, uma das primeiras perguntas a serem respondidas é: quanto se fazer de hedge? Esta pergunta tem sido frequentemente respondida através da utilização do modelo de razão de hedge de mínima variância. O presente trabalho teve como objetivo apresentar um modelo alternativo à abordagem tradicional - denominado razão de hedge de mínimo momento parcial inferior (MPI) - para se calcular a razão de hedge ótima. O modelo alternativo utiliza o momento parcial inferior como medida de risco. Ambas as razões de hedge foram calculadas e suas performances foram verificadas através da avaliação dos resultados obtidos com suas...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Mercados futuros; Razao de hedge otima; Momentos parciais inferiores; Boi gordo; Futures markets; Optimal hedge ratio; Lower partial moments; Live cattle; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119148

How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mallory,   Mindy L.; Hayes,   Dermot J.; Irwin,   Scott H.
In this article we use the theories of market efficiency and supply of storage to develop a conceptual link between the corn and ethanol markets and explore statistical evidence for the link. We propose that a long-run no-profit condition is established in distant futures markets for ethanol, corn, and natural gas and then use the theory of storage to define an inter-temporal equilibrium among these prices. The relationship shows that under certain conditions, future price expectations will influence current spot prices and that a short-term relationship between input and output prices will exist. This short-term relationship will contain fixed costs. We demonstrate validity of the theory using a structural price model and then by means of time-series...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Arbitrage; Cointegration; Corn; Energy; Ethanol; Futures; Price-analysis; Storage.; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97611

DYNAMICS AND UNCERTAINTY IN ENVIRONMENTAL AND NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT UNDER SCARCITY: THE CASE OF IRRIGATION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bontemps,   Christophe; Couture,   Stephane.
The objective of this paper is to study the problem of management of irrigation water. We analyse farmers' economic rules of tactical irrigation scheduling in a certain or uncertain environment under water scarcity. The optimal plans depend on uncertain weather conditions and expectations.  We develop a dynamic economic model of irrigation water applications under certain or uncertain weather conditions and in the context of a limited total quantity of water. We program this economic model, introducing the agronomic model EPIC, which is used to obtain information on the crop yield. The model is used to explain the optimal irrigation management plan of corn in the area of Toulouse (France). This model improves water management and leads to substantial...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Dynamic optimization; Irrigation management; Agroeconomic modeling; Uncertainty; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21504

A MEZŐGAZDASÁGI VÁLLALATI GAZDASÁGTAN FEJLŐDÉSE ÉS A MAI GYAKORLAT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Szekely,   Csaba.
The development of Hungarian agricultural business economics and management used to evolve in accordance with international leaders of the sector. On the other hand, a paradox situation has emerged in Hungary in the last two decades, in which such knowledge is only partially applied as a consequence of insufficient knowledge transfer and highly restructured agriculture. In the framework of an EU-6 research project, reviewing the agricultural risk management practices of some EU Member States, including Hungary, became possible. The study highlights those issues that are the most characteristic in terms of the level of information, management, marketing and finance.  As a conclusion, it can be stated that the level of management of Hungarian agricultural...
Tipo: Book
Palavras-chave: Tudástranszfer; Kockázat menedzsment; Felmérés; Szaktanácsadás; Knowledge transfer; Risk management; Survey; Extension; Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43414

Measuring risk attitude of agricultural producers using a mail survey: how consistent are the methods?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fausti,   Scott W.; Gillespie,   Jeffrey M.
A mail survey is used to examine the consistency of alternative risk preference elicitation procedures using five commonly used methods. These elicitation procedures have been used in previous studies to characterise risk preference. Results show little consistency across procedures, supporting strength-of-preference studies. A general recommendation for mail surveys is the development of relatively easy-to-understand risk-preference elicitation procedures that are framed according to the situational construct in question.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Mail surveys; Risk preference elicitation; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116927

PRODUCTION RISK REVISITED IN A STOCHASTIC FRONTIER FRAMEWORK: EVALUATING NOISE AND INEFFICIENCY IN COVER CROP SYSTEMS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jaenicke,   Edward C.; Larson,   James A.
This paper investigates both risk and technical inefficiency in a general stochastic frontier framework that is consistent with the Just-Pope framework.  After applying the model to two separate cash crop-cover crop systems, the more general stochastic frontier model is found to reorder the noisiness of alternative cover crop regimes.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20477

Quarantine and Inspection Services
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Landos,   John.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124452

Risk Management for Ag Families: An Extension Model for Improving Family Business Success
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bastian,   Christopher T.; Nagler,   Amy M.; Hewlett,   John P.; Weigel,   Randolph R.
A risky business environment for agricultural producers coupled with human risk elements unique to family businesses, points to the need for extension programs that integrate traditional risk management concepts into curriculums focused on the potentially unique educational needs of family farm management teams.  Results in this paper indicate that a multi-state, grant funded program entitled "Risk Management for Ag Families" had impact and provides a model that traditional risk management education programs could benefit from.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21352

Excluded Losses and the Demand for Insurance (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Meyer,   Donald J.; Meyer,   Jack.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Insurance; Decision-making; Risk and Uncertainty; D81.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48907

TARGET MOTAD FOR RISK LOVERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: McCamley,   Francis P.; Rudel,   Richard K.
Although risk analyses of discrete alternatives often identify at least one efficient set for persons who prefer risk, preference for risk is usually ignored when the decision variables are continuous.  This paper presents a version of Target MOTAD which can be used when there is preference for risk.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Target MOTAD; Risk seeking; Risk lovers; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q12.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35723

Techniques for Multivariate Simulation from Mixed Marginal Distributions with Application to Whole-Farm Revenue Simulation
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anderson,   John D.; Harri,   Ardian; Coble,   Keith H.
Alternative techniques for representing dependencies among variables in multivariate simulation are discussed and compared in the context of rating a whole-farm insurance product. A procedure by lman and Conover (IC) that is common in actuarial applications is compared to a new technique detailed by Phoon, Quek, and Huang (PQHl. Results suggest that rates derived from the IC procedure may be inaccurate because the procedure produces biased estimates of correlation between simulated variables. This situation is improved with the PQH procedure.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Correlation; Crop insurance; Multivariate simulation; Whole-farm revenue; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50076

Outsourcing and Offshoring: Sector Implications for Dynamics, Growth, and Sustainability
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Weaver,   Robert D.; Chung,   Sung Hoon.
As national economies have integrated through removal of trade barriers, the potential for offshoring production was quickly recognized as a strategy to enhance firm performance. At the same time, labor market reforms opened the door for outsourcing of labor services to specialist firms that supply labor force teams. The implications of these trends for industries that rely on specialized workforces have drawn considerable attention. Both manufacturing and food processing have seen substantial movement toward oursourced labor, yet little research has considered the implications of these trends. In both manufacturing and food processing, specific labor skills are needed that require training and consistency of supply to ensure efficiency in raw material and...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Labor force; Offshoring; Outsourcing; Food System; Sustainability; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59201

Impactos do programa de fomento à cafeicultura no pequeno produtor do município de Viçosa - MG: uma análise financeira sob condições de risco
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ferreira Junior,   Silvio; Baptista,   Antonio Jose Medina dos Santos.
Diante da importância socioeconômica da cafeicultura para o município de Viçosa, a Secretaria Municipal de Agricultura e Meio Ambiente (SEAMA) lançou, em 1998, o “Programa Municipal de Fomento à Cafeicultura” (ProCafé). O presente trabalho procurou mensurar e analisar os benefícios financeiros desse programa para o pequeno produtor local, com o intuito de fornecer subsídios às autoridades e aos produtores efetivos e potenciais no que concerne aos riscos e oportunidades inerentes ao investimento. Os indicadores de viabilidade e a análise de sensibilidade mostraram, claramente, que é financeiramente viável investir na atividade. O programa ProCafé proporciona benefícios financeiros adicionais, melhorando significativamente a viabilidade e reduzindo...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Cafeicultura; Rentabilidade; Análise de risco; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56822

International wheat price volatility and the increasing export of Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kemeny,   Gabor; Fogarasi,   Jozsef; Varga,   Tibor; Toth,   Orsolya; Toth,   Kristof.
Increasing price volatility of agricultural commodities over the last decade has focused a growing body of literature to identify the influencing factors of price variability. We analyze the effect of increasing wheat export from the Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries to the international wheat market and price volatility. The major wheat producer and exporter FSU countries, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan have experienced increasing share on the international wheat market. An ordinary least square method is applied to estimate the influence of wheat export from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan on the international wheat price volatility. We found evidence of positive relationship between international wheat price and the expanding net wheat export from FSU.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Wheat price volatility; Wheat export; FSU countries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q17; O13.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122550

Education and Development: The Issues and the Evidence
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lewin,   Keith M.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1993
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12875

Factors affecting the use of forward pricing methods in price risk management with special reference to the influence of risk aversion
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jordaan,   Henry; Grove,   Bennie.
Risk aversion is the primary reason for farmers to use forward pricing methods to hedge against price risk. Previous international research on farmers’ forward pricing behaviour found inconsistent results with respect to the relationship between risk aversion and the use of forward pricing methods. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression is used in this research to investigate the relationship between the proportion of maize Vaalharts maize producers are willing to forward price and risk aversion. The quantity decision is modelled conditional on the adoption decision to ensure that the modelling procedure does not force the same variables to influence the two decisions in the same way. Regression results showed that more risk averse farmers are forward...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Forward pricing; Risk aversion; Farm characteristics; Linear regression; Crop Production/Industries; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/5970

Price volatility in ethanol markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Serra,   Teresa; Zilberman,   David.
Our paper looks at how price volatility in the Brazilian ethanol industry changes over time and across markets by using a new methodological approach suggested by Seo (2007). The main advantage of Seo’s proposal over previously existing methods is that it allows to jointly estimate the cointegration relationship between the price series investigated and the multivariate GARCH process. Our results suggest that crude oil prices not only influence ethanol price levels, but also their volatility. Increased volatility in crude oil markets results in increased volatility in ethanol markets. Ethanol prices, on the other hand, influence sugar price levels and an increase in their volatility levels also impacts, though less strongly, on sugar markets.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Volatility; Ethanol; GARCH; Cointegration; Demand and Price Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q11; C32.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49188

Hedging Effectiveness Around U.S. Department of Agriculture Crop Reports
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: McKenzie,   Andrew M.; Singh,   Navinderpal.
It is well documented that ‘‘unanticipated’’ information contained in United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop reports induces large price reactions in corn and soybean markets. Thus, a natural question that arises from this literature is: To what extent are futures hedges able to remove or reduce increased price risk around report release dates?  This paper addresses this question by simulating daily futures returns, daily cash returns, and daily hedged returns around report release dates for two storable commodities (corn and soybeans) in two market settings (North Central Illinois and Memphis, Tennessee). Various risk measures, including ‘‘Value at Risk,’’ are used to determine hedging effectiveness, and ‘‘Analysis of Variance’’ is used to...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Analysis of variance; Storage hedging; United States Department of Agriculture Crop Reports; Value at risk; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13; D81.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100635

U.S. Soybean Producer Perceptions and Management of Soybean Rust in the United States under the USDA Pest Information Platform for Extension and Education
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Livingston,   Michael J.
Recent survey data are examined to improve current understanding of the factors that help to determine the value of information reported on a website that serves as the centerpiece of the USDA’s “Soybean Rust Integrated Pest Management—Pest Information Platform for Extension and Education.” Respondents’ initial beliefs about their chances of experiencing a rust outbreak are shown to affect the likelihood that soybean producers will visit the website and change their management of fungicide use as a result.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Asian soybean rust; Probability beliefs; PIPE website; ARMS data; USDA Rural Development Broadband Program; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95647

U.S. Honey Supply Chain: Structural Change, Promotions and the China Connection
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ward,   Ronald W.; Boynton,   Bruce.
Among almost all natural food goods, honey is probably one of the most unique in terms of its production history and importance. It is often a by-product from the primary function of pollination by bees. Honey color and flavor is directly related to the types of plants being pollinated. For some agricultural products, honey has limited economic value beyond the food source for the bees, while for others, such as citrus, the value of the honey is much greater since the flavor, texture, and color yields highly desirable honey attributes. Bee pollination is essential to almost every sector of agriculture. For some agriculture goods, beekeepers recoup their returns through payment for the pollination services. When the pollination leads to desirable honey...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59184

Anatomy of Stigmatized Behavior: Peer Influence and Relative Concern
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chen,   Xi.
This paper is based on an ongoing joint work with David Sahn and Xiaobo Zhang.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Social Stigma; Peer Influences; Relative Concern; Blood Donation; China; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Consumer/Household Economics; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; International Development; Labor and Human Capital; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; JEL: I32; J22; D13; D63.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103644

Multiproduct Optimal Hedging by   Time-Varying Correlations in a State Dependent model of Regime-Switching
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tejeda,   Hernan A.; Goodwin,   Barry K.
Replaced with revised version of paper 07/29/10.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61679

MODELING THE EFFECT OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMBER HARVEST: A SUGGESTED APPROACH AND EMPIRICAL EXAMPLE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: van Kooten,   G. Cornelis; van Kooten,   R.E.; Brown,   G.L.
A method is suggested for modeling uncertainty when there is a lack of information concerning the effect of forest management decisions on tree growth. Dynamic programming is used to investigate the optimality of alternative management strategies. The model is illustrated with an empirical example for a boreal forest region of western Canada. Three tentative conclusions follow: (a) silvicultural strategies to reduce uncertainty or to increase stand growth may not be worth pursuing, at least in northern forests; (b) the discounted cost of ignoring uncertainty may be substantial if taken over the entire forest; and (c) given uncertain forest growth, flexible harvest policies are preferred to a fixed harvest age.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1992
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30740

RISK ATTITUDES AMONGST AUSTRALIAN FARMERS: REPLY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bond,   Gary E.; Wonder,   Bernard.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1981
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22626

RISK COSTS AND THE CHOICE OF MARKET RETURN INDEX
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Amegbeto,   Koffi N.; Featherstone,   Allen M.
Six measures of returns are used to estimate the most "“appropriate"” market index for southeast Kansas farms. Results suggest that localized indices are more appropriate than state indices for use as the market index. The appropriate index was used to estimate systematic and nonsystematic risk and risk costs for farm planning. Estimated risks depend on the choice of market index, whereas risk costs depend on the index choice and the risk aversion are considered. More risk-averse specialized farmers are not completely compensated for risk.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1992
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30732

Weather Risk and the Viability of Weather Insurance In Western China
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Turvey,   Calum G.; Kong,   Rong; Belltawn,   Burgen.
This paper presents preliminary results on the possible demand for weather insurance in China. Results from 1,564 farm households from Western and Central China between October 2007 and October 2008 suggest that the greater risk for farmers is drought followed by excessive rain. Heat is less critical as a risk but more significant than cool weather. Results suggest a strong interest in precipitation insurance with 50% and 44% of respondents indicating strong interest in the product. Supplementary results indicate that interest is equal between planting, cultivating, and harvesting. Furthermore results suggest that farmers are willing to adopt new ideas, and where possible already take action to self insure through diversification and other means, The...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Weather insurance; Rainfall insurance; China; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; International Development; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49362

ACRE: Probabilistic Approach to Evaluate Farm Payout and Public Liability
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Walters,   Cory G.; Halich,   Greg.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103935

OPTIMAL CROP INSURANCE OPTIONS FOR ALABAMA COTTON-PEANUT PRODUCERS: A TARGET-MOTAD ANALYSIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Irimia-Vladu,   Marina; Novak,   James L.; Duffy,   Patricia A.
Target-MOTAD was used to determine the optimal crop insurance options for two representative cotton and peanut farms in southern Alabama. Results showed that, for one of the farms, no crop insurance option was risk reducing given the yield history. For the other farm, risk reduction involved shifting to higher levels of insurance coverage.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34754

MANAGING RISK BY COORDINATING INVESTMENT, MARKETING, AND PRODUCTION STRATEGIES:  COMMENT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Perry,   Gregory M.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1986
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32256

On Microeconomic Efficiency and Entrepreneurship under Bounded Rationality
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chavas,   Jean-Paul; Barham,   Bradford L.
We present a dynamic model of economic behavior of an owner-operated firm under bounded rationality, and develop the implications for the assessment of economic efficiency and the understanding of entrepreneurship. Under bounded rationality, information about technology and market conditions is not perfectly known, creating the possibility for learning. Uncertainty is represented using a general state-contingent approach. Efficiency analysis is explored using a certainty equivalent measure, which is the sum of three parts: expected net income, a conditional value of information, and a risk premium (measuring the implicit cost of private risk bearing). The analysis yields critical insights about the role of learning in technical efficiency, allocative...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92142

Farmers’ Perception of Precision Technology:  The Case of Autosteer Adoption by Cotton Farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: D'Antoni,   Jeremy M.; Mishra,   Ashok K.; Powell,   Rebekah R.; Martin,   Steven W.
Precision agriculture and autosteer technology are, overall, profitable investments for farmers, as previous literature has established. However, what has not been investigated is whether or not farmers perceive these technologies as such. This research postulates that cotton farmers must see potential for higher profits as a result of adopting precision technologies in order to adopt it. Using the 2009 Southern Cotton Precision Farming Survey  and multinomial logit model, this research investigates farmers’ perception of precision agriculture and how those perceptions impact adoption of the autosteer GPS guidance system. Autosteer adoption was found to be significant and positively related to the perceived future importance of precision agriculture as...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farmers’ perception; Precision agriculture; Autosteer; Multinomial logit estimation; Technology adoption; Input cost saving.; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Labor and Human Capital; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q16.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119734

LIMITATIONS OF VALUE-AT-RISK (VAR) FOR BUDGET ANALYSIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gustafson,   Cole R.
Value-at-risk (VaR) is increasingly being applied to problems in agriculture, especially valuation of crop insurance and agricultural lending risk exposure.  VaR conveys the probability that losses exceeding a threshold will likely occur within a specified timeframe.  However, it does not provide the expected value of losses, should they happen.  When determining risk exposure for budget analysis, this latter amount is of keen interest.  Expected tail loss (ETL) methods are developed and compared with VaR.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk; Value-at-Risk; Expected Tail Loss; Crop insurance; Loan loss; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23612

INSURING HEAT RELATED RISKS IN AGRICULTURE WITH DEGREE-DAY WEATHER DERIVATIVES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Turvey,   Calum G.
This paper presents a model and framework for pricing degree-day weather derivatives when the weather variable is a non-traded asset.  The paper compares the options prices from the recommended model and compares it to a typical insurance-type model.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19896

El seguro de ingresos como instrumento de estabilizacion de las rentas de los agricultores: aplicacion al sector olivarero espanol
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bielza,   Maria; Garrido,   Alberto; Sumpsi,   Jose Maria.
RESUMEN: En este artículo se analizan un conjunto de políticas de estabilización de los ingresos de los productores olivareros españoles, entre las que se incluyen seguros de rendimientos e ingresos. En teoría y bajo ciertos supuestos, la estabilización de los ingresos con un seguro de ingresos se puede lograr a un coste inferior al uso combinado de seguros de rendimientos y un seguro de precios. Tras revisar algunas experiencias con seguros de ingresos, se desarrolla una aplicación para comparar, desde la doble perspectiva de eficacia en el gasto público y de reducción de riesgos, distintas políticas de intervención en el sector olivarero, incluyendo las de los pagos actuales, ayuda al árbol, seguro de rendimientos actual y un seguro de ingresos. Los...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural insurance; Revenue insurance; Agricultural policy; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Q18; Q10.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28753

Risk management, vulnerability, and risk perception of organic farmers in Spain
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Medina,   Felipe; Iglesias,   Ana; Mateos,   Carlos.
This study analyses the specific risks that organic farmers must manage. Due to the special features of management of their productive system, and due to the specific characteristics of their cultivations, they must face different risks than conventional farmers. Even if the Spanish farmers rely on the insurance system to manage their risks, today organic farmers do not have specific insurance products to manage them.    The methodology and results presented in this study include the following: First, the primary information is compiled after the elaboration of more than 500 questionnaires to organic farmers of diverse Spanish regions. Second, the risk analysis is carried out by evaluating statistical, probabilistic, and stochastic properties of the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk management; Organic farming; Vulnerability; Risk perception; Stochastic simulation and  agricultural insurance.; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9274

ERMITTLUNG DER WIRTSCHAFTLICHKEIT DES ENERGIEHOLZANBAUS IN KURZUMTRIEBSPLANTAGEN – RISIKOANALYSE MIT HILFE DER MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Krober,   Mathias; Hank,   Klaus; Heinrich,   Jurgen; Wagner,   Peter.
In jüngerer Zeit hat sich die Rolle der Landwirtschaft deutlich gewandelt. Neben der Erzeugung von hochwertigen Nahrungsmitteln stellt für einen Großteil der Branche der Anbau von Energiepflanzen zur Rohstoffgewinnung ein weiteres wichtiges Standbein in der landwirtschaftlichen Produktion dar. Ein Beispiel ist unter anderem die Erzeugung von Holzbiomasse auf landwirtschaftlichen Flächen in Form des Anbaus von schnellwachsenden Baumarten. Eine anhand von Literaturdaten durchgeführte Risikoanalyse der Wirtschaftlichkeit des Anbaus von schnellwachsenden Baumarten in Kurzumtriebsplantagen mittels Monte-Carlo-Simulation zeigt, dass dieser momentan für sich betrachtet zwar in der Mehrzahl der Fälle wirtschaftlich ist, verglichen mit um die Anbaufläche...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risikoanalyse; Monte-Carlo-Simulation; Wirtschaftlichkeit; Kurzumtriebsplantage; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52658

RISK ANALYSIS UNDER CORRELATED, NON-NORMAL PRICE AND YIELD PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Sosa,   Romeo.
Recently developed techniques are combined for modeling mutually correlated crop yields and prices that exhibit heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation, respectively, and follow non-normal probability density functions (pdf's). The importance rigorously modeling these pdf's for financial risk analysis is illustrated through a case study of tropical agroforestry systems for coffee production.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21888

Measurement and Comparison of Risk Reduction by Means of Farm Yield, Area Yield, and Weather Index Crop Insurance Schemes - The Case of Kazakhstani Wheat Farms
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bokusheva,   Raushan; Breustedt,   Gunnar; Heidelbach,   Olaf.
We analyse area yield insurance contracts and weather index insurance contracts in terms of risk reduction for wheat farms in Kazakhstan over the period 1980-2002. We combine the common mean-variance approach with a stochastic dominance approach to ensure the consistency of the empirical results with expected utility theory. Results indicate (1) the need for combining both approaches, because for some insurance schemes, the mean-variance results of one-third of the farmers are not necessarily consistent with EU theory. (2) Bootstrapping shows that an expected positive variance reduction is not statistically significant for up to one-third of the farms. Both results indicate that previous methods probably overestimate the effectiveness of crop yield and...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25523

PAVING THE WAY FOR NEW LIVESTOCK RISK MANAGEMENT TOOLS: DEVELOPING MARKETS AND REGULATIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Griffin,   Peter.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33184

Estimating Farm Level Multivariate Yield Distribution Using Nonparametric Methods
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zheng,   Qiujie; Wang,   H. Holly; Shi,   Qinghua.
Modeling crop yield distributions has been an important topic in agricultural production and risk analysis, and nonparametric methods have gained attention for their flexibility in describing the shapes of yield density functions. In this article, we apply a nonparametric method to model joint yield distributions based on farm-level data for multiple crops, and also provide a way of simulation for univariate and bivariate distributions. The results show that the nonparametric models, both univariate and bivariate, are estimated quite well compared to the original samples, and the simulated empirical distributions also preserve the attributes of the original samples at a reasonable level. This article provides a feasible way of using multivariate...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Yield distribution; Multi-variate nonparametric; China; Farm-level; Risks; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6509

A Crop Yield Expectation Stochastic Process with Beta Distribution as Limit
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hennessy,   David A.
The modeling of price risk in the theory and practice of commodity risk management has been developed far beyond that of crop yield risk. This is in large part due to the use of plausible stochastic price processes. We use the Pólya urn to identify and develop a model of the crop yield expectation stochastic process over a growing season. The process allows a role for agronomic events, such as growing degree days. The model is internally consistent in adhering to the martingale property. The limiting distribution is the beta, commonly used in yield modeling. By applying binomial tree analysis, we show how to use the framework to study hedging decisions and crop valuation.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Growing degree days; Martingale; Pólya urn; Stochastic process.; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54829

Policy for implementation of Index Based Weather Insurance revisited: the case of Nicaragua
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Banerjee,   Chirantan; Berg,   Ernst.
International development organisations, through partnerships with local insurance companies, have been promoting weather index based insurance (WIBI) in developing countries. Due to lower operational costs, they expect shorter pay-off period, often overlooking high initial design costs. Experiences however show high post-pilot mortality of these programmes. Literatures report lack of insurance participation. We propose lack of push from insurance providers as an additional factor. To verify, cash flows of a Nicaraguan groundnut based WIBI and a comparable but hypothetical named peril insurance are simulated against 80 scenarios. Additionally, a test of stochastic dominance of their estimated Net Present Values show that WIBI take comparatively longer to...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Index based rainfall insurance; Weather derivative; Operational cost; Nicaragua; International Development; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122448

Reinsuring Group Revenue Insurance with Exchange-Provided Revenue Contracts
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Babcock,   Bruce A.; Hayes,   Dermot J.; Griffin,   Steven C.
Building on recent work by Mirand and Glauber (1997), this report shows that it is feasible to use exchange-based contracts as a substitute for the Standard Reinsurance Agreement (SRA). The contract we analyze here is a Group Revenue Contract, which would allow producers to guarantee against reductions in county-level revenues. The insurance company would then purchase put options on an exchange-based revenue contract to protect against statewide revenue shortfalls. The analysis suggests that this reinsurance tool would eliminate most though not all of the systemic risk associated with this product. The insurance company would have to purchase supplemental reinsurance to complement the exchange-based product, but the level of reinsurance needed would not...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Exchange-based revenue; Agricultural insurance; Reinsurance; Risk management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18408

Climate change impacts on crop risks and agricultural production in Finland
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lehtonen,   Heikki; Kujala,   Sanna.
Climate Change is expected to improve crop production conditions significantly in northern Europe. In some studies a significant increase in agricultural production is expected in northern Europe while drought is becoming gradually more severe in Southern Europe and France due to climate change. Our analysis provides one of the first steps in evaluating the possible scale of changes in agricultural production and use of farm land in Finland, so far one of the least favoured agricultural areas in Europe.   Drought in early summer and low temperature sum during growing period are currently the main growth limiting factors in Finland. Even though the early part of the growing period is likely to be dry also in the future, both mean and variance of crop yields...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Agriculture; Risk aversion; Mean-variance analysis; Sector models; Optimization; Crop production; Finland; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9259

USING THE SPATIAL STATISTICS APPROACH TO ANALYZE YIELD RISK POOLING IN THE US
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wang,   H. Holly; Zhang,   Hao.
Risk theory tells us if an insurer can effectively pool a large number of individuals to reduce the total risk, he then can provide the insurance by charging a premium close to the actuarially fair rate. There is, however, a common belief that the risk can be effectively pooled only when the random loss is independent, so that crop insurance markets cannot survive without government subsidy because crop yields are not independent among growers. In this paper, we take a a spatial statistics approach to examine the effectiveness of risk pooling for crop insurance under correlation. We develop a method for evaluating the effectiveness of risk pooling under correlation and apply the method to three major crops in the US: wheat, soybeans and corn. The empirical...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19633

Washington Biofuel Feedstock Supply under Price Uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zheng,   Qiujie; Shumway,   C. Richard.
Biofuels, as alternative transportation fuels, are now being used globally. Taking advantage of in-state feedstock supply is an efficient way to stimulate in-state biofuel industries and the local economy. This paper uses the mean-variance model of utility maximization to estimate supply equations for major biofuel feedstock crops in Washington. We consider price risk, examine the comparative statics results of the model, and use the results to draw important decision-making implications for Washington farmers who are considering production of biofuel feedstocks. Of three potential feedstock crops, only one shows immediate promise in Washington.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Biofuel feedstock; Price uncertainty; Supply; Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42304

A TWO-STAGE MODEL OF THE DEMAND FOR SPECIALTY CROP INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Knox,   Lyle; Richards,   Timothy J.
Legislators are considering raising catastrophic (CAT 50% coverage) crop insurance premiums.  However, estimates of a two-stage coverage-choice and participation model using county-level data from California grape growers show that the demand for CAT insurance is price-elastic, therefore, premium increases will worsen the financial performance of the grape-insurance program.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Discrete / continuous choice; Grapes; Multinomial logit; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21681

ON CHOOSING A BASE COVERAGE LEVEL FOR MULTIPLE PERIL CROP INSURANCE CONTRACTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ker,   Alan P.; Coble,   Keith H.
For multiple peril crop insurance, the U.S. Department of Agriculture'’s Risk Management Agency estimates the premium rate for a base coverage level and then uses multiplicative adjustment factors to recover rates at other coverage levels. Given this methodology, accurate estimation of the base coverage level from 65% to 50%. The purpose of this analysis was to provide some insight into whether such a change should or should not be carried out. Not surprisingly, our findings indicate that the higher coverage level should be maintained as the base.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31189

Derivatives at Agricultural Banks
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shen,   Xuan; Hartarska,   Valentina M.
Using data between 1995 and 2010, we find that agricultural banks are benefiting from the derivatives activities by reducing total risk without hurting their profit. In nonagricultural banks, both profitability and total risk are adversely affected, possibly due to speculative derivatives positions.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Banks; Financial Derivatives; Profitability; Risk Management; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119789

RISK ANALYSIS OF ADOPTING ZERO RUNOFF SUBIRRIGATION SYSTEMS IN GREENHOUSE OPERATIONS: A MONTE CARLO SIMULATION APPROACH
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Uva,   Wen-fei L.; Weiler,   Thomas C.; Milligan,   Robert A.; Albright,   Louis D.; Haith,   Douglas A.
Zero runoff subirrigation (ZRS) technology can effectively manage fertilizer input while improving greenhouse production efficiency. However, high capital investment costs and inadequate technical information to growers are impediments for adoption. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to compare the profitability and risks of alternative ZRS system investments for greenhouse operations in the northeastern and north central United States. Results showed that the Dutch movable tray system and the flood floor system were most profitable and least risky for small potted plant and bedding crop flat production, respectively. The trough bench system was least favorable because its profitability was low and highly volatile.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31297

The adoption of innovative cropping systems under price and production risks: a dynamic model of crop rotation choice
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ridier,   Aude; Chaib,   Karim; Roussy,   Caroline.
In the paper we investigate the role played by both production and market risks on farmer’s decision to adopt long rotations (over 2 years), considered as innovative cropping systems. We build a multiperiod dynamic farm model (run under GAMS) that arbitrates each year between traditional and innovative rotations. With discrete stochastic programming, the production risk is accounted as an intra-year risk; yearly farming operations are declined according to a decision tree where probabilities are assigned. Subjective yield and cost distributions linked to this decision tree are elicited among a sample of 13 farmers that are experiencing this innovation in South-western France. The price risk is randomly distributed with a given market trend. The crop...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Innovative cropping systems; Dynamic model; Crop rotation decision; Risk; Subjective probabilities; Risk and Uncertainty; C61; D0; Q12; Q55.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122440

Livelihood Disruption and Venture Creation: Entrepreneurship as Technology Adoption, A Case of Tobacco Farmer in Kentucky
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Khantachavana,   Sivalai V.; Just,   David R.; Pushkarskaya,   Helen N.
Entrepreneurship means making discrete changes in livelihood activities that involve substantial risks to income. While the rewards may be substantial, transactions costs may make decisions irreversible. This paper draws a comparison between entrepreneurship and technology adoption. Adopting a new production technology also involves substantial risks. The economics of technology adoption is a well developed literature with many accepted and testable models. Most prominent are the theories of learning by using and learning by doing. We review the technology adoption literature, drawing out lessons for entrepreneurship research. We then apply an entrepreneurship as technology adoption model to a unique dataset collected during the tobacco buyout. The...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Entrepreneurship; Technology adoption; Tobacco buyout; Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61296

A Spatial Approach to Addressing Weather Derivative Basis Risk: A Drought Insurance Example
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Paulson,   Nicholas D.; Hart,   Chad E.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21249

A model-based approach to moral hazard in food chains - What contribution do principal-agent-models make to the understanding of food risks induced by opportunistic behaviour?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hirschauer,   Norbert.
Food risks may be caused by moral hazard, i.e. by opportunistic behaviour of upstream sellers who exploit the fact that many food product qualities remain uncertain to downstream buyers in the course of conventional market transactions (credence qualities). Due to this lack of market transparency buyers run the risk to pay premium prices for inferior products (quality risks); furthermore, they run the risk to use or consume substances which are harmful (health risks). Therefore, they will want to design optimal contracts and controls preventing opportunistic behaviour. Usually, however, buyers cannot contract contingent on the actions of upstream sellers because they cannot observe them directly (information asymmetry). Motivated by the obviously...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Food risk; Information asymmetry; Moral hazard; Opportunistic behaviour; Prevention; Principal-agent-model; Traceability; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97448

Price Risk Management: Are Futures Markets Adequate?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bullock,   J. Bruce.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1985
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59810

Volatility Spillovers in Agricultural Commodity Markets: An Application Involving Implied Volatilities from Options Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zhao,   Jieyuan; Goodwin,   Barry K.
Replaced with revised version of paper 07/22/11 and 2/14/2012.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Volatility Spillovers; Implied Volatility; Structural Change; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103636

A Semiparametric Test for Heterogeneous Risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Stohs,   Stephen M.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21309

THE IMPACT OF RISK AVERSION, TIME PREFERENCE, AND INTERTEMPORAL SUBSTITUTABILITY  ON FARMERS' RISK MANAGEMENT BEHAVIOR
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Du,   Wen; Wang,   H. Holly.
This paper applies the generalized expected utility (GEU) approach developed by Epstein and Zin (1989, 1991) to dynamic agricultural risk analysis. We explore the impacts of alternative preference parameters of farmers including of risk aversion, time preference, and intertemporal substitutability on their optimal risk management portfolio selection. Furthermore, we extend the GEU model by introducing a welfare measure, the equivalence variation, and investigate the impacts of U.S. government programs and market institutions on farmers'  risk management decisions. We find farmers’ optimal hedge ratio is sensitive to changes in the preferences and the effects of these preferences changes are intertwined. The policy impact analysis shows government payment...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36235

WEATHER DERIVATIVES: MANAGING RISK WITH MARKET-BASED INSTRUMENTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Richards,   Timothy J.; Manfredo,   Mark R.; Sanders,   Dwight R.
Accurate pricing of weather derivatives is critically dependent upon correct specification of the underlying weather process. We test among six likely alternative processes using maximum likelihood methods and data from the Fresno, CA weather station. Using these data, we find that the best process is a mean-reverting geometric Brownian process with discrete jumps and ARCH errors. We describe a pricing model for weather derivatives based on such a process.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19074

Sustainability Strategies in U.S. Agribusiness: Understanding Key Drivers, Objectives, and Actions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rankin,   Amber; Gray,   Allan W.; Boehlje,   Michael; Alexander,   Corinne E.
www.ifama.org
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Sustainability; Triple bottom line; Strategy; Stakeholders; Supply chain; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117601

COMPARING THE REVENUE RISK REDUCTION OF A RAINFALL INDEX INSURANCE CONTRACT USING VALUE-AT RISK AND DISPERSION MEASURES OF RISK
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bamba,   Ibrahim.
Replaced with revised version of paper 01/29/04.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34596

Identifying Risk Factors Affecting Weather- and Disease-Related Losses in the U.S. Farm-Raised Catfish Industry
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hanson,   Terrill R.; Shaik,   Saleem; Coble,   Keith H.; Edwards,   Seanicaa; Miller,   J. Corey.
Two double-limit tobit models are used to identify significant risk factors that most affect farm-raised catfish losses from weather-related events and from disease outbreaks. Results of the weather loss model indicate that the variables for operator education level, number of ponds, pond water depth, production management strategy, past experience with severe losses from low oxygen levels from off-farm power outages, past experience with severe losses from diseases, and being in the South are statistically significant. Results of the disease loss model indicate that the variables for operator experience and pond water depth are significant. De-velopment of models explaining weather and disease losses through observable variables pro-vides a better...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Aquaculture; Tobit; Risk management; Columnaris; Enteric septicemia of catfish; Weather losses; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44736

Resistance to Change
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dow,   James; Perotti,   Enrico.
Established firms often fail to maintain leadership following disruptive market shifts. We argue that such firms are more prone to internal resistance. A radical adjustment of assets affects the distribution of employee rents, creating winners and losers. Losers resist large changes when strong customer goodwill cushions the consequences. Partial adaptation may lead winners to depart to form new  firms with no goodwill, but no internal resistance.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Resistance to Change; Leadership; Adaptation; Risk and Uncertainty; D21.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60752

FEASIBILITY OF INCOME INSURANCE IN EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Meuwissen,   Miranda P.M.; Huirne,   Ruud B.M.
Liberalization of agricultural markets leads to new risks for European farmers. This paper studies the feasibility of income insurance schemes for European crop and livestock farmers. Different insurance topics, such as governmental reinsurance and the use of mutual insurance funds, are described and analyzed, using individual farm level data of different areas and commodities. In this paper it is argued that 'income' insurance in European agriculture should be restricted to yield-only insurance schemes that are organized per commodity and per region and in which governments play the role of 'lender of last resort.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Income variability; Income insurance; Crop and livestock farming; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20947

Risk and Equity in Agricultural Cooperatives
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Parliament,   Claudia; Lerman,   Zvi.
This research examines the effect of risk on the proportion of equity held by agricultural cooperatives. The measured components of risk are business risk and the financial risk that is dependent on the proportion of debt in the cooperative's capital structure. The empirical results indicate the proportion of equity is inversely related to financial risk and positively related to business risk. These risk effects are estimated to differ based on the commodity handled by the cooperative. No Significant relation between the proportion of equity and whether or not the cooperative operates on a pooling basis is estimated.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1993
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46388

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF RISK PREFERENCE ELICITATION PROCEDURES USING MAIL SURVEY RESULTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fausti,   Scott W.; Gillespie,   Jeffrey M.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36469

RISK MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS IN EXTENSION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anderson,   Kim B.; Mapp,   Harry P., Jr.
The evolution of Cooperative Extension Service techniques used to teach decision making in a risk environment is examined. Interviews of selected Cooperative Extension economists indicate that research methods used to evaluate and describe risk are more complex than those used in extension programs. Research is an essential component of the development and implementation of extension programs. Because most producers have some understanding of risk, and many use financial strategies to manage risk, and important product of risk research has been educating extension economists and researchers. When developing risk management programs, it is stressed that “"simplicity is powerful."”
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 1996
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31000

Specification of Environmental Emission Trading Options in a Spatial Multi-Agent Simulation Model of Pastoral Farming
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dake,   Chris K.G.; Manderson,   Andrew K.; MacKay,   Alec D.
A risk efficient frontier for a pastoral farm indicates the optimal enterprise mix that allows the farmer to generate the highest income for a given level of financial risk. It is calculated by matching the available range of enterprises (sheep, beef cattle, deer, dairy, exotic forest and indigenous forest) to the mix of land classes available on the farm. The quantity of environmental emissions produced from the farm varies with the optimal enterprise mix along the risk efficient frontier, and therefore enables the farmer to assess the financial consequences of moving along the frontier to achieve a desired level of environmental emissions. This study uses databases of land cover, land classes and farm boundaries to develop a method for estimating the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Whole farm risk modelling; Environmental emissions trading; Multi-agent simulation; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31968

PRODUCTION RISK AND INPUT USE: PASTORAL ZONE OF EASTERN AUSTRALIA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anderson,   Jock R.; Griffiths,   William E.
Few attempts have been made to estimate production functions for the Australian grazing industries. The question of the nature of the effect of input levels on production risk has been broached even more rarely. Previous investigators had to employ models and methods of estimation which embody highly restrictive implicit assumptions about the nature of risk effects. A typical restrictive feature has been the implication that increasing input intensity leads to increasing risk. In this paper, a much less restrictive model and corresponding estimation techniques are brought to bear on individual farm data for 38 properties with 10 continuous years of production records. Perhaps not surprisingly, it is found that some inputs (especially those capital inputs...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1981
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22867

Cotton Price Policy and New Cereal Technology in the Malian Cotton Zone
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Coulibaly,   Jeanne Y.; Sanders,   John H.; Preckel,   Paul V.; Baker,   Timothy G.
During the last decade, cotton production and area have been declining as a result of depleting soil nutrients and low cotton prices in the cotton zone of Mali. This paper shows that the Malian government’s 2011 policy to increase the farm gate cotton price as a response to world cotton price increase enhances farm income but has less impact on cotton than on maize production. A complementary policy of introducing new sorghum technologies would have an equal impact on farmers’ incomes in the cotton zone of Mali.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Cotton prices; Improved sorghum technology; Discrete stochastic programming; Mali; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; International Development; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103755

Second-Order Ambiguity in Very Low Probability Risks: Food Safety Valuation
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kivi,   Paul A.; Shogren,   Jason F.
Food consumption involves inherently risky decisions with uncertain probabilities. This study examines how second-order ambiguity, or uncertainty over probabilities, affects food safety decisions. We conduct a food safety survey wherein subjects face both unambiguous and ambiguous situations, each with the same expected value. Respondents show a preference for unambiguous situations and state a willingness to pay to avoid ambiguity
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Ambiguity; Ambiguity avoidance; Expected utility theory; Food safety; Low probability events; Risk; Second-order probabilities; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97857

Managing Price Risk in Volatile Grain Markets, Issues and Potential Solutions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: McKenzie,   Andrew M.; Kunda,   Eugene L.
During 2008 extreme price volatility in grain markets led to country elevators incurring unprecedentedly large margin calls on their futures hedges. As a result elevators’ traditional liquidity sources and lines of credit were stretched to breaking point. This article explores the potential liquidity benefits of making available an Over-the-Counter Margin Credit Swap contract to grain hedgers. The swap would enable hedgers to draw upon sources of capital outside the farm credit system to provide liquidity needed to make margin calls. Simulation results clearly show that a Margin Credit Swap contract would provide significant liquidity benefits to hedgers during volatile periods.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Elevator; Hedging; Margin; Swap; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; G32; G13; Q14.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53081

The Evolution and Expansion of Risk Management Education Programs in the United States
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jose,   H. Douglas; Tilmon,   H. Don.
A rapidly changing business environment has dictated a need for farmers to  improve their risk management skills. The 1996 Federal Agricultural  Improvement and Reform Act (FAIR) also created a new environment for  American farmers by eliminating planting restrictions and deficiency payments.  Congress recognized the changing environment by mandating the Secretary of  Agriculture to initiate a risk management education program. A memorandum of  understanding specified the responsibilities of the federal agencies involved in  risk management services and education. A work group representing all public  and private organizations concerned with risk management services and  strategies was convened. The work group established a set of objectives, the five...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6936

Risk Mitigating Strategies in the Food Supply Chain
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Agiwal,   Swati; Mohtadi,   Hamid.
Food safety events in the recent past have generated significant media attention and resulted in increased concerns over the food on the plate. A recent study (Degeneffe et al., 2007) on consumer perceptions of bio-terrorism and food safety risks shows increasing concern over food safety and corresponding decreasing confidence in security of the U.S. food supply. While there are some mandated safety and security practices for the firms in the food supply chain the economic incentives for the firms to actively address food safety throughout the supply chain are less clear. Security practices often require significant investments in both within the firm and across the supply chain but do not show tangible returns. Also, higher investments in securing the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty; L100; L800.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6248

RISK MANAGEMENT FOR LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS: HEDGING AND CONTRACT PRODUCTION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lawrence,   John D.; Kaylen,   Michael S.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1990
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/13496

Risk Preferences and Demand for Insurance in Peru: A Field Experiment
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Galarza,   Francisco B.; Carter,   Michael R.
This paper reports the results of behavioral economic experiments conducted in Peru to examine the relationship amongst risk preferences, loan take-up, and insurance purchase decisions. This area-based yield insurance can help reduce people's vulnerability to large scale covariate shocks, and can also lower the loan default probability under extreme negative covariate shocks. In a context of collateralized formal credit markets, we provide suggestive evidence that insurance may help reduce the fear of losing collateral that prevents potential borrowers from taking loans. Framing these experiments to recreate a real life situation, we started with a Baseline Game where subjects had to choose between a fallback production project and an uninsured loan. We...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Area-yield insurance; Credit; Covariate risk; Idiosyncratic risk; Risk aversion; Experimental economics; Peru; Risk and Uncertainty; C93; D81.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61871

Lessons Learned from Developing and Offering a Web-Based Course on Futures and Options
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Makus,   Larry D.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92881

Dynamic Price Relationships in the Grain and Cattle Markets, Pre and Post-Ethanol Mandate
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tejeda,   Hernan A.; Goodwin,   Barry K.
This paper determines the dynamic interaction between prices of corn, soybean, grain sorghum (milo), wheat, feeder cattle and live (fed) cattle by taking into account the surge in corn consumption stemming from the boost of mandated ethanol production. Corn is a major carbohydrate-feed component of livestock, with grain sorghum and wheat serving as close substitutes. Moreover, soybean is an important protein-feed component. Being non-stationary data, a vector autoregressive (VAR) model (Sims, 1980) that includes an ‘error correction’ term is applied to the series; likewise known as a vector error correction (VEC) model (Engel and Granger, 1987 and Johansen, 1989). Two separate periods are estimated. The first considers prices prior to recent ethanol...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Corn Prices; Ethanol; Cattle Feed Price Dynamics; Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103825

Modelling risk in farm planning
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Visagie,   S.E.; Ghebretsadik,   A.H.
In this article a mathematical model is presented to assist management decisions on an integrated crop and livestock farm. Risk is incorporated into the model as the negative deviation of the actual gross income from the expected value of an activity's gross income. The model includes crop production (permitting and optimising a crop rotation system), dairy production and wool sheep production. Relevant data from a farm in the Swartland region of the Western Cape were used to test and validate the model. The results show that the adoption of crop rotation is superior in terms of gross margin to that generated from a mono-crop strategy. Empirical results also indicate that the complex interrelationships involved in a mixed crop-livestock farm operation play...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31702

Alternatives to Risk Management Policies: View From the Country
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bernard,   Roger.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8049

Risk Perception and Altruistic Averting Behavior: Removing Arsenic in Drinking Water
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cai,   Yongxia; Shaw,   W. Douglass; Wu,   Ximing.
Self protection and altruism are crucial behavioral factors in determining the effectiveness of public policies aimed to improve human health from environmental hazards. This paper examined people’s arsenic mortality risk perception in the drinking water for themselves and their children using the Bayesian learning framework. A two-stage structural model within the random utility framework was developed to model the household’s risk averting behavior with respect to arsenic-related mortality risk. The empirical results indicate that parents engage in a form of mixed altruism. Parents are willing to spend more to make a trade-off between their risk and their children’s risk.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6149

Efficiency of Weather Derivatives as Primary Crop Insurance Instruments
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vedenov,   Dmitry V.; Barnett,   Barry J.
This study analyzes efficiency of weather derivatives as primary insurance instruments for six crop reporting districts that are among the largest producers of corn, cotton, and soybeans in the United States. Specific weather derivatives are constructed for each crop/district combination based on analysis of several econometric models. The performance of the designed weather derivatives is then analyzed both in- and out-of-sample. The primary findings suggest that the optimal structure of weather derivatives varies widely across crops and regions, as does the risk-reducing performance of the optimally designed weather derivatives. Further, optimal weather derivatives required rather complicated combinations of weather variables to achieve reasonable fits...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural risk management; Crop insurance; Index insurance; Weather derivatives; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30916

MAGNITUDE ESTIMATION: AN APPLICATION TO FARMERS' RISK-INCOME PREFERENCES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Patrick,   George F.; Blake,   Brian F.; Whittaker,   Suzanne H.
Magnitude estimation, a technique developed by psychology for obtaining ratio scaled values, was used to derive risk-income preferences of ninety-one central Indiana farmers.  Both variability-income and bankruptcy-income measures were developed and related to farmers' socio-economic attributes.  Wealth and education had limited effects compared with off-farm employment, percent debt and expected levels of income, percent debt and net worth growth.  Magnitude estimation provided reliable estimates of preferences.  Farmers gave greater importance to the bankruptcy-income measure of risk-income preferences, but only a small portion of the variation of either measure could be explained.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1981
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32583

Importance of irrigated agriculture to the Ethiopian economy: Capturing the direct net benefits of irrigation
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hagos,   Fitsum; Makombe,   Godswill; Namara,   Regassa E.; Awulachew,   Seleshi Bekele.
Irrigation development has been identified as a means to stimulate economic growth and rural development in Ethiopia. However, little attempt has been made to quantify the contribution of irrigation to national income. Using data from selected irrigation schemes, representing small, medium and large-scale schemes of modern or traditional typologies; the present coverage and planned growth of irrigation, actual and expected contributions of irrigation to the national economy were quantified following the approach of adjusted gross margin analysis. Our results show that irrigation yields 219.7% higher income compared to the rainfed system while its current and future contribution to agricultural GDP is estimated to be about 5.7 and 12% although irrigation...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Irrigated farming; National income; Economic growth; Crops; Prices; Sensitivity analysis; Crop management; Irrigation schemes; Ethiopia; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Health Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61100

OFFSHORE OUTSOURCING (OO) IN INDIA’S ITES: HOW EFFECTIVE IT IS IN DATA PROTECTION?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bharti,   Nalin.
In the last few years India has become one of the leading offshore outsourcing (OO) centers in the area of ITES. This paper deals with the main problem of data protection in offshore outsourcing centers with special emphasis on the steps by the government of India to enable India’s great business.
Tipo: Book
Palavras-chave: Information technology; Data protection low; Market changes of information; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43323

HEDGING CROP RISK WITH YIELD INSURANCE FUTURES AND OPTIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mahul,   Olivier; Vermersch,   Dominique.
This paper analyses the optimal hedging decisions for risk-averse producers facing crop risk, assuming crop yield insurance futures and options can be used. The first-best optimal hedge requires a futures position or an option position proportionate to the individual beta depending on whether the financial markets are perceived unbiased or biased. Using yield data for a sample of wheat producers in France, the producers' hedge ratios are derived. These new hedging instruments are more effective to reduce farm yield variability than the individual yield contracts, except if the individual yield guarantee is at least equal to the individual average yield.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Hedging position; Incomplete markets; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21672

FARMERS’ RISK PERCEPTION AND RISK MANAGEMENT PRACTICES IN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Palinkas,   Peter; Szekely,   Csaba.
The local, regional and global economic and natural phenomena of previous decades collectively emphasize the growing importance of risk factors affecting agricultural production both directly and indirectly. Agricultural producers should not restrict their risk management strategies to offset and relieve the problems caused by climatic and natural phenomena, but the knowledge of up-to-date professional, market, and agricultural policy developments is more and more an indispensable condition of successful farming. Besides what mentioned above, it is at least equally important to answer the question of how farmers perceive the importance of risk factors surrounding their activities, as it strongly influences the shaping of their risk management strategies....
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk perception; Risk management; International comparison; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/47554

Does trust influence consumer behaviour?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dierks,   Leef H.
Against the background of diverse food scandals this article investigates the role of trust as a determinant of consumer behaviour in Germany. As empirical analyses indicate, the impact of trust on consumer behaviour in a quotidian and presumably safe setting is to be neglected. In the environment of a food scandal, however, trust proves to be a crucial element with regard to a more in-depth understanding of consumer behaviour under uncertainty. Moreover, it is analysed whether different values of trust allow for deriving coherent population segments and whether these can likewise be identified on the basis of consumers’ socio-economic features.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Consumer behaviour; Uncertainty; Food safety; Trust; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty; Consumer/Household Economics; Farm Management.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96727

Weather derivatives as an instrument to hedge against the risk of high energy cost in greenhouse production
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Berg,   Ernst; Schmitz,   Bernhard; Starp,   Michael.
In many areas agriculture is exposed to weather-related risks. Weather derivatives that get more and more in the focus of interest can reduce these risks. In this study we develop a temperature based weather derivative and analyse how it can reduce the weather-related energy cost risk in greenhouse production. We base this study on a temperature index whose stochastic characteristics are analysed. Finally we simulate the heating energy demand of a horticultural firm.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21378

How do Different Countries use PDO/GI Standards: A Case Study Comparing Wisconsin Cheddar to Parmesan-Reggiano
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: House,   Lisa; Patel,   Payal; Thomas,   Spreen.
Protected Geographic Indicators (PGI) and Product Differentiation of Origination (PDO) are products that are linked to certain regions or countries that define them based on where they are produced, prepared and/or packaged before they are sold. However, the exact interpretation of PGI/PDOs is not synonymous around the world, leading to disputes over trade barriers between nations. The goal of this paper is to discuss the quality and safety control issues that go into the production of PGI/PDOs as well as trade regulations that are currently being discussed at the World Trade Organization’s Doha multilateral trade agreements meetings. A comparison of how countries mark PGI/PDO products is made by comparing two cheese industries: Wisconsin Cheddar from the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59176

Factors Contributing to Recent Increases in Food Commodity Prices (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Trostle,   Ronald.
Presentation to USDA Economists Group, Washington, DC, 10 June 2008
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Food prices; Commodities; Biofuels; Crop production; Food demand; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Security and Poverty; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43902

Macroeconomic and welfare consequences of high energy prices
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Twimukye,   Evarist P.; Matovu,   John Mary.
The current wave of volatile international oil process coupled with the low hydro-energy generation continues to exert negative impacts on the Ugandan economy. This paper analyzes the extent to which changes in energy prices affect the economy and examines policy options that can be undertaken to circumvent the negative effects. The impact of higher oil prices takes a large toll on all sectors including agriculture, manufacturing and services. With the existing loses in productivity of generating hydro electricity, this has exacerbated the energy crisis. The combined output loss for the manufacturing sector due to increase in fuel prices and a shortage of electricity is estimated at 2 percent on annual basis. While the government has title control on the...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Oil; Energy; Hydro-electricity; Public investment; Twimukye; Matovu; EPRC; Industrial Organization; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Political Economy; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Public Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54803

Disaster Recovery Planning as part of Business Continuity Management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pinta,   Jan.
Nowadays, a well functioning ICT infrastructure belongs to the most critical factors of companies across all branches of business. An importance of ensuring the continued operation of information systems, or the rapid recovery of the systems in the case of emergency, has increased. These needs require creating business continuity management plan and disaster recovery planning. This paper describes the creation of emergency and recovery plans and setting recovery objectives significantly affecting their efficiency.
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Business Continuity Plan (BCP); Disaster Recovery (DR; Recovery Measures; Risk and Uncertainty; GA; IN.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120243

UNDERSTANDING AND MANAGING CONSUMER RISK BEHAVIOR
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pennings,   Joost M.E.; van Ittersum,   Koert.
We present a conceptual framework for policy makers to analyze consumer behavior in times of crisis. The framework provides policy makers and the agricultural industry with a tool to structure the discussion on how to communicate crises to consumers and serves as a basis for concrete marketing policy. The merits of this conceptualization are illustrated in a field study that examines the reactions of German, Dutch, and American consumers to the BSE (Mad Cow Disease) crisis.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20163

A MEASURE OF THE VALUE OF INFORMATION FOR THE COMPETITIVE FIRM UNDER PRICE UNCERTAINTY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Antonovitz,   Frances; Roe,   Terry L.
This paper addresses the problem of measuring the value of information to an agent in an environment where the agent is risk averse and choices are base on the utility of income and personal beliefs about the likelihood of uncertain outcomes
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1982
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/13702

AN ECONOMIC RESPONSE MODEL OF HERBICIDE APPLICATION FOR WEED CONTROL
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pannell,   David J.
A biologically realistic model of crop yield response to herbicide application is presented. It includes functions for weed mortality from herbicide application and yield loss due to surviving weeds. The optimal herbicide rate and two types of decision thresholds are derived theoretically and illustrated with empirical examples. Responses of the various decision criteria to changes in parameters are also examined theoretically and empirically. A multidimensional threshold for weeds based on weed density and weed-free yield is presented. The issue of farmers using other than officially recommended herbicide rates is discussed.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1990
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22352

How Leading International Dairy Companies Adjusted to Changes in World Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dobson,   William D.; Wilcox,   Andrew.
This Discussion Paper focuses on strategic adjustments made by leading international dairy firms in response to world market developments in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Firms whose strategies were analyzed include Fonterra, Nestle, selected other Western European companies (including the Kerry Group and Parmalat), Kraft Foods, Dairy Farmers of America, and Land O'Lakes. In part, the paper describes dairy industry success stories that have implications for a broader group of dairy companies. It also shows how even successful dairy firms have pursued strategies that expose the companies to significant risks. Strategic alliances entered into by the companies received emphasis in the study.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: International Dairy Companies; Business Strategies; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis; Financial Economics; Industrial Organization; International Relations/Trade; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37655

BALANCING RISK REDUCTION AND BENEFITS FROM TRADE IN SETTING STANDARDS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wilson,   John S.; Otsuki,   Tsunehiro.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16564

Acreage Decisions When Risk Preferences Vary
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Arnade,   Carlos Anthony; Cooper,   Joseph C.
This presentation summarizes an AAEA poster.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk preferences; Acreage decision; Soybeans; Corn; Wheat; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61005

FARM-LEVEL EVIDENCE ON THE RISK BALANCING HYPOTHESIS FROM ILLINOIS GRAIN FARMS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Escalante,   Cesar L.; Barry,   Peter J.
This study provides farm-level empirical support to the Risk-Balancing Hypothesis using Illinois grain farm data.  The econometric results indicate that risk-balancing farmers comprise more than half of the sample.  These farmers tend to be older, have higher leasing ratios, are less financially efficient and manage risk through crop specialization, enterprise diversification, and marketing strategies in addition to risk balancing.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20617

Protection of Intellectual Property while Outsourcing
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sen Gupta,   Rajorshi; Love,   H. Alan.
Food and Beverage companies need to share their Intellectual Property (IP) when they outsource production and/or R&amp;D to contract agents. IP sharing can facilitate misappropriation and the contractor may eventually start competing with the client. We design an incentive compatible contract that can protect company IP. A two-pronged strategy is proposed: Companies should share less know-how and give high incentive payments to deter IP misappropriation. Strategies like product differentiation may be highly useful to deter piracy.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Intellectual Property Protection; Outsourcing; Product Differentiation; R&amp;D; Agribusiness; Industrial Organization; Risk and Uncertainty; L14; L21; L23; L66; 031; 032; 034.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103856

The Recovery of Consumer Purchasing Behavior after a Food Crisis: A Case Study of the Melamine Incident in China
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Quan,   Shiwen; Zeng,   Yinchu; Yu,   Xiaohua; Liu,   Yuanyuan.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Purchase Behavior; Trust; Food Crisis; Milk; China; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q18.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61042

Social and Ethical Considerations of Nuclear Power Development
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Parkins,   John R.; Haluza-DeLay,   Randolph.
A new urgency is emerging around nuclear power development and this urgency is accentuated by the post-tsunami events at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan. This urgency extends beyond these dramatic events in Japan, however, to many other regions of the world and situations where nuclear power development is receiving renewed attention as an alternative to carbon-based energy sources. As a contribution to the growing public debate about nuclear power development, this paper offers a set of insights into the social and ethical aspects of nuclear power development by drawing from published literature in the humanities and social sciences. We offer insights into public risk perception of nuclear power at individual and national levels, the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Nuclear power; Risk perception; Social context; Megaprojects; Energy production; Applied ethics; Social values; Social movements; Complexity; Hazards; Disaster response; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q40; Z00.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103237

RISK ATTITUDE, PLANTING CONDITIONS AND THE VALUE OF SEASONAL FORECASTS TO A DRYLAND WHEAT GROWER
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Marshall,   Graham R.; Parton,   Kevin A.; Hammer,   G.L.
The value of a seasonal forecasting system based on phases of the Southern Oscillation was estimated for a representative dryland wheat grower in the vicinity of Goondiwindi. In particular the effects on this estimate of risk attitude and planting conditions were examined. A recursive stochastic programming approach was used to identify the grower's utility-maximising action set in the event of each of the climate patterns over the period 1894-1991 recurring in the imminent season. The approach was repeated with and without use of the forecasts. The choices examined were, at planting, nitrogen application rate and cultivar and, later in the season, choices of proceeding with or abandoning each wheat activity. The value of the forecasting system was...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1996
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22368

What is the Difference in Profit per Acre between Organic and Conventional Coffee?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jensen,   Jennifer; Dicks,   Michael R.
The research addresses the economic problem of deforestation.  A contributing factor to deforestation is coffee production. Coffee is an indigenous plant that is naturally occurring in the native tropical forests. However, conventional coffee is grown on cleared forest soil. In the native forest there is the potential for additional fruits (bananas, mangoes, avocados) and wood products while in the conventional coffee production system the only product is coffee.  Conventional coffee production often causes deforestation and soil erosion while the organic coffee production system does not. In addition, the price risk associated with the coffee monoculture is high and has proven disastrous to the sustainability of coffee production in past years. Thus,...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Coffee; Inputs; Outputs; Species variation; Costa Rica; Organic; Conventional; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119864

An Economic Risk Analysis of Tillage and Cropping Systems on the Arkansas Grand Prairie
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hignight,   Jeffrey A.; Watkins,   K. Bradley; Anders,   Merle M.
No-till (NT) has been shown to reduce fuel, labor, and machinery costs compared to conventional-till (CT) but very few rice producers in Arkansas practice NT.  The low adoption rate is most likely due to difficulties in management but also limited information on the profitability and risk of NT.  Most rice producers are knowledgeable on NT costs savings but consider it less profitable due to yield reductions offsetting costs savings.  This study evaluates production costs, crop yields, and economic risk of both NT and CT in five rice-based cropping systems (continuous rice, rice-soybean, rice-corn, rice-wheat, and rice-wheat-soybean-wheat).  Yields, crop prices, and key input prices are simulated to create net return distributions.  Stochastic efficiency...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Cropping systems; Rice; No-till; Certainty equivalent; Risk premium; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56354

CROP INSURANCE RATES AND THE LAWS OF PROBABILITY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Babcock,   Bruce A.; Hart,   Chad E.; Hayes,   Dermot J.
Increased crop insurance subsidies have increased the demand for insurance at coverage levels higher than the traditional level of 65 percent. Premium rates for higher levels of yield insurance under the Federal Actual Production History (APH) program equal the premium rate at the 65 percent coverage level multiplied by a rate relativity factor that varies by coverage level but not by crop or region. In this paper, we examine the consistency of these constant rate relativity factors with the laws of probability by determining the maximum 65 percent premium rate that is consistent with a well-defined yield distribution. We find that more than 50 percent of U.S. counties have premium rates for corn, soybeans, and wheat that are not consistent with the laws...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18345

Is Pay-As-You-Drive Insurance a Better Way to Reduce Gasoline than Gasoline Taxes?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Parry,   Ian W.H.
Gasoline taxes are widely perceived as the most efficient instrument for reducing gasoline consumption because they exploit all behavioral responses for reducing fuel use, including reduced driving and improved fuel economy. At present, however, higher fuel taxes are viewed as a political nonstarter. Pay-as-you-drive (PAYD) auto insurance, which involves replacing existing lump-sum premiums with premiums that vary in proportion to miles driven, should be more practical, since they do not raise driving costs for the average motorist. We show that when impacts on a broad range of motor vehicle externalities are considered, PAYD also induces significantly higher welfare gains than comparable gasoline tax increases, for fuel reductions below 9%. The reason is...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Gasoline tax; Pay-as-you-drive insurance; Mileage tax; Welfare effects; Motor vehicle externality; Risk and Uncertainty; H21; H23; R48.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10465

Agricultural Risk Aversion Revisited: A Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gomez-Limon,   Jose Antonio; Riesgo,   Laura; Arriaza Balmón,   Manuel.
In modelling farm systems it is widely accepted that risk plays a central role. Furthermore, farmers' risk aversion determines their decisions in both the short and the long run. This paper presents a methodology based on multiple criteria mathematical programming to obtain relative and absolute risk aversion coefficients. We rely on multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) to elicit a separable additive multiattribute utility function and then estimate the risk aversion coefficients and apply this methodology to an irrigated area of Northern Spain. The results show a wide variety of attitudes to risk among farmers, who mainly exhibit decreasing absolute risk aversion (DARA) and constant relative risk aversion (CRRA).
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Agriculture; Utility theory; Multiple criteria analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24827

EFFECT OF RISK PERSPECTIVE ON FERTILIZER CHOICE BY SHARECROPPERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Paudel,   Krishna P.; Lohr,   Luanne; Martin,   Neil R., Jr.
Peanut and corn are two major crops in the tri-state area of the Southeast US, an area  encompassing North Florida, Southwest Georgia, and Southeast Alabama.   Sharecroppers in this region apply higher amount of input in crop production than the average farmers. We analyzed the behavior of sharecroppers in this region with regard to their fertilizer application decisions.  Two hypotheses were formulated and tested based on sharecroppers' fertilizer application decisions: one assuming that sharecroppers are risk averse farmers and the other assuming that sharecroppers are regret minimizers. Our results show that a sharecropper uses different fertilizer treatments when minimizing risk depending on risk perspective and desired income.  Sharecroppers who apply...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Southeast U.S.; Sharecroppers; Regret minimizer; Risk averse; Peanut-Corn rotation; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23814

A HAZAI MEZŐGAZDASÁGI VÁLLALKOZÁSOK MENEDZSMENTJE EURÓPAI ÖSSZEHASONLÍTÁSBAN
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Szekely,   Csaba; Palinkas,   Peter.
Az Európai Unió versenykörnyezete a mezőgazdasági vállalkozások gazdálkodásának színvonalát tekintve is megközelítően azonos feltételeket kíván meg az egyes országok gazdasági szereplőitől. Ebben a tekintetben a magyar gazdaságok – rövid, másfél évtizedes múltjuk következtében – sok szempontból hátrányosabb helyzetűek a régebbi tagállamok gazdaságaihoz, és részben az egy időben csatlakozott országok mezőgazdasági vállalkozásaihoz képest, annak ellenére, hogy a „nagyüzemi” gazdálkodás időszakában még sok helyen mintának tekintették mezőgazdasági üzemeink gazdálkodási, szervezési gyakorlatát. A tervezés, szervezés, gazdálkodás magas színvonala a múltban gyökerezett és folyamatosan megújult: több évszázadra vezethető vissza a gazdálkodással foglalkozó...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Menedzsment; Gazdálkodás; Finanszírozás; Kooperáció; EU összehasonlításmanagement; Economics; Finance; Cooperation; EU comparisons; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57717

GROWTH UNCERTAINTY AND RISKSHARING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Athanasoulis,   Stefano; van Wincoop,   Eric.
How large are potential benefits from global risksharing?  In order to answer this question we propose a new methodology that is closely connected with the empirical growth literature.  We obtain estimates of residual risk (growth uncertainty) at various horizons from regressions of country-specific growth in deviation from world growth on a wide set of variables in the information set.  Since this residual risk can be entirely hedged through risksharing, we use it to obtain a measure of the potential welfare gain for a representative country.  We find that nations can reap very large benefits from engaging in such risksharing arrangements.  Using post-war data, the gain for a 35-year horizon, corresponding to an equivalent permanent increase in...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: International Development; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1997
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18194

Risk Analysis of Organic Cropping Systems in Minnesota
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mahoney,   Paul; Olson,   Kent D.; Porter,   Paul M.; Huggins,   David R.; Perillo,   Catherine A.; Crookston,   R. Kent.
When all strategies received conventional market prices, 4-year cropping sequences had greater net returns than 2-year sequences, and the organic input, 4-year strategy had the highest net return. Adding 50% of the estimated organic premium, the 4-year, organic strategy dominated all low- and high-purchased input strategies.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20691

ASSESSING THE FINANCIAL RISKS OF DIVERSIFIED COFFEE PRODUCTION SYSTEMS:  AN ALTERNATIVE NONNORMAL CDF ESTIMATION APPROACH
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Sosa,   Romeo.
Recently developed techniques are adapted and combined for the modeling and simulation of crop yields and prices that can be mutually correlated, exhibit heteroskedasticity or autocorrelation, and follow nonnormal probability density functions. The techniques are applied to the modeling and simulation of probability distribution functions for the returns of three tropical agroforestry systems for coffee production. The importance of using distribution functions that can more closely reflect the statistical behavior of yields and prices for risk analysis is discussed and illustrated.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30838

Crop Insurance Update (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Murphy,   William J.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90766

ECONOMIC OPTIMISATION OF SPRINKLER IRRIGATION CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTY OF SPATIAL WATER DISTRIBUTION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Feinerman,   Eli; Shani,   Y.; Bresler,   E.
The study is focused on the development and the application of a stochastic economic optimisation model by which optimal levels of applied water and sprinkler spacing are determined. Data on crop-water production function and uniformity of water application are taken from a sprinkler irrigation plot of sweet corn. It was found that a saving of irrigation water can be achieved not only by raising water prices but also by increasing application uniformity.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1989
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22585

An analysis of the determinants of flood damages
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ferreira,   Susana.
In this paper we analyze mortality caused by 2,194 large flood events between 1985 and 2008 in 108 countries. Unlike previous studies that looked at natural-disaster mortality, we find that year-to-year changes in income and institutional determinants of vulnerability do not affect flood mortality directly. Income and institutions influence mortality only indirectly, through their impact on the intensity and frequency of floods. Population exposure affects the number of deaths both directly and indirectly. Higher population exposure results in more deaths once the flood has occurred, but it is associated with smaller floods. In developing countries it also reduces the count of floods.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Natural Disasters; Floods; Mortality; Adaptation; Climate Change; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Development; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98381

How far do shocks move across borders? Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hernandez,   Manuel A.; Ibarra,   Raul; Trupkin,   Danilo R.
This paper examines the dynamics of volatility across major global exchanges for corn, wheat, and soybeans in the United States, Europe, and Asia. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach and account for the potential bias that may arise when considering exchanges with different closing times. The results indicate that agricultural markets are highly interrelated and there are both own- and cross-volatility spillovers and dependence among most of the exchanges. Chicago particularly plays a major role in terms of spillover effects over other markets. Additionally, the level of interdependence between exchanges has only increased in recent years for some commodities.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Volatility transmission; Agricultural commodities; Futures markets; Multivariate GARCH; Risk and Uncertainty; Q11; G15; C32.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122511

RATIONALITY, PRICE RISK, AND RESPONSE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Seale,   James L., Jr.; Shonkwiler,   John Scott.
Risk has long been recognized as potentially important in determining agricultural supply. However, supply response models have either incorporated risk in an ad hoc manner or not at all. A rational expectations supply response model incorporating price risk is developed, an estimation procedure suggested, and an empirical example presented.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1987
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29317

Economic Returns to Entrepreneurial Behavior
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ross,   R. Brent; Westgren,   Randall E.
Highly turbulent environments require firms to act entrepreneurially.  The returns to entrepreneurial activities are known as entrepreneurial rents.  Following the payments perspective, these rents are allocated to the entrepreneurial resources of the firm as factor payments.  However, unlike other factor payments, little is known about how to value these types of rents.  An analysis of the economics and management literature reveals that entrepreneurial rents are a return to alertness, subjective judgment, asset control, and uncertainty bearing.  Furthermore, entrepreneurial rents are noncontractible and temporary.  This paper introduces two complementary valuation models that capture these characteristics and that explicitly impute value to various...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Entrepreneurship; Factor payments; Subjective judgment; Uncertainty; Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty; M13; B12; B25; P23; Q13.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43776

Transgenic technology adoption and on-farm varietal diversity
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Krishna,   Vijesh V.; Zilberman,   David; Qaim,   Matin.
Transgenic pest-resistant varieties are hypothesized to reduce farmers’ demand for on-farm diversity through an act of substitution, as both serve as production risk reducing instruments. This adverse agro-biodiversity impact of technology adoption might be partially counteracted by an expanding seed sector, supplying a large number of transgenic varieties. The case of Bt cotton in India is taken for empirical illustration. The production function analyses show that both Bt technology and on-farm varietal diversity enhance yield, while reducing the production risk. With few Bt varieties available in the first years, technology adoption entailed a reduction in on-farm varietal diversity. This effect, however, was partially offset by more Bt varieties...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agro-biodiversity; Bt cotton; India; Production risk analysis.; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51750

End Materials
Provedor de dados: 31
Includes:  JAAE Manuscript Submission Guidelines; Back Cover; Southern Agricultural Economics Association Executive Committee; Membership and Subscription Information
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; Industrial Organization; International Development; Land Economics/Use; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104613

EX POST MORAL HAZARD IN CROP INSURANCE: COSTLY STATE VERIFICATION OR FALSIFICATION?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rejesus,   Roderick M.
This article examines the extent to which actual crop insurance indemnification behavior conforms to the theoretical predictions of two ex post moral hazard models – costly state verification and costly state falsification. A nonparametric regression technique is used to estimate the crop insurance indemnification profile for non-irrigated cotton in Texas. The results suggest that indemnification behavior in crop insurance is more in line with the costly state falsification paradigm. Thus, crop insurers seem to indemnify based on the assumption that it is not easy to verify actual ex post loss magnitude and eliminate the asymmetric information held by the insured farmers.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19650

Application of Weather Derivatives in Multi-Period Risk Management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vedenov,   Dmitry V.; Sanchez,   Leonardo.
This work is a first attempt to analyze the effect of weather derivative availability on the risk management strategies in a multi-period setting, when crop activities take place twice a year. Rice production in Ecuador is used as a case study.  Numerical solutions show farmers improve their well-being by reducing their risk exposure.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Weather Derivatives; Risk Management; Multi-Period.; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13; Q14.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103740

The Law of the Minimum and Sources of Nonzero Skewness for Crop Yield Distributions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tumusiime,   Emmanuel; Brorsen,   B. Wade; Boyer,   Christopher N.
Crop yields are not commonly found to be normally distributed, but the cause of the non-normal distribution is unclear. The non-normality might be due to weather variables and/or an underlying von Liebig law of the minimum (LoM) production function. Our objective is to determine the degree to which an underlying linear response stochastic plateau production function can explain the skewness of Oklahoma wheat yields at varied nitrogen rates. We use farm-level wheat data from a long-term experiment in Oklahoma, which is a unique data set to the literature. The Tembo et al. (2008) production function provides negative skewness at all levels of nitrogen with skewness near zero for both very high and very low levels of nitrogen. Observed skewness for wheat...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Linear plateau model; Non-normal distributions; Skewness; Wheat; Yield distribution; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q10.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98820

Federal Crop and Crop Revenue Insurance Programs: Determining APH Yields
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Smith,   Vincent H.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29228

EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE RISK SPECIFICATIONS IN FARM PROGRAMMING MODELS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ford,   Stephen A.; Ford,   Beth Pride; Spreen,   Thomas H.
The use of alternative probability density functions to specify risk in farm programming models is explored and compared to a traditional specification using historical data.  A method is described that compares risk efficient crop mixes using stochastic dominance techniques to examine impacts of different risk specifications on farm plans.  Results indicate that a traditional method using historical farm data is as efficient for risk averse producers as two other methods of incorporating risk in farm programming models when evaluated using second degree stochastic dominance.  Stochastic dominance with respect to a function further discriminates among the distributions, indicating that a density function based on the historic forecasting accuracy of the...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1995
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31458

ON THE INCLUSION OF NATURE AND ITS DYNAMICS IN FARMERS' OBJECTIVE FUNCTIONS FOR ECO-SYSTEM SERVICES PROVISION: A NEW STRATEGY IN BIO-ECONOMIC MODELING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nuppenau,   Ernst-August.
Because objectives influence behavior, there should be thoughtfulness of economists on stating objective functions. In contrast, most farm economists work with the assertion that farmers maximize income. A major question is, are there alternatives? It is the aim of this paper to get a deeper insight into deliberations on objective functions. We go beyond income maximization and show how a probabilistic approach on life-styles provides better insight. We suggest the use of probabilities, humans face if they do not know the status in which they live. Labor intensive and nature providing farming is contrasted with intensive, eco-system service extracting farming and put into a dynamic bio-economic approach. Life-styles occur with probability π and (1-π). The...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6653

Front Material
Provedor de dados: 31
Includes: Front Cover; Contents Pages
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48780

Emerging Diseases: Causes, Conditions and Controls
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jeggo,   M.H.; Eaton,   B.T.
There is no doubt of the increasing risk from new and emerging diseases and that such diseases have the potential for profound implications for all sectors of society. The emergence of entirely new diseases such as SARS is usually the result of changes in the way that we do things and is often difficult to predict. The increasing emergence and spread of more traditional diseases may be due not only to evolution of the causative agent but also to the impact that we, as humans, have on our environment. Whatever the cause, the risk is increasing and threatens as much those striving to emerge from poverty as the more developed groups in our society. Understanding better the conditions that drive these changes, recognising emerging diseases earlier than we...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124021

Revenue Insurance as an Income Stabilization Policy: An Application to the Spanish Olive Oil Sector
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bielza,   Maria; Garrido,   Alberto; Sumpsi,   Jose Maria.
Various forms of revenue insurance have been applied in Canada and in the US with relative success. In this paper different combinations of traditional agricultural policies and revenue and yield insurance are analysed for the Spanish olive oil sector. Taking a database containing about half million Spanish olive growers during 8 campaigns, five possible policies are studied and the results are examined according to different criteria including average revenue and its variability, growers utility gains, taxpayers cost and the transfer efficiency of support. The policies analysed are: (1) non-intervention; (2) the policy currently in force in Spain that combines a production aid with a yield insurance; (3) a revenue insurance, only; (4) revenue insurance...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Revenue insurance; Olive oil sector; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24842

The relationship between trade and price volatility in the Mexican and US maize markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Araujo-Enciso,   Sergio Rene.
The supply of maize in the Mexican market depends to a large extent from the US imports which represent a large share of the domestic consumption. Furthermore imports exhibit a seasonal pattern, and peaks are often found close to low levels of domestic production and stocks. The present research suggests that there is a link between imports and prices volatility. Below a threshold value, imports and volatility are not related, but beyond the threshold it is volatility the variable driving imports. From the results one can argue that imports have served as a measure to stabilize prices when the domestic supply is scarce.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Volatility; Maize; Imports; Mexico; Risk and Uncertainty; Q11; Q17.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122544

Spatial Aggregation and Weather Risk Management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Woodard,   Joshua D.; Garcia,   Philip.
Previous studies identify limited potential efficacy of weather derivatives in hedging agricultural exposures.  In contrast to earlier studies which investigate the problem at low levels of aggregation, we find using straight forward temperature contracts that better weather hedging opportunities exist at higher levels of spatial aggregation.  Aggregating production exposures reduces idiosyncratic (i.e. localized or region specific) risk, leaving a greater proportion of the total risk in the form of systemic weather risk which can be effectively hedged using weather derivatives.  The aggregation effect suggests that the potential for weather derivatives in agriculture may be greater than previously thought, particularly for aggregators of risk such as...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Weather derivatives; Spatial aggregation; Corn; Yield risk; Crop insurance; Hedging; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9832

Discussion: Commodity Price Discovery: Problems That Have Solutions or Solutions That Are Problems
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fortenbery,   T. Randall.
This paper examines three invited papers focused on commodity prices. Public responses to high nominal commodity prices and perceived increases in price risk have ranged from attempts to assign blame, attempts to change contracting arrangements, and development of public policy that ‘‘protects’’ the market from future occurrences of unacceptable behavior. Interestingly, a result of increased commodity price volatility has suggested that futures markets no longer ‘‘work.’’ This is ironic given that futures markets initially came into existence as tools for managing the negative impacts of commodity price risk. In response to perceptions of market failure some are looking for strategies to regulate the who and how of futures trading.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Futures markets; Hedging; Price risk; Risk management; Speculation; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty; G13; Q11; Q13; Q14.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53084

Institutional arrangements for land drainage in developing countries
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Freisem,   Claudia; Scheumann,   Waltina.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Drainage; Infrastructure; Irrigable land; Farmer participation; Financing; Land reclamation; Flood control; Irrigated farming; Social aspects; Economic aspects; Environment; Case studies; Operations; Maintenance; Waterlogging; Salinity; Productivity; Food security; Institutional constraints; Communal irrigation systems; Water users' associations; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Land Economics/Use; Productivity Analysis; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92776

2002: PUTTING NEW CROP INSURANCE PROGRAMS TO THE TEST (PowerPoint Presentation)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Davidson,   Ross J., Jr.
POWERPOINT PRESENTATION
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33130

ALMOST IDEAL AREA YIELD CROP INSURANCE CONTRACTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Smith,   Vincent H.; Chouinard,   Hayley H.; Baquet,   Alan E.
Using yield data for a sample of 123 dryland wheat producers in Montana, the effects of three area yield contracts, including the contract currently offered by the United States Federal Crop Insurance Corporation and two individual yield contracts on individual farm yield variability, are examined.  The results indicate that while the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation area yield contract provides all farmers in the sample with some protection against yield variability, a simpler, actuarially equivalent "almost ideal" area yield contract provides substantially larger reductions in yield variability.  However, actuarially equivalent individual yield contracts provide levels of protection against yield variability similar to those obtained under the "almost...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1994
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31315

USING BEST WORST SCALING TO INVESTIGATE PERCEPTIONS OF CONTROL AND CONCERN OVER FOOD AND NON-FOOD RISKS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Erdem,   Seda; Rigby,   Dan.
This research locates a series of risks or hazards within a framework characterized by the level of control respondents believe they have over the risks, and the level of worry the risks prompt. It does this for a set of both food and non-food risks. The means by which this is done is novel and differs from past risk perception analyses in that it asks people directly regarding their relative assessments of the levels of control and worry regarding the risks presented. The cognitive burden associated with people ranking and scaling items in large sets is notoriously heavy and so this study uses an elicitation method designed to make the process intuitive and cognitively manageable for respondents. The substantive analysis of the risk perceptions has 4 main...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Best-worst scaling; Maximum Difference; Food; Risk; Perception; Novel Technology; E.coli; UK; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Q18; Q51; D03; D12.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61518

A STATISTICAL EXAMINATION OF YIELD SWITCHING FRAUD IN THE FEDERAL CROP INSURANCE PROGRAM
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Atwood,   Joseph A.; Robinson-Cox,   Jim; Shaik,   Saleem.
An over-parameterized statistical yield-switching-fraud model is developed.   Over-parameterized procedures are reviewed. Five percent of 206,952 producers (thirteen percent in one state) have suspicious yield patterns, elect higher coverage, and increase total multiple-unit indemnifications up to ten percent in some states and up to 30 percent at some coverage levels.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19983

FOREWORD: Special Issue on Crop Insurance and Risk Management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Turvey,   Calum G.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44732

Cross-Hedging Fishmeal: Exploring Corn and Soybean Meal Futures Contracts
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Parcell,   Joseph L.; Boessen,   Christian R.; Altman,   Ira J.; Sanders,   Dwight R.
During 2006 the fishmeal price nearly doubled from $500MT to over $900MT. The objective of this research is to determine the optimal cross-hedge ratio between fishmeal and soybean meal and corn, and corresponding hedging weight between corn and soybean. Results indicate all hedging weight should be placed on the corn futures contract. This is an interesting result since prior fishmeal cross-hedging research has not analyzed the corn futures contract as a risk management mechanism.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6763

INFORMATION VALUE AND RISK PREMIUM IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION UNDER RISK: THE CASE OF SPLIT NITROGEN APPLICATION FOR CORN
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Thomas,   Alban; Bontems,   Philippe.
This paper considers an agricultural production model of sequential nitrogen application under risk. Because of random shocks between successive production stages, optimal fertilization decisions depend on the magnitude of farmers' risk aversion (risk premium), and the possibility for farmers to process information (value of information). We propose a joint estimation procedure of technology and risk aversion parameters, using a structural, simulation-based econometric technique. Parameter estimates for the representative farmer's utility function allow to compute both the value of information and the risk premium for farmers. Those account together for about 30 percent of fertilizer cost for Midwest corn producers.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20844

Farm-level Acreage Allocation under Risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Polome,   Philippe; Harmignie,   Olivier; Frahan,   Bruno Henry de.
We model the area allocation decision problem for a fixed size crop farm under random yields and prices for a risk-averse farmer. We assume that in the short run, the variable input expenses are fixed per hectare and per crop (an assumption that is motivated by our data). Therefore the cost function depends only on the non-stochastic area allocation. The first order conditions of the model involve integrals across functions of random variables that do not in general have closed form solutions. Numerical simulation techniques are used to calibrate the parameters of the cost function. The two sources of randomness, price and yield, are combined into a single random variable, the yield-in-value. Based on examination of panels of yield-in-value data, we assume...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21306

Weather index drought insurance: an ex ante evaluation for millet growers in Niger
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Leblois,   Antoine; Quirion,   Philippe; Alhassane,   Agali; Traore,   Seydou.
In the Sudano-Sahelian region, which includes South Niger, the inter-annual variability of the rainy season is high and irrigation is scarce. As a consequence, bad rainy seasons have a massive impact on crop yield and regularly entail food crises. Traditional insurances based on crop damage assessment are not available because of asymmetric information and high transaction costs compared to the value of production. We assess the risk mitigation capacity of an alternative form of insurance which has been implemented in India since 2003: insurance based on a weather index. We compare the capacity of various weather indices to increase utility of a representative risk-averse farmer. We show the importance of using plot-level yield data rather than village...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Index-based insurance.; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; G21; O12; Q12; Q18; Q54.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120378

Asymmetry, Risk, and Correlation Dynamics in the U.S. Fiber Market
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fadiga,   Mohamadou L.; Misra,   Sukant K.
This study looked at the dynamics of conditional correlations and hedging strategies in the US main cotton producing regions. A two-step procedure was utilized to model, estimate, and analyze volatility, conditional correlations, and the optimal hedge ratios using spot prices in the Delta, Southeast, Southern Plains, and the Southwest regions and the New York commodity exchanges December futures contracts.  The results indicate that volatilities in most of the regions are asymmetric and persistent. The derived conditional correlations and the optimal hedging ratios are dynamic although they do not have unit root. Moreover, the changes in agricultural policies altered the dynamics of correlations and producers' hedging strategies in the Delta, Southeast,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Cotton; Volatility; Asymmetry; Multivariate conditional correlations; Optimal; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19459

DROUGHT ASSISTANCE POLICY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Freebairn,   John W.
Droughts are a feature of the Australian agricultural scene. Most farmers develop successful strategies to grapple with drought. The purchased fodder and interest rate subsidies used in the 1982-83 drought are analysed. As partial input subsidies, they had serious flaws in meeting goals of efficiency, equity and welfare support. Alternative policies to provide incentives for rational private decision making and to provide direct welfare support are discussed and advocated as a preferable approach to future droughts.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1983
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22745

Managing Producer Price Risk in Mexico with Quantos and Dual Risk Commodity-Foreign Exchange Hedges
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Verteramo,   Leslie J.; Turvey,   Calum G.
Replaced with revised version of paper 07/21/10.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/62062

Volatilidade dos retornos econômicos associados à integração lavoura-pecuária no estado do Paraná
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lazzarotto,   Joelsio Jose; Santos,   Maurinho Luiz dos; Lima,   Joao Eustaquio de; Moraes,   Anibal de.
In the Brazilian agriculture, there is a great diversity and heterogeneity of production systems that are subject to wide number of factors of risks. Although these risks cannot be completely eliminated, they can be minimized by adopting some strategies, as the diversification with agricultural and cattle activities. Based on the research historical results of the Paraná’s agriculture e with the measurement of the value-at-risk, this work aimed to analyze the volatility of the economic returns of integrated crop-beef cattle systems compared to systems characterized by grain cultivation or beef cattle specialization. As results, we observed that, in the short-term, the integrated crop-livestock system is the alternative that trends to generate better...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm systems; Risk; Value-at-risk; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56860

A Note on the Value of Lifesaving
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hanemann,   W. Michael.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1979
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6302

The state-contingent approach to production under uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Quiggin,   John C.; Chambers,   Robert G.
The central claim of this paper is that the state-contingent approach provides the best way to think about all problems in the economics of uncertainty, including problems of consumer choice, the theory of the firm, and principal–agent relationships. This claim is illustrated by recent developments in, and applications of, the state-contingent approach.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk; State-contingent production; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116925

CONDUCT AND VOLATILITY IN FOOD-PRICE DETERMINATION: VAR EVIDENCE FROM TURKISH AGRICULTURE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Holloway,   Garth J.; Bayaner,   Ahmet.
The relationship between price volatility and competition is examined.  A theoretic, vector autoregressions on farm prices of wheat and retail prices of derivatives (flour, bread, pasta, bulgur and cookies) are compared to results from a dynamic, simultaneous-equations model with theory-based farm-to-retail linkages.  Analytical results yield insights about numbers of firms and their impacts on demand- and supply-side multipliers, but the applications to Turkish time series (1988:1-1996:12) yield mixed results.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Conduct; Volatility; Food marketing.; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20795

Introduction of Weather Index Insurance in Ukraine - Obstacles and Opportunities
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shynkarenko,   Roman.
Agricultural insurance in Ukraine is mostly offered on the basis of traditional products including PMCI, named perils and single peril coverage. The index concept was introduced in 2001 though until 2005 the insurance companies provided index crop insurance through area-based yield index program. The first weather index transactions (lack of rainfall index) were executed in 2005 for winter wheat at the South of Ukraine. The pilot project on weather index insurance was conducted by the World Bank organizations (IFC Agribusiness Development project and Commodity Risk Management Group) in 2003-2006. The project team proposed assistance in design and promotion of weather index insurance products for agricultural applications. Unfortunately, due to various...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Weather index; Risk management; Risk mitigation; Crop insurance; Farm management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9244

INVESTIGATING THE IMPLICATIONS OF MULTI-CROP REVENUE INSURANCE FOR PRODUCER RISK MANAGEMENT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Miller,   J. Corey; Coble,   Keith H.; Barnett,   Barry J.
This study investigates the potential for alternative multi-crop revenue insurance designs in  comparison to single crop yield and  revenue insurance designs. A  non-parametric multi-crop insurance model is developed which subsumes the single crop designs. The results compare alternative designs in terms of rate levels and risk reduction gains for representative Mississippi producers.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Revenue insurance; Risk; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15802

A Comparison of Risk Preference Measurements with Implications for Extension Programming
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Schurle,   Bryan W.; Tierney,   William I., Jr.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 1990
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118185

Technological and financial approaches to risk management in agriculture: an integrate approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chambers,   Robert G.; Quiggin,   John C.
In the present paper, risk‐management problems where farmers manage risk both through production decisions and through the use of market‐based and informal risk‐management mechanisms are considered. It is shown that many of these problems share a common structure, and that a unified and informative treatment of a broad spectrum of risk‐management tools is possible within a cost‐minimisation framework, under minimal conditions on their objective functions. Fundamental results are derived that apply regardless of the producer's preference towards risks, using only the no‐arbitrage condition that agricultural producers never forego any opportunity to lower costs without lowering returns.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117960

Risk measurement: an introduction to value at risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Linsmeier,   Thomas J.; Pearson,   Neil D.
This paper is a self-contained introduction to the concept and methodology of "value at risk," which is a new tool for measuring an entity's exposure to market risk. We explain the concept of value at risk, and then describe in detail the three methods for computing it: historical simulation; the variance-covariance method; and Monte Carlo or stochastic simulation. We then discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the three methods for computing value at risk. Finally, we briefly describe some alternative measures of market risk.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1996
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14796

Land Owner Characteristics and Perceptions in Northeast and Southeast Missouri: The Economic and Social Value of Flood Plain Agroforestry to Rural Development Projects
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Valdivia,   Corinne; Konduru,   Srinivasa; Raedeke,   Andrew; Green,   John J.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Community/Rural/Urban Development; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92883

ASSESSMENT OF MARKET RISK IN HOG PRODUCTION USING VALUE-AT-RISK AND EXTREME VALUE THEORY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Odening,   Martin; Hinrichs,   Jan.
The objective of this paper is to investigate the performance of different VaR models in the context of risk assessment in hog production. Potential pitfalls of traditional VaR models are pinpointed and proposals to solve them are analyzed. After a brief description these methods are used to calculate the VaR of the hog finishing margin under German market conditions. In particular we apply Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to our data and compare the results with historical simulation (HS) and the variance-covariance method (VCM). Hill's estimator is used to determine the tail index of the extreme distribution of the gross margin in hog finishing and farrow production. A bootstrap method proposed by Danielsson et al. (1999) is adopted to choose the optimal...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19907

Input Price Risk and the Adoption of Conservation Technology
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Schoengold,   Karina; Sunding,   David L.
Replaced with revised version of poster 07/12/11.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Price risk; Technology adoption; Matching; Propensity score; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q1; Q5.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103857

Livestock Revenue Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hart,   Chad E.; Babcock,   Bruce A.; Hayes,   Dermot J.
This study outlines several possible structures for livestock revenue insurance. The policies take the form of an exotic option—an Asian basket option. The actuarially fair premiums for these policies are equal to the prices of the options they represent. Due to the complexity of pricing Asian basket options, we have combined two techniques for pricing options to reach the actuarially fair premiums. Projected premiums, producer welfare, and program efficiency are evaluated for the insurance products and existing market tools. Using efficiency ratios and certainty equivalent returns, we compare the insurance policies to strategies involving existing futures and options.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Insurance; Livestock; Revenue; Options; Asian basket option; Premiums; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18356

VULNERABILITY AND RISK MANAGEMENT AMONG TURKMEN LEASEHOLDERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Glukhikh,   Rimma; Lerman,   Zvi; Schwartz,   Moshe.
High risk is inherent to agriculture in Turkmenistan, a post-socialist desert country where the political uncertainties of transition exacerbate natural unpredictability. This study examines risk coping strategies of Turkmen farmers based on a survey of 1100 respondents carried out in 2002 in all five provinces. We propose a new composite index of vulnerability, which includes human capital indicators and geographic location. The analysis relies on a single independent variable, which nevertheless incorporates the effect of criteria interactions. Using survey data, we analyze income smoothing as a mechanisms of risk management across vulnerability groups. Consistently with theoretical expectations, the most vulnerable households seem prefer a smaller, but...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Turkmenistan; Transition; Vulnerability; Income smoothing; Risk and Uncertainty; D1; J2; Q12.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7144

The Environmental Impacts of Subsidized Crop Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: LaFrance,   Jeffrey T.; Shimshack,   Jay P.; Wu,   Steven Y.
A partial equilibrium model of stochastic crop production is used to analyze the environmental impacts of popular subsidized crop insurance programs. Land use is unchanged only when an actuarially fair, perfectly separating insurance contract is offered. For the more typical pooling equilibrium contracts, however, land with a minimum quality that is strictly lower than the minimum quality without insurance will be added to production. In such cases, the environment will be adversely effected. If economically marginal land is also environmentally marginal, pooling crop insurance policies disproportionately contribute to the degradation of the environment. Popular subsidies merely exacerbate the problem.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25082

FAIR VALUE OF WHOLE-FARM AND CROP-SPECIFIC REVENUE INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hennessy,   David A.; Saak,   Alexander E.; Babcock,   Bruce A.
The U.S. market in subsidized commodity revenue insurance contracts has expanded rapidly since 1996.  By far the most prevalent contract forms are crop-specific, rather than the whole-farm design which has a better claim to being optimal.  For an arbitrary acre allocation vector, this paper inquires into absolute and relative determinants of the actuarial costs of these forms.  The actuarial value of whole-farm insurance increases under a particular characterization of &gt;more systematic= risk, whereas the actuarial value of insurance through crop-specific contracts need not change.  Upon fixing stochastic revenue interactions, we identify conditions such that the expected cost of revenue insurance via crop-specific contracts is increasing under a more...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21988

Harvest Cost and Value of Citrus Operations with Alternative Technology: Real Options Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Iwai,   Nobuyuki; Emerson,   Robert D.; Roka,   Fritz M.
The prospect of immigration policy reform has renewed growers’ concerns of serious labor shortages and cost increases. These concerns are more serious for specialty crop agriculture, not only because it is highly labor intensive, but also it requires labor in a very short period, particularly at harvest time. Two representative approaches of the investment valuation have been applied to the case of harvesting mechanization for the model citrus grower in Florida. Specifically, we applied the NPV approach and the real options approach (ROA) to processed-market Hamlin orange operations in Southwest Florida.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Real options; NPV; Mechanization; Immigration policy; Harvest cost; Citrus operations; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Labor and Human Capital; Risk and Uncertainty; Q14 – Agricultural Finance; J43 – Agricultural Labor Markets.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49942

THE FEDERAL CROP INSURANCE PROGRAM: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Barnett,   Barry J.
Speech and PowerPoint Presentation
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33135

AN ANALYSIS OF THE YIELD-PRICE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH SPECIALTY CROPS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Weisensel,   Ward P.; Schoney,   Richard A.
Specialty crops have been cited as means to diversify crop portfolios on the prairies.  Lentils, a specialty crop, have high variability in yields and prices but are relatively uncorrelated with the yields and prices of other traditional Saskatchewan crops.  In addition, yields and prices of lentils may be negatively correlated.  These attributes have important but offsetting effects in crop portfolio selection.  The objective of this article is to assess the relative profitability and riskiness of wheat and lentil rotations for a representative Saskatchewan farm and to select appropriate farmers who should consider production of lentils.  The cumulative density function of net returns are simulated for both rotations assuming stochastic prices and yields....
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1989
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32356

Percepção e respostas gerenciais ao risco: um estudo sobre os produtores de leite do Programa de Desenvolvimento da Pecuária Leiteira da Região de Viçosa - MG
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vale,   Sonia Maria Leite Ribeiro do; Pereira,   Vanessa da Fonseca; Lima Neto,   Antonio Carlos; Sant'Anna,   Julio Cezar Oliveira.
The agriculture sector has particular characteristics, general and unfavorable, which make its participants exposed to risks, and increase the complexity of making decisions. However, little is known about how farmers perceive risk in their activity. Based on a research done in the Zona da Mata region in the State of Minas Gerais, this work shows the view of a group of milk producers about the risks which they are exposed to, and also, describes the tools used by them as managing responses to these risks. Firstly, the farmers answered about the importance of the different kinds of risks in their business, and next, pointed out the methods they use to manage them. The results show the lack of a formal risk managing strategy, which has been substituted up to...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural risk management; Information; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54599

Estimating the Costs of MPCI Under the 1994 Crop Insurance Reform Act
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hart,   Chad E.; Smith,   Darnell B.
This study estimates the government costs of federal crop insurance under the framework of the Crop Insurance Reform Act of 1994. The history of federal crop insurance is outlined to examine how MPCI has evolved. The 1994 Act addressed two of the major problems of MPCI: low participation and additional disaster assistance. Total government costs for the FCIC and MPCI are estimated to be more than $2 billion, on average, from 1996 to 2003, with half of this amount being in the form of premium subsidies paid by the government.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1996
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18504

IMPACT OF RISK PREFERENCES ON CROP ROTATION CHOICE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Maynard,   Leigh J.; Harper,   Jayson K.; Hoffman,   Lynn D.
Stochastic dominance analysis of five crop rotations using twenty-one years of experimental yield data returned results consistent with Pennsylvania cropping practices.  The analysis incorporated yield risk, output price risk, and rotational yield effects.  A rotation of two years corn and three years alfalfa hay dominated for approximately risk neutral and risk averse preferences, as did participation in government programs under the 1990 Farm Bill.  Crop rotation selection appeared to impact net revenues more than the decision to participate in government programs.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1997
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31363

OPPORTUNITY COSTS, SHARE LEASING, AND PREVENTED PLANTING CLAIMS IN CROP INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rejesus,   Roderick M.; Escalante,   Cesar L.; Cross,   Mike H.
This paper determines whether the opportunity costs of share leasing and the share amounts of farmers/tenants affect the likelihood of submitting a prevented planting claim. Results from our probit analysis shows that lower opportunity costs of share leasing and higher farmer/tenant share amount can increase the probability of submitting a prevented planting. These results have potential implications for setting prevented planting buy-up rates and crop insurance compliance procedures.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35017

Risk premiums and GM traits
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nolan,   Elizabeth; Santos,   Paulo.
An argument in favor of the development of genetically modified (GM) hybrids is that their presence is considered to be risk decreasing. On this basis, insurance premiums for corn growers in the United States who plant approved hybrids have been reduced. In this study we investigate, using a large dataset of experimental data compiled from reports of results from experimental field trials of corn hybrids by the State Agricultural Extension Services of ten universities over 20 years, whether the presence in a corn hybrid of a GM trait, or a combination of these traits, is likely to increase or decrease risk. The effects of input use on production uncertainty can be quantified through the specification and estimation of heteroskedastic production functions...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Production functions; Yield; Risk; Skewness; Corn; Genetically modified traits; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; C2; Q12; Q16.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103692

Electronic vs. Open Outcry: Side-by-Side Trading of KCBT Wheat Futures
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shah,   Samarth; Brorsen,   B. Wade.
This study compares liquidity costs of electronic and open-outcry wheat futures contracts traded side-by-side on the Kansas City Board of Trade. Liquidity costs are considerably lower in the electronic market. Liquidity costs in the electronic market are still considerably lower after eliminating the bias created by splitting orders in the electronic market. Price volatility and transaction size are positively related to liquidity costs, while a negative relation is found between daily volume and liquidity costs. Price clustering at whole cent prices occurs in the open-outcry market which helps explain its higher liquidity costs. Daily volumes were distinctively higher during the Goldman-Sachs roll, but not enough to explain the higher liquidity costs in...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Bid-ask spread; Electronic trading; Execution costs; KCBT; Liquidity; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/105518

Risk Management Instruments for Water Reallocations
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hart,   Chad E.
Federal and state governments are searching for programs and/or policies to deal with the risks linked with uncertainty in water supplies and demands. Within the United States, competition among agricultural, urban, and environmental concerns for water is increasing. Drought conditions and water use restrictions have, at times, limited water supplies for these varied uses. The federal government stands in a unique position as both a major supplier and demander of water. As such, the federal government has put forward several programs for water conservation, information, and usage. One area in which the federal government has not made significant progress is the issue of risk management and compensation for water reallocations. When natural forces or...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Government policy; Reallocation; Risk management; Water rights; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18298

Vulnerability to risk among small farmers in Tajikistan: results of a 2011 survey
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lerman,   Zvi; Wolfgramm,   Bettina.
Tajikistan is judged to be highly vulnerable to risk, including food insecurity risks and climate change risks. By some vulnerability measures it is the most vulnerable among all 28 countries in the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia Region – ECA (World Bank 2009). The rural population, with its relatively high incidence of poverty, is particularly vulnerable. The Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) in Tajikistan (2011) provided an opportunity to conduct a farm-level survey with the objective of assessing various dimensions of rural population’s vulnerability to risk and their perception of constraints to farming operations and livelihoods. The survey should be accordingly referred to as the 2011 PPCR survey. The rural population in Tajikistan is...
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Farmers; Tajikistan; Survey; Risk; Climate change; Tajikistan’s agriculture; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119833

What Happens when Peter can't Pay Paul: Risk Management at Futures Exchange Clearinghouses
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shi,   Wei; Irwin,   Scott H.
We model a futures exchange's clearinghouse as a "bank" holding a portfolio of credit lines available to its clearing members and collateralized with clearing margins or, equivalently, a portfolio of short European put basket options. Consequently, the "bank" model measures the clearinghouse's risk exposure as the sum of the payoff functions of these put options, emphasizing the portfolio diversification and the option-like payoffs. The model is used to assess exchange's clearinghouse's liquidity and credit risk exposure. The model provides exchange clearinghouses and government regulators with a theoretical framework of risk management that systematically integrates clearing margin requirements,credit lines and economic capital.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21087

Influence of strategies and heuristics on farmers’ response to change under uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Murray-Prior,   Roy B.; Wright,   Vic.
Hierarchical Decision Models of woolproducers’ decisions provide unique insights into the impact of major price changes. Producers’ lagged response in some contexts appear to be due to the ambiguous decision environment they face, their strategic goals and responses to that environment apart from lags caused by factors such as attitude to risk, expectations adjustment, adjustment costs and learning costs. Much of the response to major price changes comes from strategic decisions to change enterprises rather than marginal changes to existing enterprises. In ambiguous environments, methods may need to be found that incorporate simplifying behavioral rules and strategies.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117729

A TWO-STAGE MODEL OF THE DEMAND FOR SPECIALTY CROP INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Richards,   Timothy J.
Recent proposals to reform the federal Multiple-Peril Crop Insurance Program for specialty crops raised concerns that a higher cost for catastrophic-level coverage would significantly reduce program participation. This study estimates the demand for three levels of insurance coverage (50%, 65%, 75%) using aggregate data from grape production in 11 California counties from 1986-96. A discrete/continuous econometric model of the choice of coverage level and the amount of insurance finds that the price-elasticity of demand for 50% coverage is elastic, suggesting that premium increases may indeed reduce participation significantly. Such increases may also cause a significant reallocation of growers among coverage levels.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30828

Sorting and Blending Under Quality Uncertainty: Application to Wheat Protein
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Johnson,   D. Demcey.
Quality uncertainty is of considerable interest to the grain industry.  In this paper, uncertainty is incorporated in a model of grain blending decisions.  A mixed-integer, nonlinear optimization problem is developed.  Simulations illustrate the effect of crop quality on blending decisions, and the effect of blending activities on the distribution of protein within a wheat marketing channel.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Industrial Organization; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36316

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THE ASIAN CLIMBING PERCH ON QUEENSLAND
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: East,   Miriam; Micke,   Wade.
Risk of establishment of the freshwater climbing perch (Anabas testudineus) in mainland Queensland from the Torres Strait is high. The species is dispersed through human assistance and/or attributes that assist its own spread. The species has the potential to out-compete native freshwater and estuarine species, and has sharp well-developed gill plates and spines that may choke and kill predatory species like barramundi if swallowed. The presence of climbing perch would severely impact Queensland’s inshore and freshwater fisheries, both commercial and recreational. The net present value of expected lost fishing activity due to build-up of the climbing perch is $48.5 million when the probability of introduction is 20 per cent. Analysis of potential spending...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Invasive species; Impact; Risk; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6018

A RISK PERCEPTION ANALYSIS OF GENETICALLY MODIFIED FOODS BASED ON STATED PREFERENCES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bugbee,   Marcia; Loureiro,   Maria L.
Most of the existing literature deals with consumer willingness to pay for GM-free food, or consumer willingness to accept for GM food.  However, it is well know that consumers have mixed views about GM foods.  In this research, we do not presume that all consumers may just have positive or negative preferences about GM products.  Rather, heterogeneous preferences are considered.  This paper presents a contingent valuation questioning sequence and associated modeling approaches that allow identification of both positive and negative preferences. Willingness to pay (WTP) for the GM product is contrasted with willingness to accept (WTA) compensation to buy it.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22017

Two Sides of the Same Coin? Analysis of the Web-Based Social Media with Regard to the Image of the Agri-Food Sector in Germany
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Boehm,   Justus; Kayser,   Maike; Spiller,   Achim.
Never before has food been as safe and secure as it is today, but simultaneously, society has become increasingly critical towards agricultural and food related issues. This two-sided development between society and agribusiness will be analyzed using Framing Theory. A quantitative semantic analysis was applied to evaluate the web-based social media in Germany. 50,931 web posts were collected covering 21 issues identified as relevant for the agri-food sector. The results show that all contentious issues are mainly framed in a two-sided way. The modern productivity-driven industry is judged as a negative development, trends returning to a more natural food production are seen as positive.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agri-food industry; Framing; Image; Issue management; Social media; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Production Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97029

An Experimental Investigation of Inter-temporal Risk Decision-making (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Coble,   Keith H.; Lusk,   Jayson L.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Decision-making; Risk and Uncertainty; D81.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48911

The Impact of the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) Program on the Effectiveness of Crop Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hong,   Sung Wook; Power,   Gabriel J.; Vedenov,   Dmitry V.
This paper analyzes the effect of the ACRE program adopted in the final version of the 2007 Farm Bill on the risk-reducing effectiveness of insurance products. To the best of our knowledge this is a first attempt to analyze the effect of the ACRE program on the risk management decisions of crop producers. In particular, we compare the risk-reducing effectiveness of the two most common insurance contracts — APH and CRC — under the provisions of the 2002 Farm Bill and under ACRE program for representative cotton producer in Texas and corn producer in Illinois. These particular crop/region combinations are selected so as to represent situations of low and high price-yield correlations, respectively.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Farm Bill; ACRE; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46755

Economic Analysis of Supplemental Deductible Coverage as Recommended in the USDA's 2007 Farm Bill Proposal
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mitchell,   Paul D.; Knight,   Thomas O.
A primary change to crop insurance contained in the USDA’s Farm Bill proposal is supplemental deductible coverage (SDC). SDC would allow farmers who purchase individual crop insurance coverage to purchase area-wide coverage in the amount of the individual policy deductible. This supplemental area-wide coverage would be similar to the existing Group Risk Plan policy, but with an accelerated indemnity schedule. Analysis indicates that SDC increases farmer certainty equivalents. The largest benefits are realized by farmers with high yield potential in counties with greater systemic risk. In general, optimal individual policy coverage levels modestly decrease when SDC is taken.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Area-wide coverage; Actual production history (APH); Group risk plan (GRP); Yield distribution; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44743

Private Labels in the Austrian Food Market: A Qualitative Forecast Using the Scenario Technique
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Meixner,   Oliver; Leitner,   Amina.
The Austrian food market may be characterized by high competitiveness, market saturation and the fact, that listing on the shelves of trade organizations’ outlets has become the imperative success factor for food producing companies. Never before has it been harder, there have never been more obstacles in reaching the point of sale - because the shelves in supermarket stores are full. The degree of concentration within the food trade sector has reached an all-time high: The three biggest supermarket chains in Austria account for more than 80% of all sales (business to consumer, B2C). Therefore, distribution of food to consumers lies in the hands of only a few organizations, which gives them huge negotiation power, which has provoked irritations in the past...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59177

2008 Farm Bill – Focus on ACRE  (Average Crop Revenue Election)(PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zulauf,   Carl R.
Presented to USDA Economists Group, Washington, DC, 03 October 2008.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Revenue protection; Farm bill; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43907

Drivers and Barriers to Innovation in the Food Processing Industry Continued. A Comparison of the Netherlands and the Shanghai Region in China
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fortuin,   Frances T.J.M.; Omta,   S.W.F. (Onno).
This paper aims at comparing the innovative potential of leading food processing companies in emerging and developed economies. We asked ourselves how the clearly differing economic and social conditions of two areas that are only comparable in terms of their number of inhabitants (about 16 to 18 million), namely a fast growing emerging economy (the Shanghai area in China) and a developed economy (The Netherlands) affect competitiveness and innovation of their leading prospector companies. Our study population consisted of 31 respondents (CEOs, CTOs and R&amp;D directors) from 18 leading prospector companies in the food processing industry: nine in the Netherlands and nine in Shanghai. We focus on how the combination of external forces exerted by actors in...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59198

Agricultural Risk Management in the European Union and in the USA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Szekely,   Csaba; Palinkas,   Peter.
Risk management has become increasingly important in virtually all aspects of the economy, including agriculture. Every country that considers agriculture a strategically important economic sector strives for effective risk management in agriculture. In our study American and European Union farmers’ risk management practices were, based on various surveys, compared. In terms of agricultural risk management, major differences between the USA and the EU were evident, and these derive from different farming cultures, differences in historical evolution, and economic philosophy. This study provides an overview regarding the important similarities and dissimilarities.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Risk management; Risk perception; EU; USA; Surveys.; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49193

Effects of Credit Constraints on Productivity and Rural Household Income in China
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dong,   Fengxia; Lu,   Jing; Featherstone,   Allen M.
Agricultural production is strongly conditioned by the fact that inputs are transformed into outputs with considerable time lags, causing the rural household to balance its budget during the season when there are high expenditures for input purchases and consumption and few revenues. With limited access to credit, the budget balance within the year can become a constraint to agricultural production. As is the case in many developing countries, Chinese rural households have been suffering from a lack of access to capital. While China is one of the biggest countries in terms of rural areas and agricultural production, few studies have focused on the impact of credit on agriculture in China. Using survey data, this study aims to examine how credit constraints...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Credit constraint; Household income; Productivity; Rural China.; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; International Development; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95764

Risk Governance in Bulgarian Dairy Farming
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bachev,   Hrabrin Ianouchev; Nanseki,   T.
This paper identifies and assesses the efficiency of major modes for risk governance in Bulgarian dairy farming. Firstly, New Institutional Economics is incorporated and framework for analyzing governance of natural, market, private, and social (institutional) risks presented. Next, major types of risks faced by the dairy farms are specified and dominant market, private, public and hybrid modes of risk governance assessed. Finally, principal forms of risks caused by the dairy farms are identified, and efficiency of governing structure assessed. The development of Bulgarian dairy farming has been associated with quite specific risk structures facing by and causing from this sector. The huge market and institutional instability and uncertainty, and the high...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk management; Dairy; Bulgaria; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44136

PROCUREMENT RISKS AND STRATEGIES TO IMPROVE QUALITY CONSISTENCY IN WHEAT SHIPMENTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wilson,   William W.; Dahl,   Bruce L.
Consistency of functional characteristics in wheat is a concern confronting buyers and sellers.  This research analyzes the cost and risk of different procurement strategies for importers.  A stochastic simulation model is used to determine the  probability of a functional characteristic being satisfied subject to quality targets and costs for alternative purchase strategies (purchase by protein only, variety, location, variety by location, or functional tests).  Joint probabilities of meeting specifications and costs were determined for the alternative purchase strategies.  Stochastic dominance was used to determine which purchase strategies dominate others, and stochastic efficiency was utilized to determine the degree of preference.  Results indicate...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Buying Strategies; Location; Variety; Functional Characteristic Tests; Costs; Risks; Simulation; Stochastic Dominance; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23498

PERFORMANCE OF RISK-INCOME MODELS OUTSIDE THE ORIGINAL DATA SET
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Atwood,   Joseph A.; Held,   Larry J.; Helmers,   Glenn A.; Watts,   Myles J.
Selected risk programming solutions (i.e., profit maximization, Target-MOTAD, and MOTAD) are tested in an economic environment outside the data set from which they were developed. Specifically, solutions are derived from either a longer 10-year (1965-74) or shorter 6-year estimation period (1969-74), and then, they are tested for consistent risk-income characteristics over a later 10-year period (1975-84). Risk solutions estimated from earlier periods perform well in the later test period in spite of different economic conditions between time periods. However, favorable performance may be related to the specific example used in this analysis. Further testing for other farm situations is needed before general conclusions can be reached.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1986
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29775

Regional Yield Insurance for Arable Crops in EU-27
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bielza,   Maria; Catenaro,   Remo; Conte,   Costanza G.; Gallego,   Francisco J.
Replaced with revised version of paper 11/18/08.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Area yield insurance; Index insurance; Yield risk; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43690

THE VALUE OF REDUCING TEMPORAL INPUT NONUNIFORMITIES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Babcock,   Bruce A.; Blackmer,   Alfred M.
The producer value of reducing temporal uncertainty concerning the level of soil nitrate is estimated for corn production in Iowa. The reduction in uncertainty is obtained through use of a late-spring nitrate test. Parametric representations of conditional densities of soil nitrates are used along with an estimated production function to estimate optimal nitrogen fertilizer applications under both uncertainty and certainty for a representative risk-neutral Iowa corn farm. Results indicate that decreasing uncertainty could reduce average fertilizer applications by up to 38% and that producer returns could be increased by up to $22.08/acre.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1992
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30949

Resilience in Ecology and Belief
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ranjan,   Ram.
Replaced with revised version of paper 06/18/08.  Former title:  Non-Linearity in Belief and Environmental Risk Dynamics
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Belief dynamics; Ecological hysteresis; Water scarcity; Groundwater dependent ecosystems; Threshold effects; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/5999

Reale Optionen und Landwirtschaftliche Betriebslehre – oder: Kann man mit der Optionspreistheorie arbitrieren?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Odening,   Martin; Musshoff,   Oliver.
This paper discusses the real options approach to investment. Real options facilitate an analysis of investment under uncertainty explicitly taking into account irreversibility of the investment decision and flexibility with respect to the investment timing. This is achieved by exploiting the analogy between a financial option and an investment project. We pinpoint the relation to traditional methods of capital budgeting as well as the special features of this concept, namely the exclusion of arbitrage opportunities and the independence of individual risk preferences. Analytical and numerical solution procedures for option pricing are presented. An application to investments in hog finishing illustrates the main ideas of the real options approach. It turns...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Real options; Investment under uncertainty; Flexibility; Contingent claim analysis; Hysteresis; Hog finishing; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99004

QUALITY MEASUREMENT AND RISK-SHARING IN CONTRACTS FOR CALIFORNIA FRUITS AND VEGETABLES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hueth,   Brent; Ligon,   Ethan.
We hypothesize that imperfect quality measurement in contracts for fresh fruits and vegetables results in a moral-hazard problem, and that the final price of the produce provides additional information regarding quality.  As a consequence, growers are not shielded from all price risk.  This hypothesis is tested informally with observations on actual contracts in California.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20957

Risk and uncertainty at the farm level
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Larson,   James A.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48728

Selling formal Insurance to the Informally Insured
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mobarak,   A. Mushfiq; Rosenzweig,   Mark R.
Unpredictable rainfall is an important risk for agricultural activity, and farmers in developing countries often receive incomplete insurance from informal risk-sharing networks.  We study the demand for, and effects of, offering formal index-based rainfall insurance through a randomized experiment in an environment where the informal risk sharing network can be readily identified and richly characterized: sub-castes in rural India. A model allowing for both idiosyncratic and aggregate risk shows that informal networks lower the demand for formal insurance only if the network indemnifies against aggregate risk, but not if its primary role is to insure against farmer-specific losses.  When formal insurance carries basis risk (mismatches between payouts and...
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Index insurance; Risk sharing; Basis risk; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; International Development; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; O17; O13; O16.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121671

STRUCTURAL MODELS OF AREA YIELD CROP INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramaswami,   Bharat; Roe,   Terry L.
Earlier analyses of area yield crop insurance schemes used a reduced form linear relationship between individual and area yield.  However, without knowledge of the structural framework, the analysis and design of alternative schemes is problematic.  This paper resolves this problem.  The paper characterizes the entire class of structural models equivalent to the reduced form.  As a result, the beta, the slope coefficient of the reduced form is expressed as a function of structural parameters.  Second, the structural model is used to analyze the relation between the aggregation (that determines area yields) and the risk reduction due to area yield insurance.  Third, we consider optimal area yield insurance for an important class of structural models not...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Area Yield; Beta; Crop Insurance; Systemic Risks; Risk and Uncertainty; G22; Q14.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20638

A Comparison of Risk Exposure in Aquaculture and Agricultural Businesses
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Flaten,   Ola; Lien,   Gudbrand D.; Tveteras,   Ragnar.
Agriculture and aquaculture have common features associated with their biological nature affecting risk exposure of the businesses. The aim of this paper is to compare risk exposure in salmon farming and agricultural enterprises in Norway by using an implicit error component model to examine the risk structure of yields, prices and economic returns at the farm level. Results indicate a higher farm-level year-to-year variability in yields, prices and economic returns in salmon farming than in agricultural enterprises. The variability in livestock enterprises was generally lower than for crop enterprises. Return on assets was highest in salmon farming with an average annual return of 9.2%. All of the agricultural farm types exhibited a negative average...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Variability; Norway; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44052

Effects of Natural Shocks on Risk Behavior. Experimental Evidence from Cameroon
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Balgah,   Roland Azibo; Buchenrieder,   Gertrud.
Increasing occurrence of devastating natural shocks has stimulated research interest in the economics of natural disasters. Much of this scholarly work concentrates on effects of shocks on poverty, risk and vulnerability, and very little on understanding the effects of natural shocks on risk behavior. Referring to a 25 year-old disaster, we use unique survey data and experiment results from two disaster affected communities in rural Cameroon to test two hypotheses: (1) Natural shocks affect long term risk behavior; and (2) self-relocation into risk-prone areas is an explicit demonstration of risk taking. The results reveal differentiated risk behavior in self-relocated and state-resettled households, with the former taking higher risks compared to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Shocks; Risk behavior; Experiment; Cameroon; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114215

Does risk matter for farm businesses?  The effect of crop insurance on production and diversification.
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: O'Donoghue,   Erik J.; Key,   Nigel D.; Roberts,   Michael J.
We use a large increase in Federal crop insurance subsidies as a natural experiment to identify the impact of risk on acreage and diversification decisions.  Subsidy increases induced greater crop insurance coverage, which reduced farmers' financial risks.  Did this change in the risk environment alter production decisions?  We merged crop insurance participation data with farm-level Agricultural Census data from 1992 and 1997 to examine how harvested acreage and diversification changed in response to the policy-induced change in insurance coverage.  The difference in differences empirical approach controls for unobservable heterogeneity and our results are robust across multiple definitions of our key variables and various fixed effects.  We find that...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19397

RISK MANAGEMENT POTENTIAL OF PRECISION FARMING TECHNOLOGIES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lowenberg-DeBoer,   James.
Initial ideas on risk management uses of precision agricultural technology focused on site-specific treatment of problem areas to reduce the probability of low yields and returns. Recent discussions deal with sensor and remote-sensing information to improve marketing and "as applied maps" as trace-back mechanisms to manage liability. A theoretical model is presented that suggests that there are plausible circumstances under which precision farming can reduce temporal yield variability. Empirical evidence from an on-farm trial of site-specific P&amp;K management in the Eastern Cornbelt supports the hypothesis that precision farming can have risk-reducing benefits.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Food safety; GIS; GPS; Crop insurance; Marketing; Precision farming; Site specific management; Risk; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15366

NEW INSTRUMENTS FOR CO-ORDINATION AND RISK SHARING WITHIN THE CANADIAN BEEF INDUSTRY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Unterschultz,   James R.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Canadian beef industry has stated objectives of improving beef quality and consumer satisfaction while reducing unit costs of production.  Suggested methods for achieving these goals include working towards value based marketing and improved information flows between different market levels through systems such as a birth to plate information system.  These initiatives are designed to provide a more direct link between consumer product needs and breeding and management decisions at the farm level.  The industrialization of agriculture has introduced a number of changes to the structure of livestock production (Boehlje 1996); from vertical integration (arrangements such as packers feeding cattle) and forward contracting to increasing...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Industrial Organization; Risk and Uncertainty; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24046

Economic Feasibility of Commercial Algae Oil Production in the United States
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fischer,   Bart L.; Richardson,   James W.; Outlaw,   Joe L.; Allison,   Marc S.
A Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to analyze the economic feasibility of growing algae as a renewable fuel source.   Increasing growth rates, pond water depth, oil content, and facility size are important for ensuring the economic viability of a commercial algae facility.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Algae; Renewable; Fuel; Feedstock; Microalgae; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98834

Retroactive Liability and Future Risk: The Optimal Regulation of Underground Storage Tanks
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Boyd,   James; Kunreuther,   Howard.
The optimal design of environmental liability policy focuses on two primary policy issues: the cleanup of existing sources of pollution and the definition and enforcement of policies to promote prospectively efficient environmental risk reduction. Through the analysis of a policy toward a pervasive environmental risk -- leaking underground storage tanks - we analyze the effectiveness of an existing policy governing retroactive and prospective liability issues and suggest ways in which that policy can be improved. While we find some theoretical support for the public financing of UST cleanups, we also find the current system to be flawed in its implementation. In general, the paper argues that public financing of past pollution cleanup costs can lead to...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Liability; Underground storage tanks; Risk and Uncertainty; K13; Q28.
Ano: 1995
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10768

Agricultural Precautionary Wealth
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jensen,   Farrell E.; Pope,   Rulon D.
Using panel data, the relationship between income uncertainty and the stock of wealth through precautionary saving is examined. Evidence from Kansas data is consistent with the precautionary saving motive in that farm households facing greater uncertainty in income maintain larger stocks of wealth in order to smooth consumption. These results are found by regressing net worth against measures of permanent income (life-cycle income), measures of uncertainty, and demographic variables.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Precautionary saving; Precautionary wealth; Risk; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31146

Risk Management in the Farm Service Agency: An Assessment of 2008 Farm Bill Programs (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Karmen,   Bradley.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50593

Modeling Agricultural Risk, Risk Preferences and Perceptions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Guan,   Zhengfei; Wu,   Feng.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103801

Die Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheit und Flexibilität in der Investitionsplanung – dargestellt am Beispiel einer Vertragsinvestition für Roggen
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Musshoff,   Oliver; Hirschauer,   Norbert.
Investment decisions are, as a rule, characterized by uncertainty, irreversibility and flexibility. Simple net present value calculations will not account for these features. In many situations even flexible investment planning with decision trees, which represents the most advanced method of traditional investment appraisal, does not have the capacity to solve practical decision problems adequately. One handicap is a realistic and manageable representation of stochastic variables. It has long been known that stochastic simulation procedures offer a nearly unlimited capacity to represent distributions and stochastic processes. However, a standard simulation will not allow for the consideration of flexibility. The problem is that with a simple forward...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Investment; Uncertainty; Flexibility; Stochastic simulation; Dynamic programming; Sales contracts with fixed prices; Farm Management; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97437

How Risk Tolerance Changes with Age &amp; Life Events: Empirical Evidence using U.S. Panel Data (PowerPoint Presentation)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mandal,   Bidisha; Roe,   Brian E.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9378

Hidden action, risk aversion and variable fines in agri-environmental schemes
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ozanne,   Adam; White,   Benedict.
This note analyses the design of agri-environmental schemes for risk-averse producers whose input usage is only observable by costly monitoring. The scheme penalises producers in proportion to input use in excess of a quota. A striking result is that if the scheme is designed in such a way that producers always comply with the quota, risk aversion is not relevant in determining the level of input use.
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Agri-environmental policy; Monitoring; Risk aversion; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118539

Risk Management Strategies for Producer-Owned Peanut Shelling Cooperatives
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Byrne,   Robert J.; Smith,   Nathan B.; Fletcher,   Stanley M.; Barnett,   Barry J.
The 2002 Farm Bill altered the peanut program.  Peanut producers have indicated interest in a New Generation Shelling Cooperative (NGSC).  This study simulates inherent risks and potential risk management strategies for a NGSC.  These strategies are ranked using various metrics to understand their impact on risk and return.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35595

A Supply-Chain Analysis of Food Safety Standards Related to the Use of Wastewater for Irrigation of Crops
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lagerkvist,   Carl Johan; Johansson,   Helena; Birol,   Ekin; Roy,   Devesh; Narrod,   Clare A.
Irrigation with raw or diluted wastewater is a widespread phenomenon, occurring on 20 million hectares across the developing world, especially in Asian countries, but also in peri-urban areas around almost every city of sub-Saharan Africa and in many Latin American cities. Growing urban populations and consequent increases in demand for food and water has spurred the use of sewage to water crops as this is, in many cases, the only form of irrigation for farmers who either lack clean water or for whom clean water is too expensive. Wastewater has high nutrient value and constitutes a reliable source (Scott et al., 2004). It is mostly used to produce cash crops (e.g. vegetables and cereals). For example, it has been estimated that in most parts of Sub-...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59115

A Visual Approach to Community Bank Assessment of Agricultural Portfolio Risk Exposure
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pederson,   Glenn D.; Chu,   Yu-Szu; Richardson,   D. Wynn.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115673

Valuation of  Agricultural Weather Information Networks
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Al Hassan,   Mohammed; Mullen,   Jeffrey D.; Hoogenboom,   Gerrit.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Weather Information; Networks; Irrigation; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Production Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60910

Fire Management: Imbalanced and Misunderstood?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Moore,   Peter.
Rural fires occur from the edge of highly developed and urbanised land through to remote and inaccessible wilderness. Ignition sources are numerous and varied, and nearly always from people. Fire impacts range from catastrophic to beneficial. Fire is an integral and important component of most natural ecosystems, and efforts to eliminate it may be neither practicable nor desirable. Equally, unplanned fire is neither desirable nor welcome in areas such as agricultural lands. In order to have any success in ‘managing’ fire there must be a good understanding and knowledge of fire in the landscape being managed. To establish what is required for fire management it is necessary to consider and frame the factors systematically. I present the key identified areas...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124415

Risk, Uncertainty and Farm Management Decisions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Officer,   R.R.; Anderson,   Jock R.
The objective of this paper is to give a brief exposition of the decision criteria commonly propounded for decisions under risk and uncertainty. The review of these criteria in the context of farm management decisions reiterates the inappropriateness of all except the expected utility hypothesis, and it is concluded that utility analysis has considerable potential as an operational tool in farm management.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1968
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9109

The Economics of Annual Legume and Double Legume Cover Cropping in Southern Minnesota
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: McLellan,   Ashleigh; Carlberg,   Jared G.
Using historical data from crop producing farms in southern Manitoba, this study quantifies the economic savings that could be realized by using legumes to supply nitrogen in a cereal-oilseed based rotation. Stochastic budgets are developed for four alternative crop rotations and the returns associated with each are evaluated using the utility-based risk ranking methods of stochastic dominance and stochastic efficiency. It is found that including a legume cover crop in a cereal-oilseed based rotation can reduce the amount of nitrogen required by a subsequent crop and in turn increase the net returns associated with the complete crop rotation.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56561

Modeling Yield Risk Under Technological Change: Dynamic Yield Distributions and the U.S. Crop Insurance Program
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zhu,   Ying; Goodwin,   Barry K.; Ghosh,   Sujit K.
The objective of this study is to evaluate the risk associated with major agricultural commodity yields in the United States. We are particularly concerned with the nonstationary nature of the yield distribution, which arises primarily as a result of technological progress and changing environmental conditions over time. In contrast to common two-stage methods, we propose an alternative parametric model that allows the moments of yield distributions to change with time. Several model selection techniques suggest the proposed time-varying model outperforms more conventional models in terms of in-sample goodness-of-fit, out-of-sample predictive power, and the prediction accuracy of insurance premium rates.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Model comparison; Time-varying distribution; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/105549

The Impact of the E.coli Spinach Outbreak on Acreage Decisions Under Uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mohr,   Belinda Acuna.
This article quantifies the effect of the 2006 food-borne illness spinach outbreak on harvested acreage for the fresh spinach market.  In September 2006, fresh spinach contaminated with E. coli O157:H7 caused hundreds of consumer illnesses across the U.S. and a few deaths.  The outbreak was detrimental to the spinach industry causing a significant decrease in the demand for spinach.  Spinach growers were prohibited from harvesting spinach until more was known about the contamination.  According to the Census of Agriculture, harvested spinach acreage for the fresh market fell by 17% from before the outbreak.  Due to the unanticipated effects resulting from the outbreak, farms potentially decreased their acreage of fresh market spinach to reduce profit...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Production; Acreage; Uncertainty; Spinach outbreak; Food safety; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty; Q11; Q18.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103520

Comparing the Risk Attitudes of U.S. and German Farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Howard,   Gregory E.; Roe,   Brian E.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114528

JAAE Front page
Provedor de dados: 31
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; International Development; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120442

AGRICULTURAL INDEX INSURANCE PRODUCTS: STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Barnett,   Barry J.
Speech and PowerPoint Presentation
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32971

The Main Determinants of Insurance Purchase: An Empirical Study on Crop Insurance Policies in France
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Enjolras,   Geoffroy; Sentis,   P.
Using data for 2002-2005 on a representative survey of French farms (FADN-RICA), we investigate the different factors that lead farmers to insure against crop risk. Our analysis takes into account a mix of both standard individual, financial and agricultural criteria. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses as well as logistic regressions underline the main differences between insured and non-insured farms. Compared to non-insured farms, we find that insured farms present greater financial and agricultural sizes, a more diversified production and have been motivated by the occurrence of recent catastrophic climatic events. Although essential in the cross-sectional analysis, the influence of financial parameters in the decision to insure is mitigated. On...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Insurance; Demand; Crop insurance; Catastrophe risk; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44395

NEW CROP AND LIVESTOCK INSURANCE PROGRAMS (PowerPoint Presentation)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Davidson,   Ross J., Jr.
PowerPoint presentation
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33022

Competing Risk Proportional Hazard Models of Farm Service Agency Direct Operating Loans
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dixon,   Bruce L.; Ahrendsen,   Bruce L.; Foianini,   Monica; Hamm,   Sandra J.; Danforth,   Diana M.
The USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) direct farm loan program is designed to provide credit to family-sized farms unable to obtain credit from conventional sources at reasonable rates and terms despite having sufficient cash flow to repay and an ability to fully securitize the loan.  FSA policy encourages borrowers to exit the program as soon as possible.  This study uses Cox proportional hazard models in a competing risks framework to identify predictive factor of: (1) loan success or default, and (2) length of time to loan termination. Survey data from 1925 direct loans originated in federal fiscal years 1994-95 are used for analysis. Only data available to FSA at time of origination were collected. Since these data are all the information FSA has at time...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Duration; Farm Service Agency; Direct loans; Competing risks; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; C29; G28; Q12; Q14.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48140

The Role of Trust in Emerging Food Supply Network Relations
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fritz,   Melanie.
The food sector is the largest economic sector in the European Union (CIAA, 2005). It consists of a complex, global and dynamically changing network of trade streams, food supply network relations and related product flows (Fritz, Schiefer, 2008a). Food supply networks are subject to dynamically changing circumstances, which include fluctuations at primary production due to changes in weather or climate, impacting supply and demand and prices, and also impacting the quality of raw material, variations in food consumption due to seasonality or the westernization of diets in Asia (see e.g. OECD-FAO, 2006, Pingali, 2006), the development of alternative uses of raw material such as bio-fuel, and, not the least, from changing attitudes of society towards the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59178

Integrated Reservoir Management under Stochastic Conditions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Debnath,   Deepayan; Stoecker,   Arthur L.; Boyer,   Tracy A.; Sanders,   Larry D.
Water Management and Planning
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Economic optimization; Lake levels; Marketed and non-marketed water uses; Non-linear programming; Recreational benefits; Reservoir management; Stochastic inflows; Value of a visitor day; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Development; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Public Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108178

DO PRODUCER RISK ATTITUDES EFFECT THE SIZING OF ON-FARM HARVEST, DRYING, AND STORAGE SYSTEMS?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Davis,   Todd D.; Patrick,   George F.
An on-farm harvest, drying and storage system simulation model is used to determine how producers' risk attitudes effect combine and dryer capacity.  Stochastic dominance determines the risk efficient combine and dryer set for a 2000 acre farm in central Indiana.  Capacities decrease as risk aversion increases.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21640

Specialty crop producers' crop insurance decisions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: VanSickle,   John J.; Weldon,   Richard N.; Jung,   Jione.
Virtually all the studies reviewed examined the crop insurance participation decision of midwestern producers of corn, soybeans, or other feed grains. Such program crops also have price or income support programs, which make crop producers less vulnerable to risk. Therefore, the role and implication of crop insurance for program crops may be different from those for non-program crops including specialty crops. Consequently, the results from the studies for program crops may not be applicable to specialty crop cases. The objective of this study is to analyze factors affecting specialty crop producers’ uses of crop insurance as a risk management tool.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35621

A USER-ORIENTED MODEL FOR INCORPORATING RISK INTO SHORT-RUN DECISIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anderson,   Kim B.; Holt,   John.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1977
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30532

HEDGING CROP RISK WITH WEATHER INDEX AND INDIVIDUAL CROP INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hao,   Jianqiang; Kanakasabai,   Murali; Skees,   Jerry R.; Dillon,   Carl R.
This paper provides a theoretical analysis for the optimal portfolio of weather index and individual crop insurance in farm level under mean-variance framework and stresses the impacts of risk aversion level, transaction cost, and basis risk. An empirical application of corn farms in Todd county of Kentucky is applied to.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34796

Embedding a Field Experiment in Contingent Valuation to Measure Context-Dependent Risk Preferences: An Application to Wildfire Risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rollins,   Kimberly S.; Kobayashi,   Mimako.
This paper contributes towards the development of an approach that would generate welfare measures that accommodate non-expected utility risk preferences. Combining the merits of elicitation approaches used in field experiments with contingent valuation, we embed an experimental design that systematically varies probabilities and losses across a survey sample in a willingness to pay elicitation format, where a hypothetical situation is described that closely resembles the actual policy context. We apply the proposed elicitation and estimation approaches to estimate the risk preferences of a representative homeowner who faces probabilistic wildfire risks and an investment option that reduces losses due to wildfire. Based on prospect theory, we estimate...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61870

ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF RISK IN COMMODITY SUPPLY MODELS: AN ANALYSIS OF SOW FARROWING DECISIONS IN THE UNITED STATES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Holt,   Matthew T.; Moschini,   GianCarlo.
The role of price risk in sow farrowings is investigated by using bivariate ARCH-M and GARCH-M models and a nonparametric kernel estimator. To account for the relevant time horizon of irreversible supply decisions, predictions for mean price and conditional price variance are iterated forward. The empirical results vary markedly in terms of their implications for risk response in hog supply decisions, with the ARCH-M and GARCH-M models suggesting a small and negative risk effect. Estimates of the marginal risk premium also indicate moderate and variable departures from marginal cost pricing in sow farrowing supply decisions.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1992
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30737

Risk Preferences and Voluntary Agri-environmental Schemes: Does Risk Aversion Explain the Uptake of the Rural Environment Protection Scheme?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vollenweider,   Xavier; Di Falco,   Salvatore; O'Donoghue,   Cathal.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115552

VOLUNTARY ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK TRADEOFFS IN CROP PROTECTION DECISIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lohr,   Luanne; Park,   Timothy A.; Wetzstein,   Michael E.
An indirect utility model is employed for measuring farmers willingness to voluntarily accept yield losses for a reduction in environmental risk by decreasing pesticide use.  Results support the hypothesis that farmers have self-described risk perceptions that enable them to make assessments of risk-yield tradeoffs.  Policies designed to encourage and assist farmers making voluntary pesticide reductions can result in environmental risk reduction.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Pesticides. regulation; Environmental policy; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1997
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16654

Natural Disasters and Agriculture: Individual Risk Preference towards Flooding
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sauer,   Johannes.
This study contributes to the understanding of behavioural responses to climate change induced extreme weather events. It suggest a microeconometric method for measuring flooding related risk preferences of affected individuals. The method is outlined using the empirical case of agricultural production in floodplains of the UK over 28 years. A quasi-experimental approach to measure differences in the risk attitudes of farmers located in high flooding risk areas versus farmers located in low flooding risk areas is followed. Changes in flooding risk related behaviour over time is analysed and marginal effects of different individual and disaster related characteristics for this behaviour are investigated. Beside a moments based risk estimation approach the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Extreme Events; Risk; Agriculture; Natural Experiments; Behavioural Adaptation; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115989

Building Trust with Organic Food: The Case of Organic Eggs
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Declerck,   Francis; Fourcadet,   Olivier.
Many consumers do not understand the significance of the Organic labels. The EFSA and the USDA makes no claim that organically produced food is safer or “healthier.” or more nutritious than conventionally produced food. Consumers will still need to read nutrition labels and make wise selections to maintain an overall healthy diet. “Organic” food does not mean “natural”. Only food labelled “organic” designate that the product meets the new EU or USDA organic standards. In Europe and elsewhere, food products’ Quality Labels (QL) have appeared in the early 1960s and their number has been increasing since then. QL are publicly owned, like “Organic Label” or privately owned, like “Carrefour Bio” brands which signal a “quality” difference from other products
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59179

Crop insurance market development in a transition economy: The case of Kazakhstan
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Heidelbach,   Olaf; Bokusheva,   Raushan.
We analyze the current state and future requirements of an agricultural income stabilization mechanism in a transition country – namely, the crop insurance system in Kazakhstan. Three objectives will be pursued: First, factors influencing the development of the crop insurance market will be identified. Second, insurance’s capabilities to efficiently stabilize income under transition circumstances will be evaluated. Finally, recommendations for developing crop insurance as an effective income stabilization tool will be provided. Results indicate that the prevailing institutional framework for establishing a sustainable crop insurance system is rather weak, and available insurance products are not preventing the problem of asymmetric information to a...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk-management; Crop insurance; Institutions; Mathematical programming; Kazakhstan; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; D82; G22; Q14.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51614

Local Food Marketing as a Development Opportunity for Small UK Agri-Food Businesses
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hingley,   Martin; Boone,   Julie; Haley,   Simon.
Local Food Marketing as a Development Opportunity for Small UK Agri-Food Businesses
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Local food; Marketing; Small-business development; UK; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97022

MANAGING PRICE RISK:   CONVENTIONAL METHODS IN UNCONVENTIIONAL TIMES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gulke,   Jerry.
Paper and PowerPoint Presentation
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32803

EVALUATION OF RISK REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MULTI-PERIOL CROP INSURANCE PRODUCTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Schnitkey,   Gary D.; Sherrick,   Bruce J.; Irwin,   Scott H.
This research examines risk-return tradeoffs across a full range of crop insurance products and coverage levels.  Results indicate that farm-level products reduce risk for low probability events, but that risk reductions often are not large for events that occur with more regularity.  Risk reductions vary with yield variability; with counties that have higher yield variability also experiencing greater risk reductions through the use of crop insurance.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19778

Risk Rationing in China Rural Credit Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Khantachavana,   Sivalai V.; Turvey,   Calum G.; Kong,   Rong.
The purpose of this paper is to provide a specific test of Boucher, Carter et al. (2008) framework on risk rationing. The data were collected through a survey of 730 farm households in Shaanxi province conducted in November 2010. We compare factor associated with risk rationed, quantity rationed and price rationed farmers. Seemingly unrelated regressions are performed using risk rationing, quantity rationing and price rationing measure as the dependent variable and measures of demography, wealth, income, year of farming and risk aversion as independent variables. We apply seemingly unrelated regression, cluster analysis and cross tabulation in the study. According to a seemingly unrelated regression, we find existing risk rationing is due to risk-based...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk rationing; Credit market; China; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104021

Alternative Hedging Strategies in Maize Production to Cope with Climate Variability and Change
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fuhrer,   Jurg; Beniston,   Martin; Calanca,   Pierluigi; Torriani,   Daniele Simone.
Climate change with increasing climate variability is likely to alter risks in agricultural production. The effectiveness of using weather derivatives to hedge against drought risks for rain-fed grain maize production was investigated for current (1981-2003) and future (2070- 2100) climates in Switzerland. The climate change scenario was extrapolated from results of a regional climate model (HIRHAM4) based on the IPCC A2 emission scenario. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed by varying the mean and variance of the initial probability space for the seasonal precipitation sum. Profits and risks with and without hedging were compared using the analogy of the value-at-risk measure (VaR), i.e., a quantile-based measure of risk. A Monte Carlo chain...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Climatic change; Climate risks; Drought; Maize production; Weather derivatives; Hedging; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9275

RISK ANALYSIS FOR PROPRIETORS WITH LIMITED LIABILITY: A MEAN- VARIANCE, SAFETY- FIRST SYNTHESIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Collins,   Robert A.; Gbur,   Edward E.
Since nearly the entire U.S. output of agricultural commodities is produced by proprietors with limited liability, it is important to understand how limited liability affects decision in a risky environment. This article extends the work of Robinson and Barry; Robinson and Lev; and Robinson, Barry, and Burghart. It provides a rigorous derivation of one of their objective functions, compares it to standard risk analysis tools, and suggests several methods of empirical implementation. Under some conditions, utility maximization in the limited liability environment is consistent with optimization of Roy's safety-first criterion, while in other situations Freund's mean-variance criterion is appropriate. However, it is easy to demonstrate cases where neither...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1991
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32617

Political Precaution, Pandemics and Protectionism
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kerr,   William A.
Despite strong scientific evidence and representations made by international scientific organizations, a considerable number of countries have imposed import bans on pork in response to the H1N1 pandemic. The imposition of these barriers is contrary to WTO rules. The motivation for the imposition of these barriers does not appear to have arisen from producers’ requests or consumer lobbying – political precaution provides the motivation. There appears to be little control over political precaution in the rules of international trade. Hence, the balance between the strong rules of trade desired by firms wishing to engage in international commerce and the need, at times, for politicians to respond to requests for protection may be changing in favour of more...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: H1N1; Import bans; Pork; Precaution; Protection; Swine; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Health Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries; Political Economy; Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52231

Valuing Transgenic Cotton Technologies Using a Risk/Return Framework
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bryant,   Kelly J.; Reeves,   Jeanne M.; Nichols,   Robert L.; Greene,   Jeremy K.; Tingle,   Christopher H.; Studebaker,   Glenn E.; Bourland,   Fred M.; Capps,   Charles D.; Groves,   Frank E.
Stochastic Efficiency with Respect to a Function (SERF) is used to rank transgenic cotton technology groups and place an upper and lower bound on their value. Yield and production data from replicated plot experiments are used to build cumulative distribution functions of returns for nontransgenic, Roundup Ready, Bollgard, and stacked gene cotton cultivars. Analysis of Arkansas data indicated that the stacked gene and Roundup Ready technologies would be preferred by a large number of risk neutral and risk averse producers as long as the costs of the technology and seed are below the lower bounds calculated in this manuscript.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Cotton; Financial risk; Market value; SERF; Transgenic; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q16.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/47257

FORWARD CONTRACTING VERSUS HEDGING UNDER PRICE AND YIELD UNCERTAINTY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Miller,   Stephen E.
Although apparently preferred by farmers to direct hedging as a forward pricing mechanism, forward contracting has received little attention in the literature dealing with optimal forward pricing levels. An often-cited reason for producer preference for forward contracting is the absence of basis risks under that forward pricing alternative. This paper presents models of optimal forward contracting and hedging under price and yield uncertainty within a mean-variance framework. The results indicate that basis certainty does not explain preferences for forward contracting.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1986
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29790

RISK AND PROBABILITY PREMIUMS FOR CARA UTILITY FUNCTIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Babcock,   Bruce A.; Choi,   E. Kwan; Feinerman,   Eli.
The risk premium and the probability premium are used to determine appropriate coefficients of absolute risk aversion under CARA utility. A defensible range of risk aversion coefficients is defined by the coefficients that correspond to risk premiums falling between 1 and 99% of the amount at risk or to probability premiums falling between .005 and .49 for a lottery that pays or loses a given sum. The consequences of ignoring risk premiums when selecting risk-aversion coefficients for representative decision makers are illustrated by calculation of the implied risk premium associated with the levels of absolute risk aversion assumed in six selected studies.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1993
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30810

Resultados economicos y riesgo en los citricos de la Comunidad Valenciana
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: el Kamel,   Helmi Ahmed; Garcia Alvarez-Coque,   Jose-Maria.
SUMMARY: The purpose of this paper is to outline and adapt Sharpe's model to the agricultural activities as well as to measure the performance of crops when yield and risk are considered. The model is applied to the main varieties of citrus fruits in Valencia. For them, systematic and specific risks are measured and the yield índex elasticities are quantified. Applying performance rates, we determine the economic yields of citrus varieties in the 1985-1997 period. In the same way, we focus on its management based on the previously outlines criteria.  Key Words: Risk, performance, crops programming  RESUMEN: En este trabajo se presenta el modelo de Sharpe adaptado al campo de la producción agraria así como los métodos de medida de los resultados económicos...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk; Performance; Crops programming; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q00; R3.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28785

THE EFFECTS OF RISK ON FARMLAND VALUES AND RETURNS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Katchova,   Ani L.; Sherrick,   Bruce J.; Barry,   Peter J.
The effect of risk on farmland values and returns is analyzed using a capitalization model.  County-level models are estimated using spatial econometric techniques.  Our results show that riskier regions and growing conditions have both lower land values and higher risk-adjusted rates of return to farmland.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19660

A BAYESIAN FRAMEWORK FOR OPTIMAL INPUT ALLOCATION WITH AN UNCERTAIN STOCHASTIC PRODUCTION FUNCTION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Griffiths,   William E.
A Bayesian approach is used to provide a framework for optimal input allocation for a stochastic production function with uncertain parameters. The chosen production function is a single-input version of a function which can exhibit positive or negative marginal risk. The sensitivity of optimal input allocation to the degree of risk aversion, the marginal risk parameter, and the assumed level of uncertainty about the parameters is examined. Using an example problem it is shown that parameter uncertainty will not always lead to a lower input level when a producer is risk averse. Some problems with the production function specification are uncovered, as is the incompatibility of some expected utility and stochastic assumptions.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1986
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22898

Rankings of Risk Management Strategies Combining Crop Insurance Products and Marketing Positions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hart,   Chad E.; Babcock,   Bruce A.
Farmers can choose from a wide selection of crop insurance products and marketing strategies. Combinations of these risk management tools have varying effects on the user's risk environment. Nine risk management strategies are ranked for their impacts on average returns, certainty equivalent returns, and risk premiums. The analysis is conducted using historical price and yield data for 1976 to 1999 in five Iowa counties. The results show the benefits of crop insurance in reducing revenue risk. Also, given that the producer will forward contract some of his or her crop, the combination of E-Markets' Decision Rules for Contracts (DRC) pricing tool and Crop Revenue Coverage (CRC) crop insurance receives the highest ranking.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18586

Hedging von Mengenrisiken in der Landwirtschaft – Wie teuer dürfen „ineffektive“ Wetterderivate sein?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Musshoff,   Oliver; Hirschauer,   Norbert.
Since the mid-nineties, agricultural economists discuss the suitability of “weather derivatives” as hedging instruments for volumetric risks in agriculture. Contrary to traditional insurance contracts, the payoffs of such derivatives are linked to weather indices (e.g. accumulated rainfall or temperature over a certain period) that are measured objectively at a defined meteorological station. While weather derivatives thus circumvent the problem of moral hazard and adverse selection, weather derivative markets for the agricultural sector are still in their infancy all-over the world. Some economists attribute this to theoretical valuation problems and the lack of a pricing method which is accepted by all market participants. Others think that the low...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Weather derivatives; Rainfall risk; Willingness-to-pay; Portfolio optimization; Hedging of volumetric risk; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97605

The Impact of Media Coverage on Proposed Strategies for Preventing Future Food Scandals
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bohm,   Justus; Schulze,   Holger; Kleinschmit,   Daniela; Spiller,   Achim; Nowak,   Beate.
At the beginning of the year 2005 the German meat industry frequently featured in the media with reports on tainted meat. Since then, a huge number of new problems concerning meat production and trade have arisen which have uncovered weaknesses in food quality control, and highlighted the explosive nature of this subject matter. It is unclear what effect the media involvement has had on the political process of regulatory decision-making in the food industry, and to what extent it has influenced this process. The following article examines these issues with regard to the presentation of food safety scandals in the media, as the role of press coverage will continue to increase in importance in the coming years. This research is based on the content analysis...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Media Analysis; Political Decision Making; Media Effects; Tainted Meat; Content Analysis; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Political Economy; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59190

Quantifying the Contributions to Dairy Farm Business Risk: Implications for Producer's Risk Management Strategies
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Schmit,   Todd M.; Chang,   Hung-Hao; Boisvert,   Richard N.; Tauer,   Loren W.
The major sources of variability in net farm income on New York dairy farms over the past 10 years are identified using Dairy Farm Business Summary records. The most important source of income variability is the fluctuation in milk prices, followed closely by year-to-year variation in the quantity of purchased feeds. These results suggest that forward pricing of milk and feed purchases may be effective risk reduction strategies. Since a few farms have large cull cow sales, probably due to disease or other production problems, new insurance products to insure against disease may be useful to dairy farmers. It appears that older farmers are more successful in engaging in activities that increase diversification and reduce the variability in reductions in...
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121879

Evaluation of Crop Insurance Yield Guarantees and Producer Welfare with Upward Trending Yields
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Adhikari,   Shyam; Knight,   Thomas O.; Belasco,   Eric J.
Actual Production History (APH) yields play a critical role in determining the coverage offered to producers by the Risk Management Agency’s (RMA) Yield Protection, Revenue Protection, and Revenue Protection-Harvest Price Exclusion crop insurance products. The RMA currently uses the simple average of from 4 to 10 years of historical yields to determine the APH yield guarantee. If crop yields are trending upward, use of a simple average of historical yields introduces bias into the insurance offering.  Using both county and individual insured unit data, we examine the producer impact of APH yield trends for Texas cotton and Illinois corn. Our findings indicate that biases due to using simple average APH yields when yields are trending upward reduce the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Actual Production History; Crop Insurance; Yield Trend; Yield Guarantee; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98855

Group versus Individual Preferences for Risk: An Experimental Analysis of the Effect of Group Composition
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Brady,   Michael P.; Roe,   Brian E.; Wu,   Steven Y.
Greater attention has been paid to understanding differences between individual and group decision-making in economics in recent years.  While great strides have been made in understanding the relative cognitive ability of each, differences in preferences are less well understood.  This study examined preferences for risk individually and in groups of two.  Results show that a majority of groups act according to the preferences of one of the two pair members.  This is not a result emphasized in previous social psychology research on groups.  Thus, we propose a new explanation of group decision making based on strength of preference.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21056

PERCEPTIONS OF RISKS AND RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES; AN ANALYSIS OF DUTCH LIVESTOCK FARMERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Meuwissen,   Miranda P.M.; Huirne,   Ruud B.M.; Hardaker,   J. Brian.
The risk environment of farmers is changing and new risk management strategies are being introduced. Beal (1996) stated that risk management strategies adopted by farmers will be in accordance with their personal preferences for risk. In this context it would be useful for developers and sellers of new risk management strategies to have insight into farmers' preferences for risk. This paper studies to what extent such preferences are farmer-specific or whether general relationships exist. By means of a large questionnaire survey among 2700 livestock farmers in the Netherlands we gathered data on four groups of variables, i.e. socioeconomic characteristics of the farm, farmers' attitudes towards risk, their perceptions of sources of risk, and their...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Perception; Sources of risk; Risk management strategies; Attitude towards risk; Questionnaire survey; Livestock farming; The Netherlands; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21507

Project vs. Balance Sheet Financing: Can Securities Match Risk?  Inovative Financing for Rural America (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Monson,   Richard S.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45858

RISK ATTITUDES AND FARM/PRODUCER ATTRIBUTES: A CASE STUDY OF TEXAS COASTAL BEND GRAIN SORGHUM PRODUCERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramaratnam,   S. Sri; Rister,   M. Edward; Bessler,   David A.; Novak,   James L.
An analysis of risk attitudes for a sample of grain sorghum producers in the Texas Coastal Bend is reported. Four alternative functional forms were estimated on data elicited by the direct elicitation of utility approach. The exponential functional form described most producers' utility preferences better than other utility forms. Relationships between exponential risk measures and both producer attributes and farm characteristics, including interactions among them, were identified as significant. Risk aversion was found to diminish with more experience in farming and to increase with more leasing of farm land. Risk aversion was also found to decline with larger farm size and to increase with higher dependency of farm operators on farm income.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1986
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29768

Parmalat
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dobson,   William D.
This Discussion Paper describes developments affecting Parmalat of Italy, once one of the world's leading dairy-food firms, which filed for bankruptcy protection in December 2003. After the bankruptcy, it was discovered that fraud on a massive scale had occurred at Parmalat, putting the firm in the infamous category occupied by Enron, Tyco International, and WorldCom. This paper analyzes the origins, growth, strategies, downfall, and restructuring of Parmalat, and identifies implications for the U.S. and world dairy industries and international businesses that flow from the firm's experiences.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Parmalat; Fraud; Bankruptcy; Distribution Channels; Brand Proliferation; Fragmented Industries; Debt Aquisition; Agricultural Finance; Demand and Price Analysis; Financial Economics; Industrial Organization; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37555

(Anti-) Coordination in Networks
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kovarik,   Jaromir; Mengel,   Friederike; Romero,   Jose Gabriel.
We study (anti-) coordination problems in networks in a laboratory experiment. Partici- pants interact with their neighbours in a fixed network to play a bilateral (anti-) coordination game. Our main treatment variable is the extent to which players are heterogeneous in the number of connections (neighbors) they have. Other network characteristics are held constant across treatments. We find the following results. Heterogeneity in the number of connections dramatically improves the rate of successful coordination. In addition, even though there is a multiplicity of Nash equilibria theoretically, a very sharp selection is observed empirically: the most connected player can impose her preferred Nash equilibrium almost always and observed Nash equilibria are...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Game Theory; Networks; Coordination Problems; Experiments; Risk and Uncertainty; C72; C90; C91; D85.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61370

Wie viel bringt eine verbesserte Produktionsprogrammplanung auf der Grundlage einer systematischen Auswertung empirischer Zeitreihen? – Die Bedeutung von Prognosemodellen bei der Optimierung unter Unsicherheit
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Musshoff,   Oliver; Hirschauer,   Norbert.
In this paper we examine whether there is room for improvement in farm program decisions through the integration of formal mathematical optimisation into the planning process. Probing the potential for improvement, we investigate the cases of four Brandenburg cash crop farms over the last six years. We find that their total gross margins could have been increased significantly through a more sophisticated program planning. However, we also find that the superiority of formalised planning approaches depends on the quality of the data. The superior formal planning approach includes, in contrast to farmers’ ad hoc planning, a systematic time series analysis of gross margins and a stochastic optimisation model. For each of the six years, the formal planning...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Planning of the production program; Optimisation; Uncertainty; Static distributions; Stochastic processes; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97196

AN ANALYSIS OF LENDERS' INFLUENCE ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCERS' RISK MANAGEMENT DECISIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Knight,   Thomas O.; Lovell,   Ashley C.; Rister,   M. Edward; Coble,   Keith H.
Agricultural lenders have a stake in and are in a position to influence their borrowers' management decisions. Risk management practice adoption is an area in which lenders might want to exercise this influence. This study employs logistic statistical models to estimate lenders' influence on crop producers' decisions regarding use of three alternative risk management practices: federal multiple-peril crop insurance, crop hail and fire insurance, and forward contracting. Results suggest lenders can exert significant influence on these decisions but that poor communication between lenders and borrowers likely reduces this influence.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1989
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30092

Evaluation of Risk Management Methods for Satsuma Mandarin
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lindsey,   Jeanne K.; Duffy,   Patricia A.; Nelson,   Robert G.; Ebel,   Robert C.; Dozier,   William A.
Simulation of production budgets were used to compare net discounted returns and the distribution of returns under alternative risk-mitigation scenarios.  Results indicate that the combination of freeze protection and crop insurance increases expected net discounted 20-year returns while decreasing the downside risk.  Break-even prices ranged from $.257 to $.289 per pound.  Crop insurance returns were constant across price.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Satsuma oranges; Freeze protection; Crop insurance; Production budget; Simulation; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; C63; D81; Q12.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46754

The Southern Region Risk Management Education Center (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Stokes,   Kenneth W.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Research; Research opportunities; Research support; Risk and Uncertainty; D80.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48982

The Budgetary and Resource Allocation Effects of Revenue Assurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hennessy,   David A.; Babcock,   Bruce A.; Hayes,   Dermot J.
The efficiency of redistribution and the level of government costs of revenue assurance are compared with current farm programs.  The results suggest that a revenue assurance program that uses a fixed base acreage and actual or county average yields to assure whole farm revenues could provide a significant improvement over existing policies.  The result derives in large part because revenue assurance works only when needed and it works on the component of the objective function (revenue) that is of greatest relevance to producers.  Also a fixed base revenue assurance scheme would eliminate resource misallocation costs associated with current programs.  A revenue assurance scheme that guaranteed 100 percent of base revenues would provide almost as much...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1995
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18519

DIMENSÕES E PERSPECTIVAS DO SEGURO RURAL: O CASO BRASILEIRO E ALGUMAS EXPERIÊNCIAS INTERNACIONAIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vieira Junior,   Pedro Abel; Buainain,   Antonio Marcio; Madi,   Maria Alejandra Caporale; Vieira,   Adriana Carvalho Pinto; Ojima,   Andrea Leda Ramos De Oliveira; Souza,   Raquel Pereira; Silveira,   Jose Maria Ferreira Jardim Da.
O seguro rural é um dos mais importantes instrumentos para o desenvolvimento do setor agrícola, pois, ao permitir proteção ao produtor rural contra efeitos adversos de eventos ambientais e do mercado torna-se indispensável à estabilidade da renda, à geração de emprego e ao desenvolvimento tecnológico. No setor agrícola, além do risco de mercado, existem diversas outras fontes que a tornam uma atividade eminentemente arriscada. A principal delas se refere ao fato de que a atividade agrícola é altamente dependente de condições ambientais de difícil controle pelo homem de modo que as variáveis climáticas e sua interação com fatores bióticos podem influenciar sobremaneira o resultado final da safra. A realidade histórica mostra que o seguro agrícola permite ao...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Seguro rural; Risco agrícola; Política agrícola; Agro-insurance; Agricultural risk; Agricultural policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/109437

Whither Aquaculture R&amp;D? Results from a Delphi Study
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Stricker,   Susanne; Guettler,   Stefan; Mueller,   Rolf A.E.; Schulz,   Carsten.
In the summer of the year 2008 a worldwide online Delphi study on the future of R&amp;D in aquaculture was conducted. The Delphi method is widely used to survey experts on the anticipated developments within a specific domain. We employ this method to ascertain the likely future directions of aquaculture research in developed, high-income countries. For the convenience of our respondents we conducted the survey on the web. Results of the survey show that aquaculture experts agree that aquaculture research in general has made substantial achievements and will continue to make even more achievements in the future and also aquaculture research achievements will have very large impact on the productivity of the aquaculture farm as well as on the quality of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59187

Weighted Goal Programming and Penalty Functions: Whole-farm Planning Approach Under Risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zgajnar,   Jaka; Kavcic,   Stane.
The paper presents multiple criteria approach to deal with risk in farmer’s decisions. Decision making process is organised in a framework of spreadsheet tool. It is supported by deterministic and stochastic mathematical programming techniques applying optimisation concept. Decision making process is conceptually divided into seven autonomous modules that are mutually linked up. Beside the common maximisation of expected income through linear programming it enables also reconstruction of current production practice. Income risk modelling is based on portfolio theory resting on expected value, variance (E,V) paradigm. Modules dealing with risk are therefore supported with quadratic and constrained quadratic programming. Non-parametric approach is utilised...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Goal programming; Risk modelling; Risk aversion; Production planning; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118033

Risk Management in Agriculture: What Role for Governments?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anton,   Jesus.
Plenary presentation from 123rd EAAE Seminar, 23-24 February, Dublin, Ireland
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122774

The Demand for Specialty-Crop Insurance: Adverse Selection and Moral  Hazard
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Richards,   Timothy J.; Mischen,   Pamela.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1997
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35847

Default and Inference Options: Use in Recurrent and Ordinary Risk Decisions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wilson,   James D.
How "default options" should be used in health risk assessment divides the risk analysis profession. Some argue that these should be "hard": set by policy, generally biased to be "health protective" and requiring a substantial body of evidence to replace by decision-specific alternatives. Others argue that they should be science-based, identified by consensus of the professional community, replaced by whatever decision-specific information may be available to the analyst. This paper shows that both positions have validity, and that both are incomplete. Each kind of construct has a useful role to play, but in different kinds of decisions. Because the two are different, we suggest giving them different names, "default option" being assigned to the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk; Regulation; Decision making; Default options; EPA; FDA; Science; Policy; Public participation; Risk analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10712

THE AGRICULTURAL RISK MANAGEMENT SIMULATOR MICROCOMPUTER PROGRAM
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: King,   Robert P.; Black,   J. Roy; Benson,   Fred J.; Pavkov,   Patti A.
The Agricultural Risk Management Simulator (ARMS) is a microcomputer program designed to help users evaluate strategies for managing yield and price risk in crop farming operations.  Risk management strategies are defined by choices regarding crop mix, the purchase of multiple peril crop insurance, and the use of forward contracting.  Probabilistic budgeting is used to determine the net cash flow probability distribution for each strategy considered.  Flexibility with regard to both sources of probabilistic information and the form of yield and price probability distributions is a noteworthy feature of the program.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1988
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29259

STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT IN A TURBULENT BUSINESS CLIMATE: CONCEPTS AND METHODS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Boehlje,   Michael.
The accelerating speed of change in the food and agribusiness industries is resulting in more risk and uncertainty – the future is becoming much less predictable.  Not only is the future more uncertain, the drivers of that uncertainty are also changing – strategic risk which generally has a low probability of occurrence, but large consequences, is becoming an increasingly important component of the decision environment   Managing these risks requires not only new assessment tools such as scorecarding and mapping, but also more systematic decision frameworks that can be best structured as decision trees.  And managing time to redefine a strategic choice in an uncertain environment into a growth, divest, exit, pause or follow-on option that truncates the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28632

POTENTIAL ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL-INDEXED INSURANCE IN ROMANIA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hou,   Jiang; Skees,   Jerry R.; Veeramani,   Venkat N.
One of the key factors affecting the crop output is the rainfall volume. For this reason, insurance plans based on the rainfall deviation of the mean have been advanced. This paper provides prospects of rainfall-indexed insurance in Romania considering the tradeoff between moral hazard and basis risks. The reasonability of rainfall-indexed insurance will be judged first. The basic parameters will then be determined and the effectiveness will be measured. Finally, microfinance programs combined with indexed insurance will be advanced to deal with the basis risk problems, which also are the goals for further study
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20158

STOCHASTIC WEALTH DYNAMICS AND RISK MANAGEMENT AMONG A POOR POPULATION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lybbert,   Travis J.; Barrett,   Christopher B.; Desta,   Solomon; Coppock,   D. Layne.
The literature on economic growth and development has focused considerable attention on questions of risk management and the possibility of multiple equilibria associated with poverty traps. We use herd history data collected among pastoralists in southern Ethiopia to study stochastic wealth dynamics among a very poor population.  These data yield several novel findings.  Although covariate rainfall shocks plainly matter, household-specific factors, including own herd size, account for most observed variability in wealth dynamics.  Despite longstanding conventional wisdom about common property grazing lands, we find no statistical support for the tragedy of the commons hypothesis. It appears that past studies may have conflated costly self-insurance with...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Common property; Covariate risk; Ethiopia; Idiosyncratic risk; Poverty traps; Social insurance; Risk and Uncertainty; O1; Q12.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14736

The Role of Trust and Risk Aversion in Farmers' Used Machinery Transactions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Roe,   Brian E.; Batte,   Marvin T.; Diekmann,   Florian.
Results of a nationally representative survey of US farmers link previously validated survey measures of risk aversion and interpersonal trust to farmers’ intended use of online venues for transacting used equipment.  Other factors affecting online purchase propensity includes the quality of farmers’ relationships with local equipment dealerships.  Understanding the factors that impact farmers’ use of internet market venues is crucial as rural internet penetration deepens, farm equipment needs grow more specialized and local offline markets thin.  These results may also help explain past observations of severe discounting of used farm equipment sold in online venues.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Internet; Agricultural marketing; Durable inputs; Survey; Risk aversion; Trust; Agribusiness; Industrial Organization; Marketing; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty; D8; L15; L64; Q12.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60972

Volatility Surface and Skewness in Live Cattle Futures Price Distributions with Application to North American BSE Announcements
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Thomsen,   Michael R.; McKenzie,   Andrew M.; Power,   Gabriel J.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Options markets; Live cattle; Volatility; Pricing density function; Financial Economics; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49354

Risk-Increasing and Risk-Reducing Practices in Human Resource Management: Focus Group Discussions with Livestock Managers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bitsch,   Vera; Olynk,   Nicole J.
Historically, managers in livestock production have focused on production management; however, as operations have grown they have spent more time managing employees. Increased time spent overseeing employees brings additional risks and challenges, and, hence, a greater need for human resource management (HRM) skills. This study investigated HRM practices in pork production and analyzed their risk attributes through six focus group discussions with managers. Results were compared to existing data from four dairy focus groups and to other research. The results have been used to develop and adapt educational workshops for managers in pork production.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Focus group research method; Labor management; Personnel management; Qualitative research; Risk management; Risk perception; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; B49; M12; M50; M52; M53; M54; M59; Q12; Q19.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45518

THE DEMAND FOR DOMESTICALLY PRODUCED SAWN TIMBER: AN APPLICATION OF THE DIEWERT COST FUNCTION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Doran,   Howard E.; Williams,   David F.
The Australian demand for domestically-produced sawn timber is investigated by considering its major use - as an input into residential construction. Using a cost function approach, a system of equations is derived expressing quantities demanded in terms of relative prices. Cross-price elasticities are estimated and the falling input-output ratio of timber in residential construction is analysed by decomposing the change in this ratio into price, outputs and taste/technology effects. A major finding is that, while substitution of timber for other inputs has been encouraged through relative price movements, this effect has been more than offset by taste and technology trends away from timber usage.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1982
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22608

Intensifying agricultural sustainability: An analysis of impacts and drivers in the development of ‘bright spots’
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Noble,   Andrew D.; Bossio,   Deborah A.; Penning de Vries,   Frits W.T.; Pretty,   Jules N.; Thiyagarajan,   T.M.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Food security; Farming systems; Sustainable agriculture; Productivity; Investment; Thailand; Palestine; Latin America; Africa; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91818

How can allocative inefficiency reveal risk preference? An empirical investigation on French wheat farms
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Blancard,   Stephane; Boussemart,   Jean-Philippe; Crainich,   D.; Leleu,   Herve.
We focus on a simple framework on wheat producer behaviour in a context of price output uncertainty. More precisely, we establish a relationship between ex post output price level and allocative inefficiency that allows to characterize farmers’ risk preferences. Given this analysis, the connection between risk aversion and other socioeconomic variables (such as degree of output specialisation, total asset, debts, farmer’s age…) can furthermore empirically be explored. This relationship is empirically tested on an unbalanced panel including about 650 wheat producers located in the French Department of Meuse over 1992- 2003.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Producer behaviour; Allocative inefficiency; Risk aversion; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44208

Modelling yield risk measures of major crop plants
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kobus,   Pawel.
The paper deals with the problem of modelling yield risk measures for major crop plants in Poland. Hence, in some cases the gamma distribution offers a better fit to the data than normal distribution, and in addition to linear models, generalized linear models were also used. The research was based on data from Polish FADN, with sample sizes ranging from 416 up to 2300, depending on the crop plant. It was found that models based on the farm level data, can explain on average 20% of variation coefficient unevenness. The most important variables were average yield, type of farming, arable area and land quality. The elimination of the average yield from the models reduced the average determination coefficient to about 9%.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Production risk; Risk measures; Yield distribution; Risk and Uncertainty; Q10; C46.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122535

IMPACT OF RISK AVERSE BEHAVIOR ON FERTILIZER DEMAND FOR TAME FORAGES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shumway,   C. Richard; Gebremeskel,   Tesfaye.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1978
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30256

Crop Insurance, Disaster Payments and Land Use Change: The Effect of Sodsaver on Incentives for Grassland Conversion
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Claassen,   Roger; Cooper,   Joseph C.; Carriazo,   Fernando.
Subsidized crop insurance may encourage conversion of native grassland to cropland. The Sodsaver provision of the 2008 farm bill could deny crop insurance on converted land in the Prairie Pothole states for 5 years. Supplemental Revenue Assistance payments, which are linked to crop insurance purchases, could also be withheld. Using representative farms, we estimate that Sodsaver would reduce expected crop revenue by up to 8% and expected net return by up to 20%, while increasing the standard deviation of revenue by as much as 6% of market revenue. Analysis based on elasticities from the literature suggests that Sodsaver would reduce grassland conversion by 9% or less.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Bootstrap; Crop insurance; Grassland; Joint densities; Sodsaver; Supplemental Revenue Assistance; Agricultural and Food Policy; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q2.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104623

MANAGING PRICE RISK IN COTTON PRODUCTION USING STRATEGIC ROLLOVER HEDGING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Turner,   Steven C.; Heboyan,   Vahe.
Research on rollover hedging for agricultural commodities has focused on the consequences of using existing contracts to substitute for missing long-term contracts. It appears that some grains are candidates for rollover hedging while livestock is not. Cotton was analyzed to evaluate the effectiveness of rollover hedging from 1982 to 1999. This paper demonstrates that strategic rollover hedging can be used as a substitute for missing long-term futures market and increase expected returns in cotton production.  The estimated results reported average returns of 62.22, 65.36, 75.80, 79.09, and 69.14 cents per pound for cash sale, single-year hedge, 5, 2.5, and 1% three-year strategic rollover hedging strategies, respectively. Thus, it appears returns for...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16708

Income insurance as a risk management tool after 2013 CAP reforms?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Meuwissen,   Miranda P.M.; Van Asseldonk,   Marcel A.P.M.; Pietola,   Kyosti; Hardaker,   J. Brian; Huirne,   Ruud B.M.
The ecosystem and the economic subsystem are interlinked. In fact, it is the overconsumption of scarce resources or the overproduction of bad outputs at economic system level that causes a great part of the imbalances at the ecosystem level. Some imbalances do not originate at the economic system level, but are due to external factors. Given the possibility of external shocks, respecting static sustainability thresholds is not a guarantee for system sustainability. In a dynamic setting, the concept of resilience is therefore helpful. In this paper we show how this concept can complement the traditional efficiency approach to come to a sustainable value creating economic system.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Income volatility; Income insurance; Expert elicitation; Price insurance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114649

Capturing Uncertainties in Evaluation of Biofuels Feedstocks: A Multi-Criteria Approach for the US
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ziolkowska,   Jadwiga; Simon,   Leo K.; Zilberman,   David.
Current research evaluating biofuels policies focuses primarily on market-economic criteria. While it is widely acknowledged that both the economic and environmental, and social aspects of biofuels policy must all be balanced with each other in the process of developing a viable biofuels policy, little progress has been made to date on evaluating these uncertain non-market relationships. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy theory holistic approach evaluating the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd generation biofuels feedstocks in meeting multiple economic, environmental and social criteria of the biofuels policies and capturing the uncertainties of evaluation processes. We use a multi-criteria approach PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Uncertainties; Multi-criteria decision support; PROMETHE; Fuzzy set theory; Decision making; Policy evaluation; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115980

Risk management on application of minimum-cost feed ration for nitrogen and phosphorus reduction on dairy farm
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Salim,   Juma K.; Dillon,   Carl R.; McAllister,   Jack.
The traditional mathematical programming model with the objective function of feed ration cost minimization is used to accommodate risk management responses to price variability associated with feeding a particular feed ration over time. The model incorporated biophysical simulation data using Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System (CNCPS) software in addressing nutrient requirements and excretions. In addition, it used historic feedstuff prices in a mean-variance (E-V) framework analysis. The optimized seasonal feeding indicated to have a lower mean ration cost and lowest nutrient loading followed by optimized uniform feeding program. The feed cost optimization proved to be a better strategy in minimizing ration cost and reducing excretions both...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21274

The Social Discount Rate under Intertemporal Risk Aversion and Ambiguity
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Traeger,   Christian P.
The social discount rate crucially determines optimal mitigation policies. This paper examines two shortcomings of the recent debate and the models on climate change assessment. First, removing an implicit assumption of (intertemporal) risk neutrality reduces the growth effect in social discounting and significantly amplifies the importance of risk and correlation. Second, debate and models largely overlook the difference in attitude with respect to risk and with respect to non-risk uncertainty. The paper derives the resulting changes of the risk-free and the stochastic social discount rate and points out the importance of even thin tailed uncertainty for climate change evaluation.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Ambiguity; Discounting; Expected utility; Intertemporal substitutability; Intertemporal risk aversion; Recursive utility; Risk aversion; Social discount rate; Uncertainty; Political Economy; Risk and Uncertainty; D61; D81; D90; H43; Q00; Q54.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55785

INSURANCE PLANS TO STABILIZE FARM INCOMES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Robinson,   Kenneth L.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1954
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/17401

Agricultural Risk Management - Experiences from an Action Research Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lund,   Mogens; Oksen,   Arne; Larsen,   Torben Ulf; Andersen,   Henning.
A new model for risk management in agriculture is described in the paper. The risk model is constructed as a context dependent process, which includes four main phases. The model is aimed at agricultural advisors, who wish to facilitate and disseminate risk management to farmers. It is developed and tested by an action research approach in an attempt to make risk management more applicable on family farms. Our obtained experiences indicate that farmers don't apply probabilistic thinking and other concepts according to formal decision theory.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk management; Consulting; Action research; Farm families; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24291

A Utilização da BM&amp;F como Instrumento de Gerenciamento de Risco de Preço de Boi Gordo Comercializado em Rondônia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: de Zen,   Sergio; Bellotti de Melo,   Guilherme.
This paper aimed to analyse the BM&amp;F cattle future market as a tool for price risk management for traders that deal cattle in the Rondônia State. In order to reach this goal it was analysed if there is a long-term relationship between the cattle prices in Rondônia and the Esalq/BM&amp;F Cattle Index. Besides that, it was done an examination of the optimal hedge Rio Branco – Acre, 20 a 23 de julho de 2008 Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administração e Sociologia Rural ratio and its effectiveness to the year of 2007. The results indicated that the cattle price in Rondônia and the Esalq/BM&amp;F Cattle Index has a long-term relationship, which means the traders can use the BM&amp;F as tool to hedge the cattle price in such state. However, through the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Cattle Prices; Risk; Future Market; Rondônia; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96279

Optimal Preservation of Agricultural and Environmental Land within a Municipality Under Irreversibility and Uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Howard,   Peter H.
Replaced with revised version of paper 07/22/11.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Irreversibility; Spatial-temporal modeling; Value of information; Policy design; Climate change; Agricultural preservation; Environmental conservation; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Political Economy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103639

Acreage Decision under Price &amp; Yield Uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lee,   Young-Jae; Kennedy,   P. Lynn; Brian,   Hilbun.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Crop Production/Industries; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103334

RAINFALL INSURANCE FOR MIDWEST CROP PRODUCTION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vedenov,   Dmitry V.; Miranda,   Mario J.
The paper discusses a methodology for design and pricing of index insurance contracts for crop production. The methodology heavily relies on establishing a relationship between the index and yields in order to evaluate the contract performance in hedging farmers' risk. However, analysis of yield/rainfall data series for Iowa corn and Kansas wheat fail to produce a reliable and meaningful relationship which can be used uniformly across several counties and/or crop producing districts. Further research is needed as to applicability of rainfall insurance to specific crop/region combinations.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20458

An economic evaluation of a crop insurance programme for small-scale commercial farmers in South Africa
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nieuwoudt,   W. Lieb.
Hail insurance is provided by the private sector in South Africa but crop insurance (drought insurance) programmes, after a promising start, failed to attract customers. A crop insurance programme (drought) for small-scale commercial farmers, who are not yet paying tax, has been recommended to government. The purpose in this research is to study the economic viability of such a programme drawing on the US experience. The US programme is well developed but heavily subsidised. During 1998 US growers paid $900 million in premiums while during 1995- 98 the US government spent $1.2 billion per year on subsidies. An area insurance plan (farmers are insured as a group) is shown to be more appropriate for small farmers growing dryland field crops such as maize...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54238

The Structure and Economic Impact of R&amp;D Organisation in New Zealand
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Johnson,   Robin.
R&amp;D spending in New Zealand is a mixture of private and public investment undertaken to improve productive activity and efficiency. Investment is split fairly equally between private business, government organisations and the universities. It is a long term investment with some uncertainty about outcomes being achieved. It is predominantly a public good investment as most government organisations and universities are providers of R&amp;D but not users of it and hence there is a discontinuity in the connection between investment and results. Furthurmore, the supply of R&amp;D has properties of a free good which lead to users looking for new applications on a wider and wider front (spillovers). For these reasons R&amp;D is generally regarded as a `good...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Investment; R&amp;D Expenditure; Social Benefits; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98521

CROP INSURANCE VALUATION UNDER ALTERNATIVE YIELD DISTRIBUTIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zanini,   Fabio C.; Sherrick,   Bruce J.; Schnitkey,   Gary D.; Irwin,   Scott H.
Considerable disagreement exists about the most appropriate characterization of farm-level yield distributions. Yet, the economic importance of alternate yield distribution specifications on insurance valuation, product designs and farm-level risk management has not been investigated or documented. The results of this study demonstrate that large differences in expected payments from popular crop insurance products can arise solely from the parameterization chosen to represent yields. The results suggest that the frequently unexamined yield distribution specification may lead to incorrect conclusions in important areas of insurance and risk management research such as policy rating, and assessment of expected payments from policies.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18953

DO HOUSEHOLDS FULLY SHARE RISK? EVIDENCE FROM GHANA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Doss,   Cheryl R.
Intrahousehold analyses provide new insights into how households make economic decisions.  Much of the work in economics has traditionally treated the household as a single economic actor, but a number of studies are providing evidence that the dynamics among household members affect the outcomes of household economic decisions. This paper contributes to our understanding of such models by incorporating the variability of individual incomes into the analysis of intrahousehold resource allocations, using detailed household survey data from Ghana.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Consumer/Household Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1996
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/13439

Global Warming, Endogenous Risk and Irreversibility
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fisher,   Anthony C.; Narain,   Urvashi.
This paper develops two-period analytical and numerical models to study the question: given a stock of greenhouse gases that poses a risk of future damages of unknown magnitude, and the possibility of learning about damages, how do sunk abatement capital and a nondegradable stock of greenhouse gases affect optimal first-period investment?  We show that both affect investment, the former negatively and the latter positively.  Additionally, endogenous risk--the risk of damages dependent on the stock of gases-- results in an increase in optimal investment for any level of capital "sunkness" or greenhouse gas degradability.  Quantitatively, though, the effect of sunk capital is much stronger than the effect of greenhouse gas irreversibility or that of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25107

Theorizing "Producer-led" versus "Investor led" Dairy Cooperatives: A Regulationist Perspective
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Enright,   Patrick; Bowler,   Ian.
Agricultural producer cooperatives, especially dairy cooperatives, have been dominant in the agri-food sector, especially in Northern Europe. Recently there has been significant concentration and internationalization amongst dairy cooperatives as many have been transformed into large international growth orientated organizations. In this article, the development of dairy cooperatives in Ireland and Denmark is explored from a regulationist perspective. In particular, the Mode of Social Regulation (MSR) is explored using empirical evidence from the Irish and Danish processing industries. Marden’s (1992) understanding of the MSR – based on five interrelated elements (monetary and credit relationships, the type of competition, the wage-labor relation, the mode...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44670

Economic Benefits of Crop-Hail Reduction Efforts in North Dakota
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Johnson,   Jerome E.; Coon,   Randal C.; Enz,   John W.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1989
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23388

Producer Heterogeneity in Crop Insurance Product Decisions within Major Corn Producing States (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Adhikari,   Shyam; Belasco,   Eric J.; Knight,   Thomas O.
PowerPoint presentation
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Risk; Decision-making; Risk and Uncertainty; D81.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48902

The effect of agricultural policy change on income risk in Swiss agriculture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: El Benni,   Nadja; Finger,   Robert; Mann,   Stefan.
The study examines the effect of agricultural policy reforms on income variability of Swiss farmers. The observed heterogeneity in income risks across farms and time is explained with farm and regional characteristics. FADN data are used to construct coefficients of variation of total household income and gross revenues at farm-level over the period 1992-2009. Applying linear mixed effect models the effects of off-farm income, direct payments, farm size, specialisation and liquidity on gross revenue and household income variability in three different production regions are measured. The switch from market-based support to direct payments decreased the variability of farm revenues and household income. Off-farm income has a positive and farm size a negative...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Income risk; Agricultural policy; Direct payments; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q14; Q18.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122532

Criteria for optimal production under uncertainty. The state-contingent approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rasmussen,   Svend.
The state-contingent approach to production economics presented by Chambers and Quiggin provides a new basis for deriving optimality criteria for production under uncertainty. In the present paper criteria are formally derived for risk-averse producers. It is not possible to derive useful criteria for strictly risk-averse producers, but useful criteria for risk-neutral producers are presented for three different types of input. Based on a formal definition of ‘good’ and ‘bad’ states of nature, the use of inputs and levels of production of strictly risk-averse producers are compared to those of risk-neutral producers. Depending on the type of input, risk-averse producers may use more or less input than risk-neutral producers.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118157

Variance Risk Premiums and Predictive Power of Alternative Forward Variances in the Corn Market
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wang,   Zhiguang; Fausti,   Scott W.; Qasmi,   Bashir A.
We propose a fear index for corn using the variance swap rate synthesized from out-of-the-money call and put options as a measure of implied variance. Previous studies estimate implied variance based on Black (1976) model or forecast variance using the GARCH models. Our implied variance approach, based on variance swap rate, is model independent. We compute the daily 60-day variance risk premiums based on the difference between the realized variance and implied variance for the period from 1987 to 2009. We find negative and time-varying variance risk premiums in the corn market. Our results contrast with Egelkraut, Garcia, and Sherrick (2007), but are in line with the findings of Simon (2002). We conclude that our synthesized implied variance contains...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Variance Risk Premium; Variance Swap; Model-free Variance; Implied Variance; Realized Variance; Corn VIX; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13; Q14; G13; G14.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61683

Determinants of Participation in a Catastrophe Insurance Programme: Empirical Evidence from a Developing Country
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Akter,   Sonia; Brouwer,   Roy; Chowdhury,   Saria; Aziz,   Salina.
The paper presents empirical evidence of the determinants of catastrophe insurance participation in one of the poorest and most disaster prone countries in the world. In a large-scale household survey carried out in 2006 we ask 3,000 residents in six different districts in Bangladesh facing various environmental risk exposure levels about their willingness to participate in a catastrophe insurance programme. Combining factors put forward in risk theory and economics, we estimate a model of insurance participation. We show that the household decision to participate in the insurance programme differs depending on both exogenous and endogenous risk exposure levels. As predicted by micro-economic theory, ability to pay, measured in terms of household income...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Natural disasters; Catastrophe; Insurance; Participation; Risk; Bangladesh; Consumer/Household Economics; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Development; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/5984

Leaving land fallow: The case of subsistence farming in the Western Balkans
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sauer,   Johannes; Davidova,   Sophia; Latruffe,   Laure.
The key question of this paper is why farmers in Kosovo leave land fallow when the total land of their farms is rather small and households are rather large. In order to elicit some barriers to land utilisation in Kosovo, the paper is based on a comprehensive survey investigating agricultural households’ perceptions of production and market conditions, and employs several households and farm characteristics to empirically approximate the significance of different factors for leaving land fallow and not using it for production purposes. Three different models have been estimated. All estimated model specifications show a statistical significance at a satisfactory level and no severe signs of misspecification. One of the main factors farmers stated for their...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Fallow land decision; Kosovo; Tobit regression; Fractional response regression; Zero-inflated binomial regression; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53278

Risk Management Practices for Specialty Crop Producers in Florida
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Weldon,   Richard N.; VanSickle,   John J.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15708

CONSIDERATIONS IN THE INTRODUCTION OF CROP INSURANCE TO RICE SECTOR IN KOREA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lee,   Kwan Yong.
Agricultural production depends much on uncontrollable weather conditions, which often threatens farmers' livelihoods.  Weather risks are especially important for farmers in developing countries where they are still cultivating with conventional methods and less well developed irrigation and drainage systems and equipment.  Moreover, seasonality and cyclicality hinder growth of agricultural sectors and make farm households' incomes unstable. Two measures for dealing with such problems in the agricultural sector include 1)   Governmental price intervention and the expansion of farming bases, and 2)  the establishment of governmentally run agricultural disaster insurance.  As stated later, even though government plays a major role in an agricultural...
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1982
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11069

Cooperative Risk Management: Rationale and Effectiveness
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Manfredo,   Mark R.; Richards,   Timothy J.
Agricultural cooperatives tend to be riskier than investor-oriented firms, both in a business and financial sense. However, cooperative managers are often reluctant to actively manage risk.  Although the “risk management irrelevance proposition” suggests that cooperative managers should be unable to add shareholder value through risk management activities, this study argues that there are several reasons why this is not likely to be the case for cooperatives. Several empirical examples are provided through numerical simulation of pro-forma financial statements from representative agricultural cooperatives. Using mean variance, expected utility and value-at-risk metrics, the results of these simulations show that various risk management strategies can...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Cooperative; Expected utility; Futures; Option; Risk management; Value at risk.; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28540

Modeling and Hedging Rain Risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Musshoff,   Oliver; Odening,   Martin; Xu,   Wei.
In this article we price a precipitation option based on empirical weather data from Germany using different pricing methods, among them Burn Analysis, Index Value Simulation and Daily Simulation. For that purpose we develop a daily precipitation model. Moreover, a de-correlation analysis is proposed to assess the spatial basis risk that is inherent to rainfall derivatives. The models are applied to precipitation data in Brandenburg, Germany. Based on simplifying assumptions of the production function, we quantify and compare the risk exposure of grain producers with and without rainfall insurance. It turns out that a considerable risk remains with producers who are remotely located from the weather station. Another finding is that significant differences...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21050

The Role of Consumer Acceptance in the Food Innovation Process: Young Consumer Perception of Functional Food in Italy
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Del Giudice,   Teresa; Nebbia,   Stefano; Pascucci,   Stefano.
In this article we analysed the role of acceptance of a new food within innovation processes in the Italian food sector. Our analysis focused on preferences and the opinions expressed by three distinct groups of young consumers in relation to functional foods (FFs). Such products represent an innovation both in terms of technology and commerce for Italian food companies, and the segment of young consumers would appear especially interested in them. Our results showed that a different cultural education, hence the degree of knowledge cumulated by young consumers, is a key element in the preference for, and perception of FFs. This implies the need to identify highly differentiated marketing strategies for firms seeking to reach this segment of FF demand in...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59112

Zur Bewertung von Wetterderivaten als innovative Risikomanagementinstrumente in der Landwirtschaft
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Musshoff,   Oliver; Odening,   Martin; Xu,   Wei.
The importance of weather as a production factor in agriculture is well established long time and a significant portion of yield fluctuations is caused by weather risks. Traditionally, farmers have tried to hedge against unfavorable weather using insurance, such as crop insurance. In recent years a new class of instruments, so called weather derivatives, have emerged. They allows to reduce weather based risks as well. Weather derivatives are financial market products such as forwards, futures, options and swaps, that have a weather component such as temperature or rainfall. Although weather derivatives have some advantages compared to traditional insurance, their trading volume is still rather small. One reason (among others) for why potential users...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Weather derivatives; Option pricing; Actuarial methods; Financial methods; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97216

A szőlő rügyfakadási idejének becslése
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hlaszny,   Edit; Ladanyi,   Marta.
Aszőlő rügyfakadási időpontjának modellezése és előrejelzése növényvédelmi és gazdasági szempontból nélkülözhetetlen lépés a szőlőtermelésben. Tanulmányunkat öt fehérborszőlő-fajta (Chardonnay, Rajnai rizling, Hárslevelű, Pinot blanc és Szürkebarát), valamint ezek klónfajtáinak 2000 és 2004 között felvételezett adataival végeztük. Az ültetvények a Duna borrégión belül, a Kunsági borvidékhez tartozó Helvécián találhatóak. Számításainkhoz egy olyan matematikai modellt állítottunk fel, mely kis hibával megbecsüli a várható rügyfakadás napját. Amodell az általánosan használt kumulált hőösszegszámításon alapul, az optimalizálást pedig a becsült időpontok napokban számított hibájára végeztük. Az optimális bázishőmérsékletet 6 °C-ban állapítottuk meg. Amodell...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Rügyfakadás; Tenyészidő effektív hőösszege; Vitis vinifera L.; Opening of buds; Effective accumulated temperatureover the growing season; Vitis vinifera L.; Crop Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99196

Effects of Insurance on Farmer Crop Abandonment
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chen,   Shu-Ling; Miranda,   Mario J.
Empirical evidence for the existence of moral hazard in the U.S. crop insurance program has been inconclusive.  Here, we seek empirical evidence of moral hazard in the U.S. crop insurance program, departing from the established empirical literature in two significant respects.  First, we attempt to uncover evidence of moral hazard by examining the effects of crop insurance on post-planting crop abandonment decisions.  Second, we expand to the scope of existing empirical studies by including regions and crops that have historically experienced high loss ratios under the Federal crop insurance program.  Our results provide strong evidence that insurance participation encourages producers to abandon their crops during the growing season for corn in Central...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9846

Idiosyncratic shocks, risk management and welfare dynamics in rural Ghana
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Naschold,   Felix; Walker,   Thomas F.; Barrett,   Christopher B.; Osei,   Robert.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: International Development; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/109646

Dynamic and stochastic analysis of environmental and natural resources
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tsur,   Yacov; Zemel,   Amos.
Uncertainty enters the dynamic tradeoffs of environmental and natural resource management in a variety of ways and forms. In this chapter we review the various sources of uncertainty, the methodologies developed to account for them and implications regarding management of environmental and natural resources.
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Resource management; Environmental policy; Uncertainty; Catastrophic events; Irreversibility.; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120017

AN ANALYSIS OF THE RISK AVERSION OF FARM OPERATORS:  AN ASSET PORTFOLIO APPROACH
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lins,   David A.; Gabriel,   Stephen C.; Sonka,   Steven T.
The absolute and relative risk aversion characteristics of a large sample of farm operators were estimated from the observed portfolio responses to changes in wealth.  Regression estimates suggest that farm operators display decreasing absolute risk aversion.  Relative risk aversion varies by type of farm.  However, the definition of risky assets has an important bearing on relative risk aversion characteristics.  Non-wealth variables are also important in explaining the holding of risky assets by farm operators.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1981
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32078

Farmers' Subjective Yield Distributions:  Calibration and Implications for Crop Insurance Valuation
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Umarov,   Alisher; Sherrick,   Bruce J.
This paper examines the role of overconfidence in explaining farmer crop insurance purchasing decisions. The authors hypothesize that overconfidence could influence the participation decision and test this hypothesis. The preliminary results indicate that farmers are overconfident; however, the relationship between overconfidence and the insurance use remains uncertain.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19396

Producers' Yield and Yield Risk: Perceptions versus Reality and  Crop Insurance Use
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Egelkraut,   Thorsten M.; Garcia,   Philip; Pennings,   Joost M.E.; Sherrick,   Bruce J.
Using survey data from 258 Illinois corn farmers, we investigate the relationship between subjective and objective yield measures and their effect on the use of crop insurance.  Our findings show that producers view themselves as better than average with respect to yields and in terms of their variability, and that over- and underconfidence also influence their use of crop insurance.  The effects are not symmetric, overconfidence is primarily reflected in the larger-than-average yield, while underconfidence emerges mainly in the larger-than-average variability.  Crop insurance use is further affected by risk preferences and county yield variability.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21369

Dynamic Econometric Models of Manitoba Crop Production and Hypothetical Production Impacts for CAIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Coyle,   Barry T.; Wei,   Ran; Rude,   James.
This study analyzes the impact of the Canadian Agriculture Income Stabilization (CAIS)program. The study begins with a specification of dynamic crop production that decomposes static short run crop acreage allocation decisions and dynamic crop yield affects. The modelling framework accommodates risk aversion, price uncertainty, and applies recent aggregation theory to aggregate weather data. Using this framework an analytical model of the impacts of CAIS on crop production is developed. Hypothetical impacts of are simulated using an aggregate Manitoba data set. The results show that CAIS has a substantial impact on the shadow prices of both inputs and outputs. These shadow price effects resulted in a 4 percent increase in long run wheat and barley yields...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Canada; CAIS; Risk; Crop; Production; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46630

An Economic Analysis of Replacing Existing Bermudagrass Stands with Tifton 85 Bermudagrass for Beef Cow-Calf, Stocker and Hay Production
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lacy,   R. Curt; Hill,   Gary M.
Comparisons of simulated NPV for Coastal and Tifton 85 bermuda-grass using experimental data, current input prices and historical hay and feeder cattle prices indicates that many producers would benefit by adopting this new cultivar. Cow-calf producers would benefit the most followed by stocker/replacement heifer producers and finally hay producers. When risk-aversion is introduced into the model, all cow-calf and stocker producers regardless of the level of risk-aversion should consider adopting T85. Moderately or extremely risk-averse hay producers would consider adopting T85, while those that are slightly risk-averse would be indifferent.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6739

Cooperative and Area Yield Insurance: A Theoretical Analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pincheira,   Pablo; Zeuli,   Kimberly A.
The purpose of this paper it to theoretically investigate the potential benefits that arise from a cooperative selling a government subsidized area-yield contract (i.e., the Group Risk Plan).  The indemnities in area-yield contracts are triggered by a geographically determined yield (e.g, a country-wide yield average) instead of the more conventional individual actual production history.  Therefore, an area-yield contract would be appropriate for managing the cooperative's systemic throughput risk.  The cooperative would also capture some of the substantial government subsidies that are normally given to a private insurance company.  Our primary finding is that farmers should be indifferent when considering the decisions to purchase area-yield insurance...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty; Agribusiness.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31822

Actuarial evaluation of the EU proposed farm income stabilisation tool
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pigeon,   Mathieu; Frahan,   Bruno Henry de; Denuit,   Michel.
Recently, the European Commission proposed to introduce several risk management tools in the rural development pillar 2 of the CAP. One of them consists in providing co-financing support to mutual funds compensating farmers who experience a severe drop in their farm income. This paper analyses this new farm income stabilization tool for the Walloon region in Belgium, considering separately three groups of farms (crop, dairy and cattle farms). Relying on FADN data from 1997 to 2007, this analysis focuses on estimating the probability that such regional mutual funds would need to intervene to compensate farm net incomes and, in that case, the expected amount of each farm income compensation and the total expected amount of compensation. The budgetary...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural risk management; Income stabilisation; Belgium; European Union; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122485

Credit Risk Assessment and Racial Minority Lending at the Farm Service Agency
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Escalante,   Cesar L.; Brooks,   Rodney L.; Epperson,   James E.; Stegelin,   Forrest E.
The nature of credit risk assessment and basis of loan approval decisions of the Farm Service Agency are analyzed in the aftermath of the black farmers’ 1997 class action suit against the U.S. Department of Agriculture.  This study did not uncover convincing evidence of racial discrimination against nonwhite borrowers under a binomial logistic framework based on the probability of a loan application’s approval.  Moreover, the collective use of more stringent and objective credit-scoring measures usually employed by commercial lenders is less evident in the Farm Service Agency’s evaluation of loan applications.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Binomial logistic regression; Credit risk; Credit-scoring model; Direct lending; Farm Service Agency; Guaranteed lending; Racial bias; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; G20; G21; G28; Q10; Q14.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43749

Performance of agriculture insurance schemes in India
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bhise,   Vinayak B.; Ambhore,   Shivaji S.; Jagdale,   Suryakant H.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9245

Effects of Private Insurance on Forest Landowners' Incentives to Sequester and Trade Carbon under Uncertainty: Impact of Hurricanes
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Grover,   Mansi; Bosch,   Darrell J.; Preisley,   Stephen P.
We evaluate incentives of forest landowners for sequestering and trading carbon, given the risk of carbon loss from hurricanes, and an opportunity to insure their losses. Results of simulation model reveal that the effect of hurricane risk depends on the variability of returns from carbon and timber and landowners' ability to mitigate risk by diversifying forest holdings across regions or transferring risk by purchasing insurance.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Carbon Sequestration; Emissions Trading; Natural Disaster; Risk; Insurance; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54; Q58.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19516

THE RELATION BETWEEN FARM PRODUCTION RISK AND OFF-FARM INCOME
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kyle,   Steven C.
This paper presents a model of the farm labor allocation decision based on risk and return characteristics of different activities.  It is shown that off-farm employment can play an important role in the diversification of farm family income, implying that portfolio models of risk and return to farm activities should take into account the possibility of off-farm employment.  A model of the labor allocation decision based on the risk and return characteristics of each activity is developed and tested using a state level cross section of the United States over the post-war period, and performs well in explaining variation in reliance on off-farm income.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Labor and Human Capital; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1993
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31553

Climate Effects on Rainfall Index Insurance Purchase Decisions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Novak,   James L.; Nadolnyak,   Denis A.
Rainfall Index (RI) insurance provides forage and hay producers with group risk protection against drought related losses. However, insurance premiums and risk protection are currently based on pooled weather data series and do not account for the impacts of specific climate phases, specifically the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), on local rainfall distribution. This analysis examines differences in the expected payoffs on the RI insurance under varying coverage levels based on probabilities of rainfall shortage during specific climate events at four Agricultural Experiment Stations in Alabama. Policy makers and producers are expected to benefit from the results that show the varying effects of climate on expected payouts from this insurance.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96368

Risk and the Farm Firm: A Corporate Finance View
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Johnson,   R.W.M.
Recent applications of risk analysis in corporate finance to farm firm decision making are reviewed in this paper. The inclusion of risk parameters modifies some of the traditional agricultural economics views on investment, financing and the portfolio choice problem. A clearer view emerges of farm investment behaviour. Further topics for research are identified. In the author's view, the corporate finance analysis provides a more coherent set of paradigms that explain actual farm investment and financing decision making m a more satisfactory way than previously available.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1992
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12498

Drought Risk and Drought Response in Morocco: Vulnerability, Risk Perceptions and Drought Coping Among Rainfed Cereal Farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lybbert,   Travis J.; Kusunose,   Yoko; Magnan,   Nicholas; Fadlaoui,   Abdelaziz.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Drought; Coping; Vulnerability; Risk; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Food Security and Poverty; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49367

Tipping Points and Ambiguity in the Economics of Climate Change
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lemoine,   Derek M.; Traeger,   Christian P.
Replaced with revised version of paper Feb 13, 2012 available at http://purl.umn.edu/120349
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Threshold; Climate; Integrated assessment; Regime shift; Ambiguity; Uncertainty; Dynamic programming; Social cost of carbon; Tipping point; Carbon tax; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54; D90; D81.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98127

Discourses of Implementing Information Systems in Corporate Merger: A Case Study from the Food Exporting Industry
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Alm,   Kristian; Engelseth,   Per; Karlsen,   Anniken.
In 2007 five different industrial food producers merged to become one single firm. This paper places focus on the challenge these actors had in deciding on, implementing, and using an information system to support mainly their raw material purchasing and finished product sales function. Studies show that a large part of information system implementation failures are related to insufficient alignment between various aspects or parts of an organization and the new technology (Miller 2001, Wognum 2004). A report of a working group from The Royal Academy of Engineering and The British Computer Society concerning the challenges of complex IT project (RAEng, 2004) supports this view stating that the most pressing problems are related to the human aspect of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59189

Fragile Social Norms: (un) Sustainable Exploration of Forest Products
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zylbersztajn,   Decio.
The exhaustion of natural resources is a central problem in the international agenda. The particular case of Amazon forest is at the top on the international environmental discussion. Two related problems are keys to be considered in the discussion of sustainable development in this region. First the predatory use of the natural resources of the forest mainly timber and genetic resources. Second the recognition of the existence of a population of around 20 million inhabitants in the region defined as “Legal Amazon Area”, aiming the improvement on the living conditions, enhancement of income level and acceleration of development. How to match both objectives is a puzzle faced by the present generation. The region is populated by initiatives of international...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty; Q01; Q56; D23.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59117

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CROP INSURANCE ON FARM ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shaik,   Saleem; Atwood,   Joseph A.
The objective of this paper is to examine the potential impacts of crop insurance on farm economic structure using Nebraska county level data from 1980-1998.  Using a profit function we fit input demand and output supply equations accounting for insurance premiums and indemnities to examine the economic impacts of crop insurance
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20666

RECONSIDERATIONS ON RISK DEDUCTIONS IN PUBLIC PROJECT APPRAISAL
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anderson,   Jock R.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1989
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22587

Risk and the Economic Incentive to Retain Ownership of Steer Calves
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fausti,   Scott W.; Johnson,   Brad; Epperson,   William; Grathwohl,   Nancy.
Retained ownership of steer calves is an investment decision for cow/calf producers.  Data collected over a three-year period on 845 steer calves reveals that retaining ownership of steer calves is, on average, profitable. Systematic and unsystematic risks associated with retaining ownership of steer calves are identified.  Empirical results indicate that unsystematic risk account for 67% of the variability in the rate of return to retained ownership in this study.   For seventy-five producers who entered weaned calves into a university sponsored ranch to rail program, the empirical evidence suggests that retaining ownership is a riskier investment decision than ascertained in the earlier literature.  We conclude that the lack of enthusiasm for retaining...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32023

IMPACT OF THE APF-BUSINESS RISK MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS ON ONTARIO AGRICULTURE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Martin,   Larry J.; Mussell,   Al.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18115

Revenue instability induced by conservation rate structures : an empirical investigation of coping strategies
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chesnutt,   Thomas; Bamezai,   Anil; Hanemann,   W. Michael.
Water suppliers have been adopting new rate structures to promote conservation. The shift away from rates based on historical average cost toward rates based on marginal cost has been motivated by the desire to send consumers the "right" price signal about the need to conserve drinking water. The shift toward conservation rate structures, though perhaps providing better incentives to use scarce water resources wisely, has predictable effects-it changes who pays what and it increases the variability of future revenue streams to the water agency. Though the definition of the "correct" rate structure can rightfully vary in different communities-depending on the marginal cost of new supplies or avoided demand and on the community's understanding of equity-the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Public Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1993
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6104

A Safety Valve for Emissions Trading
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Stranlund,   John K.
This paper considers the optimal design of an emissions trading program that includes a safety valve tax that allows pollution sources to escape the emissions cap imposed by the aggregate supply of emissions permits. I demonstrate that an optimal hybrid emissions trading/emissions tax policy involves a permit supply that is strictly less than under a pure emissions trading scheme and a safety valve tax that exceeds the optimal pure emissions tax as long as expected marginal damage is an increasing function. While the expected level of emissions under a hybrid policy may be more or less than under pure emissions trading or a pure emissions tax, under the assumption that uncertainty about aggregate marginal abatement costs is symmetric the most likely...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Emissions Taxes; Emissions Trading; Uncertainty; Safety Valve; Hybrid Emissions Control; Environmental Economics and Policy; Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; L51; Q28.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53125

Modeling and Pricing Rain Risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Musshoff,   Oliver; Odening,   Martin; Xu,   Wei.
In this paper we price a precipitation option based on empirical weather data from Germany using different pricing methods, among them Burn Analysis, Index Value Simulation and Daily Simulation. For that purpose we develop a daily precipitation model. Moreover, a decorrelation analysis is proposed to assess the spatial basis risk that is inherent to rainfall derivatives. The models are applied to precipitation data in Brandenburg, Germany. Based on simplifying assumptions of the production function, we quantify and compare the risk exposure of grain producers with and without rainfall insurance. It turns out that a considerable risk remains with producers who are remotely located from the weather station. Another finding is that significant differences may...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Weather risk; Weather derivatives; Precipitation model; Basis risk; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; C8; Q14; Q54.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25386

Interpersonal, Intertemporal and Spatial Variation in Risk Perceptions: Evidence from East Africa
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Doss,   Cheryl R.; McPeak,   John G.; Barrett,   Christopher B.
This study investigates variation over time, space and household and individual characteristics in how people perceive different risks. Using original data from the arid and semi-arid lands of east Africa, we explore which risks concern individuals and how they assess their relative level of concern about these identified risks.  Because these assessments were gathered for multiple time periods, sites, households and individuals within households, we are able to identify the degree to which risk perceptions vary across time, across communities, across households within a community, and across individuals within a household.  We find the primary determinants of risk rankings to be changing community level variables over time, with household specific and...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28415

Risk Preferences, Perceptions and Systematic Biases
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Langrock,   Ines; Hurley,   Terrance M.
Replaced with revised version of paper 07/21/06.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21343

LEVELS OF PEST CONTROL AND UNCERTAINTY OF BENEFITS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tisdell,   Clement A.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1986
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22902

JOINT MODELING AND SIMULATION OF AUTOCORRELATED NON-NORMAL TIME SERIES: AN APPLICATION TO RISK AND RETURN ANALYSIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Somarriba,   Eduardo.
This study presents a technique that can jointly model and simulate the expected values, variances, and covariances of sets of correlated time-series dependent variables that are autocorrelated and non-normal (right or left skewed and/or kurtotic).  It illustrates the method by applying it to risk analysis of diversified tropical agroforestry systems.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21564

Would Subsidizing a Food Pathogen Vaccine Upset the Food Policy Applecart
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Marette,   Stephan; Roe,   Brian E.; Teisl,   Mario F.
Vaccines against several common foodborne pathogens are being developed and could substantially alter the policy tools available to address foodborne illness.  However, little analysis is available to suggest how social welfare would be affected by these new vaccines.  To address this void, we use stated preference data to estimate consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for food safety vaccines and then simulate the welfare impacts on related commodity markets of subsidizing consumer purchases of the vaccine within a partial equilibrium framework.  To obtain consumer demand for the vaccine from the stated preference data, we simultaneously estimate model parameters in an econometrically coherent manner that recognizes the recursive nature of responses to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Food safety; Vaccine; Partial equilibrium; Welfare analysis; Stated preference; Food policy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Health Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q11; Q18.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61480

THE PERFORMANCE OF WEATHER DERIVATIVES IN MANAGING RISKS OF SPECIALTY CROPS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fleege,   Trevor A.; Richards,   Timothy J.; Manfredo,   Mark R.; Sanders,   Dwight R.
California specialty crop growers are exposed to extreme price volatility, as well as considerable yield volatility caused by fluctuations in temperature, precipitation, and other specific weather events. Weather derivatives do provide a promising market-based solution to managing risks for specialty crops. While previous weather derivatives research has focused on the pricing of weather options, little if any research has been conducted evaluating the hedging effectiveness of these instruments in practical risk management settings. Therefore, this research examines the hedging effectiveness of weather derivative strategies for nectarines, raisin grapes, and almonds in Central California. Estimates of the yield-weather relationships for these crops are...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19026

ON RISK DEDUCTIONS IN PUBLIC PROJECT APPRAISAL
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anderson,   Jock R.
Project appraisal under uncertainty should, in general, be worked in terms of carefully computed expected or mean values of uncertain elements. The major exceptions are when: (a) project returns are large relative to national income; or (b) project returns are highly correlated with other national income. Approximate procedures have been developed for computing risk adjustments in each of these special cases singly, but here, a more comprehensive procedure is described that encompasses both cases separately and jointly.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1983
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22747

Discount Rates in Risk v. Money and Money v. Money Tradeoffs
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Alberini,   Anna; Chiabai,   Aline.
We use data from a survey of residents of five Italian cities conducted in late Spring 2004 to estimate the discount rates implicit in (a) money v. future risk reductions and (b) money v. money tradeoffs. We find that the mean personal discount rate is 2% in (a) and 8.7% in (b). The latter is lower than the discount rates estimated in comparable situations in many recent studies, greater than market interest rates in Italy at the time, and exhibits modest variation with age and gender. The discount rate implicit in money v. risk tradeoffs is in line with estimates from studies in the US and Europe, and does not depend on observable individual characteristics.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12209

The Role of Income Diversification, Transaction Cost and Production Risk in Fertilizer Market Participation
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Olale,   Edward; Cranfield,   John A.L.
Past agricultural input market participation studies have generally ignored the joint influence of income diversification, transaction cost and production risk on input market participation decisions. This study develops an analytical framework that jointly incorporates the three factors and other household factors in farmer-fertilizer market participation decisions. The framework is then tested by analyzing the entry and intensity decisions of fertilizer market participation in semi-arid eastern Kenya, at the farm level. Transaction costs and production risk negatively influence both the entry and intensity decisions, while income diversification positively influences the entry decisions. These results are confirmed by nested likelihood ratio tests which...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Income diversification; Transaction cost; Production risk; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13; Q18.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49929

Estimating the Fair Insurance Premium for Dungeness Crab Yields in the Western U.S. Coast
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Liu,   Chia-Lan; Richardson,   James W.; Leatham,   David J.
The Dungeness is a popular food and the most commercially important crab in the western states in the U.S. Like all agricultural production, the crab fisherman face yield risks and must manage these risks. In addition to weather risk, crab fisherman may experience low yields if the crabs are over fished in previous years. Farmers for many traditional agricultural crops can purchase crop insurance to insure against low yields. However, crab fishermen at this time do not have this option. The purpose of this paper is to estimate a fair insurance premium based on the historical yields of the Dungeness crab. This information can then be used in risk/return models for crab fishing to determine if it would be optimal for fisherman to purchase crop insurance. An...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Dungeness Crab; Fair Insurance Premium; Simulation; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103424

NON-EXPECTED UTILITY THEORIES: WEIGHTED EXPECTED, RANK DEPENDENT, AND CUMULATIVE PROSPECT THEORY UTILITY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tuthill,   Jonathan W.; Frechette,   Darren L.
This paper discusses some of the failings of expected utility including the Allais paradox and expected utility's inadequate one dimensional characterization of risk. Three alternatives to expected utility are discussed at length; weighted expected utility, rank dependent utility, and cumulative prospect theory. Each alternative is capable of explaining Allais paradox type problems and permits more sophisticated multi dimensional risk preferences.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19073

Investment Analysis of Agri-Food Ventures: What Risk Premia are Appropriate? The Silence of the Literature
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Unterschultz,   James R.; Quagrainie,   Kwamena K.
Financial principles of project investment analysis deal with the cost and benefit flows over time. Invariably, the correct future cash flows and exact risks are unknown. The agricultural academic literature devotes substantial energy to discussing the estimation of the cash flows but it is relatively silent on applied estimation of risk. Empirical studies on agri-food ventures have made little or no attempt to estimate appropriate risk adjusted discount rates or other risk measures. Choice of discount rate has been arbitrary. Thus little guidance has been given to practitioners analysing agri-food investments as to the appropriate risk adjusted discounts rates. The Capital Market Line provides a relatively straightforward way to calculate risk premiums...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1996
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24131

Innovation Trajectories in Honduras’ Coffee Value Chain. Public and Private Influence on the Use of New Knowledge and Technology among Coffee Growers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hartwich,   Frank; Fromm,   Ingrid; Romero,   Gustavo.
In this paper, results from a study on the use of improved coffee production technology schemes among smallholder coffee producers in three prominent coffee producing regions in Honduras are presented. The impact of various schemes (trajectories) in which different agents influence the producers’ decision to use new technologies was analyzed. In particular, there are differences in the influence of a) private coffee buying organizations and b) government and public development agencies on the innovation behavior of coffee growers. Drawing from network data that depict the internal and outbound connectedness of producers in three village communities in main coffee producing zones in Honduras, tools of social network analysis were applied to find out how...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Coffee production; Innovation; Upgrading; Social networks; Honduras; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Production Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97027

AGRICULTURAL TERRORISM: POTENTIAL ECONOMIC EFFECTS ON THE POULTRY INDUSTRY IN  MISSISSIPPI
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Allen,   Albert J.; Myles,   Albert E.; Fuentes,   Porfirio A.; Muhammad,   Safdar.
An input/output model was developed to estimate the potential economic impact of intentional attacks by agricultural terrorists using Exotic Newcastle Disease (END) on the poultry industry in Mississippi.  The model measured impacts in terms of income, employment, output, and tax changes in the poultry industry.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34750

Captive insurance companies and the management of non-conventional corporate risks
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lesourd,   Jean-Baptiste; Schilizzi,   Steven.
We examine under what conditions setting up a captive insurance company with reinsurance is an optimal solution for risk-averse firms when the insured firm, the insurer and the reinsurer do not know the probability distribution of some risks, and have conflicting estimates of this distribution.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Corporate insurance; Reinsurance; Uncertainty; Ambiguity; Non-conventional risks; Captive insurance companies; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; G22; Q2.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100886

The Relationship Between the ACRE Program and Crop Insurance (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Paulson,   Nicholas D.; Schnitkey,   Gary D.; Zulauf,   Carl R.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: ACRE program; Crop insurance; Risk; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48906

PREMIUM RATE DETERMINATION IN THE FEDERAL CROP INSURANCE PROGRAM: WHAT DO AVERAGES HAVE TO SAY ABOUT RISK?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Goodwin,   Barry K.
This article reviews actuarial procedures used to calculate premium rates in the federal crop insurance program. Average yields are used as an important indicator of risk under current rating practices. The strength and validity of this relationship is examined using historical yield data drawn from a large sample of Kansas farms. The results indicate that assumed relationships between average yields and yield variation are tenuous and imply that rating procedures that rely on average yields may induce adverse selection.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1994
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30747

Experimental examination of land investment decisions with volatile returns   A comparison between Kazakhstani and German farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tubetov,   Dulat; Maart,   Syster Christin; Musshoff,   Oliver.
Kazakhstan and Germany have different development levels of the agricultural sector. One of the explanations for this fact might be the different investment behavior of farmers in the two countries. In this study, we experimentally compare the investment behavior of farmers in the two countries in a farmland investment treatment and a coin tossing game investment treatment. In addition, farmers were confronted with the two treatments in a different order. Results demonstrate that German farmers are more reluctant to make investment than Kazakhstani farmers. Moreover, results are independent from the framing of a farmland investment and a coin tossing game investment treatment. Furthermore, the investment behaviors of farmers were contrasted with normative...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122454

CROP INSURANCE CONTRACTING: MORAL HAZARD COSTS THROUGH SIMULATION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Weaver,   Robert D.; Kim,   Taeho.
Moral hazard costs are estimated using a new crop insurance design approach.  The simulation results show that incorporation of incentive compatibility constraints into insurance design can substantially reduce moral hazard costs.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20729

More than Mean Effects: Modeling the Effect of Climate on the Higher Order Moments of Crop Yields
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tack,   Jesse B.; Harri,   Ardian; Coble,   Keith H.
The objective of this article is to propose the use of moment functions and maximum entropy techniques as a flexible way to estimate conditional crop yield distributions. We present a moment based model that extends previous approaches in several dimensions, and can be easily estimated using standard econometric estimators. Upon identification of the yield moments under a variety of climate and irrigation regimes, we utilize maximum entropy techniques to analyze the distributional impacts from switching regimes. We consider the case of Arkansas, Mississippi, and Texas upland cotton to demonstrate how climate and irrigation affect the shape of the yield distribution, and compare our findings to other moment based approaches. We empirically illustrate...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Climate change; Moments; Entropy; Yield; Cotton; Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123330

Weather derivative design in agriculture – a case study of barley in the Southern Moravia Region
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Spicka,   Jindrich.
The aim of this paper is to point out some problems of index estimation for the purposes of weather derivative valuation considering the particularities of agriculture. The assessment of the sensitivity of barley to weather over 40 years has been the basis for the design and valuation of weather derivative in the Czech Republic (The Southern Moravia Region). The analysis is based on regression modeling using temperature index and barley yield. The burn analysis based on parametric bootstrap is used as the method for the valuation of weather derivative contract. With the effective bootstrap tool, the burn analysis may easily be processed and the uncertainty about the pay-off, option price and statistics of probability distribution of revenues can be...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Weather derivative valuation; Agriculture; Risk management; Basis risk; Burn analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; GA; IN.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116383

Linking Risk and Economic Assessments in the Analysis of Plant Pest Regulations: The Case of U.S. Imports of Mexican Avocados
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Peterson,   Everett B.; Orden,   David.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21339

FARM OPERATING RISK AND CASH RENT DETERMINATION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Turvey,   Calum G.; Baker,   Timothy G.; Weersink,   Alfons.
This article examines farm operating risks and cash-rent determination through the use of the efficient set mathematics. The efficient set mathematics proves to be a pragmatic approach to characterizing operating risks, and the relationships between operating risks and cash-rent determination. Various separation theorems are used to postulate the relationship between operating risk and cash rents. Preliminary evidence appears to support the theoretical conclusion that opperating risk and cash-rent determination are related.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1992
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30733

Economic Evaluation of Bt Corn Refuge Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mitchell,   Paul D.; Hurley,   Terrance M.; Hellmich,   Richard L.
The EPA has imposed mandatory refuge requirements for Bt crops to prolong the efficacy of Bt. Growers have no economic incentive to plant the required refuge because refuge crops are on average less productive and more risky. This paper evaluates refuge insurance—insurance thatpays indemnities for yield losses on refuge due to insect damage—as a tool to increase grower compliance incentives. We determine actuarially fair insurance premiums, then evaluate the feasibility of private provision of refuge insurance and its impact on grower incentives to comply with refuge requirements. A private market for refuge insurance appears unlikely because our analysis suggests that even a 2 percent load on the actuarially fair premium makes growers unwilling to buy...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Bt corn; Crop insurance; Refuge crops; Pest-resistant management; European corn borer; Yield loss; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18565

USING PRIVATE RISK MANAGEMENT INSTRUMENTS TO MANAGE COUNTER-CYCLICAL PAYMENT RISKS UNDER THE NEW FARM BILL
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anderson,   John D.; Coble,   Keith H.; Miller,   J. Corey.
This research evaluates whether or not hedging strategies using call options on the New York Board of Trade cotton futures can be effectively used to protect the new counter-cyclical payment on cotton.  Results indicate that some level of counter-cyclical payment hedging is optimal for risk averse decision makers.  Optimal hedge ratios depend on planting time expectations of the marketing year average price as well as on what crop, if any, has been planted on the base acres receiving the counter-cyclical payment.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18975

Risk and De-Collectivisation: Evidence from the Czech Republic
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bezemer,   Dirk J.
The replacement of wage-labour farms by family farms in Central and Eastern Europe during the transformation has been more limited than was initially expected. In this paper a formal framework is developed in order to analyse the behaviour of family farms and socialist-style farms in the presence of risk, given the typical post-socialist environment. Management incentives, ownership structure, lump-sum transfers and consumption choices are shown to have the potential to limit the size of family farms relative to socialist-style farms. The hypotheses are tested with survey data collected by the author in the Czech Republic.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Transition; Agriculture; Structural change; Risk; Survey data; Risk and Uncertainty; D21; D81; O18; Q12.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24888

Quality Uncertainty and Grain Merchandising Risk: Vomitoxin in Spring Wheat
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Diersen,   Matthew A.; Wilson,   William W.; Johnson,   D. Demcey.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1995
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23365

Should Farmers Invest in Financial Assets as a Risk Management Strategy? Some Evidence from New Zealand
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nartea,   Gilbert V.; Pellegrino,   Juan M.; Webster,   Paul.
Off-farm investment as a risk management strategy is not widespread among New Zealand sheep and beef farmers. This study explores the potential for risk reduction by the diversification of farm asset portfolios to include financial investments such as industrial equities and government bonds of various types. Results show that the negative correlations between long-run rates of return on farm assets and financial investments could result in a significant reduction of risk if equities and bonds were included in farm investment portfolios. However, when combined with information about attitudes to risks, it does not seem likely that farmers would adopt such strategies purely in order to stabilise incomes. Deregulation of the New Zealand economy in the mid...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24376

Federal Crop and Crop Revenue Insurance Programs: Optional, Basic, and Enterprise Units
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Smith,   Vincent H.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29204

DYNAMIC CONTROL AS MEASURE TO STABILIZE AGRICULTUTAL MARKETS: On Theory and Options to Correct Cyclical Movements
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nuppenau,   Ernst-August.
This paper deals with a control theory approach to stabilize cyclical price movements. Firstly, we pursue a welfare economist’s approach, delineating a public objective function derived from consumer and producer surplus as well as trade budget at world market price. Trade is a con¬trol variable and the market price is a state variable. Moreover we assume adaptive formation of price expectation at the producer side. Secondly the control problem is outline and solved by discrete control theory. Thirdly, the paper makes suggestions how to translate the optimal control framework and results into a trade policy of the envisaged country. Finally, limitations are discussed and an outlook for broadening the concept for international concerns is offered.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Dynamic control; Expectations; Cyclical prices; Stabilization policy; Risk and Uncertainty; C54; C61; F61.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122467

The Triple Bottom Line: What is the Impact on the Returns to Agribusiness?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Detre,   Joshua D.; Gunderson,   Michael A.
www.ifama.org
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Event-study; Sustainability; Profitability; Corporate social responsibility; Dow Jones Sustainability Index; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117608

Weather derivatives: Concept and application for their use in South Africa
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Geyser,   J.M.
Recent innovations in energy markets suggest the possibility of addressing agricultural risk factors by issuing derivatives on weather elements. Such instruments appear particularly attractive, as asymmetric information and loss adjustment issues do not affect them. This article first describes the concept, functioning and application of weather derivatives. It then examines the feasibility of rainfall derivatives to manage agricultural production risk in South Africa by evaluating the merits of rainfall options, and suggesting an option strategy, as a yield risk management tool. The use of rainfall derivatives in South Africa is likely to increase in future as capital markets, financial institutions, insurance companies, crop insurance companies and hedge...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9490

“JETZT MUSS ICH NUR NOCH ALT WERDEN“ – RISIKOMANAGEMENT ZUR ALTERSSICHERUNG VON LANDWIRTSCHAFTLICHEN BETRIEBSLEITERN
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nolten,   Ralf.
Der auf einer empirischen Erhebung basierende Beitrag behandelt die Alterssicherung deutscher Landwirte unter den Rahmenbedingungen des landwirtschaftlichen Strukturwandels. Vorsorgebedarf, -fähigkeit und -bereitschaft führen in Abhängigkeit von betrieblichen Merkmalen zu unterschiedlichen Sicherungsstrategien. Diese werden unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Landwirtschaftlichen Altershilfe auf ihre Auswirkungen auf die soziale Lage hin untersucht und mit den Sicherungsstrategien von Altenteilern verglichen. Die Ergebnisse geben keinen Hinweis auf vorhandene oder zukünftig zu erwartende Altersarmut. Verschiedene Vorsorgeinstrumente ergänzen die Landwirtschaftliche Altershilfe als Teilsicherungssystem, das insgesamt positiv bewertet wird.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Political Economy; Risk and Uncertainty; Risiko; Landwirtschaft; Alterssicherung.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52662

The Application of Farm Programs to Commercial Fisheries: The Case of Crop Insurance for the Bristol Bay Commercial Salmon Fisheries
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Greenberg,   Joshua A.; Herrmann,   Mark; Geier,   Hans; Hamel,   Charles.
Under the direction of the Agricultural Risk Protection Act of 2000, the U.S. Congress proposed a crop insurance program for the Bristol Bay, Alaska, commercial salmon fishery. This study examines the feasibility of extending crop insurance to this commercial fishery. The specific focus of this analysis is on differences between this commercial capture fishery and agricultural enterprises in the context of property rights and producer control. Findings show that differences between this commercial fishery and agricultural enterprises would require substantial modifications to existing crop insurance programs. Furthermore, it is recommended that the consideration of extending crop insurance be delayed until this fishery is rationalized.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Bristol Bay; Commercial fisheries; Crop insurance; Farm programs; Property rights; Risk management; Salmon; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59588

That's Where the Money Was: Foreign Bias and English Investment Abroad, 1866-1907
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chabot,   Benjamin; Kurz,   Christopher.
Why did Victorian Britain invest so much capital abroad? We collect over 500,000 monthly returns of British and foreign securities trading in London and the United States between 1866 and 1907. These heretofore-unknown data allow us to better quantify the historical benefits of international diversification and revisit the question of whether British Victorian investor bias starved new domestic industries of capital. We find no evidence of bias. A British investor who increased his investment in new British industry at the expense of foreign diversification would have been worse off. The addition of foreign assets significantly expanded the mean-variance frontier and resulted in utility gains equivalent to a meaningful increase in lifetime consumption.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Capital markets; Home bias; History; Victorian overseas investment; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; E44; F22; G11; G15; N21; N23; O16.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50950

Subjective Risk, Confidence, and Ambiguity
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Traeger,   Christian P.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Ambiguity; Subjective beliefs; Expected utility; Intertemporal substitutability; Intertemporal risk aversion; Recursive utility; Uncertainty; Climate change; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q54; D90; Q01.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90461

Tail Dependence among Agricultural Insurance Indices: The Case of Iowa County-Level Rainfalls
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Liu,   Pu; Miranda,   Mario J.
Index insurance has been promoted as a cost-effective risk management alternative for agricultural producers in developing countries.  In this paper, we ask whether spatially separated weather variables commonly used in index insurance design, such as rainfall at different weather stations within a defined geographical area, are more highly correlated at the tails.  As a case study, we assess the degree of tail dependence exhibited by Iowa June county-level rainfalls using copulas.  We search among various candidate bivariate copulas and, using goodness-of-fit for copulas, attempt to identify the copula structures that best explain the nature of dependence among rainfalls in adjacent counties.  Our results provide strong evidence that lower tail dependence...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Tail dependence; Copulas; Index insurance; Weather indices; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61317

LINKING SCIENCE AND EDUCATION TO EHANCE UNDERSTANDING OF RISK
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kennedy,   Eileen T.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33251

Uncertainty and Specific Investment with Weak Contract Enforcement
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Swinnen,   Johan F.M.; Vercammen,   James.
The relationship between price uncertainty and specific investment is examined in a dynamic model that integrates the theories of real options and investment holdup.  Because of weak contract enforcement, bilateral firms cannot use a contract to govern their bilateral investment and exchange relationship. These firms instead rely on an implicit self-enforcing agreement, and they reduce the investment distortion by negotiating an ex ante transfer (i.e., the investment expense of one firm is partially paid for by the other firm).  In the absence of uncertainty, the ex ante transfer ensures that investment hold-up is fully eliminated.  Our main result is that uncertainty introduces an inefficiency into the ex ante transfer bargaining game, which in turn...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21044

Harvested Roughage and Rangeland Production Risk Management in Montana - Crop Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Johnson,   James B.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29201

Grid Pricing: An Empirical Investigation of Market Signal Clarity
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fausti,   Scott W.; Qasmi,   Bashir A.; Li,   Jing.
The ability of the grid marketing system for fed cattle to provide an efficient price transmission mechanism is investigated.  Nerlove’s (1958) adaptive expectations approach is adopted to model the relationship between grid premiums (discounts) and the weekly relative supply of carcass quality attributes. Linear regression techniques are used to estimate Nerlove’s supply response function. Granger Causality tests are conducted to investigate the relationship between grid premiums (discounts) and the relative supply of carcass quality attributes.  Regression estimates and the Granger Causality tests provide empirical support for the 2005 National Beef Quality Audit call for clearer market signals.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Grid pricing; Price transmission; Carcass quality; Supply response function; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty; Q11; D40.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93253

THE FAILURE OF MARKETABLE PERMIT SYSTEMS AND UNCERTAINTY OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY: A SWITCHING REGIME MODEL APPLIED TO THE DUTCH PHOSPHATE QUOTA PROGRAM
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wossink,   Ada.
A well-known feature of pollution control with tradable quota rights is that the benefits to ownership will capitalize into prices of the quota. Quota present a unique opportunity to examine the effect of risks introduced by governmental programs because all the return to quota is dependent upon these programs. The uncertainty of future regulatory action results from the probability that the stream of incomes could be reduced (portfolio risk) by policy variation or stopped (default risk) by a substantial switch or shock in policy regime. Eliminating the quota program is the extreme case of default risk, as it would terminate the quota benefits. The paper concentrates on the paradox that environmental regulation can provoke economic and environmental...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Switching regime; Option theory; Policy risk; Asset fixity; Phosphate quota; Pork production.; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21792

Extension Programs in Crop Insurance: A Maryland Case Study
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Musser,   Wesley N.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44735

The lower Krishna Basin trajectory: relationships between basin development and downstream environmental degradation
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Venot,   Jean-Philippe; Sharma,   Bharat R.; Rao,   Kamineni V.G.K.
Basin water development and rural dynamics in the Krishna Basin have led to a degradation of downstream ecosystems manifesting itself by salinizing soil and groundwater, increasing pollution, disappearing mangroves and desiccating wetlands. Reversing this evolution requires the formal recognition of the environment as a water user in its own right and the implementation of an environmental water provision. This provision should be based on a two-tier allocation system with assured discharges in the irrigation canals of the delta and to the ocean. This will lead to further commitment of water resources but this is needed to reconcile the social, economic and environmental objectives of a sustainable development. Other measures facilitating integrated...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: River basin development; Lakes; Environmental degradation; Ecosystems; Mangroves; Water allocation; Groundwater; Water quality; Salinity; Irrigated farming; Institutions; Irrigation canals; Rural development; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44515

Can Growth Compensate Inequality and Risk?---a welfare analysis for Chinese households
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cao,   Heping; Ligon,   Ethan; Meng,   Xiangyi.
It has been widely observed that China’'s break-neck growth has not been equally shared between rural and urban areas, with urban households' enjoying a much larger proportion. To further test whether regional inequality exists within urban areas, we measure urban households’ vulnerability in a risky environment and decompose this measure to quantify China aggregate risks, province-level risks and idiosyncratic risks faced by households situated in 31 provinces. Besides, under this framework of analysis, we are able to make welfare comparisons between growth, inequality and different risks. We find that inequality has very big negative effect on households'’ welfare, while growth is able to compensate nearly half of it; households seem to be able to smooth...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Community/Rural/Urban Development; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21458

The Impact of Crop Insurance on the Economic Performance of Hungarian Cropping Farms
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sporri,   Martina; Baráth,   Lajos; Bokusheva,   Raushan; Ferto,   Imre.
Crop insurance products can improve and stabilize economic performance. However, due to insurance market imperfections, the use of insurance products often requires governmental support. This paper analyses the actual impact of insurance products on the economic performance of cropping farms by linking the economic performance model with the insurance demand model. For this analysis, a simultaneous equation system is solved. Our estimations show a negative impact of insurance on the economic performance indicators farm profit, labour productivity and land productivity. The analysis of the insurance demand side confirms financial limitations of many farms.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Hungary; Crop Insurance; 2SCML; Impact evaluation; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q14; G22.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122525

On trade efficiency in the Ethiopian agricultural markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Quattri,   Maria A.
The availability of enabling institutions, information systems and infrastructure is a precondition to enhance agricultural markets’ efficiency, and make market actors less vulnerable to price instability. This paper investigates whether the focus on institutional and technological upgrading is enough to make Ethiopian agricultural markets more efficient. In particular, given that a requirement for exchange efficiency is the lack of unexploited mutually beneficial spatial arbitrage opportunities, we look for evidence of increasing returns to transaction size and returns to scale in transport using detailed trader surveys collected in 2001 and 2007. Whilst transport costs could be reduced by assembling loads and avoiding trans-shipments for the...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Ethiopia; Market efficiency; International Development; Risk and Uncertainty; O13; Q13.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122512

Changes in Producers’ Perceptions of Within-field Yield Variability Following Adoption of Cotton Yield Monitors
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rejesus,   Roderick M.; Marra,   Michele C.; Roberts,   Roland K.; English,   Burton C.; Larson,   James A.; Paxton,   Kenneth W.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Precision Farming; Risk; Yield Monitor; Yield Variability; Yield Perceptions; Spatial Yield Distributions; Within Field Variability; Farm Management; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q16.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60971

Exclusivity of Agrifood Supply Chains: Seven Fundamental Economic Characteristics
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sporleder,   Thomas L.; Boland,   Michael A.
The IFAMR is published by the International Food and Agribusiness Management Association. IFAMA. www.ifama.org
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Agrifood supply chains; Exclusive economic characteristics; Risk; Market power; Globalization; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty; Q130.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119969

The Financialization of Agricultural Futures Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gilbert,   Christopher L.
Plenary presentation from 123rd EAAE Seminar, 23-24 February, Dublin, Ireland
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122775

WHOLESALER MARKUP DECISIONS UNDER DEMAND UNCERTAINTY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Park,   Timothy A.; Lohr,   Luanne.
We examine consistency with economic theory of markup decisions for a risk averse firm facing demand uncertainty.  We derive testable comparative static results that describe the influence on the markup of expected demand, demand uncertainty, average variable costs and exogenous demand shifters.  We test the model using data from the wholesale market for organic lettuce. Our results demonstrated that risk averse  wholesalers raise markups as expected demand increases and reduce them as uncertainty increases.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk aversion; Marketing margins; Comparative statics; Organics; Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1996
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16699

VALUING RISK-REDUCING INTERVENTIONS WITH HEDONIC MODELS: THE CASE OF EROSION PROTECTION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dorfman,   Jeffrey H.; Keeler,   Andrew G.; Kriesel,   Warren.
This article extends the literature on economic valuation of public interventions that reduce environmental risk. We consider the case where risk-reducing interventions have different characteristics than the risk proxies used in hedonic regressions. We then demonstrate the importance of these considerations by reexamining an existing analysis of shoreline protection where we estimate risk using a latent variables model. The results show substantially different and arguably more plausible results.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1996
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31001

The Paradox of Risk Balancing: Do Risk-reducing Policies Lead to More Risk for Farmers?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cheng,   Mei-luan; Gloy,   Brent A.
The study presents stochastic optimal control/dynamic programming (SOC/DP) to derive the optimal debt level and consumption in farm models concerning two sources of uncertainty: the return on assets and interest rate.  The SOC/DP analytic framework is used to analyze the impacts of risk-reducing farm policies on farm’s financial and risk adjustments.  The results show the violations of the risk-balancing concept, which theorizes that risk-reducing farm policies may lead to increases in financial leverage, total risk, and the expected returns.  Also, this study examines the extent to which the estimates of the optimal debt level are biased when interest rate risk is ignored.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Stochastic Optimal Control/Dynamic Programming; Financial Leverage; Uncertainty; Risk Balancing; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6546

Dealing with the tradeoff between water for nature and water for rural livelihoods in the presence of climate uncertainties: lessons for water management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Varela-Ortega,   Consuelo; Blanco-Gutierrez,   Irene; Swartz,   Christopher H.; Downing,   Thomas E.
In arid countries worldwide, social conflicts between irrigation-based human development and the conservation of aquatic ecosystems are widespread and attract many public debates. This research focuses on the analysis of water and agricultural policies aimed to conserve groundwater resources and to maintain rural livelihoods in a basin in Spain’s central arid region. Intensive groundwater mining has caused overexploitation of the basin’s large aquifer and the degradation of internationally reputed wetlands. This has caused notable social conflicts over the years but the  policies implemented have not been able to solve them so far. The methodology consists in the integration of a farm-based economic model and a basin-based hydrology model to analyze the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Water policies; Irrigation agriculture; Hydro-economic modeling.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51420

Exploring the Impacts of Risk Communication Policies on Welfare: Theoretical Aspects
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Stefani,   Gianluca; Valli,   Carlotta.
The aim of this paper is to explore possible measures to assess welfare changes resulting from alternative risk communication policies drawing on previous work on welfare losses due to incorrect risk perceptions. A review of the literature analysing models of risk information processing point out the role of Bayesian updating processes in modelling changing risk perceptions. On the other hand welfare analysis of the consequences of action undertaken under ignorance suggest possible measures of the benefits of improved risk communication. An illustrative example of welfare losses due to poor information is provided using the classical data set on milk contamination in Ohau (Hawaii). Welfare measures are obtained comparing the real observed behaviour with an...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Food Security and Poverty; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24989

Determining Poultry Indemnity Values: Examples and Lessons Learned from Poultry Disease Outbreaks in Canada and the United States
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ott,   Stephen L.; Bergmeier,   Kirsti.
Avian influenza disease outbreaks in both Canada and the United States resulted in the depopulation of several million birds.  Both countries have laws and regulations stating that owners will receive indemnity from the government to compensate for assets taken or destroyed. Government economists from both countries were charged with the task of determining value upon which indemnity was based.  This paper explores the process used to determine value in an industry where market prices are not always observable.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34163

Pre-harvest Forecasting of County Wheat Yield and Wheat Quality Conditional on Weather Information
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lee,   Byoung-Hoon; Kenkel,   Philip L.; Brorsen,   B. Wade.
Wheat regression models that account for the effect of weather are developed to forecast wheat yield and quality. Spatial lag effects are included. Wheat yield, protein, and test weight level are strongly influenced by weather variables. The forecasting power of the yield and protein models was enhanced by adding the spatial lag effect. Out of sample forecasting tests confirm the models’ usefulness in accounting for the variations in average wheat yield and qualities.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Prediction; Protein; Spatial lag; Test weight; Weather; Wheat yield; Agribusiness; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98829

EMPIRICAL MEASURES OF RISK FOR SELECTED FIELD AND HORTICULTURE CROPS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mathia,   Gene A.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1976
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29940

The role of grazier motivations and risk attitudes in the adoption of grazing best management practices
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Greiner,   Romy; Miller,   Owen; Patterson,   Louisa.
The onus on landholders in relation to environmental performance is ever increasing. One tool for achieving environmental improvements is the design and promotion of region-specific ‘best management practices’ (BMPs). These are conservation practices aimed at reducing diffuse source pollution from agricultural lands and thus improving end-of-catchment water quality. A suite of grazing BMPs were developed for the Burdekin Dry Tropics region in a consultative fashion but without explicit consideration of knowledge of adoption processes. It is known from the literature that farmers’ goals and risk perceptions in particular influence adoption decisions. This paper utilises the data from an earlier grazier survey to explore to what extent grazier motivations...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Conservation practices; Adoption; Water quality; Grazing; Burdekin River catchment; Best management practices; Risk management; Motivations; Empirical research; Correlations; Factor analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6002

Eliciting the Demand for Long Term Care Coverage: A Discrete Choice Modelling Analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Brau,   Rinaldo; Bruni,   Matteo Lippi.
We evaluate the demand for long term care (LTC) insurance prospects in a stated preference context, by means of the results of a choice experiment carried out on a representative sample of the Emilia-Romagna population. Choice modelling techniques have not been used yet for studying the demand for LTC services. In this paper these methods are first of all used in order to assess the relative importance of the characteristics which define some hypothetical insurance programmes and to elicit the willingness to pay for some LTC coverage prospects. Moreover, thanks to the application of a nested logit specification with ‘partial degeneracy’, we are able to model the determinants of the preference for status quo situations where no systematic cover for LTC...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12184

STOCHASTIC PRODUCTION AND HETEROGENEOUS RISK PREFERENCES: COMMERCIAL FISHERS' GEAR CHOICE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Eggert,   Hakan; Tveteras,   Ragnar.
As long as total effort cannot be completely controlled, a more thorough understanding of fishers' supply response decisions will be beneficial for fisheries managers. In this paper, we present a model of fishers' gear choice, which is empirically estimated on a panel of Swedish demersal trawlers. The approach allows for heterogeneity both in production technology and in risk preferences. Stochastic revenue functions with fixed effects are estimated and used to predict expected revenue and standard deviation for each trip. We employ a linear utility function in the mean-standard deviation framework and then analyze the gear choices, using the predicted values together with vessel capacity and lagged variables for the previous trip in a random parameters-...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20671

Production Risk and Crop Insurance Effectiveness: Organic Versus Conventional Apples
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chen,   Xiaomei; Wang,   H. Holly; Makus,   Larry D.
This paper empirically examines the income risks for Pacific Northwest apple growers, both conventional and organic.  Current yield based apple production insurance, the Growers Yield Certification (GYC), and hypothesized revenue based insurance are also examined for their risk management effect on growers. Results show that organic apple production is more risky but has higher expected return than its conventional counterpart.  The current GYC is subsidized and subsidized more for organic growers.  However, the current low price selection levels prevent these programs from offering effective risk reducing effect, and they also prevent the hypothesized revenue insurance from showing its advantage over yield insurance as in the case of other major field...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9381

The Demand for Specialty-Crop Insurance: Adverse Selection and Inefficiency
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Richards,   Timothy J.; Mischen,   Pamela.
The twin problems of moral hazard and adverse selection are often blamed for the lack of insurance for many fruits and vegetables. This paper develops an alternative method of testing for adverse selection that uses a two-stage approach to determine the effects of technical inefficiency on the demand for insurance. With this approach, technical inefficiency is interpreted as an indicator of adverse selection. Because there is no active insurance market for many specialty crops, and thin markets for those that are insurable, a contingent valuation approach is used to obtain the data necessary to estimate the demand for three different types of insurance. The results suggest adverse selection may be a deterrent to the viability of extending the breadth of...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Contingent valuation; Crop insurance; Fruits and vegetables; Moral hazard; Risk; Uncertainty; Agribusiness; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90435

Farmer management of production risk on degraded lands: the role of wheat genetic diversity in Tigray Region, Ethiopia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Di Falco,   Salvatore; Chavas,   Jean-Paul; Smale,   Melinda.
This paper investigates the effects of wheat genetic diversity and land degradation on risk and agricultural productivity in less favored production environments of a developing agricultural economy. Drawing production data from household survey conducted in the highlands of Ethiopia, we estimate a stochastic production function to evaluate the effects of variety richness, land degradation, and their interaction on the mean and the variance of wheat yield. Ethiopia is a centre of diversity for durum wheat and farmers manage complex variety mixtures on multiple plots. Econometric evidence shows that variety richness increases farm productivity. Variety richness also reduces yield variability but only for high levels of genetic diversity. Simulations with...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Land degradation; Wheat production; Productivity; Risk; Genetic diversity; Household surveys; Biodiversity; Stochastic analysis; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55417

Weather Derivatives as Risk Management Tool in Ecuador:  A Case Study of Rice Production
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vedenov,   Dmitry V.; Sanchez,   Leonardo.
This paper analyzes efficiency of weather derivatives as insurance instruments for rice in Ecuador. Weather derivatives were constructed for each county/season combination. Complicated weather models were estimated for the index, and a copula approach was used to get the probability distributions. We find Risk-reducing efficiency varies across county and season.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Agricultural risk management; Index insurance; Weather derivatives; Copula approach; Rice production; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q14; Q59.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98747

RISK EFFICIENCY OF ALTERNATE CANOLA MANAGEMENT DECISIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Upadhyay,   Bharat Mani; Smith,   Elwin G.; Clayton,   George; Harker,   Neil.
This study evaluates profitability and risk associated with eighteen different management decisions for canola production in Alberta. Expected payoff from cultivar selection outweighs the payoff from time of seeding and from time of weed control. Expected payoff was higher from hybrid compared to inbred cultivars. Early spring seeding was more profitable than fall or mid-May seeding. A typical decision in the sample showed positive and significant upper limit risk-expected return tradeoffs. The generalized stochastic dominance analysis revealed that early spring seeding was dominant over fall and mid-May seeding across all risk averse and risk neutral farmers. Weed control at the six-leaf stage was risk efficient for a risk averter. A risk neutral farmer...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34193

Risk Considerations in Supply Response: Implications for Counter-Cyclical Payments' Production Impact
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lin,   William W.; Dismukes,   Robert.
This study investigates the role of risk in farmers' acreage decisions in the Northcentral region by revisiting an earlier study by Chavas and Holt and tests the null hypothesis regadring the effects of wealth and draw out implications for farmers' risk attitudes.  Estimated model results are used to examine counter-cyclical payments' production impact for major field crops.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Supply response; Marketing loan programs; Counter-cyclical payments; Northcentral region; Corn; Soybeans; Wheat; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19304

A REVIEW OF THE PSYCHOLOGICAL LITERATURE ON RISK PERCEPTION IN TERMS OF CHANCE, HARM, AND CONTEXT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Decker,   Bill D.
This review examines the psychological literature on risk perception in terms of van Ravenswaay's proposal of a broad-based definition of risk perception that includes the three concepts of chance, harm, and context.  The review further investigates the manner in which psychological researchers attempt to measure risk perception.  It is suggested that the majority of psychological research on risk perception does not address van Ravenswaay's concepts in a comprehensive manner.  This review of the psychological literature reveals that elements of van Ravenswaay's concepts are often employed as variables by psychological researchers, although not in a fashion similar to that suggested by van Ravenswaay.  It is proposed that van Ravenswaay's definition of...
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1995
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11171

From an Index/Hedge Fund Perspective: Commodities as an Investment - Impact on Futures Markets (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rudderow,   Timothy.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50576

Can Crop Insurance Premiums Be Reliably Estimated?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Carpio,   Carlos E.; Rejesus,   Roderick M.
This paper develops and applies a methodology to assess the accuracy of historical loss-cost rating procedures, similar to those used by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Risk Management Agency (RMA), versus alternative parametric premium estimation methods. It finds that the accuracy of loss-cost procedures leaves much to be desired, but can be markedly improved through the use of alternative methods and increased farm-level yield sample sizes. Evidence suggests that the high degree of inaccuracy in crop insurance premium estimations through historical loss-cost procedures identified in the paper might be a major factor behind the need for substantial government subsidies to keep the program solvent.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural subsidies; Crop insurance premium estimation; Loss-cost procedures; Risk Management Agency; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/107091

CONVERGÊNCIA DE PREÇOS DO BOI SOB PRESENÇA DE QUEBRA ESTRUTURAL
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cunha,   Cleyzer Adrian da; Cunha,   Alex Aires; Araujo,   Kleber Domingos.
As variáveis econômicas são afetadas por políticas econômicas e por eventos de caráter exógeno, como bruscas variações climáticas, guerras e desastres ecológicos. Esses eventos caracterizam efeitos conhecidos como “outlier” e devem ser considerados na modelagem econométrica. O estudo procurou  analisar a integração de mercado juntamente com os efeitos da presença da quebra estrutural nas séries do preço do boi de corte recebido pelo produtor no estado de Goiás e  no Brasil. A principal contribuição do estudo em relação a outros trabalhos foi a utilização do teste de raiz unitária desenvolvido por VOGELSANG (1999) juntamente com teste de co-integração para a presença de "outlier" desenvolvido por GREGORY e HANSEN (1996). Dentre os principais resultados,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Quebra estrutural; Preços; Integração; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/109728

CLIMATE CHANGE AND CROP YIELD DISTRIBUTION: SOME NEW EVIDENCE FROM PANEL DATA MODELS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR CROP INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chang,   Ching-Cheng; Chen,   Chi-Chung.
This study examines the impact of climate on yield for seven major crops in Taiwan based on a pooled panel data of 15 counties over the period 1977-1996.  Unit-root tests and maximum likelihood methods are explored to obtain reliable estimates. Results suggest that climate has diversified impacts on crop yields and their variability.  A simple crop insurance model by Ahsan, Ali, and Kurian (1982) is shown how crop yield distribution can be the base to calculate the premium and indemnity.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19589

SOURCES OF AND SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN AGRICULTURAL RISK: THE VIEW FROM THE COAST
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Marra,   Michele C.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15088

Farmers Home Administration Regulations Affecting Delinquent Borrowers
Provedor de dados: 31
Tipo: Technical Report
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1986
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120444

Should farmers invest in financial assets as a risk management strategy? Some evidence from New Zealand
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nartea,   Gilbert V.; Webster,   Paul.
This study explores the potential for risk reduction by New Zealand farmers through the diversification of their farm asset portfolios to include financial investments such as ordinary industrial shares, government bonds and bank bills. Low correlations between rates of return on farm and these financial assets suggest that significant reduction of income variability might follow their inclusion in farmers’ portfolios. Stochastic efficiency analysis is used to analyse alternative portfolios of ordinary shares, government bonds and bank bills and New Zealand farmland, using coefficients of absolute risk aversion derived from a negative exponential utility function. The results suggest that those farmers showing high degrees of risk aversion would gain...
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Financial assets; NZ farmland; Risk management; Stochastic efficiency analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118538

ECONOMIC THRESHOLDS UNDER UNCERTAINTY WITH APPLICATION TO CORN NEMATODE MANAGEMENT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Moffitt,   L. Joe; Hall,   Darwin C.; Osteen,   Craig D.
An economic threshold of agricultural pest management is derived.  Results provide a method for researchers to use in making improved pest control recommendations to farmers without farm level decision-making.  An empirical illustration for lesion nematode management in irrigated corn is given and directions for further research are indicated.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1984
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29732

Análise dos Resultados de Operações de Hedging com Contratos Futuros de Boi Gordo da BM&amp;F: 2001 a 2006
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Alves,   Alexandre Florindo; Serra,   Marco Henrique.
O presente estudo tem como objetivo, usando simulações, analisar as operações de hedge com contratos de boi gordo da Bolsa de Mercadorias &amp; Futuros (BM&amp;F). As simulações compreenderam o período de 2001 a 2006, sendo que em todos os anos os contratos simulados são do mesmo vencimento, outubro com entrada na operação no mês de março, em três estados diferentes: São Paulo, Paraná e Mato Grosso do Sul. A estratégia de utilização do mercado futuro mostrou-se viável, desde que acompanhada do conhecimento de fatores que interferem no mecanismo de comercialização: o comportamento da base e do risco de base em cada região. O conhecimento e o acompanhamento destes fatores, através dos anos, tem fundamental importância na tomada de decisão para operações no...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Boi gordo; Contratos futuros; Simulações; Hedge; Live cattle; Futures contracts; Simulations; Hedge; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102471

WEATHER INSURANCE TO PROTECT SPECIALTY CROPS AGAINST COSTS OF IRRIGATION IN DROUGHT YEARS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mafoua,   Edouard.
The purpose of this research is to develop a rainfall insurance product to insure irrigation costs applied to NAP crops, and to compare  the efficacy of this insurance on a dollar basis relative to conventional crop insurance. An economic model is developed that illustrates the relationship between rainfall, crop yields, costs of irrigation and profits.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21922

Hedging Yield with Weather Derivatives: A Role for Options
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Manfredo,   Mark R.; Richards,   Timothy J.
While there are few risk management alternatives available to specialty crop growers, weather derivatives provide an important advancement.  As with the use of any derivatives contract, the behavior of the basis will ultimately determine the net-hedged outcome.  However, when using weather derivatives to hedge yield risks for specialty crops, growers face a unique form of basis risk because weather (temperature) and yield are nonlinearly related.  Using the forecast encompassing principle, this research shows that the nonlinear relationship between yield and weather creates a role for options in an optimal hedging program.  The results suggest that weather derivative instruments with nonlinear payoffs, such as options, be used in combination with linear...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Weather Derivatives; Forecast Encompassing; Composite Hedges; Risk and Uncertainty; Q14; G13.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19369

Consumer Perception of the Use of High-Pressure Processing and Pulsed Electric Field Technologies in Food Production
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sonne,   Anne-Mette; Grunert,   Klaus G.; Olsen,   Nina Veflen; Granli,   Britt-Signe; Banati,   Diana; Pollak-Toth,   Annamaria; Szabo,   Erzsebet.
New food processing technologies are developed on a continuous basis. While food scientists may applaud the progress of science, consumers have been known to take a more conservative approach and do not always readily see the benefits of new processing methods. As learned from earlier examples (such as GM and irradiation), the advantages that a new processing technology has to offer do not necessarily guarantee the success of a product in the market place. If consumers do not perceive the benefits of a new technology as relevant, its application is threatened. For example, studies of consumer attitudes towards GM foods have found that consumer acceptance depends on whether consumers perceive specific benefits associated with the product (Frewer et al....
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59111

Designing Catastrophe Bonds to Securitize Systemic Risks in Agriculture: The Case of Georgia Cotton
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vedenov,   Dmitry V.; Epperson,   James E.; Barnett,   Barry J.
This article makes an initial attempt to design catastrophe (CAT) bond products for agriculture and examines the potential of these instruments as mechanisms for transferring agricultural risks from insurance companies to investors/speculators in the global capital market. The case of Georgia cotton is considered as a specific example. The CAT bond contracts are based on percentage deviations of realized state average yields relative to the long-run average. The contracts are priced using historical state-level cotton yield data. The principal finding of the study is that the proposed CAT bonds demonstrate potential as risk transfer mechanisms for crop insurance companies.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: CAT bonds; Catastrophe bond pricing; Catastrophe insurance; Disaster risk; Reinsurance; Risk securitization; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8610

KANSAS WHEAT YIELD RISK MEASURES AND AGGREGATION: A META- ANALYSIS APPROACH
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Marra,   Michele C.; Schurle,   Bryan W.
A meta-analysis approach to prediction of farm level yield risk from county level yield series is applied to Kansas wheat yields.  A nonlinear relationship between county level and farm level yield risk is found, which indicates that yield risk increases at an increasing rate as the number of acres in the risk measure decreases.  County level yield variability should be adjusted upward by approximately .1% for each percent difference in county acreage and average farm acreage within the county.  The meta-analysis approach is shown to be promising for the prediction of farm level yield risk when farm level information is difficult to obtain.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1994
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31228

Innovations in Government Responses to Catastrophic Risk Sharing for Agriculture in Developing Countries
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Skees,   Jerry R.; Barnett,   Barry J.; Hartell,   Jason G.
Markets for transferring catastrophic risk in agriculture are woefully lacking in developing countries. Even in developed countries, markets for transferring the risk of crop losses caused by natural hazards generally exist only with large government subsidies. However, such subsidies can be expensive, inefficient, and have detrimental implications that make future catastrophes even worse. In developing countries fiscal constraints limit the degree to which governments can subsidize markets for agricultural risk-sharing. Nonetheless, there are specific things governments can do to facilitate the development of these markets. This paper addresses the role of government in agricultural risk-sharing for natural disasters that impact crop yields or livestock...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; D8; H5; Q14; Q18; Q54.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25548

Estimating Non-linear Weather Impacts on Corn Yield—A Bayesian Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Yu,   Tian; Babcock,   Bruce A.
We estimate impacts of rainfall and temperature on corn yields by fitting a linear spline model with endogenous thresholds. Using Gibbs sampling and the Metropolis - Hastings algorithm, we simultaneously estimate the thresholds and other model parameters. A hierarchical structure is applied to capture county-specific factors determining corn yields. Results indicate that impacts of both rainfall and temperature are nonlinear and asymmetric in most states. Yield is concave in both weather variables. Corn yield decreases significantly when temperature increases beyond a certain threshold, and when the amount of rainfall decreases below a certain threshold. Flooding is another source of yield loss in some states. A moderate amount of heat is beneficial to...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Bayesian estimation; Gibbs sampler; Hierarchical structure; Metropolis-Hastings algorithm; Non-linear; Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103915

An Economic Analysis of Water Infrastructure Investments, Agricultural Productivity and Climate Change in the Mekong Delta: Adapting to Increased Salinity and Sea Level Rise
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Corderi Novoa,   David; Williams,   Jeffrey C.; Howitt,   Richard E.; Lund,   Jay R.
Replaced with revised version of paper 07/24/11.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Adaptation; Agriculture; Water resources; Dynamic programming; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Development; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54; Q25; Q15.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103875

Commodity futures markets: a survey
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Carter,   Colin A.
This review article describes the main contributions in the literature on commodity futures markets. It is argued that modern studies have focused primarily on technical questions, with insufficient economic content. More research needs to be directed towards understanding fundamental economic issues such as why so few farmers hedge, the impacts of government farm programs on commodity futures, and the market impacts of commodity pools. The literature has failed to explain the prevalence of inverted markets in grains and oilseeds, and there is unexplainable price volatility in markets such as hogs and orange juice.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117044

Risk Management Strategies in Humid Production Regions: A Comparison of Supplemental Irrigation and Crop Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dalton,   Timothy J.; Porter,   Gregory A.; Winslow,   Noah G.
Recent federal agricultural programs have accelerated the devolution of enterprise risk management responsibility from the state to individual producers. Using a biophysical simulation model, the risk management benefits of federal crop insurance and supplemental irrigation are derived and compared to uninsured rainfed crop production in an expected utility framework. Federal crop insurance programs are inefficient at reducing producer exposure to weather-related production risk in humid regions, and the risk management benefits from supplemental irrigation are found to be scale and technology dependent. Environmental policies that regulate resource development will increase the investment cost of irrigation alternatives and reduce economic feasibility.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31269

The Effect of Communicating Ambiguous Risk Information on Choice
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Melkonyan,   Tigran A.
Decision makers are frequently confronted with ambiguous risk information about activities with potential hazards. This may be a result of conflicting risk estimates from multiple sources or ambiguous risk information from a single source. The paper considers processing ambiguous risk information and its effect on the behavior of a decision maker with a-maximin expected utility preferences. The effect of imprecise risk information on behavior is related to the content of information, the decision maker’s trust in different sources of information, and his or her aversion to ambiguity.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: A-Maximin Expected Utility; Aggregation of expert opinions; Ambiguity; Knightian uncertainty; Risk communication; Trust in information source; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117170

Can Risk Reducing Policies Reduce Farmer's Risk and Improve Their Welfare?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anton,   Jesus; Giner,   Celine.
This paper develops an analytical model able to represent the decisions of an individual risk averse farmer facing variability in both prices and yields. A comprehensive set of stylised risk reducing policy measures is represented. A calibration of the model is used to run Monte-Carlo simulations and to obtain optimal responses. The main focus is the interaction between policy measures and market strategies in terms of impacts on production, welfare and risk. Risk reducing strategies that cover different sources of risk, such as price and yield variability, may be complementary for the farmers. Counter-cyclical area payments create incentives to bring land into production and their capacity to reduce farming risk is mitigated by the potential crowding out...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Welfare; Policy; Insurance; Counter-cyclical; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q12.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24578

Evaluating the Potential of Whole-Farm Insurance Over Crop-Specific Insurance Policies
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bielza,   Maria; Garrido,   Alberto.
Since 1996, different formats of whole-farm insurance (WFI) have been launched in North America and Spain. Their rationale is to pool all farm's insurable risks into a single policy that provides cheaper coverage against the farm's revenue losses. We evaluate the gains of moving from a situation of full insurance coverage delivered by crop-specific policies to WFI. Based on the records of individual farmers gathered by the Spanish Agricultural Insurance Agency (ENESA), we select two representative farms in Valencia that have consistently purchased insurance during 1993-2004 for three crops (apricots, plums and wine grapes). WFI is designed to deliver exactly the same expected revenue than does the combined effects of three crop-specific multiple-peril...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural insurance; Whole-farm insurance; Simulation; Crop risks; Spanish agriculture; Risk and Uncertainty; Q14; G; Q18.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25421

The Viability of a Crop Insurance Investment Account: The Case for Obion, County, Tennessee
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gerloff,   Delton C.
This paper evaluates the feasibility of farmer-owned crop insurance accounts. The accounts, similar to retirement accounts, accumulate pre-subsidy premiums and dispense indemnities. Government involvement is that of guaranteeing loans if indemnities exceed the account balance. Substantial government savings occur through insurance premium subsidy elimination.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35429

A Comparison of the Great Mississippi River Floods of 1993 and 2011: Implications for Crop Insurance and Reinsurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vergara,   Oscar.
The flooding situation in 2011 is similar in nature to the Great Mississippi Flood of 1993, but different in the particulars. First, the timing of the flood within the growing season is different. Second, the two floods occurred in different regions, with the 1993 flood affecting a portion of the Corn Belt and the 2011 flood affecting a region farther south. While floodwaters have inundated several million acres of cropland in 2011, yield losses from delayed planting are expected to be limited. Furthermore, the affected states from the current flood are primarily Group 2 states under the current SRA, which are provided with greater reinsurance protection by the government than the Group 1 states.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Great Mississippi Flood; 1993; 2011; SRA; Crop Insurance Losses; AIR Model; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; C; Q.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104897

The Role of Electronic  Communications in Stabilizing Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Epperson,   James E.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1985
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59832

STABILISATION AND RISK REDUCTION IN AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Quiggin,   John C.; Anderson,   Jock R.
Agricultural producers typically are faced with risk about the yields they will experience and the prices they will receive. Stabilisation schemes can spread risk and thereby reduce the risk faced by individual producers. The risk-reducing capacity of a scheme and the cost of risk reduction depend upon the design of the scheme. In particular, it is important to distinguish between risk and instability. A classification of scheme designs is presented to bring out the effects of various design types. Schemes for the wheat industry are given most attention.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1979
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22969

Dairy Farm Revenue Insurance:  Is the Application Viable?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wolf,   Christopher A.; Black,   J. Roy; Hadrich,   Joleen C.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21286

Was the Pea Futures Contract Doomed to Fail? An Analysis of the 1995 Canadian Contract
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lyster,   N.V.; Lerohl,   Mel L.; Unterschultz,   James R.
Feed peas are relatively high in energy and protein and compete with other feed grains and protein crops in the livestock feed market. Prior to 1995, a futures market did not exist for this commodity. To meet industry demand for a hedging and forward pricing mechanism, the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE) introduced a feed pea futures contract in November 1995. This study investigates the Canadian feed pea market prior to and during the startup of this first WCE feed pea futures contract. In particular, the study explores whether the WCE could have conducted an analysis using then-existing data that would have assisted in the design and establishment of the futures contract. The primary research objective was to determine the ability of the Winnipeg feed...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45693

Alternative Insurance Indexes for Drought Risk in Developing Countries
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bobojonov,   Ihtiyor; Sommer,   Rolf.
The paper compares the risk coping potential of insurances that are based on indices derived from weather (rainfall and temperature) data as well as from crop model and remote sensing analyses. Corresponding indices were computed for the case of wheat production in the Aleppo region of northern Syria, representative for agricultural production systems in many developing countries. The results demonstrate that weather derivatives such as the rainfall sum index (RSI) and the rainfall deficit index (RDI) have a very good potential for coping with risk in semiarid areas. Crop simulation model index (CSI) on the other hand could serve as an alternative to RSI and RDI when historical farm yield data is not available or not reliable. In such cases we simulated...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk management; Index insurance; Alternative index; CropSyst; NDVI; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114256

AAEA Post Conference Workshop on Simulation for Risk Analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Richardson,   James W.; Gray,   Allan W.
The attached file contains the original proposal for the post conference workshop, the agenda used at the conference, the overheads used to present the topic, and a summary of the evaluations.  The workshop introduced participants to risk analysis using Excel and Simetar a simulation/econometrics package for developing and applying simulation models for risk analysis.  Simetar was developed at Texas A&amp;M and is used to teach two simulation courses at the graduate level.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19737

RAZÃO ÓTIMA DE HEDGE PARA OS CONTRATOS FUTUROS DO BOI GORDO: UMA ANÁLISE DO MECANISMO DE CORREÇÃO DE ERROS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zilli,   Julcemar Bruno; Silva,   Adriana Ferreira; Campos,   Silva Kanadani; Costa,   Jaqueline Severino.
A gestão dos resultados das atividades agropecuárias tem se tornado um constante desafio para os empresários rurais e a sua mensuração é imprescindível para o planejamento e análises de desempenho. No caso do mercado do boi gordo não tem sido diferente, principalmente, no que se refere às oscilações apresentadas nos preços. Nesse sentido, o mercado futuro tem se traduzido em um importante instrumento para reduzir os riscos de oscilação de preços. Porém, o pecuarista precisa identificar qual a proporção da produção que deve ser protegida. Assim, o objetivo principal do presente estudo consiste em estimar a razão ótima de hedge (ROH) para os pecuaristas da região de Cuiabá/MT e Campo Grande/MS utilizando o Mecanismo de Correção de Erros (MCE) para os dados...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Preços físicos e futuro; Boi Gordo; MCE; Razão ótima de hedge; Future and spot prices; Fat cattle; ECM; Optimal hedge ratio; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/109584

JAAE Front page
Provedor de dados: 31
Includes: Front Cover, Editorial Information, JAAE Manuscript Submission Guidelines
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/113515

Editors' Report - February 7, 2011
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Marchant,   Mary A.; Bosch,   Darrell J.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/113516

A MODEL FOR THE APPRAISAL OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF THE PROJECTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Soliman,   Ibrahim.
Social Appraisal of Agricultural Projects
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Direct costs; Direct Benefits. External costs; External Benefits; Net Present Value; Sensitivity Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1995
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/208995

ANALYSIS OF FARM FINANCING AND RISK MANAGEMENT FOR U.S. FARMERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Koo,   Won W.; Duncan,   Marvin R.; Taylor,   Richard D.
Significant changes under the 1996 FAIR Act and trade agreements are occurring in the U.S. farm sector.  The changes will affect both the source and the magnitude of the business and financial risks that farmers will be required to manage. The objectives of this study were to investigate farmer plans regarding business expansion, timing of expansion, and expected financing of that business expansion and to analyze their financial services and risk management strategies. The study was based on data from a nationwide survey of subscribers to Top Operator farm magazine.  The data were categorized into six groups for analysis: demographics, intergenerational transfer, debt characteristics, lender relationships, business expansion, and farmer expectations of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Farm credit; Expansion plans; Debt-to-asset ratio; Farm demographics; Financial tools; Credit sources; Financial services; Non-traditional lending; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23268

Directional Spatial Dependence and Its Implications for Modeling Systemic Yield Risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zhu,   Ying; Ghosh,   Sujit K.; Goodwin,   Barry K.
The objective of this study is to evaluate and model the spatial dependence of systemic yield risk. Various spatial autoregressive models are explored to account for county level dependence of crop yields. The results show that the time trend parameters of yields are correlated across spaces and the spatial correlations are changing with time. In addition, the spatial correlation of neighborhood in west/east direction is stronger than that of north/south direction. The information of the spatial dependence of yield risk will help the construction of better risk management programs for protecting producers from systemic yield risks.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Spatial Autoregressive Model; Spatial Dependence; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49455

Can Multiyear Rollover Hedging Increase Mean Returns?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Yoon,   Byung-Sam; Brorsen,   B. Wade.
Both market advisors and researchers have often suggested multiyear rollover hedging as a way to increase producer returns.  This study determines whether rollover hedging can increase expected returns for producers.  For rollover hedging to increase expected returns, futures prices must follow a mean-reverting process.  To test for the existence of mean reversion in agricultural commodity prices, this study uses a longer set of price data and a wider range of test procedures than past research.  With the use of both the return predictability test from long-horizon regression and the variance ratio test, we find that mean reversion does not exist in futures prices for corn, wheat, soybean, soybean oil, and soybean meal.  The findings are consistent with...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Market efficiency; Mean reversion; Random walk; Rollover hedging; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13; G13.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43713

Food Chain Concept in Food and Rural Policy
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bertazzoli,   Aldo; Ghelfi,   Rino; Rivaroli,   Sergio; Samoggia,   Antonella.
Food chain concept was firstly used as a private sector concept applied in order to optimise chain organisation and to create value along the chain. It is now becoming an approach to understand relations within a socio-economic area, both for economic and production aims and to gain a territorial and rural development perspective. Currently food chain policy is often the result of a negotiating process involving different socio-economic policy areas and many stakeholders. The objective of the present paper is to analyse the food chain concept in rural and food policy context, to explore its interconnections with other socio-economic policy areas, and to identify the main policy perspectives in which the concept of food chain was used. A significant number...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Food chain; Food policy; Rural policy; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty; Q18.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59037

Federal Crop and Crop Revenue Insurance Programs: Income Protection
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Smith,   Vincent H.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29227

Factors Explaining Farmers' Insurance Purchase in the Dutch Dairy Sector
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ogurtsov,   Victor A.; Van Asseldonk,   Marcel A.P.M.; Huirne,   Ruud B.M.
This paper analyzed the impact of farm and farmer characteristics on the acceptability to dairy farmers in the Netherlands of an all-risk insurance package and underlying specific categories of insurance coverage. The major farm characteristics considered were structural, operational and financial variables, while farmer age was the major farmer-specific characteristic analyzed. The specific insurance categories reviewed were damage, legal, disability, liability and health insurance. The results suggest that there are common and insurance-specific factors that can improve the design of insurance policies for dairy farmers.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Insurance; Farm characteristics; Risk; Dairy farm; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7774

Risk, Information and Trust in the Food Chain: Factors Explaining  Consumer Willingness to Pay
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Latvala,   Terhi.
The safety of food in the food chain has become an increasingly interesting issue to consumers and the media. It has also become a source of concern, as the amount of information on the risks related to food safety continues to expand. The purpose of this study was to identify factors contributing to consumers’ willingness to pay for increased quality information. The second purpose of this study was to examine what kind of information flows are required to ensure quality and safety in the food chain for beef, and who should produce that information. Studying the willingness to pay of consumers makes it possible to determine whether the consumers consider the quantity of information available on the safety and quality of beef sufficient. The empirical...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100594

Front Materials
Provedor de dados: 31
Includes: Front Cover, Table of Contents, Editorial Information
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; Industrial Organization; International Development; Labor and Human Capital; Land Economics/Use; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Production Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104625

Risk Management Strategies by Australian Farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nguyen,   Nam C.; Wegener,   Malcolm K.; Russell,   Iean W.; Cameron,   Donald; Coventry,   David; Cooper,   Ian M.
Australian farmers operate in one of the most risky environment in the world. They have to cope with various sources of risk in their businesses. This paper reports results of two case studies undertaken to examine the issues of farming risks and risk management strategies in Australia. The first case study found that climate variability, financial risk, marketing risk, and personal risk were regarded as the major sources of farming risk in the Upper Eyre Peninsula of South Australia. The main management strategies used by farmers included diversifying varieties, minimising tillage, minimising area of risky crops and maximising area of the least-risky crop, having high equity, having farm management deposits and other off-farm investments, and "leaving...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Risk management; Strategies; Farmers; Australia; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24295

Current factors of insurance in agriculture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bokusheva,   Raushan; Heidelbach,   Olaf.
This discussion paper is our response to numerous questions and the desire of our counterparts from the CIS countries to receive more up-to-date information about insurance in agriculture. Accordingly, we have tried to shed light on the main aspects of insurance as one tool of risk management in agriculture. Thus, our purpose is to give the reader information on principles and potential of insurance, its main problems and possible solutions. Additionally, this paper provides a comparative overview of the presently most widespread insurance schemes.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risiko; Versicherung; Versicherungsprodukte; Landwirtschaft; Risk; Insurance; Insurance schemes; Agriculture; Слова: риск; Страхование; Страховые схемы; Сельское хозяйство.; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Industrial Organization; International Development; Risk and Uncertainty; G22; Q14; D82.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92167

SUPPLY RESPONSES, RISK AVERSION AND COVARIANCES IN AGRICULTURE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fraser,   Rob W.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1986
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22897

ESTIMATING THE IMPACTS OF DIFFERING PRICE-RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES ON THE NET INCOME OF SALINAS VALLEY LETTUCE PRODUCERS:  A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION APPROACH
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fumasi,   Roland J.
While government safety-net programs are used to mitigate the price risk for commodity producers, limited programs exist for specialty crop producers.  Specialty crop producers utilize forward contracts to reduce downside price risk.  In order to estimate the method of price-risk management, if any, that is preferable to selling at market determined prices, a stochastic simulation model was constructed.  The completed simulation model was used to estimate probability distributions for Salinas Valley net income under different pricing scenarios.  Probabilities of reaching various net income thresholds were compared.  Results indicate that Salinas Valley lettuce producers should maximize profitability by using forward contracts.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36310

Live and Feeder Cattle Options Markets: Returns, Risk, and Volatility Forecasting
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Brittain,   Lee; Garcia,   Philip; Irwin,   Scott H.
This paper examines returns from holding 30- and 90-day call and put positions, and the forecasting performance of implied volatility in the live and feeder cattle options markets. Implied volatility is an upwardly biased and inefficient predictor of realized volatility, with bias most pronounced in live cattle. While significant returns exist from several positions, strategies are strongly affected by drifts in futures prices. However, returns from live cattle puts are persistent, and evidence from 30-day straddle returns indicates the live cattle market overprices volatility. Overpricing is consistent with volatility risk, the effect of which is magnified by extreme market conditions.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Feeder cattle; Live cattle; Options; Returns; Risk; Volatility forecasting; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/105515

AN APPROACH TO THE ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION OF ATTITUDES TO RISK IN AGRICULTURE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bardsley,   Peter; Harris,   Michael.
A simple model is developed relating the debt and asset portfolio of the farm to the production decision, which leads to a small non-linear system of equations. The system is estimated with time-series cross-sectional data from Australian broadacre agriculture using non-linear three-stage least squares. This gives a new method of estimating risk aversion coefficients by using actual behaviour of farmers in a realistic economic environment, rather than games played in artificial situations. Australian farmers are found to be risk averse, and the partial coefficient of risk aversion decreases with wealth and increases with income. The results are consistent with the results of studies by Binswanger in India and elsewhere using a completely different method....
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1987
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22447

PRODUCTION RISK AND CROP INSURANCE IN MALTING BARLEY: A STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE ANALYSIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gustafson,   Cole R.; Wilson,   William W.; Dahl,   Bruce L.
Malt barley is an important specialty crop in the Northern Plains and growers mitigate risk with federally subsidized crop insurance and production contracts.  However, growers face considerable risk due to "“coverage gaps"” in crop insurance that result in uncertain indemnity payments due to uncertainty of their crop meeting contract specifications.  A stochastic dominance model is developed to evaluate alternative risk efficient strategies for growers with differing risk attitudes and production practices (irrigation vs. dryland).  Results show that efficient choices are highly dependent on risk attitudes for dryland growers, but not irrigated growers.  Sensitivities with respect to acceptance risk and level of crop insurance subsidization are presented....
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Malting barley; Stochastic dominance; Stochastic efficiency; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21095

SHARE TENANCY, OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE, AND PREVENTED PLANTING CLAIMS IN CROP INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rejesus,   Roderick M.; Escalante,   Cesar L.; Lovell,   Ashley C.
A theoretical model based on opportunity cost and expected utility principles establishes linkages between the likelihood of prevented planting claims in crop insurance, existing share leasing arrangements and internal farm business structures.  Results of probit estimation procedures indicate that simpler internal business structures and a more dominant farmer-tenant leasing position can increase the probability of submitting a prevented planting claim.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22095

Geographical Diversification in Agriculture:  An Applied Case to Western U.S. Wheat Growers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Larsen,   Ryan A.; Mjelde,   James W.; Klinefelter,   Danny A.; Wolfley,   Jared L.
Yield correlations between 380 different counties are calculated for non-irrigated wheat.  Using this data, a function is estimated that shows the relationship between correlation and changes in geographic and climate data. In addition movement variables are included added to the specification to capture the impact of moving from one production region to another.  A negative relationship was found between changes in latitude, longitude, precipitation, elevation, and temperature.  Correlations and longitude and precipitation showed downward sloping concave relationship, whereas correlations and latitude showed downward sloping convex relationships.  Changes in latitude and longitude are found to have greatest impact on correlation with elasticities of -1.54...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Yield Correlations; Geographical Diversification; Farm Management; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46819

MEASURING FARMERS' RISK ATTITUDES:  A CASE STUDY OF THE EASTERN PLATEAU REGION OF ALGERIA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Belaid,   Abderrezak; Miller,   Stanley F.
A modified experimental approach is used to elicit farmer utility functions in the eastern high plateau of Algeria. Based on the results, the hypothesis is tested that farmers’ risk attitudes are modified by the agroecological zone in which they live, by the crops they grow, and the type of sector (private or socialist) in which they produce. It is concluded that while the studied farmers are risk averse, no intrinsic difference exists in farmers’ attitudes between sectors or sites.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1987
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32227

Minnesota Agricultural Economist 691
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hanson,   Darin K.; Pederson,   Glenn D.
Price Risk Management by Minnesota Farmers
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/13167

ASSESSMENT OF RISK WHEN CONTRACT CROPS ARE INCLUDED AMONG OTHER CROP ALTERNATIVES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kliebenstein,   James B.; Scott,   John T., Jr.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1975
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29507

Critical Thinking: The Best Risk Management Tool; Holistic Decision Making (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Horst,   Shannon.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/106124

Development of private insurance schemes as a means to reduce water overexploitation during drought events. A case study in Campo de Cartagena (Segura River Basin, Spain)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Perez Blanco,   Carlos Dionisio; Gomez Gomez,   Carlos Mario.
Water is a key input in the production of many goods and services and under certain conditions can become a critical limiting factor with significant impacts on regional development. This is the case of many agricultural European Mediterranean basins, where water deficit during drought events is partially covered by illegal abstractions, mostly from aquifers, which are tolerated by the authorities. Groundwater overexploitation for irrigation has created in these areas an unprecedented environmental catastrophe that threatens ecosystems sustainability, urban water supply and the current model of development. Market-based drought insurance systems have the potential to introduce the necessary incentives to reduce overexploitation during drought events and...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Drought insurance; Stochastic models; Groundwater; Agriculture; Risk and Uncertainty; Q15; Q18; Q25; Q51; Q58.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122453

Household Welfare and Multi-Commodity Price Risk:  Evidence from Rural Ethiopia (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bellemare,   Marc F.; Barrett,   Christopher B.; Brown,   Zachary S.; Just,   David R.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48912

CROP INSURANCE AND CROP PRODUCTION: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF MORAL HAZARD AND ADVERSE SELECTION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Quiggin,   John C.; Karagiannis,   Giannis; Stanton,   J.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1993
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22614

WEATHER INSURANCE, CROP PRODUCTION AND SPECIFIC EVENT RISK
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Turvey,   Calum G.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34101

Revisiting the demand of agricultural insurance: The case of Spain
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Garrido,   Alberto; Zilberman,   David.
We use the actual insurance records of 52,300 farmers and 11 years to estimate two sets of insurance demands. We define measures of insurance's expected returns, variance and third moment, based on observed insurance data, and infer the expected returns for those farmers that have never had an indemnity. We estimate several probit models and count models for the insuring vs non-insuring strategies, in which the economic returns of insurance and its two measures of dispersion enter as explanatory variables. Results show that farmers' insurance strategies are largely explained by their actual insurance experience as captured by these three variables. Individuals with loss rations greater than 1 do not show more responsiveness that those facing more balanced...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural insurance; Insurance demand models; Spain; Risk and Uncertainty; G22; Q12; Q14.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9266

Equity Basis Selection in Allocation Environments: An Empirical Analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Aadland,   David; Koplin,   Van.
Successful formation and long-term stability of cooperative ventures is often linked to the perceived fairness of the cost and resource allocations that these ventures employ. Indeed, the lack of a consensus over what basis should be used for gauging equitable allocation can undermine the prospects for collaboration. We use irrigation cost sharing as a context for examining the equity basis selections of cooperative ventures that successfully form and endure. Our analysis reveals that these selections are explained by features of the cooperative environment and inequities in the derived benefits from the irrigation water.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Irrigation; Cost allocation; Equity; Probit model; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117146

An Operational Approach for Evaluating Investment Risk: An Application to the No-Till Transition
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Upadhyay,   Bharat Mani; Young,   Douglas L.
Roy's safety-first rule is used to provide measures popular with farmers of short and long term business risk associated with various no-till transition strategies over an investment horizon. The short run rule provided more sensitivity to inter-year financial risk than other commonly used criteria. Results revealed that speed of adoption influenced the probability of successful transition more than did the sequence of drill acquisition methods. Higher equity and larger farms had a greater chance of transition success. Slow acreage expansion with a custom or rental drill reduces risk until a no-till yield penalty is eliminated.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Investment risk; Monte Carlo simulation; No-till; Rent-purchase; Risk; Safety-first; Technology adoption; Transition strategy; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12958

The Relative Performance of In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Hedging Effectiveness Indicators
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dahlgran,   Roger A.
Hedging effectiveness is the proportion of price risk removed through hedging. Empirical hedging studies typically estimate a set of risk minimizing hedge ratios, estimate the hedging effectiveness statistic, apply the estimated hedge ratios to a second group of data, and examine the robustness of the hedging strategy by comparing the hedging effectiveness for this "out-of-sample" period to the "in-sample" period. This study focuses on the statistical properties of the in-sample and out-of-sample hedging effectiveness estimators. Through mathematical and simulation analysis we determine the following: (a) the R2 for the hedge ratio regression will generally overstate the amount of price risk reduction that can be achieved by hedging, (b) the properly...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Out-of-sample; Post sample; Hedging; Effectiveness; Forecasts; Simulation; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53042

Price-Based vs. Quantity-Based Environmental Regulation under Knightian Uncertainty: An Info-Gap Robust Satisficing Perspective
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Stranlund,   John K.; Ben-Haim,   Yakov.
Conventional wisdom among environmental economists is that the relative slopes of the marginal social benefit and marginal social cost functions determine whether a price-based or quantity-based environmental regulation leads to higher expected social welfare. We revisit the choice between price-based vs. quantity-based environmental regulation under Knightian uncertainty; that is, when uncertainty cannot be modeled with known probability distributions. Under these circumstances, the policy objective cannot be to maximize the expected net benefits of emissions control. Instead, we evaluate an emissions tax and an aggregate abatement standard in terms of maximizing the range of uncertainty under which the welfare loss from error in the estimates of the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14528

Water management development and agriculture in Syria
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Haddad,   George; Szeles,   Ivett; Zsarnoczai,   J. Sandor.
Irrigated agriculture has increased steadily in Syria over the last decades, almost doubling since 1985. This mounting pace has responded to the nation’s food security policy objectives to satisfy the food production needs of an increasing population that features one of the largest growth rates in the world, namely 3,50 percent in 1985 and still 3,39 percent in 2007. Total expenditures for irrigated agriculture accounted for almost 70 percent of all expenditures in agriculture. Sustainable irrigation water policies aimed at increasing the efficiency of water use in agriculture and at conserving water resources by reducing future consumption. The Euphrates River is 2.800 km long and its middle traverses a wide floodplain in Syria, where it is used...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Water utilisation; Water management; Modern irrigation technologies; Benefits of agricultural sector; Governmental supports; Total Renewable Water Resources (TRWR); Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/47546

Modelling Asymmetric Dependence Using Copula Functions: An Application to Value-at-Risk in the Energy Sector
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bastianin,   Andrea.
In this paper I have used copula functions to forecast the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of an equally weighted portfolio comprising a small cap stock index and a large cap stock index for the oil and gas industry. The following empirical questions have been analyzed: (i) are there nonnormalities in the marginals? (ii) are there nonnormalities in the dependence structure? (iii) is it worth modelling these nonnormalities in risk- management applications? (iv) do complicated models perform better than simple models? As for questions (i) and (ii) I have shown that the data do deviate from the null of normality at the univariate, as well as at the multivariate level. When considering the dependence structure of the data I have found that asymmetries show up in their...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Copula functions; Forecasting; Value-At-Risk; Risk and Uncertainty; C32; C52; C53; G17; Q43.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50452

ADAPTIVE PLANNING UNDER PRICE UNCERTAINTY IN PORK PRODUCTION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Plain,   Ronald L.; Williams,   Joseph E.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1981
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30121

Willingness-to-Pay for Attribute Level and Variability: The Case of Mexican Millers’ Demand for Hard Red Winter Wheat
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gallardo,   Rosa Karina; Lusk,   Jayson L.; Holcomb,   Rodney B.; Rayas-Duarte,   Patricia.
In-person interviews were carried out with Mexican millers who were administered a conjoint-type survey designed to incorporate uncertainty in attribute levels. Two methods were used to model millers’ risk preferences: a modified mean-variance approach and an explicit expected utility approach. Controlling for variability, Mexican millers are willing to pay premiums for increases in quality factors such as test weight, protein content, falling number, and dough strength/extensibility. We find millers are not particularly sensitive to changes in the variability of quality characteristics. Out-of-sample forecasts suggest the mean-variance model provides an accurate depiction of actual Mexican imports.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Mean-variance; Mexican wheat market; Moment generating function; Preference elicitation; Wheat quality; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; International Relations/Trade; Marketing; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; C35; C42; Q13.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56646

An Economic Risk Assessment of the Impact on Producers of Removing Quarantine Restrictions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fraser,   Rob W.
This paper contributes to the understanding of the impact of removing quarantine restrictions on the income risk of domestic producers. It develops a model of this impact on a producer's perception of income risk. Four effects of the introduction of imports on the perceived income risk of domestic producers are identified, as well as a range of factors which influence the magnitude of these effects. A numerical analysis evaluates the role of each of these factors in determining the producer's perception of income risk following the introduction of imports. This evaluation provides a range of conclusions relevant to quarantine policy.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123647

RISK ANALYSIS OF CROPPING SYSTEMS USING EXPERIMENTAL CROPPING SYSTEM-FERTILIZER DATA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Helmers,   Glenn A.; Dias,   Weeratilake; Langemeier,   Michael R.; Atwood,   Joseph A.
Using 11 years of experimental crop yields by cropping systems and fertilizer level, a MOTAD frontier was developed.  This analysis allowed yield, cost, and stability interactions arising from crop sequences to be implicitly included.  Target-MOTAD, Safety-First, and undominated stochastic efficient systems were also compared.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20967

Water poverty in the northeastern hill region (India): Potential alleviation through multiple-use water systems: Cross-learnings from Nepal Hills
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sharma,   Bharat R.; Riaz,   M.V.; Pant,   Dhruba; Adhikary,   D.L.; Bhatt,   B.P.; Rahman,   H.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Water poverty index; Construction; Multiple use; Water storage; Farming systems; Villages; Social aspects; Drip irrigation; Nepal; Nagaland; Mon district; Lampong Sheanghah; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Health Economics and Policy; Industrial Organization; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91466

ZONE-BASED GROUP RISK INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wang,   H. Holly.
Current country-based group crop insurance, i.e., Group Risk Plan (GRP), is not an effective risk-reducing tool in counties where natural conditions are different across the area. Using only the historical yield information, a statistical approach is developed to group farmers by their yield similarity rather than linking them based on their association with a particular county. The cases of Washington State wheat farms and Iowa corn farms are the focus of this investigation. Sub-county or cross-county zones (clusters) are identified, and each farm is classified into a cluster where individual farm identification remains unknown. To improve risk-management and cost effectiveness of the crop insurance instrument, we propose implementation of zone-based GRP...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30904

Science Meets Regulation Needs: Case Studies in Agribusiness, with Institutional Innovations
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: de Carvalho,   Bernardo M. Telles Reynold S. Pacheco; Monteiro,   Dinah; Carvalho,   Neiva.
The perception of markets delivering a Pareto optimal solution with distribution of benefits and value creation along the supply chain has been evolving from a theoretical perspective and respective assumptions toward more pragmatic and sophisticated analysis. Food and agricultural production, at farm level, frequently faces great challenges and deviations from theory optimal solutions, mainly when markets do not have the necessary conditions for “perfect functioning”. Institutional innovation and regulations from the supply side and from the demand side have been able to offer solutions, some of them science based. Those examples deserve attention and can offer sound base for improvements in our knowledge about market behaviour and development for...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59040

Optimal Coverage Level Choice with Individual and Area Plans of Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bulut,   Harun; Collins,   Keith J.; Zacharias,   Thomas P.
We theoretically examine a farmer’s coverage demand with area and individual insurance plans as either separate or integrated options. The individual and area losses are assumed to be imperfectly and positively correlated. With actuarially fair rates, the farmer will fully insure with the individual plan and demand no area insurance regardless of the plans being separate or integrated. Under separate plans, free area insurance and the fair rate for individual insurance, area insurance replaces a portion of individual insurance demand. Under integrated plans, free area insurance, and the fair rate for individual insurance, the farmer will over-insure with individual plan and demand additional area insurance.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural risk; Area plans of insurance; Crop insurance; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Industrial Organization; Marketing; Production Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; G22; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103185

ARER Guidelines for Manuscript Submission
Provedor de dados: 31
Inside back cover
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; Industrial Organization; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Labor and Human Capital; Land Economics/Use; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Political Economy; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Public Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55554

Does Crop Insurance Reduce the Need for Cash Reserves in Savings Accounts?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Raulston,   J. Marc; Richardson,   James W.; Outlaw,   Joe L.; Knapek,   George M.
One of the most fundamental and traditional risk management tools available to agricultural producers is a savings account. Cash reserves in savings provide a safety net for producers, allowing financial obligations and living expenses to be met when unexpected shortfalls in income occur. Crop insurance, another risk management tool, likely reduces the cash reserves required to be held in savings as it aids in mitigating risks ranging from total disasters to uncertainties in market conditions.  This study utilizes a stochastic farm level simulation model in a representative farm framework to evaluate the impacts of alternative crop insurance scenarios on levels of savings necessary to maintain target ending cash reserve numbers for producers in major...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Insurance; Multiple Peril Crop Insurance; Crop Revenue Coverage; Stochastic Simulation; Representative Farm; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56413

AGRICULTURAL POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND ANTICIPATORY FIRM LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lagerkvist,   Carl Johan.
This paper investigates, through a dynamic stochastic adjustment model the extent to which an active agricultural policy can be the source of volatility in agricultural investment. It is shown that noise in formulation of agricultural policy has adverse effects even in cases where earlier results would take that investment is increased.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Agricultural Policy; Investment; Agricultural and Food Policy; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; D8; E2; H20; Q18.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21734

Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ritchie,   John W.; Abawi,   G. Yahya; Dutta,   Sunil C.; Harris,   Trevor R.; Bange,   Michael.
Decision‐making in agriculture is carried out in an uncertain environment with farmers often seeking information to reduce risk. As a result of the extreme variability of rainfall and stream‐flows in north‐eastern Australia, water supplies for irrigated agriculture are a limiting factor and a source of risk. The present study examined the use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) when calculating planting areas for irrigated cotton in the northern Murray Darling Basin. Results show that minimising risk by adjusting plant areas in response to SCF can lead to significant gains in gross margin returns. However, how farmers respond to SCF is dependent on several other factors including irrigators’ attitude towards risk.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117862

2007 U.S CORN PRODUCTION RISKS: WHAT DOES HISTORY TEACH US?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Good,   Darrel L.; Irwin,   Scott H.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Financial Economics; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37494

ARPA Subsidies, Unit Choice, and Reform of the U.S. Crop Insurance Program
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Babcock,   Bruce A.; Hart,   Chad E.
The Agricultural Risk Protection Act (ARPA) has largely met its objectives of inducing farmers to increase their use of the crop insurance program. Both insured acreage and coverage levels have increased dramatically in response to ARPA's large increase in premium subsidies. An unintended consequence of the larger subsidies is a dramatic increase in the incentive for farmers to insure their crops under optional units, that is, insurance at the field level rather than at the farm or crop level. The expected rate of return to farmers who choose to invest additional premium dollars to move to optional unit coverage ranges from a low of 61 percent at the 85 percent coverage level to 144 percent at the 65 percent coverage level. This explains why the majority...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Risk Protection Act (ARPA); Crop insurance; Optional units; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18297

THE ROLE OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN MANAGING RISK
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Habtemariam,   Tsegaye; Tameru,   B.; Ahmad,   A.; Nganwa,   D.; Ayanwale,   L.; Beyene,   G.; Robnett,   V.
Paper and PowerPoint Presentation
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32867

Future Agribusiness Challenges: Strategic Uncertainty, Innovation and Structural Change
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Boehlje,   Michael; Roucan-Kane,   Maud; Broring,   Stefanie.
The IFAMR is published by the International Food and Agribusiness Management Association.(IFAMA)  www.ifama.org
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Strategic uncertainty; Innovation; Structural change; Agribusiness; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty; ISSN #: 1559-2448.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119971

Food Safety and Risk Perception in a Changing World
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Roosen,   Jutta; Hansen,   Kristin; Thiele,   Silke.
This paper presents an analysis of food risk perceptions of German consumers over the eleven year period from 1992 to 2002. Using factor analysis, we analyse the respondents general risk attitudes and the specific perception of food safety risks. General risk attitude are described by variables relating to environmental, lifestyle and food risks. Food safety concerns are grouped into concern about use of biotechnology, about residues, about unhealthy eating habits, and about natural contaminants. An ordered probit analysis identifies the characteristics that explain the importance consumers attribute to these different food safety risks. The results reveal that general risk perceptions and knowledge about food safety hazards are highly significant in the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25002

Irrigation Restriction and Biomass Market Interactions: The Case of the Alluvial Aquifer
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Popp,   Michael P.; Nalley,   Lawton Lanier; Vickery,   Gina B.
The U.S. Geological Survey has determined that irrigation in Arkansas’ Delta is unsustainable. This study examines how irrigation restrictions would affect county net returns to crop production. It also considers the effect of planting less water-intensive bioenergy crops—switchgrass and forage sorghum—in the event biofuel markets become a reality. Results suggest that sustainable irrigation restrictions without bioenergy crops would decrease producer returns by 28% in the region. Introducing these alternative crops would both reduce groundwater use and may restore state producer returns, albeit with significant spatial income redistribution to crop production throughout the state.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Biomass crops; Ground water irrigation; Spatial income redistribution; Sustainability; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Financial Economics; Land Economics/Use; Political Economy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q24; Q25; Q32; Q42; O13.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57150

AN INVESTIGATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CONSTRAINT OMISSION AND RISK AVERSION IN FIRM RISK PROGRAMMNG MODELS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Musser,   Wesley N.; McCarl,   Bruce A.; Smith,   G. Scott.
A model with omitted resource constraints is suggested as an alternative to a risk aversion model for explaining economic behavior. This paper uses two standard mathematical programming models to further explore this issue. One model is a standard profit maximization linear programming model and the other is a risk averse quadratic programming model with part of the constraints deleted. Theoretical investigation of these models demonstrates that risk aversion can substitute for omitted resource constraints. A small empirical model is then solved under both formulations. With resource constraints deleted, positive risk aversion is necessary to obtain a similar enterprise organization as under profit maximization with complete constraints. These two...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1986
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29787

Profitability of Irrigated Improved Pecan Orchards in the Southern Plains
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Springer,   Job D.; Swinford,   Wyatt; Rohla,   Charles.
The objective was to determine if an irrigated improved pecan orchard is economical relative to agronomic systems commonly implemented by producers that have access to irrigation.  Results show that the improved pecan orchard is more profitable than competitive enterprises after a twenty year time frame, but is sensitive to pecan price, pecan yield and attitude toward risk.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Profitability; Irrigated; Pecan; Orchard; Southern Plains; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98745

On the Production of Homeland Security Under True Uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Stranlund,   John K.; Field,   Barry C.
Homeland security against possible terrorist attacks involves making decisions under true uncertainty. Not only are we ignorant of the form, place, and time of potential terrorist attacks, we are also largely ignorant of the likelihood of these attacks. In this paper, we conceptualize homeland security under true uncertainty as society's immunity to unacceptable losses. We illustrate and analyze the consequences of this notion of security with a simple model of allocating a fixed budget for homeland security to defending the pathways through which a terrorist may launch an attack and to mitigating the damage from an attack that evades this defense. In this problem, immunity is the range of uncertainty about the likelihood of an attack within which the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14505

URBAN VULNERABILITY IN AFGHANISTAN: CASE STUDIES FROM THREE CITIES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Schutte,   Stefan.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Community/Rural/Urban Development; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14632

The Impacts of Farm Size and Economic Risk on No-Till Rice Whole-Farm Profitability
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Watkins,   K. Bradley; Hignight,   Jeffrey A.; Anders,   Merle M.
This study evaluated the impacts of farm size and stochastic return variability on no-till (NT) rice profitability at the whole-farm level. Mixed integer programming was used to determine optimal machinery complements, fuel consumption, and machinery labor requirements for conventional till (CT) and NT rice-soybean farms of 1200, 2400, and 3600 acres in size. Crop yields, market prices, and prices for key production inputs were simulated to construct stochastic whole-farm net returns for each farm size under CT and NT management, and both first and second degree stochastic dominance analysis were used to rank cumulative distribution functions of whole-farm returns according to specified risk preferences. The results indicate NT farms exhibit second degree...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Mixed integer programming; No-till; Profitability; Rice; Risk; Simulation; Stochastic dominance; Whole-farm; Farm Management; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98733

MODELING CHANGES IN THE U.S. DEMAND FOR CROP INSURANCE DURING THE 1990S
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Serra,   Teresa; Goodwin,   Barry K.; Featherstone,   Allen M.
The crop insurance purchase decision for a group of Kansas farmers is analyzed using data from 1990s—a period that experienced many changes in the federal crop insurance program.  Farm-level data are used. Results indicate a reduction in the elasticity of the demand for crop insurance with respect to premium rates by the end of the decade. This corresponded with a considerable increase in government subsidies by the end of the 1990s. This may also reflect the attractiveness of new revenue insurance products that may have made producers less sensitive to premium changes.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22019

Risk Perceptions of Arsenic in Tap Water and Consumption of Bottled Water
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jakus,   Paul M.; Shaw,   W. Douglass; Nguyen,   To N.; Walker,   Mark.
The demand for bottled water has increased rapidly over the past decade, but bottled water is extremely costly compared to tap water.  The convenience of bottled water surely matters to consumers, but are others factors at work?  This manuscript examines whether purchases of bottled water are associated with the perceived risk of tap water.  All of the past studies on bottled water consumption have used simple scale measures of perceived risk that do not correspond to risk measures used by risk analysts.  We elicit a probability-based measure of risk and find that as perceived risks rise, expenditures for bottled water rise.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q25; Q53; I12.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49221

Recent Developments in Unit Root Tests and Historical Crop Yields
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zapata,   Hector O.; Maradiaga,   David Isaias; Pujula,   Aude Liliana; Dicks,   Michael R.
This study conducts an investigation on the application of classical unit-root tests using parametric tests (the augmented Dickey-Fuller, 1979 – ADF), and nonparametric tests (Phillips and Perron, 1988—PP) to corn and soybean yields in the Delta states using county-level data from 1961 to 2009.  The main concern of the paper is to assess what would be drawn about nonstationarity in crop yields using these tests versus using modified versions of these tests (Ng and Perron, 2001) that are assumed to solve size and power problems associated with the ADF and PP tests.  The investigation focuses on methodological aspects of the classical tests, uncovers the nature of filtered yields often needed prior to density estimation, sheds light on the effect of lag...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop yields; Nonstationarity; Unit-roots; Density estimation; Production Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103871

Five Year Review (Power Point Presentation)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Glauber,   Joseph W.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33335

Willingness to Pay for Weather Derivatives by Australian Wheat Farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Simmons,   Phil; Edwards,   Miriam; Byrnes,   Joel.
A theoretical optimal hedging model is developed to determine potential demand from Australian farmers for a hedging tool to remove the economic consequences of climate related variability in wheat yield. In the past, financial instruments have been developed to hedge price risk on capital markets; however, in more recent times new financial instruments, weather derivatives, have been developing that hedge the volumetric risk associated with unfavourable weather. Weather derivatives have the ability to effectively hedge weather related volume risk for the agricultural, mining, energy and manufacturing industries, while also providing a risk management tool for construction firms and special events organisers, although there are still many hurdles to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Weather derivatives; Risk; Hedging; Wheat; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9262

RISK SHARING AND INFORMATION: THEORY AND MEASUREMENT IN VILLAGE ECONOMIES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ligon,   Ethan.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Community/Rural/Urban Development; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1996
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25091

Impact of Risk and Time Preferences on Responses to Forest Tenure Land Reform:  Empirical Evidence from Fujian, China
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sullivan,   Karen A.; Uchida,   Emi; Xu,   Jintao.
This research examines the effect of risk and time preferences on forest management responses to forest tenure land reforms in Fujian, China that began in 2002. The different extent of the reform and its different timing across regions provide a natural experiment to test how time and risk preferences affect a households’ forest investment response to the reform. Empirically, we combine original field experiment data on time and risk preferences collected among 103 households with an original panel survey data set collected among the same 103 households, which contains data for three years: 2000 (before the reform), 2005 and 2008 (after the reform) in a difference-in-differences framework. We examine three measures of forest management activity, including:...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Tenure reform; Property rights; Risk preference; Time preference; Poverty; China; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Labor and Human Capital; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty; Q2; D8; D9; D13; J22; Q15.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61536

ASYMMETRIC PRICE ADJUSTMENTS AND BEHAVIOR UNDER RISK: EVIDENCE FROM PERUVIAN AGRICULTURAL MARKETS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Aguero,   Jorge M.
Most studies measuring asymmetric adjustments in vertical price transmissions fail to provide empirical support to explain such behavior. The literature invokes theoretical models, which derive asymmetric behavior based on variables that are difficult to measure such as oligopolies' coordination policies, market imperfections or menu costs. Therefore, with no empirical support explaining the asymmetries, these studies leave no room for policy implementation. In this paper I relate asymmetric price responses to a theory of behavior under risk driven by the perishable rate of the goods. Retailers of a perishable good facing an increment in the wholesale price may decide not to increase their prices for fear of being left with a spoiled product. Using three...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20394

Investment planning under uncertainty and flexibility: the case of a purchasable sales contract
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Musshoff,   Oliver; Hirschauer,   Norbert.
Investment decisions are not only characterised by irreversibility and uncertainty but also by flexibility with regard to the timing of the investment. This paper describes how stochastic simulation can be successfully integrated into a backward recursive programming approach in the context of flexible investment planning. We apply this hybrid approach to a marketing question from primary production which can be viewed as an investment problem: should grain farmers purchase sales contracts which guarantee fixed product prices over the next 10 years? The model results support the conclusion from dynamic investment theory that it is essential to take simultaneously account of uncertainty and flexibility.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Dynamic programming; Flexibility; Investment; Sales contract; Stochastic simulation; Uncertainty; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117741

Calibrating CAT bonds for Mexican earthquakes
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Haerdle,   Wolfgang; Cabrera,   Brenda Lopez.
The study of natural catastrophe models plays an important role in the prevention and mitigation of disasters. After the occurrence of a natural disaster, the reconstruction can be financed with catastrophe bonds (CAT bonds) or reinsurance. This paper examines the calibration of a real parametric CAT bond for earthquakes that was sponsored by the Mexican government. The calibration of the CAT bond is based on the estimation of the intensity rate that describes the earthquake process from the two sides of the contract, the reinsurance and the capital markets, and from the historical data. The results demonstrate that, under specific conditions, the financial strategy of the government, a mix of reinsurance and CAT bond, is optimal in the sense that it...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: CAT bonds; Reinsurance; Earthquakes; Doubly Stochastic Poisson Process; Trigger mechanism; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9265

Agricultural Arbitrage and Risk Preferences
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pope,   Rulon D.; LaFrance,   Jeffrey T.; Just,   Richard E.
A structural inter-temporal model of agricultural asset arbitrage equilibrium is developed and applied to agriculture in the North-Central region of the U.S. The data is consistent with unifying level of risk aversion. The levels of risk aversion are more plausible than previous estimates for agriculture. However, the standard arbitrage equilibrium is rejected; perhaps this is due to the period and the shortness of the period studied.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7189

Stepping stones for biological invasion: A bioeconomic model of transferable risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Warziniack,   Travis; Finnoff,   David C.; Bossenbroek,   Jonathan; Shogren,   Jason F.; Lodge,   David.
Herein we model the widespread dispersal and management of an invasive species as a weak-link public good. The risk of introduction is driven in part by economic activity, is influenced by policies directed at the risk, and economic activity responds/adapts to the risk. Framed around recent introductions and rapid spread of dreissenid mussels in the Western United States, we find three key results. First, partial equilibrium estimates of welfare loss are significantly overestimated relative to general equilibrium estimates. If ecosystem services and market goods are substitutes the partial equilibrium bias is greater than if they are compliments. Second, well-intended policies do not necessarily reduce overall risk; risk reduction actions can transfer risk...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Bioeconomic; Invasive species; Risk; Weak-link; Welfare; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q2; Q26; Q57.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60957

Comparative Risk Projects: A Methodology for Cross-Project Analysis of Human Health Risk Rankings
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Konisky,   David M.
Public agencies at all levels of government have conducted comparative risk projects to inform environmental priority-setting efforts. Using the analytic policy tool, comparative risk analysis (CRA), most projects have ranked environmental problems in terms of the relative risks they pose to human health and other endpoints. Differences in project design complicate cross-project analysis of the risk ranking results. This paper discusses important project design variations that complicate cross-project analysis and presents a methodology that provides a simple, straightforward approach for comparing risk ranking results that overcomes some of these project-specific idiosyncrasies. The methodology provides a mechanism to help practitioners of CRA determine...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Comparative risk analysis; Human health risk rankings; Environmental health priorities; Cross-project analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10474

AN EVALUATION OF RISK ANALYSIS AS APPLIED TO AGRICULTURAL BIOTECHNOLOGY (WITH A CASE STUDY OF GMO LABELING)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Caswell,   Julie A.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26006

BIOTECHNOLOGY IN AGRICULTURE: IMPLICATIONS FOR FARM-LEVEL RISK MANAGEMENT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Makki,   Shiva S.; Somwaru,   Agapi; Harwood,   Joy L.
This study examines the risks associated with adoption of biotech crops and discusses their implications for risk management at the farm level. We develop an analytical risk evaluation matrix framework to illustrate changes in production and marketing risks of biotech and non-biotech crops. Price uncertainty generated by consumer concerns is the major risk facing biotech farmers, while cross-pollination with biotech crops and preservation of non-biotech status are major concerns for non-biotech farmers. Improved market infrastructure to handle biotech products and modification of the current risk management tools to accommodate new risks are essential in reducing the farm-level risks.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Biotechnology; Genetically modified organisms; Marketing risks; Production risks; Risk evaluation matrix; Risk management; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14683

Assessing farmers' risk attitudes based on economic, social, personal, and environmental sources of risk: evidence from Sweden
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lagerkvist,   Carl Johan.
This paper examines farmers'’ risk attitudes, obtained by responses to sources of risk, using an attitudinal scale approach. Economic, social, personal, and environmental sources of risk are considered in the measurement of risk attitudes. In addition, use of various types of expertise and information sources are included as risk management tools. Inferences are drawn from results of a survey mailed to a representative random sample of 500 farmers drawn from the population of medium to large farms (by acreage) in southern Sweden. Regarding the adequacy of the results it was found that a mail survey produces results similar to earlier results obtained by personal interview. Farmers'’ responses to the attitudinal scales showed levels of communal variation...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19361

Factors Influencing Wheat Yield and Variability: Evidence from Manitoba, Canada
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Carew,   Richard; Smith,   Elwin G.; Grant,   Cynthia.
Production functions to explain regional wheat yields have not been studied extensively in the Canadian prairies. The objective of this study is to employ a Just-Pope production function to examine the relationship between fertilizer inputs, soil quality, biodiversity indicators, cultivars qualifying for Plant Breeders’ Rights (PBR), and climatic conditions on the mean and variance of spring wheat yields. Using regional-level wheat data from Manitoba, Canada, model results show nitrogen fertilizer, temporal diversity, and PBR wheat cultivars are associated with increased yield variance. Mean wheat yield is reduced by the proportion of land in wheat, the interaction of growing temperature and precipitation, and spatial diversity. By contrast, higher soil...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Climate; Fertilizer; Manitoba; Plant Breeders’ Rights; Production risk; Wheat; Yield; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; O18; Q16.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56649

Energy efficiency, innovation, and job creation in California
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Roland-Holst,   David W.
Global climate change poses significant risks to the California economy. Recognizing and responding to these threats, Governor Schwarzenegger signed Executive Order #S-3-05 (Schwarzenegger 2005) which called for a 30 percent reduction below business-as-usual of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 and 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. In September 2006, the California legislature passed and Governor Schwarzenegger signed into law the historic Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32), which mandates a first-in-the-nation limit on emissions that cause global warming. In June 2006, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) released a “Draft Scoping Plan” – the policy roadmap to meet the emissions reduction target of 169 Million Metric Tons of Carbon (MMTCO2)...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Energy; Sustainability; Climate change; Economic policy; Energy policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46718

Risk, Overconfidence and Production in a Competitive Equilibrium
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Just,   David R.; Cao,   Ying; Zilberman,   David.
Previous studies have found underestimation of risk, or overconfidence, to be pervasive. In this paper, we model overconfidence as a reduction in perceived variance. We generalize the analysis of Sandmo and examine the effects of competition on firms displaying overconfidence. Cases for both competitive equilibrium and imperfect competition are investigated. We show that overconfidence may strictly dominate rationality in a competitive market by leading risk averse producers to invest greater amounts and produce more. This leads to a higher average profit, and greater variance of profits, leaving the producer a greater probability of surviving competitive pressures. Despite the greater variance of profits, if enough producers underestimate their risk, they...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Overconfidence; Misperception; Production; Competition; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49161

WEATHER-BASED ADVERSE SELECTION AND THE U.S. CROP INSURANCE PROGRAM:  THE PRIVATE INSURANCE COMPANY PERSPECTIVE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ker,   Alan P.; McGowan,   Pat.
Surprisingly, investigations of adverse selection have focused only on farmers. Conversely, this article investigates if insurance companies, not farmers, can generate excess rents from adverse selection activities. Currently political forces fashioning crop insurance as the cornerstone of U.S. agricultural policy make our analysis particularly topical. Focusing on El Nino/La Nina and winter wheat in Texas, we simulate out-of-sample reinsurance decisions during the 1978 through 1997 crop years while reflecting the realities imposed by the risk-sharing arrangement between the insurance companies and the federal government. The simulations indicate that economically and statistically significant excess rents may be garnered by insurance companies through...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30907

THE ROLE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES IN CROP MARKETING AND RISK MANAGEMENT: A PRELIMINARY REPORT OF SURVEY RESULTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pennings,   Joost M.E.; Good,   Darrel L.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Gomez,   Jennifer K.
The purpose of this report is to provide a preliminary summary of the results of a survey designed to help answer the questions about subscriber use of market advisory services.  Importantly, this research is a cooperative partnership between the University of Illinois and the Data Transmission Network. The survey participants are commercial producers of major grain, oilseed and fiber crops, representing important agricultural areas of the US.  The survey has three broad objectives, including 1) how US producers perceive the riskiness of various aspects of farming; 2) how US producers manage farm business risk, and 3) how US producers select and use market advisory services.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14772

Reconsidering risk management in the farm safety net: a perspective for 2013 (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Smith,   Vincent H.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60373

Uncertainty in Spanish Organic Products: A Global Analysis from Consumer to Entrepreneurs
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Briz,   Teresa; de Felipe,   Isabel.
The organic market is a very particular one. Starting from the premise that organic products are confidence and credibility products which cannot be easily differentiated from the rest, we find that consumers face a risk when purchasing them. In Spain, the marketing chain does not follow the conventional stages in most of the cases, so there is always some uncertainty about how the products will be sold. In addition, the great majority of the Spanish organic production is marketed abroad. In this paper we show some of the results of an investigation project in this topic.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Organic; Risk; Chain; Producer; Consumer; Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7735

Hedging Alberta Government's Oil and Gas Revenue: Is Acting Like a Farmer a Viable Strategy?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hotz,   Joffre; Unterschultz,   James R.
The provincial government of Alberta in Canada experiences significant annual revenue variability arising from changes in crude oil and natural gas prices. This research evaluated whether Alberta’s non-renewable revenue risk could be managed using a derivatives hedging program. Results from a historical hedging simulation approach suggested that such a program would not have been the most effective method of managing revenue risk over the period of 1995-96 to 2003-04. Total impacts of hedging would have varied from Can-$8 Billion to Can $6 Billion over this time period. These results suggest the Alberta government explore alternative methods to manage non-renewable resource revenue risk.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Government Hedging; Risk Hedging; Public Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q480; G11.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91401

THE POSSIBILITY OF A PRIVATE CROP INSURANCE MARKET: THE THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Krogmeier,   Joseph L.; Wang,   H. Holly.
The theoretical foundation for risk pooling in insurance has heavily depend on the independence assumption of losses, which is severely violated in crop insurance.  A weaker condition, asymptotic nonpositive correlation can also lead to risk pooling and is satisfied by yield losses.  Therefore, private insurance and reinsurance markets may work.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20902

FUTURES MARKETS AND LOW INCOME COUNTRY RISK MANAGEMENT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tschirley,   David L.
To many people, futures trading is a little understood and rather suspicious activity.  The word most often associated with this trading is "speculation", the idea being that most of those involved in futures markets are gamblers in a high stakes game seeking profit at the expense of those outside the game.  Any relationship between futures markets and cash markets is generally seen in a negative light - futures trading causing "speculative booms" which distort cash markets and harm many honest traders not directly involved in futures.  The idea that futures trading might be a valuable risk management tool for farmers, processors, and other market participants is generally neither understood nor readily accepted.  This paper is directed toward...
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1987
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11093

Farming profitably in a changing climate: a risk management approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Grant,   Colin; Knight,   Catherine; Nation,   Eloise; Barratt,   David.
Climate science has made enormous progress over the last two decades in understanding the nature of earth's climate and the changes that are taking place. Under climate change projections, we can say with some confidence that the Australian climate will continue to become hotter, and temperature-related extreme events are likely to increase in frequency. However, we cannot yet project with any reasonable level of confidence changes to rainfall and the occurrence of drought.  So although there is strong evidence for the reality of climate change, there is still considerable uncertainty associated with projections of precisely how climate change will unfold in the future, particularly at regional and local scales where most farming management decisions are...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Risk management; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9255

Volatile world market prices for dairy products - how do they affect domestic price formation: The German cheese market
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Weber,   Sascha A.; Salamon,   Petra; Hansen,   Heiko.
Since the stepwise reduction of intervention prices combined with watered down conditions and suspended export refunds, respectively, the EU dairy industry faces new challenges regarding wild price fluctuations originally caused in third countries. In the past, the EU domestic market was insulated as far as possible from world markets. However, today global prices could affect prices even at the level of consumers, but more directly at the level milk producers. Volatility noticeable increased with the price peak in 2007, followed by the drop in 2008, and a new price boost in 2010. Additionally, reduced security in marketing of butter and skimmed milk powder led to higher processing share of cheese which is not only exported but also increasingly consumed...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Price transmission; Cointegration; Granger-causality; Dairy; Risk and Uncertainty; C1; E3; E6; F3; Q1.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122542

Beef Cow Inventory Response: An Attempt to Apply the Adaptive Risk Model
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Harrison,   Ian.
An analysis of variations in the annual inventory of beef cows and heifers at the regional level in New South Wales using Just's adaptive risk model is reported. The State has been divided into six relatively homogeneous regions for the purposes of the study. Wherever significant coefficient estimates are obtained, inventories in the various regions are positively related to expected beef price and the variance of prices of alternative commodities and negatively related to expected prices of alternative commodities and the variance of beef price. Some of the limitations of the adaptive risk model in analysing the beef industry are discussed.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1982
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12240

Spatio-temporal Risk and Severity Analysis of Soybean Rust in the United States
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bekkerman,   Anton; Goodwin,   Barry K.; Piggott,   Nicholas E.
Soybean rust is a highly mobile infectious disease and can be transmitted across short and long distances.  Soybean rust is estimated to cause yield losses that can range between 1%-25%.  An analysis of spatio-temporal infection risks within the United States is performed through the use of a unique data set.  Observations from over 35,000 field-level inspections between 2005 and 2007 are used to conduct a county-level analysis.  Statistical inferences are derived by employing zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models.  In addition, the model is adjusted to account for potential endogeneity between inspections and soybean rust finds.  Past soybean rust finds and inspections in the county and in the surrounding counties, weather and overwintering...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Insurance contracts; Risk analysis; Soybean rust; Zero-inflated model; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46564

Cost and benefits of using best management practices to control non-point sources of pollution under environmental and economic uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rodriguez,   Hector German; Popp,   Jennie S. Hughes; Gbur,   Edward E.; Chaubey,   Indrajeet.
The economy of northwest Arkansas, including the Lincoln Lake watershed (a sub-watershed of the Illinois River), relies greatly upon livestock and poultry production. The supply of production by-products is increasingly under scrutiny as one of the potential sources of water pollution in the region. In light of the recent economic crisis, methodologies that help producers to evaluate the environmental and economic impacts of several practices before implementing them may be a cost-effective means of increasing BMP adoption. This study uses stochastic dominance techniques to evaluate, environmentally and economically, ten best management practices (BMPs) combinations to lessen water pollution in the Lincoln Lake watershed. All BMP combinations analyzed were...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Nonpoint pollution; Watershed; Best management practices; Risk analysis; Stochastic dominance; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q25; Q53.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103344

The Economics of Inaction on Climate Change: A Sensitivity Analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ackerman,   Frank; Finlayson,   Ian J.
Economic models of climate change often take the problem seriously, but paradoxically conclude that the optimal policy is to do almost nothing about it. We explore this paradox as seen in the widely used DICE model. Three aspects of that model, involving the discount rate, the assumed benefits of moderate warming, and the treatment of the latest climate science, are sufficient to explain the timidity of the model's optimal policy recommendation. With modifications to those three points, DICE shows that the optimal policy is a much higher and rapidly rising marginal carbon price; that higher carbon price has a greater effect on physical measures of climate impacts. Our modifications exhibit nonlinear interactions; at least at low discount rates, there is...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Financial Economics; Political Economy; Public Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37277

Specification and estimation of heterogeneous risk preference
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Guan,   Zhengfei; Wu,   Feng.
In this paper we specify and estimate producers’ risk preference using farm data. We allow heterogeneous risk preference across individuals and propose a specification to model the heterogeneity. We base farmers’ decision making on a utility maximization framework and incorporate both market and production risk in farmers’ decision making. We do not assume any specific utility function or distribution of risk. The empirical application to farm level production data shows that risk preference does vary among individuals; demographic and institutional factors have significant effect on producers’ risk attitude.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk Preference; Heterogeneity; Production Risk; Price Risk; Demographics; Subsidy; GMM; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51804

Safe Minimum Standards in Dynamic Resource Problems -- Conditions for Living on the Edge of Risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Margolis,   Michael; Naevdal,   Eric.
Safe Minimum Standards (SMSs) have been advocated as a policy rule for environmental problems where uncertainty about risks and consequences are thought to be profound. This paper explores the rationale for such a policy within a dynamic framework and derives conditions for when SMSs can be summarily dismissed as a policy choice and for when SMSs can be defended as an optimal policy based on standard economic criteria. We have determined that these conditions can be checked with quite limited information about damages and risks. In order to analyze the SMSs in a dynamic setting, we have developed a method for solving optimal control problems where the state space is divided into risky and non-risky subsets.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Safe minimum standards; Optimal control; Critical zone; Threshold effects; Mixed risk spaces; Risk and Uncertainty; C61; Q20; Q30.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10568

Simulated ACRE Payments and Risk Reduction Point to Midwest as a Potential Winner
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vocke,   Gary; Allen,   Edward W.; Price,   J. Michael.
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121432

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF A PRINCIPAL-AGENT MODEL TO ASSESS RISK SHIFTING AND BARGAINING POWER IN COMMODITY MARKETING CHANNELS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kuiper,   W. Erno; Kuwornu,   John K.M.; Pennings,   Joost M.E.
We apply the classic agency model to investigate risk shifting in an agricultural marketing channel, using time series analysis. We show that if the principal is risk-neutral and the agent is risk-averse instead of risk-neutral, then a linear contract can still be optimal if the fixed payment is negative. Empirical results for the Dutch potato marketing channel indicate that while fixed payments to farmers (agents) have decreased over time, even to negative levels, the incentive intensity has approximately doubled, and the risk premium the farmers ask for has remained considerable. These results imply that risk has shifted from wholesalers, processors, and retailers to farmers; we argue that this shift could be the consequence of chain reversal, i.e., the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22046

Commodity Markets: Rational Expectations in Markets With Irrational Investors
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wong,   Teddy T.; Smith,   Aaron D.
The "financialization" of commodity markets have become a concern for policy makers and market participants.  What was once a market for the hedging of holding physical commodities has expanded to become a market for the diversification of financial assets.  When financial assets diversification goals are decoupled from the fundamental factors that affect producers and consumers of physical goods futures markets may not be as efficient in aggregating information concerning the economics of the underlying commodity.  Theoretical understanding of whether commodity futures market function well under exogenous shifts in demand for futures contracts depend on our assumptions of how market participants behave, including their level of risk aversion.  This paper...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Commodity; Futures; Financialization; Competitive storage; Rational expectations; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61526

Optimal Crop-Insurance Strategies under Climate Variability: Contrasting Insurer and Farmer Interests
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cabrera,   Victor E.; Solis,   Daniel; Letson,   David.
This study analyzes the potential synergies and conflicts of interest between farmers and insurers in the selection of an optimal crop insurance contract. Special attention is given to how climate information influences this decision-making process. To do so, we consider a representative 40 hectares, rainfed, cotton-peanut farm located in Jackson County in Florida. Our results show that year-to-year ENSO-based climate variability affects farmers’ income and insurers’ gains according to crop insurance contracts. Additionally, introduction of ENSO-based climate forecasts presents a significant impact on the selection of a particular contract. We conclude that insurers and farmers can bridge their divergent interests by improving their understanding of the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9708

Hail Insurance and Pesticide use in French agriculture: an empirical analysis of multiple risks management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chakir,   Raja; Hardelin,   Julien.
This paper investigates the determinants of rapeseed hail insurance and pesticide use decisions using individual panel data set of French farms covering the period from 1993 to 2004. Economic theory suggests that insurance and prevention decisions are not independent due to risk reduction and/or moral hazard effects. Statistical tests show that the pesticide use and hail insurance demand are endogenous to each other. An econometric model involving two simultaneous equations with a mixed censored/continuous dependent variables is then estimated. Estimation results show that rapeseed insurance demand has a positive and significant effect on pesticide use and vice versa. Insurance demand is also positively influenced by the yield’s coefficient of variation...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114312

DISTRIBUTIONS OF INDEMNITIES FOR CROP-INSURANCE PLANS: WITH APPLICATION TO GRAIN CROPS IN NEW SOUTH WALES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Battese,   George E.; Francisco,   Emilio M.
A review of crop-insurance schemes is followed by a discussion of a guaranteed-yield, crop-insurance plan. General formulae for the distribution function and mathematical expectation of indemnities for the insurance plan are presented in terms of the distribution of crop yields. Three special cases are considered in which the original yields, the square root of yields, and the logarithm of yields are normally distributed.  The insurance plan is applied on a regional basis for wheat and sorghum production in N.S.W. Given distributional information on the crops obtained from a simulation model, expected indemnities are calculated for four different insurance plans.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1977
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22485

AN ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF ENSO (EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) ON GLOBAL CROP YIELDS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ferris,   John N.
Forecasts of global crop yields prior to planting have generally been single values, based on entirely past trends.  Regression analysis testing a combination of data from ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) and ARMA models suggests that yield forecasting errors can be reduced, generating more normal distributions of these errors.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21517

Perceived Market Risks and Strategic Risk Management of Food Manufactures: Empirical Results from the German Brewing Industry
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Theuvsen,   Ludwig; Niederhut-Bollmann,   Christoph.
The food industry is currently facing huge structural changes, such as growing concentration ratios and degrees of internationalization and as well as the reorganizations of food supply chains. Such developments do not only contribute to growing market risks but also require strategic reorientations on the part of food manufacturers. So far, risk management and strategic planning have been two fairly separated theoretical strands. In this paper we blend both schools of thought and analyze food manufacturers' perceived market risks and strategic risk management of food manufacturers. Empirical Our data stem from large-scale empirical research in the German brewing industry.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Brewing industry; Market risks; Risk management; Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7729

Hog Insurance Adoption and Suppliers' Discrimination: A Bivariate Probit Model with Partial Observability
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cao,   Ying; Zhang,   Yuehua.
This paper explores the factors that impact insurance choices. Specially designed survey questions allow one to fully observe the demand tendency by the farmers and partially observe the supply tendency by the insurance company. A joint estimation of insurance decision by both supply and demand sides suggested that factors performing different roles in affecting insurance participation game. Farmer’s age and education have positive impact on insurance demand, but are indifference to the insurance providers. Insurance suppliers care more about farmers’ experience in the field, but this experience occasionally results in overconfidence for the farmers and hence, impedes insurance purchasing. Production scales, proxy by sow inventory, is put more weight by...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Livestock Insurance Choices; Bivariate Probit; Partial Observability; Agribusiness; International Development; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; C35; D13; Q12.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103158

Towards a Generalizable Measure of the Value of a Change in Pesticide Use
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sydorovych,   Olha; Marra,   Michele C.
A risk index system combining information on different environmental and health risks of pesticides is developed to evaluate the impact of Roundup Ready (RR) soybean adoption on pesticide use.  A data set obtained from a survey of U.S. farmers indicates that on average adoption of RR soybeans results in reduced toxicity of herbicides.  The contingent valuation method is used to estimate the value to the farmers of additional herbicide safety.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19375

USING DATA MINING TO DETECT ANOMALOUS PRODUCER BEHAVIOR:  AN ANALYSIS OF SOYBEAN PRODUCTION AND THE FEDERAL CROP INSURANCE PROGRAM
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Olson,   Stacey; Little,   Bertis B.; Lovell,   Ashley C.
The analysis was conducted on the USDA's Risk Management Agency insurance data and NRCS Land Resource Regions from 1994 - 2001 to assist RMA in improving program integrity.  The objective is to develop a data-mining algorithm that identifies anomalous producers and counties within LRRs based upon the percentage of acres harvested.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35223

Do Farm Programs Explain Mean and Variance of Technical Efficiency? Stochastic Frontier Analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ranjan,   Rahul; Shaik,   Saleem; Mishra,   Ashok K.
Past literature has examined the importance of farm programs on the volatility and returns on general and agriculture economic growth.  The objective of this study was to assess the impact of farm program payments on technical efficiency. The study used aggregate state level panel data from the U.S agricultural sector.  Results indicate production increasing with increasing units of inputs. Results from this study indicate that farm program payments play an important role in technical efficiency. For example, farm program payments indicate a negative and positive effect on mean and variance of technical efficiency in the long-run and short-run, respectively
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56365

Drought policy: a graphical analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Quiggin,   John C.; Chambers,   Robert G.
The standard approach to modelling production under uncertainty has relied on the concept of the stochastic production function. In the present paper, it is argued that a state‐contingent production model is more flexible and realistic. The model is applied to the problem of drought policy.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117961

COMMODITY BONDS:  A POTENTIAL RISK MANAGEMENT INSTRUMENT FOR CAPITAL CONSTRAINED COMMODITY PRODUCERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ball,   Richard J.
The commodity-linked bond offers a potential means for producers of primary goods both to raise capital and to hedge against output price risk.  Commodity bonds are distinguished from conventional bonds in that their return structure is denominated in quantities of the underlying commodity.  Optimal levels of bond issues and commodity production are derived, first for producers whose only source of capital is the revenue raised by issuing bonds, and then for producers who can raise capital either by issuing bonds or by borrowing commercially.  The models used are extensions of the standard models of futures market hedging.  Relatively less risk averse producers are found to be unwilling to pay the premium for transferring the risk implicit in bond sales,...
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1988
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10982

Harvested Roughage and Rangeland Production Risk Management in Montana - Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Johnson,   James B.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29214

Missouri Representative Farms: Mid-Year Baseline Outlook
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zimmel,   Peter.
This is an abbreviated, mid-year report containing updated financial tables and risk graphs for Missouri Representative Farms.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42179

Precautionary wealth among U.S farm households
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dedah,   Cheikhna O.; Mishra,   Ashok K.
Using a cross sectional farm-level data we find that farm households who face higher income uncertainty save more and accumulate more wealth. Precautionary savings is about 6 percent of the total farm household wealth.  In addition to precautionary saving, and consistent with theory we found that the age, education, occupation, and the number of acres operated are all important factors that influence wealth accumulation by U.S farm households.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Consumer/Household Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Precautionary  savings; Wealth; Income risk; Farm households.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46606

AGRICULTURAL BANK EFFICIENCY AND THE ROLE OF MANAGERIAL RISK PREFERENCES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Armah,   Bernard Kaku Ndarku; Park,   Timothy A.
We investigate the objectives of agricultural bank managers and their impacts on bank efficiency.  If managers are non-neutral toward risk, then banks may appear inefficient when they are not.  We find non-neutrality toward risk and efficiency gains due to firm size, loan shares, asset shares, and share of market deposits.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20909

RISK ASSESSMENT FOR FOODBORNE ILLNESS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gardner,   Ian A.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33070

Market Valuation and Risk Assessment of Canadian Banks
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Liu,   Ying; Papakirykos,   Eli; Yuan,   Mingwei.
This paper applies the asset valuation model developed by Rabinovitch (1989) to the six largest Canadian banks. The model is an extension of the Merton (1977a) option-pricing model with the incorporation of stochastic interest rates. We then introduce a measure of distance-to default, Z-score. Our results indicate that the market value of bank assets is almost always below its book value and that Canadian banks have a very low insolvency risk over time, except for 1982 and 1983. We also find that both the market valuation of the bank assets and the z-score of these Canadian banks demonstrate similar regime switches in the late 1990s, which may be related to regulatory changes during the 1990s.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Asset pricing; Financial institution; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; G12; G21.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50281

TRADABLE RISK PERMITS TO PREVENT FUTURE INTRODUCTIONS  OF ALIEN INVASIVE SPECIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Horan,   Richard D.; Lupi,   Frank.
Alien invasive species contribute to biodiversity loss and cause billions of dollars of economic damage in the Great Lakes. We examine the design and efficiency of a tradeable permit system for biological pollution due to alien species that invade the Great Lakes through the ballast water of commercial ships.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22111

Table of contents
Provedor de dados: 31
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; International Development; Land Economics/Use; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123775

Loss Aversion and Reference Points in Contracts
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Just,   David R.; Wu,   Steven Y.
Loss aversion has become the dominant alternative to expected utility theory for modeling choice under uncertainty. The setting of the base payment in contracts provides an interesting application of referenced based decision theory. The impact of loss aversion on contract structure depends critically on whether reservation opportunities (outside options) are evaluated with respect to the reference point implied in the contract.  We show that when reservation opportunities are independent of the reference point, reward contracts are optimal.  However, when reservation opportunities are evaluated against the reference point, then penalty contracts are more efficient.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty; L14; D81; D21; D82.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28727

PRODUCTION, PRICE AND RISK FACTORS IN CHANNEL CATFISH FARMING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hanson,   Gregory D.; Martin,   Neil R., Jr.; Flynn,   John B.
The effects of several production/management, price and risk factors upon channel catfish profitability are analyzed with a multiperiod mixed-integer linear programming model.  Factors analyzed include pond size and optimal stocking rates, alternate levels and trends in catfish prices, pond production losses and level of family consumption withdrawals.  Model results indicate that channel catfish offer the potential to significantly increase farm rates of return while providing an avenue of intensive farm growth, without expanding the land base of the farm.  However, the long range financial success of the firm was very sensitive to several of the management and risk factors examined.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1984
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29618

Modeling Certainty-Adjusted Willingness to Pay for Ecosystem Service Improvement  from Agriculture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ma,   Shan; Lupi,   Frank; Swinton,   Scott M.; Chen,   Huilan.
The public demand for ecosystem services measured by willingness to pay (WTP) in contingent valuation studies provides important information for designing Payment-for-Ecosystem-Service (PES) programs. However, the hypothetical markets for contingent valuation and respondents’ unfamiliarity with certain ecosystem services may increase their preference uncertainty, which may increase variance and even cause bias in WTP estimates. Taking advantage of a unique stated preference data set that includes a follow-up question rating the respondent’s certainty level, this study evaluates alternative methods of modeling certainty-adjusted WTP for cleaner lakes and abated global warming. Results suggest that the incorporation of self-reported uncertainty into binary...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Contingent valuation; Willingness to Pay; Preference Uncertainty; Numerical certainty scale; Ecosystem services; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Q51; Q57.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103734

Managing Perceived Risks through Supply Chain Relationships: An Empirical Study of the UK Beef Sector
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hornibrook,   Susan A.; Fearne,   Andrew.
This study offers an alternative to the traditional Transaction Cost Economics view of the treatment of information by viewing co-ordinated supply chains as a series of Principal-Agent relationships, and draws on Perceived Risk Theory to explain both consumer and organisational behaviour.  Using a supply chain methodology, empirical evidence is presented of the perceived risks, associated management strategies and benefits for all members, including consumers/customers, for two co-ordinated supply chains for own brand fresh beef products in the UK, one in the retail sector and one in the foodservice sector.  The results conclude that the establishment of the two co-ordinated supply chains reduces perceived risk for consumers and each participating...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Contractual relationships; Perceived risk; Agency theory; Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7724

MANAGING DAIRY PROFIT RISK USING WEATHER DERIVATIVES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chen,   Gang; Roberts,   Matthew C.; Thraen,   Cameron S.
Replaced with revised version of paper 05/26/04.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18971

Optimal Resource Extraction Contracts Under Threat of Expropriation
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Engel,   Eduardo M.R.A.; Fischer,   Ronald.
The government contracts with a foreign firm to extract a natural resource that requires an upfront investment and which faces price uncertainty. In states where profits are high, there is a likelihood of expropriation, which generates a social cost that increases with the expropriated value. In this environment, the planner's optimal contract avoids states with high probability of expropriation. The contract can be implemented via a competitive auction with reasonable informational requirements. The bidding variable is a cap on the present value of discounted revenues, and the firm with the lowest bid wins the contract. The basic framework is extended to incorporate government subsidies, unenforceable investment effort and political moral hazard, and the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Taxation; Mining; Rent extraction; Royalty; Non-renewable natural resource; Present-value-of-revenue auction; Public Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q33; Q34; Q38; H21; H25.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6390

ADJUSTING CROP INSURANCE PREMIUM AND PRODUCTION GUARANTEE LEVELS TO REFLECT FARMER EXPERIENCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: King,   Robert P.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1984
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/13460

Migration and Land Rental as Risk Response in Rural China
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ward,   Patrick S.; Shively,   Gerald E.
Households in developing countries take various actions to smooth income or consumption as a means of managing or responding to risk. One of the principal means of smoothing income is through the diversification of income sources, including non-farm employment and rural-urban migration.  An important consumption smoothing strategy involves the accumulation and depletion of assets.  We examine migration and land rental market participation as responses to risk in rural China.  Using a longitudinal data set comprised of households in nine provinces in China from 1991 through 2006, we are able to test for the effect of various manifestations of underlying idiosyncratic and covariate income risk on household responses.  We find that covariate risks increase...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: China; Risk; Consumption smoothing; Income smoothing; International Development; Labor and Human Capital; Risk and Uncertainty; O15; R23; Q15.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103379

USING CHOICE EXPERIMENTS TO ELICIT FARMERS PREFERENCES? FOR CROP AND HEALTH INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nganje,   William E.; Hearne,   Robert R.; Orth,   Michael; Gustafson,   Cole R.
A random utility discrete choice experiments is used to determine farmers' preferences for health insurance, crop insurance, and a product that switches some portion of crop insurance subsidy to health insurance premium subsidy with access to large-pool risk groups.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20357

Understanding the U.S. Generic Advertising System and Its Role in Information Management Among Commodities and Food Systems
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ward,   Ronald W.
Understanding the U.S. Generic Advertising System and Its Role in Information Management Among Commodities and Food Systems
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Generic promotions; Checkoff; Demand; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97023

Actuarial Impacts of Loss Cost Ratio Ratemaking in U.S. Crop Insurance Programs
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Woodard,   Joshua D.; Sherrick,   Bruce J.; Schnitkey,   Gary D.
This study examines the actuarial implications of the loss cost ratio (LCR) ratemaking methodology employed by the Risk Management Agency as a component of base rates for U.S. crop insurance programs, and identifies specific conditions required for the LCR methodology to result in unbiased rates when liabilities trend. Specifically, constant relative yield risk resulting in growing absolute variance through time and other restrictive requirements are required for the LCR to result in unbiased rates. These requirements are tested against a large farm-level data set for Illinois corn. Our findings indicate that the conditions required for appropriate use of the LCR methodology are violated for this high premium volume market, resulting in large implied rate...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Actuarially fair; Crop insurance; Insurance rating; Loss cost ratio; Risk growth; Risk Management Agency; Yield trends; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/105550

Insure or Invest in Green Technologies to Protect Against Adverse Weather Events?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pietola,   Kyosti; Myyra,   Sami; Niemi,   Jarkko K.; Van Asseldonk,   Marcel A.P.M.
This paper analyses investments in green technologies when insurance is also an option. Green technologies are defined to have the power to increase productivity and decrease volatility of future revenues. The insurance options involve the scale and coverage either in a yield insurance or in an index insurance. The stochastic process is a combination of insurable stationary short-run process and non-stationary long run process. The optimal decision rules are solved numerically by stochastic dynamic programming. The results suggest that the index insurance maintains market based incentives to invest in green technologies whereas a yield insurance substantially decreases investments, as expected. An actuarially fair yield insurance decreases investments at...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Investment; Insurance; Uncertainty; Dynamic programming; Green technology; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100738

Estimating Private Incentives for Wildfire Risk Mitigation: Determinants of Demands for Different Fire-Safe Actions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kobayashi,   Mimako; Zirogiannis,   Nikolaos; Rollins,   Kimberly S.; Evans,   M.D.R.
In this article we develop a general conceptual model of a property-owner’s decision to implement actions to protect his property against wildfire threat. Assuming a prospective-utility maximizing decision maker, we derive a system of demand functions for fire-safe actions that characterizes factors affecting individual decision making. We then empirically estimate the demands for various fire-safe actions functions using survey data of property owners facing a wildfire threat in Nevada. We find that the probability of individuals implementing some fire-safe action increases with value of the residence, previous experience with wildfire, the property being used as the primary residence, positive attitude towards wildfire management methods on public lands,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61867

Testing for Speculative Bubbles in Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Regime Switching Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Liu,   Xiaoliang; Filler,   Gunther; Odening,   Martin.
The sharp increase in agricultural commodity prices in 2008 and in 2011 has triggered an intensive debate on the causes for these price booms. Speculative bubbles have been quoted as one factor among others for the price peaks. Against this background, our paper contributes to this discussion by implementing a novel test procedure for speculative bubbles which has been suggested in the stock market literature. We use a regime switching regression model to test the hypothesis that agricultural prices are driven by periodically collapsing bubbles. The analysis is conducted for wheat, which is one of the most important crops worldwide. Our results show that the data do not support this particular bubbles hypothesis.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural commodity market; Net convenience yield; Speculative bubbles; Regime switching; Fundamental values.; Risk and Uncertainty; C12; Q13; Q14.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122554

Hedging a Government Entitlement: The Case of Countercyclical Payments
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anderson,   John D.; Coble,   Keith H.; Miller,   J. Corey.
This research evaluates whether the introduction of countercyclical payments creates an incentive for program crop producers to hedge the expected government payment using futures and/or options. Results indicate that some level of countercyclical payment hedging is optimal for risk-averse decision makers. However, optimal hedge ratios depend on planting time expectations of marketing year average price as well as on what crop, if any, has been planted on countercyclical payment base acres. These results suggest that the ability to hedge may make these payments more decoupled but also illustrate the distortion of producer behavior induced by farm programs.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Countercyclical payment; Expected utility; Hedging; Policy; Risk; Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q13; Q18.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6299

Efficiency Costs of Subsidy Rules for Crop Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wang,   H. Holly; Hanson,   Steven D.; Black,   J. Roy.
Participation in federal crop insurance programs has been encouraged through premium subsidies. The current subsidy depends on contract features as well as coverage levels. This type of subsidy rule causes farmers to choose contract designs and coverages that are not efficient for managing risk, in order to capture subsidy. Farmers are found to be as well off with a flat subsidy that is up to 25% less than the value of the current regressive proportional subsidy.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Futures; Risk management; Subsidy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30717

Pay-At-The-Pump Auto Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Khazzoom,   J. Daniel.
PAY-AT-THE-PUMP is a proposal to replace the current insurance system of lump sum payments for automobile insurance by a mechanism whereby motorists pay for their insurance as they buy fuel for their vehicles. PAY-AT-THE-PUMP has several advantages. It reduces insurance cost and cross subsidies and enhances equity. It also benefits the environment, safety, balance of payments, and security. In this paper we study limited but very important issues in the theory and implementation of PAY-AT-THE-PUMP insurance. We address issues of efficiency, subsidy, equity, externalities, safety, insurance cost and cost of insuring the uninsured motorist under a PAY-AT-THE- PUMP regime. We use the insurance industry's criticisms of mandatory auto insurance as a lens...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Converting fixed to variable cost; Efficient pricing of auto insurance; Environmental benefit of Pay-at-the-Pump; Exposure risk; Insurance cost; Insurance externalities; Mandatory insurance; Safety; Uninsured motorist; Universal auto insurance; Risk and Uncertainty; L2; L9; M2; Q2; Q4; R4.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10906

Risk Rating of FSA’s Guaranteed Loan Portfolio
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dodson,   Charles B.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61618

Accounting of agricultural and nonagricultural impacts of irrigation and drainage systems:  A study of multifunctionality in rice.
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Matsuno,   Yutaka; Ko,   H.S.; Tan,   C.H.; Barker,   Randolph; Levine,   G.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Irrigation farming; Drainage; Groundwater; Recharge; Rice; Paddy fields; Infiltration; Flood control; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92702

FINANCIAL RISK IN COTTON PRODUCTION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wilson,   Paul N.; Gundersen,   Carl E.
Risk analysis continues to emphasize price and yield variability as the principal components of the decision-maker's risk environment.  This research demonstrates the relative importance of financial risk for a representative cotton farm in Arizona.  For highly leveraged operations, financial risk may account for 70 percent of the total risk faced by the producer.  Implications for future risk analysis are discussed in light of these findings.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1985
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29974

CROP INSURANCE UNDER QUALITY UNCERTAINTY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nganje,   William E.; Tiapo,   Napoleon M.; Wilson,   William W.
Quality related yield and price losses have had significant impact on producer income and risks, and in some instances exceeded yield and price losses covered by conventional insurance instruments.  However, there are no effective third party quality risk transfer mechanisms especially for barley growers. In this paper, we develop a framework to incorporate quality-related risk in crop insurance programs.  Specifically, we derive the optimum equilibrium coverage levels and risk premium that suppliers of insurance and producers would be willing to provide when the yield and revenue insurance instruments explicitly incorporate quality losses.  The results of our analysis provide several important contributions.  First, the methodology illustrates how quality...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36097

Adoption and impacts of zero tillage as a resource conserving technology in the irrigated plains of South Asia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Erenstein,   Olaf; Farooq,   Umar; Malik,   R.K.; Sharif,   Muhammad.
The recent stagnation of productivity growth in the irrigated areas of the Indo-Gangetic Plains of South Asia has led to a quest for resource-conserving technologies that can save water, reduce production costs and improve production. The present synthesis of two detailed country studies confirmed widespread adoption of zero tillage (ZT) wheat in the rice-wheat systems of India’s Haryana State (34.5% of surveyed households) and Pakistan’s Punjab province (19%). The combination of a significant “yield effect” and “cost-saving effect” makes adoption worthwhile and is the main driver behind the rapid spread and widespread acceptance of ZT in Haryana, India. In Punjab, Pakistan, adoption is driven by the significant ZT-induced cost savings for wheat...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Zero tillage; Rice; Wheat; Water conservation; India; Pakistan; Haryana; Punjab; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91816

Which type of crop insurance for Kazakhstan? -- Empirical Results
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Heidelbach,   Olaf; Bokusheva,   Raushan; Kussaiynov,   Talgat.
Risk plays an important role in agricultural decision-making, particularly in those regions that are remarkably exposed to natural hazards and underdeveloped input and output markets. This is especially true for crop production in CIS countries where many farms have to deal with low liquidity and sharp continental climate at the same time. The discussion paper analyses the results of expert interviews, a workshop with key-informants and a farm survey which investigated production conditions, risk attitudes and risk management techniques with respect to the requirements of a functioning crop insurance system in Kazakhstan.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14876

Weather Insurance of Wine - How Quantity and Quality Regulations Affect Risks
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Phelippe-Guinvarc'h,   Martial.
To develop weather insurance, GROUPAMA builds a general model of agronomic crop yield density function. This approach is applied for cereal, industrial products, wine and fruits. From the density function, weather risk premium is computed. The wine-producing practices disturb our approach of risks. First, wine yields are limited by public regulations. Second, some cooperatives applied quality regulations. Then, observed crop yields are not agronomic crop yields needed by the model. The paper proposes a simulation process to estimate the agronomic parameters of areas crop yields from observed crop yields data. This process is tested on Champagne wine historical data. We measure too the impact of the quantity rules on our estimation of premium. Next, the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Weather Insurance; Wine; Quality Insurance; Regulations impacts on Risks; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9258

Implementing Options Markets in California To Manage Water Supply Uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hansen,   Kristiana; Howitt,   Richard E.; Williams,   Jeffrey C.
In California, the tremendous spatial and temporal variation in precipitation suggests that flexible contractual arrangements, such as option contracts, would increase allocative efficiency of water over time and space.  Under such arrangements, a water agency pays an option premium for the right to purchase water at some point in the future, if water conditions turn out to be dry.  The premium represents the value of the flexibility gained by the buyer from postponing its decision whether to purchase water.  In California, the seller of existing option arrangements is often an agricultural producer who can fallow land, in the event that a water option is exercised.  In this simulation-optimization approach, we seek to determine the value of transferring...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21218

An Expository Review of Bernoullian Decision Theory in Agriculture: Is Utility Futility?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dillon,   John L.
An outline and appraisal is given of Bernoullian decision theory with a view to its potential use in agricultural contexts, both on and off the farm. Despite the existence of a variety of difficulties and unresolved problems, it is argued that Bernoulli's Principle--because of its recognition of the personal nature of decision making in terms of beliefs and preferences--represents the best possible approach to risky choice in agriculture.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1971
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9670

OPTIONAL UNIT POLICY IN CROP INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shaik,   Saleem; Atwood,   Joseph A.
Utilizing ordered logit we examine the presence of two kinds of asymmetric information-adverse selection (intertemporal variability) and moral hazard (interspatial and/or residual variability) as revealed by the choice of optional units in Federal crop insurance utilizing Risk Management Agency's 1996-2000 cotton yield and loss data files.  Further, a tobit model is estimated to examine the factors explaining the loss cost ratio from Risk Management Agency perspective.  Potential costs of adverse selection and/or moral hazard in optional unit provision are estimated to be as high as $180 million in US cotton over the 1996-2000 period.  Keywords:  Adverse Selection, Moral Hazard, Optional Unit Policy, Crop Insurance, U.S. Cotton, Logit and Tobit models.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Adverse Selection; Moral Hazard; Optional Unit Policy; Crop Insurance; U.S. Cotton; Logit and Tobit models.; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19741

How Cognitive Maps May Help Understand Consumer Attitude?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ricci,   Sophie; Fourcadet,   Olivier.
At the beginning of this research, we had in mind the low consumption level of fruits and vegetables among French young people despite several months of intense exposure to health messages, such as “eat 5 portions of fruits and vegetables every day”. Studies show that French young people have memorized the messages, but did not alter their eating habits. Our major hypothesis was that some “mental blocks” might be curbing fruit consumption, and removing them might increase consumption. Similarly we thought that some “mental levers” if well activated could increase fruit consumption. Identifying “mental blocks” and “mental levers” related to fruits became our research goal. To achieve this objective, building the cognitive map of the fruit universe appears...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59194

Farm Level Analysis of Risk, and Risk Management Strategies and Policies: Evidence from German Crop Farms
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anton,   Jesus; Kimura,   Shingo.
This paper describes farmer’s exposures to risks at the individual farm level and develops a model representing the decisions of an individual risk averse farmer facing variability in both prices and yields. A set of stylised risk market instruments is represented.  The model is calibrated using farm level data from Germany.  Monte-Carlo simulations of the random variables are run, and the corresponding optimal responses are obtained. The main focus of this paper is the interactions between government payments and the farmers’ use of risk market instruments in terms of the potential crowding out of such instruments and impacts on farm return and welfare. Unlike other studies this paper models farming response to payments in terms of production and the use...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Welfare; Crop yield insurance; Forward contracting and Single Farm Payment; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q12.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51729

Contracting, Signaling of Uncertain Quality, and Price Volatility?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chin,   Ming-Chin; Weaver,   Robert D.
Theoretical and simulation results clarify the role of forward procurement contracting as a determinant of spot price levels and volatility. A stylized model determines market share across quality when procurers forward contract to manage quality risk. Actual supply is specified as price dependent and stochastic. Simulation examines sensitivity of spot price level and volatility to extent of forward contracting, risk aversion, and ability to adjust spot market demand (recontracting). The results show that as forward contracting increases mean spot price decreases and variance increases. This effect increases as risk aversion decreases and as the extent of recontracting adjustment in spot demand decreases.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24790

Evaluating Alternative Safety Net Programs in Alberta: A Firm-level Simulation Analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jeffrey,   Scott R.; Novak,   Frank S.
This paper examines alternative risk management strategies in terms of their effectiveness for three representative Alberta farm operations. Stochastic dynamic simulation methods are used to model financial performance for these farms, and alternative risk management programs are compared in terms of their ability to stabilize returns, support income and reduce the probability of bankruptcy. The results suggest that government programs such as the Net Income Stabilization Account (NISA) program or the Farm Income Disaster Program (FIDP) in Alberta have some benefits in terms of supporting income levels and reducing the chances of farm failure. Neither program is very effective, however, in stabilizing year to year income or cash flow for the farm...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24118

Optimal Control of Spreading Biological Invasions: For How Long Should We Apply the Brake?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Carrasco,   Luis Roman; MacLeod,   Alan; Knight,   John D.; Baker,   Richard; Mumford,   John D.
Identifying the optimal switching point between different invasive alien species (IAS) management policies is a very complex task and policy makers are in need of modelling tools to assist them. In this paper we develop an optimal control bioeconomic model to estimate the type of optimal policy and switching point of control efforts against a spreading IAS. We apply the models to the case study of Colorado potato beetle in the UK. The results demonstrate that eradication is optimal for small initial sizes of invasion at discovery. High capacity of the agency to reduce spread velocity for several years leads to smaller total overall costs of invasion and makes eradication optimal for larger sizes of initial invasion. In many cases, it is optimal to switch...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Barrier zone; Biosecurity; Dynamic optimization; Eradication; Leptinotarsa decemlineata; Pest risk analysis; Reaction-diffusion.; Risk and Uncertainty; Q1; Q28; Q57.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50940

USING BEST WORST SCALING TO INVESTIGATE PERCEPTIONS OF CONTROL &amp; CONCERN OVER FOOD AND NON-FOOD RISKS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Erdem,   Seda; Rigby,   Dan.
This research locates a series of risks or hazards within a framework characterised by the level of control respondents believe they have over the risks, and the level of worry the risks prompt. It does this for a set of both food and non-food risks. The means by which this is done is novel, and differs from past risk perception analyses in that it questions people directly regarding their relative assessments of the levels of control and worry over the risks presented. The cognitive burden associated with people ranking and scaling items in large sets is notoriously heavy, so this study uses an elicitation method designed to make the process intuitive and cognitively manageable for respondents. The substantive analysis of the risk perceptions has four...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Best-worst scaling; Risk; Perception; Novel technology; E. coli; UK; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108790

Empirical Tests of the Refutable Implications of Expected Utility Maximization under Risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Liu,   Yucan; Shumway,   C. Richard.
The curvature properties of the indirect utility function imply a set of refutable implications in the form of comparative static results and symmetric relations for the competitive firm operating under uncertainty. These hypotheses, first derived and empirically tested under output price uncertainty by Saha and Shumway (1998), are extended in this paper to the more general case of both price and quantity uncertainty and result in an important theoretical finding. Empirical tests using a panel of state-level observations fail to reject most refutable hypotheses under output price and output quantity risk, but symmetry conditions implied by a twice-continuously-differentiable indirect utility function are rejected. Two restrictive risk preference hypotheses...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Indirect utility function; Refutable implications; Risk and uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19331

Willingness to Pay for Traceable Meat Attributes: A Meta-analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cicia,   Gianni; Colantuoni,   Francesca.
Several researches evaluated consumers’ Willingness To Pay (WTP) for each meat traceable attribute, generating a great deal of information in this regard, although specific to the conditions of each study. In light of this, WTP estimates for traceability characteristics differ across the literature, leading sometimes to contrasting interpretations. Seeking a full, meaningful statistical description of the findings of a collection of studies, the meta-analysis allows us to analyze consistency across studies and control for factors thought to drive variations in WTP estimates. The meta-analysis has been conducted using 23 studies that, in aggregate, report 88 valuations for WTP. Our results, aside from releasing unconditional information on the WTP for...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Meta-analysis; Food traceability; Willingness to Pay; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Production Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97028

Is commodity price volatility persistent? Another look using improved, full-sample estimates
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Karali,   Berna; Power,   Gabriel J.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61826

RISK ATTITUDES AMONGST AUSTRALIAN FARMERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bond,   Gary E.; Wonder,   Bernard.
A procedure for the measurement of risk attitudes is developed and applied. The data for the analysis were obtained from a survey in which 201 farmers throughout Australia were asked to provide points of indifference between sure amounts of income and risky prospects. Although the conclusions from this pilot study are of a tentative nature, it is suggested that risk aversion is the most prevalent risk attitude in the agricultural sector. However, the average degree of risk aversion is relatively small and, in an expected utility context, farmers gave a wide variety of responses. The latter result highlights the need to consider the size distribution of risk attitudes in economic modelling. Influences of socioeconomic and other variables on risk attitudes...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1980
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23064

Managing Expected Switchgrass Biomass Yield Variability by Strategically Selecting Land to Lease
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Debnath,   Deepayan; Stoecker,   Arthur L.; Epplin,   Francis M.
Biorefineries that plan to use switchgrass exclusively will have to account for year-to-year variability in feedstock production. The objective of this research is to determine the quantity, class, and location of land to lease for switchgrass production to provide for the needs of a biorefinery. The firm could elect to lease land based on average switchgrass yields or to lease to attempt to insure that even in the worst case (based on historical data) production year the area leased will produce sufficient feedstock to fully provide for the needs of the biorefinery. EPIC was used to generate empirical distributions of switchgrass biomass yields for three land classes for each of 30 counties. Mathematical programming was used to address the objectives and...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: EPIC; Mathematical programming; Switchgrass; Yield variability; Crop Production/Industries; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty; Q42; Q12.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124230

RISK MANAGEMENT IN AGRICULTURAL MARKETS: A SURVEY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tomek,   William G.; Peterson,   Hikaru Hanawa.
This paper surveys and evaluates the current state of knowledge about marketing strategies to manage price and revenue risk for farm commodities.  What does existing research tell about the benefits and costs of alternative risk management strategies?   What are the limitations of this research?   What are the gaps in our knowledge?
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19580

A Risk Assessment Model on Pine Wood Nematode in the EU
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Soliman,   T.; Hengeveld,   G.M.; Robinet,   C.; Mourits,   Monique; van der Werf,   Wopke; Oude Lansink,   Alfons G.J.M.
Pine wood nematode, B. xylophilus poses a serious threat for the European forest industry. This study applies a quantitative risk assessment to analyze the risk of pine wood nematode in the EU, by estimating the reduction expected within forestry stock available for wood supply and its downstream roundwood market. Spatial analysis is used to join information on climate suitability, host distribution, pest spread and value of assets. Economic impacts are presented spatially on a NUTS-2 scale based on partial budgeting technique and for the EU as a whole based on partial equilibrium modeling. Results highlight the Southern regions of Europe as high risk areas with a total impact on available forestry stock of 19,000 M € after 20 years of an outbreak and no...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk assessment; Pine wood nematode; Economic analysis; EU; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116010

2008 Farm Bill: Implications for Risk Management (PowerPoint Presentation)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Frerichs,   Stephen.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37383

ROBUSTNESS OF NON-PARAMETRIC MEASUREMENT OF EFFICIENCY AND RISK AVERSION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Settlage,   Daniel M.; Preckel,   Paul V.
This paper examines the performance of a risk-adjusted non-parametric approach to measuring efficiency and risk aversion.  Prior work is extended to the case where agent behavior is motivated by expected utility maximization.  Results indicate the approach significantly outperforms traditional efficiency measurement methods when applied to risk averse agents.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19765

Net Effect of Education on Technology Adoption by U.S. Farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Uematsu,   Hiroki; Mishra,   Ashok K.
The objective of this study is to estimate the net effect of education on technology adoption for U.S. farmers. Using 2006 Agricultural Resource Management Survey data, this study develops a simultaneous equations model to integrate farmers’ labor allocation decision with adoption of both time saving and management intensive technologies.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Education; Technology adoption; Off-farm labor supply; Precision farming; Genetically modified crops; Simultaneous equations model; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q10; Q12.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56450

The Impact of Risk and Farm Program Design on Cash Rents
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ifft,   Jennifer; Cooper,   Joseph C.; Kuethe,   Todd H.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124334

Factors Affecting Maize Producers Adoption of Forward Pricing in Price Risk Management: The Case of Vaalharts
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jordaan,   Henry; Grove,   Bennie.
Logistic regression is employed to analyse the factors which influence the decision of whether or not the respondent used forward pricing methods during the 2004/05 maize production season.  Forward pricing methods include cash forward contracting and hedging with futures contracts and/or options, through the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX).  Based on the results, the use of forward pricing is associated with lower levels of risk aversion and higher levels of human capital.  Factor analysis is employed to reduce the dimensionality of the personal reasons which help to interpret the underlying, common factor of the personal reasons why farmers are reluctant to use forward pricing methods.   Three factors were extracted and were labelled “Lack of...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Forward pricing; Logit; Factor analysis; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7049

AN EVALUATION OF CONSUMER PESTICIDE RESIDUE CONCERNS AND RISK INFORMATION SOURCES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Byrne,   Patrick J.; Gempesaw,   Conrado M., II; Toensmeyer,   Ulrich C.
Marginal probability effects of demographic variables on consumer concerns about pesticide residues were assessed as well as the likelihood of consumer beliefs given different channels of information on produce safety and risks. This was done using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of ordered logit models. The empirical results showed that pesticide residue concern levels appeared to be lower for more highly educated and high income households. Safety information from the academic community was found to have the highest likelihood of acceptance by consumers.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1991
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30052

Livestock Gross Margin Insurance for Dairy Cattle:  An Analysis of Program Performance and Cost under Alternative Policy Configurations
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cabrera,   Victor E.; Gould,   Brian W.; Valvekar,   Mayuri.
Livestock Gross Margin insurance for dairy cattle (LGM-Dairy) is a risk management tool that can be used to insure a lower bound on a dairy producer’s gross margin. In this paper we (1) review the basic structure of LGM-Dairy (2) examine the sensitivity of Gross Margin Guarantee (GMG) and premium to changes in feeding regimes and (3) quantify impacts of changes in deductible level on important program characteristics.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Dairy Price Risk; Uncertainty; Livestock Insurance.; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49262

RISK BALANCING USING FARM LEVEL DATA:  AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Yan,   Yan; Katchova,   Ani L.; Barry,   Peter J.
In the paper, an econometric model is proposed to test the risk balancing hypothesis using farm level data. For the purpose, a constraint on expected utility maximization with respect to farm financial structure is given. Cluster method is applied to pick out the farms on the efficient frontier under expected utility maximization given risk attitude and actual interest rate. Regression results are given and compared to previous findings. Farm characteristics associated with the risk behaviors of farms with optimal utility are identified and compared with other farms.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20142

DETERMINANTS OF HOUSEHOLD HURRICANE EVACUATION CHOICE IN FLORDIA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Solis,   Daniel; Thomas,   Michael H.; Letson,   David.
In this study we implement a set of econometric models to analyze the determinants of household hurricane evacuation choice for a sample of 1,355 households in Florida. This article contributes to the literature by accounting for two issues normally neglected in previous studies; namely, time and space. The empirical results suggest that households living in risky environments (mobile home and flooding areas) are more likely to evacuate. In addition, households with kids and those who have experience the treat of a hurricane also display higher probabilities to evacuate. Conversely, homeowners and households with pets are less likely to evacuate than their counterparts. Regional differences in propensity to evacuate are also clearly demonstrated, with...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Hurricane; Evacuation choice; Probit; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45338

Microfinance for Agricultural Firms-  Credit Access and Loan Repayment in Tanzania
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Weber,   Ron; Musshoff,   Oliver.
On the example of a commercial microfinance institution (MFI) in Tanzania this paper investigates first whether agricultural firms have a different probability to get a loan and whether their loans are differently volume rationed than loans to non-agricultural firms. Second, we analyze whether agricultural firms repay their loans with different delinquencies than non-agricultural firms. Our results reveal that agricultural firms face higher obstacles to get credit but as soon as they have access to credit, their loans are not differently volume rationed than those of non-agricultural firms. Furthermore, agricultural firms are less often delinquent when paying back their loans than non-agricultural firms. Our findings suggest that a higher risk exposition...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Access to Credit; Loan Repayment; Microfinance Institutions; Financial Economics; International Development; Risk and Uncertainty; G21; G32; Q14.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122552

Does Duality Theory Hold in Practice? A Monte Carlo Analysis for U.S. Agriculture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rosas,   Francisco; Lence,   Sergio H.
The Neoclassical theory of production establishes a dual relationship between the profit value function of a competitive firm and its underlying production technology. This relationship, usually referred to as the duality theory, has been widely used in empirical work to estimate production parameters without the requirement of explicitly specifying the technology. We analyze the ability of this approach to recover the underlying production parameters and its effects on estimated elasticities and scale economies measurements, when data available for estimation features typical realistic problems. We design alternative scenarios and compute the data generating process by Monte Carlo simulations, so as to know the true technology parameters as well as to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Duality theory; Firm’s heterogeneity; Measurement error; Data aggregation; Omitted variables; Endogeneity; Uncertainty; Monte Carlo simulations.; Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; D22; D81.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103911

Rainfall Variability and its Impact on Dryland Cropping in Victoria
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wimalasuriya,   Rukman; Ha,   Arthur; Tsafack,   Esther; Larson,   Kristoffer.
Conventional wisdom holds that rainfall variability represents a significant source of agriculture production risk. Surprisingly, there have been very few economic analyses exploring the link between rainfall variability and agriculture production. This paper is intended to investigate the factual basis of this assumption and to inform future government policy in such areas as drought, climate change adaptation and water policy. We investigate whether rainfall variability has had an actual impact on agricultural production, specifically dryland cropping in Victorian regions during the period 1982-83 to 2004-05.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6000

FARMERS' VEG RISK PERCEPTIONS AND ADOPTION OF VEG CROP INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bard,   Sharon K.; Stewart,   Robert K.; Hill,   Lowell D.; Hoffman,   Linwood A.; Dismukes,   Robert; Chambers,   William.
Producer survey results are analyzed to determine factors influencing value-enhanced grain (VEG) risk perceptions and VEG crop insurance adoption.  VEG production is perceived to be riskier than commodity production.  VEG types, input costs, and production problems affect risk perceptions.  Factors including previous insurance use impact VEG crop insurance adoption.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22203

Food security in Uganda: a dilemma to achieving the millennium development goal
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ssewanyana,   Sarah N.; Kasirye,   Ibrahim.
The status of food security in Uganda is worrying. The share of Ugandans suffering from food insecurity measured in terms of caloric intake is alarmingly high with low rates of income poverty. Based on the 2005/06 Uganda National Household Survey data, the study provides insights into access to food at household level. More importantly, the study shows that average caloric intake stood at 1,970 calories per person per day, which is below the minimum caloric requirement of 2,200 calories. As such, a population of 17.5 million Ugandans in 3.1 million households were unable to meet the minimum caloric requirement in 2006. This raises questions on whether Uganda will be able to achieve the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 1: halving extreme poverty and hunger...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Food security; Caloric intake; Famine; Ssewanyana; Food prices; EPRC; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Labor and Human Capital; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/113614

Revenue Insurance and Chemical Input Use Rates
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nimon,   R. Wesley; Mishra,   Ashok K.
Using farm level data and a simultaneous probit model we evaluate the input use and environmental effects of revenue insurance.  A priori, the moral hazard effect on input use is indeterminate and this study empirically assesses the input use impact of the increasingly popular, and federally subsidized, risk management instrument of revenue insurance.  We conclude that the moral hazard effect of federally subsidized revenue insurance products induces U.S. wheat farmers to increase expenditures on pesticides and reduce expenditures on fertilizers.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20669

EMPIRICAL ISSUES IN CROP REINSURANCE DECISIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nayak,   Govindaray; Turvey,   Calum G.
This paper investigates the role of reinsurance in the managing the liquidity or reserve fund risks facing a crop insurer. Using 31 years of data, combined with Monte Carlo simulation the paper illustrates a mechanism for calculating reinsurance premiums and determining the post insurance risk profile. The insured event is over a range of loss ratios, and the focus of the paper is on reserve fund balances.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Reinsurance; Crop insurance; Agricultural risks; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21612

AN APPLICATION OF RISK ANALYSIS: LOCALIZED CORN AND SOYBEAN PRICE DISTRIBUTIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nefstead,   Ward E.
This paper examines the spatial elements of marketing grain. The decision of " where" to market has been ignored due to data limitations and lack of necessity. The author will incorporate localized probability distributions of price/basis in an Excel spreadsheet using @RISK which will evaluate marketing decisions for producers.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21774

Designing Crop Insurance to Manage Moral Hazard Costs
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Weaver,   Robert D.; Kim,   Taeho.
A new crop insurance model based on just random risk (natural states) is presented instead of traditional model based on random risk, guaranteed price, and guaranteed yield. The simulation approach shows how the incentive compatibility constraints resolve the moral hazard problem by the insured under the insurer-agency crop insurance contracting.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24784

Study of Evacuation Behavior of Coastal Gulf of Mexico Residents
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bhattacharjee,   Sanjoy; Petrolia,   Daniel R.; Hanson,   Terrill R.
In this study, we investigate the link between hurricane characteristics, demographics of the Coastal Gulf of Mexico residents, including their household location, and their respective evacuation behavior. Our study is significantly different from the previously made studies on hurricane evacuation behavior in two ways. At first, the research data is collected through recording responses to a series of hypothetical situations which are quite identical to the set of information that people are used to see during the hurricane season. Secondly, this study addresses and includes response heterogeneity while analyzing sample behavior, an issue which has not been addressed in previous research on hurricane evacuation behavior in spite of its importance.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Evacuation Behavior; Hurricane; Response Heterogeneity; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; C35; Q54.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46845

Threats from Illegal Logging
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: MacDonald,   Ian.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124404

THE DEMAND FOR COMMODITY INSURANCE BY DEVELOPING COUNTRY AGRICULTURAL PRODUCERS: THEORY AND AN APPLICATION OF COCOA IN GHANA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sarris,   Alexander H.
The paper considers the benefit to agricultural producers from commodity price insurance that provides in every year, but in advance of the resolution of production and price uncertainty, a minimum price for a fixed or variable portion of production.  Under the assumption that producers do not change their long term production and income diversification pattern, the theoretical framework suggested leads to explicit formulas for the benefit from providing this type of insurance.  The theoretical framework is implemented for Ghana, using the GLSS data to specify various classes of cocoa producing households, and monthly price data for both domestic and international prices to formulate appropriate models for ascertaining price risks faced by producers....
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Commodity price insurance; Coca; Ghana; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25926

Risk Management in Smallholder Cattle Farming: A Hypothetical Insurance Approach in Western Kenya
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Otieno,   David Jakinda; Oluoch-Kosura,   Willis; Karugia,   Joseph Thuo; Drucker,   Adam G.; Rege,   Edward.
Smallholder cattle farming is an important livelihood strategy in most developing countries like Kenya. However, tropical diseases in Africa often wipe out these valuable assets. This paper focuses on mitigation of cattle disease risks through a hypothetical insurance scheme. The study is based on data from a survey conducted on a purposive sample of 300 smallholder cattle farmers in Kakamega and Siaya districts of Western Kenya. Descriptive measures and a regression model were used in the analysis. Results of the study showed that most farmers (91.3%) were willing to participate in the cattle insurance scheme. Also, the farmers observed that the scheme would enable them to increase their herd sizes and change their breed composition. The farmer's mean...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Cattle; Smallholder livelihoods; Disease risks; Insurance; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25489

CDM Baseline Construction for Vietnam National Electricity Grid
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tuyen,   Tran Minh; Michaelowa,   Axel.
For projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), a baseline has to be set to allow calculation of the greenhouse gas emissions reductions achieved. An important obstacle to CDM project development is the lack of data for baseline definition; often project developers do not have access to data and therefore incur high transaction costs to collect them. The government of Vietnam has set up all necessary institutions for CDM, wants to promote CDM projects and thus is interested to reduce transaction costs. We calculate emission factors of the Vietnam electricity grid according to the rules defined by the CDM Executive Board for small scale projects and for large renewable electricity generation projects. The emission factors lie between 365 and 899 g...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: CDM; Baseline; Electricity generation; Vietnam; Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; D62; F18; Q25; Q41.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26393

INTRODUCING NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND MARKETING STRATEGIES FOR HOUSEHOLDS WITH MALNUTRITION: AN ETHIOPIAN CASE STUDY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Yigezu,   Yigezu A.; Sanders,   John H.
Many developing regions have excellent potential agricultural resources. However, historically population has become so concentrated on such small holdings that acute poverty and malnutrition now predominate. The food scientists’ response to the chronic nutritional problem has often been subsidized bio-fortification with nutritional supplements or more recently cultivars with higher nutrient levels. Where much of the population is in this inadequate nutrition category as in highland Ethiopia, the supplements are neither financially feasible nor sustainable. The cultivars can provide a few critical nutrients but are not a comprehensive solution. To improve nutrition, it is necessary to increase income so that an increased quality and quantitative diet can...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Adoption; Agricultural technologies; Striga resistance; Inorganic fertilizers; Tied-ridges; Marketing strategies; Inventory credit; Nutrition; Income; Capped-lexicographic utility.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; International Development; Production Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty; O13; O33; Q16; Q18.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36813

The differentiated effects of food price spikes on poverty in Uganda
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Boysen,   Ole; Matthews,   Alan.
This paper applies an integrated CGE-microsimulation model to analyse the impact of the 2006-08 increase in commodity prices on Uganda. Previous impact analysis studies suggested that the food price shock increased poverty in Uganda as there are more net food buyer than net food seller households. We show that the agriculture commodity price shocks were poverty-reducing, but the simultaneous increases in energy and fertiliser prices were poverty-increasing. Overall, poverty decreased in Uganda as a result of external price shocks in the 2006-08 period.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Food price shock; Uganda; Microsimulation; Poverty; International Development; Risk and Uncertainty; O55; Q18.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122445

Investment in Irrigation Systems under Weather Uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Heumesser,   Christine; Fuss,   Sabine; Szolgayova,   Jana; Strauss,   Franziska; Schmid,   Erwin.
Irrigated agriculture will play a crucial role to meet future food demand, but a sustainable water resource management in agriculture is crucial as well. Therefore, the European Water Framework Directive promotes several measures, e.g., the adoption of adequate water pricing mechanisms or the promotion of water-saving irrigation techniques. Since production conditions such as weather and climate development are uncertain, farmers might be reluctant to invest in a water-saving but capital intensive irrigation system. We apply a stochastic dynamic programming approach to analyze a farmer’s optimal investment strategy for either a water–saving drip irrigation system or sprinkler irrigation system under weather uncertainty and assess the probability of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Irrigation investment; Stochastic dynamic programming approach; Water policies; Weather uncertainty; EPIC; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114536

Predicting Potential Invasive Species Distribution: An Application to New Zealand Mudsnails in the Pacific Northwest
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lim,   Youngah; Gopinath,   Munisamy; Chan,   Samuel; Harte,   Michael.
Quantitative approach for invasive species risk assessment
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Invasive species; New Zealand mudsnail; Gravity model; Maxent model; Risk assessment; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103646

Marine Reserves Switching under Uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Yamazaki,   Satoshi.
This paper analyses a fisheries management strategy, marine reserves switching, in which a non-fishing area is created, removed, or rotated from one site to another according to economic criteria through time. Using a dynamic optimisation framework under uncertainty, with the different fish dispersal processes, the optimal switching strategy and density distributions of the biomass, harvest, and net profit are simulated and compared under different management scenarios. This study will provide a decision and modelling framework for the design of marine reserves to achieve desired management goals.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Bioeconomic model; Fisheries management; Marine reserves; Uncertainty; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q22.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6003

Credit Risk Evaluation for Loans of Banco Agrario in Colombia (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hennings,   Enrique; Trujillo-Barrera,   Andres; Katchova,   Ani L.; Gomez,   Miguel I.; Estrada,   Dairo.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48141

Optimal Coverage Level Choice with Individual and Area Plans of Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bulut,   Harun; Collins,   Keith J.; Zacharias,   Thomas P.
We theoretically examine a farmer’s coverage demand with area and individual insurance plans as either separate or integrated options. The individual and area losses are assumed to be imperfectly and positively correlated. With actuarially fair rates, the farmer will fully insure with the individual plan and demand no area insurance regardless of the plans being separate or integrated. Under separate plans, free area insurance and the fair rate for individual insurance, area insurance replaces a portion of individual insurance demand. Under integrated plans, free area insurance, and the fair rate for individual insurance, the farmer over-insures using both area and individual plans.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural risk; Area plans of insurance; Crop insurance; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; G22; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98803

Direct payments, crop insurance and the volatility of farm income. Some evidence in France and in Italy
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Enjolras,   Geoffroy; Capitanio,   Fabian; Aubert,   Magali; Adinolfi,   Felice.
Volatility of farm income represents a major challenge for farm management and the design of public policies. This paper measures the extent to which risk management tools, especially direct payments and crop insurance, can significantly reduce crop income volatility in France and in Italy. We use an original dataset of 9,555 farms for the period 2003-2007 drawn up from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) and three different econometric models to explain the volatility of crop income. The results are contrasted between the specialization of the farms and the two countries: Italian farms use management tools (CAP payments and crop insurance) so as to improve their income and to reduce its volatility (crop insurance, inputs). French farms use the same...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Volatility; Direct payments; Insurance; France; Italy; FADN; Risk and Uncertainty; G22; Q14; Q18.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122478

A mixed-method approach for determining the risk and complexity farmers associate with using forward contracts
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jackson,   Elizabeth; Quaddus,   Mohammed; Islam,   Nazrul; Stanton,   John.
This paper reports on a model that was developed to understand the behavioural determinants surrounding farmers’ adoption of forward contracts for agricultural commodities.  Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour and Diffusion of Innovations, 28 hypotheses within the model were written and then tested via a telephone survey that gathered 305 responses from Western Australian wool producers.  The data from the telephone survey were analysed using SPSS 14 and the Partial Least Squares approach to Structural Equation Modelling.  Most relationships within the model could be explained after rigorous quantitative analysis, however, further explanation was required to understand two final aspects of adoption behaviour: firstly, the sources of risk wool...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Complexity; Forward contracts; Structural equation modelling; Partial least squares; Risk and Uncertainty; Q120; Q130.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42305

Stochastic Frontier Analysis of Biological Agents (Microbial Inoculants) Input Usage in Apple Production
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chavez,   Holcer; Nadolnyak,   Denis A.; Kloepper,   Joseph.
In this paper, we analyze the impact of the Microbial Inoculants (MI) Technology on apple yields and pesticide application using 2007 farm data. The results show that pesticide usage is not reduced by MI applications. However, there is a significant positive effect on the yields. Apple production efficiency is 37%.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Microbial Inoculants; Apple production; Frontier analysis; Damage control; Farm Management; Production Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119796

CERTAINTY EQUIVALENT PRICES AND PRODUCER WELFARE UNDER OUTPUT PRICE UNCERTAINTY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tsur,   Yacov; Zilberman,   David.
Producer welfare indices under price uncertainty are derived using the concept of certainty equivalent prices.  In this approach the marginal cost function is used instead of the ex-ante supply function; the effects of uncertainty and risk preference are captured by certainty equivalent prices.  Implications for welfare evaluation are discussed.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1989
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/13562

Current Issues in U.S. Cotton Futures Trading (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: O’Neill,   Joseph.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90987

Eliciting Risk Preferences: A Field Experiment on a Sample of French Farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bougherara,   Douadia; Gassmann,   Xavier; Piet,   Laurent.
We designed a field experiment involving real payments to elicit farmers’ risk preferences. Farmers are a very interesting sample to study since risk has always played an important role in agricultural producers’ decisions. Besides, European farmers may face more risky situations in the future. In this context, it is very important for any economic analysis focusing on agriculture to correctly assess farmers’ behaviour in the face of different sources of risk. We test for two descriptions of farmers’ behaviour: expected utility and cumulative prospect theory. We use two elicitation methods based on the procedures of Holt and Laury (2002) and Tanaka et al. (2010) on a sample of 30 French farmers. The experiment consists in asking subjects to make series of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk Attitudes; Field Experiment; Farming; Risk and Uncertainty; C93; D81; Q10.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114266

Crop Insurance, Disaster Payments, and Incentives for Land Use Change in Agriculture:  A Preliminary Assessment
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Carriazo,   Fernando; Claassen,   Roger; Cooper,   Joseph C.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Insurance; Disaster Payments; Supplemental Revenue Assistance; Corn; Wheat; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49218

Strategy Development in a Turbulent Business Climate: Concepts and Methods
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Boehlje,   Michael; Gray,   Allan W.; Detre,   Joshua D.
The accelerating speed of change in the food and agribusiness industries is resulting in more risk and uncertainty – the future is becoming much less predictable. The drivers of these uncertainties are also changing – strategic risk which generally has a low probability of occurrence, but large consequences has begun to replace tactical risk. Managing these risks requires not only new assessment tools such as scorecarding and mapping, but also more systematic decision frameworks. In essence, strategic risk management involves using the proper assessment and management tools so as to truncate the loss exposure and capture the profit potential of these risks.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Real options; Risk scorecarding; Strategic risk; Strategy development; Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8158

New Horizons for Revenue Insurance (Power Point Presentation)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Redding,   Russell C.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33284

HOG RISK MANAGEMENT SURVEY: SUMMARY AND PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Patrick,   George F.; Baquet,   Alan E.; Coble,   Keith H.; Knight,   Thomas O.
This paper summarizes the results of a survey of a stratified, random sample of 630 hog operations in Indiana and Nebraska.  The survey was conducted in March and April, 2000 with support of a research grant to contribute to the development of a knowledge base to guide the design and implementation of effective risk management programs, policies and tools.  This staff paper provides selected summary statistics with limited analysis of size of operation and state effects. Information is presented on sources and responses to risk as well as producers' views on selected agricultural policy, risk management and marketing issues. Use and perceptions of effectiveness of risk-reducing production practices are analyzed.  Producers' use of production and marketing...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk Management; Hogs; Agricultural Policy; Marketing Contracts; Hog Marketing; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28638

Impacts of risk aversion on whole-farm management in Syria
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pannell,   David J.; Nordblom,   Thomas L.
This article reports on a study of the impact of risk on farm management practices in northern Syria, focusing particularly on how these are affected by risk aversion and farm size. The study is based on production data from an eight‐year field trial and on prices from market surveys. A large linear programming model is built, representing the eight years as observations from a discrete probability distribution. Risk aversion is modelled by inclusion of a utility function with constant relative risk aversion, represented using the DEMP/UEP approach.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117232

Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Southern Pine Beetle Outbreaks with a Block Bootstrapping Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chen,   Xuan; Goodwin,   Barry K.
Our study focuses on modeling southern pine beetle (SPB) outbreaks in the southern area. The approach is to evaluate SPB outbreak frequency in a spatio-temporal framework. A block bootstrapping method with zero-inflated estimation has been proposed to construct a statistical model accounting for explanatory variables while adjusting for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Although the bootstrap (Efron 1979) method can handle independent observations well, the strong autocorrelation of SPB outbreaks brings about a major challenge. Motivated by bootstrapping overlapping blocks method in autoregressive time series scenario (Kunsch 1989) and block bootstrapping method of dependent data from a spatial map (Hall 1985), we have developed a method to bootstrap...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Southern Pinebeetle; Block Bootstrapping; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103668

Recent Convergence Performance of CBOT Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Contracts
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Irwin,   Scott H.; Garcia,   Philip; Good,   Darrel L.; Kunda,   Eugene L.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q11; Q13.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94645

Whole-Farm Revenue Insurance for Crop and Livestock Producers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Babcock,   Bruce A.; Hayes,   Dermot J.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18312

Pricing farm loans for credit risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bramma,   Keith M.
This article analyses the risk-return efficiency of limits to which loan pricing accounts for credit risk in the Australian-farm sector. A key issue faced by banks is the trade-off between raising returns through higher risk premiums and the possibility of impairing credit quality. The simulation results suggest that the stochastic efficiency of the size of risk-pricing limits is positively related to volatility of farm income when dynamic relationships are considered. This finding implies that Australian banks should price further across the credit-risk spectrum to farm businesses with relatively volatile incomes compared to those with stable incomes.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123607

The multifunctionality of agriculture and risk management as seen by Hungarian farmers involved in diversified farming
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Petrics,   Hajnalka; Feher,   Alajos.
Studying the multifunctional nature of agriculture requires a multi-level, multi-dimensional and multi-actor approach. In any given country analysis starts at the national economy level then descends to the farm and farm household level. In our study we analysed the life histories of nineteen non-representatively selected Hungarian family farms. In doing so, we determined that, to understand new initiatives undertaken by farmers, it was better to examine their motivation than merely examining the initiatives themselves. At the farm household level, multifunctionality is strongly related to achieving livelihood strategies and constitutes a possible risk management solution. The analysis has revealed farmers’ motivations for undertaking multifunctional...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Multifunctional agriculture; Rural economy; Risk management; Farmers’ motivation; Life history; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49196

Counterproductive Counternarcotic Strategies?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Andersson,   Camilla I.M.
We model the economic incentives surrounding opium crop production in Afghanistan. Specifically, we examine the impact of eradication policies when opium is used as a means of obtaining credit, and when the crops are produced in sharecropping arrangements. The analysis suggests that when perfect credit markets are available, an increased risk of eradication will lead to less land being allocated to opium poppy. However, when opium is used as a means of obtaining credit, the effects of eradication are no longer clear-cut. Finally, under sharecropping arrangements, increased risk of eradication will make the tenants worse off, while landlords may benefit.
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Eradication; Informal credit markets; Opium; Sharecropping; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118959

A NOTE ON THE VIABILITY OF RAINFALL INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Quiggin,   John C.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1986
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22877

U.S. Cotton Acreage Response Due to Subsidized Crop Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tronstad,   Russell; Bool,   Romilee.
AAEA Selected Paper
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Subsidy per pound; Rate of return simultaneous; Panel; Fixed effects; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61455

Climate Change and International Markets for Australian Food Exports
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Creese,   Jonathan; Marks,   Nicki.
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to alert food producers to emerging market demands associated with climate change. Design/methodology/approach – The study draws on literature review and applied market research. Findings – Many food retailers are applying pressure to their value chains to measure and manage carbon emissions. Although consumers play a role, consumers are not the main driver compelling retailers to respond to climate change. Research limitations/implications – This study only interviewed retailers in the United Kingdom and Japan as these are markets that are of particular interest for Australian food exporters. Originality/value – Consumers and retailers in export markets are responding to climate change. The research suggests that...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Food; Agriculture; Value chain; Retailer; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59186

Dynamic Field Experiments in Development Economics: Risk Valuation in Morocco, Kenya, and Peru
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lybbert,   Travis J.; Galarza,   Francisco B.; McPeak,   John G.; Barrett,   Christopher B.; Boucher,   Stephen R.; Carter,   Michael R.; Chantarat,   Sommarat; Fadlaoui,   Aziz; Mude,   Andrew G.
The effective design and implementation of interventions that reduce vulnerability and poverty require a solid understanding of underlying poverty dynamics and associated behavioral responses. Stochastic and dynamic benefit streams can make it difficult for the poor to learn the value of such interventions to them. We explore how dynamic field experiments can help (i) intended beneficiaries to learn and understand these complicated benefit streams, and (ii) researchers to better understand how the poor respond to risk when faced with nonlinear welfare dynamics. We discuss and analyze dynamic risk valuation experiments in Morocco, Peru, and Kenya.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Poverty; Risk and uncertainty; Dynamics; Experiments; Kenya; Morocco; Peru; International Development; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90791

Crop Insurance for Cherries in Lake County, Montana
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Johnson,   James B.; Stivers,   Jack; Brester,   Gary W.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29200

PROFITS AND RISK: FITTING AN OLD FRAMEWORK TO A NEW AGRICULTURE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Saxowsky,   David M.; Wachenheim,   Cheryl J.
Textbooks in agricultural economics characterize resources used in production agriculture into four categories; land, labor, capital and management.  Profit is presented as earned in the process of management.  This traditional list of resources is respecified.  Management becomes a specialized type of labor and two additional resources, information and the willingness and ability to bear risk, are added.  It is argued that profits accrue not to management but to those willing and able to bear the risk inherent in production agriculture.  The strategy of equity diversification is presented as a means for farmers to provide this resource and thus earn economic profits.  Producer education and the repeal or amendment of legislation restricting the ability of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36133

Modeling agricultural production risk and the adaptation to climate change
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Finger,   Robert; Schmid,   Stephanie.
A model that integrates biophysical simulations in an economic model is used to analyze the impact of climate change on crop production. The biophysical model simulates future plant-management-climate relationships and the economic model simulates farmers' adaptation actions to climate change using a nonlinear programming approach. Beyond the development of average yields, special attention is devoted to the impact of climate change on crop yield variability. This study analyzes corn and winter wheat production on the Swiss Plateau with respect to climate change scenarios that cover the period of 2030-2050. In our model, adaptation options such as changes in seeding dates, changes in production intensity and the adoption of irrigation farming are...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Robust estimation; Yield variation; Corn; Winter wheat; Market liberalization; Environmental Economics and Policy; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9270

Risk and Incentives: A Not-So-Tenuous Trade-off
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kirwan,   Barrett E.; Paulson,   Nicholas D.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104005

A Note Comparing Single-Index Models and Quadratic Programming Models for Farm Planning Under Risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Batterham,   Robert L.; Drynan,   Ross G.; Oarke,   D.K.; Carter,   P.H.
Single-index models from portfolio theory have previously been adapted for risk efficient farm planning in North America. The potential for using single-index models in farm planning is considered in this paper both theoretically and in the light of two illustrative Australian case studies. It is concluded that single-index models have no significant computational or other advantages over full quadratic programming portfolio selection models for farm planning and may produce relatively poor plans and poor assessments of the risks associated with those plans.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1993
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9627

RISK, GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS, AND THE ENVIRONMENT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Roberts,   Michael J.; Osteen,   Craig D.; Soule,   Meredith J.
Nearly all farm business ventures involve financial risk. In some instances, private and public tools used to manage financial risks in agriculture may influence farmers' production decisions. These decisions, in turn, can influence environmental quality. This bulletin summarizes research and provides some perspective on private and public attempts to cope with financial risks and their unintended environmental consequences. Specifically, it examines the conceptual underpinnings of risk-related research, challenges involved with measuring the consequences of risk for agricultural production decisions, government programs that influence the risk and return of farm businesses, and how production decisions influence both the environment and the risk and...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Risk; Agricultural production; Government programs; Environment; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33563

A Methodological Framework to Design and Assess Food Traceability Systems
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bendaoud,   Mhamed; Lecomte,   Catherine; Yannou,   Bernard.
The International Food and Agribusiness Management Review is published quarterly by IFAMA. www.ifama.org
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Traceability; Food tracing; Food safety; Performance system; Information system; Environmental Economics and Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Productivity Analysis; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty; L66; Q.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120861

The Economics of Nested Insurance: The Case of SURE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cooper,   Joseph C.; Sproul,   Thomas W.; Zilberman,   David.
Traditionally, disaster assistance was available on an ad hoc basis, but the 2008 Farm Act provides a standing disaster assistance program known as Supplemental Revenue Assistance (SURE). This paper introduces a theory of nested insurance to evaluate the impact on of SURE on intensification, acreage and adoption. The results suggest that parameters of a government program like SURE may enhance the adoption and value of crop insurance to the farm sector. A quantitative understanding of the interdependencies between programs like SURE and crop insurance, taking into account the nature of the ad hoc alternative, is important in assessing the welfare impacts on farmers, as well as insurance companies. Both our theory and simulation exercise suggest that...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Nested insurance; SURE; Crops; Adoption; Ad hoc; Disaster assistance; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61579

Farm Level Risk Assessment Using Downside Risk Measures
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Berg,   Ernst; Starp,   Michael.
Recent and presumable future developments tend to increase the risk associated with farming activities. This causes an increasing importance of risk management. Farmers have a wide variety of possibilities to influence the risk exposure of their operations. Among them are the choice of the production program as well as marketing activities including forward pricing and hedging with futures and options. In total all these opportunities comprise a portfolio of activities which must be selected as to match the resources of the farm as well as the farmer's attitudes towards risk. The paper addresses this issue using a whole farm stochastic optimisation approach based on a risk-value framework. The paper starts with a discussion of risk-value models and the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Downside risk; Risk management; Risk measure; Risk-value models; Stochastic optimisation; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25400

Federal Crop and Crop Revenue Insurance Programs: Crop Revenue Coverage
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Smith,   Vincent H.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29191

AJAE Appendix: Tournaments, Fairness, and Risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wu,   Steven Y.; Roe,   Brian E.
The material contained herein is supplementary to the article named in the title and published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Volume 88, Number 3, August 2006.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7400

PRICING WEATHER DERIVATIVES FOR AGRICULTURAL RISK MANAGEMENT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Richards,   Timothy J.; Manfredo,   Mark R.; Sanders,   Dwight R.
Existing derivative pricing methods cannot be used to price weather derivatives due to the absence of a hedgeable commodity underlying weather risk and the complexity of weather processes.  This study develops a pricing model that considers weather derivatives to be the same as any other financial asset.  In this way, the price of a weather derivative is an equilibrium price consistent with both the potential payout at expiry and the market price of risk.  We apply this model to the pricing of weather derivatives in the Central Valley of California and find significant differences in prices obtained under alternative weather process assumptions.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Derivative; Monte Carlo; Pricing; Risk weather; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18979

Innovation in Food Networks and Organizational Diversity: A Case Study from the UK Retail Cooperative Sector
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sodano,   Valeria; Hingley,   Martin.
The still ongoing processes of consolidation and globalization affect the organizational diversity of the food system in very complex and somehow contradictory ways. The few transnational companies (TNCs) in whose hands the most part of food processing and distribution activities is concentrated, continuously look for organizational innovations to enhance their profits. Inter-firms collaborative arrangements, global sourcing and sector diversification are some of the most widely followed strategies that require (and/or lead to) new organizational forms. The paper identifies some important patterns of organizational structures and innovation in the food (and specifically food retailing) system, in order to evaluate the role and the competitiveness of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Cooperatives; Local and global competitiveness; Retailing; Regional sourcing; Socially responsible food networks; UK; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59199

Combining risk perception and risk attitude: A comprehensive individual risk behavior model
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: van Winsen,   Frankwin; Wauters,   Erwin; Lauwers,   Ludwig H.; de Mey,   Yann; Van Passel,   Steven; Vancauteren,   Mark.
Although risk management in farming is a well-documented subject in scientific literature, this same literature is usually used only by other scientist and is not aiding individual farmers in their management. Risk perception and risk attitude are well described determinants of risk behaviour but rarely combined in an integrated approach for risk behaviour research. Furthermore in most literature risk attitude is taken as a given stable personality trait on which the optimal behaviour should be based. We argue that risk attitude can be manageable in order to derive optimal risk behaviour. Based on these findings we develop a comprehensive theoretical basic model on farmers risk behaviour. Furthermore a participatory approach involving the stakeholder, the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk management; Risk perception; Risk attitude; Risk behaviour; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115749

Producer preferences towards vertical coordination: The case of Canadian beef alliances
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Steiner,   Bodo E.; Lan,   Kevin; Unterschultz,   James R.; Boxall,   Peter C.; Laate,   Emmanuel; Yang,   Danyi.
A survey among cow-calf producers was conducted during 2006 in Western Canada, to assess producers’ preferences towards participation in beef alliances. Producers’ choices were analyzed by varying the degree of vertical coordination in hypothetical lliance participation, while controlling for producer and farm-specific characteristics to explore risk, transaction cost and incentive considerations in participation decisions. Estimates from the attribute-based choice experiments suggest that information sharing regarding animal performance, revenue-risk and residual claimancy are important factors for producers driving alliance choices. Overall, cowcalf producers are willing to move toward higher levels of vertical coordination based on individual animal...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Beef value chain; Vertical coordination; Canada; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q13; C83; D22.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122441

Cost-Effective Farm-Level Nitrogen Abatement in the Presence of Environmental and Economic Risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ekman,   Sone.
This paper evaluates the consequences of considering environmental and economic risk in the analysis of cost-effective nitrogen abatement options in crop production. A farm-level mathematical programming model incorporating nitrogen leaching variability, field time variability, yield variability, and output price variability is developed. The empirical results reveal that requiring a high reliability with respect to a desired abatement target can be extremely costly, due to the high variability of nitrogen emissions. It appears to be sufficient to reduce average nitrogen load in order to reduce the environmental risk associated with nitrogen leaching variability, since a change to crops with lower average load also results in lower variability of nitrogen...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Nitrogen abatement; Risk aversion; Diversification; Chance constraints; Discrete stochastic programming; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24860

The Risk Attitudes of U.S. Farmers: Comparisons to the General Population and Business Owners
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Roe,   Brian E.
I compare the risk attitudes of a large, representative sample of farmers to representative samples of the general population and of non-farm small business owners using a robust survey measure of risk tolerance. I find no difference between farmers and the general population in average risk tolerance while small business owners are significantly more risk tolerant than farmers. If farmers shared the same demographic profile as the general population, farmers would be significantly more risk tolerant while if farmers shared the profile of nonfarm business owners they would have similar risk tolerance.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farmers; Risk attitudes; Occupational choice; Agricultural and Food Policy; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Political Economy; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q18.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103226

Measurement of Yield distribution: A Time-Varying Distribution Model
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Yang,   Tsung Yu.
Regarding the nature of yield data, there are two basic characteristics that need to be accommodated while we are about to model a yield distribution. The first one is the nonstationary nature of the yield distribution, which causes the heteroscedasticity related problems. The second one is the left skewness of the yield distribution. A common approach to this problem is based on a two-stage method in which the yields are detrended first and the detrended yields are taken as observed data modeled by various parametric and nonparametric methods. Based on a two-stage estimation structure, a mixed normal distribution seems to better capture the secondary distribution from catastrophic years than a Beta distribution. The implication to the risk management is...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Time-Varying Distribution; Mixture Distribution; Crop Insurance; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103422

El valor de la flexibilidad en la valoracion de inversiones acuícolas
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sempere,   Loreto Pardo; Alcaide,   Jose Javier Rodriguez.
Las fuertes inversiones iniciales que son necesarias para comenzar una actividad acuícola, unidas al período tan dilatado del ciclo de explotación y al riesgo que esta actividad comporta, son situaciones que comprometen el futuro de la actividad cuya continuidad pasa necesariamente por la consecución de la viabilidad económica. Por ello, es importante prestar atención a los estudios que justifiquen esta viabilidad económica considerando aspectos tales como la propia flexibilidad operativa o el valor estratégico que tiene cada proyecto de inversión, a menudo considerados factores críticos para la supervivencia. Desde esta perspectiva, se pone de manifiesto la necesidad y la oportunidad de la investigación, basado en la aplicación del método de Opciones...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Aquaculture; Real Options; Risk; Flexibility in operations; Risk and Uncertainty; B41; C15; D81.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28786

THE ECONOMICS OF INSURING CROPS AGAINST DROUGHT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bardsley,   Peter; Abey,   Arun; Davenport,   Scott V.
The necessary conditions for the existence of a financially viable crop insurance scheme against drought are examined. A supply and demand model for crop insurance is developed which identifies the parameters that are critical to the efficiency of such a scheme. The values of these parameters are estimated by using data from the Australian wheat industry. It is found that crop insurance against drought would appear to be unattractive from an efficiency point of view.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1984
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22590

Critical success factors for weather risk transfer solutions in the agricultural sector: a reinsurer's view
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Roth,   Michael; Ulardic,   Christina; Trueb,   Juerg.
Agricultural yield and commodity prices are very sensitive to weather patterns such as drought, excessive rain, or frost. As a result unseasonable weather can cause major losses for players in the agricultural value chain, including input providers, farmers, commodity traders, and food processors. The National Crop Insurance Service (NCIS) estimates that about 70% of the losses suffered by the US crop insurance scheme result from drought or excessive rainfall. In this paper information recorded by PriceWaterhouseCoopers on behalf of the Weather Risk Management Association is complemented by Swiss Re's market intelligence to examine demand patterns for weather risk transfer solutions. There is a particular focus on the evolution of demand from the energy...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural sector; Weather risk transfer; Demand patterns; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9248

PUTTING THE RISK PROTECTION ACT OF 2000 TO WORK: APPLIED MARKETING STRATEGIES (PowerPoint Presentation)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Martines-Filho,   Joao Gomes.
POWERPOINT PRESENTATION
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33092

THE BIG PICTURE - SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING APPLICATIONS IN RANGELAND ASSESSMENT AND CROP INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Atwood,   Joseph A.; Watts,   Tim; Price,   Kevin; Kastens,   Jude.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32807

EX ANTE EVALUATION OF INDEX-BASED CROP INSURANCE EFFECTIVENESS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bokusheva,   Raushan; Breustedt,   Gunnar.
The paper evaluates the effectiveness of several index-based crop insurance schemes by comparing results from two alternative evaluation approaches. We apply the common ex post approach from the literature by specifying and evaluating insurance contracts by means of the data for the same historical period. We introduce an ex ante evaluation approach by distinguishing between two consecutive periods in the available time series: the first period is used for determining insurance parameters and optimal number of farmer’s insurance contracts; and the subsequent one is considered for the evaluation of the risk reduction due to the insurance contract defined as in the first period. Our empirical results based on the data for 40 grain producers in Kazakhstan...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Ex ante analysis; Index-based crop insurance; Weather-based index insurance; Kazakhstan; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43957

A Speculative Bubble in Commodity Futures Prices? Cross-Sectional Evidence
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sanders,   Dwight R.; Irwin,   Scott H.; Merrin,   Robert P.
Recent accusations against speculators in general and long-only commodity index funds in particular, include: increasing market volatility, distorting historical price relationships, and fueling a rapid increase and decrease in commodity inflation. Some researchers have argued that these market participants—through their impact on market prices—may inadvertently prevented the efficient distribution of food aid to deserving groups. Certainly, this result—if substantiated— would counter the classical argument that speculators make prices more efficient and thus improve the economic efficiency of the agricultural and food marketing system. Given the very important policy implications, it is crucial to develop a more thorough understanding of long-only index...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Commitment’s of Traders; Index funds; Commodity futures markets; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53050

The persistence of drought impacts across growing seasons: a dynamic stochastic analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Peck,   Dannele E.; Adams,   Richard M.
Agricultural producers throughout much of the United States experienced one of the most severe droughts in the last 100 years during the years 1999-2006.  The prolonged nature of this drought highlights a need to better understand the impacts and management of drought across growing seasons, rather than just within a growing season.  Producers express specific concern about the tendency of drought impacts to persist even after drought itself has subsided.  The persistence of drought impacts has received limited attention in the economics literature.  The objectives of this study are two-fold: 1) to determine whether inter-year dynamics, in the form of agronomic constraints and financial flows, can cause persistence of a drought's impact in years subsequent...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Drought; Preparedness; Response; Uncertainty; Dynamics; Discrete stochastic programming; Agriculture; Irrigation; Eastern Oregon; Row crops; Crop rotation; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9253

Risk Premia in Tractor and Combine Investments
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mumey,   Glen; Unterschultz,   James R.
A farmer planning to use Net Present Value (NPV) analysis on machinery requires estimates of operating benefits over time, an estimate of terminal or salvage values and a risk-adjusted discount rate. Using financial market information and related Root Mean Square Errors on machinery value forecasts, risk premia for combine and tractor investments are estimated for non-diversified investors. These risk premia can be added to the risk free rate in comparable maturity long term bonds to derive an appropriate discount rate for NPV analysis. Where machines are held as single-asset portfolios, risk premia identified for discounting terminal value vary between 5.5% and 8.3% for combines and between 2.4% and 3.6% for tractors, depending on age during the holding...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1996
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24123

The Inconvenience Cost: A Portfolio Approach to Non-Convergence Between Cash and Futures Prices
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Adjemian,   Michael K.; Kuethe,   Todd H.; Kunda,   Eugene L.
Cash and futures prices should reach equality, or converge, upon contract maturity. Traders can impose convergence during the delivery month through arbitrage behavior: either making or taking delivery on futures contracts. If convergence is not predictable, a futures market fails to provide a clear storage signal to potential inventory holders and reduces the attractiveness of hedging. Recent convergence problems in domestic commodity markets demonstrate the existence of persistent, significant arbitrage opportunities over the second half of the last decade. Yet, terminal elevator operators—perhaps the only participants with the capacity to do so—have not arbitraged away these riskless returns by making enough deliveries. This model demonstrates...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Convergence; Arbitrage; Portfolio Theory; Storage; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; G11; D21; Q14.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61040

UNDERINVESTMENT AND TIMBER RIGHTS: AN EXAMINATION OF THE EARLY TASMANIAN AND VICTORIAN TIMBER INDUSTRIES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pitchford,   R.
This paper distinguishes between the hypothesis that the Victorian government developed a reputation for easy renewal of timber rights, so that the lack of clearly defined site sizes and the short-term nature of these rights did not matter, and the hypothesis that tenure and site size as written in law was the major determinant. A model of a firm's investment choice when there is uncertain tenure is developed to examine the effect of changes in the tenure prospect on capital intensity. The predictions of this model are then used to assess the competing hypotheses with reference to data on capital labour ratios and legislation regarding tenure and site size laws in Victoria and Tasmania from 1890 to 1927.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1994
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22733

Economic Feasibility of Sustainable High Oilseed-Based Biofuel Production: The Case for Biodiesel in North Carolina
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Yeboah,   Anthony K.; Naanwaab,   Cephas B.; Yeboah,   Osei-Agyeman; Owens,   John Paul; Bynum,   Jarvetta S.
We assess the economic feasibility of a 10 MMGY biodiesel plant using a Monte Carlo Cash Flow model programmed in Excel using @Risk, a simulation and risk analysis software.  The model incorporates stochastic components to capture uncertainty in the analysis.  The stochastic components are mainly variables that may exhibit risk, such as input prices, output prices, and expected revenues, and these are assigned probability distributions in the model. The model is programmed with three output variables: stream of revenues,  profits/loss,  and the resulting net present value (NPV) over ten year forecast period.   Results from the cash flow analysis show that average expected revenues from the sale of biodiesel and co-products will be $48.5 million and total...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Economic feasibility; Biodiesel; Monte carlo simulations; Risk analysis; Sensitivity analysis.; Agribusiness; Production Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119729

Are U.S. Corn and Soybeans Becoming More Drought Tolerant?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Yu,   Tian; Babcock,   Bruce A.
An objective drought index that measures the dry and hot conditions adversely affecting crop yields is used in a regression analysis to test whether corn and soybeans have become more drought tolerant. Results indicate that corn yield losses, whether measured in quantity terms or as a percentage of mean yield, have decreased. The null hypothesis that the absolute level of soybean yield losses due to drought has not changed cannot be rejected. But yield losses in percentage terms have decreased over time. Because drought is the primary cause of yield loss in the U.S. crop insurance program and because U.S. crop insurance rates assume that percentage of yield losses are constant over time, these results indicate that U.S. crop insurance rates in the Corn...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Corn; Crop insurance rates; Drought tolerance; Soybean; Yield risk; Crop Production/Industries; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54147

Do Interest Rates Explain Disaggregate Commodity Price Growth?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Franken,   Jason R.V.; Garcia,   Philip; Irwin,   Scott H.
The storage at a loss paradox - inventories despite an inadequate spot-futures price spread to cover storage costs— - is an unresolved issue of long-standing interest to economists.  Alternative explanations include risk premiums for futures market speculators, convenience yields from holding inventories, and mismeasurement/aggregation of data.  Statistical analyses of regional- and elevator-level data suggest that aggregation can impact results, and that soybean price behavior is generally consistent with inter-temporal arbitrage conditions, while corn price behavior points to convenience yields at longer horizons.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21319

A DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING FRAMEWORK FOR USING WEATHER DERIVATIVES TO MANAGE DAIRY PROFIT RISK
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chen,   Gang; Roberts,   Matthew C.
Replaced with revised version of paper 07/19/04.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20171

ESS versus NVZ – The Cost-Effectiveness of Command-and-Control versus Agreement Based Policy Instruments
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sauer,   Johannes; Walsh,   John.
This study empirically investigates the cost-effectiveness of different agri-environmental policy instruments. We compare the Environment Stewardship Scheme (ESS) as an example for a management agreement type instrument, to the Nitrate Vulnerable Zones (NVZ) as an example for a command-and-control type instrument. Both instruments are currently applied in the UK. Based on a simple cost model considering also relevant transaction costs and risk we use different regression and resampling techniques to estimate the marginal effects of different factors with respect to the instruments‟ relative cost-effectiveness and to identify factors for cost variation over space and time. We control for the actual level of compliance by using compliance weighted average...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agri-Environmental Instruments; Costs; Risk; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108963

Real Monetary Incentives and Chained Questions: An Experimental Study Investigating the Validity of Risk Estimates Elicited via Exchangeability Method
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cerroni,   Simone; Notaro,   Sandra; Shaw,   W. Douglass.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114313

Das neue Gentechnikgesetz – ein Gentechnikverhinderungsgesetz? Eine umweltökonomische Analyse der haftungsrechtlichen Neuerungen im Gentechnikgesetz
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Becker,   Alexander; Holm-Muller,   Karin.
In this article, legal consequences of the new German genetic engineering act are analyzed. In addition environmental economic analysis is presented of those parts of the act that introduce new litigation regulation to farmers. The different kinds of external costs arising from genetic engineering of plants and their allocation to different actors are considered. The paper focuses on the costs resulting from the postulated coexistence of conventional/organic farms and users of biotechnology. Excessive liability of farmers can be avoided, if the producers of genetically modified seeds accept any litigation claims against farmers. Furthermore, negotiations between neighbouring farms can be an option to keep the costs of damage prevention at reasonable levels.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Genetic engineering act; Liability; Coexistence; Market loss; Precautionary principle; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97315

Does the price talk match the price walk? - a re-view of evidence
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Haniotis,   Tassos.
Plenary presentation from 123rd EAAE Seminar, 23-24 February, Dublin, Ireland
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122773

INCENTIVES AND STANDARDS IN AGENCY CONTRACTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chambers,   Robert G.
This paper studies the structure of state-contingent contracts in the presence of moral hazard and multi-tasking.  Necessary and sufficient conditions for the presence of multi-tasking to lead to fixed payments instead of incentive schemes are identified.  It is shown that the primary determinant of whether multi-tasking leads to higher or lower powered incentives is the role that noncontractible outputs play in helping the agent deal with the production risk associated with the observable and contractible outputs.  When the noncontractible outputs are socially undesirable and risk substitutes, standards are never optimal.  If the noncontractible outputs are socially desirable, standards are never optimal if the noncontractible outputs play a...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Incentives; Multi-tasking; Agency; Risk complementarity; Risk substitutability; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; D82; L23; L50.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28605

Liquidity Costs in Futures Options Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shah,   Samarth; Brorsen,   B. Wade; Anderson,   Kim B.
The major finding is that liquidity costs in futures options market are two to three times higher than liquidity costs in the futures market. Liquidity cost is one potential factor to consider when choosing between hedging with a futures contract or with an option contract. While there is considerable research that estimates liquidity costs of futures trading, there is little comparable research about options markets. This study, for the first time, attempts to determine and compare liquidity costs in options and futures markets. The study uses July 2007 wheat futures and options contracts traded on Kansas City Board of Trade. Two measures of liquidity costs were used for both options and futures markets. One measure of liquidity costs in options markets...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Bid-ask spread; Black model; KCBT; Liquidity costs; Options; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53047

Lease allocation systems, risk aversion and the resource rent tax
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fraser,   Rob W.
This article examines the case of a risk‐averse mining firm facing a resource rent tax in order both to incorporate the role of the risk‐sharing quality of such a tax and to assess its implications given a government’s lease allocation system. The model develops the conditions required for an investment‐neutral RRT characterised by a threshold rate of return and a rate of tax  and suggests that for an auction system of lease allocation, government revenue could be maximised by setting the tax rate below 100 per cent, but that for a discretionary system, it is in the government’s interest to introduce an RRT which is effectively rate‐of‐return regulation.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117225

SOME RISK MANAGEMENT PRACTICES AMONG THE BEEF CATTLE FARMERS OF THE NORTH WEST PROVINCE OF CAMEROON: EFFECT ON TECHNOLOGY DISSEMINATION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pingpoh,   David Puewoh; Mbanya,   Justin; Ntam,   Fidelis; Malaa,   Dorothy K.
The North West Province of Cameroon is one of the four provinces that account for 90 % of Cameroon's estimated 6 million cattle heads. The cattle production in the area involves the rural poor population who are associated with a reluctance to take risks, presumably because risk taking would jeopardize their subsistence. That being the case, it becomes imperative to know what risk management methods they use. The overall objective of this study was to identify and examine the risk management practiced by the beef cattle farmers in the North West Province of Cameroon so as to determine their effects on technology dissemination. The beef cattle farmers were selected for the survey on the basis of their involvement in beef cattle farming. The researchers...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7912

The Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and the Irreversibility Effect
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Narain,   Urvashi; Hanemann,   W. Michael; Fisher,   Anthony C.
We define the irreversibility effect and demonstrate its importance in problems involving investment decisions under uncertainty. We establish several analytical and numerical results that suggest both that the effect holds more widely than generally recognized, and that an existing result (Epstein's Theorem) giving a sufficient condition for determining whether the effect holds can be applied more widely than previously indicated, in particular to problems involving intertemporally nonseparable benefit functions. We further show that a low elasticity of intertemporal substitution will however result in failure of the effect, but that the effect will hold if the value of information increases in the degree of flexibility.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25101

Emission Permits Trade of Carbon Based on the Game Theory of Double Auction
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Liu,   Na; He,   Jixin; Hou,   Ning; Gu,   Kaiping.
As the world's largest carbon resources country with relatively great carbon emission, China in has just started its carbon trade. China is only a passive participant in international carbon trading market, rarely participating in the project of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Therefore, trade market of emission permits can be divided into first and second trade markets. During the definition of emission right, we found out that the ways of emission trade at second carbon trade market is the key to the research on carbon trade, which can realize the allocation efficiency and utilization efficiency of resources. Then, feasibility of implementing auction system of emission permits trade in China is analyzed from the aspects of legal protection, technical...
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation
Palavras-chave: Carbon emission permits; Game theory; Nash Equilibrium; Allocation efficiency; China; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56347

Do Farmers Choose the Number of Landlords as A Way to Deal with Risks?  Evidence from U.S. Household Level Data
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Qiu,   Feng.
Replaced with revised version of poster 07/21/11.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103716

THE COMMONWEALTH DROUGHT BOND
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Glau,   T.E.
The operation of the drought-bond scheme is described. A special tax concession for primary producers substantially increases the yield after tax on these bonds. The expected yield is calculated for representative marginal tax rates and probabilities of drought. Some deficiencies of the present scheme are discussed and proposals are made which overcome efficiency and equity criticisms.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1970
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22411

Potential demand for hedging by Australian wheat producers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Simmons,   Phil; Rambaldi,   Alicia N.
The potential for hedging Australian wheat with the new Sydney Futures Exchange wheat contract is examined using a theoretical hedging model parametised from previous studies. The optimal hedging ratio for an `average' wheat farmer was found to be zero under reasonable assumptions about transaction costs and based on previously published measures of risk aversion. The estimated optimal hedging ratios were found by simulation to be quite sensitive to assumptions about the degree of risk aversion. If farmers are significantly more risk averse than is currently believed, then there is likely to be an active interest in the new futures market.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1997
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118012

MEASUREMENT OF PRICE RISK IN REVENUE INSURANCE: IMPLICATIONS OF DISTRIBUTIONAL ASSUMPTIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Roberts,   Matthew C.; Goodwin,   Barry K.; Coble,   Keith H.
A variety of crop revenue insurance programs is now available.  These programs require measurement of price risk.  This article investigates the appropriateness of distributional assumptions underlying current and proposed alternative actuarial methods.  Our results find that prices are best modeled using a flexible mixture of normals distribution.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20840

Cooperation in transboundary water sharing under climate change
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bhaduri,   Anik; Manna,   Utpal; Barbier,   Edward B.; Liebe,   Jens.
As multiple countries share a river, the likelihood of a water resource conflict from climate change could be higher between countries. In this paper, we demonstrate how countries can cooperate in transboundary water sharing in a sustainable way, given the impacts of climate change. We illustrate the case of water sharing of the Volta River between the upstream and downstream country, Burkina Faso and Ghana respectively, where the latter country faces a tradeoff of water use between agriculture in the north and production of hydro energy in the south. In the framework of a stochastic Stackelberg differential game, we have shown how the issue of water sharing could be linked to hydropower export that can make water sharing between the countries sustaining...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Climate Change; Water sharing; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51303

YIELD GUARANTEES AND THE PRODUCER WELFARE BENEFITS OF CROP INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Adhikari,   Shyam; Knight,   Thomas O.; Belasco,   Eric J.
Crop yield and revenue insurance products with coverage based on actual production history (APH) yields dominate the U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program. The APH yield, which plays a critical role in determining the coverage offered to producers, is based on a small sample of historical yields for the insured unit. The properties of this yield measure are critical in determining the value of the insurance to producers. Sampling error in APH yields has the potential to lead to over-insurance in some years and under-insurance in other years. Premiums, which are in part determined by the ratio of the APH yield to the county reference yield, are also affected by variations in APH yields. Congress has enacted two measures, yield substitution and yield floors,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Actual Production History; Crop Insurance; Sampling Error; Yield Guarantee; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61476

Estimating Implied Volatility Directly from "Nearest-to-the-Money" Commodity Option Premiums
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Curtis,   Charles E., Jr.; Carriker,   Gordon L.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1988
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116875

Use of Simulation Models to Study the Dynamic of Recall of Non-Conform Perishable Produce through the Supply Chain
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Busato,   Patrizia; Berruto,   Remigio.
The traceability allows, for each product, to sketch the manufacturing process through a system documentary, enabling to identify the operational structures involved, the products and the lots, to define the flows of production, packaging and distribution. There are researches that investigate the traceability within the firm, but little work has been carried out on the investigation of the traceability system over the whole supply chain. The supply-chain of fresh produce is constituted of many links: producer/grower, warehouse, packing centre, distribution centre, retailers and finally the consumer. Each of these is a system itself that interacts with the other components of the supply-chain. The non-conformity could occurs in each of these links. Because...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Traceability; Logistics; Dynamic simulation; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59196

RISK MANAGEMENT AMONG AGRICULTURAL HOUSEHOLDS AND THE ROLE OF OFF-FARM INVESTMENTS IN UASIN GISHU COUNTY, KENYA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Korir,   Luke Kipkurgat.
Farmers face many risks which arise from natural, economic and socio-political environments. Risk sharing institutions like national insurance and credit schemes that help reduce the burden of risk to society are weak in Uasin Gishu county. Private sector insurance products are still in their developing stages and this has prompted farmers to turn to self insurance strategies that include diversification and social mechanisms for coping with risk. Off-farm investment is one of the diversification strategies whose prevalence and effectiveness in risk management have not been evaluated. This study sought to determine risk attitudes of farmers, to identify the determinants of off-farm investments and to investigate the effectiveness of off-farm investments in...
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117806

The Impact of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Vaccination Policy in Importing Countries on U.S. Swine Meat Exports
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Yang,   Shang-Ho; Saghaian,   Sayed H.; Reed,   Michael R.
Our previous research found that FMD Outbreaks in foreign countries have a significant positive influence on U.S. swine meat exports. However, not all of these FMD-affected countries adopted the same treatment policy to ease domestic FMD issues. This study proposes a gravity model with fixed-effect regressions to analyze the effects of FMD in countries that import U.S. swine meat. Annual trade data for seventeen countries are used in this study. This study confirms that different policies change the results from FMD. FMD-affected countries which adopted a vaccination policy have negative impacts on U.S. swine meat exports, and the estimated results did confirm that these seven countries are still very important swine meat markets for the U.S.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: International trade; Foot-and-Mouth Disease; Vaccination policy; Livestock; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56369

SUPPLY RESPONSE TO RISK:  THE CASE OF U.S. PINTO BEANS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ryan,   Timothy J.
A standard model of behavior  under uncertainty is used to suggest price risk variables for use in a positive supply study. The suggested variables are intuitively appealing and empirically tested on Pinto bean data. Linearity is assumed and O.L.S. used. The empirical results show that the risk variables greatly improve the statistical fit of the supply equation, are quantitatively important and that a substantial bias occurs if they are neglected. Policy initiatives to reduce Pinto bean price fluctuations need to consider the risk reducing effects on the supply response.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1977
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32335

A RISK PROGRAMMING ANALYSIS OF CATTLE PROCUREMENT BY BEEF PACKERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Raikes,   Ronald; Sieck,   Gail M.; Miller,   Katherine S.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1978
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30482

ESTIMATING AN UPPER BOUND ON THE PRATT RISK A VERSION COEFFICIENT WHEN THE UTILITY FUNCTION IS UNKNOWN
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: McCarl,   Bruce A.; Bessler,   David A.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1989
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22641

RISK AND SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE: A TARGET-MOTAD ANALYSIS OF THE 92-YEAR "OLD ROTATION"
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Novak,   James L.; Mitchell,   Charles C., Jr.; Crews,   Jerry R.
Target-MOTAD was used to assess the risks and returns of sustainable cotton crop rotations from Auburn University's 92-year "Old Rotation." Study results analyze rotations of continuous cotton, with and without winter legumes; two years of cotton-winter legumes-corn, with and without nitrogen fertilization; and three years of cotton-winter legumes-corn and rye-soybeans double-cropped. Ten years of observations on deviations from target income were used to identify optimal sustainable rotation(s). Study results suggest that diversification in rotations, as well as in crops, results in the least risk for a given level of target income.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1990
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29905

EVALUATING RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES USING STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE WITH A RISK FREE ASSET
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gloy,   Brent A.; Baker,   Timothy G.
The stochastic dominance with a risk free asset (SDRA) criteria are evaluated. Results show that the inclusion of  the risk free asset (combined with the traditional assumptions of  stochastic dominance) produce risk efficiency criteria that are very powerful at narrowing the risk management alternatives relevant for farm manager's further consideration.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21673

Safety Nets or Trampolines? Federal Crop Insurance, Disaster Assistance, and the Farm Bill
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Goodwin,   Barry K.; Rejesus,   Roderick M.
We review the implications of the 2007 Farm Bill for the risk management dimensions of U.S. agriculture and policy. Legislative proposals suggest significant changes in risk management policy, including the introduction of state or national revenue insurance. We also pursue an empirical analysis of the interrelationships of crop insurance, disaster relief, and farm profitability. We find an inverse relationship between disaster assistance and insurance purchases. Our analysis also suggests that farmers that buy insurance and that receive disaster payments tend to have higher returns to farming.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Disaster payments; Farm Bill; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q18.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46980

The Role of Price Risk Management in Mitigating Fed Cattle Profit Exposure
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Belasco,   Eric J.
This study identifies the amount and origin of risk in cattle feedlot operations through the use of simulation techniques.  Ex ante profit risks are evaluated under scenarios with varying levels of price protection through the use of forward pricing.  An empirical probability density function is simulated to capture the mean and variability in prices and cattle production yields within a specified profit under difference assumptions regarding the relative importance of production risk and price risk in overall cattle feeding profits.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Corn prices; Livestock production; Multivariate simulation; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46563

The Role of Risk Aversion and Lay Risk in the Probabilistic Externality Assessment for Oil Tanker Routes to Europe
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bigano,   Andrea; Cassinelli,   Mariaester; Markandya,   Anil; Sferra,   Fabio.
Oil spills are a major cause of environmental concern, in particular for Europe. However, the traditional approach to the evaluation of the expected external costs of these accidents fails to take into full account the implications of their probabilistic nature. By adapting a methodology originally developed for nuclear accidents to the case of oil spills, we extend the traditional approach to the assessment of the welfare losses borne by potentially affected individuals for being exposed to the risk of an oil spill. The proposed methodology differs from the traditional approach in three respects: it allows for risk aversion; it adopts an ex-ante rather than an ex-post perspective; it allows for subjective oil spill probabilities (held by the lay public)...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12120

The Balance of Risk Management in Business Networks and How to Enhance Trust Towards a Collaborative Food Network
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mau,   Markus.
The development in food network perspective forces the demand for a proper configuration of the risks that occur from the ongoing trend towards the globalized supply chain. The paper shows the requirement shift through globalized procurement. As an effect towards long distance purchasing activities the direct control of production, logistics processes and processing are out of direct control for most of the person in charge in downstream processes. Process transparency and information readiness are essential to reduce risk in (e-)business networks. Outputs of this requirement are vertical coordinations through interorganizational agencies as EurepGap and IFS. Especially for brand marks relationship management and vertical coordination are needed to secure...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: BtoB; Information readiness; E-business; Quality control; Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7725

An Investigation of Production Risk, Risk Preferences and Technical Efficiency: Evidence From Rainfed Lowland Rice Farms in the Philippines
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Villano,   Renato A.; O'Donnell,   Christopher J.; Battese,   George E.
Risk plays a vital role in farmers' decisions on input allocations and, therefore, output supply.  This paper provides empirical evidence on the estimation of production risk, risk preferences and technical inefficiency.  An eight-year panel data set is used for 46 rice farmers from a representative rainfed lowland environment in Central Luzon, Philippines.  The heteroskedastic and stochastic frontier frameworks are reconciled and extended to accommodate the risk preferences of farmers in an analysis of production risk.  Results show that technical inefficiency is overstated in risky production environments where farmers are risk-averse.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Production risk; Risk preferences; Technical efficiency; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12953

TESTS FOR THE ROLE OF RISK AVERSION ON INPUT USE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Roosen,   Jutta; Hennessy,   David A.
Agricultural inputs can create negative externalities.  For risk averting agents, risk will alter production decisions while the existence of institutions to insure against adverse states of nature will likely restore decisions toward levels under risk neutrality.  In this paper, conditions are identified on a stochastic technology to test that risk averters choose smaller input levels than risk neutral agents, and that an increase in risk aversion reduces input use.  A robust statistical method (Klecan, McFadden, and McFadden) to test for dominance is adapted to stochastic production relations.  It is found that the first hypothesis is likely true for nitrogen application on Iowa corn.  Weaker evidence is found in favor of the second hypothesis.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Dominance tests; Incomplete risk markets; Ollution; Stochastic technology; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20498

Risk Adjusted Productivity Measures
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Glazyrina,   Anna; Shaik,   Saleem.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Productivity measures; DEA; Hyperbolic distance function; Panel data; Productivity Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56580

ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF INCOME PROTECTION CHOICES FOR WEST TENNESSEE CORN PRODUCERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Philpot,   Walter; Larson,   James A.; Stokes,   Jeffrey R.
Farmers need information about the expected value and variability of net revenues for alternative crop insurance and futures hedging strategies to manage risk.  Specifically, the model will determine which risk management strategies are most desirable under various levels of risk aversion.  The unstable futures basis relation in the data used in the simulation model contributed to increased variability of net revenues.  In general, none of the crop insurance or hedging strategies markedly reduced variability of net revenue and relative riskiness when compared with the cash strategy.  Revenue Assurance strategies were the most effective at setting a floor on net revenues.  As a result, Revenue Assurance products may perform well for extremely risk averse...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21842

Land Conversion Pace under Uncertainty and Irreversibility: too fast or too slow?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Di Corato,   Luca; Moretto,   Michele; Vergalli,   Sergio.
In this paper stochastic dynamic programming is used to investigate land conversion decisions taken by a multitude of landholders under uncertainty about the value of environmental services and irreversible development. We study land conversion under competition on the market for agricultural products when voluntary and mandatory measures are combined by the Government to induce adequate participation in a conservation plan. We study the impact of uncertainty on the optimal conversion policy and discuss conversion dynamics under different policy scenarios on the basis of the relative long-run expected rate of deforestation. Interestingly, we show that uncertainty, even if it induces conversion postponement in the short-run, increases the average rate of...
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Optimal Stopping; Deforestation; Payments for Environmental Services; Natural Resources Management; Risk and Uncertainty; C61; D81; Q24; Q58.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119107

THE REPRESENTATION OF RISK IN ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF SUPPLY: SOME OBSERVATIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Brennan,   John P.
The high correlation between many of the measures used to represent risk in econometric models of supply is demonstrated. A case is made for a very simple measure, the moving range, to be used to represent risk in these models.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1982
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22606

Geographical Diversification: An Application of Copula Based CVaR
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Larsen,   Ryan A.; Leatham,   David J.; Mjelde,   James W.; Wolfley,   Jared L.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119533

RISK MANAGEMENT FOR FARMERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Miller,   Alan; Dobbins,   Craig L.; Pritchett,   James G.; Boehlje,   Michael; Ehmke,   Cole.
Risk is present in all decisions, though often its assessment is skewed to the negative effects. This paper presents material on the sources of risk in agriculture, procedures for managing two types of risks (operational and strategic) and the interaction of time and risk.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28640

Notes on the mathematical basis of the UK Non-Native Organism Risk Assessment Scheme
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hughes,   Gareth.
Two papers published in peer-reviewed journals (Holt, 2006; Holt et al., 2006) describe the mathematical basis of the UK Non-Native Organism Risk Assessment Scheme2. The current risk assessment methodology (specifically including the proposed scoring system and the categorization of responses) has also been peer reviewed in a report by RPS Group Ltd, available on the website of the GB Non-Native Species Secretariat3. In the notes that follow, some previously unreported problems with the mathematical analysis on which the Scheme is based are outlined
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61115

WEATHER DERIVATIVES IN THE PRESENCE OF INDEX AND GEOGRAPHICAL BASIS RISK: HEDGING DAIRY PROFIT RISK
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chen,   Gang; Roberts,   Matthew C.
Weather conditions pose unique risks to dairy producers. Weather derivatives represent a potentially promising approach to augment dairy producers' risk management against adverse weather events. This study examines the effect of basis risk in weather derivatives, and whether the existence of basis risk mitigates the usefulness of weather derivatives for dairy risk management. Assuming a representative dairy producer has access to both weather derivatives and traditional heat abatement equipment, a closed-form solution for his/her optimal portfolio choice problem in the presence of basis risk is derived within a mean-variance utility framework. First-, second-, and third- degree stochastic dominance criteria are used to test the risk management...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19030

TOPPING INFORMAL RISK POOLING WITH INDEXED INSURANCE: A VAR APPLICATION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Miriti,   M'Kiaira Kimathi.
Value at Risk (VaR) is applied to investigate the potential of incentives for member selection in an index insuring mutual group of farmers.  Member selection could have far reaching impications of introducing indexed insurance in smallholder economies.  Results indicate that there are no incentives for member selection.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20239

The Evolution of Risk Management Education: An Evaluation of Past and Present Demand
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Garcia,   Alexis Arthur B.; Belasco,   Eric J.; Knight,   Thomas O.; Coble,   Keith H.; Mitchell,   Paul D.; Rejesus,   Roderick M.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk Management Education; Multivariate Ordered Probit; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61478

The Design of Multiyear Crop Insurance Contracts
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chen,   Ying-Erh; Goodwin,   Barry K.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61644

Ranching, Invasive Annual Grasses, and the External Costs of Wildfire in the Great Basin: A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kobayashi,   Mimako; Rollins,   Kimberly S.; Taylor,   Michael H.
The spread of invasive annual grasses and resulting escalation of wildfire frequency and severity pose a significant and growing threat to the economic and ecological viability of the rangelands in the Great Basin. While private ranchers have the option to limit the severity of wildfires through fuels removal treatments, few ranchers engage in such land treatments. Without internalizing the public cost of wildfire suppression in the decision problem, private ranchers likely to under-invest in fuels treatments. In this article, using a bio-economic model of rancher decision making, we analyze the private incentives for engaging in land treatments. We find that the downside shocks on available grazing land due to wildfires are proportionately smaller for...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61869

How Much Can We Learn About Producers' Utility Functions from Their Production Data?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lence,   Sergio H.
A thought experiment is designed to investigate whether the structure of risk aversion (i.e., the changes in absolute or relative risk aversion associated with changes in wealth) can be estimated with reasonable precision from agricultural production data.  Findings strongly suggest that typical production data are unlikely to allow identification of the structure of risk aversion.  A flexible utility parameterization is found to slightly worsen technology parameter estimates.  Results also indicate that even under a restricted utility specification, utility parameter estimates are biased.  Further, their quality is much worse when shocks are not large or samples are small.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Expected utility; Risk preferences; Production analysis; Risk attitudes; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; C13; D24; D81; Q12.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119534

Preference for Risk Management Information Sources: Implications for Extension and Outreach Programming
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rejesus,   Roderick M.; Knight,   Thomas O.; Jaramillo,   Mauricio; Coble,   Keith H.; Patrick,   George F.; Baquet,   Alan E.
This article examines farmers’ preferences for various risk management information sources. Our results suggest that information from risk management experts, in-depth materials studied on their own, and popular press outlets tend to be preferred and are ranked highly by producers. Using a regression model to investigate farmer/farm attributes that affect preference for a particular risk management information source, we find that younger farmers with college education, higher leverage, assets greater than $1 million, risk-loving attitudes, and who have used professional services (marketing consultants) tend to prefer information from risk management experts, the Internet, and marketing clubs/other producers. On the other hand, producers who prefer...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Extension; Information sources; Outreach; Risk management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44742

How strong is the “natural hedge”? The effects of crop acreage and aggregation levels
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Finger,   Robert.
The level of natural hedge, i.e. the (negative) correlation between price and yield levels, is an important determinant for farmers’ income risks and their demand for risk management instruments. The natural hedge is often approximated with correlations observed at more aggregated levels, e.g. the county level. This induces biases because the natural hedge at the farm-level is smaller than on more aggregated levels. In this paper, we put this idea one step forward and investigate the empirical relationship between price-yield correlations and the underlying crop acreage, using farm-level data for 5 crops in Switzerland. We find that, for instance, a 1% increase in area under maize and intensive barley leads to a change in the correlation by -0.02 and...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Price-yield correlation; Aggregation bias; Crop insurance; Risk and Uncertainty; Q1; G2.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122538

Modeling the Crop Insurance Industry Portfolio Gains and Losses (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vergara,   Oscar; Zuba,   Gerhard; Seaquist,   Jack.
Powerpoint slide show presenting information about AIR (the first catastrophic modeling company), weather-based yield models, agricultural portfolio loss model, and applications to crop insurance/reinsurance.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Crop insurance; Reinsurance; Modeling; Agricultural loss; Loss model; Yield model; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43766

DEVELOPING A SCALE FOR ASSESSING RISK ATTITUDES OF AGRICULTURAL DECISION MAKERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bard,   Sharon K.; Barry,   Peter J.
This study adapts a methodology formulated in the social sciences to develop a scale for measuring an economic agent’s attitude toward risk.  The scale assesses risk attitudes by eliciting farmers’ opinions towards risk management tools using a Likert procedure.  The methodology validates the scale with a scientific risk attitude measure and compares the scale to the farmers’ self-assessment of their risk attitudes.  The resulting scale methodology could be administered to people without the need for personal interviews.  The subjects for this study were Midwestern farmers, but the methodology can be applied to any sector of the agricultural industry.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34573

Demand for Optional Units in Crop Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shaik,   Saleem; Atwood,   Joseph A.
This article demonstrates the importance of temporal-spatial yield, acreage and price risk apart from price in addressing the importance of optional unit provision in Federal crop insurance program.  Specifically, based on 1998 U.S. cotton producers data, the demand for optional versus basic unit is examined using binomial logit model.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21890

IMPLICATIONS OF CROP INSURANCE FOR FARMERS AND LENDERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Leatham,   David J.; McCarl,   Bruce A.; Richardson,   James W.
The effect of the farmer's choice of crop insurance was evaluated on both the farmer's and lender's performance.  This was done using whole-farm, Monte Carlo simulation for Texas wheat/sorghum operations.  Results indicate crop insurance would be preferred by moderately risk-averse farmers when farm firm failure became an issue or the insurance loss ration approached one.  A lender always preferred the use of crop insurance, especially when the probability of firm bankruptcy was an issue.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1987
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30193

ASSESSMENT OF THE RISK MANAGEMENT POTENTIAL OF A RAINFALL BASED INSURANCE INDEX AND RAINFALL OPTIONS IN ANDHRA PRADESH, INDIA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Veeramani,   Venkat N.; Maynard,   Leigh J.; Skees,   Jerry R.
Crop insurance is an alternative risk management technique available to farmers for stabilizing their revenue risk and schemes based on area yield have been in operation for quite some time. Here rainfall based insurance indices and options are suggested as a replacement for the expensive area yield programs. Instead of direct premium subsidies which are distorting, premium subsidy is taken as a function of adverse deviation of rainfall from the mean. A sensitivity analysis at different revenue elasticity levels with respect to rainfall was performed. Potential for private insurer's and reinsurer's participation exists with rainfall based index and options.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22183

Which factors drive which volatility in the grain sector?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ott,   Herve.
The present paper attempts to find empirical evidence on volatility in the grain sector (wheat, corn and soybean). The first challenge is to measure volatility. Intra-year volatility, inter-year volatility in level and return, also conditional volatility are defined and then calculated. The second challenge is to determine which factors impact volatility. The results show that depending on how volatility is measured, factors driving volatility are very different regarding their quantitative importance. Low stock to use ratio drives up mostly intra-year volatility but only moderately inter-year volatility and has almost no impact on conditional volatility. In contrast, a well functioning international market (trade flows without restriction) lowers...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Volatility; Agricultural commodities; Risk and Uncertainty; C26; C32; Q11.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122486

An Empirical Investigation of the Impacts of Government Program Payments on Farmland Rental Rates
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Qiu,   Feng; Gervais,   Jean-Philippe; Goodwin,   Barry K.
The paper investigates the capitalizations of aggregate and disaggregate government subsidies into farmland rental rates using selection bias correction models. It investigates cash as well as share rental rates, which are largely used in US agriculture. The empirical results suggest that government subsidies have large significant effects on rental rates. More specifically, we find that landlords capture 37%-38% of the aggregate subsidies under cash leases, and 86%-88% under share contracts. Disaggregate farm programs are also found to have different impacts on rental rates according to the types of programs and leasing arrangements.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61340

SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF FEEDER CATTLE HEDGING RISK
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Coffey,   Brian K.; Anderson,   John D.; Parcell,   Joseph L.
Optimal hedge ratios are estimated for various weights of feeder cattle in four cash markets based on CME data from 1992 to 1999.  Three-month uniform hedges are simulated for every weight, contract, and cash market combination.  Hedging effectiveness is compared empirically across locations to identify spatial differences in hedging risk.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Feeder cattle; Hedging risk; Hedge ratios; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36586

The effect of privity and liability sharing on product safety and vertical integration
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Perloff,   Jeffrey M.; Wolf,   Robert G.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Accidents; Manufactures; Vertical integration; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1984
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/47010

MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR INDONESIAN SMALL-HOLDER RUBBER PRODUCTION IN SOUTH SUMATRA: A BIOECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Purnamasari,   Ririn S.; Cacho,   Oscar J.; Simmons,   Phil.
A simplified version of the BEAM Rubber Agroforestry Model is embedded in a dynamic economic model to examine the impact of uncertainty about prices and climate on decision variables.  Solutions, in terms of optimal levels for decision variables are found using a Monte Carlo stochastic framework.  These solutions were used to derive risk-efficient frontiers corresponding to different levels of the decision variables.  The results underline the importance of including uncertainty in dynamic bioeconomic systems since profits under uncertainty turned out to be quite different from those obtained with prices and climate assumed to be constant.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Bioeconomics; Stochastic analysis; Rubber; Indonesia; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12936

Managing Irrigation Risk with Inflow-Based Derivatives: The Case of Rio Mayo Irrigation District in Sonora, Mexico
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Leiva,   Akssell J.; Skees,   Jerry R.
Uncertain reservoir inflows represent a major source of risk for irrigated agriculture. A derivative instrument that uses reservoir inflows as the underlying variable is designed and tested with a recursive stochastic simulation of the Rio Mayo irrigations system. The results indicate that the instrument effectively protects against downside risk.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19448

A DERIVATIVE SECURITY APPROACH TO SETTING CROP REVENUE COVERAGE INSURANCE PREMIUMS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Stokes,   Jeffrey R.
The nature of indemnities and reliance on futures price averaging during two distinct time intervals throughout the production year imply Crop Revenue Coverage (CRC) insurance behaves like an exotic put option. Treating this type of insurance as a derivative security, an analytical model is developed and an algorithm for solving the model to place a lower bound on insurance premiums is presented. Monte Carlo simulation, taking into account the path-dependent nature of an Asian-type option, is then used to determine lower-bound estimates for insurance premiums on corn gross revenue under specified price and yield distributions.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30839

Impacts of Retailers’ Pricing Strategies for Produce Commodities on Farmer Welfare
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Li,   Chenguang; Sexton,   Richard J.
The typical model of retail pricing for produce products assumes retailers set price equal to the farm price plus a certain markup. However, observations from scanner data indicate a large degree of price dispersion in the grocery retailing market. In addition to markup pricing behavior, we document three alternative leading pricing patterns: fixed (constant) pricing, periodic sale, and high-low pricing. Retail price variations under these alternative pricing regimes in general have little correlation with the farm price.   How do retailers’ alternative pricing behaviors affect farmers’ welfare? Using markup pricing as the baseline case, we parameterize the model to reflect a prototypical fresh produce market and carry out a series of simulations under...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Retail price; Produce commodity; Farmer welfare; Expected utility; Harvest cost; Risk averse; Mean-variance utility; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Industrial Organization; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty; Q110; Q130; L100; M310.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51720

NASYP: Online expert tool on the control of major-accident hazards involving dangerous substances
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kahuda,   Daniel; Vach,   Marek; Cerba,   Otakar; Krivanek,   Zbynek; Jezek,   Jan; Charvat,   Karel; Vohnout,   Premysl; Dvorak,   V.
NASYP is an online Geoportal tool being developed in cooperation with state and regional authorities to improve insufficient practices based on implementation of Directive nr. 2003/105/ES on the control of major-accident hazards involving dangerous substances. The tool is applicable for managing the permits, reporting and regular monitoring issues. Furthermore, it’s applicable for a risk assessment and a rapid management of disasters in the initial phase. There’re simple modeling tools included to simulate early stages of the contamination caused by disasters occurred to be used for decision making and effective use of emergency services. In this manner, there’re low atmospheric and surface water pollutions taken into account. For the study area, Liberec...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Spatial data; Geoportal; Risk management; Modelling; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; GA; IN.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116384

Creating insurance markets for natural disaster risk in lower income countries: the potential role for securitization
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Skees,   Jerry R.; Barnett,   Barry J.; Murphy,   Anne G.
This paper considers the potential for securitizing index-based insurance products that transfer weather and natural disaster risks from lower income countries. The paper begins with a brief overview of why markets for natural disaster risks are important in lower income countries and a review of some recent activities using index-based weather insurance. Next, the paper explains how natural disaster risks are handled in higher income countries. These examples along with the example of an innovative index-based livestock insurance pilot project in Mongolia illustrate how layers, or tranches, of natural disaster risk can be financed during the product development phase by creating structures similar to the Special Purpose Vehicles used in catastrophe bond,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Catastrophe risk; Index insurance; Weather risks; Socially responsible investing; Reinsurance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9272

INCORPORATING RISK IN EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shaik,   Saleem; Helmers,   Glenn A.
Using a non-parametric linear programming approach, our contribution is (1) to examine the impact of incorporating risk in efficiency analysis and (2) to compare the efficiency measures with and without risk for continuous and rotation cropping systems.  The model uses Nebraska cropping system data for the period, 1986-2000.  Results indicate lower efficiency gains are realized with the incorporation of risk.  The t-test at the 5% level of significance examining if efficiency measures are significantly different from one is also reported.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Efficiency; Non-parametric; Cropping Systems; Risk and Uncertainty; O3; C6; Q1.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35063

Managing Crop Production Risk with Crop Index Insurance Products
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Deng,   Xiaohui; Barnett,   Barry J.; Yu,   Yingzhuo; Hoogenboom,   Gerrit.
Index crop insurance products can eliminate the asymmetric information problem inherent in farm-level multiple peril crop insurance. Purchasers of index insurance products are, however, exposed to basis risk. This study examines the feasibility of various index insurance products for corn farms in southern Georgia.  Index insurance products considered are based on county yields, cooling degree days, and predicted yields from a crop simulation model.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35607

Transition to Organic Cropping Systems under Risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Archer,   David W.; Kludze,   Hillarius.
We analyze the risks, returns and optimal adoption strategies for a representative Minnesota farm switching from conventional to organic cropping systems. The EPIC simulation model was calibrated based on the yields observed in a farming systems field study. A farm-level simulation model was constructed using the EPIC simulated crop yields and historical prices.  Results were compared for an expected utility maximizing farm under a range of risk aversion levels, with and without management learning curves and biological transition effects.  A dynamic programming model was then constructed to evaluate the joint effects of machinery replacement decisions, learning curves, and biological transition effects on optimal adoption strategies. Results show that...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21278

ESTIMATION OF RISK AVERSION COEFFICIENTS FOR DRYLAND WHEAT AND IRRIGATED CORN ENTERPRISES IN KANSAS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Abdulkadri,   Abdullahi O.; Langemeier,   Michael R.
The risk attitudes of dryland wheat and irrigated corn enterprises in Kansas have been examined in this paper using the nonlinear mean-standard deviation approach.  Our results showed that dryland wheat enterprises are characterized by increasing absolute and increasing relative risk aversion.  The level of wealth is noted to have an impact on risk attitudes.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21658

Characteristics and Risk Management Needs of Limited-Resource and Socially Disadvantaged Farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dismukes,   Robert; Harwood,   Joy L.; Bentley,   Susan E.
Small U.S. farms and those run by socially disadvantaged minority operators tend not to purchase insurance or to participate in insurance-type programs operated by USDA. This report traces the lack of use of such risk management measures to several characteristics of such farmers, who include females, blacks, American Indians, Asian/Pacific Islanders, and operators of Spanish origin. These farmers tend, more than the typical U.S. farm, to raise livestock rather than crops, and there are no government-sponsored insurance-type programs for livestock.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Risk management; Crop insurance; Limited-resource farmers; Limited-opportunity farmers; Small farms; Socially disadvantaged farmers; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1997
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33622

DYNAMIC RISK MANAGEMENT UNDER CREDIT CONSTRAINTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nyambane,   Gerald G.; Hanson,   Steven D.; Myers,   Robert J.; Black,   J. Roy.
The vast majority of previous studies on farmers' optimal risk management behavior have used static models and on the most part ignored use of borrowing and lending as an alternative method of managing risk In this paper we develop a stylized multi-period risk management model for a risk averse farmer who can use revenue insurance to manage risk and also borrow and lend subject to a credit constraint. The model is applied to an example farm from Adair County in Iowa and the results provide three important messages. First, contrary to the full coverage of actuarially fair insurance result expected from using purely static analysis, at low revenues, insurance coverage may not be taken in the absence of debt. Second, if debt is available, full coverage will...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19072

Have policy and market shifts made agricultural commodity prices more or less volatile? Yes!
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Meyer,   Seth D.
Plenary presentation from 123rd EAAE Seminar, 23-24 February, Dublin, Ireland
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122776

The SURE Program: An Investigation of Moral Hazard Opportunities and Adverse Selection Effects
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bekkerman,   Anton; Smith,   Vincent H.; Watts,   Myles J.
The Supplemental Revenue Assistance Payments (SURE) program, introduced in the 2008 Farm Bill, provides disaster aid payments to producers in counties eligible for disaster payments and individual producers with crop production losses that exceed 50% of their expected yields. We show that the program’s "rules of the game" create moral hazard and adverse selection incentives. Then, we empirically analyze possible moral hazard and adverse selection behavior in response to the SURE program by corn, soybean, and wheat producers. Results suggest that recent increases in crop insurance participation may be due to increased moral hazard and adverse selection incentives.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124178

INFLUENCES OF HUMAN CAPITAL AND FARM CHARACTERISTICS ON FARMERS' RISK ATTITUDES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Perry,   Janet E.; Johnson,   James D.
We have two objectives for this paper.  The first is to develop an index reflective of farmers' attitudes towards risk. In addition, we show how the risk indices are distributed by size of farm and other farm and operator characteristics, providing information as to how risk management tools may be used, and farm policies targeted. This information will be useful to help explain agricultural sector structural change, such as complex business arrangements arising in agriculture, and household portfolio investment choices.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Labor and Human Capital; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19581

Stopping Start-Ups: How the Business Cycle Affects Entrepreneurship
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Yu,   Li; Orazem,   Peter F.; Jolly,   Robert W.
This study analyzes whether economic conditions at the time of labor market entry affect entrepreneurship, using difference in business start-ups between cohorts of college students graduating in boom or bust economic conditions. Those graduating during an economic bust tend to delay their business start-ups relative to boom period graduates by about two years. Those results are consistent with additional findings that higher unemployment rates at time of graduation significantly delay the first business start-up across all college graduation cohorts over the 1982-2004 period. The adverse effect of a bust is temporary, delaying but not preventing self-employment over the life-cycle.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Community/Rural/Urban Development; Demand and Price Analysis; Financial Economics; Labor and Human Capital; Marketing; Political Economy; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54083

MANAGING RISK BY COORDINATING INVESTMENT, MARKETING, AND PRODUCTION STRATEGIES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Johnson,   Donald A.; Boehlje,   Michael.
This study of the farm firm integrates long run investment and financial decisions, and short-run production and marketing decisions into a single decision framework that includes both time and risk.  The results suggest that the use of various strategies for managing market risks allow the entrepreneur to accept mores risk in investing and producing; and that an integrated analysis of production, marketing and investment-financing alternatives is essential to make accurate recommendations about risk management strategies.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1983
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32087

Investigating Demand for Weather Index Insurance: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Norton,   Michael T.; Holthaus,   Eric; Madajewicz,   Malgosia; Osgood,   Daniel E.; Peterson,   Nicole; Gebremichael,   Mengesha; Mullally,   Conner; Teh,   TseLing.
There is much interest in weather index insurance as a poverty‐mitigating tool, but concerns persist about potential demand for the product among the poorest of the poor. This paper relates the experiences in rural areas of Tigray region, Ethiopia through both commercial sign‐up data and a series of experimental games conducted to test demand for weather index insurance. Demand was observed to be considerable in both.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104022

RISK MANAGEMENT THROUGH ALTERNATIVE PRODUCTION PRACTICES AND MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES: DISCUSSION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Robinson,   John R.C.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15386

Knowledge Management in the Food Supply Chain
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rodriguez Monroy,   Carlos; Fuentes-Pila,   Joaquin; Martinez Soto,   Moises E.; Velasco,   Julia; Morris,   Anne.
The object of the present article is to discuss Knowledge Management (KM) in the Agrifood Supply Chain (ASC). In the 21st century, the ASC is under strong tensions. This is evident in the drastic changes in the global scene. For example, in the year 2008, food prices were high and unstable. In the last years, the importance of knowledge as a source of competitive advantage for organizations has increased considerably, so it is necessary its management in the ASC in order to surpass the challenges of the 21st century. KM is a direction tool that focuses in determining, organizing, directing, providing and supervising the practices and activities related with the knowledge (intangible active) required to achieve the strategies and objectives of the business...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Management; Knowledge; Agrifood supply chain; Price stability; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59188

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Price and Yield Risk Management Products in Reducing Revenue Risk for Southeastern Crop Producers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Davis,   Todd D.
A non-parametric simulation model incorporating price and yield risk determined gross revenue less risk management costs for corn, cotton, and soybeans produced with and without irrigation.  Risk management alternatives protecting price risk, yield risk, and combinations of price and yield were simulated.  Combination strategies provided the greatest revenue risk reduction.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35577

The Economic Value of the Precision Disease Management System for Anthracnose and Botrytis Fruit Rot for the Florida Strawberry Industry
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vorotnikova,   Ekaterina; VanSickle,   John J.; Borisova,   Tatiana.
The objective of this study was to examine the economic benefits associated with precision fungicide application system for Florida strawberry production. Given the weather and disease forecast system developed by the University of Florida researchers (Peres, 2010a , strawberry growers can potentially 1) reduce fungicide application rates during cool and dry conditions without affecting yields, thus reducing production costs; or 2) apply fungicide at the precise time of high disease pressure during warm and wet weather, therefore, decreasing disease development and spread, and increasing the yields and profits.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Fungicide application reduction; Precision disease management system; Strawberry; Effect on yield; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119791

Modelling the Impact of Compulsory FMD Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jansson,   Torbjorn; Norell,   Bo; Rabinowicz,   Ewa.
This paper compares two ways of financing the combating of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in the EU and uses a simulation model to determine the welfare and production implications of the two systems. The two systems analysed are (i) financing by the tax payers, resembling the system currently in place, and (ii) a compulsory insurance scheme where all costs are converted into regionally differentiated insurance premiums that are paid by the producers. The analysis indicates that welfare gains may be realised by shifting from the former to the latter financing system.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Foot and mouth disease; Insurance scheme; Risk and Uncertainty; D61; Q18.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24519

Management of climate risks in the wine sector: a field study on risky behaviour
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ben Salk,   Sana; Blondel,   Serge; Daniel,   Christophe; Deffains-Crapsky,   Catherine; Jutard,   Catherine; Sejourne,   Bruno.
In agriculture, there is need for a deeper analysis of management of climate risks, because the farmers appear to have a paradoxical position: they perceived that they are strongly exposed to climate risks but, they do not want to pay for adapted tools, arguing that this is too expensive or complex. However, under risk, it is well-known that the decision-makers could be subject to paradox (Allais for example). Our assumption is that to know better the behaviours of farmers in general risky situations will help to understand their reluctance to use the weather market. We conducted a study over the wine growers in the Maine-et-Loire department. 60 wine growers have responded to the questionnaire about climate risk management, and 29 amongst them have...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Expected utility; Field experiments; Management of climate risks; Paradoxes; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9251

On Trade Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility and Institutional Quality: The Case of Central European Countries
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ferto,   Imre; Fogarasi,   Jozsef.
This paper explores the effect of exchange rate volatility and of the institutional quality on international trade flows of transition economies in Central European Countries by applying a gravity model of balance panel between 1999 and 2008. The results show that nominal exchange rate volatility has had a significant negative effect on trade by applying Psuedo-Maximum-Likelihood (PML) estimator method over this period. The institutional quality need to be improved in case of size of government and the quality of regulation. The negative effect of exchange rate volatility on agricultural exports suggests that joining Central European Countries to the euro zone can reduce the negative effects of exchange rate volatility on trade.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: International trade; Gravity model; Exchange rate volatility; Institutions.; International Relations/Trade; Risk and Uncertainty; G10; F11; O17; Q17; P29.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122510

MEASURING HISTORICAL RISK IN QUARTERLY MILK PRICES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ford,   Beth Pride; Musser,   Wesley N.; Yonkers,   Robert D.
Various methods have been used to estimate risk indices with historical data. An industry perception of increasing milk price risk over time provides a standard for evaluating several techniques used to measure historical risk. Risk measures from a regression model and an ARIMA model were consistent with the perception of increasing risk.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1993
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31635

Speculative impacts on grains price volatility
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gilbert,   Christopher L.
The paper examines the impact of changes in the positions of financial actors on the volatilities of Chicago grains and vegetable oil prices using a GARCH-X framework within which a variant of Granger-causality tests can be performed. The paper analyses both the position data in the post-2006 CFTC Commitments of Traders reports and the data on index provider positions in the Supplemental reports. A test of the Masters hypothesis that index trading increase volatility fails to find support.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122540

Yield trend estimation in the presence of non-constant technological change and weather effects
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Conradt,   Sarah; Bokusheva,   Raushan; Finger,   Robert; Kussaiynov,   Talgat.
The application of yield time series in risk analysis prerequisites the estimation of technological trend which might be present in the data. In this paper, we show that in presence of highly volatile yield time series and non-constant technology, the consideration of the weather effect in the trend equation can seriously improve trend estimation results. We used ordinary least squares (OLS) and MM, a robust estimator. Our empirical analysis is based on weather data as well as farm-level and county-level yield data for a sample of grain-producing farms in Kazakhstan.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Yield detrending; Weather information; Robust trend estimation; Aggregation; Risk and Uncertainty; Q19.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122541

Indifference Pricing of Weather Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Xu,   Wei; Odening,   Martin; Musshoff,   Oliver.
This article develops an Indifference Pricing model for a weather derivative that is traded over the counter. The model is used to calculate ask and bid prices for a put option on a weather index in Germany. We find that under moderate risk aversion the maximal bid prices of grain producers exceed the minimal sell prices of insurers only for a few regions and crops, due to the presence of basis risk. Another finding is that the actuarially fair price may lead to wrong conclusions about the market potential of weather insurance.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Weather insurance; Indifference pricing model; Basis risk; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9267

Die Quantifizierung von Marktrisiken in der Tierproduktion mittels Value-at-Risk und Extreme-Value-Theory
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Odening,   Martin; Hinrichs,   Jan.
The objective of this paper is to investigate the performance of different Value-at-Risk (VaR) models in the context of risk assessment in hog production. The paper starts with a description of traditional VaR models, i.e. Variance-Covariance-Method (VCM) and Historical Simulation (HS). We address two well known problems, namely the fat tailedness of return distributions and the time aggregation of VaR forecasts. Afterwards, Extreme-Value-Theory (EVT) is introduced in order to overcome these problems. The previously described methods are then used to calculate the VaR of hog production under German market conditions. It turns out that EVT, VCM, and HS lead to different VaR forecasts if the return distributions are fat tailed and if the forecast horizon is...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Value-at-risk; Extreme-value-theory; Risk in hog production; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98092

Agricultural Contracting Update:  Contracts in 2008
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: MacDonald,   James M.; Korb,   Penelope J.
Marketing and production contracts covered 39 percent of the value of U.S. agricultural production in 2008, up from 36 percent in 2001, and a substantial increase over 28 percent in 1991 and 11 percent in 1969. However, aggregate contract use has stabilized in recent years and no longer suggests a strong trend. Contracts between farmers and their buyers are reached prior to harvest (or before the completion stage for livestock)and govern the terms under which products are transferred from the farm. Contracts are far more likely to be used on large farms than on small farms, and they form one element in a package of risk management tools available to farmers. Production contracts are used widely in livestock production, while marketing contracts are...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Production contracts; Marketing contracts; Farm structure; Farm size; Farm income; Contracting; Agricultural Resource Management Survey; ARMS; Risk analysis; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101279

JAAE Back page
Provedor de dados: 31
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; International Development; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120441

THE EFFECT OF FERTILISER ON RISK: A HETEROSCEDASTIC PRODUCTION FUNCTION WITH MEASURABLE STOCHASTIC INPUTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rosegrant,   Mark W.; Roumasset,   James A.
The sources of production risk are many and diverse in nature. Estimating risk as a black box, without explicit recognition of its sources, can lead to inferior estimates of optimal inputs under risk aversion. In this paper, a method is presented for estimating production functions with measurable stochastic inputs and for generating the parameters of the probability distributions of yield for various environments and input levels. Based on this method, it appears that moderate risk aversion can account for a 6.7 per cent to 16.7 per cent reduction in nitrogen use (relative to the risk-neutral solution) for selected rice producing areas of the Philippines. Estimating optimal inputs without environment specific information about the sources of risk leads to...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1985
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22518

Agent Behavior under Risky and Uncertain Conditions. An Empirical Verification of Irving Fisher’s Notion of Time Preference
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Balgah,   Roland Azibo; Buchenrieder,   Gertrud.
Irving Fisher's theory on time preference in the 1930s arguably influenced the analysis of agents' current behavior with respect to future outcomes. By suggesting linear discount rates implying rational and self-interested motives of agents, Fisher substantiated neoclassical economic thinking. However, Fisher's notion of time preference, the choice between present and future enjoyment that actually integrates a psychological discounting component has not received similar attention in the scholarly literature. This paper aims at closing this gap. It empirically examines agent behavior under uncertain conditions culminating from natural shocks, and differentiates the psychic from the physical component. To empirically test Fisher's notion of time preference,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risks; Uncertainty; Agent behavior; Fisher; Time preference; Cameroon; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114214

TRADING UNDER RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN AN AGRICULTURAL WATER MARKET IN CHILE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hadjigeorgalis,   Ereney.
Risk and uncertainty in a water market will generate trading patterns that differ from those expected under conditions of perfect foresight.  Although trades will occur based on differences in VMPs of water in both markets, they will also be generated by differences in risk.  Some farmers will choose to reduce relative risk by purchasing additional water rights whereas others will hold few rights and rely on the spot market to meet their needs in dry years.  Since spot markets are riskier than permanent rights markets, farmers who are better able to bear risk are more likely to participate in the spot market than those who are not.  Farmers who face less risk will be sellers in both markets whereas farmers who face more risk will be buyers.  Perennial crop...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Uncertainty; Water markets; Spot markets; Permanent rights markets; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21494

ON THE REVELATION OF ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION OF THE PRIVATE INSURANCE COMPANIES IN THE US CROP INSURANCE PROGRAM
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ker,   Alan P.; Ergun,   A. Tolga.
The participation of intermediaries in either public policy or private markets can be justified on the basis of efficiency gains.  With respect to private insurance company involvement in the U.S. crop insurance program, efficiency gains may arise from either decreased transaction costs through better established delivery channels and/or the revelation of asymmetric information.  Although anecdotal evidence indicates that delivery costs are excessive that question is better left for forensic accountants.  We focus on the revelation of asymmetric information.  Specifically, we test if insurance companies reveal asymmetric information to the government via their allocation decisions and discuss the policy implications.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21898

DYNAMIC PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT UNDER RISK AND SUBSISTENCE CONSTRAINTS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zimmerman,   Frederic; Carter,   Michael R.
This paper presents a model that endogenizes asset-based risk- coping in an environment of unmediated risk and subsistence constraints. It uses an individually-rational, stochastic dynamic programming model to explore intertemporal portfolio decisions in an environment in which both yield risk and endogenous asses-price risk exist. The results show that agents pursue one the three distinct investment strategies, depending on their initial wealth levels. Agents who are too poor to support subsistence at a sustainable level eventually stock out, driving their asset base to zero. Agents who have more than a certain threshold level of highly productive assets continue to accumulate those assets.  Agents who fall somewhere in between, with an intermediate level...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1996
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12649

Comparison of Risk Between Cropping Systems in Eastern Norway
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lien,   Gudbrand D.; Flaten,   Ola; Schumann,   Keith D.; Richardson,   James W.; Korsaeth,   Audun; Eltun,   Ragnar.
The aim of this study was to compare production and policy risk of organic, integrated and conventional cropping systems in Norway. Experimental cropping system data (1991-1999) from eastern Norway were combined with budgeted data. Empirical distributions of total farm income for different cropping systems were estimated with a simulation model that uses a multivariate kernel density function to smooth the limited experimental data. Stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) was used to rank the cropping systems for farmers with various risk aversion levels. The results show that the organic system had the greatest net farm income variability, but the existing payment system and organic price premiums makes it the most economically viable...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Organic; Integrated and conventional crop farming; Stochastic simulation; Multivariate kernel estimator; Risk aversion; Stochastic efficiency with respect to a function; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; C44.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24663

A COMMODITY MARKET SIMULATION GAME FOR TEACHING MARKET RISK MANAGEMENT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Trapp,   James N.
The Market Risk Game is a computerized simulation game available for IBM PC and Apple II microcomputers that is designed to give realistic practice in making decisions in a risky market environment. It illustrates the use of hedging and put options to reduce risk in livestock and grain markets. It is best suited for individuals who have a basic understanding of commodity trading, but who need experience to solidify their knowledge to a functional level. Through the game this is done without facing the risk of an actual investment or requiring the time involved in watching a market over an extended period.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1989
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30178

Efficiency of Selected Risk Management Instruments - An Empirical Analysis of Risk Reduction in Kazakhstani Crop Production
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Heidelbach,   Olaf.
Recent academic discussion regarding crop insurance in developing and transition countries has focused on weather index insurance. But empirical analyses of such schemes based on farm level data cannot be found in the literature, though this insurance type shows clear advantages compared to multiple-peril crop insurance and revenue insurance. Recent empirical applications of risk and stochastic programming models focus on the optimisation of production planning, while literature on the effects of crop insurance on the farm level mainly focuses on the empirical investigation of reductions in farm income variance. The novelty of this paper is that it integrates regionally-adapted insurance products and expert-evaluated technology choices into a programming...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Risk management; Insurance; Agriculture; Kazakhstan; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q14; G22; D82.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25243

Short term effects of moderate carbon prices on land use in the New Zealand emissions trading system: LURNZ-climate land use change simulations
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kerr,   Suzi; Zhang,   Wei; Power,   William.
The New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) was introduced through the Climate Change Response Act in September 2008 and remains in force. The forestry sector has been directly affected by the NZ ETS since 1 January 2008 and stationary energy, liquid fuels and industrial emissions have been affected since 1 July 2010. When it is fully implemented in 2015 it will cover all sources and gases including agricultural emissions. Using the Land Use in Rural New Zealand model (LURNZ), we simulate rural land use changes that could be driven by the NZETS in order that we can explore their potential implications for emissions and removals (sequestration) and rural incomes and land values. This paper documents our simulation methods and presents short term (up...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Industrial Organization; International Relations/Trade; Land Economics/Use; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96941

Measuring the economic benefits and costs of Bluetongue virus outbreak and control strategies in Scotland
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fofana,   Abdulai; Toma,   Luiza; Moran,   Dominic; Gunn,   George J.; Stott,   Alistair W.
This paper provides an ex-ante economic analysis, comparing six alternative control strategies for the eradication of Bluetongue virus 8 against five incursion scenarios in cattle and sheep populations. The economic analysis assumes a common baseline unavoidable cost of public and private measures that together contribute to prevention of incursion of BTV8 into Scotland. These costs continue over the five year horizon of this analysis regardless of whether a BTV8 epidemic ensues in Scotland and their total present value was found to be approximately £141m over the 5year period. The benefit of this investment is the costs of a BTV8 outbreak avoided; which depends on the time, location and nature of the incursion, on the control strategies adopted to counter...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Bluetongue virus; Epidemiology; Direct and indirect costs; Benefit analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51052

Optimal Voluntary "Green" Payment Programs To Limit Nitrate Contamination Under Price and Yield Risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Peterson,   Jeffrey M.; Boisvert,   Richard N.
A model of a voluntary "green" payment program is developed to control nitrate leaching and runoff from corn production in New York. The program achieves environmental goals through self-interested choices of farmers, grouped by the productive and environmental characteristics of soils. It considers randomness in prict}~, production, and environmental damage. Farmers are assumed to maximize expected utility subject to chance constraints on severe levels of nitrate contamination. This program compensates farmers for applying environmentally safe levels of nitrogen fertilizer. If information is symmetric, program participation conditions require that the post-policy expected utility is at least as large as pre-policy expected utility. Under asymmetric...
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122687

Does Futures Price Volatility Differ Across Delivery Horizon?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Karali,   Berna; Dorfman,   Jeffrey H.; Thurman,   Walter N.
We study the difference in the volatility dynamics of CBOT corn, soybeans, and oats futures prices across different delivery horizons via the smoothed Bayesian estimator of Karali, Dorfman, and Thurman (2010). We show that the futures price volatilities in these markets are affected by the inventories, time to delivery, and the crop progress period. Some of these effects vary across delivery horizons. Further, it is shown that the price volatility is higher before the harvest starts in most of the cases compared to the volatility during the planting period. These results have implications for hedging, options pricing, and the setting of margin requirements.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Bayesian econometrics; Futures markets; Seasonality; Theory of storage; Volatility; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53036

Incentives for Ex Ante wildfire risk mitigation in the wildland-urban interface: The relationship between contingent wildfire insurance and fuel management subsidies
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lankoande,   Mariam D.; Yoder,   Jonathan K.; Wandschneider,   Philip R.
Contingent wildfire insurance and fuel management cost-sharing programs are becoming more prevalent in western states. This paper develops a model to examine the incentive effects of these two mechanisms for private investment in wildfire risk mitigation. The model shows that contingent insurance contracts strengthen incentives for risk mitigation relative to pooled contracts and subsidies induce more risk mitigation effort by reducing margin private costs of mitigation. With pooled insurance contracts, individuals in low-risk areas subsidize the premiums of individuals living in high-risk areas, inducing too much development in high-risk areas. Subsidies can improve incentives for risk mitigation, but they also may induce excessive development in...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21414

Price Insurance, Moral Hazard and Agri-environmental Policy
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fraser,   Rob W.
Motivated by recent EC proposals to “strengthen risk management tools” in the CAP in relation to farmers’ increased exposure to market price risk, this paper draws attention to a potential negative consequence of such a change in the CAP – an associated increase in cheating behaviour by farmers in the context of environmental stewardship. A theoretical framework for this policy problem is developed and used not just to illustrate the problem, but also to propose a solution – specifically to combine the introduction of CAP-supported policy changes which reduce farmers’ exposure to market-based risk with changes in environmental stewardship policies which increase the riskiness of cheating and thereby discourage such behaviour.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124305

Analyzing Crop Revenue Safety Net Program Alternatives and Impacts on Producers and Program Costs
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jansen,   Jim A.; Lubben,   Bradley D.; Stockton,   Matthew C.
This study evaluates the policy effects of alternative program designs for federal revenue-based farm income safety net programs.  Eight representative farms across Nebraska are used to stochastically simulate the financial impact of changing the current farm crop revenue-based safety net with a state revenue trigger against potential alternative programs involving guarantees at the district, county, or farm level.  Results indicate that decreasing the aggregation of the revenue guarantee increases expected farm-level payments and program costs for the revenue-based safety net.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Farm bill; Farm programs; Government payments; Representative farms; Risk management; Simulation; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119784

Cambio climático en Uruguay, posibles impactos y medidas de adaptación en el sector agropecuario.
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gimenez,   Agustin; Castano,   Jose Pedro; Baethgen,   Walter E.; Lanfranco,   Bruno A.
El presente trabajo presenta un resumen de información sobre cambio climático observado en Uruguay y la región y posibles escenarios futuros. Dicha información se basa fundamentalmente en estudios conducidos y finalizados recientemente (2005-2009) en el país, en el marco del programa “Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change” (AIACC-START, TWAS, GEF) ( AIACC, 2006), en el “Análisis de la Estadística Climática y Desarrollo y Evaluación de Escenarios Climáticos e Hidrológicos de las principales Cuencas Hidrográficas del Uruguay y la Zona Costera” (Unidad de Cambio Climático de la DINAMA del MVOTMA de Uruguay, PNUD, GEF, 2005), en el estudio de “Identificación de Posibles Impactos del Cambio Climático en la Producción de Pasturas Naturales y de...
Tipo: Book
Palavras-chave: Global warming; Agriculture and livestock production; Public policy; Extreme climate events.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q01; Q54; Q55; Q58.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121759

Risk in Public Policy Making: A Neglected Issue in Australia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hardaker,   J. Brian; Fleming,   Euan M.; Lien,   Gudbrand D.
We argue for greater recognition of the risky nature of most policy decisions. In this context we discuss the gulf between public risk perceptions and attitudes and those of 'experts'. Public views of risk are often inconsistent and seemingly irrational. They nevertheless influence policy choices in a democracy. On the other hand, experts often claim unjustifiable levels of confidence in their predictions of policy choice outcomes, creating a lack of public faith in their recommendations. While risky policy choices deserve more systematic decision analysis, there is a need for more effective interaction between policy makers, decision analysts and the public.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Policy-making; Risk; Uncertainty; Decision Analysis; Perceptions; Subjectivity; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Political Economy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/5997

Covariate Shocks and Rural Poverty in Burkina Faso
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sakurai,   Takeshi; Savadogo,   Kimseyinga.
The civil war in Côte d’Ivoire has caused an increase in household size due to returnees and a decrease in remittance received in rural Burkina Faso.  This paper, taking advantage of a rare dataset covering the covariate shocks caused by the Ivorian Crisis, examines empirically the impact of such shocks on households’ welfare in rural Burkina Faso.      It is found that the number of working-age returnees increases household cropped area: one working-age returnees increase 0.64 ha of cropped area and that the decrease of remittance from Côte d’Ivoire increases non-agricultural income: 1 FCFA reduction of remittance increases 0.78 FCFA of non-agricultural income.  In spite of those coping behaviors, this paper demonstrates that the households do not fully...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Covariate shocks; Poverty; Remittance; Food Security and Poverty; International Development; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51722

Emerging Issues in Risk Management in Farm Firms
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Beal,   Diana J.
Farming is a high risk business because of the inherent variability of the natural environment in which it is placed and the markets in which its products are sold. Farmers have learned to cope with variability and have adopted management strategies which decrease risk to the farm firm. This paper examines the literature on emerging issues in risk management in agriculture and how farmers might react in the future. Attention is focused on managing changes in risk exposure due to climatic variability and market variability, and on management measures that protect the structure of the farm business.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1996
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12371

Examination of Factors Influencing Crop Insurance Purchase Decisions of Illinois Farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Spaulding,   Aslihan D.; Roy,   Kayla D.; Winter,   J. Randy; Tudor,   Kerry W.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61697

Teaching Agricultural Producers to Consider Risk in Decision Making
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nelson,   A. Gene.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1997
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35835

INTERTEMPORAL DECISIONS OF FARMERS’ RISK MANAGEMENT: A DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION WITH GENERALIZED EXPECTED UTILITY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Du,   Wen; Wang,   H. Holly.
In this paper we attempt an intertemporal study of risk management decisions for wheat growers in the Pacific Northwest. We apply a generalized expected utility model (GEU) to examine the farmers’ optimal choices of hedging ratios and crop insurance coverage levels in the presence of government payment programs in a multi-period production environment. A stochastic trend model is used to identify the long-term time series patterns of annual wheat yields, cash prices, and futures prices from two counties in Washington. The fitted models are then used as the base for yield and price simulation over the next five years. The stochastic dynamic optimization problem is solved numerically based on simulated data. The optimal solutions indicate that the GEU model...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36205

Managing Economic Risk from Invasive Species: Bug Options
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fournier,   Valerie; Manfredo,   Mark R.; Richards,   Timothy J.; Eaves,   James.
Invasive insect species cause billions of dollars of direct and indirect damage to U.S. crops each year.  The market for insuring insect damage is, however, far from complete.  The objective of this study is to design and value insect derivatives, or "bug options," which would offer growers a market-based means for transferring risk of pest damage to speculators or others who may profit from higher insect populations.  A bug option valuation model is developed and applied to Bemesia tabaci infestation in cotton.  The results show that insect derivatives may become important risk management tools for a wide range of growers.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19553

Globally Flexible Modeling of County-Level Acreage Response for Primary U.S. Field Crops
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cooper,   Joseph C.; Arnade,   Carlos Anthony.
This study takes the standard acreage response model that stems from an expected utility framework, accounting for both price and yield variability, and nests it within a flexible semi-nonparametric (SNP) model consistent with farm-level decision models for computationally tractable results. We use county-level data to estimate the response of farmers’ planting preferences to changes in revenue and other variables.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Acreage response; Elasticities; Field crops; Semi-nonparametric; Risk; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103240

Pricing Weather Insurance with a Random Strike Price: An Application to the Ontario Ice Wine Harvest
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Turvey,   Calum G.; Weersink,   Alfons.
Interest is growing in weather insurance within the agricultural sector but its use has been limited by the difficulty in defining the appropriate weather event and the lack of agreement on how to price the product.  In this paper we develop a new insurance pricing method for weather insurance under situations where volume returns depend not only on the occurrence of the weather event, but also its timing.  The method is applied to the pricing of weather insurance for ice wine in the Niagara Peninsula of southern Ontario.  Because the harvest quantity of grapes for ice wine degrades over time, the strike value on the weather event measured as harvestable hours is random.  This random strike, we developed a systematic approach to valuing the insurance using...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19255

Weather-based instruments in the context of whole farm risk management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Berg,   Ernst; Schmitz,   Bernhard.
Recent and presumable future developments tend to increase the risks associated with farming activities. These include climate risks which have always played an important role in farming. Weather based instruments can be valuable tools to reduce the risk associate with unfavourable climatic events. However, a number of factors can limit the hedging effectiveness of these tools. These factors include basis risk, the impacts of remaining price uncertainty and diversification effects. The paper addresses the influence of each of these factors. In its final part an integrated approach for a comprehensive assessment of weather derivatives and other hedging instruments is proposed that is based on the concept of portfolio optimisation.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Downside risk; Portfolio optimisation; Risk management; Risk-value models; Weather derivatives; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9269

VALUING COUNTER-CYCLICAL PAYMENTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCER RISK MANAGEMENT AND PROGRAM ADMINISTRATION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Plato,   Gerald E.; Skully,   David W.; Johnsons,   D. Demcey.
USDA’s current method for estimating expected counter-cyclical payment rates produces unintentionally biased estimates because it does not consider the variability of marketing year prices. Estimates with positive bias increase the risk of overpayment to producers who accept advance payments. According to statute, producers must reimburse the Government for any overpayments, which can lead to cash-flow problems. A model developed for this analysis improved upon the USDA method of estimating counter-cyclical payment rates by accounting for the variability in market price forecast errors. This enhanced method produced unbiased estimates. Forecasters and producers can also use the model to calculate the probabilities of repayment. Producers can use call...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: 2002 Farm Act; Farm and commodity policy; Counter-cyclical payments; Risk management; Price uncertainty; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7184

Risk Sharing in Broiler Contracts: A Welfare Comparison of Payment Mechanisms
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hegde,   S. Aaron; Vukina,   Tomislav.
Previous research has found that a significant part of risk from poultry grow-out farm operations is due to market price of broilers. This risk is transferred to the integrator when the grower enters a production contract with the integrator. This follows from the absence of a market price variable in determining compensation in such contracts. In more recent contracts a market price clause is included in calculating compensation. We conduct welfare comparison of the old and new contracts and find that while including the market price clause increases the variability of grower income, it also raises grower expected return. Overall, under assumptions of fixed flock size and constant percentage mortality, which enables payment per-pound comparison, new...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22171

The U.S. Produce Traceability Initiative: Analysis, Evaluation, and Recommendations
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Porter,   Justin K.; Baker,   Gregory A.; Agrawal,   Narendra.
The IFAMR is the Official Journal of the International Food and Agribusiness Management Association: www.ifama.org
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Produce Traceability Initiative (PTI); Fresh produce industry; Food safety; Agribusiness; Consumer/Household Economics; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Production Economics; Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114643

Trust in Biotechnology Risk Managers: Insights from the United Kingdom, 1996-2002
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: James,   Harvey S., Jr.; Marks,   Leonie A.
During the late 1990s a series of negative events occurred in the United Kingdom (UK) related to biotechnology. These events signaled potential risks associated with biotech foods and crops and were highly reported. According to the trust asymmetry hypothesis, such events ought to cause public trust in risk managers of biotechnology to decline rapidly and rebound more slowly. We find, based on data taken from the Eurobarometer surveys conducted in 1996, 1999 and 2002, that public trust in risk managers did decline from 1996 to 1999. However, the level of trust rebounded sharply between 1999 and 2002. Canonical discriminant analysis of public trust is used to reveal possible explanatory factors in this response. We find that whether people trust or distrust...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92644

Natural Vs Financial Insurance in the Management of Weather Risk Exposure in the Italian Agriculture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Di Falco,   Salvatore; Capitanio,   Fabian; Adinolfi,   Felice.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114325

Looking for Security-Oriented Information Systems: Risk Perception and Management in Italian Companies
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Palmieri,   Roberto; Volpentesta,   Antonio P.
This paper presents the results of an empirical investigation concerning the approaches adopted by Italian companies in dealing with information security issues. Such results are compared to an ideal, integrated information system planning approach where information needs and risk management are jointly taken into account. Data analysis shows that respondents ascribe to information security a rather high relevance for their business, and there is a formal conformity of business practices to the phases included in the proposed model, especially as far as high level, conceptual activities are concerned. Despite that, in the companies which have been examined, security systems appear to be still inadequate, especially as far as organizational issues are...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Security-oriented information systems; Information security; Risk perception; Integrated planning model; Empirical results; Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7751

An Empirical Investigation of the Linkages between Government Payments and Farmland Leasing Arrangements
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Qiu,   Feng; Goodwin,   Barry K.; Gervais,   Jean-Philippe.
Replaced with revised version of paper 07/29/10.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Contract choice; Hybrid contract; Farm bill; Program payments; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Industrial Organization; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q15; Q18.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49242

Urban water management: optimal price and investment policy under uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hughes,   Neal; Hafi,   Ahmed; Goesch,   Tim; Brownlowe,   Nathan.
Australian urban water utilities face a significant challenge in designing appropriate demand management and supply augmentation policies in the presence of increasing water scarcity and uncertainty over future dam inflows. This paper considers the design of optimal demand management and supply augmentation policies for urban water. In particular, scarcity pricing is considered as a potential alternative to the predominant demand management policy of water restrictions. A stochastic dynamic programming model of an urban water market is developed based on data from the Australian Capital Territory. The model involves an explicit consideration of uncertainty via a probability distribution over dam inflows. Given a specification of the demand and supply for...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Public Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6005

The analysis of money demand for Uganda (1986:1-2003:4)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nabiddo,   Winnie.
The paper presents an empirical analysis of money demand in Uganda over the period 1986:1-2003:4. Two definition of money were used and tests for co-integration between the monetary aggregates and real money balance were carried out. The empirical results show that income is positively related to money demand while exchange rate, inflation and interest rates have a negative impact on money demand and there is a degree of substitution from non-interest to interest bearing financial assets and holding of foreign currency. the money demand functions remained stables for the entire period, as confirmed by the chow tests.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Money demand; Inflation rates; Interest rates; Exchange rates; Nabiddo; Economic policy research center; Foreign currency; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54936

Impacts of the SURE Standing Disaster Assistance Program on Producer Risk Management and Crop Insurance Programs
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anderson,   John D.; Barnett,   Barry J.; Coble,   Keith H.
This research investigates the potential effects of the row crop provisions of the standing disaster assistance program (SURE) in the 2008 Farm Bill.  Results suggest little impact on producer crop insurance purchase decisions, though the program does seem to provide an incentive for mid-level coverage.  Payments under the program should be expected to differ considerably across geographic regions and levels of diversification, with the program providing the greatest benefit to undiversified producers in more risky production regions.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Disaster assistance; Farm Bill; SURE; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49304

Weather Cycles, Production Yields and Georgia's Muscadine
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Raghunathan,   Uthra; Wong,   Jonathan; Escalante,   Cesar L.
This paper looks at the relationship between weather, crop yield, and market price of muscadines using a dynamic panel data that spans from the 2000 to 2005 and across the state of Georgia. We use a Generalized Methods of Moments  technique to estimate the impact of weather on the price of muscadines with the yield per acre as the instrumented variable. The results suggest that there is a relationship between the price and weather for muscadines, which provide important implications for the potential relevance of a weather derivative for muscadine production.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Muscadines; Weather cycles; Price; Production yields; Georgia; Generalized Method of Moments; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9926

The Impacts of Pasture Insurance on Farmland Values
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ifft,   Jennifer; Wu,   Shang; Kuethe,   Todd H.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124317

A RANGELAND GRASSHOPPER INSURANCE PROGRAM
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Skold,   Melvin D.; Davis,   Robert M.
The incidence of benefits and costs from controlling rangeland grasshoppers on public grazing lands poses problems of economic efficiency and distributional equity. Public grasshopper control programs operate like public disaster assistance. However, grasshopper infestations are an insurable risk. This article proposes a rangeland grasshopper insurance program which reduces the economic inefficiencies and distributional inequities of the existing program.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1995
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30765

TAX-DEFERRED RISK MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTS FOR FARMERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Monke,   James D.
Income tax incentives directly affect the economic feasibility of proposals for tax-deferred risk management accounts.  Data indicate that despite clear financial advantages from tax deferment and reduced income variability, income targeting may preclude many farmers from contributing enough money for accounts to be effective.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk management; Taxes; Farm income; Government programs; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1997
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21025

Impact of Russia and Ukraine on the international price formation and the EU markets - A Model based analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Banse,   Martin; Salamon,   Petra; Ledebur,   Oliver von; van Leeuwen,   Myrna; Bouma,   Foppe; Salputra,   Guna; Fellmann,   Thomas; Nekhay,   Olexandr.
This paper examines the effect of the future developments of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural sectors and their impact on the world market prices for arable crops. Employed in the study is AGMEMOD, a partial equilibrium economic model of EU agriculture at the Member State level that has been extended by Russia and Ukraine to gain quantitative insights. Vital for the project has also been the integration of an endogenous world market price module including a stylized Rest of the World (ROW) model. In Russia and Ukraine, there is a strong focus on plant production in general and on grain based animal production; Russia and Ukraine are mostly net-exports of those products. Under the baseline, in Russia prices for crops and oilseeds are below the world...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Partial equilibrium model; Price formation; Russia; Ukraine; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122536

Economic Feasibility of Ethanol Production from Sweet Sorghum Juice in Texas
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Morris,   Brittany D.; Richardson,   James W.; Frosch,   Brian J.; Outlaw,   Joe L.; Rooney,   William L.
The economic feasibility of producing ethanol from sweet sorghum juice is projected using Monte Carlo simulation models to estimate the price ethanol plants will likely have to pay for sweet sorghum and the uncertain returns for ethanol plants. Ethanol plants in high yielding regions will likely generate returns on assets of 11%-12% and in low yield areas the returns on assets will be less than 10%.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Sweet Sorghum; Ethanol; Monte Carlo Simulation; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; D20  G10  D81  C15.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46852

MEAN-GINI ANALYSIS, STOCHASTIC EFFICIENCY AND WEAK RISK AVERSION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Buccola,   Steven T.; Subaei,   Abdelbagi.
Stochastic dominance methods lately have been used to derive efficient strategies for given risk aversion intervals. A new decision approach, which makes use of the Gini coefficient, is shown to represent effectively the preferences of weakly risk averse individuals. The approach also has distinct advantages over stochastic dominance analysis. An application is provided of farmers' choices among alternative co-operative pooling rules.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1984
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22431

Coping against El Nino for Stabilizing Rainfed Agriculture: Lessons from Asia and the Pacific: Proceedings of a Joint Workshop Held in Cebu, the Philippines, September17-19, 2002
Provedor de dados: 31
Opening Message, by Leonard Q. Montemayor  Opening Address, by Sang Mu Lee  Opening Address, by Eiji Ueno  Opening Address, by Takahiro Inoue  Opening Address, by Nobuyoshi Maeno  Rationale, Objectives, and Benefits of the Joint Workshop, by Rogelio N. Concepcion and Shigeki Yokoyama  Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variability on Crop Production, and Developing Coping Strategies in Rainfed Agriculture, by Felino P. Lansigan  Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Decision Support Systems for Drought Prone Agriculture: A Case Study Based on the Development and Application of the Rainman Climate Analysis Software, by Jeff F. Clewett  Early Warning System against Cool Summer Damage: Case of Northern Japan, by Masaharu Yajima  ELNINO Project Regional Study Outline...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Climatic change; Weather hazards; Disasters; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32733

Are Tomato-Spotted Wilt Virus Management Tactics Good Enough?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Awondo,   Sebastain Nde; Fonsah,   Esendugue Greg; Riley,   David G.
Management of tomato-spotted wilt virus is complex and requires more than one treatment for near optimum results. We investigated tomato and pepper growers’ perception on the effectiveness of tactics using Bayesian Logistic regression. The perceived chance that each tactics will control the disease was about a coin toss.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Tomato-spotted wilt virus; Pest and disease management; Bayesian logistic regression; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Food Security and Poverty; Production Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119790

Catastrophic Drought Insurance based on the Remotely Sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index for Smallholder Farmers in Zimbabwe
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Makaudze,   Ephias M.; Miranda,   Mario J.
Index insurance, which indemnifies agricultural producers based on an objectively observable variable that is highly correlated with production losses but which cannot be influenced by the producer, can provide adequate protection against catastrophic droughts without suffering from the moral hazard and adverse selection problems that typically cause conventional agricultural insurance programs to fail. Using historical maize and cotton yield data from nine districts in Zimbabwe, we find that catastrophic drought insurance contracts based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can be constructed whose indemnities exhibit higher correlations with yield losses compared to the conventional rainfall index. In addition the NDVI contracts can be...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96183

Mutual Crop Insurance and Moral Hazard: The Case of Mexican Fondos
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Breustedt,   Gunnar; Larson,   Donald F.
Insuring against crop yield risk is an important task in rural microfinance because such an insurance may improve access to capital for smallholders by substituting for collaterals. However, agricultural crop yield risk is even hard to mitigate in developed countries due to problems of asymmetric information. In this paper we investigate theoretically and empirically whether special institutional rules in Mexican mutual crop insurance groups, called Fondos, can reduce problems of moral hazard. After presenting this case of a multiple peril crop insurance, we model a dynamic stochastic control problem extending it to a moral hazard game. We show from a theoretical point of view that institutions in the Fondos system have impact on the farmers’ behaviour to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25552

Testing environmental and health pesticide use risk indicators. The case of potato production in Boyacá, Colombia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Feola,   Giuseppe; Rahn,   Eric; Binder,   Claudia R.
Tropentag 2010 ETH Zurich, September 14 - 16, 2010 Conference on International Research on Food Security, Natural Resource Management and Rural Development
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Pesticide risk; Indicators; Sustainability; Health; Environment; Colombia; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Health Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117650

Viabilidade econômica da irrigação da cultura do café na região de Viçosa - MG
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Aredes,   Alan Figueiredo de; Santos,   Maurinho Luiz dos; Rufino,   Jose Luiz dos Santos; Reis,   Bricio dos Santos.
The objective of this paper is analyze the economic viability of implanting different technological alternatives of irrigation in the culture of coffee in the municipal district of Viçosa-MG. Technical and financial parameters of coffee cultivation were analyzed in five different technological alternatives: (A) - no-irrigated production with low productivity, (B) - no-irrigated production with high productivity, (C) - irrigated production by leaking, (D) - irrigated production by leaking fertilizing, (E) - irrigated production by mesh. For each one of there alternatives, Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, the Rate Interns of Return Modified and the Payback Period, being made the risk simulations were performed using the Latin Hypercube method. Results...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Coffee; Return; Risk; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54597

Cost and Benefit Analysis of Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus (TSWV) Management Technology in Georgia.
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fonsah,   Esendugue Greg; Ferrer,   Myra Clarisse R.; Riley,   David G.; Sparks,   Stormy; Langston,   David.
Recent trend depicts that tomatoes and tomatoes products rank 2nd most important vegetable crop in the United States after potatoes and potatoes products contributing 20 percent of total vegetable production.  More-so, tomato is equally ranked 2nd in the United States in terms of production value, generating $1.3 billion after head lettuce that contributed $1.4 billion in the same time period. In 2006, 422,000 acres of tomatoes were planted in the United States.  Tomato is equally an important economic crop in the state of Georgia.  In 2008, it ranked 14th in the Georgia vegetable acreage as 3,985 acres were planted.  It also ranked 6th in terms of farm gate value in the same time period generating $51.2 million.  Thrips-vectored tomato spotted wilt virus...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Tomatoes production; Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus (TSWV); Inputs; Fixed cost; Variable costs; Profitability; Cost and benefit.; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Health Economics and Policy; Marketing; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56386

Rising World Food Productivity Implications for U.S. Exports
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Avery,   Dennis T.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1985
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59820

Forward Hedging Under Price and Production Risk of Wheat
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Xing,   Liu; Pietola,   Kyosti.
This paper estimates optimal hedging ratios for a Finnish spring wheat producer under price and yield risk. The forward contract available for hedging fixes the price and quantity at the time of sowing for a delivery at harvest. Autoregressive models are used to obtain point forecasts for the conditional mean price and price volatility at harvest. Expected yield and yield volatility are estimated from the field experiment data. A range of coefficients of absolute risk aversion are used in the computations. The results suggest that yield volatility is large and it dominates the price volatility in the optimal hedging decisions of the Finnish wheat producers. Nevertheless, a potential for large negative correlation between the price and the yield decreases...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Hedging ratio; Risk; Forward contract; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q14.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24467

ECONOMIC RISK EFFICIENCY OF BOLL WEEVIL ERADICATION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Szmedra,   Philip I.; McClendon,   Ronald W.; Wetzstein,   Michael E.
The purpose of this study was to determine the economic risk efficiency of implementing a boll weevil (Anthonomus grandis [Boheman]) eradication (BWE) program in cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) producing regions of the Mississippi Delta.  Alternative producer pest management practices and program cost sharing were incorporated into a biophysical cotton simulation model.  Participation in a BWE program along with strict adherence to Cooperative Extension Service pest management guidelines proved to be the risk efficient practice.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1991
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30288

SOCIAL CAPITAL AND RISK RESPONSES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Robison,   Lindon J.; Hanson,   Steven D.
The economic well-being of economic agents is assumed to be interpersonally dependent.  The extent of this interpersonal dependency varies according to the strength of relationships, values, and social bonds and is measured using social capital coefficients in a neoclassical model in which agents with stable preferences maximize utility.  The model's predictions are tested empirically by asking agents how their willingness to bear a risk is altered when their refusal to accept the risk increases the risk faced by others.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1996
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11504

Drivers of Agricultural Physical Capital Development: Theoretical Framework and Hypotheses
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kataria,   Karin; Curtiss,   Jarmila; Balmann,   Alfons.
This paper aims to identify drivers of physical capital adjustments in agriculture. It begins with a review of some of the most important theories and modelling approaches regarding firms’ adjustments of physical capital, ranging from output-based models to more recent approaches that consider irreversibility and uncertainty. Thereafter, it is suggested that determinants of physical capital adjustments in agriculture can be divided into three main groups, namely drivers related to: i)expected (risk-adjusted) profit, ii) expected societal benefits and costs and iii) expected private nonpecuniary benefits and costs. The discussion that follows focuses on the determinants belonging to the first group and covers aspects related to product market conditions,...
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Drivers; Agriculural physical capital; Theoretical framework; Hypotheses; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122842

Empirically Evaluating the Flexibility of the Johnson Family of Distributions: A Crop Insurance Application
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lu,   Yue; Ramirez,   Octavio A.; Rejesus,   Roderick M.; Knight,   Thomas O.; Sherrick,   Bruce J.
This article examines the flexibility of the Johnson system of distributions by assessing its per-formance in terms of modeling crop yields for the purpose of setting actuarially fair crop in-surance premiums. Using data from corn farms in Illinois coupled with Monte Carlo simula-tion procedures, we found that average crop insurance premiums computed on the basis of the Johnson system provide reasonably accurate estimates even when the data are normal or come from a non-normal distribution other than the Johnson system (i.e., a beta). These results sug-gest that there is potential for using the Johnson system to rate previously uninsured crops that do not have historical insurance performance data upon which to base premium calculations.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Crop yield modeling; Johnson distribution; Premium rate setting; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44740

Weather risk and machinery costs – A Monte Carlo simulation for the wheat harvest
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lips,   Markus; Bolli,   Simon.
In eastern Switzerland there is a substantial weather risk during the wheat harvest. Increasing the number of available combine harvesters reduces harvest losses due to bad weather conditions, whilst increasing machinery costs. Simulating weather risk, we analyse harvest losses and machinery costs. In doing so, we apply both a deterministic and a stochastic approach – the latter by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. The costs per hectare of wheat are higher in the stochastic approach, because bad weather conditions lead to high costs. There is no difference between the two approaches in terms of minimum costs, which in both cases are achieved by a density of 20 harvesters per 1000 hectares. Calculation results are lower than the actual density, which is...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Weather risk; Wheat harvest; Monte Carlo simulation; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9249

Modeling Dependency Relationships With Copulas (PowerPoint Presentation)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Atwood,   Joseph A.; Buschena,   David E.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9377

Estimating the Costs of Revenue Assurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Xu,   Feng; Hart,   Chad E.; Smith,   Darnell B.; Meyers,   William H.
This study estimates the government cost of revenue assurance, one of the many proposals for the 1995 Farm Bill. Under the assumptions of nonnegativity and normality of revenue, a formula for computing the government cost of revenue assurance is derived. This formula is employed to estimate per acre revenue assurance costs at the 70, 75, and 80 percent levels of expected revenue coverage. These costs are compared with results from previous studies and with crop insurance premiums. The relative impacts of changes in yield mean, yield standard deviation, and price-yield correlation are also explored through metamodel analysis. The costs estimated for revenue assurance show that this program would result in substantial budget savings over the current program.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1995
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18560

Wildland Fire Hazard and Urban Development Pattern: Why California Civil Code 1103 Fails to Protect Households from Wildfires
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Xu,   Wenchao; Wu,   JunJie.
Recent years have seen mass casualties and severe property damage caused by wildland fires. With increasing housing development in natural-amenity-rich fire-prone areas, human activities not only exert intense pressures on local ecosystems, but also increase difficulties for wildland fire suppression. To cope with wildland fire threats and protect life and property from wildfire, a new California Natural Hazard Disclosure Law (California Civil Code Sec. 1103) went into effect in 1998. Information disclosure required by Sec. 1103 and its related laws is expected to enhance the efficiency of market allocation of land and developments in hazardous areas, making land price and development pattern better reflect the benefit and risk of living in the natural...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Wildfire; Land use; Urban development pattern; Income mix; Natural amenity; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49428

REGIONAL AND FARM-LEVEL RISK ANALYSES WITH THE SINGLE-INDEX MODEL
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Turvey,   Calum G.
This paper estimates single-index model (SIM) beta coefficients for the major cash crops of Ontario's agricultural-producing counties.  Beta coefficients are estimated using per acre gross revenues weighted by (1) the proportion of each crop planted in each county and (2) equal weights.  The results show that sometimes substantial differences arise from these procedures.  Implications for government policy and farm-level risk-management strategies are discussed.  A practical approach for using SIM for farm management purposes is presented and the effects of systematic and nonsystematic risk are discussed.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1991
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29018

Type I and Type II Errors in the Unit Root Determination of a Fractional Brownian Motion
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wongsasutthikul,   Paitoon; Turvey,   Calum G.; Power,   Gabriel J.
Economists who deal with time-series data usually take the unit root test as the ‘prerequisite’ test for a Brownian motion. It is typical for any researchers to apply a battery of well-known unit root tests to their models to confirm stationarity in the model specification. Nonetheless, often times, we see a conclusion that fail to reject the null in favor of the existence of unit root even though the model specification is such that the lag coefficients of an AR(q) process do not sum up to unity. In this study, we show that having the sum of the lag coefficients equals to unity is indeed a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a unit root. Hence, the aforementioned incident will lead to a type II error in the unit root determination. On...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Unit root; Hurst exponent; Fractional Brownian Motion; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60984

Index based compensation for weather risk in the Italian agriculture. A feasibility study based on actual historic data
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cafiero,   Carlo; Angelucci,   Federica; Capitanio,   Fabian; Vollaro,   Michele.
The paper explores the feasibility of the use of weather index based derivatives for farms' risk management in an Italian province. Based on a combination of detailed local weather data and of data on farms' yields, various possible weather indexes are found that are highly correlated with yields of the major crops in the area. Simulations show that hedging through such index based derivatives can be effective in protecting the stability of farms' incomes, at a cost that is likely to be much lower than that of the current system of subsidized crop insurance and ex-post compensation.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural risk management; Weather derivatives; Index based yield insurance.; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9261

Optimizing Production under Uncertainty: Generalisation of the State-Contingent Approach and Comparison of Methods for Empirical Application
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rasmussen,   Svend.
In a recent paper Rasmussen (Rasmussen 2003) derived criteria for optimal production under uncertainty based on the state-contingent approach developed by Chambers and Quiggin (2000). While the criteria in the 2003-paper were derived for the one variable input case, and for different types of input, the present paper generalises the results to the multi-variable input case. It is further shown that with the output-cubical technology as the basic model, any type of input may be analysed as a special case within the general model framework developed. The main part of the paper is devoted to the problems of empirical application of the State-contingent approach. To empirically apply the optimization criteria derived, one needs specific functional forms of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24184

MARKETING AND CROP INSURANCE COMBINED TO MANAGE RISK ON A CASS COUNTY REPRESENTATIVE FARM
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Clow,   Aaron D.; Flaskerud,   George K.
This study analyzed the effects that the use of crop insurance products and marketing alternatives had on the gross revenue per acre for an individual farm in Cass County. Crop insurance products and marketing strategies were analyzed individually to determine if they were effective in minimizing down side risk, and combined to determine if integration created synergies. A whole farm scenario analysis was run that included integrated strategies that implemented the same insurance coverage and marketing alternatives for each crop.  Several general conclusions can be drawn for situations similar to the representative farm. When analyzed at the individual crop level, the use of crop insurance at the 65 percent level minimizes down side risk in wheat and corn,...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk; Management; Strategy; Yield; Price; Insurance; Market; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23517

Agricultural land tax and farm-level resource use and output supply response
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Olubode-Awosola,   Femi.
This study develops and uses a programming model for farm-level resource use and output supply response to estimate the effects of agricultural land tax in South Africa: A case study of Free State, a region of extremely large commercial farms that gained their size and economic heft during the apartheid years of aggressive subsidies, favorable tax treatment, lucrative state grants and gifts, and all manner of financial assistance. The results indicate that changes in land use and output supply are marginal. The highest effects are observed on irrigated farming. Relevant policy responses raised by the findings are discussed.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural land tax; Farm-level; Resource use; Output supply; Land reform; South Africa; Case study; Programming model; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Security and Poverty; Land Economics/Use; Political Economy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51664

Confirmatory Bias under Food-Borne Risk: A Lab Experiment
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cao,   Ying; Just,   David R.; Wansink,   Brian.
An experiment was conducted to investigate the interaction between consumers’ past eating behaviors, risk perceptions and future information processing procedure. In the study, participants were required to choose whether or not to eat chicken that was potentially be tainted with Avian Influenza (AI). Results showed that people decreased the consumption when facing ambiguous signals regarding the food quality, but would not cease to eat altogether. Due to a taste of consistency, participants updated their risk perceptions and judgments based on their eating behaviors. The more chicken individuals ate the more favorably they tended to rate the food, suggesting confirmatory bias. Even though consumers with previous experience could pick up signals faster,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Cognitive Dissonance; Confirmation Bias; Self-compliance; Justification; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty; D03; D12; D83; Q18.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61312

Production Risk and the Estimation of Ex Ante Cost Functions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Moschini,   GianCarlo.
Cost function estimation under production uncertainty is problematic because the relevant cost is conditional on unobservable expected output. If input demand functions are also stochastic, then a nonlinear errors-in-variables model is obtained and standard estimation procedures typically fail to attain consistency. But by exploiting the full implications of the expected profit maximization hypothesis that gives rise to ex ante cost functions, it is shown that the errors-in-variables problem can be effectively removed, and consistent estimation of the parameters of interest can be achieved. A Monte Carlo experiment illustrates the advantages of the proposed procedure as well as the pitfalls of other existing estimators.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Cost function; Duality; Expected profit maximization; Nonlinear errors-invariables; Stochastic production; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18443

Economic Analysis of the Standard Reinsurance Agreement
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vedenov,   Dmitry V.; Miranda,   Mario J.; Dismukes,   Robert; Glauber,   Joseph W.
The paper presents an economic analysis of the Standard Reinsurance Agreement (SRA), the contract that governs the relationship between the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation and the private insurance companies that deliver crop insurance products to farmers. The paper outlines provisions of the SRA and describes the modeling methodology behind the SRA simulator, a computer program developed to assist crop insurers and policymakers in assessing the economic impact of the Agreement. The simulator is then used to analyze how the SRA affects returns from underwriting crop insurance at various levels of aggregation.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20345

RISK PERCEPTION AND THE ANALYSIS OF RISK ATTITUDES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Quiggin,   John C.
Risk has long been recognised as an important feature of the environment facing farmers. In recent years the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory has been used to analyse decision making under risk. However, many people behave in a manner inconsistent with the expected utility theory. One widely suggested explanation is based on subjective probability distortion. A number of attempts to incorporate this phenomenon into utility theories have been made. In this paper, the problems of analysing subjective probability distortion are discussed. Evidence from a survey of farmers' risk attitudes undertaken in conjunction with the 1977 BAE Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey is analysed in the light of this discussion.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1981
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22866

IDENTIFYING THE SET OF SSD-EFFICIENT MIXTURES OF RISKY ALTERNATIVES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: McCamley,   Francis P.; Kliebenstein,   James B.
Target MOTAD and other direct utility-maximization models provide one way of computing SSD-efficient mixtures. These models are appropriate when the utility function is known and can also be used to identify part of the set of SSD-efficient mixtures even when the utility function is not known. However, they do not always identify all SSD-efficient mixtures. A grid method was proposed by Bawa, Lindenberg, and Rafsky. A third approach, which extends the work of Dybvig and Ross, is presented here. It is illustrated by applying it to data from Anderson, Dillon, and Hardaker.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1987
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32468

Farm Income Stabilization and Risk Management: Some Lessons from AgriStability Program in Canada
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kimura,   Shingo; Anton,   Jesus.
This paper analyzes the effectiveness and efficiency of farm income stabilization program such as AgiStability in Canada. This program intends to mitigate farm income fluctuations, which is seemingly more neutral to the farming decision than the payments that are countercyclical with price or revenue, or that are commodity specific. However reduction of income variability generate responses in farmers’ risk management strategies, and most often generate crowding out effects of other strategies such as insurance or diversification. Stochastic analysis of risks and payments is combined with a micro economic model of endogenous risk management decision under uncertainty to explore the interactions between them. The part of the program that is triggered with...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114755

SUPPLY RESPONSE WITH STOCHASTIC TECHNOLOGY AND PRICES IN AUSTRALIA'S RURAL EXPORT INDUSTRIES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Easter,   Christopher D.; Paris,   Quirino.
Risky output prices and production characterise Australian agriculture. Exports are vitally important, sometimes relying heavily on a particular market. In this study a model is developed to include explicitly both output price and technological risks as well as multiple output relationships. It is used to show that changes in US beef import policy generating a 10 per cent beef price fall could reduce Australian beef supply by 3.5 per cent and grazing industry net revenue by 8.4 per cent, despite some switching from beef production to other enterprises.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1983
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22824

PARTICIPATION IN MULTIPLE-PERIL CROP INSURANCE: RISK ASSESSMENTS AND RISK PREFERENCES OF CRANBERRY GROWERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dismukes,   Robert; Allen,   P. Geoffrey; Morzuch,   Bernard J.
To investigate the poor participation rate of cranberry growers in the multiple-peril crop insurance program, a sample of 15 Massachusetts growers was interviewed. According to their risk preferences, a much greater proportion of growers should have insured, than actually did. A possible solution is to match the distribution used by the insurer closer to that believed by the grower. Adjusting each grower's historical yield series for trend brought the historical and subjective mean yields much closer. However, an aggregate test found the effect of adjustment to be insignificant, implying that the avenue for increased participation lies elsewhere.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1989
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28868

Estimating the demand for risk reduction from foodborne pathogens through food irradiation
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hartl,   Jochen; Fox,   John A.
In this study the response of US consumers to irradiation in meat processing is examined. Despite scientific evidence of the effectiveness and safety of irradiation, meat processors and retailers have been slow to market irradiated beef products due to uncertainty about consumer acceptance. The objective of this study was therefore to examine the factors influencing consumer demand for irradiation using data from a contingent valuation (CV) survey with 819 households in eight midwestern US states. The analysis focused on the value of reduced risk from Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Salmonella in ground beef consumption. Respondents were on average willing to pay a price premium of 22 cents/lb. for safer ground beef. Willingness to Pay (WTP) amounts were...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Food safety; Irradiation; Willingness to Pay (WTP); Contingent Valuation (CV); Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97498

The Effect of Food Scares on Risk Aversion: Implied Estimates from BSE Shocks on Cattle Futures Options (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Power,   Gabriel J.; Thomsen,   Michael R.; McKenzie,   Andrew M.; Vedenov,   Dmitry V.
PowerPoint Presentation
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty; D81.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48905

A Cost Function Analysis of Crop Insurance Moral Hazard and Agricultural Chemical Use
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Liang,   Yan; Coble,   Keith H.
This paper employs a cost function analysis method to investigate the existence of moral hazard in cotton buy-up insurance. The trans-log cost function estimates of the own-price elasticity of fertilizer, herbicide, and insecticide is -0.222, -0.143, and -0.121, respectively for Mississippi cotton production. Our results found statistically significant relationship between per acre direct cost and cotton buy-up insurance for year 2001 and 2005 in Mississippi. Our results also indicate that moral hazard can either decrease or increase agricultural input usage depending specific production condition in an individual year.  But in general the results support effects smaller than anecdotal evidence would suggest.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Moral hazard; Agricultural input use; Cost function analysis; Cotton; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49485

Right-to-Choose Auctions: A Field Study of Water Markets in the Limari Valley of Chile
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Alevy,   Jonathan E.; Cristi,   Oscar; Melo,   Oscar.
Field experiments were conducted with farmers in the Limarí Valley of Chile to test extant theory on right-to-choose auctions. Water volumes that differed by reservoir source and time of availability were offered for sale by the research team. The auctions were supplemented by protocols to elicit risk and time preferences of bidders. We find that the right-to-choose auctions raise significantly more revenue than the benchmark sequential auction. Risk attitudes explain a substantial amount of the difference in bidding between auction institutions, consonant with received theory. The auction bidding revealed distinct preferences for water types, which has implications for market re-design.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Water market; Field experiment; Auction design; Farm Management; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90821

On the interaction between risk-taking and risk-sharing under farm household wealth heterogeneity
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Delpierre,   Matthieu; Verheyden,   Bertrand; Weynants,   Stephanie.
Empirical evidence on developing countries shows on the one hand that rich farm-households are more keen to adopt new technologies and are higher risk takers than poor households. On the other hand, however, they are shown to be less vulnerable to income shocks than poor farmers. This paper provides a rationale for these observations. Risk averse agents, heterogeneously endowed with wealth, non-cooperatively decide on their level of subscription to risk-sharing and on the degree of individual production risk they take. Rich households take more risks and subscribe more to risk-sharing. Although risk-sharing allows all households to cope with idiosyncratic shocks, the risk-taking behavior of rich households increases the covariate component of poor...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk-taking; Risk-sharing; Technology adoption; Farm household; International Development; Risk and Uncertainty; O12; O13; O17; O33.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122556

Weather Derivatives, Spatial Aggregation, and Systemic Risk: Implications for Reinsurance Hedging
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Woodard,   Joshua D.; Garcia,   Philip.
Previous studies identify limited potential efficacy of weather derivatives in hedging agricultural exposures. In contrast to earlier studies which investigate the problem at low levels of aggregation, we find that better weather hedging opportunities may exist at higher levels of spatial aggregation. Aggregating production exposures reduces idiosyncratic risk, leaving a greater proportion of the total risk in the form of systemic weather risk which can be effectively hedged using relatively simple weather derivatives. The aggregation effect suggests that the potential for weather derivatives in agriculture may be greater than previously thought, particularly for aggregators of risk such as reinsurers.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Hedging; Reinsurance; Spatial aggregation; Systemic risk; Weather derivatives; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36705

CRITICAL ECONOMIC FACTORS FOR SUCCESS OF A BIOMASS CONVERSION PLANT FOR AGRICULTURAL RESIDUE, YARD RESIDUE AND WOOD WASTE IN FLORIDA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Granja,   Ivan R.; VanSickle,   John J.; Ingram,   Lonnie; Weldon,   Richard N.
This model evaluates the potential success of a cellulosic ethanol plant in Florida. Critical Economic factors of the plant were simulated to assess the ability of this project. These critical factors include the feedstock to be used, the cost of the facility, transportation costs and the discount rate for the net present value (NPV). Results and observations are presented in this paper.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Renewable energy; Cellulosic ethanol; Biomass; Agribusiness; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Crop Production/Industries; Financial Economics; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56442

RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS IN THE AUSTRALIAN WOOL INDUSTRY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fisher,   Brian S.
The process by which producers form expectations has implications for model building and policy analysis. An econometric model of the Australian wool market is estimated. It is shown that the rational expectations hypothesis is not inconsistent with the data for both the period before the floor price scheme was implemented and since that date. This finding has important implications, since it has been shown that the welfare gains from stabilisation are small if producers form rational expectations.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1983
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22742

WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT DECISION MAKING UNDER RISK AND WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Buschena,   David E.; Zilberman,   David.
This article reviews two major approached used in the past for risk analysis—the expected utility approach and the use of safety rules—and endeavors to reconcile their applicability and use in light of the recent nonexpected utility risk literature and working using the mean-Gini coefficient for risk analysis. This leads to the identification of several “"reduced form”" hypotheses that hold under a variety of theoretical structures and to a discussion of some empirical evidence regarding these hypotheses. The major lesson of recent research of individual behavior under risk is that it is not always consistent with the expected utility approach; in short, there is no generic model for evaluating behavior under risk.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1994
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30756

Creating safety nets through semi-parametric index-based insurance: A simulation for Northern Ghana
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Molini,   Vasco; Keyzer,   Michiel A.; van den Boom,   Bart; Zant,   Wouter.
In West Africa, farm income is highly exposed to risks from crop failure in the drier, inland areas, and from fluctuations in (world market) prices in the wetter coastal areas. As individuals and even extended families are poorly equipped to deal with these, provision of social safety nets is required  Our paper reviews the situation in Ghana and the way in which the new financial instrument of index-based insurance might contribute to better it, focusing on the estimation of a crop indemnification scheme for farmers in Northern Ghana. It recalls that in a poor rural area like Northern Ghana, provision of social safety almost coincides with food security management, and must, therefore, distinguish three basic subtasks: distributing income entitlements...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9263

Evaluating the Dynamic Nature of Market Risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hubbs,   Todd; Kuethe,   Todd H.; Baker,   Timothy G.
This study examines the systematic risk present in major crops for the United States and three corn-belt states. An index of commodities is used in conjunction with cash receipts to generate dynamic estimates of the systematic risk for each crop and state. In our study, we find that beta estimates from a time varying parameter model (FLS) and OLS formulation are substantially different. From our graphs of betas over time, one gains insight into the changing nature of risk and the impact of institutional and macroeconomic events. Systematic risk is shown to increase for most crops over the analyzed period with significant changes in volatility after the collapse of the Bretton Woods Accord.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Systematic risk; Flexible least squares; Single index model; Farm policy; Macroeconomics; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53037

Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Farm Production and Profitability: Dynamic Simulation Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cai,   Ruohong; Bergstrom,   John C.; Mullen,   Jeffrey D.; Wetzstein,   Michael E.
In this paper, a dynamic optimization model was developed to simulate how farm-level realized price and profitability respond to yield change which was induced by climate change. Producers' acreage response was included in the dynamic model considering crop rotation effect. In the crop rotation model, a modified Bellman equation was used to dynamically optimize the net present value of farm profit for a five-year interval. This simulation process was repeated through the year 2050. Then yield, price, and acreage response were compiled to generate realized profit. Results generally indicated that reduction in crop yields due to climate change results in reduced farm profitability for most of the states studied. Predicted climate change is more likely to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Dynamic simulation model; Acreage response; Crop rotation; Expected price; Realized price; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103420

Economic and environmental effects of an EU flat rate for the Dutch agricultural sector
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Helming,   John F.M.; Peerlings,   Jack H.M.
The objective of this research is to give insights into the production, income and environmental effects of the introduction of an EU flat rate for Dutch agriculture. For this purpose, a detailed agri-environmental programming model for Dutch agriculture is used.  Results of the EU flat rate scenario are compared to a reference scenario that describes agricultural production in the Netherlands in 2020. Results show that total gross margin in Dutch agriculture decreases because of the EU flat rate with 7%. The supply of starch potatoes and cow milk decreases most. Production of seed and consumption potatoes, vegetables and intensive livestock products increases slightly. This is largely due to a shift of farm payments from milk and starch potatoes...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: EU flat rate; Mathematical programming; Income volatility; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q1; D8.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122481

What Do You Think? Participant Survey Results: 2003 K-State Risk &amp; Profit Conference
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Brant,   Molly; Clark,   Paul; Pendell,   Dustin L.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117971

EU wide regional impacts of climate change
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shrestha,   Shailesh; Himics,   Mihaly; Van Doorslaer,   Benjamin; Ciaian,   Pavel.
The current paper investigates the medium term impact of climate changes on EU agriculture. We employ CAPRI partial equilibrium modelling framework. The results indicate that within the EU, there will be both winners and losers, with some regions benefitting from climate change, while other regions suffering losses in production and welfare. In general, there are relatively small market effects at the EU aggregate. For example, the value of total agricultural income, land use and welfare change by approximately between -0.3% and 2%. However, there is a stronger impact at regional level with the effects increase by a factor higher than 10 relative to the aggregate EU impacts.  The price adjustments reduce the response of agricultural sector to climate...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Climate change; Regional impacts; CAPRI; Market effects; Risk and Uncertainty; Q54.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122546

Some Estimates of Farmers' Utility Functions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hildreth,   Clifford; Knowles,   Glenn J.
Utility functions for 13 Minnesota farmers are estimated from their responses to hypothetical decision problems under uncertainty.  The results furnish strong evidence of risk aversion and of decreasing absolute risk aversion as wealth increases.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Utility; Bayesian; Farmers; Uncertainty; Risk aversion; Decision theory; Cattle; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1982
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54545

VALUE AT RISK: AGRICULTURAL PROCESSOR PROCUREMENT AND HEDGING STRATEGIES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hawes,   Cullen R.; Wilson,   William W.; Dahl,   Bruce L.
Agricultural firms that use Value at Risk (VaR) tend to be the large diversified corporations.  The benefits of VaR in the agricultural industry are not limited to large conglomerates; however, and this study provides empirical examples of how mid to large sized commodity end-users can use VaR to quantify price risk exposure.  By reporting price risk in terms of dollars as a single summary statistic, VaR provides a more intuitive measure of risk for decision makers, especially when the distribution of portfolio value changes is non-normal.  VaR also separates downside from upside potential by focusing on the left-hand tail of a portfolio's distribution of returns.  The purpose of this study is to demonstrate how VaR can be applied to the portfolio of a...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Value at Risk; Hedging; Processor Futures; Options; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23608

Modelling of the Demand Relations within the Commodity Chain: Application on the Wheat Commodity Chain in the Czech Republic
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Blazkova,   Ivana.
The paper is focused on formulation of demand relations in the commodity chain. Created model respects interdependence and interconnection of particular stages within the food commodity chain – it takes into account the fact that secondary demand function is formed not only by particular prices but also by level of demand on vertical previous market. The functions of primary consumer demand for final products and the functions of derived demands at the level of retail, processing and agricultural production are modeled. The wheat commodity chain in the Czech Republic is chosen for the application. Statistical verification of the model and derivation of standard characteristics of market subjects’ behaviour (elasticities) are made. The model shows that...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Commodity chain; Vertical demand system; Demand interconnection; Primary demand; Secondary demand; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59195

Impacts of Weather and Time Horizon Selection on Crop Insurance Ratemaking: A Conditional Distribution Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Woodard,   Joshua D.
An important issue in the agricultural actuarial literature is the extent to which sample period selection affects the accuracy of insurance rating. A conditional Weibull distribution approach is developed which explicitly models the interaction of weather, technology, and other variables on probabilistic yield outcomes to address this issue. Results from an application with an extensive producer-level yield dataset representing commercial-scale Illinois firms suggest that the impact of weather heterogeneity on risk estimation across reasonable samples is likely not as great as is often claimed. The results also suggest that yield risk is decreasing significantly through time, and indicate the presence of trend acceleration. A rating analysis indicates...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Conditional Weibull Distribution; Conditional Production Function; Catastrophic Risk Modeling; Sample Selection; Yield Risk; Crop Insurance; Ratemaking; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103929

RISIKOMANAGEMENTINSTRUMENTE IM VERGLEICH:  SOLLTE MAN LANDWIRTSCHAFTLICHE  ERNTEVERSICHERUNGEN SUBVENTIONIEREN? – GUTE  ALTE ARGUMENTE IN EINEM NEUEN STREIT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hirschauer,   Norbert; Musshoff,   Oliver.
Sowohl Ernteversicherungen als auch „Wetterderivate“ sind neuartige Risikomanagementinstrumente, die eine Absicherung gegen Schäden aus nichtkatastrophalen Wetterereignissen ermöglichen, in Deutschland aber bisher nicht verbreitet sind. Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird mit Hilfe eines gesamtbetrieblichen Risikoprogrammierungsansatzes untersucht, welchen Nutzen neuartige Hedginginstrumente für Landwirte haben. Das Besondere des verwendeten Ansatzes besteht darin, dass sowohl das betriebsspezifische Risikoreduzierungspotenzial des jeweiligen Instruments als auch die individuelle Risikoakzeptanz des Landwirts berücksichtigt wird. Seine exemplarische Anwendung auf einen nordostdeutschen Marktfruchtbetrieb zeigt, dass standardisierte Wetterderivate einen...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risikomanagement; Ernteversicherungen; Wetterderivate; Zahlungsbereitschaftsanalyse; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52657

Discounting the Distant Future: How Much Do Uncertain Rates Increase Valuations?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Newell,   Richard G.; Pizer,   William A.
Costs and benefits in the distant future-such as those associated with global warming, long-lived infrastructure, hazardous and radioactive waste, and biodiversity-often have little value today when measured with conventional discount rates. We demonstrate that when the future path of this conventional rate is uncertain and persistent (i.e., highly correlated over time), the distant future should be discounted at lower rates than suggested by the current rate. We then use two centuries of data on U.S. interest rates to quantify this effect. Using both random walk and mean-reverting models, we compute the certainty-equivalent rate that is, the single discount rate that summarizes the effect of uncertainty and measures the appropriate forward rate of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Discounting; Uncertainty; Interest rate forecasting; Climate policy; Intergenerational equity; Risk and Uncertainty; D90; E47; C53; H43; Q28.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10743

Evaluation of an index-based risk management contract for agricultural activities
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Weynants,   Stephanie; Gaspart,   Frederic; Frahan,   Bruno Henry de.
This paper proposes and evaluates area index-based financial contracts for specific farm activities. These financial contracts allow not only for removing moral hazard and adverse selection as index insurances do, but also for adding more flexibility and, hence, better risk protection. The evaluation of these financial contracts uses FADN farm data of Belgium from 1990 to 2007. Area indexes based on yield and yield-in-value perform well in stabilising revenues from some farm activities, but badly  from some others. The variation in the estimated actuarially fair premiums across agricultural area shows the importance of designing those financial contracts according to homogenous agricultural area.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural risk management; Index insurance; Financial contract; Belgium; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122483

THEPOUTICALECONOMY OF A CROP INSURANCE EXPERIMENT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Skees,   Jerry R.
A new crop insurance alternative will be available for eight major crops in 1994. This paper provides background on the development and potential for the new Group Risk Plan (GRP). The policy issues surrounding the Federal Crop Insurance Program are reviewed with an emphasis on the microlevel problems. Recognition of the micro-level problems of adverse selection and moral hazard led to the development of a pilot test of GRP in 1993. Limited Federal funding and the political demands for improving the actuarial performance of the Federal Crop Insurance Program led to the rapid expansion of GRP for crop year 1994. ideas for using GRP to improve the mixture of government and private initiatives to assist U.S. farmers in managing risk are introduced.
Tipo: Technical Report
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1993
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123021

Managing Dairy Profit Risk Using Weather Derivatives
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chen,   Gang; Roberts,   Matthew C.; Thraen,   Cameron S.
Weather conditions are a primary source of dairy production risk. Hot and humid weather induces heat stress, which reduces lactation. Heat abatement, such as ventilation, directly affects the temperature and humidity. Abatement can increase expected profit, but cannot eliminate the lost revenue caused by heat stress. Weather derivatives can reduce weather-induced profit risk and act as a substitute for abatement at the margin. We test the risk management value of weather derivatives in a utility-maximization framework. The result is that weather derivatives can expand the efficient portfolio frontier. Simultaneously using the weather derivatives and abatement equipment is more favorable than using either alone.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Abatement technology; Mean-variance efficiency; Profit risk; Weather derivatives; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8624

DEVELOPING AND PRICING PRECIPITATION INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Martin,   Steven W.; Barnett,   Barry J.; Coble,   Keith H.
Production agriculture and agribusiness are exposed to many weather-related risks.  Recent years have seen the emergence of an increased interest in weather-based derivatives as mechanisms for sharing risks due to weather phenomena.  In this study, a unique precipitation derivative is proposed that allows the purchaser to specify the parameters of the idemnity function.  Pricing methods are presented in the context of a cotton harvest example from Mississippi.  Our findings show a potential for weather  derivatives to serve niche markets within U.S. agriculture.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31155

SPATIAL YIELD RISK ISSUES: COMPARING YIELD RISK ACROSS REGION, CROP AND AGGREGATION METHOD
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Popp,   Michael P.; Rudstrom,   Margaretha; Manning,   Patrick M.
Crop yield risk analysis is difficult since historic field level yields are often not available.  Spatially aggregated yield data are available, however, but aggregation distortion for farm level analysis may exist.  This paper addresses how much aggregation distortion to expect and offers some adjustment solutions across crops and production regions.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19979

PAVING THE WAY FOR NEW LIVESTOCK RISK MANAGEMENT TOOLS: DEVELOPING MARKETS AND REGULATIONS (PowerPoint Presentation)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Griffin,   Peter.
POWERPOINT PRESENTATION
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33168

Food Chain Networks as a Leverage for Innovation Capacity
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kuhne,   Bianka; Gellynck,   Xavier.
Chain networks of manufacturers of traditional food products comprehend a large majority of micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs – firms employing less than 250 people). In a more and more globalised market with increasing competition, innovation is an important strategic tool for SMEs to achieve competitive advantage (Avermaete et al., 2004a, Gellynck et al., 2007, Murphy, 2002). Innovation can be defined as an ongoing process of learning, searching and exploring, resulting in new products, new techniques, new forms of organisation and new markets (Lundvall, 1995) which are new to the firm and to the industry ranging from incremental to radical innovations. Within our study traditional food products are defined according to four criteria:...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59200

Virtual Consumption but Real Market. Does your avatar eat or drink on Second Life?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Giraud,   Georges.
Second Life® (SL) is an innovative digital world created in June 2003 by Linden Lab, a Californian company, acting only on the Internet. The purpose of SL is to provide entertainment via virtual experiences to customers who act, travel, buy and discuss into this world through their own avatar. SL is a 3D interactive combination of improved chat and video game, without any strict rules nor clear objective for the game apart to spent time in virtual reality and to enjoy this experience. SL is the most important Massive Multiplayer Online Role Playing Game (MMORPG).
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Digital world; Virtual consumption; Global branding; Food- related consumer behaviour; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59114

Optimierung unter Unsicherheit mit Hilfe stochastischer Simulation und Genetischer Algorithmen – dargestellt anhand der Optimierung des Produktionsprogramms eines Brandenburger Marktfruchtbetriebes
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Musshoff,   Oliver; Hirschauer,   Norbert.
Optimization has been recognized as a powerful tool in teaching and research for a long time. In spite of its well known problem solving capacity, some methodological obstacles have persisted over the years. The main problem is that stochastic variables and their correlations cannot be adequately accounted for within traditional optimization procedures. In this paper, we develop a methodological mix of stochastic simulation and a heuristic optimization procedure which has become known as genetic algorithms. The simulation part of the mix allows for the consideration of complex information such as stochastic processes; the genetic algorithms-part ensures that the method remains manageable in terms of required time and resources. We demonstrate the decision...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Optimization; Optimal production program; Stochastic simulation; Genetic algorithms; Uncertainty; Stochastic processes; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97454

Modelos económicos que explican la restricción crediticia en medianos productores agrícolas en Chile
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Reyes,   Alvaro.
Published by Asociación de Economistas Agrarios de Chile
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Credit constraint; Middle-scale farmers.; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97368

An assessment of farmer’s risk exposures and policy impacts on farmer’s risk management strategy
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anton,   Jesus; Kimura,   Shingo.
This paper describes farmer’s exposures to risks at the individual farm level and develops a model representing the decisions of an individual risk averse farmer facing variability in both prices and yields. A set of stylised risk market instruments is represented. The model is calibrated using farm level data from Germany. Monte-Carlo simulations of the random variables are run, and the corresponding optimal responses are obtained. The main focus of this paper is the interactions between government payments and the farmers’ use of risk market instruments in terms of the potential crowding out of such instruments and impacts on farm return and welfare. Unlike other studies this paper models farming response to payments in terms of production and the use of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Welfare; Crop yield insurance; Forward contracting and Single Farm Payment; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57663

Dynamics of Price Changes: Implications for Agricultural Futures Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tomek,   William G.
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1993
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121339

Testing for Moral Hazard and Ranking Farms by Their Inclination to Collect Crop Damage Compensations
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Myyra,   Sami; Pietola,   Kyosti.
This paper tests for the extent of moral hazard problem within a Crop Damage Compensation (CDC) program that is similar to traditional multi peril crop insurances but is publicly funded and openly accessible for all farmers in Finland. We further estimate the potential of using the observed farmer and farm characteristics in ranking and classifying farms according to their incidence towards losses when they are protected. The data are the claimed and granted indemnity payments for each farm over the fifteen year period of 1995-2009. These data are complemented by data on total farm population in 2005. The data suggest that most of the farmers (60%) have not made any claims in the CDC program over the 15 year period. Those farms that claimed compensation...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114632

Die Quantifizierung von Marktrisiken in der Tierproduktion mittels Value-at-Risk und Extreme-Value-Theory
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Odening,   Martin; Hinrichs,   Jan.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18826

EXPANDING THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM TO COVER COASTAL EROSION DAMAGE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Keeler,   Andrew G.; Kriesel,   Warren; Landry,   Craig E.
The National Flood Insurance Program does not currently cover damage strictly attributable to coastal erosion.  This paper uses the results of a nationwide survey of coastal property owners to estimate the demand for such insurance.  We find that there is significant demand at prices in the range of current flood insurance premiums.   Demand is influenced in the hypothesized way by increased measures of erosion risk as well as by insurance price and income.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21818

Agricultural Household Hedging With Off-Farm Income
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Blank,   Steven C.; Erickson,   Kenneth W.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92863

BUYING AND SELLING FIRE PROTECTION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Harvey,   Lynn R.
Detailed examination of how and why townships and municipalities buy and sell fire services.  Includes outline of various pricing methods.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1995
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11623

THE SCIENTIST'S PERSPECTIVE ON RISK
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wilkinson,   Chris F.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1990
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/17120

Viabilidade econômica da agroindústria familiar rural de frutas na zona da mata mineira
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Moreira,   Renata Couto; Reis,   Bricio dos Santos; Souza,   Vagner Ferraz; Fialho,   Roberta; Rigueira,   Cristiana Vieria Leocadio.
The called Rural Familiar Agroindustry aims at, over all, the production of value of exchange which takes place in the commercialization. From the presuppose that exists an important pass between the agricultural production and its draining, the article brings an analysis of the economic viability of the rural familiar agroindustry, bringing as case study a typical agroindustry of candies of fruits in the Zona da Mata Mineira region. By the elaboration of the box flow of the project, a sensibility analysis and a risk analysis by the Mont Carlo simulation method were realized. The joined results were favorable to the stimulation to the implantation in a bigger scale, with public policies, of projects as the studied one, as a proposal of regional development.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk analysis; Familiar agriculture; Fruit agroindustry; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54596

VALUATION OF BIOTECHNOLOGY COMPANIES: REAL OPTIONS APPROACH UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ljumovic,   Isidora; Cvijanovic,   Janko; Lazic,   Jelena.
Review article
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Risk; Real options; Valuation; Biotechnology; Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty; D04; D81; L65.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123958

EFFECT OF RISK PERCEPTION ON WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR IMPROVED WATER QUALITY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sukharomana,   Renu; Supalla,   Raymond J.
A CVM survey of WTP for water quality was conducted in October 1997.  Findings suggest that WTP depends logically on risk perceptions and, thus, on the amount of water quality being purchased.  However, erroneous subjective risk opinions were found to bias WTP downward.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20869

Information Modelling for Quality and Sustainability
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lehmann,   Richard J.; Reiche,   Robert; Fritz,   Melanie; Schiefer,   Gerhard.
The food sector is confronted with a growing number of public and private requirements, which call for provision of information about the quality and sustainability of food, such as, e.g., its origin, safety and production conditions. This forces enterprises to innovate towards demand driven and knowledge-based production of food. As a consequence, intra- and inter-enterprise production and information processes have to be integrated and suitable information systems need to be developed to provide information for related decision processes. The present paper introduces a generalized modelling framework for model-based decision support systems (DSS) involving production and information processes across whole supply networks. The different phases of a...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Supply chain management; Model-based decision support systems (DSS); Process integration; Unified Modeling Language (UML); Discrete-event simulation; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59197

RISK MANAGEMENT THROUGH ENTERPRISE DIVERSIFICATION: A FARM-LEVEL ANALYSIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mishra,   Ashok K.; El-Osta,   Hisham S.
Enterprise diversification is a self-insuring strategy used by farmers to protect against risk. This paper examines the impact of various farm, operator, and household characteristics on the level of on-farm diversification. Results provide evidence that larger farms are more specialized. Also, farmers who participate in off-farm income and farms located near urban areas are less likely to diversify. Additionally, results also show a significant positive relationship between diversification and farm/crop insurance and sole proprietorships. Finally, there is also evidence that farms that received government payments are more diversified than their counterparts.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19711

Identifying and Reducing Overlap in Farm Program Support
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cooper,   Joseph C.; O'Donoghue,   Erik J.
The current debate surrounding the 2012 Farm Act stresses cutting costs while maintaining, or even strengthening, farmers’ “safety net.”  One way to cut costs is to reduce or eliminate potential overlap of farm program payments.  Using simulations, we explore the interaction between the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program and a revenue assurance (RA) crop insurance program for corn, soybean, and wheat farmers in IL, MN, and SD.  Additionally, we examine whether receiving benefits from multiple programs (an RA program, the Supplemental Revenue (SURE) program, and an ad hoc disaster assistance program) distorts farmers’ business decisions.  We find overlap between ACRE and crop insurance, which could lead to budgetary savings if these two programs...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Commodity support; Average crop revenue election; Supplemental Revenue Assistance; Expected utility; Corn; Wheat; Soybeans; Agricultural and Food Policy; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103261

Portfolio Allocation and Alternative Structures of the Standard Reinsurance Agreement
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vedenov,   Dmitry V.; Miranda,   Mario J.; Dismukes,   Robert; Glauber,   Joseph W.
This paper examines how insurance companies participating in delivery of crop insurance would change patterns of portfolio allocation across reinsurance funds in reaction to the 2005 Standard Reinsurance Agreement. The returns of insurance companies under the SRA are calculated using a simulation model. An heuristic allocation rule is introduced in order to imitate portfolio allocation strategies of participating companies. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the bulk of changes in portfolio allocations are likely to be caused by the introduction of "retained net book quota share" reinsurance rather than adjustments in the cession limits and retention requirements for the Assigned Risk Fund.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Portfolio allocation strategies; Reinsurance funds; Standard Reinsurance Agreement; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10145

Final Estimates of Arkansas Crop Losses from Poor Harvest Conditions in 2009--January 25, 2010
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hignight,   Jeffrey A.; Stiles,   Scott; Wailes,   Eric J.; Watkins,   Brad; Miller,   Wayne P.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Arkansas; Crops; Disaster; Revenue; Loss; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q10; Q11; Q54.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57087

Cobertura del riesgo precios en los mercados de futuros para carne bovina en el marco de la experiencia uruguaya de 1993.
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lanfranco,   Bruno A.
En la pasada década, Uruguay tuvo su primera experiencia con el mercado de futuros de novillos para faena (MFN), el que funcionó durante los últimos meses de 1993 y hasta comienzos de 1994.  El hecho que el MFN no sobreviviera más que unos pocos meses no implica necesariamente que los mercados de futuros para ganado en pie sean inviables en nuestro país.  En este trabajo se examinaron algunas de las posibles razones que pueden explicar su fracaso.  Es posible que al momento de su implementación no estuvieran dadas todas las condiciones necesarias para su desarrollo.  Un punto a develar es si el bajo volumen operado en el MFN se debió a condiciones estructurales inherentes a las economías pequeñas y, por ende, imposibles de modificar o si, por el contrario,...
Tipo: Book
Palavras-chave: Financial markets; Live cattle; Livestock market; Agribusiness; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; G13; G14.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121755

THE ACCURACY OF PRODUCERS' PROBABILITY BELIEFS:  EVIDENCE AND IMPLICATIONS FOR INSURANCE VALUATION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sherrick,   Bruce J.
The accuracy of producers' subjective probability beliefs is examined through a survey of large cash-grain farmers in Illinois.  Findings reveal that their subjective probability beliefs about important weather variables are systematically mis-calibrated.  The nature and extent of differences between subjective probability beliefs and probabilities based on long-term historic weather data are shown empirically, and through fitted calibration functions.  The economic significance of inaccurate subjective probability beliefs is established in the context of insurance valuation.  The results demonstrate that significant errors in producers' risk assessments and insurance valuation arise as a consequence of producers’' systematically inaccurate probability...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31076

The Impact of Weather Cycles and Crop Yield Autocorrelation on Crop Insurance Yield Guarantees
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Adhikari,   Shyam; Belasco,   Eric J.; Knight,   Thomas O.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Yield Modeling; Crop Insurance; Weather Cycle; Crop Yield Autocorrelation; Agricultural Finance; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103724

Coping with Systemic Risk in Index-based Crop Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shen,   Zhiwei; Odening,   Martin.
The implementation of index-based crop insurance is often impeded by the existence of systemic risk of insured losses. We assess the effectiveness of two strategies for coping with systemic risk: regional diversification and securitization with catastrophe (CAT) bonds. The analysis is conducted in an equilibrium pricing framework which allows the optimal price of the insurance and the number of traded contracts to be determined. We also explore the role of basis risk and risk aversion of market agents. The model is applied to a hypothetical area yield insurance for rice producers in northeast China. If yields in two regions are positively correlated, we find that enlarging the insured area leads to an increasing insurance premium. Unless capital market...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Systemic risk; Risk pooling; Securitization; Risk and Uncertainty; Q11; Q14.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122555

Current Issues in Crop Insurance (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anderson,   Richard.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Risk; Risk Management Agency; Risk and Uncertainty; D81.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48909

USING NON-CONTEMPORANEOUS DATA TO SPECIFY RISK PROGRAMMING MODELS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tew,   Bernard V.; Musser,   Wesley N.; Smith,   G. Scott.
Specification of the variance-covariance matrix holds continuing interest for agricultural economists considering risk programming applications.  This research examines alternative expected value-variance (E-V) frontiers constructed using contemporaneous and non-contemporaneous data and two statistical assumptions concerning crop prices and yields.  Empirical examples from two locations for different crops illustrate the various assumptions.  Considerable differences in the E-V efficient frontiers occur in both empirical settings.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1988
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29066

ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION AND THE OPTIMAL LOCATION OF THE FIRM UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Isik,   Murat.
This paper examines the optimal location of a competitive firm in response to environmental costs imposed by the abatement investment and taxes when the cost of the environmental regulation varies spatially under uncertainty. It contributes to the literature by incorporating the spatial setting into a risk-averse firm's location decisions in the presence of environmental regulation uncertainty. An increase in the cost of the environmental regulation moves a risk-averse firm closer to the output market. An augmented input or emission tax causes the risk-averse firm to locate closer to the output market. Uncertainty about environmental regulations in the form of the abatement investment and taxes also leads a risk-averse firm to locate closer to the output...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk aversion; Uncertainty; Regulation; Market-based policies.; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; R38; Q28.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22066

SUBSIDIZED CROP INSURANCE AND THE EXTENSIVE MARGIN
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: LaFrance,   Jeffrey T.; Shimshack,   Jason; Wu,   Steven Y.
A partial equilibrium model of stochastic crop production is used to analyze the influence of subsidized crop insurance on the extensive margin. The addition of a crop insurance program that is characterized by a perfectly separating equilibrium and an actuarially fair premium for each quality does not change input use or land allocation. However, Risk neutral farmers facing actuarially fair premiums are indifferent between the purchase and not purchase decision. risk averse farmers all will purchase actuarially fair crop insurance. Premium subsidies create incentives for the extensive margin to expand at the lower end of the quality spectrum leading to adverse selection. Land in production without crop insurance remains in production with subsidized crop...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25018

Reallocation of price risk among members
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pedersen,   Michael Friis.
Marketing of milk and meat in Denmark is dominated by two large cooperatives, Arla Foods in the dairy sector and Danish Crown in the pork sector. Members in these cooperatives practically have no possibility for price risk management on their main product. Futures markets for dairy and pork are not utilised, and it is suggested that the reason is prohibitively large basis risk. The events following the global financial crisis suggest increased need for price risk management in Danish agriculture. Since futures markets do not seem to be a viable solution, the paper explores an alternative. Reallocation of price risk among members in marketing cooperatives. Endowing members with a forward contracted share of delivery, and allowing for transfer at a market...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Futures; Hedging; Risk management; Marketing cooperatives; Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty; G13; G32; Q13; D61; D8.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122529

Economic analysis of summer fallow management to reduce take-all disease and N-leaching in a wheat crop rotation
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: de Cara,   Stephane; Jacquet,   Florence; Reynaud,   Arnaud; Goulevant,   Gael; Jeuffroy,   Marie-Helene; Lucas,   Philippe; Montfort,   Francoise.
This paper addresses the question of summer cover crop adoption by farmers in presence of a risk of yield loss due to take-all disease and climate variability. To analyse the public incentives needed to encourage farmers to adopt summer cover crops as a means of reducing N leaching, we combine outputs from an economic, an epidemiological and an agronomic model. The economic model is a simple model of choice under uncertainty. The farmer is assumed to choose among a range of summer fallow managements and input uses on the basis of the expected utility criterion (HARA assumption) in presence of both climate and take all risks. The epidemiological model proposed by Ennaïfar et al. [1] is used to determine the impact of take all on yields and N-uptake. The...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Take-all disease; N leaching; Summer fallow management; Wheat rotation; Catch crop adoption; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51726

AN ECONOMIC AND RISK ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF TILLAGE AND NITROGEN SOURCE ON SOIL CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN CORN PRODUCTION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pendell,   Dustin L.; Boyles,   Scott B.; Williams,   Jeffery R.; Rice,   Charles W.; Nelson,   Richard G.
The economic potential of no-tillage versus conventional tillage to sequester soil carbon using either commercial nitrogen or manure for continuous corn production is evaluated. Results indicate which system provides the highest net returns, which system is preferred by risk averse decision makers, and the price of carbon credits under alternative risk aversion preferences.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34770

Average Crop Revenue Election, Crop Insurance, and Supplemental Revenue Assistance: Interactions and Overlap for Illinois and Kansas Farm Program Crops
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zulauf,   Carl R.; Schnitkey,   Gary D.; Langemeier,   Michael R.
Farm-level data from Illinois and Kansas for the 1991–2007 crops are used to examine the interaction and overlap among crop revenue insurance, Supplemental Revenue Assistance (SURE), and Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE). Compared with 75% Crop Revenue Coverage Insurance (75% CRCP), ACRE provides more payments and has a greater impact on minimum farm revenue for the Illinois farms. In contrast, for the Kansas farms, 75% CRCP has the greater impact. SURE’s relative impact on the Illinois and Kansas farms  depends on the metric. The overlap in payments from ACRE and 75% CRCP resulting from covering the same part of the revenue risk distribution is estimated to be less than 5% of ACRE payments. Several proposals for improving the farm safety net are...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Average Crop Revenue Election Program (ACRE); Crop Revenue Coverage Insurance (CRCP); Farm policy; Food Conservation and Energy Act of 2008; Supplemental Revenue Assistance (SURE); Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty; Q18; Q12.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92589

Expected Utility or Prospect Theory Maximizers? Results from a Structural Model based on Field-experiment Data
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bocqueho,   Geraldine; Jacquet,   Florence; Reynaud,   Arnaud.
We elicit risk preferences of French farmers in a field experimental setting under expected utility theory and cumulative prospect theory. We use two different estimation methods, namely the interval approach and the estimation of a random preference model. On average, farmers are risk averse and loss averse. They also exhibit an inverse S-shaped probability weighting function, meaning that they tend to overweight small probabilities and underweight high probabilities. We infer from our results that CPT explains farmers’ behaviour better than EUT in the context of our experiment. We also investigate how preferences correlate with individual socio-demographic characteristics. We find that education and agricultural innovation are negatively linked with risk...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk preferences; Field experiment; Experimental economics; Prospect theory; Risk and Uncertainty; C91; D81; J16; Q12.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114257

ADVERSE SELECTION IN THE MARKET FOR CROP INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Somwaru,   Agapi; Makki,   Shiva S.; Coble,   Keith H.
This paper examines the potential for adverse selection when farmers are offered a portfolio of insurance policies.  We analyze the risk characteristics farmers who bought alternative insurance instruments in 1996-97.  Inability to differentiate farmers according to risk types results in pooling equilibrium which may implicitly subsidize high risk farmers.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21002

On-farm weather risk management in suckler cow farms: A recursive discrete stochastic programming approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mosnier,   Claire; Agabriel,   Jacques; Lherm,   Michel; Reynaud,   Arnaud.
Currently France wants to introduce a weather risk management framework into its agricultural policy for livestock farming. The aim of this paper is to better understand how on-farm risk reducing strategies modify the production system and profit distribution of French suckler cow enterprises. We present in this paper an original bioeconomic model that takes into account both risk anticipation and risk adjustments and that details biotechnical relationships between the different components of the beef cattle production system and their dynamics. On-farm risk management strategies are endogeneized under weather uncertainty and tested on real observed weather sequences. We simulate four scenarios characterized by different risk aversions and feed prices....
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114645

Measuring Establishment Risk for Risk-Based Inspection  (PowerPoint Presentation)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anderson,   Donald W.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20425

ANALYSIS OF THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROPERTIES OF GRAZING CONTRACTS VERSUS FUTURES AND OPTION CONTRACTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Harrison,   R. Wes; Bobst,   Barry W.; Benson,   Fred J.; Meyer,   Lee.
A stochastic budget simulator and generalized stochastic dominance are used to compare the risk management properties of grazing contracts to futures and option contracts. The results show that the risks of backgrounding feeder cattle are reduced significantly for pasture owners in a grazing contract. However, the risks of the cattle owner in a grazing contract are not significantly reduced. The results show that generally risk adverse pasture owners prefer grazing contracts to integrated production when traditional hedging is used to manage price risks. In addition, grazing contracts compare favorably with put option contracts for some pasture owners.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Backgrounding; Futures contracts; Grazing contracts; Options contracts; Risk management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1996
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15117

INSURING AGAINST LOSSES FROM TRANSGENIC CONTAMINATION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ripplinger,   David G.; Hayes,   Dermot J.; Lamkey,   Kendall R.
Concerns about contamination of the food supply and the financial losses that would result have limited the promise of certain genetically engineered plants. This article addresses the situation by constructing an insurance pricing model to protect against those losses.  The model first estimates the physical dispersal of corn pollen subject to a number of parameters.  This physical distribution is then used to calculate the premium for fair valued insurance that would be necessary to destroy contaminated fields.  The flexible framework can be readily adapted to other crops, management practices, and regions.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Contemporaneous fertility; Insurance; Lagrangian stochastic model; Pharmaceutical-corn; Pollen dispersal; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20350

MODELING THE DECISION TO BUY FLOOD INSURANCE: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR COASTAL AREAS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Landry,   Craig E.; Kriesel,   Warren.
A perennial question about the NFIP is: how can participation be increased?  An empirical analysis reveals that in coastal areas the voluntary participation rate is only nine percent and identifies important determinants of the insurance purchase decision.  It suggests that insurance will not discourage undesirable risk management practices in coastal areas.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21880

Chicago Board of Trade Ethanol Contract Efficiency
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Funk,   Samuel M.; Zook,   James E.; Featherstone,   Allen M.
Firms producing ethanol may find management of the price risk associated with production of this leading alternative fuel a key factor to continued success. As with other agricultural commodities, the influence and ability of futures contracts to serve as a risk management tool deserves attention.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Contract efficiency; Ethanol; Futures contracts; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13; Q43; M31.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6811

PARAMETRIC MODELING AND SIMULATION OF JOINT PRICE-PRODUCTION DISTRIBUTIONS UNDER NON-NORMALITY, AUTOCORRELATION AND HETEROSCEDASTICITY: A TOOL FOR ASSESSING RISK IN AGRICULTURE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.
This study presents a way to parametrically model and simulate multivariate distributions under potential non-normality, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity and illustrates its application to agricultural risk analysis. Specifically, the joint probability distribution (pdf) for West Texas irrigated cotton, corn, sorghum, and wheat production and prices is estimated and applied to evaluate the changes in the risk and returns of agricultural production in the region resulting from observed and predicted price and production trends. The estimated pdf allows for time trends on the mean and the variance and varying degrees of autocorrelation and non-normality (kurtosis and right- or left-skewness) in each of the price and production variables. It also allows...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural risk analysis; Autocorrelation; Heteroscedasticity; Multivariate non-normal simulation; West Texas agriculture; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15486

Phytosanitary Regulations Shape Fruit and Vegetable Trade Patterns
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Romberg,   Megan; Roberts,   Donna.
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123230

Assessment on Merger and Acquisition Risk of Agricultural Manufacturing Enterprises in China
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bian,   Kuanjiang; Yang,   Weiwu.
Composition of merger and acquisition risk of agricultural manufacturing enterprises in China is analyzed, which is mainly strategic risk, external risk, transaction risk and integrated risk. And there are a total of 16 specific sources of risk. Concrete assessment methods for merger and acquisition risk of agricultural manufacturing enterprises are introduced. Firstly, set up the risk factor sets at first and second layers and divide merger and acquisition risk into 5 layers; establish risk assessment matrix according to the score by expert group. Secondly, determine the weights of the various risk factors by the ideology of information entropy. Finally, find out the subordinated vector of risk factor, construct risk assessment matrix, calculate the...
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation
Palavras-chave: Merger and acquisition risk; Information entropy; Risk control; China; Industrial Organization; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56349

The Role of area-yield crop insurance program face to the Mid-term Review of Common Agricultural Policy
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Serrao,   Amilcar; Coelho,   Luis.
The mid-term review of Common Agricultural Policy increases the complexity of the decision-making process of farmers. The subsidies are substituted for a single decoupled income payment. The farmers decide what crops and livestock will produce based on climate, soils conditions and agricultural market signals and not based on subsidies granted to each one of the crop and livestock activities. The area-yield crop insurance program might have an important role on increasing production and facing natural catastrophes. This paper studies the introduction of the area-yield crop insurance program to reduce the risk originating from the variability of farmers'’ income and to compare this alternative with other agricultural policy alternatives in the context of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Cumulative Propospect Theory; Mid-Term Review of the Common Agricultural Policy; Discrete Sequential Stochastic Programming Model; Area-Yield Crop Insurance program; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21411

Modelling Negotiated Decision Making: a Multilateral, Multiple Issues, Non-Cooperative Bargaining Model with Uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sgobbi,   Alessandra; Carraro,   Carlo.
The relevance of bargaining to everyday life can easily be ascertained, yet the study of any bargaining process is extremely hard, involving a multiplicity of questions and complex issues. The objective of this paper is to provide new insights on some dimensions of the bargaining process – asymmetries and uncertainties in particular – by using a non-cooperative game theory approach. We develop a computational model which simulates the process of negotiation among more than two players, who bargain over the sharing of more than one pie. Through numerically simulating several multiple issues negotiation games among multiple players, we identify the main features of players’ optimal strategies and equilibrium agreements. As in most economic situations,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Bargaining; Non-Cooperative Game Theory; Simulation Models; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; C61; C71; C78.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8224

Are Agricultural Options Overpriced?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Urcola,   Hernan A.; Irwin,   Scott H.
As agricultural options markets grow, perceptions of overpricing persist among market participants. This study tests the efficiency of corn, soybean, and wheat options by computing trading returns. Several call and put option strategies yield significant profits, but returns are influenced by movements in the futures price, and straddle trading does not lead to significant returns. The combined analysis of put, call, and straddle returns indicates that significant returns can be attributed to drifts in the underlying futures, and that the corn, soybean, and wheat options markets are efficient.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural options; Mispricing perceptions; Trading returns; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/105525

Impact on the SURE Program on North Dakota Farms
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Taylor,   Richard D.; Koo,   Won W.
Agricultural producer groups have stressed for years the need for a disaster title in the farm bill. In the 2008 Farm Bill, the Supplemental Revenue Assistance Program (SURE) was included to address that need. Previously, producers had to convince Washington to fund ad hoc and emergency disaster declarations in times of low crop returns. This study reviews the SURE program and estimates the effectiveness of the program for North Dakota farmers. The SURE program replaces disaster funding; however it also probably prevents additional assistance under extra ordinary conditions.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: SURE; Supplemental Revenue Assistance Program; 2008 Farm Bill; Net farm income; North Dakota Representative Farm Model; Disaster funding; Agricultural Finance; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46892

ESTIMATING THE DEMAND OF CROP INSURANCE AND SUPPLY OF INDEMNITY PAYMENTS: NEBRASKA AGRICULTURE SECTOR
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shaik,   Saleem; Atwood,   Joseph A.
The objective of this paper is to examine the potential impacts of crop insurance on farm economic structure using Nebraska agriculture sector data from 1980-1997.  We estimate the system of input demand (output supply) equations including policy premium (policy indemnity) in order to examine the economic impacts of crop insurance.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21795

Disease Emergence and Food Security: Global Impact of Pathogens on Sustainable Aquaculture Production
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Walker,   Peter J.
Aquaculture is one of the most rapidly developing sectors of global food production, contributing significantly to socio-economic development by providing food security and export earnings from high-value products. The importance of the industry to the expanding world population is underscored by the growing gap between supply and demand for seafood. However, rapid growth in aquaculture has been accompanied by increasing problems with disease, and disease is now seen as a very significant threat to sustainable production and trade. During the past decade, disease has devastated prawn farming in Asia and Latin America, with annual losses of up to US$3 billion. Devastating losses have also hit the salmon farming industries of Europe and North America, the...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Food Security and Poverty; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124074

Improving Feeder Cattle Basis Forecasts
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dhuyvetter,   Kevin C.; Swanser,   Kole; Kastens,   Terry L.; Mintert,   James R.; Crosby,   Brett.
Forecasting feeder cattle basis has long been difficult because of the myriad factors that influence basis, including input and output prices and lot characteristics.  This research draws upon knowledge of the various factors that influence cash feeder cattle prices to develop hedonic feeder cattle basis models.  Out-of-sample test results provide strong evidence that these hedonic models predict basis more accurately than the multi-year average forecasting approach commonly used by livestock producers.  Results from this research were used to develop a web tool funded by USDA's Risk Management Agency (BeefBasis.com) that producers can use to forecast and understand feeder cattle basis.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Basis; Basis forecasts; Cattle prices; Feeder cattle; Hedging; Price risk management; Agricultural Finance; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42302

IMPLICATIONS OF CROP YIELD AND REVENUE INSURANCE FOR PRODUCER HEDGING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Coble,   Keith H.; Heifner,   Richard G.; Zuniga,   Manuel.
New types of crop insurance have expanded the tools from which crop producers may choose to manage risk. Little is known regarding how these products interact with futures and options. This analysis examines optimal futures and put ratios in the presence of four alternative insurance coverages. An analytical model investigates the comparative statics of the relationship between hedging and insurance. Additional numerical analysis is conducted which incorporates futures price, basis, and yield variability. Yield insurance is found to have a positive effect on hedging levels. Revenue insurance tends to result in slightly lower hedging demand than would occur given the same level of yield insurance coverage.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30895

IMPACTS OF SOCIAL CAPITAL ON INVESTMENT BEHAVIOR UNDER RISK
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hanson,   Steven D.; Robison,   Lindon J.
Implicit in most applications of the expected utility (EU) model is the assumption that only the decision maker's own income matters.  Moreover, studies that estimate risk preferences typically measure how individuals respond to changes in the level and likelihood of having their own income altered (Young).  The focus on own income in the EU model is consistent with the assumption most often applied in the neoclassical economic paradigm; namely, that the identity of participants in an economic exchange does not affect the outcome (Telser and Higinbotham).
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11533

Agricultural risk management in Europe
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bielza,   Maria; Stroblmair,   Josef; Gallego,   Javier; Conte,   Costanza G.; Dittmann,   Christoph.
Replaced with revised version of paper 11/18/08
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk management policy; Agricultural insurance; Calamity funds; Ad-hoc aids; Natural disaster; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9252

PARAMETRIC AND NON-PARAMETRIC CROP YIELD DISTRIBUTIONS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON ALL-RISK CROP INSURANCE PREMIUMS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Turvey,   Calum G.; Zhao,   Jinhua.
Normal, gamma and beta distributions are applied to 609 crop yield histories of Ontario farmers to determine which, if any, best describe crop yields.  In addition, a distribution free non-parametric kernel estimator was applied to the same data to determine its efficiency in premium estimation relative to the three parametric forms.  Results showed that crop yields are most likely to be described by a beta distribution but only for 50% of those tested.  In terms of efficiency in premium estimation, minimum error criteria supports use of a kernel estimator for premium setting.  However, this gain in efficiency comes at the expense of added complexity.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Crop yield distributions; Kernel; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34129

PREMIUM RATES FOR YIELD GUARANTEE AND INCOME PROTECTION CROP INSURANCE FOR GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA PEACHES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Miller,   Stephen E.; Kahl,   Kandice H.; Rathwell,   P. James.
We estimate actuarially sound premium rates for individual yield guarantee and income protection crop insurance products for Georgia and South Carolina peaches.  In most cases, the premium rate for an income protection product equals or exceeds the premium rate for an individual yield guarantee product for a given coverage level and average farm yield.  Although the premium rates for the two products differ in a statistical sense, they do not appear to differ in an economic sense except at high coverage levels for growers with very high yields.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Yield guarantee; Income protection; Peaches; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21699

MEASURING MARKET RISK OF THE CATTLE FEEDING MARGIN: AN APPLICATION OF VALUE-AT-RISK ANALYSIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Manfredo,   Mark R.; Leuthold,   Raymond M.
VaR gives a prediction of potential portfolio losses, with a certain level of confidence, that may be encountered over a specified time period due to adverse price movements in the portfolio's assets.  For example, a VaR of 1 million dollars at the 95% level of confidence implies that overall portfolio losses should not exceed 1 million dollars more than 5% of the time over a given holding period.  This research examines the effectiveness of VaR measures, developed using alternative estimation techniques, in predicting large losses in the cattle feeding margin.  Results show that several estimation techniques, both parametric and non-parametric, provide well calibrated VaR estimates such that violations (losses exceed the VaR estimate) are commensurate...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Value-at-Risk; Cattle Feeding; Volatility; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21628

RISK AND PROFITS INSURANCE AND PRICING STRATEGIES FOR GRAIN PRODUCERS IN SELECTED REGIONS OF THE U.S., A SERIES OF CASE STUDIES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Baldwin,   E. Dean; Wisner,   Robert N.; Blue,   E. Neal.
Pre-harvest corn and soybean options-based pricing strategies, and crop yield and revenue insurance were applied to model farms in three states. These combinations reduced income variability while increasing net incomes relative to uninsured harvest cash sales. Adding crop insurances to pre-harvest pricing reduced net incomes from those with pre-harvest pricing alone,  but produced larger incomes than uninsured harvest sales. The Ohio model farm was modified to reflect (1) a debt-free operation, (2) a cash renter, and (3) a buyer-renter operation. No strategy was able to cover opportunity costs on investments for types (1) and (3). For farm type (3), mean net cash-flow returns were negative for harvest cash sales, but positive when pre-harvest pricing was...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20843

Risk Management in Agricultural Markets: A Survey
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tomek,   William G.; Peterson,   Hikaru Hanawa.
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121140

Small is Beautiful? Firm's Size, Prevention &amp; Food Safety.
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rouviere,   Elodie; Soubeyran,   Raphael.
The European General Food Law of 2005 and the newly promulgated FDA Food Safety Modernization Act (FFSMA) of 2010 ask all food operators to implement preventive efforts. In this article, we explore the link between firm’s size and preventive efforts. We show two main results. First, when there is no cross-contamination, small firms will provide higher preventive efforts than large firms. When there is crosscontamination, the effort-size curve may have a "inverted-U" shape. From our results we can argue that when implementing or enforcing food safety regulations, public authorities should consider both firms size and food safety hazard.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Prevention effort; Firm size; Food safety; Agribusiness; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Industrial Organization; Risk and Uncertainty; Q18; L15; L5.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123410

Financing Constraints and Access to Credit in Post Crisis Environment: Evidence from New Farmers in Alabama
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hartarska,   Valentina M.; Nadolnyak,   Denis A.
We use survey data to study the level of financing constrains faced by new farmers in Alabama post 2008, and identify who got loans. We find that new farmers are financially constrained but not impacted by the crisis. Lending was collateral driven, although lenders also considered profitability and cash flows.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Financing constraints; Access to agricultural credit; New farmers; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; G31; Q12; Q14.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119799

BINGE DRINKING AND RISKY SEX AMONG COLLEGE STUDENTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: DeSimone,   Jeff.
This study examines the relationship between binge drinking and sexual behavior in nationally representative data on age 18–24 four-year college students. For having sex, overall or without condoms, large and significant positive associations are eliminated upon holding constant proxies for time-invariant sexual activity and drinking preferences. However, strong relationships persist for sex with multiple recent partners, overall and without condoms, even controlling for substance use, risk aversion, mental health, sports participation, and sexual activity frequency. Promiscuity is unrelated with non-binge drinking but even more strongly related with binge drinking on multiple occasions. Results from a rudimentary instrumental variables strategy and...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Consumer/Household Economics; Health Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90483

Does On-Farm Quality Assurance Pay? A Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Grainsafe Program
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Karaca,   Umit; Alexander,   Corinne E.; Maier,   Dirk E.
Since the introduction of genetically modified (GM) crops, the commodity grain system has been under pressure to segregate GM and non-GM crops.  Starting at the level of the grain handler, members of the grain supply chain have successfully used quality assurance and identity preservation programs to segregate non GM crops.  Producers delivering high-value, identity-preserved crops have become interested in implementing these quality management systems at the farm level.  We conduct a cost-benefit analysis that shows that quality assurance program may be profitable for producers, depending on their farm size and equipment management strategy.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk; Cost-benefit analysis; Identity preservation; On-farm quality assurance; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q16.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6057

Is Area Yield Insurance Competitive with Farm Yield Insurance?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Barnett,   Barry J.; Black,   J. Roy; Hu,   Yingyao; Skees,   Jerry R.
This article compares risk reduction from MPCI and GRP crop insurance contracts. The analysis extends and improves on the existing area-yield insurance literature in four important respects. First, the geographical scope greatly exceeds that of previous work. Second, unlike previous efforts, the area is not assumed to consist only of those farms included in the analysis. Third, the analysis is based on the actual GRP indemnity function rather than the area-yield indemnity function commonly used in the literature. Fourth, the analysis avoids the questionable assumption that GRP scale can be optimized at the individual farm level. Even with a number of conservative assumptions favoring MPCI relative to GRP, results indicate that at least for some crops and...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Area yield insurance; Multiple Peril Crop Insurance; Risk reduction; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31216

MANAGEMENT OF INTENSIVE FORAGE-BEEF PRODUCTION UNDER YIELD UNCERTAINTY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pope,   C. Arden, III; Shumway,   C. Richard.
Forage production variability is incorporated into a decision theory framework for a beef producer in East Texas.  The results suggest that the least risky, and also the most profitable, approach to intensive forage beef production is to plan for relatively poor weather conditions and low forage production.  This results in a more diverse forage system and a smaller herd size than would be found optimal under the assumption of constant average forage production.  These results also demonstrate that the assumption of constant average forage production may results in grossly exaggerated estimates of expected net returns.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1984
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29728

ANALYSIS OF FARM FINANCING AND RISK MANAGEMENT FOR NORTH DAKOTA FARMERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Koo,   Won W.; Duncan,   Marvin R.; Taylor,   Richard D.
Significant changes under the 1996 FAIR Act and recent trade agreements are occurring in the U.S. farm sector.  The changes will affect both the source and the magnitude of the business and financial risks that farmers will be required to manage. The objectives of this study were to investigate North Dakota farmers' plans regarding business expansion, timing of expansion, and expected financing of that business expansion and to analyze their risk management strategies. The study was based on a statewide survey.  The data were categorized into six groups for analysis: demographics, intergenerational transfer, debt characteristics, lender relationships, business expansion, and farmer expectations of their lenders.  Statistical techniques were used to...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Farm credit; Expansion plans; Debt-to-asset ratio; Farm demographics; Financial tools; Credit sources; Financial services; Non-traditional lending; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23340

AN EXAMINATION OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF ADVERSE SELECTION IN FEDERAL CROP INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shaik,   Saleem; Atwood,   Joseph A.
Different types of adverse selection-type of insurance product, type of unit, type of coverage and number of actual yields reported in Federal crop insurance is examined utilizing binomial and ordered logit discrete choice models for all U.S. cotton producers, 1997-2000.  The associated costs of adverse selection in U.S. cotton range from $32 Million to $359 Million for the four-year period.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36649

AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE INTERVAL APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING RISK PREFERENCES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wilson,   Paul N.; Eidman,   Vernon R.
Previous attempts to measure agricultural decision makers' risk preferences have obtained values of the Arrow-Pratt coefficient in the range of approximately -.0002 to .0012.  The recently developed interval approach for elicitation of risk preferences was used to estimate risk attitudes for Minnesota swine producers.  Constant and decreasing absolute risk aversion were predominant among the sample.  Seventy-eight percent of the respondents were in the Arrow-Pratt interval of  -.0002 to .0003.  A discriminant analysis using producer attributes and three estimated risk intervals concluded that 50 percent of the respondents could be classified in the correct risk interval.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1983
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32100

Gender and irrigation in India: the Women's Irrigation Group of Jambar, South Gujarat.
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: van Koppen,   Barbara; Nagar,   Rashmi K.; Vasavada,   Shilpa.
Documents a "best practice" - a successful gender-balanced irrigation intervention in which women were given control over an irrigation technology. The study evaluates the approach taken by the implementing NGO, the Aga Khan Rural Support Programme, in terms of its replicability in other areas where women share in farm activities and decision making.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Irrigation management; Women in development; Gender; Female labor; Agricultural credit; Decision making; Irrigation programs; Rain-fed farming; Institution building; Pumping; India; South Gujarat; Bharuck; Jambar; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Production Economics; Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51045

Managing Food Industry Business and Financial Risks with Commodity-Linked Credit Instruments
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Turvey,   Calum G.
This paper reviews the use and structure of commodity-linked credit instruments. It is argued that in the absence of contingent markets food firms face increasing financial risk reduced investment, and limited access to debt markets. One strategy is to issue commodity-linked credit whose payment structure is linked to the price of an underlying commodity. In some cases, a commodity-linked bond (CLB) can be structured to provide an incentive to investors by sharing in profit gains. If the goal is to hedge financial risks, CLB's can also be constructed that reduce the loan principle or coupons depending on price movements.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24525

Estimating Cotton Harvest Cost per Acre When Harvest Days are Stochastic
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Farrell,   Matthew; Ibendahl,   Gregory A.
The cotton harvesting industry is in the beginnings of its next technological advance, cotton harvesters that form cotton modules inside the machine then deposit them off the rows. These new machines eliminate the need for extra labor and equipment, but are more expensive than conventional pickers. Increased field efficiency is also a benefit of the on-board module builders. The problem facing producers is determining the optimal number of acres to plan for harvest when trying to decide which harvester to purchase.  This paper examines two objectives. First, determine the cost per acre of both conventional and on-board module harvester systems for different acreage levels assuming harvest hours per year are fixed. Second, make the harvest hours per season...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Cotton harvester; Harvest hours; Cost per acre; Field efficiency; On-board module builder; Crop Production/Industries; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46813

RISK ATTITUDES AMONGST AUSTRALIAN FARMERS: A COMMENT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Drynan,   Ross G.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1981
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22628

SYSTEMATIC AND UNSYSTEMATIC RISK OF RATES OF RETURN ASSOCIATED WITH SELECTED FOREST PRODUCTS COMPANIES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hotvedt,   James E.; Tedder,   Philip L.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1978
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30276

Investment rigidity and policy measures
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Serra,   Teresa; Stefanou,   Spiro E.; Gil,   Jose Maria; Featherstone,   Allen M.
This paper assesses the impacts of decoupled government transfers on production decisions of a sample of Kansas farms observed from 1996 to 2001. Our model allows for risk, risk attitudes and the intertemporal investment decisions. We also allow for different adjustments of the decision variables depending on the predominant economic conditions. The theoretical model is estimated using the threshold regression methods proposed by Hansen (1999). Threshold effects are allowed to characterize the behavior of output supply and quasi-fixed and variable input demand.. The econometric results support the existence of three regimes characterized by different economic behavior. Our analysis suggests that in a dynamic setting with risk and non-risk neutral economic...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Investment; Decoupling; Threshold Behaviour; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6511

QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF U.S. SOYBEAN MARKET
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chen,   Yu-Hui.
This article is the further development and refinement of quarterly models of U.S. field crops, drawing upon the theory of pricing, production, and storage under uncertainty.  The decisions of storage industry and farm production are taken into account.  The findings of this research are both methodological and empirical.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20881

OBTAINING LOWER AND UPPER BOUNDS ON THE VALUE OF SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTS AS A FUNCTION OF RISK PREFERENCES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mjelde,   James W.; Cochran,   Mark J.
A methodological approach to obtain bounds on the value of information based on an inexact representation of the decision maker’s utility function is presented. Stochastic dominance procedures are used to derive the bounds. These bounds provide more information than the single point estimates associated with traditional decision analysis approach to valuing information, in that classes of utility functions can be considered instead of one specific utility function. Empirical results for valuing seasonal climate forecasts illustrate that the type of management strategy given by the decision maker’s prior knowledge interacts with the decision maker’s risk preferences to determine the bounds.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1988
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32118

MANAGING RISK BY COORDINATING INVESTMENT, MARKETING, AND PRODUCTION STRATEGIES:  REPLY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Johnson,   Donald A.; Boehlje,   Michael.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1986
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32251

EFFICIENCY OF WIND INDEXED TYPHOON INSURANCE FOR RICE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Banerjee,   Chirantan; Berg,   Ernst.
Index-based weather insurances are innovative tools for mitigating weather risks in agriculture. Several donor agencies and development organisations are investing substantially to propagate these programmes in developing countries. However, often due to high basis risks, these products mitigate risk only through diversification effect, thereby defeating the intended purpose. Besides, they send confusing messages to the farmers regarding the very concept of insurance. Therefore, this paper investigates the efficiency of two such index-based weather insurances in Philippines, designed to mitigate rice yield loss caused by strong typhoon winds. The insurance products are designed assuming negative linear correlation between wind speed and rice yield. To...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Basis risk; Typhoon; Index-based Insurance; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114240

Investigating the Redundancies in Current Farm Programs
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Knapek,   George M.; Richardson,   James W.; Outlaw,   Joe L.; Raulston,   J. Marc.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm Programs; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98841

SEPARABILITY OF STOCHASTIC PRODUCTION DECISIONS FROM PRODUCER RISK PREFERENCES IN THE PRESENCE OF FINANCIAL MARKETS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chambers,   Robert G.; Quiggin,   John C.
This paper presents a unified treatment of the production and financial decisions available to a firm facing frictionless financial markets and a stochastic production technology under minimal assumptions on the firm's stochastic technology and objective function. The specific focus is on separation results for stochastic technologies, that is, on conditions under which the optimal production decision may be determined without regard to the risk preferences of the firm's owners. Necessary and sufficient conditions for separation, which generalize existing results, are presented.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Financial Economics; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28561

INVESTMENT IN PUBLICLY TRADED FIRMS AS A VERTICAL INTEGRATION AND A RISK DIVERSIFICATION STRATEGY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Detre,   Joshua D.; Gray,   Allan W.; Wilson,   Christine A.
This research investigates the potential of investments in publicly traded value adding firms in the meat industry as a strategy for livestock producers to diversify risk and capture value-added profits, while allowing the producer to maintain management authority and minimize costs. The research determines the optimal portfolio of investments in up to 66 publicly traded value-added companies.  The results indicate tat a portfolio consisting of livestock production and publicly traded value-added companies provides better returns at a lower risk than either a 100 percent investment in livestock production or a combination of livestock production and the S&amp;P 500.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19748

FEDERAL CROP INSURANCE VS. ASCS DISASTER ASSISTANCE FOR TEXAS HIGH PLAINS COTTON PRODUCERS:  AN APPLICATION OF WHOLE-FARM SIMULATION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lemieux,   Catharine M.; Richardson,   James W.; Nixon,   Clair J.
A typical Texas High Plains cotton farm was simulated over a 10-year planning horizon using the FLIPSIM IV model to compare the effects of (a) participation in the Federal Crop Insurance (FCI) program, (b) participation in the ASCS low yield disaster program with either high or low target prices, or (c) nonparticipation.  It was found that the highest level of crop insurance provided similar benefits as the disaster program.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1982
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32264

RISK IN U.S. AGRICULTURE: NEW CHALLENGES AND NEW APPROACHES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Boehlje,   Michael.
Dramatic changes are occurring in the agricultural sector - changes which will result in agricultural industries having many of the characteristics of manufacturing industries.  The rapidly changing business climate is creating a new agriculture with new risks.  And many of these risks require new approaches and different perspectives to adequately assess and manage them.  The new risks will create both challenges and opportunities for farm and agribusinesses and those who finance them.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28614

Accidents Happen: The Effect of Uncertainty on Environmental Policy Design
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sproul,   Thomas W.; Zilberman,   David.
Major externality cases are random accidents which are not adequately addressed by the deterministic environmental policy literature -­‐ that of Pigouvian taxes, abatement subsidies and cap-­‐and-­‐trade. We consider a risk-­‐neutral industry where firms control the probability and Severity of accidents by preventive and responsive choices, but asymmetric information means Government only observes outcomes. We show that even without intervention, some care will be taken, however -­‐ we identify three policies that lead to the optimal solution: strict liability, a Stochastic subsidy, and a mandatory mutual insurance scheme. The subsidy policy may be very costly to taxpayers, especially when prevention affects the probability of accident occurrence, and...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103927

INSURING THE STEWARDSHIP OF BT CORN:  'A CARROT' VERSUS 'A STICK'
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mitchell,   Paul D.; Hurley,   Terrance M.; Babcock,   Bruce A.; Hellmich,   Richard L.
Subsidies and fines are compared to voluntary and mandatory refuge insurance (insurance for pest damage on Bt corn refuge) as mechanisms for securing grower compliance with EPA refuge mandates.  A conceptual model partially ranks mechanisms.  Tradeoffs between mechanisms using grower welfare, payments to growers, and monitoring frequency are quantified empirically.  Grower welfare is lowest with mandatory insurance because growers pay all costs, and is highest with direct refuge subsidies because public funds or companies subsidize all costs.  Assuming typical premium loads and ignoring distribution considerations, we develop monitoring budgets for fines and subsidies, above which voluntary or mandatory insurance is better.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31127

Do Fishermen Have Different Attitudes Toward Risk? An Application of Prospect Theory to the Study of Vietnamese Fishermen
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nguyen,   Quang; Leung,   PingSun.
Field experiment and household survey data are combined to investigate whether working in a risky occupation such as fishing makes fishermen have different risk preferences than individuals in other occupations. Prospect theory is utilized as the main analytical framework and a structural model approach is developed to simultaneously correlate the parameters of the utility function under prospect theory with other socioeconomic variables. The key finding is that working in fishing makes economic agents less risk averse than others. Fishermen also tend to be less sensitive to probability weighting changes in the experiment. It is possible that fishermen have adapted to their unique environment by using specific heuristics for decision making under...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Experimental economics; Prospect theory; Risk behavior; Vietnamese fishermen; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57624

Strategic Pricing Behavior under Asset Value Maximization
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wang,   Shinn-Shyr; Stiegert,   Kyle W.; Dhar,   Tirtha Pratim.
This paper investigates a comprehensive assessment of firm strategic behavior under financial market uncertainty. A general theoretical model of market value maximization (MVM) is constructed using a traditional capital asset pricing format. The model built on the nonlinear Almost Ideal Demand Systems (AIDS) and structural first-order conditions is developed. By full information maximum likelihood (FIML) estimation, the model evaluates pricing strategies in the U.S. margarine and butter retail markets using 4-week interval scanner data from 1998 to 2002. The model of profit maximization is rejected in favor of the MVM structure, and it indicates that financial market uncertainty plays an important role in the pricing behavior in this industry. We estimate...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Market Value Maximization; AIDS; FIML; Model Selection; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19198

WEATHER DERIVATIVES AND SPECIFIC EVENT RISK
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Turvey,   Calum G.
This paper investigates the relationship between weather events and agricultural risks. Specific event risks are defined by outcomes related to a specific event such as low temperature and rainfall. Using Ontario data this paper describes specific events and shows how these specific events can be insured using weather derivatives and insurance.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Heat insurance; Rainfall insurance; Weather derivatives; Weather options; Crop insurance; Agricultural risk; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21550

Regulating Stock Externalities Under Uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Newell,   Richard G.; Pizer,   William A.
Using a simple analytical model incorporating benefits of a stock, costs of adjusting the stock, and uncertainty in costs, we uncover several important principles governing the choice of price-based policies (e.g., taxes) relative to quantity-based policies (e.g., tradable permits) for controlling stock externalities. Applied to the problem of greenhouse gases and climate change, we find that a price-based instrument generates several times the expected net benefits of a quantity instrument. As in Weitzman (1974), the relative slopes of the marginal benefits and costs of controlling the externality continue to be critical determinants of the efficiency of prices relative to quantities, with flatter marginal benefits and steeper marginal costs favoring...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Stock; Externality; Regulation; Policy; Uncertainty; Price; Quantity; Tax; Tradable permit; Pollution; Climate change; Greenhouse Gas; Instrument choice; Risk and Uncertainty; Q28; D81; C61.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10471

The Structural Estimation of Principal-Agent Models by Least Squares: Evidence from Land Tenancy in Madagascar
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Brown,   Zachary S.; Bellemare,   Marc F.
We develop a method to structurally estimate principal-agent models by ordinary least squares (OLS). We set up a general principal-agent model which explicitly incorporates the wealth levels of each party and the opportunity cost to the agent of entering the contract. This yields an optimal contract that is linearized by way of an Nth order Taylor approximation. This in turn imposes N(3N-1)/2 restrictions on the parameters and yields an empirical test of the canonical principal-agent model. In the application, we consider the case where N = 2 and apply our method to a sample of land tenancy contracts in rural Madagascar. Empirical tests lead to consistent failure to reject the hypotheses derived from our structural model, which lends support to our...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Principal-Agent Models; Contract Theory; Structural Estimations; Risk and Uncertainty; C12; C13; D86; O12; Q12.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49368

How to Improve Risk Perception Evaluation in Food Safety: A Psychometric Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cembalo,   Luigi; Cicia,   Gianni; Verneau,   Fabio.
Food consumers often query or ignore the risk assessments of scientists, the food industry and public bodies. This is widely acknowledged. It has been suggested that this ‘expert-lay discrepancy’ is a relatively straightforward upshot of the fact that lay people lack the knowledge and technical understanding of experts. However, much published research on risk in psychology and sociology runs counter to this ‘knowledge deficit’ model (Hansen et al., 2003). In many cases, at least, lay risk assessments are not well explained as the product of ignorance, because they are in fact complex, situational sensitive expressions of a person's value system. There is obviously a pressing need today to understand expert-lay discrepancies in the assessment of food...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59193

RISK BALANCING STRATEGIES IN THE FLORIDA DAIRY INDUSTRY: AN APPLICATION OF CONDITIONAL VALUE AT RISK
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zylstra,   Michael J.; Kilmer,   Richard L.; Uryasev,   Stanislav.
Legislation has prompted changes in milk price volatility.  Milk price volatility impacts the producer's exposure to business risk which is compound by the firms financial risk.  Financial risk is a function of the firms capital structure.  In the short run it is difficult for the producer to significantly change the firms capital structure and therefore balance increased business risk with reduced financial risk.  The producer can however reduce financial and business risk by using futures contracts to lock in a price for milk produced.  The producer's risk preferences dictate the producer's hedge ratio.  Using the return on equity as a profitability measure and the conditional value at risk as a risk measure the optimal hedge ratio is derived for various...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Conditional Value at Risk; CVaR; Risk Management; Futures; Dairy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22021

A RISK PROGRAMMING APPROACH TO DESIGNING CONTRACTS TO REDUCE NITRATE LEACHING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chu,   Mei-Chin; Swinton,   Scott M.; Batie,   Sandra S.
As contractual agriculture expands, contract design offers a non-regulatory opportunity to reduce non-point source pollution.  A risk programming analysis of seed corn contract designs illustrates a tractable empirical principal-agent model, and shows that grower risk preferences affect contract acceptability and efficiency at reducing nitrate leaching.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1997
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11594

On the Systemic Nature of Weather Risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Xu,   Wei; Filler,   Gunther; Odening,   Martin; Okhrin,   Ostap.
Systemic weather risk is a major obstacle for the formation of private (nonsubsidized) crop insurance. This paper explores the possibility of spatial diversification of insurance by estimating the joint occurrence of unfavorable weather conditions in different locations. For that purpose copula methods are employed that allow an adequate description of stochastic dependencies between multivariate random variables. The estimation procedure is applied to weather data in Germany. Our results indicate that indemnity payments based on temperature as well as on cumulative rainfall show strong stochastic dependence even at a national scale. Thus the possibility to reduce risk exposure by increasing the trading area of the insurance is limited. Irrespective of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Weather risk; Crop insurance; Copula; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; C14; Q19.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51426

THE PRICING OF DEGREE-DAY WEATHER OPTIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Turvey,   Calum G.
This paper presents a model and framework for pricing degree-day weather derivatives when the weather variable is a non-traded asset.  Using daily weather data from 1840-1996 it is shown that a degree-day weather index exhibits stable volatility and satisfies the random walk hypothesis.  The paper compares the options prices from the recommended model and compares it to a typical insurance-type model.  The results show that the insurance model overprices the option value at-the-money and this may explain why the bid-ask spreads in the weather derivatives market is sometimes very large.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Weather derivatives; Degree-day options; Weather risk; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34109

Comparison of the Investment Behavior of German and Kazakhstani Farmers: an Experimental Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tubetov,   Dulat; Maart,   Syster Christin; Musshoff,   Oliver.
Revised April 2012
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Experimental Economics; Investment Timing; Real Options; Kazakhstan; Germany; Agricultural Finance; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; International Development; Risk and Uncertainty; C91; D03; D81; D92.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122422

Securing the Border from Invasives:  Robust Inspections Under Severe Uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Moffitt,   L. Joe; Stranlund,   John K.; Osteen,   Craig D.
Two important features of agricultural quarantine inspections of shipping containers for invasive species at U.S. ports of entry are the general absence of economic considerations and the severe uncertainty that surrounds invasive species introductions. In this article, we propose and illustrate a method for determining an inspection monitoring protocol that addresses both issues. An inspection monitoring protocol is developed that is robust in maximizing the set of uncertain outcomes over which an economic performance criterion is achieved. The framework is applied to derive an alternative to Agricultural Quarantine Inspection (AQI) for shipments of fruits and vegetables as currently practiced at ports of entry in the United States.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Inspection; Invasive Species; Uncertainty; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q18; Q57; D81.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53127

Valuing the Changes in Herbicide Risks Resulting from Adoption of Roundup Ready Soybeans by U.S. Farmers: A Revealed-Preference Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sydorovych,   Olha; Marra,   Michele C.
Valuing the Changes in Herbicide Risks Resulting from Adoption of Roundup Ready Soybeans by U.S. Farmers: A Revealed-Preference Approach
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Pesticide human and environmental risks; Revealed preferences; Roundup Ready soybeans; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q51.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/47258

The Allocation of Advertising and Research Dollars in the Florida Orange Juice Industry
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Brown,   Mark G.; Spreen,   Thomas H.
This study considers the allocation of Florida citrus-grower money between advertising and research programs to maximize grower revenue net of program costs. The allocation depends on the impact of advertising on demand and the impacts of research on the cost of production and supply. A number of studies have estimated the impact of advertising on OJ demand, but little is known about the impact of research. Research on citrus greening, a disease that has no known cure, is examined in the present study. There are no past studies to reliably gauge the impact of this research. The approach taken here is to ask if a given amount of research dollars is needed to reduce average production costs by certain amount, then what should be spent on advertising based on...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59191

INVESTMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY AND DYNAMIC ADJUSTMENT IN FINNISH PORK INDUSTRY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pietola,   Kyosti; Myers,   Robert J.
A dynamic dual model of investment under uncertainty is applied to a panel of Finnish hog farms.  Stochastic dynamic programming is used to characterize duality relations.  The model accommodates irreversibility and/or asymmetric adjustment costs.  Results have important implications for Finland's hog industry as it adjusts to entry into the European Unit.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20953

Increasing volatility of input costs in the EU agriculture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Himics,   Mihaly; Van Doorslaer,   Benjamin; Ciaian,   Pavel; Shrestha,   Shailesh.
In this paper the impact of possible input cost developments on the EU agriculture is analysed under ceteris paribus conditions. Two scenarios are developed with the partial equilibrium model CAPRI. The scenarios assume symmetric input price changes in positive and negative directions around a projected baseline in year 2020. The magnitude of the input price changes are based on observed volatility. To measure the volatility, the annual time-series of the CoCo database were analysed, which contains input cost estimates for a multitude of agricultural activities and cost categories at the geographical level of the EU countries. Our results suggest that the uncertainty in input cost development has a strong potential to affect commodity market balances and...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Input costs; Volatility; CAPRI; Farm income; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122531

A Categorical Data Analysis on Risks in Agriculture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Uematsu,   Hiroki; Mishra,   Ashok K.
This study compares farm operators’ risk perceptions and actual realization of risk attitudes revealed through off-farm labor, enterprise diversification, and use of contracts, crop insurance, and other types of insurance, using data from 2001 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS). Results from ordered logit model and multivariate probit models unexpectedly found that risk loving farmers are more likely to employ risk management strategies.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Labor and Human Capital; Marketing; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; Q10; Q12.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98839

Assessing the Impacts of Soil Carbon Credits and Risk on No-Till Rice Profitability
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Watkins,   K. Bradley; Hignight,   Jeffrey A.; Anders,   Merle M.
Rice is a major cash crop in eastern Arkansas, but most rice acres are intensively cultivated and grown on rented land.  No-till is an effective means of sequestering soil carbon and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and economic incentives exist for no-till in the form of carbon credits.  Studies evaluating the economic potential of carbon credits focus on producers only and do not take into consideration the landlord’s perspective.  This analysis evaluates the profitability and risk efficiency of no-till management and carbon credits in Arkansas rice production from the prospective if the landlord using simulation and stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF). The results indicate carbon credits may have potential to enhance preference for...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Certainty equivalent; Landlord; No-till; Rice; Risk premium; Farm Management; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45806

Calibrating a regional PMP model of agricultural supply under multiple constraints: a set of matryoshka doll conditions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Garnache,   Cloe; Merel,   Pierre R.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114630

INTERPRETATIONS AND TRANSFORMATIONS OF SCALE FOR THE PRATT-ARROW ABSOLUTE RISK AVERSION COEFFICIENT:  IMPLICATIONS FOR GENERALIZED STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Raskin,   Rob; Cochran,   Mark J.
The Pratt-Arrow measure of absolute risk aversion, as defined by r(x)=-un(x)/u1(x), is well known to be invariant to linear transformations.  However, this invariance property applies with respect to transformations of u and not with respect to arbitrary rescalings of the outcome variables, x.  The effects of this misunderstanding has led to ambiguity in classifying attitudes by risk aversion coefficients.  It is shown that inappropriate rescalings of the outcome variable can lead to inaccurate rankings produced by generalized stochastic dominance.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1986
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32243

MICROECONOMIC EVALUATION OF FARM RISK MANAGEMENT DECISIONS IN KENTUCKY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kanakasabai,   Murali; Dillon,   Carl R.; Skees,   Jerry R.
The primary objective of this research is to integrate various avenues of risk management to provide a unified risk management strategy for the Kentucky producer. In addition the optimal insurance purchasing behavior and the impact of moral hazard on the optimal decisions of producers across risk levels is also studied. The study utilizes biophysical simulation modeling and quadratic programming to arrive at its results.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36178

Production Risk, Farmer Welfare, and Bt Corn in the Philippines
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sanglestsawai,   Santi; Rejesus,   Roderick M.; Yorobe,   Jose M., Jr.
This article examines the production risk effects and welfare implications of Bt corn adoption in the Philippines by specifically considering the impact of Bt on the mean, variance, and skewness of yields. Assessing the skewness effects of Bt provides further inferences about the downside risk protection of this technology in a developing country context. Stochastic production function estimation is utilized to achieve the study objective, including an approach that allows for examining the skewness effects of Bt within a damage abatement specification. Our results indicate that Bt corn do not have a statistically significant risk-reducing (i.e., variance-reducing) or downside risk-reducing (i.e., skewness-increasing) effect, the main benefit is through...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Bt corn; Damage Abatement; GM crop; Production Risk; Downside risk; Skewness; Stochastic Production Function; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q1.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124237

Análise de risco para o café em Minas Gerais
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rugani,   Felipe do Lago; Silveira,   Suely de Fatima Ramos.
The coffee is one of the most important products in the economy of Minas Gerais. In some specific places it has a great importance in the local production, but in any place the economic players involved in that market have the same trouble: the share of risk taken by them. Therefore, would be really important, and useful, to calculate the risk share of each player. Than, this article showed the risk amount absorbed by the players in the coffee market of Minas Gerais, based in the prices paid in the south of that state, the greatest region producer, trough two models of Value at Risk (VaR), the Normal Model and the Historic Simulation Model. The results shows a risk absorbed about 17,28%, with 95% of sure, and 24,60% with 99% of sure, both of them in a...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk Management; VaR; Coffee; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55185

EX-ANTE EVALUATION OF AGRI-ENVIRONMENTAL SCHEMES: COMBINING ELEMENTS OF PRIVATE AND PUBLIC DECISION MAKING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bartolini,   Fabio; Gallerani,   Vittorio; Viaggi,   Davide.
The objective of this paper is to set a complete ex-ante evaluation to support Decision Makers in designing more efficient and effective agri-environmental contracts, through an integrated modelling of elements of private and public decision making. Ex-ante comparison of policy design options in terms of overall effectiveness requires both simulations of farmers' behaviour and evaluation of the farms simulations outcomes. An intermediate step is the aggregation of single farms impacts at territorial level, in order to identify the aggregate impact of each alternative. Alternatives are several contract design, based on different levels of payments. Farm level analysis is based on a real options approach including in the simulations the timing of choice and...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agri-environmental schemes; Real Options; Investments; Decoupled payments; Uncertainty; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6639

Cotton Production in Uganda: Would GM technologies be the Solution?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Horna,   J. Daniela; Kyotalimye,   Miriam; Falck-Zepeda,   Jose Benjamin.
The government of Uganda is currently testing the performance of genetically modified (GM) cotton varieties. Cotton is cultivated in Uganda for two main reasons: 1) agro-ecological conditions favor cotton cultivation, and 2) there is a long tradition of cotton cultivation in the country. Two main research questions are addressed in this study: a) would the adoption of genetically modified (GM) cotton benefit Ugandan farmers? b) Would the use of GM seed be more profitable than the low input traditional system or than the organic production system? Stochastic budget analysis is used to address these questions. The results show that estimated values of cotton profitability do not seem to justify the investment in a complex technology. The question then is how...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Stochastic budget analysis; GM cotton; Organic cotton; Agricultural and Food Policy; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; O3; O31; O55.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51823

Is There a Link Between Actual and Perceived Wildfire Danger?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kaval,   Pamela.
Over the last 20 years, costs for wildfire initial attack in the U.S. have increased significantly. The increased cost relates to wildfire suppression practices as well as the growing number of wildland urban interface (WUI) homes. Requiring WUI residents to pay an annual tax for their wildfire risk would lower costs to the general taxpayer. Willingness-to-pay (WTP) for wildfire prevention, in relation to both perceived and actual wildfire danger, was the focus of this study. Colorado WUI residents had a high awareness of wildfire risk and were willing to pay over $400 annually to reduce this risk. Respondents beliefs about wildfire frequency were comparable to the original natural wildfire regimes of their areas pre-European settlement.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: GIS; Wildfire risk; Stakeholder; Contingent valuation; Colorado; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37090

The Impact of Price-Induced Hedging Behavior on Commodity Market Volatility
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kauffman,   Nathan S.; Hayes,   Dermot J.
The utility maximization problem of a grain producer is formulated and solved numerically under prospect theory as an alternative to expected utility theory. Conventional theory posits that the optimal hedging position of a producer is not affected solely due to changes in the level of futures prices. However, a strong degree of positive correlation is apparent in the data. Our results show that with prospect theory serving as the underlying behavioral framework, the optimal hedge of a producer is affected by changes in futures price levels. The implications of this price-induced hedging behavior on spot prices and volatility are subsequently considered.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Futures markets; Hedging; Prospect theory; Risk preferences; Agribusiness; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; D03; D81; G11; Q13.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103242

Crop Yield and Revenue Insurance: Choosing Between Policies That Trigger On Farm vs. County Indexes
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chaffin,   Ben.
Insurance policies that trigger on county yield and revenue indexes are expected to be more actuarially fair than policies that trigger on individual farm yield and revenue since individual farm hidden actions and hidden information impacting purchase decisions will be built into insurance premium rates.  Findings are expected to help farmers, insurance agents, lenders, and those in academia better understand and evaluate insurance policies that trigger indemnity payments based on county indexes. Case studies are provided to facilitate understanding of tracking between farm and county yields and the importance of the farm-county yield correlation. A protocol is developed to standardize county and farm yields to better illustrate tracking and rules-of-...
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48303

Life Insurance Funding of Buy-Sell Arrangements in Small Businesses
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tauer,   Loren W.
Buy-sell arrangements for the death of a co-owner may be funded with life insurance. The mechanisms and details of buy-sell arrangements were discussed.  The decision whether to use life insurance was modeled using the expected utility theorem. State dependent utility was used since a surviving partner may become more (or less) risk averse upon the death of a co-owner. Life insurance funding is preferred at relatively low amounts of risk aversion, especially if the surviving partner becomes more risk averse after the co-owner's death. A lower percentage of life insurance would be used if insurance premiums are significantly above actuarially fair premiums.  Given currently available insurance rates, most closely held small businesses probably should fund...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14733

Supply of Food Safety under Competing Inspection Schemes (Risk Mitigation Strategies)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mojduszka,   Eliza M.; Schaub,   James D.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103942

PORK RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR THE ALBERTA HOG INDUSTRY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Novak,   Frank S.; Unterschultz,   James R.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24053

A plot of one's own: gender relations and irrigated land allocation policies in Burkina Faso
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zwarteveen,   Margreet Z.
Discusses the potential opportunities and pitfalls of introducing market forces into the process of water allocation. Proposes several preconditions for beneficial privatization of water allocation and argues for a more sophisticated form of analysis than that generally allowed by proponents of basic needs or of free market approaches.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Women in development; Gender; Land use; Land management; Policy; Female labor; Households; Irrigated farming; Social impact; West Africa; Burkina Faso; Dakiri; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Land Economics/Use; Political Economy; Productivity Analysis; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1996
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61114

The Relationship Between Wildfire and Welfare
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kaval,   Pamela; Loomis,   John B.
We used the well-being evaluation method, a technique for measuring individual utility, to study how people in the wildland urban interface of Colorado (USA) felt about their lives before and after two wildfire scenarios. Variables such as age, family size, fire frequency, and house value were found to affect initial well-being levels. However, after a significant life event, such as a wildfire, many variables that initially affected well-being were no longer significant. We found that after wildfire, the frequency of wildfire occurrence became the most important influence on well-being.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Well-being evaluation method; Colorado; Happiness; Wildland urban interface; Wildfire intensity; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Health Economics and Policy; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Land Economics/Use; Livestock Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98517

MODELING AND SIMULATING PRICE, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION DISTRIBUTIONS FOR RISK ANALYSIS IN AGRICULTURE: DISCUSSION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zacharias,   Thomas P.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15479

FARM FINANCIAL STRUCTURE DECISIONS UNDER DIFFERENT INTERTEMPORAL RISK BEHAVIORAL CONSTRUCTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nelson,   Carl H.; Escalante,   Cesar L.
An alternative unconstrained expected-utility maximization model of farm debt is developed using the location-scale parameter condition that incorporates the empirically validated hypotheses of decreasing absolute and constant relative risk aversion. Simulation-optimization results based on the old and new model versions provide interesting implications for various levels of risk aversion and initial equity investments.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34756

The Effect of Changing Government Subsidy Programs: An Analysis of Revenue at the Farm level
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Coble,   Keith H.; Thomas,   Sarah E.; Miller,   J. Corey.
Producer revenue is simultaneously simulated for several hundred county-specific representative farms.  The effects of current and alternative commodity programs are analyzed.  In particular, two variations of revenue-triggered programs similar to plans proposed by the National Corn Growers Association are evaluated.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Commodity policy; Simulation; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q180.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34931

Valuing the risk associated with willow and miscanthus relative to conventional agricultural systems
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Clancy,   Daragh; Breen,   James P.; Butler,   Anne Marie; Thorne,   Fiona S.; Wallace,   Michael T.
The agronomic characteristics of willow and miscanthus make these crops highly susceptible to risk. This is particularly true in a country such as Ireland which has limited experience in the production of these crops. Issues such as soil and climate suitability have as yet to be resolved. The lengthy production lifespan of energy crops only serve to heighten the level of risk that affects key variables. The uncertainty surrounding the risk variables involved in producing willow and miscanthus, such as the annual yield level and the energy price, make it difficult to accurately calculate the returns of such a project. The returns from willow and miscanthus are compared with those of conventional agricultural enterprises using Stochastic Efficiency with...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Biomass; SERF; Risk Premium; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43972

Risk-Management Practices for Specialty-Crop Producers in California, Florida, New York, and Pennsylvania
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Weldon,   Richard N.; Jung,   Jione.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/26733

RISIKOWAHRNEHMUNG IN MILCHVIEHBETRIEBEN: EINE EMPIRISCHE STUDIE ZUR VERGLEICHENDEN BEWERTUNG VON POLITIK-, MARKT- UND PRODUKTIONSRISIKEN
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wocken,   Christian; Schaper,   Christian; Lassen,   Birthe J.; Spiller,   Achim; Theuvsen,   Ludwig.
Im Zuge der Reform der EU-Agrarpolitik werden seit dem Midterm-Review zunehmend weniger politische Instrumente zur Stützung des europäischen Milchmarkts eingesetzt. Dadurch und durch die wahrscheinlich im Zuge der WTO-Verhandlungen erfolgende Lockerung des EU-Außenschutzes werden Milcherzeuger wesentlich stärker als bisher den Kräften des Marktes und den damit verbundenen Risiken ausgesetzt. Vor diesem Hintergrund war das Ziel der vorliegenden Studie, die Risikowahrnehmung der Landwirte aus einer verhaltenswissenschaftlichen Perspektive zu untersuchen. Datengrundlage bildet eine Befragung von 236 Milcherzeugern zum Risikomanagement auf ihren Betrieben. Dabei wurden Politik-, Markt- und Preis- sowie Produktionsrisiken hinsichtlich ihrer...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Risikowahrnehmung; Wahrnehmungsverzerrungen; Risikomatrix; Framing.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52667

The Scientific Pluralism of Agribusiness: A Special Issue on Theory and Practice: Forward
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Harrison,   R. Wes; Ng,   Desmond W.
The IFAMR is published by the International Food and Agribusiness Management Association.  www.ifama.org
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Scientific pluralism; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Marketing; Productivity Analysis; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession; Q130.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119965

Is Risk Aversion Really Correlated with Wealth? How estimated probabilities introduce spurious correlation
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lybbert,   Travis J.; Just,   David R.
Economists attribute many common behaviors to risk aversion and frequently focus on how wealth moderates risk preferences. This paper highlights a problem associated with empirical tests of the relationship between wealth and risk aversion that can arise when the probabilities individuals face are unobservable to researchers. The common remedy for unobservable probabilities involves the estimation of probabilities in a profit or production that includes farmer, farm and agro-climatic variables. Unfortunately, these variables are often correlated with wealth such that estimated probabilities are likely to leave statistical fingerprints on subsequently-estimated risk aversion coefficients and may thereby introduce spurious correlations between wealth and...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21167

The Basic Formula Price Futures Contract: A New Dairy Industry Risk Management Tool
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jesse,   Edward V.; Cropp,   Robert A.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1997
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12694

EFFECTS OF WEATHER EVENTS ON LOSS RATIOS FOR CROP INSURANCE PRODUCTS: A COUNTY-LEVEL PANEL DATA ANALYSIS.
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mafoua,   Edouard; Turvey,   Calum G.
The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship over time between specific weather events (drought, excessive rainfall, cold weather, etc…) and loss ratios for crop insurance products.  The study also investigates the impact of rainfall and extreme heat on field and fruit crop insurance loss ratios.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20113

Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) Program or Traditional Government Payment Programs: What Factors Matter?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chen,   Yunguang; Wang,   H. Holly; Patrick,   George F.
Rankings of different risk management portfolios including Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE), traditional government payment programs, crop insurance and hedging in futures; and optimal choices of insurance coverage levels and hedge ratios are evaluated for a representative central Indiana corn farm, using Monte Carlo simulation and optimization of expected utilities. The changes of preference between ACRE and traditional government programs under comprehensive scenarios of price and yield risks are studied. Also, Interactions between ACRE and other risk management instruments are examined, and government costs and risk management efficiencies between ACRE and traditional government programs are compared. The results show a strong preference of ACRE for...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: ACRE; Farm Bill; Crop insurance; Willingness to pay; Government expenditure; Government programs; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61490

Yellow river comprehensive assessment: Basin features and issues – Collaborative research between International Water Management Institute (IWMI) and Yellow River Conservancy Commission (YRCC)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zhu,   Zhongping; Giordano,   Mark; Cai,   Ximing; Molden,   David J.; Hong,   Shangchi; Zhang,   Huiyan; Lian,   Yu; Li,   Huian; Zhang,   Xuecheng; Zhang,   Xinghai; Xue,   Yunpeng.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Flood control; Water scarcity; Environmental degradation; Groundwater; Social aspects; River basin development; Water use efficiency; Crop production; Wetlands; Water pollution; Water policy; Reforms; Water quality; Flood plains; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92661

PROMOTING CONSERVATION INNOVATION IN AGRICULTURE THROUGH CROP INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cubie,   Jim.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32928

Weather-Based Crop Insurance Contracts for African Countries
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Karuaihe,   Raphael N.; Wang,   H. Holly; Young,   Douglas L.
Weather constitutes the major source for production risk in agriculture. Weather index can be used construct crop insurance that demand less information and can avoid moral hazard and adverse selection problems. Based on mean-variance model, theoretical results on the optimal insurance coverage and its impact from risk preference, basis risk, and premium loading are derived, which are quite consistent to the empirical results from the expected utility model. Using South Africa corn data, we investigate growers' demand and efficiency of alternative hypothetical weather index crop insurance programs. In contrast to previous work that suggests that a single-variable weather index suffices to develop an insurance contract, this study shows that the insured...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty; C51; C61; G22; Q14.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25378

AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, INTERDEPENDENCE AND UNCERTAINTY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anderson,   Jock R.
Interdependence has always been central to economics but assumes pressing importance for agricultural economists as they deal with industrialising agricultures. Continued unresolvable uncertainties, when properly recognised, also add to the challenge of relevant work in agricultural economics. The related roles of interdependence and uncertainty are illustrated through examples from the progress of agricultural technology and enhancement of food security.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1982
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22610

THE ECONOMICS AND IMPLICATIONS OF EX-ANTE REGULATIONS IN ADDRESSING PROBLEMS OF MORAL HAZARD IN AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Islam,   Zahirul; Hoy,   Michael; Turvey,   Calum G.
In this paper we develop a theoretical model of input supply by agricultural producers who purchase crop insurance and so who may engage in moral hazard.  We show, through simulations, that a combination of partial insurance coverage combined with a minimum standard for input use may reduce substantially the problems associated with moral hazard.  Partial insurance coverage creates an incentive for the producer to increase his use of inputs since the cost of lower output is partially borne by the producer, an outcome which would not be present under full coverage insurance.  Partial monitoring of inputs, in the form of a minimum requirement for input use, has a direct effect on the reduction of moral hazard.  We show that, rather than being substitute...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34127

RISK AND RISK MANAGEMENT IN HUNGARIAN LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION WITH A SPECIAL REGARD TO SHEEP PRODUCTION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nemessalyi,   Zsolt; Madai,   Hajnalka; Nabradi,   Andras.
The aim of this paper is to give an overview of the risk attitudes of Hungarian sheep producers regarding the changes they have had to go through since the political changes of 1989-1990. Moreover, the objective of this study is to strengthen the empirical basis for risk analysis by identifying the importance of farmers' risk attitudes. The results of a nationwide survey of over 500 sheep farmers presented a framework of risk attitudes, risk sources and applied risk management techniques of livestock producers..
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk sources; Risk management; Sheep farming; EU accession; Field survey; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q100; Q190; R230.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20233

Factors Affecting Farmers’ Utilization of Agricultural Risk Management Tools: The Case of Crop Insurance, Forward Contracting, and Spreading Sales
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Velandia,   Margarita M.; Rejesus,   Roderick M.; Knight,   Thomas O.; Sherrick,   Bruce J.
Factors affecting the adoption of crop insurance, forward contracting, and spreading sales are analyzed using multivariate and multinomial probit approaches that account for simultaneous adoption and/or correlation among the three risk management adoption decisions. Our empirical results suggest that the decision to adopt crop insurance, forward contracting, and/or spreading sales are correlated. Richer insights can be drawn from our multivariate and multinomial probit analysis than from separate, single-equation probit estimation that assumes independence of adoption decisions. Some factors significantly affecting the adoption of the risk management tools analyzed are proportion of owned acres, off-farm income, education, age, and level of business risks.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Adoption decisions; Crop insurance; Forward contracting; Multinomial probit; Multivariate probit; Risk management; Spreading sales; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; G22; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48751

Expanding the Focus of Cost-Benefit Analysis for Food Safety: A Multi-Factorial Risk Prioritization Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Caswell,   Julie A.
A pressing need in the area of food safety is a tool for making overall, macro judgments about which risks should be given priority for management. Governments often seek to base this prioritization on public health impacts only to find that other considerations also influence the prioritization process. A multi-factorial approach formally recognizes that public health, market-level impacts, consumer risk preferences and acceptance, and the social sensitivity of particular risks all play a role in prioritization. It also provides decision makers with a variety of information outputs that allow risk prioritization to be considered along different dimensions. Macro-level prioritization of risks based on multiple factors is an important expanded use of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Cost-benefit analysis; Food safety; Risk prioritization; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty; I18; L51; Q18; K32; H11.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42131

Enhancing Farm Profitability through Portfolio Analysis: The Case of Spatial Rice Variety Selection
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nalley,   Lawton Lanier; Barkely,   Andrew; Watkins,   Brad; Hignight,   Jeffrey A.
This study applies portfolio theory to rice varietal selection decisions to find profit maximizing and risk minimizing outcomes. Results based on data from six counties in the Arkansas Delta for the period 1999–2006 suggest that sowing a portfolio of rice varieties could have increased profits from 3 to 26% (depending on the location) for rice producers in the Arkansas Delta. The major implication of this research is that data and statistical tools are available for rice producers to improve the choice of rice varieties to plant each year in specific locations. Specifically, there are large potential gains from combining varieties that are characterized by inverse yield responses to growing conditions such as drought, pest infestation, or the presence of a...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Optimal variety selection; Portfolio analysis; Rice; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; G11; Q15; Q12.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56650

Technology Adoption And Pest Control Strategies Among  UK Cereal Farmers: Evidence from Parametric and  Nonparametric Count Data Models
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sharma,   Abhijit; Bailey,   Alastair; Fraser,   Iain.
This paper examines technology adoption and integrated pest management strategies employed by UK farmers, using both parametric and nonparametric methods.  We employ a unique survey data set collected from UK cereal farmers to assess  the determinants of technology adoption in relation to pest management. Our preferred model specification is nonparametric which makes use of the recently developed methods of Li and Racine (2007) and Racine and Li (2004). These methods allow us to combine categorical and continuous data and thereby avoid sample splitting and resulting efficiency losses. Our analysis reveals that total area farmed is positively related to the number of technologies adopted, whereas age is negatively  related. We also find evidence of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Technology; Adoption; Cereal farming; UK; Nonparametric; Environmental Economics and Policy; Industrial Organization; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty; O14; Q16.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51335

The Effects of the Micro-Market Structure for Kansas Grain Elevators on Spatial Grain Price Differentials
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: O'Brien,   Daniel M.
Corn and wheat cash prices in Kansas are affected by a number of local supply-demand, market structure, transportation access and other factors. Kansas corn prices in 2008 were affected by form of business organization, local feedgrain production and livestock feed usage, elevator storage capacity, access to railroad grain handling facilities, and to a limited degree by the number of competitors in local markets. Geographic proximity to grain ethanol plants did not have a positive impact on local corn prices, although a number of mitigating factors may exist. Kansas wheat prices in 2008 were affected by local wheat production, elevator storage capacity, the number of competitors in local markets, and by location relative to flour mills. Evidence of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Grain markets; Market structure; Grain ethanol; Wheat flour; Monopsonistic competition; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53041

International Environmental Agreements: Emissions trade, safety valves and escape clauses
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Karp,   Larry S.; Zhao,   Jinhua.
We explain how the structure of multi-national or multi-regional environmental agreements affect their chance of success. Trade in emissions permits has ambiguous and in some cases surprising effects on both the equilibrium level of abatement, and on the ability to persuade nations or regions to participate in environmental agreements. An escape clause policy and a safety valve policy have essentially the same properties when membership in environmental agreement is pre-determined, but they create markedly different effects on the incentives to join such an agreement. The two policies lead to a qualitative difference in the leverage that a potential member of the agreement exercises on other members.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Kyoto Protocol; Escape clause; Emissions trade; Cost uncertainty; Participation game; International Environmental Agreement; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; C72; H4; Q54.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51611

FORWARD CONTRACTS AND CROP INSURANCE: SHOULD PREMIUMS BE ADJUSTED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT PRACTICE?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sil,   Jayashree.
Current premium rate-making methodology for the government-sponsored Multiple Peril Crop Insurance (MPCI) program adjusts premiums for farms engaging in certain cropping practices. These practices are production methods such as irrigation, fallow and double-cropping. Actuarial evidence has shown that such practices can separate farms into distinct risk classes. We suggest that risk-management tool is another category of practice which could be considered in setting premium rates. The present analysis shall focus on one risk management tool: cash forward contracts. Making this assessment requires that we use a key actuarial concept called loss cost ratio. Preliminary evidence (from sam ple moments of yield distributions) suggests that indeed the loss cost...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19638

Towards a Generalizable Measure of the Value of a Change in Pesticide Use
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sydorovych,   Olha; Marra,   Michele C.
This study develops a comparable measure of pesticide risks.  Based on revealed preference method an index system is developed for individual pesticides combining the information on different environmental and health risks.  A data obtained from a survey of U.S. farmers has revealed that on average the adoption of Roundup Ready soybeans results in reduced toxicity of herbicides.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35513

Abstracts of Selected Papers, NAREA Annual Meetings, Burlington, Vermont, June 7-10, 2009
Provedor de dados: 31
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; Industrial Organization; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Labor and Human Capital; Land Economics/Use; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Political Economy; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Public Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55550

A NOTE ON DECREASING ABSOLUTE RISK AVERSION AMONG FARMERS IN NEPAL
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hamal,   K.B.; Anderson,   Jock R.
Attitudes toward risk are explored for a sample of rice growers on small farms in Nepal, in the context of the subjective expected utility maximisation model. Farmers are found to be generally averse to risk, with diverse levels of absolute risk aversion that tend to diminish as wealth increases, both for individuals and in a cross-sectional sense. Relative risk aversion is argued to be the most comparable measure for contrasts of attitudes toward risk.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1982
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22708

TARGET MOTAD FOR RISK LOVERS: AN ALTERNATIVE VERSION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rudel,   Richard K.; McCamley,   Francis P.
An earlier paper presented a direct expected utility maximization version of Target MOTAD for risk lovers.  This paper presents an indirect expected utility maximization version which is more like Tauer's Target MOTAD model.  This alternative version is illustrated by applying it to the same problem which Tauer considered.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36328

Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wang,   H. Holly; Ke,   Bingfan.
The efficiency of the Chinese wheat and soybean futures markets is studied. Formal statistical tests were conducted based on Johansen’s cointegration approach for three different cashmarkets and six different futures forecasting horizons ranging from1 week to 4 months.The results suggest a long-termequilibrium relationship between the futures price and cash price for soybeans and weak short-term efficiency in the soybean futures market. The futures market for wheat is inefficient, which may be caused by overspeculation and government intervention.
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Cointegration; Futures market; Price; Soybean; Wheat; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/118441

Do Transaction Costs and Risk Preferences Influence Marketing Arrangements in the Illinois Hog Industry?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Franken,   Jason R.V.; Pennings,   Joost M.E.; Garcia,   Philip.
Risk reduction and transaction costs are often used to explain contracting in the U.S. hog industry with little empirical support. Using a unified conceptual framework that draws from risk behavior and transaction cost theories, in combination with unique survey and accounting data, we demonstrate that risk preferences and asset specificity impact Illinois producers’ use of contracts and spot markets. In particular, producers’ investments in specific hog genetics and human capital are related to selection of long-term marketing contracts over spot markets. Producers who perceive greater levels of price risk and/or are more averse are more (less) likely to use contracts (spot markets).
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Asset specificity; Contracts; Hogs; Risk attitude; Risk behavior; Risk perception; Transaction costs economics; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54548

Risk Analysis in Selected European and International Food Chains
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ameseder,   Christoph; Haas,   Rainer; Fritz,   Melanie; Schiefer,   Gerhard.
The purpose of this study is to assess and evaluate the most important risks in selected European and international food chains from the perspective of the buying company. The primary objective is to identify the “non-acceptable” risks in terms of damage potential and likelihood of occurrence of value chains in the sectors grain, meat, fruit and vegetable, and olive oil. Data was collected by each partner of the European research project “e-trust” (FP6-CT-2006-043056) by conducting 81 qualitative expert interviews with business leaders in Europe (Austria, Germany, Greece, Italy, Slovenia, Spain) as well as in Brazil, Turkey, and the USA. The study focuses on a wider supply chain or network perspective for the risk assessment. Methodically the assessed...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Risk analysis; Supply chain; Food; Risk map; Risk classification; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Security and Poverty; Industrial Organization; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58708

A Risk Analysis of Carbon Sequestration in Claypan Soil with Conservation Tillage Systems and Nitrogen Fertilizers for Grain Sorghum and Soybean
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Williams,   Jeffery R.; Pendell,   Dustin L.; Sweeney,   Daniel; Rice,   Charles W.; Nelson,   Richard G.
Replaced with revised version of paper 02/15/06.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Carbon sequestration; Carbon credits; Nitrogen; Risk; Tillage; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35327

Financing Matters
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Malcolm,   Bill.
Farms systems are open to financial systems. Financing matters. Analysis of questions about management of farms is a multi-dimensional task; focusing on economic efficiency only partly does the job. A financial system channeling funds efficiently from the non-farm sector to the farm sector, doing so in many and varied ways that meet the specific and different requirements of farm businesses is the key to a farm sector that is liquid and, as a consequence, makes it possible for farmers to use resources efficiently and to grow their wealth.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100582

Federal Crop and Crop Revenue Insurance Programs: Revenue Assurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Smith,   Vincent H.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29229

Bankruptcy Risk and Imperfectly Enforced Emissions Taxes
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Stranlund,   John K.; Zhang,   Wei.
Under favorable but reasonable conditions, an imperfectly enforced emissions tax produces the efficient allocation of individual emissions control; aggregate emissions are independent of whether enforcement of the tax is sufficient to induce the full compliance of firms, and differences in individual violations are independent of firm-level differences. All of these desirable characteristics disappear when some firms under an emissions tax risk bankruptcy—the allocation of emissions control is inefficient, imperfect enforcement causes higher aggregate emissions, and financially insecure firms choose higher violations.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Bankruptcy; Emissions Taxes; Limited Liability; Environmental Economics and Policy; Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; L51; Q28; Q58.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42127

PREFERENCE AMONG RISKY PROSPECTS UNDER CONSTANT RISK AVERSION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: McCarl,   Bruce A.
Risk analyses often require a measure of individual risk aversion.  Here a procedure is presented to calculate risk aversion parameter ranges wherein individuals would exhibit preference among a set of risky prospects.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1988
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29266

Social Limits to Trust. The Significance of Embeddedness for Consumers Coping with Uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dulsrud,   Arne; Norberg,   Hans Martin.
Except for few studies, not many have analyzed the significance of embeddedness and networks for consumers coping with uncertainty. In our explorative study based on focus groups in Norway and Germany, consumers’ attitudes to purchasing of seafood are further explored. We find that fish in various contexts is conceived as “spooky”, which signifies its credence attributes. According to a conversational analysis, we find that consumers classify seafood along various dimensions associated with both health risk and sensory quality. Most salient is the distinction between fresh fish and frozen fish. Whereas frozen fish very seldom entails notions of risk, purchasing of fresh fish evokes scepticism and uncertainty. We discuss strategies among consumers for...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Consumers; Trust; Information; Embeddedness; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7760

CHEMICAL AND FERTILIZER APPLICATIONS IN RESPONSE TO CROP INSURANCE: EVIDENCE FROM CENSUS MICRO DATA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Roberts,   Michael J.; O'Donoghue,   Erik J.; Key,   Nigel D.
This paper presents preliminary evidence on the effect of crop insurance on fertilizer and chemical inputs in agriculture.  Our estimates are based on two sources of identification that emerge from a policy change concerning insurance subsidies that approximately doubled total premiums and the share of acres insured.  First, we compare per-acre applications on these inputs from the same farms before and after the policy change.  Second, we compare farm-level changes in input applications to differential changes in coverage growth induced by the policy change.  We are able to make this second comparison because farms in some regions were more heavily insured than others before the policy change so they were not required to increase coverage in order to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21895

Modeling Exit and Entry of Farmers in a Crop Insurance Program
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cabas,   Juan H.; Leiva,   Akssell J.; Weersink,   Alfons.
This paper examines the factors influencing farmer participation in crop insurance schemes, but unlike previous studies that focus on total demand, participation is disaggregated into entrants and those exiting. Modeling entry and exit decisions separately illustrates that the effect of a given variable is often muted by aggregation. In addition, the approach in this paper distinguishes between price and yield variables rather than total returns and is consequently able to demonstrate that price variables are particularly important for farmers considering enrolling in crop insurance, while yield variables and other risk management opportunities are more important for farmers who have been in the program but are deciding to exit. The result suggests that...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Entry and exit; Panel data; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44741

Should Basic Underwriting Rules be Applied to Average Crop Revenue Election and Supplemental Revenue?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Barnaby,   Glenn Arthur, Jr.
This paper considers methods to adversely select on Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) and Supplemental Revenue (SURE). In the case of winter wheat, farmers had a large amount of a priori yield and price information before electing 2009 ACRE. Prior to the August 14 sign-up for ACRE, wheat was 3 months into the marketing year. In most years nearly half of the national average price is determined in the first 3 months of the marketing year. With this available information it was clear that Oklahoma, Texas, and Washington wheat would collect the maximum or near the maximum ACRE payment, while there was little chance that ACRE would pay on Colorado wheat.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Adverse Selection; Average Crop Revenue Election; Crop Insurance; Supplemental Revenue; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Political Economy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q18.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92590

Investment in Cellulosic Biofuel Refineries: Do Renewable Identification Numbers Matter?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Miao,   Ruiqing; Hennessy,   David A.; Babcock,   Bruce A.
A floor and trade policy in Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) is the market mechanism by which U.S. biofuel consumption mandates are met. A conceptual model is developed to study the impact of RINs on stimulating investment in cellulosic biofuel refineries. In a two-period framework, we compare the first-period investment level (FIL) in three scenarios: (1) laissez-faire, (2) RINs under a nonwaivable mandate (NWM) policy, and (3) RINs under a waivable mandate (WM) policy. Results show that when firm-level marginal costs are constants, then RINs under WM policy do not stimulate FIL but they do increase the expected profit of more efficient investors. When firm-level marginal costs are not constants, however, RINs under WM policy stimulate FIL. RINs...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Cellulosic biofuels; Investment; Renewable Identification Numbers; Waivable mandate; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94001

Differences in Prices and Price Risk Across Alternative Marketing Arrangements Used in the Fed Cattle Industry
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Muth,   Mary K.; Liu,   Yanyan; Koontz,   Stephen R.; Lawrence,   John D.
Information on prices and price risk differences across marketing arrangements aids fed cattle producers in making choices about marketing methods. As part of the congressionally mandated Livestock and Meat Marketing Study, we investigated fed cattle price and price risk differences across marketing arrangements. The analysis uses data representing cattle purchased by 29 large beef packing plants from October 2002 through March 2005. Results indicate that marketing agreements offered the best tradeoff between price level and price risk. Forward contracts had the lowest average yet highly volatile prices. Auction barn prices were higher than other methods but also the most volatile.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Alternative marketing arrangements; Fed cattle; Hedonic; Price risk; Price volatility; Prices; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36711

Risky Loss Distributions and Modeling the Loss Reserve Pay-out Tail
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cummins,   J. David; McDonald,   James B.; Merrill,   Craig.
Although an extensive literature has developed on modeling the loss reserve runoff triangle, the estimation of severity distributions applicable to claims settled in specific cells of the runoff triangle has received little attention in the literature. This paper proposes the use of a very flexible probability density function, the generalized beta of the 2nd kind (GB2) to model severity distributions in the cells of the runoff triangle and illustrates the use of the GB2 based on a sample of nearly 500,000 products liability paid claims. The results show that the GB2 provides a significantly better fit to the severity data than conventional distributions such as the Weibull, Burr 12, and generalized gamma and that modeling severity by cell is important to...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Loss distributions; Loss reserves; Generalized beta distribution; Liability insurance; Risk and Uncertainty; C16; G22.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50154

FARM SYNDICATION AND RISK SHARING: A CASE STUDY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bartholomaeus,   M.K.; Hardaker,   J. Brian.
The effectiveness of fully integrated group farming as a means of permitting farmers to achieve economies by working together and to share risk is investigated using two case-study farms from the mid-north region of S.A. Linear programming is used to explore the scope for economies achievable through group farming. The results show that, by joint use of resources, total net farm income can be increased and average costs per unit value of output can be reduced. The risk-sharing advantages of group farming are examined using quadratic risk programming. A group farm plan is found that generates a risky income which, when shared between the two risk-averse farmers, allows both to increase their expected utilities. The group plan also generates a higher...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1981
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22312

Risk Efficient Strategies for Using Winter Wheat Pasture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Taylor,   Karen W.; Epplin,   Francis M.; Peel,   Derrell S.
Replaced with revised version of paper 08/31/06.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35393

Urban wastewater:  A valuable resource for agriculture - A case study from Haroonabad, Pakistan
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: van der Hoek,   Wim; Ul Hassan,   Mehmood; Ensink,   Jeroen H.J.; Feenstra,   Sabiena; Raschid-Sally,   Liqa; Munir,   Sarfraz; Aslam,   Rizwan; Ali,   Nazim; Hussain,   Raheela; Matsuno,   Yutaka.
Farming communities in water-scarce regions increasingly practice the use of urban wastewater in agriculture. Untreated urban wastewater is generally considered unacceptable for direct use because of potential health risks. However, in many parts of the world, poor farmers in peri-urban areas use untreated wastewater. This situation is considered likely to continue even in the foreseeable future due to the high investment cost associated with the installation of treatment facilities.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Waste waters; Irrigation water; Water reuse; Economic analysis; Soil properties; Households; Water availability; Water use; Water quality; Groundwater; Public health; Risks; Case studies; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44566

A COMPARISON OF CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Baker,   Timothy G.; Gloy,   Brent A.
Several criteria that produce rankings of risk management alternatives are evaluated.  The criteria considered are Value at Risk, the Sharpe ratio, the necessary condition for first degree stochastic dominance with a risk free asset, and the necessary condition for second degree stochastic dominance with a risk free asset.  The effectiveness of the criteria increases as decision-makers are assumed to be more risk averse and have greater access to financial leverage.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21726

Managing Global Climate Change An Executive Interview with David Lobell
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jose,   H. Douglas.
Many of the world’s poorest regions could face severe crop losses in the next two decades because of climate change, according to Dr. David Lobell, a Senior Research Scholar at Stanford University in the program on Food Security and Environment. The average world temperature is increasing slightly says Lobell and a one-degree Celsius increase over time greatly impacts climatic growing conditions. Unfortunately, agriculture is also the human enterprise most vulnerable to changes in climate. Understanding where these climate threats will be is central to our efforts in fighting hunger and poverty over the coming decades. Dr. Lobell outlines some of the challenges that lie ahead and steps researchers are taking to combat the issues. This interview was...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Food Security and Environment; Climate threats; Hunger and poverty; Global warming; Food Security and Poverty; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q10; Q27.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53805

Willingness to Pay for a Potential Insurance Policy: Case Study of Trout Aquaculture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Shaik,   Saleem; Coble,   Keith H.; Hudson,   Darren; Miller,   James C.; Hanson,   Terrill R.; Sempier,   Stephen H.
Using trout producer survey data and the contingent valuation method, we estimate willing-ness to pay for a potential insurance policy. The survey was conducted in 2005 across the United States; 268 producers completed the survey instrument, resulting in a response rate of 81 percent. Design of the contingent valuation method takes into account two coverage levels and four premium rates. Using standard willingness-to-pay techniques, we assess the premium rate that producers with varying practices and regions are willing to pay for two different cov-erage levels of insurance. In general, trout producers appear willing to pay premium rates of 2 to 11 percent for these coverage levels.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Willingness to pay; Subjective elicitation and survey data; Aquaculture trout insurance; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44737

INTERPRETATIONS AND TRANSFORMATIONS OF SCALE FOR THE PRATT-ARROW ABSOLUTE RISK AVERSION COEFFICIENT:  IMPLICATIONS FOR GENERALIZED STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE:  REPLY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cochran,   Mark C.; Raskin,   Rob.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1987
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32221

TOWARDS MEASURING PRODUCER WELFARE UNDER OUTPUT PRICE UNCERTAINTY AND RISK NON-NEUTRALITY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bullock,   David S.; Shin,   Kie-Yup; Garcia,   Philip.
We combine theory with numerical integration methods to show that for any form of uncompensated supply, compensating variation of a change in higher moments of an output price distribution can be numerically derived.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Producer welfare; Price uncertainty; Risk; Demand and Price Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21713

PACIFIC NORTHWEST GRAIN GROWNERS' INCOME RISK MANAGEMENT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ke,   Bingfan; Wang,   H. Holly.
In this paper, we identified the most desirable farm income risk management strategies for two rotation systems in the Pacific Nowthwest(PNW)area under a framework of expected utility maximization. Insurance programs available to PNW farmers and wheat futures market instruments are included in this study. The risk management effectiveness of each instrument and the substitute effect of revenue insurance programs on the combination of yield insurance and futures market are also evaluated.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36061

An Empirical Analysis of Access to Finance for Danish Farms: Understanding Investment and the Absence of Risk Management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Olsen,   Jakob Vesterlund; Pederson,   Michael Friis.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114591

INSURING UNCERTAINTY IN VALUE-ADDED AGRICULTURE: ETHANOL PRODUCTION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Paulson,   Nicholas D.; Babcock,   Bruce A.; Hart,   Chad E.; Hayes,   Dermot J.
A wide variety of insurance products is available to agricultural producers to insure against yield or price risks in the markets for the raw commodities they produce. Value-added enterprises, such as ethanol production, have been expanding over the last decade. This paper outlines the development of an insurance product aimed at corn producers who are members of an ethanol production cooperative. The product has the potential to provide these producers with a new and useful risk management tool to insure against price risks in the markets for corn, distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS), ethanol, and natural gas. Monte Carlo analysis is used to develop fair premiums at various coverage levels. A historical correlation structure is imposed on the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Correlations; Ethanol; Insurance; Risk management; Value-added agriculture; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18375

The foregone risk premium: a communicative and practical method for the evaluation of risk-return profiles in agriculture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wauters,   Erwin; De Cock,   Lieve; Wit,   Jan de; Lauwers,   Ludwig H.
Risk considerations have become increasingly important in nowadays agriculture, due to a variety of reasons. Surprisingly, the practice of formalized risk management is not widespread despite the huge amount of scientific literature on this topic. This discrepancy between risk science and extension is described by many authors. This paper presents a communicative method, rooted in financial economics, to evaluate risk-return profiles in a way that is communicative for individual farmers. The method is derived from the modern portfolio theory, in which individual assets are implicitly compared to the risk-return trade-off of that asset with the highest Sharpe ratio. We use this idea to compare individual risk-return profiles to a particular benchmark. The...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115737

AJAE Appendix: Valuing Agricultural Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chambers,   Robert G.
The material contained herein is supplementary to the article named in the title and published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Volume 89, Number 3, August 2007.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7406

Tajikistan’s Vulnerability to Climate Change
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lerman,   Zvi.
Tajikistan is classified by the World Bank as one of the CIS countries that are most vulnerable to climate change risks. This paper provides a closer look at a set of variables that determine Tajikistan’s vulnerability to risk in general and to climate change risk in particular. After presenting some background information on Tajikistan (Chapter 1), we provide a conceptual introduction to vulnerability and discuss some quantitative approaches to vulnerability assessment that have been recently applied in the literature (Chapters 2-4). We then use official statistical data for Tajikistan to assess quantitatively a range of basic variables that are recognized in the literature as determinants or drivers of vulnerability (Chapter 5). These variables include...
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Tajikistan; Climate change; Vulnerability; Land management; Food insecurity; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120259

ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF BT CORN REFUGE INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mitchell,   Paul D.; Hurley,   Terrance M.; Hellmich,   Richard L.
The EPA has imposed mandatory refuge requirements for Bt crops to prolong the efficacy of Bt.  Growers have no economic incentive to plant the required refuge because refuge crops are on average less productive and more risky.  This paper evaluates refuge insurance--insurance that pays indemnities for yield losses on refuge due to insect damage--as a tool to increase grower compliance incentives.   We determine actuarially fair insurance premiums, then evaluate the feasibility of private provision of refuge insurance and its impact on grower incentives to comply with refuge requirements.  A private market for refuge insurance appears unlikely because our analysis suggests that even a 2% load on the actuarially fair premium makes growers unwilling to buy...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21757

Country Risk and the Mundell-Fleming Model Applied to the 1999-2000 Argentine Experience
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ortiz,   Javier; Rodriguez,   Carlos A.
In this paper we propose a modification of the traditional Mundell-Fleming model. The extended model introduces the implications of including the fiscal deficit and international reserves as determinants of the level of country risk. This slight modification of the traditional paradigm leads to radical changes in the effects that fiscal and monetary policies have in economies with high capital mobility under an extreme version of a fixed exchange rate regime (Currency Board). We use the proposed model to evaluate some of the economic policies implemented between December 1999 and March 2001 by the first economic team under the Presidency of Fernando De la Rúa in Argentina. Additionally, we suggest that some of the main results obtained from the model are...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Open economy macroeconomics; Country risk for Argentina; Reserves; Convertibility; Risk and Uncertainty; F41.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44295

Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Wildfire Risks in the U.S. Forest Sector
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chen,   Xuan; Goodwin,   Barry K.
In the US forestry industry, wildfire has always been one of the leading causes of damage. This topic is of growing interest as wildfire has caused huge losses for landowners, residents and governments in recent years. While individual wildfire behavior is well studied (e.g. Butry 2009; Holmes 2010), a lot of new literature on broadscale wildfire risks (e.g. by county) is emerging (e.g. Butry et al. 2001; Prestemon et al. 2002). The papers of the latter category have provided useful suggestions for government wildfire management and policies. Although wildfire insurance for real estate owners is popular, the possibility to develop a forestry production insurance scheme accounting for wildfire risks has not yet been investigated. The purpose of our paper is...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Wildfires; Forestry; Weather; Socio-economic; Spatio-Temporal autocorrelation; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103628

NONPARAMETRIC KERNEL ESTIMATION OF MULTIPLE HEDGE RATIOS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kim,   MinKyoung; Leuthold,   Raymond M.
It is possible for the traditional hedge ratio estimation to produce erroneous guidance to risk managers because of the restrictive assumptions.  This study adopts nonparametric locally polynomial kernel estimation to exclude the assumptions.  Results from the hog complex find that hedge ratios estimated by local polynomial kernel regression outperform naïve and GARCH models.  Because of the potential assumption violations associated with the estimation and implementation of hedge ratios by GARCH models, LPK is a reasonable alternative for estimating hedge ratios to manage price risks.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21737

Testing for linear and threshold cointegration under the spatial equilibrium condition
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Araujo-Enciso,   Sergio Rene.
Economic theory states that the spatial equilibrium condition is a region where prices can be or not cointegrated. It is when prices are within such a region when they are no cointegrated, when prices are in its boundaries they are not only cointegrated but also fulfilling the Law of One Price (LOP). Nonetheless the econometric techniques assume a mean reverting process in order to test for cointegration, either linear or non linear.  This research shows that in the absence of such mean reverting process by using prices in pure equilibrium, cointegration (linear and non linear) is often rejected. Such findings go in line with the Band Threshold Autoregressive Model where the neutral band is a region of no cointegration. Furthermore it can be concluded that...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Spatial Equilibrium Condition; Testing Cointegration; Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; C15; E37.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122545

The Challenge of Reaching Transparency: ‘T-readiness’ of Enterprises and Sector Networks
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fritz,   Melanie; Schiefer,   Gerhard.
Discussions on the safety and quality of food as well as growing interest in the sustainability of the production, distribution and consumption of food have contributed to the emergence of ‘transparency’ as a critical success factor for the food sector. However, reaching transparency for different stakeholders from different backgrounds and cultural identities is a dynamic process which depends on certain capabilities of enterprises and organizations along the food value chain but also on the realization of a fitting communication scheme within the sector. This discussion asks for the identification and utilization of an indicator that could identify deficiencies and support enterprises and the sector in reaching a level of transparency that could serve...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97020

MODELING YIELD DISTRIBUTION IN HIGH RISK COUNTIES: APPLICATION TO TEXAS UPLAND COTTON
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chen,   Shu-Ling; Miranda,   Mario J.
Very little attention has been given to the modeling of yield distribution for crops and regions in which yields exhibit irregular behavior.  We undertake a statistical case study of Texas upland cotton and propose an alternative mixture distribution based on regime-switching model in which the conditional distribution of yield depends upon an observable drought index.  The results show that the mixture distribution model provides a better fit to the data than conventional parametric distributions and produces higher implied premium rates than the current published Group Risk Plan insurance rates in more than two-thirds of Texas counties examined.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21392

ANIMAL HEALTH: THE POTENTIAL ROLE FOR LIVESTOCK DISEASE INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Grannis,   Jennifer L.; Green,   John W.; Bruch,   Megan L.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/27972

Asymmetric Information in the Market for Yield and Revenue Insurance Products
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Makki,   Shiva S.; Somwaru,   Agapi.
This report analyzes farmers' choice of crop insurance contracts and tests for the presence of asymmetric information in the market for multiple yield and revenue insurance products. Farmers' risk characteristics, their level of income, and the cost of insurance significantly affect their choices of yield and revenue insurance products as well as their selections of alternative coverage levels. Empirical analysis indicates that, in the presence of asymmetric information, high-risk farmers are more likely to select revenue insurance contracts and higher coverage levels. The results also indicate that premium rates do not accurately reflect the likelihood of losses, implying asymmetrical information in the crop insurance market.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Asymmetric information; Adverse selection; Crop insurance; Revenue insurance; Risk management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33587

Risk and Risk Management in Organic and Conventional Dairy Farming: Empirical Results from Norway
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lien,   Gudbrand D.; Flaten,   Ola; Ebbesvik,   Martha; Koesling,   Matthias; Valle,   Paul Steinar.
The objective of this study was to provide empirical insight into dairy farmers' goals, relative risk attitude, sources of risk and risk management responses. The study also examines whether organic dairy farming, leads to important risk sources not experienced in conventional farming and, if so, how those extra risks is managed. The data originate from a questionnaire survey of conventional (n=370) and organic  (n=160) dairy farmers in Norway. The results show that organic farmers have somewhat different goals than conventional farmers, and that the average organic farmer is less risk averse. Institutional risk was perceived as the most important source of risk, independently of conventional or organic production system, while organic farmers indicated...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24382

EFFECT OF REVENUE INSURANCE ON ENTRY AND EXIT DECISIONS IN TABLE GRAPE PRODUCTION: A REAL OPTION APPROACH
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Seo,   Sangtaek; Salin,   Victoria; Mitchell,   Paul D.; Leatham,   David J.
This study determines the entry and exit thresholds of table grape farming with irreversible investment under uncertainty.  Real option approach is adopted to consider the investment and management flexibility.  Also revenue insurance is introduced to consider the effect of the risk management programs on the entry and exit thresholds.  Results show that revenue insurance increases the entry and exit thresholds by 1% and 4%, respectively, thus discouraging new investment and current farming, as long as the revenue guarantee is less than the exit threshold.  Revenue insurance increases the entry threshold by 3% and decreases the exit threshold by 13% as long as the revenue guarantee is greater than the exit threshold.  In this case, revenue insurance...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20229

Complex Choices: Producers Risk Management Strategies
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pennings,   Joost M.E.; Isengildina,   Olga; Irwin,   Scott H.; Good,   Darrel L.; Garcia,   Philip; Frank,   Julieta; Kuiper,   W. Erno.
Producers have a wide variety of risk management instruments available. How do producers make a choice of risk management instruments? Using the recently developed choice bracketing framework, we examine what risk management strategies producers use and identify the factors that drive their risk management decisions. Our results identify that producers use a wide variety of combinations of risk management instruments and that they bracket their choices into sets of alternative risk management instruments. Using multinomial logit models to estimate the choice process provides information about the factors that influence producers' decision making. The results show that broad bracketing producers use different risk management instruments than narrow...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19550

Perceived risks in cross-border transactions in agri-food chains
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ameseder,   Christoph; Canavari,   Maurizio; Cantore,   Nicola; Deiters,   Jivka; Fritz,   Melanie; Haas,   Rainer; Matopoulos,   Aristides; Meixner,   Oliver; Vlachopoulou,   Maro.
Nowadays, agri-food chains are more global than ever and are characterized by increased imports and exports and global sourcing of products, resulting in increased cross-border transaction risks. The objective of this paper is to identify the typical risks regarding agri-food supply chains involved in cross-border transactions and to assess their importance as perceived by agri-food managers. The analysis takes into consideration four different agrifood value chains (meat, grain, olive oil, fresh vegetables and fruits). Following an explorative approach and a qualitative technique, a series of face to face in-depth interviews was conducted. Results indicate that risk perception may be quite different across countries, value chains, tiers of the supply...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Perceived Risks; Cross-Border Transactions; Agri-Food Chains; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57659

TESTING FOR RISK PREMIUMS IN THE WHEAT-FLOUR SUBSECTOR
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cotterill,   Ronald W.; Salih,   Hachim M.
This paper specifies a model of wholesale flour price determination that incorporates risk measures for input prices (wheat) and a joint output price (millfeed). Tests using daily price data for a Buffalo flour miller indicate that risk premiums do exist. Moreover, these premiums persist in a model that incorporates hedging.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1992
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116109

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE INTERTEMPORAL STABILITY OF RISK PREFERENCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Love,   Ross O.; Robison,   Lindon J.
The interval measurement approach was used to obtain risk preference measures for 23 Michigan farmers in 1979 and again in 1981.  This paper analyzes how risk preferences of the individuals in this group of decision-makers changed over a two year time period.  Risk preferences were most stable near typically experienced personal income levels.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1984
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29597

The Budgetary and Producer Welfare Effects of Revenue Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hennessy,   David A.; Babcock,   Bruce A.; Hayes,   Dermot J.
The efficiency of redistribution of a government provided revenue insurance program is compared with the 1990 farm program.  The results indicate the revenue insurance would be more efficient because it would provide subsidies when and only when revenue is low and marginal utility is high, and it works on the component of the objective function (revenue) that is of greatest relevance to producers.  Simulation results indicate that a revenue insurance scheme that guarantees 75 percent of expected revenue to risk-averse producers could provide approximately the same level of benefits as the 1990 program, at as little as one-fourth the cost.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1997
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18628

A Comparison of Traditional and Copula based VaR with Agricultural portfolio
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mandal,   Maitreyi; Lagerkvist,   Carl Johan.
Mean-Variance theory of portfolio construction is still regarded as the main building block of modern portfolio theory. However, many authors have suggested that the mean-variance criterion, conceived by Markowitz (1952), is not optimal for asset allocation, because the investor expected utility function is better proxied by a function that uses higher moments and because returns are distributed in a non-Normal way, being asymmetric and/or leptokurtic, so the mean-variance criterion cannot correctly proxy the expected utility with non-Normal returns. Copulas are a very useful tool to deal with non standard multivariate distribution. Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) have emerged as a golden measure of risk in recent times. Though...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Portfolio Choice; Downside Risk Protection; Value at risk; Copula; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; C52; G11; Q14.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124387

Product Life Cycles and Innovation in the US Seed Corn Industry
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Magnier,   Alexandre; Kalaitzandonakes,   Nicholas G.; Miller,   Douglas J.
The purpose of this study is to evaluate potential changes in the length of product life cycles in the US seed corn industry. We use the observed survival time on the market for hybrids sold during 1997-2009 to conduct a survival analysis. Our empirical results show that the expected lifetimes for corn hybrids with single biotech traits are 5-15% longer than for hybrids with multiple (stacked) traits, and the expected lifetimes for conventional corn are 13-17% longer than stacked hybrids. Also, the product life cycles for all types of hybrids have decreased over the past twelve years (especially after 2004), but the rate of decline is roughly similar across hybrid types. Based on this evidence, we conclude that the shorter product life cycles are closely...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Accelerated failure time; Biotechnology; Product life cycle; Survival analysis; Productivity Analysis; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93557

What We Know About Uninsured Motorists and How Well We Know What We Know
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Khazzoom,   J. Daniel.
The problem posed by the uninsured motorist is of concern to the general public, policyholders, insurance companies, insurance regulators, and legislators. What is striking, however, is the fragmentary nature of the information that is available and the fact that it is scattered over so many sources. Even more striking is the fact that those sources often provide conflicting estimates, and the methods used in deriving those estimates are either never spelled out or, if they are, their reliability is unknown. In view of the general concern with the problem of uninsured motorists, this paper attempts to present an overview of what we know about the uninsured motorists and how well we know what we know through the following measures: clarifying the subtleties...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Converting fixed to variable cost; Efficient pricing of auto insurance; Environmental benefit of Pay-at-the-Pump; Uninsured motorists/vehicles; Universal auto insurance; Pay-at-the-Pump insurance; Risk and Uncertainty; K4; L9; Q2; R4.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10533

Milk Farmers' Risk Attitudes: Influence of the Dairy Processing Company
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Belhenniche,   Geoffroy; Duvaleix-Treguer,   Sabine; Cordier,   Jean.
European market deregulation is destabilizing the economic environment of French farmers leading to an increase in market risks. In the dairy sector, the 2003 CAP reform has lead to major changes (removal of export subsidies and increase in the European milk quota). The dairy supply chain is now coping with higher production and price risks. The dairy supply chain is thinking of new management tools in order to both maintain stability in dairy farm income and secure supply to industrial facilities. One solution may be to strengthen marketing contracts. In this perspective, the knowledge of dairy farmers' risk attitudes is necessary. The goal of this paper is to provide empirical insight into: dairy farmers‘ perceptions of risk and risk management, and the...
Tipo: Book
Palavras-chave: Market Risk; Farmers' risk perceptions; Expected utility framework; Risk preference elicitation; Dairy Sector; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58711

Analysis of Factors Affecting on Risk Management of Wheat Production Among Wheat Farmers (Razavieh Region, Khorasan-E-Razavi Province, Iran)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sookhtanlo,   Mojtaba; Sarani,   Valiollah.
The main purpose of this study was to analyze the Factors Affecting on risk management in wheat production among farmers of Razavieh region (Khorasan-E-Razavi province, Iran). Statistical population of the study was 1520 farmers that they had water cultivation. By using of stratified proportional random sampling 156 respondents were selected from 8 villages. For the calculation of the risk-aversion coefficient degree among farmers, the Safety First Rule model was used. The findings revealed that the dominant respondents (65%) were risk-averse. The results of exploratory factorial analysis showed that five factors determined about 74.267 % from total variance for wheat farmers' risk management that consist of: economy &amp; marketing management factor,...
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Wheat farmers; Risk-aversion; Risk management; Drought; Agricultural extension; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; GA; IN.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120238

Risk and Contract Relationships
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Freier,   Axel E.; Kuhl,   Rainer.
The current structure of the German agri-food-sector is deduced from an increasing (international) competition and its division into small and medium business units particularly on the producers’ side. The roots of this development lie in a more a hundred year’s history of a productive branch that was intensively shaped by co-operatives. Nowadays this cooperative structure competes with networks and capital market-oriented firms that raise the question of the today’s role of cooperatives (see Kühl/ Hanf, 2004) In the following sections different approaches evaluating possible strategic paths of the actors within the production chain in the agri-food-sector will be presented. As a consequence risk issues agricultural economists have to address will be...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59182

ELLIPTICAL SYMMETRY, EXPECTED UTILITY, AND MEAN-VARIANCE ANALYSIS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nelson,   Carl H.; Ndjeunga,   Jupiter.
Mean-variance analysis in the form of risk programming has a long, productive history in agricultural economics research.  And risk programming continues to be used despite well known theoretical results that choices based on mean-variance analysis are not consistent with choices based on expected utility maximization.  This paper demonstrates that the multivariate distribution of returns used in risk programming must be elliptically symmetric in order for mean-variance analysis to be consistent with expected utility choices.  Then a statistical test for elliptical symmetry is developed and demonstrated.  This test enables researchers to determine when data will produce significant differences between risk programming choices and expected utility choices.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1997
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14795

USE OF PROBABILISTIC CASH FLOWS IN ANALYZING INVESTMENTS UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Richardson,   James W.; Mapp,   Harry P., Jr.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1976
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29759

Price Asymmetric Relationships in Commodity and Energy Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wixson,   Sarah E.; Katchova,   Ani L.
Recent increases in the price of crude oil have led to a rise in the prominence of corn-based ethanol as an alternative source of energy. As a result linkages have been established between commodity and energy prices. The aim of this study is to determine if soybeans, corn, wheat, oil, and ethanol adjust their prices  asymmetrically depending on whether their actual price is over or under-predicted with respect to one another. This study’s goal of determining if asymmetric price relationships exist is accomplished by using monthly time series price data incorporated into a distributed lag error correction model distinguishing between positive and negative price difference and positive and negative values of the error correction terms. The primary results...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Commodity prices; Energy prices; Price asymmetry; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122553

Performance Pricing of Farm Loans Under Risk: Methods and Implementation
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pederson,   Glenn D.; Duncan,   Douglas G.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1983
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23410

WHAT KIND OF CROP INSURANCE FOR RUSSIA?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wildermuth,   Andreas.
The paper starts with an analysis of the decline of Russian state-subsidised all-risk crop insurance during the transition period, describes the reorganisation of Russian crop insurance started in 1997 and 1998, and compares the Russian experience with the Czech Republic’s strictly commercial approach to crop insurance reform. A discussion of the pros and cons of multiple-peril/all-risk crop insurance yields the result that there is no allocative justification for subsidised all-risk and multipleperil crop insurance. The subsequent discussion of alternative approaches to the design of crop insurance vindicates the Czech approach in so far as coverage is restricted to a limited number of perils. But this does not necessarily mean that the government should...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14883

Controlling Urban Air Pollution Caused by Households: Uncertainty, Prices, and Income
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chavez,   Carlos A.; Stranlund,   John K.; Gomez,   Walter.
We examine the control of air pollution caused by households burning wood for heating and cooking in the developing world.  Since the problem is one of controlling emissions from nonpoint sources, regulations are likely to be directed at household choices of wood consumption and combustion technologies. Moreover, these choices are subtractions from, or contributions to, the pure public good of air quality. Consequently, the efficient policy design is not independent of the distribution of household income. Since it is unrealistic to assume that environmental authorities can make lump sum income transfers part of control policies, efficient control of air pollution caused by wood consumption entails a higher tax on wood consumption and a higher subsidy for...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Efficiency; Urban air pollution; Nonpoint pollution; Environmental policy; Uncertainty; Environmental Economics and Policy; Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; L51; H23; Q28.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93964

Land Retirement Program Design and Empirical Assessments In the Presence of Crop Insurance Subsidies
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hennessy,   David A.; Miao,   Ruiqing; Feng,   Hongli.
The U.S. Federal Government implements environmental, biofuels and crop insurance programs that influence land use. They are not well-integrated in that cost savings from crop insurance subsidies are not acknowledged when screening land for retirement or when calculating the cost of land retirement programs. We identify and evaluate an optimal benefit index for enrollment in a land retirement program that includes a sub-index to rank land according to insurance subsidy savings. All else equal, land ranked higher in the Lorenz stochastic order should be retired first. Empirical analysis based on field level data will be provided.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agro-environmental policy; Budget; Conservation reserve program; Crop failure; Environmental benefit index; Lorenz order; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty; Q18; Q28.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104002

ZUR QUANTIFIZIERUNG DES BASISRISIKOS VON WETTERDERIVATEN
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Musshoff,   Oliver; Odening,   Martin; Xu,   Wei.
Es ist seit langem bekannt, dass das Wetter den Hauptunsicherheitsfaktor in der pflanzlichen Produktion darstellt. Seit einiger Zeit wird der Einsatz von Wetterderivaten zur Absicherung gegen wetterbedingte Ertragsschwankungen diskutiert. In diesem Beitrag wird am Beispiel ei-nes getreideproduzierenden Betriebes in Brandenburg unter Verwendung von realen Ertrags- und Wetterdaten mit Hilfe einer stochastischen Simulation die risikomindernde Wirkung quan-tifiziert, die durch den Einsatz von Niederschlagsoptionen erzielt werden kann. Dabei wird die Hedging-Effektivität durch das Kontraktdesign (Index, Strike-Preis, Tick-Size) gesteuert. Das Basisrisiko der Produktion und das geografische Basisrisiko verbleiben jedoch in jedem Fall beim Landwirt. Ziel ist es,...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14947

Ex-ante evaluation of weather-based index insurance and area-yield insurance for reducing crop yield risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bokusheva,   Raushan; Breustedt,   Gunnar; Heidelbach,   Olaf.
The study introduces an ex-ante evaluation concept into the analysis of weather-based index insurance effectiveness. We conduct our ex ante analysis by distinguishing between two consecutive periods: the first period is used for determining insurance parameters and optimal number of insurance contracts for an arable farmer; and the subsequent one is considered for the evaluation of the risk reduction due to the insurance contract defined in the first period. The study also employs the common ex-post approach by specifying and evaluating insurance contracts by means of the same period. We compare the empirical results obtained from these alternative evaluation approaches and thus investigate the ability to forecast empirically insurance schemes risk...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Ex-ante analysis; Kazakhstan weather-based index insurance; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9250

Analyzing Farmer Participation Intentions and Enrollment Rates for the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) Program
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mitchell,   Paul D.; Rejesus,   Roderick M.; Coble,   Keith H.; Knight,   Thomas O.
The 2008 Farm Bill created the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program as a new commodity support program. We analyze actual county-level ACRE enrollment rates and a mail survey of farmers just before the ACRE sign-up deadline in Mississippi, North Carolina, Texas and Wisconsin. As discussions begin regarding the next Farm Bill, an understanding of the factors affecting ACRE participation can provide guidance as program changes are discussed. Our empirical analysis of the survey suggest that initial farmer plans to switch to ACRE in 2009 were driven by producer perceptions of whether or not ACRE would pay more than existing programs and whether or not it would provide more risk protection. On the other hand, planning to stay with existing programs in...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116705

AN ANALYSIS OF WILLINGNESS-TO-PAY FOR CROP INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fraser,   Rob W.
In this paper a method for estimating a producer's willingness-to-pay for crop insurance is presented. The method includes formulae to capture the impact of crop insurance on the producer's expected income and variance of income. These impacts are evaluated in the context of a model of producer welfare which features both price and yield uncertainty, as well as risk aversion on the part of the producer. The method is applied to the Australian wheat industry and estimates of willingness-to-pay are shown to be relatively sensitive to the levels of coverage and yield variability.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1992
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22476

Value Sharing and Food System Dynamics for Milk, Tomato, and Cereals Food Chains
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bertazzoli,   Aldo; Ghelfi,   Rino; Rivaroli,   Sergio; Samoggia,   Antonella.
The aim of the paper is to analyse value sharing and food system dynamics of milk, tomato, and cereals food chains, so to explore the agro‐food enterprises capacity to be competitive and sustainable. The paper is based on the functionalist approach of Malassis and the notion of the system of the General Systems Theory. The methodology is aimed at creating a consolidated financial statement for each food chain so to re‐create the chain value and identify how this is shared among the different food chain stages. The analysis is carried out on primary and secondary data: around 2400 financial statements concerning 480 enterprises from 2003 to 2007 and stakeholders’ interviews. Results show that value is usually created in the processing and distribution...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Food chain; Value system; Economic performance; Potato; Fruit; Cheese.; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Industrial Organization; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101285

Heterogeneous Technologies as an Answer to Market and Price Risk: The Case of Kosovo
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sauer,   Johannes; Davidova,   Sophia; Gorton,   Matthew.
This paper empirically measures the prevalence of heterogeneous technologies in a sample of small-scale agricultural producers as an answer to structural conditions and market risks. Such risks are closely linked to the effects of land fragmentation and the degree of market integration. We use the empirical case of Kosovo as a transition country to investigate the efficiency effects of land fragmentation by simultaneously considering the effects of market integration. Different to previous studies, we assume that land fragmentation and market integration lead to the prevalence of heterogeneous technologies allowing farm households to respond more efficiently to exogenous price and policy shocks given their fragmentation and subsistence situation. The...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122509

The future of the European Common Agricultural Policy : a new philosopy ?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Boussard,   Jean-Marc.
While the recent commodity price crisis brings questions regarding the general developement path of the CAP since 1992, this paper envisages returning to Rooseveltian recipes, after modernization.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Common Agricultural policy; Price volatility; State intervention; Market failure; Supply management.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Production Economics; Public Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; H1; Q1; E3.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44423

A STUDY OF THE CAUSES LEADING TO THE LIQUIDATION OF AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kotorman,   Annamaria.
The viability of agricultural enterprises is of paramount importance. Their liquidation has harmful effects on broad strata of society. The aim of my research is therefore to analyze the leading causes of liquidation of agricultural enterprises. The research was led on 17 agricultural enterprises. This may help in the prevention and treatment of their insolvency. The research results show that a long-term agricultural production is not sustainable with a low equity capital. For the long-term maintenance it is necessary that the investors establish the enterprise with a capital according to the type of the production. The loan can not replace the entrepreneurs own resources, it is only complementary to it. The owners of agricultural businesses should strive...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural enterprises; Liquidation; Capital lost; Risk; Crisis management; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53580

Assessing the economic costs of an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gohin,   Alexandre; Rault,   Arnaud.
Epizootic outbreaks such as Foot and Mouth Disease are of great concern for agriculture. In this paper, we quantify the potential dynamic impacts of such a disease on Brittany, a French region with a strong livestock sector. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with rational expectations that allows us to measure the impacts of culling infected animals and restraining movements of live animals on the livestock sectors and downstream food industries. Our results show that economic losses are spread over many periods even with a one-time shock. The impacts on the primary sectors and downstream food sectors do not move in parallel. The food industries suffer most in the first period while the negative impacts on agriculture are mostly...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Dynamics; CGE; Animal disease; Catastrophic event; Risk and Uncertainty; Q11; Q18.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122438

THE IMPACT OF RISK ON THE INEQUALITY: EVIDENCES FROM THE IRISH AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vollenweider,   Xavier; Di Falco,   Salvatore; O'Donoghue,   Cathal.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115553

Cities versus agriculture: Revisiting intersectoral water transfers, potential gains and conflicts
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Molle,   Francois; Berkoff,   Jeremy.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Water scarcity; Water demand; Water transfer; Water use; Water supply; Water allocation; Environmental effects; Water market; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91817

Optimal Length of Moving Average to Forecast Futures Basis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hatchett,   Robert B.; Brorsen,   B. Wade; Anderson,   Kim B.
Futures prices when combined with a basis forecast provide a reliable way to forecast cash prices. The most popular method of forecasting basis is historical moving averages. Given the recent failure of longer moving averages proposed by previous studies, this research reassesses past recommendations about the best length of moving average to use in forecasting basis. This research compares practical preharvest and storage period basis forecasts for hard wheat, soft wheat, corn and soybeans to identify the optimal amount of historical information to include in moving average forecasts. Only with preharvest hard wheat forecasts are the best moving averages longer than 3 years. The differences in forecast accuracy among the different moving averages are...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Basis forecast; Grain; Law of One Price; Moving averages; Structural change; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53048

IDENTIFYING FARMER CHARACTERISTICS RELATED TO CROP INSURANCE PURCHASE DECISIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Black,   Dawn L.; Dorfman,   Jeffrey H.
Crop insurance is an area of federal agricultural policy that has been a source of continual calls for reform and improvement, yet there are a limited number of empirical studies examining farmers' insurance purchase decisions.  As far as we are aware, this study is the first to utilize farm level data from the Southeastern U.S.  We look at the farmer's decision to purchase or not purchase crop insurance using data from Georgia cotton and peanut farmers.  We find that farmers appear to do a good job of weighing the benefits of crop insurance against alternative forms of self-insuring and risk-diversification.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21831

Commodity Options: A New Market Risk Management Tool for Agriculture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ikerd,   John E.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1985
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59831

Analysis of Risk Management Practices of Specialty Crop Producers in New York: Implications for Crop Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: White,   Gerald B.; Uva,   Wen-fei L.; Cheng,   Mei-luan.
Tipo: Technical Report
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122121

Some Issues in Dealing with Risk in Agriculture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hardaker,   J. Brian.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12912

THE ROLE OF RESEARCH IN PRODUCER RISK MANAGEMENT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Coble,   Keith H.; Barnett,   Barry J.
Agricultural economists have for many decades concerned ourselves with gaining an understanding of individual behavior when confronted with risk, and developing tools to address decision-making under risk.  This area of research has recently gained renewed attention for a variety of reasons.  This paper attempts to provide a review of the current status of risk related research, to assess areas where we have made significant progress, and also areas where expected benefits of future work are greatest.   Theoretical advancements have contributed to our understanding of portfolio trade-offs, optimal input and output decisions, and the use of instruments such as futures and insurance.  Advances in the ability to quantify risk with more robust methodologies...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk; Insurance; Research; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15803

BASIS RISK AND HEDGING STRATEGIES FOR AUSTRALIAN WHEAT EXPORTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bond,   Gary E.; Thompson,   Stanley R.; Geldard,   Jane M.
Basis risk can play a significant role in the determination of effective hedging strategies. In this paper a portfolio framework is developed to examine the effect of basis risk on hedging strategies for Australian wheat exports. Monthly data for the period 1977 to 1984 were used to implement the analytical framework. While the traditional definition of hedging implies a hedge ratio of unity, the results of this research show that the average ratio of optimal hedge to stockholding is well below unity. Evolving market conditions can also cause the optimal hedge ratio to vary substantially over time.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1985
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22331

Applications of Decision Theory and the Measurement of Attitudes Towards Risk in Farm Management Research in Industrialized and Third World Settings
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fleisher,   Beverly; Robison,   Lindon J.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Downloads June 2008 - June 2009: 8.
Ano: 1985
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54065

Federal Crop and Crop Revenue Insurance Programs: Group Risk Plan (GRP) Contracts
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Smith,   Vincent H.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29187

Do I Need Crop Insurance? Self-Evaluation Crop Insurance as a Risk Management Tool in New York State
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Richards,   Steven T.
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122046

Animal Disease Related Pre-event Investment and Post-event Compensation: A Multi-agent Problem
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Jin,   Yanhong H.; McCarl,   Bruce A.
We employ a game-theoretic principal agent framework to analyze the individual farmer and governmental behavior pre- and post-animal disease outbreak. We examine the gap between the privately optimal and socially optimal levels of ex ante biosecurity investment and then investigate how a well-designed differentiated compensation scheme can close this gap. Our results also show that the privately optimal investment is generally lower than the first best socially optimal level, and a well-designed differentiated compensation scheme conditional on ex ante biosecurity investment can induce private preventive investment at least greater than the second best socially optimal level when the government face constraints, or even increase approaching the first best...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21216

Age, Health, and the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions: A Contingent Valuation Survey of Ontario Residents
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Krupnick,   Alan J.; Alberini,   Anna; Cropper,   Maureen L.; Simon,   Nathalie B.; O'Brien,   Bernie; Goeree,   Ron; Heintzelman,   Martin.
Much of the justification for environmental rulemaking rests on estimates of the benefits to society of reduced mortality rates. This research aims to fill gaps in the literature that estimates the value of a statistical life (VSL) by designing and implementing a contingent valuation study for persons 40 to 75 years of age, and eliciting WTP for reductions in current and future risks of death. Targeting this age range also allows us to examine the impact of age on WTP and, by asking respondents to complete a detailed health questionnaire, to examine the impact of health status on WTP. This survey was self-administered by computer to 930 persons in Hamilton, Ontario, in 1999. The survey uses audio and visual aids to communicate baseline risks of death and...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Mortality risk valuation; Canada; Contingent valuation; Age; Health status; Risk and Uncertainty; I1; Q20; Q26.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10888

The Quality of Stakeholder-Based Decisions: Lessons from the Case Study Record
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Beierle,   Thomas C.
The increased use of stakeholder processes in environmental decision-making has raised concerns that the inherently "political" nature of such processes may sacrifice substantive quality for political expediency. In particular, there is concern that good science will not be used adequately in stakeholder processes nor be reflected in their decision outcomes. This paper looks to the case study record to examine the quality of the outcomes of stakeholder efforts and the scientific and technical resources stakeholders use. The data for the analysis come from a "case survey," in which researchers coded information on over 100 attributes of 239 published case studies of stakeholder involvement in environmental decision-making. These cases reflect a diversity of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Public participation; Stakeholder; Science; Alternative dispute resolution; Consensus building; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10686

The FAPRI Baseline Model of the Federal Crop Insurance Program
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hart,   Chad E.; Smith,   Darnell B.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18641

Alternative Livestock/Dryland Forage Systems in the Texas Panhandle
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lust,   David G.; Almas,   Lal K.; Colette,   W. Arden; Schlater,   Leah M.
Optimization models are developed to determine grazing alternatives for individual dryland producers. Models alternatives include wheat, sorghum-sudan, summer perennial grass, and native range. Precipitation risk and price risk are estimated for seasonal production alternatives, and options that reduce both price risk and production risk are examined.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Relative Risk; Ogallala Aquifer; Crop-Livestock Systems; Wheat; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56533

AN EVALUATION OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY RESEARCH IN RELATION TO CROP VARIETAL DEVELOPMENT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Amir,   Pervaiz.
Agriculture development efforts in the past have focused heavily on increasing aggregate output in less developed countries (LDC).  In the last 2-3 decades, technology served as a key policy instrument used by developed countries to aid the less developed ones.  However, such a policy had led to the neglect of certain farming groups, particularly small farmers.  Recent trends in agriculture development tend to pay special attention to the needs of small farmers.  It is the small farmers who form the backbone of agriculture in many LDC's.  As their development receives priority, so does the need to gain a better understanding of their farming needs.  Small farmer response to technology has been unevenly distributed.  This has not only varied amongst the...
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1982
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11185

YIELD RESPONSE AND PRODUCTION RISK: AN ANALYSIS OF INTEGRATED PEST MANAGEMENT IN COTTON
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hurd,   Brian H.
Production uncertainty is commonly believed to be an impediment to the adoption of less pesticide-intensive methods in agriculture such as integrated pest management (IPM).  To investigate the effects of pest control inputs on yields and yield variability, data from a cross-section of San Joaquin Valley cotton producers were analyzed in a heteroskedastic production model.  The results suggest that yields are increasing with soil quality, crop rotation, frequency of field monitoring, and the use of independent pest control advisors.  Yield variability was not found to be significantly affected by production inputs, including pesticides and IPM practices with the exception of frequent contact with extension farm advisors which was found to contribute to...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1994
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30759

Crop insurance in transition: A qualitative and quantitative assessment of insurance products (Preliminary results)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bokusheva,   Raushan.
This discussion paper considers insurance as a possible instrument of farm income stabilization and compares several crop insurance products with respect to their applicability in a transition economy using the case of Kazakhstan. The analysis is based on a qualitative evaluation as well a quantitative assessment of selected insurance products. The qualitative analysis reviews the available literature on the topic. The quantitative assessment completes the comparison introducing the findings of a numerical analysis of farm and weather data.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14869

Risk Aversion in Low Income Countries Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Yesuf,   Mahmud; Bluffstone,   Randall.
Production systems in low-income developing countries are generally poorly diversified, focusing on rainfed staple crop production and raising livestock. These activities are inherently risky and investment and production decisions by farm households are therefore made within environments that are affected by risk. Because of poorly developed or absent credit and insurance markets it is difficult to pass any of these risks to a third party. As a result, it is often found that even when the expected net return is high, households are reluctant to adopt new agricultural technologies when they involve risk. Better understanding risk behavior will be essential for identifying appropriate farm-level strategies for adaptation to climate change by low-income...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Ethiopian farm households; Experimental studies; Loss aversion; Risk aversion; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42398

Are The Poverty Effects of Trade Policies Invisible?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Verma,   Monika; Valenzuela,   Ernesto; Hertel,   Thomas W.
With the advent of the WTO’s Doha Development Agenda, as well as the Millennium Development Goals aiming to reduce poverty by 50 percent by 2015, poverty impacts of trade reforms have attracted increasing attention. This has been particularly true of agricultural trade reform due to the importance of food in the diets of the poor, relatively higher protection in agriculture, as well as the heavy concentration of global poverty in rural areas where agriculture is the main source of income. Yet some in this debate have argued that, given the extreme volatility in agricultural commodity markets, the additional price and poverty impacts due to trade liberalization might well be undetectable. This paper formally tests this “invisibility hypothesis” via...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Trade policy reform; Agricultural trade; Computable general equilibrium; Developing countries; Poverty headcount; Volatility; Stochastic simulation; Non-parametric hypothesis testing; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; C68; F17; I32; Q17; R20.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61793

BREAKING THE BOOM AND BUST: EXPLORING THIRTY YEARS OF DIVERSIFICATION IN WESTERN CANADA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chambers,   Edward J.; Ryan,   Chris.
The topic of diversification has been studied extensively by academics and policy makers. The theory of diversification, dating back to the 1930s and the Great Depression, suggests that increasing the variety of industries in a region spreads the risk and reduces the likelihood that all industries will suffer a downturn at the same time. This serves to mitigate the boom and bust pattern often experienced by a heavy reliance on a limited number of industries, which in three of the four western provinces, means natural resource-based industries. This study examines diversification progress in the four western provinces over the last 30 years. The time span covers the greatest progress in trade liberalization policy in the nation’s history, and the evidence...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Alberta; Western Canada; Diversification; "boom and bust"; Shift-share; Portfolio choice; Employment; Sector shift; Development; Policy; Policies; Economic history; History; Retrospective; Location quotients; Industrial Organization; Labor and Human Capital; Political Economy; Public Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60429

Influence of the Premium Subsidy on Farmers' Crop Insurance Coverage Decisions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Babcock,   Bruce A.; Hart,   Chad E.
The Agricultural Risk Protection Act greatly increased the expected marginal net benefit of farmers buying high-coverage crop insurance policies by coupling premium subsidies to coverage level. This policy change, combined with cross-sectional variations in expected marginal net benefits of high-coverage policies, is used to estimate the role that premium subsidies play in farmers' crop insurance decisions. We use county data for corn, soybeans, and wheat to estimate regression equations that are then used to obtain insight into two policy scenarios. We first estimate that eventual adoption of actuarially fair incremental premiums, combined with current coupled subsidies, would increase farmers' purchase of high-coverage policies by almost 400 percent...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Risk Protection Act; Crop insurance; Premium subsidies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18494

Portfolio Allocation and Alternative Structures of the Standard Reinsurance Agreement
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vedenov,   Dmitry V.; Miranda,   Mario J.; Dismukes,   Robert; Glauber,   Joseph W.
This paper analyzes effects of hypothetical changes in the Standard Reinsurance Agreement (SRA) on rates of return of private insurance companies participating in delivery of crop insurance. A computer simulation program is used to model companies'’ returns under the current and alternative SRA structures. A simple heuristic rule is used in order to simulate companies' behavior under counterfactual assumptions about the SRA structures.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20222

Volatility in US and Italian agricultural markets, interactions and policy evaluation
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rosa,   Franco; Vasciaveo,   Michela.
The aim of this paper is to analyse the volatility and interactions among prices of agricultural commodities in Italy and US using the time series analysis. The cross market interactions are examined to test the hypothesis that the increased volatility of agricultural prices has been caused by crude oil price, then the cointegration and causality among different markets is also tested. For this analysis the spot prices of wheat, corn, soybeans in US and Italy and crude oil prices spanning from 2002 to 2010 are used. The results suggest the following considerations: i) the existence of causality in US markets with exogeneity of the oil on the US agricultural commodities, ii) evidence of cointegration between US and Italian commodities, suggesting a...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Time series analysis; Agricultural commodity prices; Linear and nonlinear Granger causality; Market integration; Risk and Uncertainty; C14; C19; Q13.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122530

A Neglected Interdependency in Liability Theory
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dharmapala,   Dhammika; Hoffmann,   Sandra A.; Schwartz,   Warren.
The standard economic model of bilateral precaution concludes that (in the absence of uncertainty, misperception, or error) all negligence-based liability rules induce socially optimal behavior by both injurers and victims. This paper generalizes the standard model to consider situations in which one party's precaution affects not only expected accident loss, but also directly affects the other party's effort or cost of taking precaution. If the injurer's care affects the victim's precaution costs (but not vice versa), most of the standard results continue to hold (except for strict liability with a defense of contributory negligence). If the victims precaution affects the injurers costs of care (but not vice versa), only strict liability with a defense of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Law and economics; Tort laws; Risk and Uncertainty; K13; K00.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10626

Risks Perceptions and Risk Management Instruments in the European Union: do farmers have a clear idea of what they need?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Morales,   C.; Garrido,   Alberto; Palinkas,   Peter; Szekely,   Csaba.
This paper explores and analyzes farmers’ risk perceptions, risk management instruments’ demand and usage in five Member States (Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Germany and Poland). A survey completed by 1047 representative farmers of these EU Member Status collected information that allowed us to set apart two focus areas: the first looks at the declared importance of several sources of farms’ risk and income instability, and at the actual means that farmers pursue to manage and face them. The second area focuses on the demand for risk management instruments. The paper’s objective is to determine the factors that explain farmers’ responses in the first area, and based on those factors, analyse the demands for two instruments (insurance, and future &amp;...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk; Risk management; Farmer’s perception.; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43956

CAN REVENUE INSURANCE SUBSTITUTE FOR PRICE AND YIELD RISK MANAGEMENT INSTRUMENTS?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hanson,   Steven D.; Black,   J. Roy; Wang,   H. Holly.
This is a revised copy of Staff Paper 2000-48.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/11655

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE PROPOSED NEW RISK MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Martin,   Larry J.; Mussell,   Al; Andison,   Nancy Brown; Stoddart,   Harry; Davenport,   Lloyd.
The purpose of this assessment as outlined in the terms of reference is: "To obtain an assessment by an independent third party of the expected performance of the proposed new business risk management program's proposed New NISA and production insurance relative to the current set of risk management programming, including NISA, CFIP, crop insurance and companion programs."  Within this context, the specific mandate and scope is to assess "the extent to which the current and proposed programs meet the objectives set out by Agriculture Ministers for business risk management programming, as follows: · to ensure programs are responsive to demand and         that government dollars are directed to areas of          need with respect to income stabilization,...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18112

REVENUE INSURANCE FOR GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA PEACHES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Miller,   Stephen E.; Kahl,   Kandice H.; Rathwell,   P. James.
We estimate actuarially fair premium rates for yield and revenue insurance for Georgia and South Carolina peaches. The premium rates for both products decrease at a decreasing rate as the mean farm-level yield increases. In general, the premium rate for revenue insurance exceeds the premium rate for yield insurance for a given coverage level and expected yield. Although the revenue and yield insurance rates differ in a statistical sense, they do not appear to differ in an economic sense except at high coverage levels for growers with very high yields.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Peaches; Revenue insurance; Yield insurance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15391

New Approaches to Crop Yield Insurance in Developing Countries
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Skees,   Jerry R.; Hazell,   Peter B.R.; Miranda,   Mario J.
Natural disasters can be extremely disruptive to farmers and to others whose incomes depend on a successful crop. Society can gain from more efficient sharing of crop and natural disaster risks. However, the costs associated with traditional agricultural risk programs have historically exceeded the gains from improved risk sharing. This paper explores government intervention in agricultural risk markets and discusses new approaches to risk sharing with limited government involvement. In particular, we build the case for introducing negotiable state-contingent contracts settled on area crop yield estimates or locally appropriate weather indices. These instruments could replace traditional crop insurance at a lower cost to government while meeting the risk...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42827

Risk, Research, and Returns: Valuation of the Potential of Improved Citrus Cultivars
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Brummett,   Robert G.; Richardson,   James W.
Replaced with revised version of paper 02/04/08.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6759

Identifying ENSO Phase Impacts on Area Yield Insurance Rates: An Application of Non-Parametric Analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nadolnyak,   Denis A.; Novak,   James L.; Paz,   Joel O.
The paper reports results of non-parametric analysis of peanut, corn, and cotton yield distributions by the ElNino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases in the Southeastern U.S. For validation purposes, the historical yield data is complemented by a set of simulated peanut yields generated using daily weather data. The hypothesis, justified by the observed South-Eastern climate differences and research on ENSO cycles and planting dates, is that different climate conditions during ENSO cycles translate into different yield distributions and, therefore, insurance premiums (loss to coverage ratios).  Kernel density estimates of historical county yield data show consistent patterns in the actuarially fair rate schedules grouped by ENSO phases and geographical...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty; Q140; C220; G220.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9718

AN ECONOMIC TOOL FOR EVALUATING DISEASE MANAGEMENT IN THE JARRAH FORESTS OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dole,   David D.; Brennan,   Paul.
A pathogenic, soil-borne fungus has been gradually spreading through the jarrah forest of Western Australia for most of this century. On some sites this fungus can cause almost total forest destruction. Infection is incurable and the effects are irreversible. This paper develops a means for evaluating disease control measures and identifying the optimal level of protection. Standard protection measures are warranted for high and moderate impact sites, over a wide range of risks. Increased expenditure on forest protection is warranted for high and moderate impact sites at especially high risk.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1996
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22369

Information Content in Deferred Futures Prices: Live Cattle and Hogs
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sanders,   Dwight R.; Garcia,   Philip; Manfredo,   Mark R.
The informational content in live cattle and hog deferred futures prices is assessed using a direct test of incremental forecast ability for two- to twelve-month horizons. For 1976-2007, the results indicate that hog futures prices add incremental information at all horizons, but unique information in live cattle prices declines quickly beyond the eight-month horizon with no incremental information at the twelve-month horizon. The contrast in performance is likely attributable to differences in the quality of public information and the nature of the production process.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Forecast evaluation; Forecast information; Futures markets; Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/36709

The Value of Private Risk Versus the Value of Public Risk: An Experimental Analysis of the Johannesson et al. Conjecture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Messer,   Kent D.; Poe,   Gregory L.; Schulze,   William D.
In 1996 Johannesson et al. published a paper in this journal entitled “The Value of Private Safety versus the Value of Public Safety.” Based on preliminary evidence from a hypothetical contingent valuation study, these authors argue that consumers behave as “pure altruists” and reject the notion of paternalistic preferences for safety in a coercive tax setting. These pure altruists consider the cost of a program that might be imposed on other voters when they decide whether to vote for or against public safety programs. The authors conclude that further empirical research in this area is warranted. This paper presents a set of laboratory economics experiments to test Johannesson et al.’s conjecture under controlled conditions in which participants face an...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Altruism; Risk; Voting; Public goods; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; D81; D64; H41; C91; C92; D72.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51141

Supply Chain and Network Performance: Metrics for Profitability, Productivity, and Efficiency
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Weaver,   Robert D.
The architecture of the firm involves determination of a boundary that encompasses the functions managed by the firm. The past decade has seen substantial reorganization of firms where vertical or horizontal integration has been unbundled into weaker forms of collaborations including value chains and networks. This observation has forced a re-conceptualization of the boundaries of the firm to incorporate such collaborations. These collaborations are virtual and highly dynamic. They emerge and persist when two conditions are met. First, they must enable generation of greater value than might be attained through independent operation and anonymous transactions through markets. Second, the resulting growth must be shared with members in a way that retains...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Networks; Collaboration; Metrics; Productivity; Efficiency; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59183

GM Technology Adoption, Production Risk and On-farm Varietal Diversity
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Krishna,   Vijesh V.; Zilberman,   David; Qaim,   Matin.
This paper examines the impact of transgenic technology adoption on varietal diversity. Transgenic pest-resistant varieties are hypothesized to reduce farmers’ demand for on-farm diversity through an act of substitution, as both serve as production risk reducing instruments. This adverse agro-biodiversity impact might be partially counteracted by an expanding seed sector, supplying a large number of transgenic varieties. The case of Bt cotton in India is taken for empirical illustration. The production function analyses show that both Bt technology and on-farm varietal diversity enhance yield, while reducing the production risk. With few Bt varieties available in the first years, technology adoption entailed a reduction in on-farm varietal diversity. This...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agro-biodiversity; Bt cotton; Production risk; Transgenic technology; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49173

THE NEW CROP INSURANCE REFORMS: WHERE WE'VE BEEN: WHERE WE'RE GOING (PowerPoint Presentation)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ackerman,   Kenneth D.
POWERPOINT PRESENTATION
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33059

Infrequent Shocks and Rating Revenue Insurance: A Contingent Claims Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Richards,   Timothy J.; Manfredo,   Mark R.
Revenue insurance represents an important new risk management tool for agricultural producers. While there are many farm-level products, Group Risk Income Protection (GRIP) is an area-based alternative. Insurers set premium rates for GRIP on the assumption of a continuous revenue distribution, but discrete events may cause the actual value of insurance to differ by a significant amount. This study develops a contingent claims approach to determining the error inherent in ignoring these infrequent events in rating GRIP insurance. An empirical example from the California grape industry demonstrates the significance of this error and suggests an alternative method of determining revenue insurance premiums.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Black-Scholes; Contingent claim; Grapes; Insurance; Jump-diffusion; Option pricing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31094

DUAL APPROACHES TO THE ANALYSIS OF RISK AVERSION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chambers,   Robert G.; Quiggin,   John C.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28606

Econometric models of discrete/continuous supply decisions under uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hanemann,   W. Michael.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1982
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6288

Scope and Sustainability of Cooperation in Transboundary Water Sharing of the Volta River
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bhaduri,   Anik; Perez,   Nicostrato D.; Liebe,   Jens.
The paper explores the scope and sustainability of a self-enforcing cooperative agreement in the framework of a game theoretic model, where the upstream and downstream country, Burkina Faso and Ghana respectively in the Volta River Basin, bargain over the level of water abstraction in the upstream. In the model we consider the case where the downstream country, Ghana, offers a discounted price for energy export to the upstream country, Burkina Faso, to restrict its water abstraction rate in the upstream. The paper examines the benefits and sustainability of such self-enforcing cooperative arrangements between Ghana and Burkina Faso given stochastic uncertainty in the river flow. The findings of the paper suggest that at the present condition, the marginal...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Bargaining; Cooperation; Transboundary; Uncertainty; Volta River Basin; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43324

Modeling Temperature Dynamics for Aquaculture Index Insurance In Taiwan: A Nonlinear Quantile Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chen,   Shu-Ling.
According to the Taiwan Council of Agriculture, frost was responsible for approximately 30 percent of aquaculture losses in Taiwan during the period 1999-2008.  Farmed milkfish, the most important aquaculture crop in Taiwan, is particularly sensitive to temperature variations, and can experience widespread kills whenever temperatures fall below 14°C for sustained periods of time.  Temperatures below this critical minimum, however, are not uncommon during the January-March winter months.    The purpose of our study is to analyze the possible benefits and the actuarial properties of temperature-based index insurance for the farmed milkfish industry in Kaohsiung County, Taiwan.  Weather-based index insurance has been promoted as a cost-effective means of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Nonlinear quantile; Temperature risk; Weather index insurance; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104229

Whole Farm Modeling of the Effect of Risk on Optimal Tillage and Nitrogen Fertilizer Intensity
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gandorfer,   Markus; Pannell,   David J.; Meyer-Aurich,   Andreas.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Nitrogen; Tillage; Risk; Risk aversion; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61185

Consumption Smoothing? Livestock, Insurance and Drought in Rural Burkina Faso
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kazianga,   Harounan; Udry,   Christopher R.
This paper explores the extent of consumption smoothing between 1981 and 1985 in rural Burkina Faso. In particular, we examine the extent to which livestock, grain storage and interhousehold transfers are used to smooth consumption against income risk. The survey coincided with a period of severe drought, so that the results provide direct evidence on the effectiveness of these various insurance mechanisms when they are the most needed. We find evidence of little consumption smoothing. In particular, there is almost no risk sharing, and households rely almost exclusively on self-insurance in the form of adjustments to grain stocks to smooth out consumption. The outcome, however is far from complete smoothing. Hence the main risk-coping strategies, which...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Livestock; Consumption smoothing; Permanent income hypothesis; Precautionary saving; Risk sharing; Risk and Uncertainty; D91; O16.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28497

Complexity and Obsolete Data Concepts: Canadian Farm Policy, and the Changing Structure of Agriculture
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Freshwater,   David.
Agricultural data systems remain based upon now obsolete concepts. In particular, the "full-time, family farm" is still organizing concepts for much of the farm data system, and for agricultural policies. Yet farming has clearly bifurcated into: a relatively small number of large farms that produce the majority of the food and fiber; and a large number of small part-time farms that depend mainly on off-farm income for household well-being. Both types are family farms, but they are not the family farms of the past. It is broadly recognized that large farms pose complex challenges for data collection and policy. But small farms are also complex. While small farms may not account for much production they are important for land use issues and for maintaining...
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Data concepts; Farm policy; Agricultural policy; Canada; Data collection; Risk; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119473

Agricultural Production Decisions and the Welfare Effects of Changes in the Level and Timing of Snowmelt in the Western U.S.
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cobourn,   Kelly M.; Mooney,   Sian; Megordon,   Brandon.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61783

Determinants of Agricultural Disaster Payments in the Southeastern U.S.: County Level Analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nadolnyak,   Denis A.; Novak,   James L.
Using county level data we study if weather and climate variables or variables used as proxies for rent-seeking behavior determine disaster payment in the Southeast. We do not find evidence of rent-seeking but find that, in addition to weather, long term climate variables affect disaster payments.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6554

Extreme Measures of Agricultural Financial Risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cotter,   John; Dowd,   Kevin; Morgan,   C. Wyn.
This paper is from the Centre for Financial Markets (CFM) Working Paper series at University College Dublin.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Agricultural financial risk; Spectral risk measures; Expected Shortfall; Value at Risk; Extreme Value Theory.; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; E17; G19; N52.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101971

RISK AND MARKET PARTICIPANT BEHAVIOR IN THE U.S. SLAUGHTER-CATTLE MARKET
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Feuz,   Dillon M.; Fausti,   Scott W.; Wagner,   John J.
Incomplete information generates uncertainty for market participants in the slaughter-cattle market. Buyer and seller behavior in the presence of that uncertainty is examined. Statistically significant risk premiums are charged by packers when buying slaughter cattle on either a live- or dressed-weight basis compared to buying on a grade-and-yield basis. Pratt-Arrow risk-aversion coefficients are calculated for buyers and these remain constant over all marketing methods. Sellers market cattle under all three marketing methods, suggesting producers’' attitudes toward risk (risk-aversion coefficients) vary.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1995
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30935

Disaster Planning in the Dairy Industry: Conceptual Issues and a Spatial Modelling Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Keniston,   Maura; Pratt,   James E.; Stephenson,   Mark W.; Novakovic,   Andrew M.
Natural disasters in the u.S. demonstrate the lack of and need for integrated disaster plans for the u.S. dairy industry. It is demonstrated how a spatial model of the Northeast dairy industry can be used to assess and analyze potential impacts of local and regional disasters on market levels in the industry. A hypothetical radioactive release from a nuclear power plant reactor in the Northeast provides an example.
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1992
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121540

PROGRAM AND NONPROGRAM WHEAT ACREAGE RESPONSES TO PRICES AND RISK
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Krause,   Mark A.; Lee,   Jung-Hee; Koo,   Won W.
Wheat acreage responses to expected wheat price and price risk are reversed for program and nonprogram-planted acreage in the northern plains, central plains, southern plains, and U.S. Expected wheat price has a strong negative effect on program-complying wheat acreage. Government support prices have a positive effect on program-complying and program-planted acreage. Price risk has a positive effect on program-complying wheat acreage and a negative effect on nonprogram-planted acreage. Estimated price elasticities are higher than in studies where risk was ignored.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1995
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30930

TRANSFERABLE WATER ENTITLEMENTS WHICH SATISFY HETEROGENEOUS RISK PREFERENCES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Alaouze,   Chris M.
Irrigators in Victoria have a water entitlement which is composed of a highly secure water right and additional water which may be purchased if available. Water entitlements in NSW are based on the irrigated area with the actual volume of water received in any year depending almost entirely on seasonal conditions. Musgrave and Lesueur (1973) argued that these entitlements could be replaced by a portfolio of entitlements, with each type of entitlement in the portfolio guaranteeing a nominated minimum value of water at a different probability. Thus, irrigators could purchase a portfolio of water entitlements which would suit their individual risk preferences. The purpose in this paper is to show how a water authority can construct a portfolio of water...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1991
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22762

Futuros agropecuários em portfólios de máxima utilidade esperada
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Silveira,   Rodrigo Lanna Franco da; Barros,   Geraldo Sant'Ana de Camargo.
This study investigates the composition of maximum expected utility portfolio, considering stocks, bonds, gold, dollar and agricultural futures contract, between August of 1994 and December of 2007. From the optimal combinations of risk-return (calculated by Markowitz algorithm) and the use of a quadratic utility function (with different levels of risk aversion), were obtained portfolios that maximizes expected utility. The commodity futures were not present in the maximum expected utility portfolios for the complete period, 1994-2000. However, with division of sample in two and three periods, the commodity futures were included in these portfolios during the 2000s. Furthermore, in general, with the risk aversion increase, the participation of these papers...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Portfolio; Agricultural futures contract; Utility; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56854

A Theoretical Analysis of Economic Impacts of Export Credit Insurance and Guarantees
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rienstra-Munnicha,   Paul; Turvey,   Calum G.; Koo,   Won W.
This paper developed an economic framework to analyze the economic impacts of an ECP on trade flows within the context of a partial equilibrium approach which assumes that non-payment risks are distinct between selling at home and abroad based on difficulties and expense in recovering non-payments are different in the two markets.  A two-country partial equilibrium trade model is developed to analyze the economic impact of the export credit insurance and/or guarantees on trade flows.  The results also show that to minimize or recover the efficiency loss, an export credit program can be employed to increase the exported quantity and reduce the excessively high equilibrium price as a result of non-payment risk.  The overall net welfare loss of the two...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21391

Identifying Financially Versatile Milk Production Systems
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anderson,   Duncan J.; Jack,   Claire G.; Connolly,   Niamh.
The European dairy industry faces an increasingly uncertain world. There is uncertainty about, for example, subsidy payment levels and compliance conditions, global competition, price variability, consumer demand, carbon footprints, water quality, animal welfare, food safety, and the environment. Farmers can reduce their exposure to these uncertainties by adopting production systems that are financially versatile over a wide range of possible circumstances. In this research project we develop a profit maximizing whole-farm model and employ it to identify financially optimal milk production systems for a typical Northern Ireland farm under varying market, policy and farm family conditions. The systems assessed range from lower yielding New Zealand type...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm modelling; Production systems.; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12 and Q16.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122460

Insurance and Other Strategies for the Management of Farm Risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sprague,   Merritt.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1985
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59808

THE USE OF COST-TRANSFER ANALYSIS TO ESTIMATE THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF A POTENTIAL ZEBRA MUSSEL INFESTATION IN FLORIDA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rossi,   Frederick J.; Adams,   Damian C.; Lee,   Donna J.
Zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) colonization of the eastern United States has resulted in expenditures of tens of millions of dollars spent by consumptive surface water users, in order to mitigate infrastructure impairment caused by this invasive species.  Analogous to benefit-transfer analysis, a "cost-transfer" approach will be used to obtain general estimates of potential mitigation costs of zebra mussels in an area (Florida) that this invasive species has yet to establish itself.  The goal of this research is to provide initial information about this issue to parties interested in, and/or charged with, invasive species management in the state of Florida.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Bio-fouling; Cost-transfer; Economic impacts; Florida surface water users; Monitoring and control; Zebra mussels; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34774

QUANTIFYING AND MANAGING RISK IN AGRICULTURE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Eidman,   Vernon R.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1989
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/13646

What do you think? Participant Survey Results: 2004 K-State Risk &amp; Profit Conference
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Brant,   Molly; Pendell,   Dustin L.; Tonsor,   Glynn T.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117975

Coordination after gains and losses: Is prospect theory’s value function predictive for games?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Schade,   Christian; Schroeder,   Andreas; Krause,   Kai Oliver.
We analyze the effects of prior gain and loss experiences on individuals’ behavior in two coordination games: battle of the sexes and simultaneous market entry. We propose subjectively transformed games that integrate elements of prospect theory, aggregation of prior and subsequent payoffs, and social projection. Mathematical predictions of behavior are derived based on equilibrium selection concepts. Males’ behavior in our experimental studies is largely consistent with our predictions. However, the behavior of many female respondents appears to be rather consistent with interpreting the initial random lottery outcomes used to manipulate prior experiences as a signal for the players’ abilities to compete. This could be related to females’ known uneasiness...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Prospect Game Theory; Prior Outcomes; Coordination; Equilibrium Selection; Economic Experiment; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Financial Economics; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59524

Implications of Neuroscience Developments in Understanding Human Behavior for Teaching Agricultural Economics/Agribusiness
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Schurle,   Bryan W.; Bruce,   Amanda S.; Bruce,   Jared M.; Zereyesus,   Yacob Abrehe.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Neuroscience; Behavioral economics; Teaching; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61289

An Insurance Approach to Risk Management in the Ethanol Industry
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Paulson,   Nicholas D.; Babcock,   Bruce A.; Hart,   Chad E.; Hayes,   Dermot J.
The vast majority of crop and revenue insurance policies sold in the United States are single-crop policies that insure against low yields or revenues for each crop grown on the farm. But, increasingly, producer income is based more on the value of crops that have been converted into a value-added product such as ethanol. Moreover, the recent increases in energy and com-modity price levels and volatilities emphasize the importance of risk management to ethanol investors. This paper uses an insurance approach to outline a risk management tool which mimics the gross margin level of a typical corn-based ethanol plant. The gross margin, pre-mium, and indemnity levels are calculated on a per bushel basis to enable producers/investors to utilize the product...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Corn-based ethanol; Insurance; Risk management; Correlation; Monte Carlo; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44738

Cultivar Diversity: A Neglected Risk Management Strategy
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tadesse,   Dawit; Blank,   Steven C.
Risk reduction through diversification across cultivars is evaluated. A case study of peach growers in California shows that cultivar diversity reduces both yield and revenue variability. As a result, the probability of falling below minimum income requirements set using a safety-first model is reduced using this strategy.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Cultivar; Diversification; Peaches; Risk management; Safety first; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31093

Recap of the 2008 Crop Insurance Year: What Can We Learn from Models? (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Vergara,   Oscar; Zuba,   Gerhard; Seaquist,   Jack.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Models; Decision-making; Risk and Uncertainty; D81.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48910

Governance Stucture, Perception and Innovation in Credence Food Transactions: The Role of Food Community Networks
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pscucci,   Stefano.
Governance Stucture, Perception and Innovation in Credence Food Transactions: The Role of Food Community Networks
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Credence food; Food community network; Leisure; Involvement; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Production Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97026

Rating Crop Insurance Policies with Efficient Nonparametric Estimators that Admit Mixed Data Types
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Racine,   Jeffrey S.; Ker,   Alan P.
The identification of improved methods for characterizing crop yield densities has experienced a recent surge in activity due in part to the central role played by crop insurance in the Agricultural Risk Protection Act of 2000 (estimates of yield densities are required for the determination of insurance premium rates). Nonparametric kernel methods have been successfully used to model yield densities; however, traditional kernel methods do not handle the presence of categorical data in a satisfactory manner and have therefore tended to be applied on a county-by-county basis. By utilizing recently developed kernel methods that admit mixed data types, we are able to model the yield density jointly across counties, leading to substantial finite sample...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Discrete data; Insurance rating; Kernel estimation; Yield distributions; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10146

Climate Change, Risk and Grain Production in China
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Holst,   Rainer; Yu,   Xiaohua; Grun,   Carola.
This paper  employs  the production function-based method proposed by  Just and Pope  (1978, 1979) to explicitly analyze production risk in the context of Chinese grain farming  and climate change, and  test for a potential endogeneity of climate factors in Chinese  grain production.  Our results indicate that China might, at least in the short run, become a net beneficiary  of climate change.  In particular, we find that increases in annual average temperature  increase mean output at the margin and at the same time lead to a reduction of production  risk.  Further  calculations suggest that a 1 °C increase in annual average temperature  would entail an economic benefit of $1.1 billion due to the increasing mean output.  Furthermore,  a Hausman test...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Grain production; Climate change; Production risk; China; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q1; Q54.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61177

Constructing Farm Level Yield Densities from Aggregated Data: Analysis and Comparison of Approaches
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cooper,   Joseph C.; Langemeier,   Michael R.; Schnitkey,   Gary D.; Zulauf,   Carl R.
Yield variability can be significantly higher at the farm level than at more aggregated levels, including the county. However, due to a dearth of available farm level data, much stochastic analysis involving farm yields utilizes more aggregated yield data as a proxy for the farm level.  We empirically evaluate farm-level variability using longitudinal farm level data sets available from the Kansas Farm Management Association and the Illinois Farm Business and Farm Management Association.  For corn, soybeans, and wheat, we compare the farm level yield variability obtained from this data to that inferred from Federal crop insurance premiums.  The farm management data exhibit lower yield variability than are implied by the crop insurance premiums.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Yield variability; Crop insurance; Corn; Wheat; Soybeans; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49216

Actuarial Implication of Structural Changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index Dynamics
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chen,   Shu-Ling.
The influence of climate variability on agricultural production and financial risks faced by an individual or an institution has been the center of the public discussion in the recent years.  The changing weather patterns and environmental conditions could cause substantial unpredicted economic loss.  Failure to capture the changing climate would underestimate the insurance contract’s expected indemnity and further create a major obstacle for insurance sectors.  In this paper, we undertake a case study of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index insurance for coastal Peru proposed by Skees.  We examined the behavior of El Niño dynamics and found El Niño indices are changing over time.  A class of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Actuarial rating; Climate variability; El Niño; Fractional integration ARCH; FIGARCH; Index insurance; Structural change; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; G21; G22; Q10; Q14.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61384

Enterprise Risk Management at Top Agro Inc.
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Braga,   Francesco S.
Top Agro (TA - not its real name) is a small crop protection start-up operating in the European Union. In a relatively short period of time TA has been able to secure a reasonable profit margin and build a solid niche in the Italian crop protection market. The driving force in their success is the professional expertise of the two owners, their knowledge of the domestic market, and the highly flexible business model they’ve developed. Chemicals are sourced either in the Far East via a Hong Kong based commercial partner or purchased directly from other European domestic suppliers. TA is responsible for the formulation and packaging of the finished product, which is then distributed in the domestic Italian market. Although TA is now profitable, further sales...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Supply chain; Enterprise risk management; Currency risk management; Crop protection.; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/100878

Differential Uncertainties and Risk Attitudes between Conventional and Organic Producers: The Case of Spanish COP Farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Serra,   Teresa; Zilberman,   David; Gil,   Jose Maria.
The growing importance of economic factors in farmers’ decision to go organic has raised interest in characterizing the economic behavior of organic versus conventional farms. Published analyses so far have not considered differential uncertainties and farmers’ risk preferences between conventional and organic practices when comparing these techniques. Our article attempts to assess this issue. We use a model of farmer decision under risk to analyze the differential values between Spanish COP organic and conventional farms and to assess the incentives for adoption of organic practices. Results show that organic and conventional farms do have different abilities to control production risk as well as different risk preferences. Organic price premiums and...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9696

An Examination of the Volatile Nature of Grass Production in Ireland
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: O'Connor,   Declan; Hennessy,   Deirdre; Shalloo,   Laurence; Hurtado-Uria,   Cristina.
Grass production provides Irish dairy farmers with a competitive advantage over many of their mainland European counterparts by providing a cheap feed source. The temperate climate in Ireland favours the production of  grass, however production is highly seasonal with little growth over the winter period. This seasonal pattern of grass production in turn has resulted in predominantly spring calving dairy herds and has limited the development of the dairy product portfolio in Ireland which has created a reliance on dairy commodities. As Ireland exports approximately 80% of its dairy output, recent substantial increases in market price volatility has resulted in increased price volatility at farm level. The increased price volatility at market and farm level...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Grass Production; Volatility; Risk Management; Risk Management Tools; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122452

Impact of the Administrative Regulations in the Wine Value Chain: The Spanish Case
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: de Felipe,   Isabel; Briz,   Miguel; Briz,   Teresa.
The wine value chain is characterized by its traditional nature. The transformation of the raw material makes lasting products with a high added value, which entails large price differences between producers and consumers. Given the socioeconomic important of this sector, it has specially been taken into account by the administration, with a high level of intervention. There is an ample range of interventions, from a qualitative and from a quantitative point of view. The main objective of all these policies is the intention of controlling the supply and stimulating the demand. The impact of these measures is considered in the short term, to solve the surplus problems. However, at the long run, it has a negative impact. The new framework of the wine...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Wine; Regulations; Value chain; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59039

ON THE PREMIUM FOR REVENUE INSURANCE UNDER JOINT PRICE AND YIELD RISK
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Saak,   Alexander E.
This note provides two results pertaining to the pricing of agricultural revenue insurance contracts under joint price and yield risk. First, a weakening of the concordance ordering is used to sign the effect of greater dependence between the multiplicative risks (price and yield) on the expected indemnity payment. Second, sufficient conditions are found when the premium rate for revenue insurance is smaller (greater) than the premium for the corresponding single risk (price or yield) insurance.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Concordance order; Revenue insurance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18324

Risk Management Using Futures Contracts: The Impact of Spot Market Contracts and Production Horizons on the Optimal Hedge Ratio
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kuwornu,   John K.M.; Kuiper,   W. Erno; Pennings,   Joost M.E.; Meulenberg,   Matthew T.G.
We specify a principal-agent marketing channel involving producers, wholesalers, retailers and a futures market. Our hedge ratio for producers appears to be much lower than the common price-risk minimising ones as we account for producers’ vertical contracts and, by using annual data, their production horizon. The Dutch ware potato marketing channel and its futures market in Amsterdam show that possibly through decreases in producers’ and wholesalers’ risk aversions, their optimal dynamic hedge ratios decreased from 38% and 12%, respectively, in 1982 to 18% and 10%, respectively, in 2003. These results comply with the decreased futures volume traded in Amsterdam over the years.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Principal-Agent Model; Risk Management; Futures and Spot Market Contracts; Production Horizons; Food Marketing Channels; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7755

Decoupled Direct Payments Under Base Acreage and Yield Updating Uncertainty: An Investigation of Agricultural Chemical Use
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Peckham,   Janet G.; Kropp,   Jaclyn D.
Decoupled payments were thought to have minimal impacts on current production decisions and input use. However, the literature has identified several mechanisms through which decoupled payments become coupled. We analyze the effects of uncertainty regarding future policy changes on farm-level production decisions and input use, focusing on farmers’ expectations of base acreage and yield updating. Using farm-level data, we find positive relationships between both decoupled and other government payments and real per acre expenditures on agricultural chemicals. Furthermore, there is evidence that decoupled payments may affect the intensive margin more than other government payments.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Coupling; Decoupled payments; Input use; Intensive margin; Updating; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61214

ADOPTION OF CARBON-SEQUESTERING PRACTICES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND RISK-AVERSE FARMERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: De Pinto,   Alessandro; Robertson,   Richard D.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91272

Does Information Change Behavior?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Huffman,   Wallace E.
This paper reviews and synthesizes the theory of information economics and empirical evidence on how information changes the behavior of consumers, households and firms. I show that consumers respond to new information in food experiments but perhaps not in retirement account management. Some seeming perverse consumer/investor decision making may be a result of a complex decision with a low expected payoff.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Information economics; Consumer behavior; Behavioral economics; Moral hazard; Adverse selection.; Consumer/Household Economics; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55938

Comparison of Hedging Cost with Other Variable Input Costs
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Riley,   John Michael; Anderson,   John D.
Recent spikes in commodity prices have led to higher margin amounts and option premiums. For the most part, producers have always attributed their lack of use in reducing risk via futures and options markets to the high cost associated with the use of these markets. This study determines the relative costs of hedging with futures and options and compares these with the costs of other variable inputs. We find that with the exception of hedging corn with both tools and soybeans with options the costs of hedging has only increased at roughly the same rate as all other inputs.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Hedging costs; Costs of production; Risk management; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53045

Do Consumers Really Care about Biotech Food Label? What Do We Know? What Else Should We Know?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Chen,   Xi; Zhong,   Funing; Zhou,   Bin.
This paper is Selected for presentation at the Southern Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Atlanta, Georgia, January 31-February 3, 2009. The research is partially funded by ERS/USDA China Project and Social Science Fund of Jiangsu Province in China. The authors are grateful for comments from Dr. William Lin and Dr. Francis Tuan at ERS/USDA, and Prof. Loren Tauer at Cornell University. All errors are those of the authors.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Biotech labeling; Actual sales data; Household survey data; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Health Economics and Policy; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Marketing; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13; Q17; Q18.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46198

Hedging Price Risk in the Presence of Crop Yield and Revenue Insurance
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mahul,   Olivier.
The demand for hedging against price uncertainty in the presence of crop yield and revenue insurance contracts is examined for two French wheat farms. The rationale for the use of options in addition to futures is first highlighted through the characterization of the first-best hedging strategy in the expected utility framework. It is then illustrated using numerical simulations. The presence of options is shown to allow the insured producer to adopt a more speculative position on the futures market. Futures are shown to be performing, in terms of willingness to receive. Options are weakly performing when futures markets are unbiased, while they are more performing when futures markets are biased.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Hedging; Producer welfare; Simulation; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24881

What Drives How Much Crop Producers Sell in Spot, Forward, and Futures Markets?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Franken,   Jason R.V.; Pennings,   Joost M.E.
Crop producers have numerous marketing and risk management tools available. Research relating producers’ risk attitudes to their use of these tools has produced mixed results, and most studies focus on individual tools to the neglect of complementarities among them. Hence, little is known about the proportion in which these tools are used, e.g., the percentage of the crop that is forward sold as opposed to hedged. This study identifies some factors, including risk attitude, that impact the proportion of corn producers’ sales through spot markets, futures and options, and forward and production contracts using complementary survey and accounting data.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk behavior; Risk attitude; Futures and options; Forward contracts; Production contracts; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty; Q13.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49237

Determinants of the Storage Season Corn Basis in South Carolina
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kahl,   Kandice H.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1989
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116878

Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point in Small Plant Operations (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Schad,   Mark.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45862

THI APPLICATION TO INSURING AGAINST HEAT STRESS IN DAIRY COWS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Deng,   Xiaohui; Barnett,   Barry J.; Vedenov,   Dmitry V.; West,   Joe W.
Heat stress is associated with reduced milk production in dairy cows.  Insurance instruments based on an index of ambient temperature and relative humidity measured at Macon, Georgia and Tallahassee, Florida are shown to reduce net revenue risk for a representative farm in south-central Georgia.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34800

Factors Influencing Private Landowner  Restoration Investment Decisions in Coastal Louisiana
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dedah,   Cheikhna O.; Kazmierczak,   Richard F., Jr.; Keithly,   Walter R., Jr.
Coastal wetland loss has been a major problem in Louisiana, exceeding 1.2 million acres over the last century alone. Although federal, state, and local efforts have attempted to combat this loss from a public perspective, little has been done to encourage private landowners to maintain and protect their coastal lands.  This paper investigates the factors that influence private landowners to invest in coastal wetland restoration and maintenance activities in Louisiana.  We surveyed private coastal landowners to determine their general socioeconomic characteristics, attitudes toward risks, attitudes toward wetland conservation, current uses of landholdings, and previous investments in wetland restoration and maintenance projects. Using this survey data, an...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Wetlands; Restoration; Investment; Risk; Attitudes; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56451

Reductions of Agricultural Nitrogen Use Under Consideration of Production and Price Risks
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Finger,   Robert.
Production and price risks affect optimal nitrogen use as well as the effects of nitrogen taxation if farmers’ risk aversion is taken into account. Our empirical analysis for Swiss maize production shows that risk-aversion leads to lower levels of nitrogen application, and nitrogen taxes lead to higher reductions of nitrogen use for risk-averse than for risk-neutral farmers. Moreover, risk-averse farmers face lower abatement costs. Sensitivity analyses, that consider expected shocks in price and yield variability in Swiss maize production, show that these differences between risk-averse and risk-neutral farmers will increase further. Thus, agricultural policies should consider farmers’ risk-preferences as well as potential increases in farmers’ income risks.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114356

RISK MANAGEMENT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hulebak,   Karen.
Speech and PowerPoint Presentation
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33049

Wetterderivate: Ein Instrument im Risikomanagement für die Landwirtschaft?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Berg,   Ernst; Schmitz,   Bernhard; Starp,   Michael; Trenkel,   Hermann.
The risks associated with farming activities are likely to increase in the future. It, therefore, appears worthwhile to analyse new risk management instruments. This paper investigates weather derivatives for which a market has already emerged in the USA. Contrary to traditional financial derivatives, their payoff is determined by future weather events, such as temperature or precipitation. Thus, they hedge risks which result from climate. Since they address production risks they are complementary to instruments that hedge price risks, such as future markets. The objective of the paper is to evaluate the economic impacts of weather derivatives and to assess their potential as farm level instruments of risk management. After outlining the main...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Weather derivatives; Weather risk; Risk management; Stochastic simulation; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/97213

EVALUATION OF POTENTIAL FARMERS BENEFITS FROM HAIL SUPPRESSION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sonka,   Steven T.; Potter,   Craig W.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1977
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32173

MARKETING OF COTTON FIBER IN THE PRESENCE OF YIELD AND PRICE RISK
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wojciechowski,   Jan; Ames,   Glenn C.W.; Turner,   Steven C.; Miller,   Bill R.
An expected utility model and a chance constrained linear programming model were used to analyze four marketing strategies and seven crop insurance alternatives in cotton marketing in Georgia.  The results obtained suggest that the existing marketing tools and insurance alternatives can be used successfully as a substitute for government support.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16685

Price volatility on the German Agricultural Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ledebur,   Oliver von; Schmitz,   Jochen.
In this contribution, the development of price volatility on German agricultural markets is analyzed. We quantify the degree of price volatility for selected German agricultural markets and determine how it evolves over time and search for policy driven structural changes in volatility levels measured by the historical volatility. Based on annualised historical volatilities t test were performed to identify if the change in the volatility levels show any relationship to the process of reform of the CAP. An increase in volatility could be identified for the main German markets regulated by the Common Market Organisations. A positive relationship among the reform process of the CAP and the changes of the volatility levels could be identified particularly for...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Volatility; German agricultural markets; Agricultural policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q11; Q13; Q18.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122534

Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Johnson,   James B.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29213

Malt Barley Risk Management Strategies
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gustafson,   Cole R.; Wilson,   William W.; Dahl,   Bruce L.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92873

THE EFFECTS OF RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES WITH DIVERSIFIED HOG/CROP PRODUCTION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nydene,   Cory; Patrick,   George F.; Baker,   Timothy G.
Risk management strategies were compared using a corn/soybean farm, a hog farm, and a diversified hog/crop farm.  Results suggest risk management tools are more effective in combinations, hog/crop diversification shows limited risk reducing benefits, and the effects of choosing among risk management tools may be overemphasized.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21694

INTEGRATED CROP AND LIVESTOCK RISK MODELING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tembo,   Gelson; Kaitibie,   Simeon; Epplin,   Francis M.
This study was conducted to determine risk efficient production strategies for crop and livestock producers who have the opportunity to produce wheat as a dual-purpose forage and grain crop.  Empirical data obtained from field trials were incorporated into an integrated crop and livestock production and marketing risk programming model.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21505

THE POTENTIAL FOR REVENUE INSURANCE POLICIES IN THE SOUTH
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Skees,   Jerry R.; Harwood,   Joy L.; Somwaru,   Agapi; Perry,   Janet E.
The 1996 Farm Act and the 1994 Crop Insurance Reform Act are recent examples of policy changes that have increased risks for U.S. farmers. New products are emerging to help farmers manage risks. This article examines some of the policy changes, farmer responses, and new risk-sharing products. The focus turns to the new revenue insurance products and their potential in the South. While there are reasons to believe revenue insurance should be attractive in the South, any revenue products that use existing crop insurance rates will face difficulties since poor actuarial performance in the South has resulted in relatively high rates.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural policy; Crop insurance; Revenue insurance; Risk; Southern agriculture; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15093

A MODEL FOR THE APPRAISAL OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF THE PROJECTS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Soliman,   Ibrahim.
Social Appraisal of Agricultural Projects
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Direct cost; External costs; External benefits; Net present value; Sensitivity analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Health Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1995
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119883

CROP INSURANCE- PRIVATE CHOICE FOR PUBLIC CONCERN- THE COMPANY'S ROLE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Griffin,   Steven C.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32933

The Implications of Skewed Risk Perception for a Dutch Coastal Land Market: Insights from an Agent-Based Computational Economics Model
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Filatova,   Tatiana; Parker,   Dawn Cassandra; van der Veen,   Anne.
Dutch coastal land markets are characterized by high amenity values but are threatened by potential coastal hazards, leading to high potential damage costs from flooding. Yet, Dutch residents generally perceive low or no flood risk. Using an agent-based land market model and Dutch survey data on risk perceptions and location preferences, this paper explores the patterns of land development and land rents produced by buyers with low, highly skewed risk perceptions. We find that, compared to representative agent and uniform risk perception models, the skewed risk perception distribution produces substantially more, high-valued development in risky coastal zones, potentially creating economically significant risks triggered by the current Dutch flood...
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Land markets; Risk perceptions; Agent-based modeling; The Netherlands; Survey; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120639

Vulnerability and Risk Management among Turkmen Leaseholders
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Glukhikh,   Rimma; Lerman,   Zvi; Schwartz,   Moshe.
High risk is inherent to agriculture in Turkmenistan, a post-socialist desert country where the political uncertainties of transition exacerbate natural unpredictability. This study examines risk coping strategies of Turkmen farmers based on a survey of 1100 respondents carried out in 2002 in all five provinces. We propose a new composite index of vulnerability, which includes human capital indicators and geographic location. The analysis relies on a single independent variable, which nevertheless incorporates the effect of criteria interactions. Using survey data, we analyze income smoothing as a mechanisms of risk management across vulnerability groups. Consistently with theoretical expectations, the most vulnerable households seem prefer a smaller, but...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Turkmenistan; Transition; Vulnerability; Income smoothing; Risk and Uncertainty; D1; J2; Q12.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25757

Contemporary Issues in Estimating Yield Distributions
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pujula,   Aude Liliana; Maradiaga,   David Isaias; Dicks,   Michael R.
In the research area of crop yield density estimation and in particular in risk analysis, little emphasis has been given to the appropriateness of transformation methods (e.g., removing a linear trend) and how such transformations impact the reliability of the empirical distribution functions and the resulting probability estimates. Similarly, there is little consensus on the impact of environmental variables (e.g., rainfall and temperature) on empirical distributions of yields. Using historical county corn yield data for Arkansas and Louisiana and nonparametric methods, this empirical analysis shed light on the importance of data transformation in crop risk analysis. Results demonstrate that inappropriate data treatment can lead to misestimation of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Probability Density Estimation; Nonparametric; Kernel; Nonstationary; Unit Roots; Data Transformations; Corn Yields; Weather; Production Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56527

A Portfolio Approach to Cooperative Price Risk Management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gjolberg,   Ole; Steen,   Marie.
Agricultural producers face significant price risk. For some products, farmers may hedge this risk in well-functioning futures markets. For several products, however, no such risk management instrument is readily available. We suggest that farmers reduce price risk by organizing cooperatives where members diversify by creating "accounting" portfolios. The approach is illustrated with data from the Dutch flower market, and some practical problems connected to such cooperative risk pooling in agriculture are addressed.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46374

Investment in Cellulosic Biofuel Refineries: Does the Waivable Mandate Matter?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Miao,   Ruiqing; Babcock,   Bruce A.; Hennessy,   David A.
Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) aims to support investment in cellulosic biofuel refineries by mandating a floor on the amount of biofuels being consumed in every calendar year. Tradable Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) is the market mechanism by which the mandates are to be met. But the RFS allows for a waiver of the mandates. In this paper we construct a conceptual model to study the impact of RINs on stimulating investment in cellulosic biofuel refineries under a waivable mandate. In a two-period framework, we compare the first-period investment level in three scenarios: (1) laissez-faire, (2) non-waivable mandate implemented through RINs, and (3) waivable mandate implemented through RINs. We find that RINs associated with a waivable mandate may or...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Cellulosic biofuels; Renewable identification numbers; Waivable mandate; Investment; Industrial Organization; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61165

PRICE RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR GRAIN IMPORTERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wilson,   William W.; Wagner,   Robert.
The presence of multiple sources of uncertainty complicates hedging decisions.  One of these is the output price and its correlation with input prices.  The other is how far forward a firm covers its positions.  This study analyzes hedging strategies for grain importers as processors.  The analytical model addresses questions of the hedge horizon and accounts for the correlation between input and output prices and exchange rate risk.  A theoretical model was developed explicitly modeling the operations of a grain importing firm.  The concept of strategic demand for hedging was developed in the context of an analytical model, representing the adjustment in hedge ratios in relation to the hedge horizon and input-output price correlations.  Results indicated...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Price risk uncertainty; Hedging; Grain; Importers; International Relations/Trade; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23665

Effects of volatile output prices on agricultural land-use change
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Boere,   Esther; Peerlings,   Jack H.M.; Reinhard,   Stijn; Kuhlman,   Tom; Heijman,   Wim J.M.
Volatile output prices lead to a fluctuating shadow price (profitability) of agricultural land, and therefore may impact land use decisions in case of risk-averse behaviour. In this paper we assess the effect of volatile agricultural output prices on agricultural land-use change over the past decade in the Netherlands. Using regional data from 2000 through 2009, the number of hectares of land for 10 land uses was calculated. To determine the joint distribution of agricultural activities, hectares of land for each land use were converted to land share equations. Land share equations were estimated to determine the contribution of increased price volatility to land use change. Results show that larger volatility affects land shares negatively. Producer’s...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Land-use; Risk; Price volatility; Risk and Uncertainty; Q1; D8.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122472

Predicting the Corn Basis in the Texas Triangle Area
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mkrtchyan,   Vardan; Welch,   J. Mark; Power,   Gabriel J.
This study develops a new and straightforward economic model of basis forecasting that outperforms the simple three-year average method suggested in much of the literature. We use monthly data of the corn basis in the Texas Triangle Area from February 1997 to July 2008. The results and the graphs indicate that the new model based on economic fundamentals performs better than basis estimates using a three-year moving average.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Hedging; Basis; Corn; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46759

Manure Application Rules and Environmental Considerations
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Massey,   Raymond E.; Gedikoglu,   Haluk.
Three manure application limits (N Limit, Annual P Limit and P Banking) were modeled with particular attention to the number of hours needed to appropriately distribute manure.  The benefit and costs estimates indicated that P Banking was more profitable than N Limit which was more profitable than Annual P Limit.  The number of hours required indicated that the Annual P Limit would not be completed within a two month window approximately 2 of 10 years.  The increased number of hours for the Annual P Limit also increased the probability of a runoff event following manure application, relative to the other two scenarios.  This work indicates that regulations that require Annual P Limits of manure cost the farmer and may have the unintended consequence of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Manure; Environment; Policy; Runoff; Hours; Acres; Probability; Rainfall; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98765

UTILITY MEASUREMENT FOR THOSE WHO NEED TO KNOW
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Halter,   A.N.; Mason,   Robert.
A practical technique for estimating decision-makers’ utility functions by survey or group methods is explained and illustrated. Results from a survey of 44 Oregon farmers are reported. Risk attitudes of respondents are related to farm and decision-maker characteristics. Regression analysis found age, education, and percentage of land ownership, either separately or jointly, to be statistically significant variables related to risk attitude. Risk attitudes measured from the estimated utility functions were found to be uniformly distributed across risk aversion, neutral and preference. Even though further empirical work is needed, it appears that the distribution of risk attitude among the human population cannot be predicted from a single variable.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1978
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32548

MANAGING THE RISK OF EUROPEAN CORN BORER RESISTANCE TO TRANSGENIC CORN: AN ASSESSMENT OF CONTROVERSIAL REFUGE RECOMMENDATIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hurley,   Terrance M.; Secchi,   Silvia; Hellmich,   Richard L.
A bioeconomic model is developed to evaluate the tradeoff between the risk of resistance and increased productivity when refuge is planted in conjunction with transgenic pesticidal corn. The model is used to evaluate controversial refuge recommendations when producers are allowed to treat refuge in years of high pest pressure.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Productivity Analysis; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21606

THE ESSENTIALS OF RAINFALL DERIVATIVES AND INSURANCE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Turvey,   Calum G.
This paper investigates the use of rainfall insurance to manage agricultural production risks.  A number of rainfall insurance products are presented along with a raitonal model which identifies the economics of rainfall.  The use of rainfall insurance will increase in future years as capital markets, financial institutions, reinsurance companies, crop insurance companies, and hedge funds collectively organize to share and distribute weather risks.  The focus of this paper is in fact directed towards the intermediation function of risk markets rather than on end user benefits.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34149

The GIC Ag Carbon Index (GIC-ACI):  Development, Design, Value Proposition, and Applications (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gilmore,   Richard; Williams,   Dawson; Tanger,   Kyle.
Presented to USDA Economists Group, Washington, DC, 16 July 2009
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Carbon Market; Index; Emissions; Agribusiness; Financial Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q; C; G.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53118

Australia Agriculture Policy Review
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gilmour,   Brad; Gurung,   Rajendra Kumar.
Australia is a significant player in world trade for several commodities and agriculture is a vital part of the Australian economy.  Around 60% of Australia is devoted to agriculture, with three broad zones in which agricultural activity occurs. These are referred to as the pastoral, wheat–sheep, and high rainfall zones. Australia had only about 130,000 commercial farms in 2005, so average farm size is high.  Australia's agriculture is market driven and export-oriented. For some products, aggregations for values of production and for export values are not directly comparable because export values reflect the value of more highly processed products such as sugar and wine. Overall, about 65% of agricultural production is exported, representing about 25% of...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Australia; Agricultural policy; Adjustment; Business risk management; Productivity; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46669

Risk Management Challenges In A Changing Crop Nutrients Industry (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Swanson,   Keith.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51605

Optimizing whole-farm management considering price and climate risks
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lehmann,   Niklaus; Finger,   Robert.
We investigate impacts of climate change (CC) and likely increases in price risks on income, income variability, utility and on adaptation responses in crop production in Western Switzerland. To this end, a bio-economic model is used that combines a crop growth model with an economic decision model non-parametrically using genetic algorithms. Our analysis focuses on the farm-level, which enables us to integrate a much wider set of potential adaptation responses in our analysis. The model is applied to four scenarios that represent likely changes in environmental conditions due to CC as well as increasing price risks due to market liberalization, and combinations thereof. It shows that CC has the larger influence on farm-level income and utility as well as...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Genetic Algorithms; Agricultural Modeling; Climate Change; Price risks; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122533

Comparing the Risks and Returns of Alternative Price Risk Management Strategies for Southeastern Feeder Cattle Production
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Nardi,   Matias G.; Davis,   Todd D.; Lacy,   Curt; Prevatt,   J. Walter; Hewitt,   Timothy D.
A non-parametric simulation model incorporating price risk determined gross revenue less risk management costs for cow-calf, winter stockering, and retained ownership scenarios for cattle producers in the Southeast.  Risk management scenarios simulated hedging with commodity futures and purchasing at-the-money put options at alternative dates prior to the expected sales date.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35457

Prospects for a European Animal Welfare Label from the German Perspective: Supply Chain Barriers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Franz,   Annabell; von Meyer,   Marie; Spiller,   Achim.
The Federal Government of Germany as well as the European Commission are discussing the establishment of an animal welfare label. This label should enable consumers to make a conscious purchasing decision on animal welfare products. Various studies show that many consumers (in Germany around 20 %) prefer products produced under animal friendly conditions. However, the supply of such products is limited. The following study examines the source of this discrepancy by way of an action‐based analytical approach and identifies different barriers within the supply chain that prevent the establishment of a market segment for animal welfare products. Although consumer demand will be decisive for long‐term success, first of all the stakeholders of the supply chain...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Animal welfare; Label; Supply chain; Neo‐institutionalism.; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Industrial Organization; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101284

A Comparison of the Effectiveness of Using Futures, Options, LRP Insurance, or AGR-Lite Insurance to Manage Risk for Cow-calf Producers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Feuz,   Dillon M.
A comparative analysis was performed looking at using cash, futures, options, or insurance to manage the price of calves for cow-calf producer. Risk can be reduced with the futures market and with options or LRP insurance. Options and LRP insurance are equivalent in the amount of risk that is reduced. AGR-Lite does not appear to be an effective policy at reducing risk for cow-calf producers.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Cow-calf risk; Feeder cattle futures; Options; LRP Feeder Cattle; AGR-Lite; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Livestock Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53046

Enterprise-level risk assessment of geographically diversified commercial farms:  a copula approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Larsen,   Ryan A.; Vedenov,   Dmitry V.; Leatham,   David J.
As agriculture becomes more industrialized, the role of risk measures such as value-at-risk (VaR) will become more utilized.  In this case it was applied to geographical diversification and also modifying the traditional VaR estimation by incorporating a copula dependence parameter into the VaR estimation.  In addition, an alternative risk measure was also calculated, CVaR.  The CVaR, unlike VaR, is a coherent risk measure.  Thus it does not suffer from many of the shortcomings of the VaR.   The land portfolio consisted of Dryland wheat production acres in Texas, Colorado, and Montana.  Three series of net returns were calculated for each region.  Based on the VaR and the CVaR, the portfolio was optimized based on minimizing the expected loss based on...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Copula; CVaR; Risk-Management; Geographical Diversification; Agribusiness; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46763

An Integrated Approach to Modeling Price Volatility in the Live Cattle Futures Market
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Evans,   Kevin J.; Streeter,   Deborah H.; Hudson,   Michael A.
An understanding of changes in price volatility is of value to policy makers and exchange committee members as well as other participants in commodity futures markets. Previous research has studied volatility by measuring: 1) the flow of new information into the market, or 2) the effect that the structure of the futures market has on price volatility. In this paper, a model is developed which integrates these two themes in the literature to measure and explain price volatility in live cattle futures prices. The model is subjected to a battery of diagnostic tests so that a comparison can be made between the integrated model and models from previous research. Also, since price volatility from the underlying commodity is a major component in the determination...
Tipo: Working Paper
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1992
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121352

An Empirical Evaluation of Irrigation Insurance for Agricultural Systems in the Mexican Northwest
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Leiva,   Akssell J.; Skees,   Jerry R.
Prototype inflow-based derivative contracts are designed to hedge irrigation risk in the Rio Mayo Valley of Sonora, Mexico. The results indicate that an 18-month contract is feasible given the specific characteristics of the region selected for the study.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34177

VERTICAL INTEGRATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT: AN APPLICATION TO A CATTLE RANCH
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Whitson,   Robert E.; Barry,   Peter J.; Lacewell,   Ronald D.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1976
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29763

YIELD AND INCOME RISK REDUCTION UNDER ALTERNATIVE CROP INSURANCE AND DISASTER ASSISTANCE DESIGNS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Carriker,   Gordon L.; Williams,   Jeffery R.; Barnaby,   Glenn Arthur, Jr.; Black,   J. Roy.
This study compares the effectiveness of five crop insurance/disaster assistance plans: an individual farm-yield insurance plan similar to the current Federal Crop Insurance Corporation multiperil program, two area-yield insurance plans, a farm-yield disaster assistance plan, and an area-yield disaster assistance plan. These methods are examined for reduction in yield and gross income variability with and without participation in the government deficiency payment program using farm-level yield data from 98 dryland wheat farms and 38 dryland corn farms in Kansas. Although individual farm-yield insurance is complex, suffers from moral hazard and adverse selection problems, and is likely to be the most expensive to administer, it provides more yield and gross...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1991
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32588

RISK ASSESSMENT PROVISIONS OF IMPORT AND EXPORT REGULATIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ahl,   Alwynelle (Nell) S.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33261

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF SUBSIDIZED LIVESTOCK INSURANCE ON LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Coffey,   Brian K.; Skees,   Jerry R.; Dillon,   Carl R.; Anderson,   John D.
Recent legislation has cleared the way for subsidized livestock price insurance.  Such programs could increase production.  Expected feeder cattle prices with and without subsidized insurance will be analyzed using E-V and Stochastic Dominance.  Results will highlight the potential effects of the program on marketing risk and production decisions.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20606

LINKAGES BETWEEN CROP INSURANCE AND PRE-HARVEST HEDGING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dhuyvetter,   Kevin C.; Kastens,   Terry L.
The impact pre-harvest hedging and crop insurance strategies have on expected revenue and associated risk as well as how producers' risk attitudes affect optimal strategies was analyzed for Kansas wheat farms.  No insurance, Catastrophic (CAT), Actual Production History (APH), and Crop Revenue Coverage (CRC) were considered.  Average revenue was similar across alternatives, but APH and CRC resulted in the least income variability.  Risk reduction effects of hedging were small and the advantage of CRC over APH decreases as hedging increases.  This historical study provides useful information; however, if future market conditions differ significantly from the past, optimal strategies may change.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Hedging; Revenue insurance; Risk management; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15133

The Impact of Group-Based Credit on Demand for Productive Inputs and Agricultural Productivity in Rural Kenya
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mghenyi,   Elliot W.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural credit; Joint liability; Productive inputs; Productivity; Agricultural Finance; International Development; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; D24; Q14; R34.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49470

Cover and Contents Pages
Provedor de dados: 31
Includes:  Front Cover, Editorial Information, Contents Page, Editorial Board, Association Officers, Executive Committee
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; Industrial Organization; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Labor and Human Capital; Land Economics/Use; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Political Economy; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Public Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55552

Zur Reduzierung niederschlagsbedingter Produktionsrisiken mit Wetterderivaten
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Musshoff,   Oliver; Odening,   Martin; Xu,   Wei.
In this paper we price a precipitation option based on empirical weather data from Germany using different pricing methods, among them the burn analysis, index value simulation and daily simulation. For that purpose we develop a daily precipitation model. Moreover, a decorrelation analysis is proposed to analyse the spatial basis risk that is inherent to rainfall derivatives. The models are applied to precipitation data in Brandenburg, Germany. Based on simplifying assumptions of the production function we quantify and compare the risk exposure of grain producers with and without rainfall insurance. It turns out that a considerable risk remains with producers who are located remotely from the weather station. Another finding is that significant differences...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Weather risk; Weather derivatives; Precipitation model; Basis risk; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18822

Risk Assessment in Economic Feasibility Analysis: The Case of Ethanol Production in Texas
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Richardson,   James W.; Herbst,   Brian K.; Outlaw,   Joe L.; Anderson,   David P.; Klose,   Steven L.; Gill,   Robert Chope, II.
The objective of this study is to demonstrate the benefits of quantifying the economic viability of a proposed agribusiness under risk relative to a feasibility study which ignores risk. To achieve this objective, the economic viability of a 50 MMGPY ethanol facility in Texas is analyzed over a 10-year period in two ways: with no risk and with historical risk for prices and costs.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42095

On the (Mis)Use of Wealth as a Proxy for Risk Aversion (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bellemare,   Marc F.; Brown,   Zachary S.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk aversion; Risk; Decision-making; Risk and Uncertainty; D81.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48913

Representing Risk Preferences in Expected Utility Based Decision Models
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Meyer,   Jack.
The application and estimation of expected utility based decision models would benefit from having additional simple and flexible functional forms to represent risk preferences. The literature so far has provided these functional forms for the utility function itself.  This work shows that functional forms for the marginal utility function are as useful, are easier to provide, and can represent a larger set of risk preferences.  Several functional forms for marginal utility are suggested, and how they can be used is discussed.  These marginal utility functions represent risk preferences that cannot be represented by any functional form for the utility function.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9380

The Role of Infrastructure in Mitigating Poverty Dynamics: The Case of an Irrigation Project in Sri Lanka
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sawada,   Yasuyuki; Shoji,   Masahiro; Sugawara,   Shinya; Shinkai,   Naoko.
Although it is known that access to physical infrastructure enhances household welfare, there are hardly any micro-econometric studies that analyze the role of infrastructure in mitigating chronic and transient poverty. This paper aims to bridge this gap in the existing literature by evaluating the impact of a large-scale irrigation project implemented in Sri Lanka.  We extend the seasonal consumption smoothing model of Paxson (1993) by introducing endogenous credit constraints.  We collected unique household-level monthly panel data over a period of two years.  According to the point estimates, with irrigation accessibility, per capita food and non-food consumption expenditures increase by around 20% and 45%, respectively, on average, and the probability...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Poverty Reduction; Role of Infrastructure; Monthly Panel Data; Consumer/Household Economics; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Risk and Uncertainty; O16.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51461

QUANTIFYING GAINS TO RISK DIVERSIFICATION USING CERTAINTY EQUIVALENCE IN A MEAN-VARIANCE MODEL: AN APPLICATION TO FLORIDA CITRUS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Featherstone,   Allen M.; Moss,   Charles B.
The marginal benefit and cost of diversification for Florida orange producers is analyzed using certainty equivalents. Results indicate that for moderate and high levels of risk aversion, diversification into strawberry, grapefruit, or additional orange production is not optimal. However, moderately risk averse Florida orange producers can gain by diversifying into grapefruit production if the annual amortized fixed costs can be reduced by as little as 10 percent.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1990
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30002

Hedging Irrigation Risk through Water Markets: Trends and Opportunities
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hadjigeorgalis,   Ereney.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92874

INFORMATION SOURCES PREFERRED BY LIMITED RESOURCE FARMERS IN USING AGRICULTURAL RISK TOOLS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ngathou,   Ingrid Nya; Bukenya,   James O.; Chembezi,   Duncan M.
The paper examines limited resource farmers' perceptions of the usefulness of selected sources of risk management information. The rationale is to understand the information needs of this group of farmers and to customize outreach programs to address their needs.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35581

Crop Yield Skewness and the Normal Distribution
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hennessy,   David A.
Empirical studies point to negative crop yield skewness, but the literature provides few clear insights as to why. This paper formalizes three points on the matter. Statistical laws on aggregates do not imply a normal distribution. Whenever the weather-conditioned mean yield has diminishing marginal product with respect to a weather-conditioning index, then there is a disposition toward negative yield skewness. This is because high marginal product in bad weather stretches out the yield distribution's left tail relative to that for weather. For disaggregated yields, unconditional skewness is decomposed into weather-conditioned skewness plus two other terms and each is studied in turn.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Conditional distribution; Crop insurance; Negative skewness; Normal distribution; Statistical laws; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50084

DESIGN OF INCENTIVES IN COMMUNITY BASED HEALTH INSURANCE SCHEMES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ahuja,   Rajeev; Jutting,   Johannes Paul.
Community based health insurance is an emerging and promising concept that has attracted the attention of policy makers as it addresses health care challenges faced by the poor. This paper discusses solutions to important incentive problems in micro-health insurance schemes which threaten their sustainability. In particular, three issues are explored: (i) if defining household as unit of insurance always mitigates adverse selection problem; (ii) how ex ante moral hazard problem can be circumvented through group insurance contract; and (iii) how to set incentives for scheme managers. Various public policies are discussed that help to set appropriate incentives to better manage health insurance schemes in low-income country environments.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Health Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18744

Risk-Risk Tradeoffs in Fish Consumption: Can You Have the Cake and Eat It Too?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rheinberger,   Christoph M.; Hammitt,   James K.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114813

AGRICULTURAL PRICE VOLATILITY UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE: The Impact of Multiple Objectives on Commodity Prices
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fuss,   Sabine; Havlik,   Petr; Szolgayova,   Jana; Obersteiner,   Michael; Schmid,   Erwin.
Agricultural price volatility has moved to the forefront of research efforts and political discussion, where much work is already being undertaken with respect to the impact of fluctuations in input prices (e.g. fertilizer, feed and energy). In this paper we also want to take into account the impact of climate change on prices via increased volatility in crop yields. In addition, we analyze the impact of having multiple objectives competing for the land on which crops are grown. In particular, we want to address the concerns that have been voiced about biofuel targets and calls for prioritization of food security.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Energy; Food security; Food price volatility; Optimization under uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q18; Q28; C61; D81.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122539

Time-varying Yield Distributions and the U.S. Crop Insurance Program
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Zhu,   Ying; Goodwin,   Barry K.; Ghosh,   Sujit K.
The objective of this study is to evaluate and model the yield risk associated with major agricultural commodities in the U.S. We are particularly concerned with the nonstationary nature of the yield distribution, which primarily arises because of technological progress and changing environmental conditions. Precise risk assessment depends on the accuracy of modeling this distribution. This problem becomes more challenging as the yield distribution changes over time, a condition that holds for nearly all major crops. A common approach to this problem is based on a two-stage method in which the yield is first detrended and then the estimated residuals are treated as observed data and modeled using various parametric or nonparametric methods. We propose an...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/104420

Does Crop Insurance Affect Crop Yields?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Roberts,   Michael J.; O'Donoghue,   Erik J.; Key,   Nigel D.
We use administrative data from the Federal crop insurance program to examine how yield distributions change as farmers cycle into and out of the program.  We are able to do this by linking many years of crop insurance data by individual farm conditioning observed yields on the particular county and year in which they are observed. Armed with millions of observations, we examine many states and five major crops: corn, soybeans, wheat, rice and cotton.  We find little evidence that yield distributions are affected by insurance.  An exception is rice in Arkansas, where insurance shifts the distribution markedly downward.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9828

The Deregulation and Rationalization of Australia's Dairy Industry-Implications for the U.S. and World Dairy Industries
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dobson,   William D.; Wagner,   Jeffrey.
The termination of Australia's Domestic Market Support scheme for manufacturing milk producers and the end of state market milk (fluid milk) pricing regulations on June 30, 2000 made Australia's dairy industry arguably the most deregulated in the world. Australia's milk production will become concentrated on larger farms in low-cost milk production areas as a result of deregulation. Deregulation is expected to enhance Australia's competitiveness in dairy export markets. Valuable lessons for the dairy industries of the U.S., EU, and other countries can be gained from analyzing the forces that caused Australia's dairy industry to deregulate. Of interest too is the restructuring package that Australia's dairy industry and Australia's government used to help...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Australia's Domestic Market Support Scheme; Australia's Milk Production; Deregulation; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; Industrial Organization; International Development; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37661

Probabilistic Models of Yield, Price, and Revenue Risks for Fed Cattle Production
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Belasco,   Eric J.; Taylor,   Mykel R.; Goodwin,   Barry K.; Schroeder,   Ted C.
Cattle feeding enterprises operate amid variability originating in prices and production. This research explicitly models yield risks related to cattle feeding by relating the mean and variance of yield performance factors to observable conditioning variables. The results demonstrate that pen characteristics, such as entry weight, gender, placement season, and location influence the mean and variability of yield factors, defined as dry matter feed conversion, average daily gain, mortality, and animal health costs. Ex ante profit distributions, conditional on cattle placement characteristics, are derived through simulation methods to evaluate the effects of price or yield shocks on the distributional characteristics of expected profits.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Conditional variance; Production risk; Cattle feeding; Yields; Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; D24; D81; Q12.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48761

Stabilization of Upland Agriculture under El Nino-Induced Climatic Risks: Regional and Farm Level Risk Management and Coping Mechanisms in the Kedah-Perlis Region, Malaysia
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tawang,   Ariffin; Tengku Ahmad,   Tengku bin Ariff.
This study is an extension of the earlier study with a focus on the impact of the El Nino induced weather changes at the regional and farm levels. It provides a complete continuum of the impacts and implications of El Nino from the national to the regional and farm levels. Hence, the general objective of the study is to determine the impact of El Nino induced climate variability on agriculture at the sub-national and farm level, and to identify appropriate mechanisms to mitigate the impact so as to ensure the stability of the agricultural contribution to the regional and farm economy. In this study, the northwest region of Peninsular Malaysia was chosen as the region under study. It comprises of the states of Kedah and Perlis. The main climatic feature of...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Climatic change; Risk; Agricultural products; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32695

RISK-RETURN ASSESSMENT OF IRRIGATION DECISIONS IN HUMID REGIONS: AN EXTENSION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tew,   Bernard V.; Boggess,   William G.
The risk effects of irrigation scheduling in a sub-humid climate have been well documented recently using approximations of the variance of net returns.  A method to determine the exact variance of net returns assuming only multivariant normality is presented.  The approximation technique in contrast to the method presented in this research was shown to have a non-uniform effect on the variance of net returns of each schedule.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1984
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29738

An Application of Target-MOTAD Programming to the Analysis of Downside Business and Financial Risk on Farms
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Parton,   Kevin A.; Cumming,   Robert J.
In this paper a description is provided of the development and use of a target-MOTAD model for use in consultative work with farmers who are under financial pressure. The analysis of downside risk and introduction of a trade-off between financial and business risks are key features of this model that make it especially applicable to such situations.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1990
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12286

Potato Prices as Affected by Supply and Demand Factors: An Irish Case Study
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Thorne,   Fiona S.
The supply and demand factors affecting the farm level price for Irish potatoes has undergone considerable change in the last two decades. On the demand side, per capita consumption has decreased by almost a half, and the use of potatoes has shifted from consumption of table stock potatoes towards greater levels of processed potato products. On the supply side, domestic production levels of potatoes decreased by just over 30 percent, whilst grower numbers decreased by greater than 75 percent over the same period. Against this background of significant changes in domestic consumption levels and patterns and domestic production of potatoes this paper examines the effect of these factors on potato price levels and variability. Farm level price and volatility...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122473

The Volatility Spillover Effects and Optimal Hedging Strategy in the Corn Market
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wu,   Feng; Guan,   Zhengfei.
This article examines the volatility spillovers from energy market to corn market. Using a volatility spillover model from the finance literature, we found significant spillovers from energy market to corn cash and futures markets, and the spillover effects are time-varying. The business cycle proxied by crude oil prices is shown to affect the magnitude of spillover effects over time. Based on the strong informational linkage between energy market and corn market, a cross hedge strategy is proposed and its performance studied. The simulation outcomes show that compared to alternative strategies of no hedge, constant hedge, and GARCH hedge, the cross hedge does not yield superior risk-reduction performance.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Volatility Spillover; GARCH; Optimal Hedge Ratio; Energy Price; Corn Price; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49453

Modeling farmer participation to a revenue insurance scheme by means of Positive Mathematical Programming
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Severini,   Simone; Cortignani,   Raffaele.
European farmers face increasing income uncertainty and the debate is growing on the role of insurance schemes and of public support in this field. This debate is further stimulated by the perspective of introducing instruments to cope with risk also in the Common Agricultural Policy. Therefore, there is a need for empirical analysis and tools aimed at providing empirical evidences on this subject. This paper applies a PMP modelling approach that takes into explicit consideration risk aversion behaviour to test the possibility to use it to assess the implications of participating in a insurance scheme. This is done by introducing a revenue insurance scheme into a model developed on a small group of crop farms in Italy. In particular, a quadratic mix...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Insurance schemes; PMP; Farmers’ participation; Risk aversion; Non-linear mix-integer programming; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; C61; Q18.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116001

Get a GRIP: Should Area Revenue Coverage be Offered through the Farm Bill or as a Crop Insurance Program?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Paulson,   Nicholas D.; Babcock,   Bruce A.
The successful expansion of the U.S. crop insurance program has not eliminated ad hoc disaster assistance. An alternative currently being explored by members of Congress and others in preparation of the 2007 farm bill is to simply remove the “ad hoc” part of disaster assistance programs by creating a standing program that would automatically funnel aid to hard-hit regions and crops. One form such a program could take can be found in the area yield and area revenue insurance programs currently offered by the U.S. crop insurance program. The Group Risk Plan (GRP) and Group Risk Income Protection (GRIP) programs automatically trigger payments when county yields or revenues, respectively, fall below a producer-elected coverage level. The per-acre taxpayer...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9842

UTILITY-EFFICIENT PROGRAMMING FOR WHOLE-FARM PLANNING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hardaker,   J. Brian; Patten,   Louise H.; Pannell,   David J.
A programming technique, utility-efficient programming, is developed for farm planning under risk. The objective function is the parametric sum of two parts of the utility function in which the degree of risk aversion varies systematically with the parameter. This technique has several advantages over those previously available: a number of types of utility functions are applicable including ones exhibiting decreasing risk aversion; the degree of risk aversion can be limited to a plausible range; the form of the distribution for activity net revenues is flexible; and the technique can be used with available algorithms. The method is illustrated using a parametric linear programming algorithm.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1988
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22959

THE POTENTIAL ROLE OF PRICE INSURANCE TO IMPROVE WELFARE OF HONDURAN COFFEE PRODUCERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: McCarthy,   Nancy; Sun,   Yan.
Coffee is the major export crop in Honduras, but the export price is relatively low. This paper investigates the potential role for a coffee price insurance product - based on the use of the coffee future market - to increasing producer welfare by reducing coffee price risk faced by individual farmers. By constructing a typology of six different types of coffee farmers and developing a forecasting model, the authors show that more risk-averse farmers would prefer to buy the insurance contract than those with lower risk aversion. The subjective assessments analysis also show that Honduran coffee producers have optimistic expectations for coffee prices and appear to underestimate the variability of coffee prices.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20347

Assessing the Farm Level Impacts of Yield and Revenue Insurance: an Expected Value-Variance Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Berg,   Ernst.
This paper investigates the farm level impacts of multiple peril yield and revenue insurance in an expected value-variance framework. The analysis is conducted using stochastic simulation jointly with numerical optimisation. Simulation is used to compute the means and variances of revenues as affected by the insurance schemes under consideration. In a second step these results are incorporated in a whole-farm programming approach, which optimises a portfolio that consists of crop production and insurance activities. The results of a case study indicate that from the farmer's point of view there is an incentive to buy multiple peril crop insurance, because it significantly reduces the variability of income. The risk reduction through insurance in turn leads...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Risk management; Portfolio selection; Stochastic programming; Expected value-variance analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2002
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24834

Components of Grain Futures Price Volatility
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Karali,   Berna; Thurman,   Walter N.
We analyze the determinants of daily futures price volatility in corn, soybeans, wheat, and oats markets from 1986 to 2007. Combining the information from simultaneously traded contracts, a generalized least squares method is implemented that allows us to clearly distinguish among time-to-delivery effects, seasonality, calendar trend, and volatility persistence. We find strong evidence of time-to-delivery (Samuelson) effects and systematic seasonal components with volatility increasing prior to harvest times— an indirect confirmation of the theory of storage.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Futures markets; Samuelson effect; Seasonality; Time to maturity; Volatility; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/93205

INCORPORATING THE IMPACTS OF UNCERTAIN FIELDWORK TIME ON WHOLE-FARM RISK-RETURN LEVELS: A TARGET MOTAD APPROACH
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Misra,   Sukant K.; Spurlock,   Stanley R.
Given an equipment complement, a specific crop mix has a probability distribution for whole-farm net returns. Increasing crop acreage while holding the set of equipment constant will reduce fixed costs per acre, but it will also increase the length of time required to complete crucial field operations such as planting and harvesting. Thus, the probability of encountering weather-related delays in fieldwork will increase. This increase in delays may cause a decline in yields and changes in the distribution of net returns. This paper develops a Target MOTAD model capable of capturing intra-year impacts on profit that arise from the timing of planting and harvesting operations as well as inter-year impacts on profits that are due to variations in economic and...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1991
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30056

Review on Suitability of Available LCIA Methodologies for Assessing Environmental Impact of the Food Sector
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Amani,   Pegah; Schiefer,   Gerhard.
Production, processing, distribution, and consumption of a wide variety of products in the food sector have different ranges of environmental impacts. Methodologies used in environmental impact assessment differ in which set of impact categories is covered and which models are used to assess them. In the food sector, life cycle assessment results are mostly presented without any clear distinction of the principles applied to selecting the relevant methodology. In this paper, the most relevant life cycle impact assessment methodologies are determined from the list of recommended methodologies published recently in the international reference life cycle data system (ILCD) handbook. The range of the relevant impacts covered is considered as the main indicator...
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Food chain sustainability; Environmental impact; Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA); LCIA methodologies; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121858

Uncertainty aversion in Australian regulation of agricultural gene technology
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gray,   Emily M.; Ahmadi-Esfahani,   Fredoun Z.
There is potential for over-provision of environmental harms and under-provision of environmental benefits associated with GM crops. As a result, strong public regulation is needed to ensure that full social values are considered. However, one reason for opposition to GM crops is a lack of public trust in regulatory institutions and science, and the limited opportunities afforded to public-participation and nonscientific concerns. We aim to demonstrate the trade-off between social cost and managing the risks of gene flow arising from environmental release of GM canola in Australia, using the framework of a probabilistic risk assessment and safety-rule decision mechanism.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Safety-rule; Uncertainty; Biotechnology regulation; Canola; Crop Production/Industries; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6045

Alternatives to Risk Management: Confronting Conventional Wisdom (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Juday,   Dave.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8108

Is a Friend in Need a Friend Indeed? Inclusion and Exclusion in Mutual Insurance Networks in Southern Ghana
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Goldstein,   Markus; de Janvry,   Alain; Sadoulet,   Elisabeth.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25025

Exits Among U.S. Burley Tobacco Growers After the End of the Federal Tobacco Program
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tiller,   Kelly; Feleke,   Shiferaw T.; Starnes,   Jane H.
This study explores the relationship between family/farm characteristics and the probability of exiting burley tobacco farming in Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia. Following the termination of the federal tobacco program in 2004, 54% of burley tobacco–growing households in Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia exited burley tobacco farming by 2006. Tobacco yield, tobacco farm cash receipts, tobacco price, off-farm employment, and farm size are the most dominant variables discriminating between exiting and surviving tobacco farms. Data for this study came from a mail survey of burley tobacco producers in Tennessee, Virginia, and North Carolina in May 2006.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Burley tobacco; Exit; Federal tobacco program; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Financial Economics; Land Economics/Use; Risk and Uncertainty; C25; Q12; Q18.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90674

Modeling Pork Supply Response and Price Volatility: The Case of Greece
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rezitis,   Anthony N.; Stavropoulos,   Konstantinos S.
This paper examines the supply response of the Greek pork market. A GARCH process is used to estimate expected price and price volatility, while price and supply equations are estimated jointly. In addition to the standard GARCH model, several different symmetric, asymmetric, and nonlinear GARCH models are estimated. The empirical results indicate that among the estimated GARCH models, the quadratic NAGARCH model seems to better describe producers’ price volatility, which was found to be an important risk factor of the supply response function of the Greek pork market. Furthermore, the empirical findings show that feed price is an important cost factor of the supply response function and that high uncertainty restricts the expansion of the Greek pork...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Asymmetry; GARCH; Pork supply; Price volatility; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis; International Development; Risk and Uncertainty; C510; D200; Q110.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48764

Catastrophic crop insurance effectiveness: does it make a difference how yield losses are conditioned?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bokusheva,   Raushan; Conradt,   Sarah.
The study evaluates the effectiveness of a catastrophic drought-index insurance developed by applying two alternative methods - the standard regression analysis and the copula approach. Most empirical analyses obtain estimates of the dependence of crop yields on weather by employing linear regression. By doing so, they assume that the sensitivity of yields to weather remains constant over the whole distribution of the weather variable and can be captured by the effect of the weather index on the yield conditional mean. In our study we evaluate, whether the prediction of farm yield losses can be done more accurately by conditioning yields on extreme realisations of a weather index. Therefore, we model the dependence structure between yields and weather by...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Catastrophic insurance; Weather-based insurance; Copula; Risk and Uncertainty; C18; Q14.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122443

Insurance of crops in Kazakhstan, the analysis of the possibilities for effective risk management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bokusheva,   Raushan; Heidelbach,   Olaf; Kussaiynov,   Talgat.
В предлагаемой книге рассматривается сельскохозяйственное страхование как инструмент стабилизации доходов сельскохозяйственных предприни- мателей и обеспечения устойчивого развития отрасли. В ней приводится сравнительный анализ различных страховых схем в растениеводстве с точки зрения их приемлемости для условий современной экономики Казахстана. Книга подготовлена на базе результатов проекта «Страхование сельскохозяйственных посевов в Казахстане: Поиск эффективных инструментов стабилизации доходов в сельском хозяйстве», проводившегося в период с апреля 2003 г. по декабрь 2006 г. Институтом аграрного развития в странах Центральной и Восточной Европы (IAMO, Германия) в сотрудничестве с Казахским государственным агротехническим универ- ситетом (Астана)....
Tipo: Book
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/92326

"No-Till" Farming Is a Growing Practice
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Horowitz,   John K.; Ebel,   Robert M.; Ueda,   Kohei.
Most U.S. farmers prepare their soil for seeding and weed and pest control through tillage—plowing operations that disturb the soil. Tillage practices affect soil carbon, water pollution, and farmers’ energy and pesticide use, and therefore data on tillage can be valuable for understanding the practice’s role in reaching climate and other environmental goals. In order to help policymakers and other interested parties better understand U.S. tillage practices and, especially, those practices’ potential contribution to climate-change efforts, ERS researchers compiled data from the Agricultural Resource Management Survey and the National Resources Inventory-Conservation Effects Assessment Project’s Cropland Survey. The data show that approximately 35.5 percent...
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Tillage; No-till; Agricultural Resource Management Survey; ARMS; U.S. crop practices; National Resources Inventory-Conservation Effects Assessment Project; NRI-CEAP; Carbon baseline; Carbon sequestration; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96636

A Globally Flexible Model for Crop Yields Under Weather Risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Cooper,   Joseph C.; Wallander,   Steven.
The literature on climate change and crop yields recognizes the need to allow for highly non-linear marginal effects.  This study combines these two areas of the literature by using Flexible Fourier Transforms (FFT’s) to ensure flexibility for both the time trend and the weather effects.  This study also illustrates how FFT’s can be combined with quantile regression (QR) to provide both robustness to outliers and information on the scale effects of time and weather variables. For U.S. county level data on corn, soybeans, and winter wheat, we estimate the relationship between yield and temperature and precipitation using a traditional parametric expected-yield estimator, our quantile-FFT regression evaluated at the median, and our QR-FFT regression that...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop yield distributions; Flexible fourier transforms; Quantile regression; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103560

Determinants of the Use of Information: An Empirical Study of German Pig Farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Arens,   Ludwig; Plumeyer,   Cord-Herwig; Theuvsen,   Ludwig.
International Food and Agribusiness Management Review is published quarterly by IFAMA. www.ifama.org
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Chain-wide communication; Information use; Animal health management; Pork production; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Livestock Production/Industries; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120858

INSTABILITY AND RISK IN U.S. AGRICULTURE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Goodwin,   Barry K.
The U.S. government has been extensively involved in providing income support and risk management policies for U.S. farmers over the last 65 years. Risk management policies have included crop insurance, disaster relief, and in recent years, revenue insurance. Recent policy changes signaled an intention on the part of policy makers, at least in principle, to move U.S. agriculture toward the free market. Low commodity prices and localized droughts, however, have brought about renewed calls for direct income assistance. In this paper, we discuss the role of the government in providing policies to address income shortfalls and risk in agriculture. Problems and inconsistencies with policies are identified and discussed.  Implications for international markets...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agriculture; Crop insurance; Government policy; Risk management; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14700

The Debt Ratio and Risk
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Svendsen,   Soren.
The agricultural development has caused still bigger and more expensive farms in Denmark. The debt ratio therefore has increased and has become a severe problem for the farmer. The magnitude of the debt ratio is the highest in Europe. The objective of this study is to analyse the possibility to optimise the debt ratio. In order to analyse the debt ratio 1200 financial statements have been investigated. The study confirms that it is impossible to optimise the debt ratio in line with Modigliani &amp; Miller. On the other hand the study points out an inoptimal range, which is in accordance with the 'Trade-off Theory of Capital Structure'. That is on the high end of the scale. Finally the study demonstrates a significant correlation between the debt ratio and...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24384

A MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE IN EVALUATING ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION PROBLEMS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Islam,   Zahirul; Turvey,   Calum G.; Hoy,   Michael.
The main motivation for this paper is the recognition of the fact that asymmetric information is the form of moral hazard and adverse selection results in sizeable efficiency losses.  These costs are passed back to producers in the form of excessively high premium rates and also passed back to the government via the crop insurance subsidy program.  A secondary motivation stems from a recent debate in the literature regarding the specific effects of moral hazard on agricultural input use.  Conventional wisdom suggests that moral hazard will induce producers to reduce input usage.  A competing hypothesis has emerged which suggests that moral hazard may induce producers to increase their usage or risk increasing inputs. The main objective of this paper was to...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34103

UNCERTAIN YIELDS IN SECTORAL WELFARE ANALYSIS: AN APPLICATION TO GLOBAL WARMING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lambert,   David K.; McCarl,   Bruce A.; He,   Quifen; Kaylen,   Michael S.; Rosenthal,   Wesley; Chang,   Ching-Cheng; Nayda,   W.I.
Agriculture operates in an uncertain environment. Yields, prices, and resource usage can change dramatically from year to year. However, most analyses of the agricultural sector, at least those using mathematical programming methods, assume decision making is based on average yields, ignoring yield variability. This study examines how explicit consideration of stochastic yield outcomes influence a sector analysis. We develop a model that can be used for stochastic sector analysis. We extend the risk framework developed by Hazell and others to incorporate discrete yield outcomes as well as consumption activities dependent upon yield outcomes. An empirical application addresses a comparison between sector analysis with and without considerations of the...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural sector analysis; Global warming; Partial equilibrium models; Stochastic programming; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1995
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15257

Risk Efficiency in the Interpretation of Agricultural Production Research
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Anderson,   Jock R.
Risk is often perceived by farmers as being more formidable in new technologies emanating from agricultural research than in more traditional practices. Consequently risk may tend to act as an impediment to adoption of improved practices as well as a general friction on efficient use of resources. Research and extension workers in agriculture may thus wish to identify technologies that are not only "improved" (more productive and profitable on the average) but are also less risky in that they would be preferred by "risk-averse" farmers. The extent to which this identification can proceed in the absence of knowledge of farmers' individual attitudes to risk is explored here through application of the concepts of stochastic dominance.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1974
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7299

THE ROLE OF AREA-YIELD CROP INSURANCE IN FARMERS' ADJUSTMENT AGAINST RISK IN A DRYLAND REGION OF PORTUGAL
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Serrao,   Amilcar; Coelho,   Luis.
This research develops a mathematical programming model to maximize the expected utility of the farmers' wealth-producing cereals in the Alentejo dryland region of Portugal, and it is used to determine the premium rate that crop farmers are willing to pay for reducing the variability of their incomes, and the Portuguese government subsidy of the premium rate in the case where the farmer is not willing to pay the totality of this.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21841

Forecasting Corn Futures Volatility in the Presence of Long Memory, Seasonality and Structural Change
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wang,   Xiaoyang; Garcia,   Philip.
Price volatility in the corn market has changed considerably globalization and stronger linkages to the energy complex. Using data from January 1989 through December 2009, we estimate and forecast the volatility in the corn market using futures daily prices.  Estimates in a Fractional Integrated GARCH framework identify the importance of long memory, seasonality, and structural change.  Recursively generated forecasts for up to 40-day horizons starting in January 2005 highlight the importance of seasonality, and long memory specifications which perform well at more distant horizons particularly with rising volatility. The forecast benefits of allowing for structural change in an adaptive framework are more difficult to identify except at more distant...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Corn price volatility; Long memory; Seasonality; Structural change; Forecasting; Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103749

PRODUCTION PRACTICE ALTERNATIVES FOR INCOME AND SUITABLE FIELD DAY RISK MANAGEMENT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dillon,   Carl R.
Production risk includes yield and days suitable for fieldwork variability.  Both were modeled using biophysical simulation and a mean-variance, chance-constrained mathematical programming formulation representing a Kentucky corn, soybean, and wheat producer.  While crop diversification, planting date, and maturity group can be used to reduce the types of risk considered, interaction between the two influences how production practices are used to manage risk.  For the conditions studied, plant population alterations were less effective for risk reduction of either component.  The study provides evidence of the importance of the consideration of both elements of production risk in whole farm planning.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Days suitable for fieldwork; Mathematical programming; Risk management; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15382

Risk Management of Daily Tourist Tax Revenues for the Maldives
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: McAleer,   Michael; Shareef,   Riaz; da Veiga,   Bernardo.
International tourism is the principal economic activity for Small Island Tourism Economies (SITEs). There is a strongly predictable component of international tourism, specifically the government revenue received from taxes on international tourists, but it is difficult to predict the number of international tourist arrivals which, in turn, determines the magnitude of tax revenue receipts. A framework is presented for risk management of daily tourist tax revenues for the Maldives, which is a unique SITE because it relies entirely on tourism for its economic and social development. As these receipts from international tourism are significant financial assets to the economies of SITEs, the time-varying volatility of international tourist arrivals and their...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12128

Advanced Methods for Dose-Response Assessment: Bayesian Approaches - Final Report
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wilson,   James D.
Resources for the Future (RFF), in conjunction with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the Society for Risk Analysis, and the Electric Power Research Institute, held a workshop Sept. 18-20, 2000, at the RFF Conference Center in Washington, DC. The intent was to discuss how Bayesian approaches could be useful in improving techniques for estimating exposure-response functions. Ten distinguished scholars from a range of fields (medical biostatistics, decision sciences, environmental engineering, and toxicology) served as faculty. Approximately 80 people attended the workshop. Bayesian methods have been applied to a variety of problems in biomedical research and environmental risk analysis, including design of clinical trials, estimation of exposures to...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Bayesian analysis; Dose-response; Regulation; Risk assessment; Arsenic; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10754

Managing environmental flow objectives under uncertainty: The case of the lower Goulburn River floodplain, Victoria
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Heaney,   Anna; Beare,   Stephen; Brennan,   Donna C.
The regulation of river systems to meet water demands for irrigation in the southern Murray Darling Basin has changed the timing and the volume of the natural pattern of flows. Australian governments have committed to restoring, in part, winter and spring flow regimes to preserve and enhance the riverine environment. These changes will involve trade-offs against the foregone returns to agriculture and between different environmental objectives. To better understand these trade-offs, environmental flow objectives are specified as a change in the inter-arrival time distributions of winter and spring flow events, ranging from brief flooding events to the inundation of flood plains and wetlands over several weeks. Expected costs, and hence the trade-offs,...
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124315

RISK MANAGEMENT TOOLS IN PRECISION AGRICULTURE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Powers,   Laura; Dillon,   Carl R.; Isaacs,   Steven G.; Shearer,   Scott A.
The objective of this project is to develop economic, risk management decision aids for precision agriculture practitioners to identify temporal risk spatially from production.  Break-even analysis, coefficient of variation and a mean variance framework are used to identify risk.  An interpretation of the resulting risk maps will also be presented.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35129

Reducing Budget Risk by Using Probabilities
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: van Blokland,   P.J.
This paper emphasises the importance of budgeting for a family run firm. It concentrates on the inadequacy of the typical budget forecast that is shown to firm owners and lenders. This original budget is changed to a useful indicator of the firm's future by incorporating risk, using probabilities and a decision tree. Without this incorporation the firm can misallocate its anticipated net income between family salary, firm re-investment and debt reduction. The final budget, adjusted to the individual firm's risk calculations, produces a weighted net income. This number is a more realistic one for allocating salary, investment and principal.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24352

Institutional Impacts on Producers' Grain Price Risk Management Decisions: A Cross-Country Comparative
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Woolverton,   Andrea E.; Sykuta,   Michael E.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9905

Market Integration for Shrimp and the Effect of Catastrophic Events
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Harri,   Ardian; Muhammad,   Andrew; Jones,   Keithly G.
Seasonal unit-root testing and seasonal cointegration methods are employed to investigate the price transmission in U.S. shrimp markets. ARIMA and Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) are used to identify the effect of catastrophic events on individual price series in one region and the spillover effects in the price series for other regions. Results showed that a cointegrating relation exists between neighboring states, specifically between Alabama and Mississippi and Louisiana and Texas. Cointegrating relations also exist between the Gulf States and the Pacific region, but not the Atlantic region, and the price of imported shrimp is cointegrated with each of the domestic shrimp price series. Finally, while Katrina had an effect on shrimp prices in Gulf...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Catastrophic events; Cointegration; Market integration; Seasonal unit-roots; Spillover effects; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty; C13; Q11; Q13.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61585

Index Insurance, Production Practices, and Probabilistic Climate Forecasts
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Carriquiry,   Miguel A.; Osgood,   Daniel E.
The failure of the development of commercially viable traditional crop insurance products and innovations in financial markers has fed a renewed interest in the search for alternatives to help producers in developing countries manage their risk exposure. Salient among these is the proposal of several index insurance schemes against weather events. Among the basic tenets are that the presence of index insurance allows producers to intensify their operations and reduce the risks of default and hence may induce creditors to offer loans at affordable rates. The two factors combined are touted as key to help producers in developing countries escape poverty traps. Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts create challenges for the design and effective...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Climate forecast; Index insurance; Input Decisions; Risk Management; Weather risks; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21463

EFFECTS OF FEDERAL RISK MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS ON LAND ALLOCATION AND INPUT USE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Seo,   Sangtaek; Mitchell,   Paul D.; Leatham,   David J.
We analyze the effects of crop insurance and the Marketing Loan Program on optimal nitrogen use and acreage allocation for a case cotton-sorghum farm in Texas.  A mathematical programming model is used to simulate the optimal nitrogen fertilizer rate, crop acreage allocation, coverage level, and price election factor, along with participation in the crop insurance (APH and CRC) and the Marketing Loan Program for both crops.  Results show that current insurance programs increase the optimal fertilizer rate 1-3% and increase the optimal cotton acreage 16-129%.  The Marketing Loan Program slightly changes optimal fertilizer rates and increases optimal cotton acreage an additional 1-9%.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20160

Crop-Based Biofuel Production under Acreage Constraints and Uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Baker,   Mindy L.; Hayes,   Dermot J.; Babcock,   Bruce A.
A myriad of policy issues and questions revolve around understanding the bioeconomy. To gain insight, we develop a stochastic and dynamic general equilibrium model and capture the uncertain nature of key variables such as crude oil prices and commodity yields. We also incorporate acreage limitations on key feedstocks such as corn, soybeans, and switchgrass. We make standard assumptions that investors are rational and engage in biofuel production only if returns exceed what they can expect to earn from alternative investments. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 mandates the use of 36 billion gallons of biofuels by 2022, with significant requirements for cellulosic biofuel and biodiesel production. We calculate the level of tax credits required...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Biodiesel; Biofuels; Cellulosic; Dynamic; Ethanol; General equilibrium; Monte Carlo; Market; Crop Production/Industries; Political Economy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6314

Traceability and Labelling of GMOs as a Framework for Risk Management in European Regulation
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Charlier,   Christophe.
Traceability and labelling are required by European regulation for food produced from GMOs. For this regulation one of the main advantages of traceability consists in providing information that should allow the precise withdrawal of products from the production process. This paper tests this idea. For that purpose, it seeks to establish whether the mandatory traceability will create an information set refined enough to locate GMO products in the production process. In this respect, the limits of the European regulation are pointed out. It is shown however that results are improved as soon as labelling is introduced alongside the requirement of traceability.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Traceability; Labelling; GMO; Risk management; Food safety; Risk and Uncertainty; I18; K32; Q18.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24700

Risk preferences of Kwazulu-Natal commercial sugar cane farmers
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ferrer,   Stuart R.D.; Hoag,   Dana L.; Nieuwoudt,   W. Lieb.
A direct elicitation of utility approach is used to measure risk preferences of commercial sugar cane farmers in the Mzimkulu, Sezela and Eston sugarmill areas of KwaZulu-Natal. Arrow- Pratt absolute risk aversion coefficients are elicited, adjusted for both range and scale of the data, to allow both inter and intra study comparisons of risk preferences. Of 53 farmers surveyed, two refused to participate in lottery games for religious or moral reasons. Of the remainder 57.2 percent were risk averse, 29.6 percent risk neutral and 13.2 percent risk preferring. On average they were risk averse although risk preferences vary significantly amongst individuals. Regression analysis indicates that on average sugar cane farmers are averse to a possible loss in...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1997
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54447

Pastoral Farmer Goals and Intensification Strategies
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Small,   Bruce; Murphy-McIntosh,   Andrea; Waters,   Warwick; Tarbotton,   Ian S.; Botha,   Neels.
Focus groups were held with four pastoral sectors (sheep, dairy, deer, and beef) to investigate intensification strategies available to each sector. Focus groups first identified drivers of intensification in their sector, then identified the strategies they perceived as available, and evaluated the identified strategies in terms of favourability. For a researcher selected intensification strategy in each pastoral sector, benefits, barriers and solutions, and the relationship between farmer goals and the selected strategy was examined. The three main drivers of intensification in the sheep industry were profit, higher land values and return on capital. The researcher chosen strategy, high fecundity sheep, was viewed by the focus group as having benefits of...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Land Economics/Use; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98513

EVALUATING RISK MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES FOR INDIANA CROP PRODUCERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rios,   Ana R.; Patrick,   George F.
Impacts of the expansion of crop insurance alternatives, increases in premium subsidies, and the 2002 Farm Bill are included in an evaluation of risk management strategies.  Levels and variability of net farm revenue are analyzed by several criteria.  Results indicate that effective strategies differ among geographical areas of Indiana.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22195

Coherent Quantitative Analysis of Risks in Agribusiness: Case of Ukraine
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tarasov,   Arthur.
Modern methods of quantitative risk analysis, specifically value-at-risk and expected shortfall approach, provide comprehensive and coherent risk evaluation throughout entire distribution of outcomes and can take agricultural business from the realm of uncertainty to specific, quantified risks. Monte Carlo simulation with autocorrelation of standard deviation shows the best results in risk modeling and is used for this research. The analysis showed that production risk is systemic within climatic regions of Ukraine with coefficients of correlation ranging from 0.25 to 0.85. Yield correlation among crops in several oblasts is low to negative, creating opportunities for diversification. However, positive price-yield correlation is dominant for agricultural...
Tipo: Article
Palavras-chave: Production risk; Price risk; Value-at-risk in agriculture; Expected shortfall; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; GA; IN.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120240

EFFICIENCY CRITERIA AND RISK AVERSION: AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Wetzstein,   Michael E.; Szmedra,   Philip I.; McClendon,   Ronald W.; Edwards,   David M.
A conceptual link among mean-variance (EV), stochastic dominance (SD), and mean-risk (ET), and Gini mean difference (EG) is established for determining risk efficient decision sets. The theoretical relations among the various efficiency criteria are then empirically demonstrated with a soybean and wheat double-crop simulation model. Empirical results associated with extended Gini mean difference (EEG) and extended mean-absolute Gini (EET) for risk analysis are encouraging.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1988
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29716

Innovation behaviour at farm level: Selection and identification
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Sauer,   Johannes; Zilberman,   David.
Using a squential logit model and a mixed-effects logistic regression approach this empirical study investigates factors for the adoption of automatic milking technology (AMS) at the farm level accounting for problems of sequential sample selection and behaviour identification. The results suggest the importance of the farmer’s risk perception, significant effects of peer-group behaviour, and a positive impact of previous innovation experiences.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Squential logit model; Automatic milking technology (AMS); Livestock Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53276

A COMPARISON OF RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR INDIANA GRAIN PRODUCERS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Rios,   Ana R.; Patrick,   George F.
Crop insurance and pre-harvest pricing strategies were analyzed for all years and "years following an normal crop year" from 1986 to 2001 in three counties.  Although pre-harvest marketing strategies had the highest certainty equivaenls, net farm revenues were lower and crop insurances were more common strategies following normal crop years.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20192

FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES IN A WHOLE-FARM SETTING
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pederson,   Glenn D.; Bertelsen,   Diane.
Risk programming and simulation methods are used to analyze the opportunity to reduce whole-farm risk in a diversified cash crop farm through reduced leverage and/or adjustments in rental arrangements.  These two financial strategies are shown to extend the ability of the farm operator to manage downside risk beyond the singular effects of a diversified farm plan.  The analysis indicates that a trade-off occurs between these strategies, but that the reduction of debt has a greater impact on the distributions of net cash flow (before taxes) and outstanding term debt.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1986
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/32533

Do Direct Payments Influence Farmers' Hail Insurance Decisions?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Finger,   Robert; Lehmann,   Niklaus.
We analyze determinants of hail insurance use of Swiss farmers, covering the period 1990-2009 using FADN panel data. Mixed effect logistic regression models are estimated to identify the most important farm and farmer characteristics that determine insurance use. In addition, information on local hail risk is taken into account in these models. It shows that larger farms, with specialization on crop production, and with larger local hail risks are more likely to adopt the hail insurance. Moreover, insurance users are usually older and better educated. Since the early 1990s, Swiss agricultural policy has reduced price support and introduced general and ecological direct payments. This has led to a much higher importance of direct payments for farmers’...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114355

The Asymmetric Cycling of U.S. Soybeans and Brazilian Coffee Prices: An Opportunity for Improved Forecasting and Understanding of Price Behavior
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Ramirez,   Octavio A.
The behavior of agricultural commodity markets can arguably result in markedly asymmetric price cycles, that is, downward cycles of substantially different length and breadth than upward cycles. This study assesses whether asymmetric-cycle models can enhance the understanding of the dynamics and provide for a better forecasting of U.S. soybeans and Brazilian coffee prices. The forecasts from asymmetric cycle models are found to be substantially mode precise than those obtained from standard autoregressive models. The asymmetric cycle models also provide useful insights on the markedly different dynamics of the upward versus the downward cycles exhibited by the prices of these two commodities.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Asymmetric cycles; Coffee prices; Soybean prices; Threshold autoregressive models; Time series forecasting; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; C22; C53.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48760

ASSESSING PEASANT FARMERS’ RISK ATTITUDES AND FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE DECISIONS ON RISKY ALTERNATIVES: A CASE STUDY IN THE BORDER REGION OF SOUTH AFRICA
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bester,   B.J.; Belete,   Abenet; Kelembe,   S.G.
The experimental method of measuring risk attitudes, using four hypothetical gambling situations, was used to elicit information from peasant farmers in the Border region of South Africa. The main intention was to examine peasant farmers’ attitudes towards risk and the social and economic factors that influence these. Based on the results, peasant farmers in the study area are risk averse. Factors such as level of formal education and annual household income were found to have significant influences on peasant farmer's responses towards making decisions on risky alternatives.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54877

DEMAND FOR CROP INSURANCE BY ORGANIC CORN AND SOYBEAN  FARMERS IN THREE MAJOR PRODUCING STATES
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Singerman,   Ariel; Hart,   Chad E.; Lence,   Sergio H.
A survey of organic grain and oilseed producers in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin was conducted to collect information about their demographic characteristics, production and price risk management strategies, yields and losses, and crop insurance decisions. The data are analyzed using a discrete choice model to establish which variables influence organic producers’ decision of whether to purchase crop insurance and also which ones affect the insurance product choice when applicable. The study describes the risk profiles of organic producers, and analyzes whether significant variations exist between organic and conventional methods of production so as to quantitatively determine the differential production risk associated with organic production. This...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Organic farming; Organic production; Agricultural and Food Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Q18.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60935

The Effects of ITQ Management on Fishermen’s Welfare When the Processing Sector is Imperfectly Competitive
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: McEvoy,   David M.; Brandt,   Sylvia J.; Lavoie,   Nathalie; Anders,   Sven M.
In this paper we use a general model of imperfect competition to predict welfare changes within an open-access fishery transitioning to individual transferable quota (ITQ) management. Although related research has explored the effects of market power in the harvesting sector on ITQ performance, none have considered the implications of an imperfectly competitive processing sector. This study addresses this question specifically in the context of the Atlantic herring fishery, although its implications are relevant to all fisheries with similar industry structure. Our results show that ITQs could have a negative impact on fishermen’s welfare when processors have market power and the cap on aggregate harvest is binding or becomes binding with the...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: ITQ; Imperfect competition; Welfare analysis; Fisheries; Risk and Uncertainty; D43; Q22; Q28; L13.
Ano: 2007
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7389

Risk programming and sparse data: how to get more reliable results
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Hardaker,   J. Brian; Lien,   Gudbrand D.; Van Asseldonk,   Marcel A.P.M.; Richardson,   James W.; Hegrenes,   Agnar.
Because relevant historical data for farms are inevitably sparse, most risk programming studies rely on few observations. We discuss how to use available information to derive an appropriate multivariate distribution function that can be sampled for a more complete representation of the possible risks in riskbased models. For the particular example of a Norwegian mixed livestock and crop farm, the solution is shown to be unstable with few states, although the cost of picking a sub-optimal plan declines with increases in number of states by Latin Hypercube sampling.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk programming; States of nature; Sparse data; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44051

Costs of Producing Energy in Dutch Dairy Chains
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Gebrezgabher,   Solomie A.; Meuwissen,   Miranda P.M.; Oude Lansink,   Alfons G.J.M.
By 2020, Dutch dairy chains envisage to be self-sufficient with regard to energy used by dairy farms and dairy processors. This would require dairy farms to produce 25 PJ per year, possibly by a combination of wind, solar and biogas. Current analyses focus on biogas. To evaluate the project’s feasibility we estimated the expected technical and financial performance of 4 types of business models, i.e. “CHP-farm”, “CHP-large”, “green gas” and “central upgrading”. Data stem among others from 23 biogas plants in the Netherlands. Anticipating that CHP-models and green gas models occur with a likelihood of 40% and 60% respectively, the total number of biogas plants at dairy farms would amount to 463. There would however be an expected deficit of Euro 157 million...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Green electricity; Green gas; Empirical data; Technical performance; Financial performance; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59116

Pricing Options on Commodity Futures: The Role of Weather and Storage
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bozic,   Marin; Fortenbery,   T. Randall.
Options on agricultural futures are popular financial instruments used for agricultural price risk management and to speculate on future price movements. Poor performance of Black’s classical option pricing model has stimulated many researchers to introduce pricing models that are more consistent with observed option premiums. However, most models are motivated solely from the standpoint of the time series properties of futures prices and need for improvements in forecasting and hedging performance. In this paper we propose a novel arbitrage pricing model motivated from the economic theory of optimal storage, and consistent with implications of plant physiology on the importance of weather stress. We introduce a pricing model for options on futures based...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Arbitrage pricing model; Options on futures; Generalized lambda distribution; Theory of storage; Skewness; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Financial Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; G13; Q11; Q14.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103638

BASIS RISK FOR RICE
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Lord,   Yoshie Saito; Turner,   Steven C.
The objective of this paper is to develop a cross hedging model for rice that minimizes basis risk and accounts for the existence of the nonstationary nature of basis.  Basis is treated as an endogenous variable and model for basis risk are developed.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1998
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20886

Uncertainty and Producer Fed Cattle Marketing Decisions: Theory and Evidence
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Fausti,   Scott W.; Lange,   Brent.
This article has been submitted to the CJAE.
Tipo: Report
Palavras-chave: Quality uncertainty; Risk; Market structure; Slaughter cattle markets; Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; D40; D81; Q10.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102692

Age, Health, and the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions: A Contingent Valuation Survey in Japan
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Itaoka,   Kenshi; Krupnick,   Alan J.; Akai,   Makoto; Alberini,   Anna; Cropper,   Maureen L.; Simon,   Nathalie B.
A contingent valuation survey was conducted in Sizuoka, Japan, to estimate the willingness to pay (WTP) for reductions in the risk of dying and calculate the value of statistical life (VSL) for use in environmental policy in Japan. Special attention was devoted to the effects of age and health characteristics on WTP. We find that the VSLs are somewhat lower (103 to 344 million yen) than those found in the virtually identical survey applied in some developed countries. These values were subject to a variety of validity tests, which they generally passed. We find that the WTP for those over age 70 is lower than that for younger adults, but that this effect is eliminated in multiple regression. Rather, when accounting for other covariates, we find that WTP...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Willingness to pay; Value of statistical life; Mortality risk; Contingent valuation; Age; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2005
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10829

Ad Valorem Equivalent in the WTO
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Babili,   Mahmoud.
How can Syria benefit from converting specific tariffs into AVEs?
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Ad valorem; WTO; Multilateral negotiations; Syria; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48586

INNOVATIVE TOOLS TO ADDRESS DROUGHT RISK IN GRAZING LANDS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Baez,   Karen; Iglesias,   Eva.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114232

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND RISK MANAGEMENT: AN APPLICATION TO THE ECONOMICS OF CORN PRODUCTION
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Kim,   Kwansoo; Chavas,   Jean-Paul.
The paper investigates the linkages between technological change and production risk, with an application to corn. The effects of technology on risk exposure are characterized based on the properties of the risk premium. We define technological progress to be risk-increasing (risk-decreasing) if it increases (decreases) the relative risk premium. The analysis is applied to panel data from Wisconsin research stations. Conditional moments (including mean, variance and skewness) of corn yield, grain moisture and corn profit are estimated for different sites. We investigate how the trade-off between expected return and the risk premium varies over time and over space. The empirical results indicate that technological progress contributes to reducing the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20605

Procedures for a New Producer to Establish Actual Production History for Crop Insurance Coverage
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Johnson,   James B.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2003
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/29203

Revisiting N fertilisation rates in low-rainfall grain cropping regions of Australia: A risk analysis
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Monjardino,   Marta; McBeath,   T.; Brennan,   Lisa E.; Llewellyn,   Rick S.
Mallee farmers minimize downside risk in dry seasons by applying low rates of nitrogen (N) fertiliser to their cereal crops. The opportunity to respond to and capitalize on the better years is further limited as most inputs are applied upfront at sowing. We used an economic-risk decision model to identify a range of tactical N fertilisation options that increase net returns, while minimising risk for farmers with different risk attitudes. Importantly, we concluded that when accounting for long-term risks affecting farmers, the use of higher N rates can play a risk-reducing role in a highly variable environment like the Mallee.
Tipo: Presentation
Palavras-chave: Nitrogen; Risk; Variance; Crop simulation; Economic net returns; Decision analysis; Zone management; Monte Carlo; Mallee; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2012
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124339

Tart Cherry Yield and Economic Response to Alternative Planting Densities
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Me-Nsope,   Nathalie Mongue.
The study investigates the economic response of tart cherry yields to planting density using an unbalanced longitudinal yield data from tart cherry orchards in Northwest Michigan. The relationship between tart cherry yield and tree age is specified as a linear spline function and planting density interacts with tree age. A random effect method, treating block as random, is used to estimate the spline function. Stochastic simulation was used to estimate the mean and variance of the product of two random variables (price and yield), and the coefficient of variation was used as a measure of how much risk is involved in corn/soybeans production relative to tart cherries production. Estimates of the variance provided the discount factor (10%) and with yields...
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation
Palavras-chave: Tart cherries; Pricing; Planting density; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; D4; D24; L11.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/54502

THE IMPORTANCE OF USING FARM LEVEL RISK ESTIMATES IN CRP ENROLLMENT DECISIONS
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Bechtel,   Amos I.; Young,   Douglas L.
Easily accessible county data produced frontiers which substantially underestimated the reduction in risk by enrolling in the CRP.  Furthermore, the county yield data portrayed an unattainable level of utility for a moderately risk averse farmer.  Farm level data predicted CRP enrollment similar to actual enrollment in the study region.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1999
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35717

Agricultural Arbitrage, Adjustment Costs, and the Intensive Margin
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Tack,   Jesse B.; LaFrance,   Jeffrey T.
Farmland and capital are an important and rapidly expanding component of the agricultural economy, and empirical evidence suggests that these assets are quasi-fixed in that adjustment costs are incurred when holdings are altered. Increased interest in the rate of return for investing in farmland suggests that an important consideration is the effect of adjustment costs on this return. A novel theoretical model is developed that ties together contributions from the farmland pricing and adjustment cost literatures, and the first order conditions for a utility maximizing decision maker are rearranged into intertemporal arbitrage equations that are similar in spirit to traditional finance models. The common assumptions that land and capital are quasi-fixed...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Arbitrage; Adjustment Costs; Farmland; Asset Pricing; Capital; Cost Function; Risk; Production; Agricultural Finance; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2010
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/56412

STRATEGIC RISK MANAGEMENT BEHAVIOR: WHAT CAN UTILITY FUNCTIONS TELL US?
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Pennings,   Joost M.E.; Garcia,   Philip.
The validity of the utility concept, particularly in an expected utility framework, has been questioned because of its inability to predict revealed behavior. In this paper we focus on the global shape of the utility function instead of the local shape of the utility function. We examine the extent of heterogeneity in the global shape of the utility function of decision makers and test whether its shape predicts strategic risk management behavior. We assess the utility functions and relate them to strategic decisions for portfolio managers (N = 104) and hog farmers (N = 239). The research design allows us to examine the robustness of our results and the extent to which the results can be generalized. Furthermore, we assess the shape of the utility...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2004
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20388

IDENTIFICATION OF ECONOMIES OF SCOPE IN A STOCHASTIC PRODUCTION ENVIRONMENT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Curtis,   Rita E.; Sarmiento,   Camilo.
This paper extends the definition of economies of scope to multioutput firms that face an uncertain production environment.  Identification of economies of scope in this environment, however, requires separability assumptions on the technology. These identification restrictions are demonstrated in the paper, and for each identification restriction the definition of economies of scope is generalized to the case of uncertain production and risk aversion.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Production Risk; Multioutput; Production; Identification; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2001
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23676

The Structural Estimation of Principal-Agent Models by Least Squares: Evidence from Land Rental Markets in Madagascar (PowerPoint)
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Brown,   Zachary S.; Bellemare,   Marc F.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Modeling; Least squares; Madagascar; Land rental markets; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48908

Securitizing peanut production risk with catastrophe (CAT) bonds
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Epperson,   James E.
A catastrophe (CAT) bond is designed for peanut production as a means of transferring natural disaster risks from insurance purveyors to the global capital market. The CAT bond so designed is priced using state-level historical yields for peanut production in the southern part of the United States in the State of Georgia. The index triggering the CAT bond contract was based on percent deviation from state average yield. The principal finding of the study is that it appears feasible for crop insurance purveyors to issue insurance-linked securities. CAT bonds can reduce the variance of the loss ratio when issued optimally with regard to the number of bonds and contract specifications. CAT bonds could therefore be used in hedging catastrophic risk effectively...
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper
Palavras-chave: Insurance; Reinsurance; Pricing; Hedging; Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44512

THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNET IN PRODUCER MARKETING AND RISK MANAGEMENT
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Dial,   Joseph B.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2000
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19576

Measuring Technical Efficiency of Dairy Farms with Imprecise Data: A Fuzzy Data Envelopment Analysis Approach
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Mugera,   Amin W.
This article integrates fuzzy set theory in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) framework to compute technical efficiency scores when input and output data are imprecise. The underlying assumption in convectional DEA is that inputs and outputs data are measured with precision.  However, production agriculture takes place in an uncertain environment and, in some situations, input and output data may be imprecise.  We present an approach of measuring efficiency when data is known to lie within specified intervals and empirically illustrate this approach using a group of 34 dairy producers in Pennsylvania.  Compared to the convectional DEA scores that are point estimates, the computed fuzzy efficiency scores allow the decision maker to trace the performance of a...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation
Palavras-chave: Fuzzy set theory; Data Envelopment Analysis; Membership function; Α-cut level; Technical efficiency; Farm Management; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; D24; Q12; C02; C44; C61.
Ano: 2011
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103251

Alternative Model Selection Using Forecast Error Variance Decompositions in Wholesale Chicken Markets
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: McKenzie,   Andrew M.; Goodwin,   Harold L., Jr.; Carreira,   Rita I.
Although Vector Autoregressive models are commonly used to forecast prices, specification of these models remains an issue. Questions that arise include choice of variables and lag length. This article examines the use of Forecast Error Variance Decompositions to guide the econometrician’s model specification. Forecasting performance of Variance Autoregressive models, generated from Forecast Error Variance Decompositions, is analyzed within wholesale chicken markets. Results show that the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition approach has the potential to provide superior model selections to traditional Granger Causality tests.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Broiler markets; DAGs; Forecasting; Market structure; VAR; Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty; C53; D4; L1; Q00.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48750

Model Validation: An Overview with some Emphasis on Risk Models
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: McCarl,   Bruce A.
Model validation is a topic which has a long history in the literature This article attempts to focus much of the previous discussion upon agricultural economics models. True model validation is not possible. Nevertheless, model validation exercises improve the relevancy of models and strengthen the theoretical oasis for modelling. Procedures are given for conducting validation exercises and for dealing with models which fail such exercises. In addition. comments appear on considerations involved with the validation of risk models.
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 1984
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/12282

Management decisions on commercial sugarcane farms in KwaZulu-Natal: a focus on choice bracketing behaviour for risk management
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: MacNicol,   R.; Ortmann,   Gerald F.; Ferrer,   Stuart R.D.
The sugar industry is an important contributor to the South African (SA) economy, with average annual production estimated at 2.5 million tons of sugar. This study aims to quantify actual use of management instruments by a sample of commercial sugarcane farmers in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) that are commonly associated with risk management, and uses factor analysis to investigate the extent to which these farmers bracket their management decisions. Data were obtained in 2006 via personal interviews of a stratified random sample of 76 large-scale sugarcane farmers in two separate mill-supply areas of KZN. Respondents were asked questions regarding risk-related management strategies, including diversification of on-farm enterprises, investments and management time....
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Commercial sugarcane farms; KwaZulu-Natal; Choice bracketing behaviour; Risk management; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2008
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/5971

Scorecarding and Heat Mapping: Tools and Concepts for Assessing Strategic Uncertainty
Provedor de dados: 31
Autores: Detre,   Joshua D.; Briggeman,   Brian C.; Boehlje,   Michael; Gray,   Allan W.
The dramatic changes occurring throughout the agriculture industry are creating new and different uncertainties that result from a turbulent business climate. The objective of this paper is to present a methodology to understand, assess and evaluate, and manage strategic uncertainty. The approach is to present a mental model that frames assessment of strategic uncertainty from a potential and exposure perspective. Scorecarding and heat mapping assessment tools operationalize the mental model. Participants in an executive agribusiness educational workshop applied this mental model and the assessment tools to one of three hypothetical seed companies. The participants then provided an evaluation of the usefulness and effectiveness of uncertainty scorecarding...
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; Scorecarding; Strategic uncertainty; Heat mapping; Potential; Exposure; Likelihood; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2006
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8207

NAREA Awards
Provedor de dados: 31
NAREA Outstanding Master's Thesis Award, NAREA Master's Thesis Award of Merit, NAREA Distinguished Member Awards, NAREA Award for Outstanding Public Service Through Economics, and NAREA's Journal Article of the Year for 2008
Tipo: Journal Article
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; Industrial Organization; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Labor and Human Capital; Land Economics/Use; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing; Political Economy; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Public Economics; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession.
Ano: 2009
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55555